LSU is A Statistical Conundrum

[ShotgunDawg]

1. Winning is all that matters. I acknowledge that
2. Winning is not magic. It is a result of components that add up
3. There are other ways to figure out who the best teams are other than wins & losses

With those acknowledgements out there, LSU is a statistical conundrum that is historically unsustainable.

- LSU averaged 4.69 yards per play vs Auburn & Miami. LSU is currently ranked 102nd in the country in yards per play.

- Against both Miami & Auburn, LSU has less yards per play than their opponent yet won both games. Not sustainable

- LSU has the 92nd ranked rushing offense in the country at 3.9 yards per rush. Subract the Southeastern game & they are averaging 3.3 yards per rush, including 2.8 yards per rush vs Auburn

- Joe Burrow is currently completing 46% of his passes for 6.9 yards/attempt

- LSU is currently 12th in the country is benefitting from penalties. LSU?s opponents have been charged with 29 penalties & 80.3 yards per game. That?s wild!

- LSU is ranked 19th in defense. Really good but not unreal.

- LSU is 61st in the country at sacks given up at 5. Solid but not great

I’m not trying to say that LSU isn’t a good team, but these stats are unsustainable. They’ve got two good wins, but on the backs of what? Penalties & pretty good defense?

Statistically speaking in baseball terms, what LSU is basically is a #2 MLB starter that has benefited from a big strike zone & some seeing eye singles & small strike zone for his offense.

They are physical & aggressive, but it’ll take more than voodoo for them to keep up this luck. Our eyes as spectators just aren’t capable of encapsulating all the things that lead to winning & losing.

[Jack Lambert]

I think Auburn and Miami are not as good as they were advertised.

[msstate7]

I think LSU is definetely benefiting from BABIP good fortune if you will. With that said, stats this early aren't really that beneficial bc the different levels of competition

[ShotgunDawg]

I think LSU is definetely benefiting from BABIP good fortune if you will. With that said, stats this early aren't really that beneficial bc the different levels of competition

Agree but when taking into consideration the lack of offense, not super defense, and a massive amount of penalties against their opponents, it’s clear that something is off.

My post was just food for thought.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

Good stats SD. You can really tell they just aren't that good. One thing to add is turnovers: LSU has gotten 2 fumbles and 5 INTs, yet haven't turned it over yet. 6th in the country in turnover margin. Some of that is Burrow being careful, some is their great DBs. However, 7-0 is extremely lucky and won't last.

Auburn has also been extremely lucky to have their opponents commit a ton of penalties, avg of 87 yards per game. We've cleaned up our penalties so that's like 40-50 less free yards than either LSU or Auburn are used too. Auburn commits 84 yards themselves, and LSU is at 79. #120 and #113 in the country respectively. Worst 2 in the conference. Since we've gotten ours fixed we'll be spotted 30-40 yards and a few automatic first downs ourselves.

[BulldogBear]

I agree more or less with Jack.

Conclusion:

LSU is a little better than we thought. Auburn is not near as good as advertised.

[Johnson85]

Agree but when taking into consideration the lack of offense, not super defense, and a massive amount of penalties against their opponents, it’s clear that something is off.

My post was just food for thought.

You're comparing LSU's stats against 2 good (very good?) teams and one cupcake to the rest of the country who have maybe one good team and a mediocre team and a cupcake. As other teams get further into their schedule and play better teams, they will come back to earth.

So another way to look at it is that everybody has to win some games where they are evenly matched where their stats are going to look pretty pedestrian (at least on offense or defense or both depending on the matchup) and LSU has already gotten past two of them.

Of course, being in the SECW, and schedulign Miami and drawing UGA, LSU still has three more bigtime roadblocks to face, plus avoiding a slipup v. A&M. I do think those stats tell you that it's unlikely that they get through without two losses; I just don't think they tell you they're not that good.

I agree that they're probably not as good as their resume looks; I just don't think the stats are reliable enough yet to tell you that.

[Cooterpoot]

I'll give them credit for the AU win. Hard to win at AU any year. But Miami....Miami isn't good.
Neither LSU nor AU are good on offense. Both are good on defense. LSU's kicker has been their biggest improvement and has been big in both games.

[Coach007]

I agree more or less with Jack.

Conclusion:

LSU is a little better than we thought. Auburn is not near as good as advertised.

Not to me.

I 100% have never thought Auburn would be good this year. I 100% KNOW that LSU had to have the help of OFFICALS to win that game.

[1bigdawg]

The question is, how will they fare against a really good offense. I don’t know if they can score enough to beat those teams.

[PMDawg]

1. Winning is all that matters. I acknowledge that
2. Winning is not magic. It is a result of components that add up
3. There are other ways to figure out who the best teams are other than wins & losses

With those acknowledgements out there, LSU is a statistical conundrum that is historically unsustainable.

- LSU averaged 4.69 yards per play vs Auburn & Miami. LSU is currently ranked 102nd in the country in yards per play.

- Against both Miami & Auburn, LSU has less yards per play than their opponent yet won both games. Not sustainable

- LSU has the 92nd ranked rushing offense in the country at 3.9 yards per rush. Subract the Southeastern game & they are averaging 3.3 yards per rush, including 2.8 yards per rush vs Auburn

- Joe Burrow is currently completing 46% of his passes for 6.9 yards/attempt

- LSU is currently 12th in the country is benefitting from penalties. LSU?s opponents have been charged with 29 penalties & 80.3 yards per game. That?s wild!

- LSU is ranked 19th in defense. Really good but not unreal.

- LSU is 61st in the country at sacks given up at 5. Solid but not great

I?m not trying to say that LSU isn?t a good team, but these stats are unsustainable. They?ve got two good wins, but on the backs of what? Penalties & pretty good defense?

Statistically speaking in baseball terms, what LSU is basically is a #2 MLB starter that has benefited from a big strike zone & some seeing eye singles & small strike zone for his offense.

They are physical & aggressive, but it?ll take more than voodoo for them to keep up this luck. Our eyes as spectators just aren?t capable of encapsulating all the things that lead to winning & losing.

They remind me a lot of our '99 team. Great defense, plodding and methodical offense that is not exciting to watch. It gets the job done against most opponents, but you better not fall behind against a team with a good defense.

[TrapGame]

I'm going out on a limb here. We will skull drag Auburn.

Now, LSU being at night in DV might be a lot closer game, but one we can definitely win.

[NWADAWG]

Stats have there place but usually don't tell the whole story. That is usually because you don't have all the stats. I watched part of the LSU-Auburn game. LSU may have only completed 46% of their passes, but they completed 100% of what they needed with the game on the line. If a team throws incomplete on 1st and 2nd down, then throws complete on 3rd for 15 yards, they will be successful. That would be 33% completion rate and still scoring on every possession.

Yes, I get that penalties and other factors exist but wanted to show how stats can be deceiving.

[ShotgunDawg]

Stats have there place but usually don't tell the whole story. That is usually because you don't have all the stats. I watched part of the LSU-Auburn game. LSU may have only completed 46% of their passes, but they completed 100% of what they needed with the game on the line. If a team throws incomplete on 1st and 2nd down, then throws complete on 3rd for 15 yards, they will be successful. That would be 33% completion rate and still scoring on every possession.

Yes, I get that penalties and other factors exist but wanted to show how stats can be deceiving.

They got pass interference call 100% of the times when they needed them.

They were good calls but still.....

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

I'm going out on a limb here. We will skull drag Auburn.

Now, LSU being at night in DV might be a lot closer game, but one we can definitely win.

As I've said before, I think the schedule is our X factor against LSU. They'll have played 3 straight SEC games, be coming off their first loss to UGA (and you know the fans and team will be pumped for that and thinking Natty). We on the other hand, will have a bye week to get healthy, clean up mistakes, and get better scouting report. We'll be focused, fresh, and prepared, they'll be worn out, physically drained, and emotionally spent after UGA.

[TrapGame]

As I've said before, I think the schedule is our X factor against LSU. They'll have played 3 straight SEC games, be coming off their first loss to UGA (and you know the fans and team will be pumped for that and thinking Natty). We on the other hand, will have a bye week to get healthy, clean up mistakes, and get better scouting report. We'll be focused, fresh, and prepared, they'll be worn out, physically drained, and emotionally spent after UGA.

Good points. I'm sure Joe will use the bye week to put a few wrinkles in the offense that's not on film.

[Duckdog]

1. Winning is all that matters. I acknowledge that
2. Winning is not magic. It is a result of components that add up
3. There are other ways to figure out who the best teams are other than wins & losses

With those acknowledgements out there, LSU is a statistical conundrum that is historically unsustainable.

- LSU averaged 4.69 yards per play vs Auburn & Miami. LSU is currently ranked 102nd in the country in yards per play.

- Against both Miami & Auburn, LSU has less yards per play than their opponent yet won both games. Not sustainable

- LSU has the 92nd ranked rushing offense in the country at 3.9 yards per rush. Subract the Southeastern game & they are averaging 3.3 yards per rush, including 2.8 yards per rush vs Auburn

- Joe Burrow is currently completing 46% of his passes for 6.9 yards/attempt

- LSU is currently 12th in the country is benefitting from penalties. LSU?s opponents have been charged with 29 penalties & 80.3 yards per game. That?s wild!

- LSU is ranked 19th in defense. Really good but not unreal.

- LSU is 61st in the country at sacks given up at 5. Solid but not great

I’m not trying to say that LSU isn’t a good team, but these stats are unsustainable. They’ve got two good wins, but on the backs of what? Penalties & pretty good defense?

Statistically speaking in baseball terms, what LSU is basically is a #2 MLB starter that has benefited from a big strike zone & some seeing eye singles & small strike zone for his offense.

They are physical & aggressive, but it’ll take more than voodoo for them to keep up this luck. Our eyes as spectators just aren’t capable of encapsulating all the things that lead to winning & losing.
Could someone breakdown State's stats like this please??????

[ShotgunDawg]

Could someone breakdown State's stats like this please??????

Points per game - 50 for 8.7 against
Yard per rush - 7.6
Yards per play - 8.4
QB completion % - 52%
Yards per attempt - 8.3
Total defense - 8
Total offense - 8
Opponent penalties - 117th. MSU opponents have been flagged 15 times for 96 yards

[Cooterpoot]

Good stats SD. You can really tell they just aren't that good. One thing to add is turnovers: LSU has gotten 2 fumbles and 5 INTs, yet haven't turned it over yet. 6th in the country in turnover margin. Some of that is Burrow being careful, some is their great DBs. However, 7-0 is extremely lucky and won't last.

Auburn has also been extremely lucky to have their opponents commit a ton of penalties, avg of 87 yards per game. We've cleaned up our penalties so that's like 40-50 less free yards than either LSU or Auburn are used too. Auburn commits 84 yards themselves, and LSU is at 79. #120 and #113 in the country respectively. Worst 2 in the conference. Since we've gotten ours fixed we'll be spotted 30-40 yards and a few automatic first downs ourselves.

They led the nation in fewest turnovers last year with only 8 I believe.

[Dental Dawg33]

I'm going out on a limb here. We will skull drag Auburn.

Now, LSU being at night in DV might be a lot closer game, but one we can definitely win.

I agree with this assessment

[RougeDawg]

I'm going out on a limb here. We will skull drag Auburn.

Now, LSU being at night in DV might be a lot closer game, but one we can definitely win.

We will win both games easily with whomever we have at QB. If either Auburn or LSU had a running QB they would?ve ?run away? with the game Saturday. I was sitting in the north endzone watching that abortion of a game. We will carve them up because we have a mobile QB. Auburn isn?t top 4 in the west at this point.

[Irondawg]

I can't say Auburn isn't top 4. They can't run the ball yet but Stidham can make all the throws. LSU has a really good secondary which made a big difference. We'll all know more in 2 weeks

[RougeDawg]

They got pass interference call 100% of the times when they needed them.

They were good calls but still.....

No. The last PI should have been a no call. It happened right in front of me and was more offensive player initiated contact than defense. You knew they were going to call it because they?d been pro LSU all game.

[TrapGame]

We will win both games easily with whomever we have at QB. If either Auburn or LSU had a running QB they would?ve ?run away? with the game Saturday. I was sitting in the north endzone watching that abortion of a game. We will carve them up because we have a mobile QB. Auburn isn?t top 4 in the west at this point.

I heard a harsh critique of Stidham in Gus's system. He's not a true dual threat and is really a liability to the offense. Gus's offense is made for guys like Fitz and Key. And Gus doesn't have anyone like that.

[Johnson85]

I can't say Auburn isn't top 4. They can't run the ball yet but Stidham can make all the throws. LSU has a really good secondary which made a big difference. We'll all know more in 2 weeks

Yup. I'm still more scared of Auburn than LSU except for having them at home v. playing LSU in Baton Rouge.

Not sure our CBs will be able to cover like LSU's, so that might offset Stidham not being a running threat.

[ShotgunDawg]

I heard a harsh critique of Stidham in Gus's system. He's not a true dual threat and is really a liability to the offense. Gus's offense is made for guys like Fitz and Key. And Gus doesn't have anyone like that.

Gus's offense has never worked with a pro-style QB minus an NFL caliber RB. Auburn is severely limited in running the ball.

[smootness]

We are better than both LSU and Auburn.

[TrapGame]

Gus's offense has never worked with a pro-style QB minus an NFL caliber RB. Auburn is severely limited in running the ball.

I was shocked at how little they ran on LSU. They do not have a legit SEC RB.

[LC Dawg]

We are better than both LSU and Auburn.

I agree. Only one win on our schedule would be an upset and we know who that is.
We may not beat Auburn and LSU but we should. It's hard for MSU fans, myself included sometimes, to admit things like this.

[Kingbarkus]

I was shocked at how little they ran on LSU. They do not have a legit SEC RB.

I'm not surprised at all about Auburn's run game. With many new, inexperienced offensive linemen and and no Kerryon Johnson, the struggle is real. We need to make them one dimensional and not turn the ball over on offensive to win.

[Dental Dawg33]

I agree. Only one win on our schedule would be an upset and we know who that is.
We may not beat Auburn and LSU but we should. It's hard for MSU fans, myself included sometimes, to admit things like this.

Exactly. One guy I was talking with about our team said he’s cautiously optimistic. I get it, and anything can happen, and I’ve been a state fan long enough...blah blah.. Boys, we damn good. Some apprehensive fans will see that after we walk out of Lexington with 3+ TD W this weekend.