Interesting Stats By Bartoo This Morning

[ShotgunDawg]

I realize some of you think he’s a fraud and the validity of these numbers can be debated due to a small sample, but I found them interesting nonetheless.

Bartoo has been covering scoring efficiency by quarters and here is how MSU stacks up:

- MSU?s offense is 50th in scoring efficiency in the 1st quarter.
- MSU?s defense is around 50th in scoring efficiency in the first quarter.

- MSU?s offense is #1 in the country in scoring efficiency in the 2nd and 3rd quarters
- MSU?s defense is #1 in the country in scoring efficiency in the 2nd and 3rd quarters

What does this mean? That can be debated, but at very least it appears that we have a coaching staff that could be good to elite at making adjustments.

I remember when we hired Moorhead, there were a few Penn State fans that said Moorhead is elite but it takes him about 3 drives to get it going. This appears to have some merit.

This would be the opposite of the Ole Miss teams that score on the first drive of the game in every game but then get shut down.

Just some food for thought when watching the game tomorrow. Us looking like crap early and sloppy could just be par for the course but don?t worry. The avalanche comes in the 2nd and 3rd quarters.

[Bully13]

Solid as hell Gun. Except I don't think it can be debated too much.

[MedDawg]

I realize some of you think he’s a fraud and the validity of these numbers can be debated due to a small sample, bu I found them interesting nonetheless.

Bartoo has been covering scoring efficiency by quarters and here is how MSU stacks up:

- MSU?s offense is 50th in scoring efficiency in the 1st quarter.
- MSU?s defense is around 50th in scoring efficiency in the first quarter.

- MSU?s offense is #1 in the country in scoring efficiency in the 2nd and 3rd quarters
- MSU?s defense is #1 in the country in scoring efficiency in the 2nd and 3rd quarters

What does this mean? That can be debated, but at very least it appears that we have a coaching staff that could be good to elite at making adjustments.

I remember when we hired Moorhead, there were a few Penn State fans that said Moorhead is elite but it takes him about 3 drives to get it going. This appears to have some merit.

This would be the opposite of the Ole Miss teams that score on the first drive of the game in every game but then get shut down.

Just some food for thought when watching the game tomorrow. Us looking like crap early and sloppy could just be par for the course but don?t worry. The avalanche comes in the 2nd and 3rd quarters.

I follow Penn State closely and have mentioned something similar, but it's cool to see it in stat form.

In Moorhead's first year at Penn State, nearly every game seemed to have them fall behind early, then start catching up later. They were labeled "second half comebacks", but the comebacks really started mid- or late-second quarter. Penn State won 9 in a row after starting 2-2 that year. In 2017, Penn State's offense started much faster. Not sure what changed, other than McSorley and Barkley being a year older and the whole offense with a year's experience under Moorhead. I don't remember actual playcalling changing. Either way, Moorhead was excellent at in-game adjustments at Penn State and also appears to be so at MSU.

Moorhead finds what works and goes with it. There were teams who sold out to stop Barkley, then McSorley would run and pass more. That seems obvious to fans, but we at State have seen coach after coach fail to make adjustments, especially in the middle of a half (and not just at halftime).

[Dawg61]

Through 3 games we have 5 punts total. We punted once vs KSU and once vs ULL.

[TrapGame]

What was Bartoo's take on the game Saturday?

[ShotgunDawg]

What was Bartoo's take on the game Saturday?

He thought MSU would win between 7-12 points. He's almost exclusively light on us though.

[Commercecomet24]

The coaches that are flexible and adjust are the ones that become elite. I love that when JoMo finds something that's clicking he hammers on that. He doesn't come out with we are just going to run and throw. He tests a defense finds there weakness and then exploits it. I love the way he attacks. "We are a left lane team" I've rewatched a lot of the PSU games after JoMo became OC and as MedDawg said he turns up the heat from the second quarter on. We may not win every game but by george we got us a coach who ain't afraid of any team and who's aggressive as heck!

[LC Dawg]

If those numbers are close to the same after KY and FL I will be even more excited about the rest of the year.
We've given up an average of 2 points per 1st quarter so if that stays the same I'm sure that 50th ranking will increase significantly.

[dawgday166]

I'm gonna keep in mind what he's saying bout his new "toy". Gonna see how the games play out this weekend relative to what happens in each quarter.

[BrunswickDawg]

I follow Penn State closely and have mentioned something similar, but it's cool to see it in stat form.

In Moorhead's first year at Penn State, nearly every game seemed to have them fall behind early, then start catching up later. They were labeled "second half comebacks", but the comebacks really started mid- or late-second quarter. Penn State won 9 in a row after starting 2-2 that year. In 2017, Penn State's offense started much faster. Not sure what changed, other than McSorley and Barkley being a year older and the whole offense with a year's experience under Moorhead. I don't remember actual playcalling changing. Either way, Moorhead was excellent at in-game adjustments at Penn State and also appears to be so at MSU.

Moorhead finds what works and goes with it. There were teams who sold out to stop Barkley, then McSorley would run and pass more. That seems obvious to fans, but we at State have seen coach after coach fail to make adjustments, especially in the middle of a half (and not just at halftime).

I think PSU's defense added to the "slow start" perception though. Neither of the D's at PSU in '16 or '17 were much above average. They ranked 8th and 5th in the B1G in Total D, and 8th and 2nd in scoring D.
With our defense what it is, we can miss on a series or two and not get in a hole. That is a great luxury to have - and is a key to why Bama has been so good when their offense has been rather pedestrian (until this year).

[Commercecomet24]

I think PSU's defense added to the "slow start" perception though. Neither of the D's at PSU in '16 or '17 were much above average. They ranked 8th and 5th in the B1G in Total D, and 8th and 2nd in scoring D.
With our defense what it is, we can miss on a series or two and not get in a hole. That is a great luxury to have - and is a key to why Bama has been so good when their offense has been rather pedestrian (until this year).

Great points! Also I believe our OL is substantially better than the OL he had at psu.

[Dawg61]

Ok after looking at our box scores this stat is worthless after 3 games. No offense Shotgun. We have given up 2 field goals total in 3 games in the 1st quarter and that puts us 50th in the country. We have scored 21 vs SFA, 3 vs KSU and 14 vs ULL in the 1st quarter and that puts us 50th in offense. So we are outscoring our 3 opponents 38-6 in the 1st quarter. That's not really a slow start.

[HoopsDawg]

we are going to learn more about Shoop tomorrow b/c this is the first team we have played that can run and pass a little bit and have some athletes on offense.

[HoopsDawg]

Great points! Also I believe our OL is substantially better than the OL he had at psu.

obviously, it's hard to know about O-linemen across the country, but I wouldn't trade our 3 interior guys with any team in the country. Jenkins, Calhoun, and Williams are mauling people.

[Commercecomet24]

obviously, it's hard to know about O-linemen across the country, but I wouldn't trade our 3 interior guys with any team in the country. Jenkins, Calhoun, and Williams are mauling people.

Yep!

[HoopsDawg]

Yep!

forgot to ask, how did your son do at WWBA? Think he will get to play at the next level?

[TrapGame]

we are going to learn more about Shoop tomorrow b/c this is the first team we have played that can run and pass a little bit and have some athletes on offense.

It's also gonna be interesting to see how Shoop deals with this UK offense after two years at Tennessee. He's very familiar with this offense.

[HoopsDawg]

It's also gonna be interesting to see how Shoop deals with this UK offense after two years at Tennessee. He's very familiar with this offense.

Benny Snell ran for 180 and 3 TD's last year vs his defense. They lost and gave up 29 points. He gave up 36 points 2 years ago. So yeah, he's familiar and hopefully a little salty about it.

[Commercecomet24]

forgot to ask, how did your son do at WWBA? Think he will get to play at the next level?

I appreciate you asking. He did well, the team not so much lol. He made the all tournament team. He caught 4 games, closed 1 game and started our last game. He hit over 300 and was perfect throwing out baserunners, gave up 1 run on 3 hits in 7 innings pitched, while striking out 11. He's being recruited by about a dozen D1 programs, Stanford, Indiana, South Alabama and USM have shown the most interest so far. He's been invited to camps this fall. Will be at State camp in October. Hopefully he continues to progress. I appreciate you checking.

[msbulldog]

I appreciate you asking. He did well, the team not so much lol. He made the all tournament team. He caught 4 games, closed 1 game and started our last game. He hit over 300 and was perfect throwing out baserunners, gave up 1 run on 3 hits in 7 innings pitched, while striking out 11. He's being recruited by about a dozen D1 programs, Stanford, Indiana, South Alabama and USM have shown the most interest so far. He's been invited to camps this fall. Will be at State camp in October. Hopefully he continues to progress. I appreciate you checking.

Good luck to your son! Hope he makes it to MSU, I know that would make ole Dad happy.

[Dawg61]

I appreciate you asking. He did well, the team not so much lol. He made the all tournament team. He caught 4 games, closed 1 game and started our last game. He hit over 300 and was perfect throwing out baserunners, gave up 1 run on 3 hits in 7 innings pitched, while striking out 11. He's being recruited by about a dozen D1 programs, Stanford, Indiana, South Alabama and USM have shown the most interest so far. He's been invited to camps this fall. Will be at State camp in October. Hopefully he continues to progress. I appreciate you checking.

Was Indiana recruiting him before Lemons came here?

[dawgday166]

obviously, it's hard to know about O-linemen across the country, but I wouldn't trade our 3 interior guys with any team in the country. Jenkins, Calhoun, and Williams are mauling people.

I'll take our whole OL over KSUs. I thought that before the game itself. I figure there are maybe 2 to 4 in sec on par with ours, or maybe slight better (I don't know about better tho if our tackles get to where I think they should be). GA, Bama, TAM, maybe LSU. I thought ours was better than Bama's last year.

[Commercecomet24]

Was Indiana recruiting him before Lemons came here?

Nope. They started recruiting him at WWBA and after.

[Commercecomet24]

Good luck to your son! Hope he makes it to MSU, I know that would make ole Dad happy.

Thanks that would be awesome and a dream for us, but we are so deep at catcher right now and in the future, it's probably not gonna happen. He's a 2020 guy so lot can happen between now and then.

[Bully13]

Thanks that would be awesome and a dream for us, but we are so deep at catcher right now and in the future, it's probably not gonna happen. He's a 2020 guy so lot can happen between now and then.

Good to hear about him again Commerce. Please Keep us updated. Is Stanford still keeping in touch? If so, that's about as good of a back up plan as any family can have!

[Dawg61]

Thanks that would be awesome and a dream for us, but we are so deep at catcher right now and in the future, it's probably not gonna happen. He's a 2020 guy so lot can happen between now and then.

Sounds like we'd be fools not to sign a starting catcher that can also pitch. Let's not be fools. Someone send Lemons an email.

[Commercecomet24]

Good to hear about him again Commerce. Please Keep us updated. Is Stanford still keeping in touch? If so, that's about as good of a back up plan as any family can have!

Thanks! Will do. He's gets emails from the Stanford coaching staff every week. However while he's a good student he's not Stanford level in the classroom lol.

[TrapGame]

Benny Snell ran for 180 and 3 TD's last year vs his defense. They lost and gave up 29 points. He gave up 36 points 2 years ago. So yeah, he's familiar and hopefully a little salty about it.

Good thing he has a defense now that gives a shit.

[HoopsDawg]

I appreciate you asking. He did well, the team not so much lol. He made the all tournament team. He caught 4 games, closed 1 game and started our last game. He hit over 300 and was perfect throwing out baserunners, gave up 1 run on 3 hits in 7 innings pitched, while striking out 11. He's being recruited by about a dozen D1 programs, Stanford, Indiana, South Alabama and USM have shown the most interest so far. He's been invited to camps this fall. Will be at State camp in October. Hopefully he continues to progress. I appreciate you checking.

That's awesome man!

[Commercecomet24]

Y'all are alright! Appreciate y'all checking and your support. He had a great spring and even better summer season. He's got some great coaches working with him who push him hard. And my apologies to shotgun for hijacking the thread some.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

Ok after looking at our box scores this stat is worthless after 3 games. No offense Shotgun. We have given up 2 field goals total in 3 games in the 1st quarter and that puts us 50th in the country. We have scored 21 vs SFA, 3 vs KSU and 14 vs ULL in the 1st quarter and that puts us 50th in offense. So we are outscoring our 3 opponents 38-6 in the 1st quarter. That's not really a slow start.

That's what I don't get, I was thinking of looking up the numbers but then I saw your post.

If 38 points total over 3 Qs is 50th, then allowing 6 points should be top 10 as a lot of 1st Q points are being scored. If allowing 6 points is 50th, then scoring 38 should be top 10 as 49 teams have allowed less than 6 points. I'm really confused how such good numbers on both sides leads to 50th.

For comparison, our 2nd Q numbers are 45 points scored and 3 allowed. so 3 less points allowed over 3 games bumps us from 50th to 1st? Going from 12.6 points per first Q to 15 per 2nd Q also jumps us 49 spots?

Isn't Bartoo is the same guy that told us Tennessee and Florida were CFP contenders, but we weren't?

[Prediction? Pain.]

Ok after looking at our box scores this stat is worthless after 3 games. No offense Shotgun. We have given up 2 field goals total in 3 games in the 1st quarter and that puts us 50th in the country. We have scored 21 vs SFA, 3 vs KSU and 14 vs ULL in the 1st quarter and that puts us 50th in offense. So we are outscoring our 3 opponents 38-6 in the 1st quarter. That's not really a slow start.

I haven't seen Bartoo's stats or the data he's using to generate them, but the "efficiency" label makes me think that he's focusing on points and/or yards per play. If so, I can kind of see where he's coming from based on our situational yards-per-rush numbers.

Here is our SEC rank in yards per carry by quarter so far:

1st Quarter - 5th
2nd Quarter - 1st
3rd Quarter - 1st
4th Quarter - 6th

So our backs and line are doing fine to start out a game, but they really take it up a gear after the 1st quarter.

I couldn't quickly find a similar breakdown of our yards per passing attempt, but Fitz' completion % and QB ratings mimic the same trend. Here they are by quarter

1st - 43.8%, 101.5 rating
2nd - 58.3%, 213.43 rating
3rd - 61.5%, 166.72 rating
4th - 42.9%, 86.06 rating

Now, this is a very small sample size -- especially on Fitz' passing (2 games, and only 7 total passing attempts in the fourth quarter) -- but it does seem to show that so far, we've really gotten rolling offensively after the first quarter. JoMo's fabled play-calling adjustments? Maybe so.

Another set of similar offensive stats that are eye-popping after three games are Bill C.'s "success rate," "explosiveness," and "points per scoring opportunity." The first one measures the percentage of our offensive plays that are "successful" (i.e. 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down). The second one measures the degree of success on a successful play (example: 10 yards on 1st and 10 is successful, but 25 yards on 1st and 10 is really successful) using some fancy points-per-yard metrics that I won't get in to here. And the last one isolates success and explosiveness for plays that are beyond an opponents' 40-yard line (think of it as how good we are in the red zone, but where the red zone extends to the 40 yard line instead of the 20).

Right now, our offense is 2nd in the nation in success rate, 7th in explosiveness, and 10th in points per scoring opportunity. If you break it down to only our running offense, it's even better. Our run game is 1st in the nation in success rate, 15th in explosiveness, and 1st in both "opportunity rate" (yards after our rushers get a few yards past the line of scrimmage) and "stuff rate" (percentage of runs that result in positive yards).

I know our schedule has been pretty easy, but those are still amazing numbers. If we can stay in this ballpark -- which is a tall task -- our offense is going to be ridiculous.

ETA: I just realized that I forgot about the defensive efficiency numbers. Woops. Quick glance at the raw situational stats for yards-per-carry allowed and completion % and QB rating allowed -- which is only part of the picture -- is less consistent. The advanced stats tell a similar story. The defense appears to be super efficient and nasty in some situations, less so in others. For example, awesome a limiting an opposing teams success and explosiveness on standard downs (12th and 4th nationally) and sacking teams on passing (long-yardage) downs (7th nationally), but bad at limiting success in long-yardage situations (111th nationally) and less-than-average at sack rates on standard downs (82nd nationally). Net effect is that the defense has performed at a top 25 level (21st overall in S&P+ ranks), but not quite as well as our freakish offense so far (which is 7th).

Here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml#) is the data dump for Bill C.'s stuff, by the way, in case you're interested.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

I haven't seen Bartoo's stats or the data he's using to generate them, but the "efficiency" label makes me think that he's focusing on points and/or yards per play. If so, I can kind of see where he's coming from based on our situational yards-per-rush numbers.

Here is our SEC rank in yards per carry by quarter so far:

1st Quarter - 5th
2nd Quarter - 1st
3rd Quarter - 1st
4th Quarter - 6th

I couldn't quickly find a similar breakdown of our yards per passing attempt, but Fitz' completion % and QB ratings mimic the same trend. Here they are by quarter

1st - 43.8%, 101.5 rating
2nd - 58.3%, 213.43 rating
3rd - 61.5%, 166.72 rating
4th - 42.9%, 86.06 rating

Now, this is a very small sample size -- especially on Fitz' passing (2 games, and only 7 total passing attempts in the fourth quarter) -- but it does seem to show that so far, we've really gotten rolling offensively after the first quarter.

Another set of similar offensive stats that are eye-popping after three games are Bill C.'s "success rate," "explosiveness," and "points per scoring opportunity." The first one measures the percentage of our offensive plays that are "successful" (i.e. 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down). The second one measures the degree of success on a successful play (example: 10 yards on 1st and 10 is successful, but 25 yards on 1st and 10 is really successful) using some fancy points-per-yard metrics that I won't get in to here. And the last one isolates success and explosiveness for plays that are beyond an opponents' 40-yard line (think of it as how good we are in the red zone, but where the red zone extends to the 40 yard line instead of the 20).

Right now, our offense is 2nd in the nation in success rate, 7th in explosiveness, and 10th in points per scoring opportunity. If you break it down to only our running offense, it's even better. Our run game is 1st in the nation in success rate, 15th in explosiveness, and 1st in both "opportunity rate" (yards after our rushers get a few yards past the line of scrimmage) and "stuff rate" (percentage of runs that result in positive yards).

I know our schedule has been pretty easy, but those are still amazing numbers. If we can stay in this ballpark -- which is a tall task -- our offense is going to be ridiculous.

ETA: I just realized that I forgot about the defensive efficiency numbers. Woops. Quick glance at the raw situational stats for yards-per-carry allowed and completion % and QB rating allowed -- which is only part of the picture -- is less consistent. The advanced stats tell a similar story. The defense appears to be super efficient and nasty in some situations, less so in others. For example, awesome a limiting an opposing teams success on standard downs and sacking teams on passing (long-yardage) downs, but mediocre at limiting success in long-yardage situations and less-than-average at sack rates on standard downs. Net effect is that the defense has performed at a top 25 level, but not quite as well as our freakish offense so far.

Here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml#) is the data dump for Bill C.'s stuff, by the way, in case you're interested.

Excellent post! not enough deep stats or understanding of them when discussing sports. rep given

[msstate7]

Excellent post! not enough deep stats or understanding of them when discussing sports. rep given

He's the best at advanced stats for football here. He doesn't post enough

[RocketDawg]

What's the definition of "scoring efficiency", both offensively and defensively?

[msbulldog]

I haven't seen Bartoo's stats or the data he's using to generate them, but the "efficiency" label makes me think that he's focusing on points and/or yards per play. If so, I can kind of see where he's coming from based on our situational yards-per-rush numbers.

Here is our SEC rank in yards per carry by quarter so far:

1st Quarter - 5th
2nd Quarter - 1st
3rd Quarter - 1st
4th Quarter - 6th

So our backs and line are doing fine to start out a game, but they really take it up a gear after the 1st quarter.

I couldn't quickly find a similar breakdown of our yards per passing attempt, but Fitz' completion % and QB ratings mimic the same trend. Here they are by quarter

1st - 43.8%, 101.5 rating
2nd - 58.3%, 213.43 rating
3rd - 61.5%, 166.72 rating
4th - 42.9%, 86.06 rating

Now, this is a very small sample size -- especially on Fitz' passing (2 games, and only 7 total passing attempts in the fourth quarter) -- but it does seem to show that so far, we've really gotten rolling offensively after the first quarter. JoMo's fabled play-calling adjustments? Maybe so.

Another set of similar offensive stats that are eye-popping after three games are Bill C.'s "success rate," "explosiveness," and "points per scoring opportunity." The first one measures the percentage of our offensive plays that are "successful" (i.e. 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down). The second one measures the degree of success on a successful play (example: 10 yards on 1st and 10 is successful, but 25 yards on 1st and 10 is really successful) using some fancy points-per-yard metrics that I won't get in to here. And the last one isolates success and explosiveness for plays that are beyond an opponents' 40-yard line (think of it as how good we are in the red zone, but where the red zone extends to the 40 yard line instead of the 20).

Right now, our offense is 2nd in the nation in success rate, 7th in explosiveness, and 10th in points per scoring opportunity. If you break it down to only our running offense, it's even better. Our run game is 1st in the nation in success rate, 15th in explosiveness, and 1st in both "opportunity rate" (yards after our rushers get a few yards past the line of scrimmage) and "stuff rate" (percentage of runs that result in positive yards).

I know our schedule has been pretty easy, but those are still amazing numbers. If we can stay in this ballpark -- which is a tall task -- our offense is going to be ridiculous.

ETA: I just realized that I forgot about the defensive efficiency numbers. Woops. Quick glance at the raw situational stats for yards-per-carry allowed and completion % and QB rating allowed -- which is only part of the picture -- is less consistent. The advanced stats tell a similar story. The defense appears to be super efficient and nasty in some situations, less so in others. For example, awesome a limiting an opposing teams success and explosiveness on standard downs (12th and 4th nationally) and sacking teams on passing (long-yardage) downs (7th nationally), but bad at limiting success in long-yardage situations (111th nationally) and less-than-average at sack rates on standard downs (82nd nationally). Net effect is that the defense has performed at a top 25 level (21st overall in S&P+ ranks), but not quite as well as our freakish offense so far (which is 7th).

Here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml#) is the data dump for Bill C.'s stuff, by the way, in case you're interested.

That is a helluva spread sheet, I wish I could see his formula bar.