QB question for insiders

[Walkerhill]

For those who have seen scrimmages and practices, some qb questions:
1) what completion percentage did we see from Key and Nick in scrimmages and practices?
2) what completion percentage did you honestly expect from these first games
3) is a 20 point increase in percentage possible? What is the ceiling as the offense matures?

I do not want to fixate on the passing stats, at least not until the back half of the schedule. Just curious where we are vs. internal expectations right now.

[mstatefan91]

Nick will be closer to 60 by the end of the season. It will get better

[MrKotter]

I wish Moorhead never would have said anything about completion percentages.

[Walkerhill]

I wish Moorhead never would have said anything about completion percentages.

Agreed. Intentional or not, they have created an undue pressure during this offensive transition period.

That being said, doubt 40% would have flown under the radar either way.

[Dawg61]

That being said, doubt 40% would have flown under the radar either way.

It's low hanging fruit. Key is 7th in the country in yards per attempt. He's probably #1 in the country in yards per completion.

[HoopsDawg]

completion percentage can be misleading. some teams throw 20 passes a game 5 yards down the field or less. A great number for Fitz would be 60%. I think 65% was more shoot for the stars and land on the moon.

[Dawg61]

McSorley for Penn State has a 52% completion rate right now and PSU is 74th in the country in offense. We are 14th.

[Walkerhill]

McSorley for Penn State has a 52% completion rate right now and PSU is 74th in the country in offense. We are 14th.


I mean, that seems too flippant. I agree with the idea that it is too early in the season to draw conclusions, especially when our qbs have split the game reps across 2 games. And, yes, the offense has been explosive.

That being said, you cannot stay where you need to be in down and distance against some of the good defenses on the back half of our schedule unless you get that completion percentage up. Those lost plays will just kill you.

So, should we hit the panic button now. No.
But, will this level of efficiency work long term. Also no.

[Todd4State]

I wish Moorhead never would have said anything about completion percentages.

I disagree. I like that there are clear standards because that's what it's going to take for us to reach our ceiling.

It's worth discussing. I don't think it's worth panicking over either. Nick has to get better and he knows it. And he probably will.

[Dawg61]

I disagree. I like that there are clear standards because that's what it's going to take for us to reach our ceiling.

It's worth discussing. I don't think it's worth panicking over either. Nick has to get better and he knows it. And he probably will.

The #1 standard is winning games not having a 65% completion rate. You think JoMo is giving out stickers to Fitz when he losses but still completes 65% of his passes?

[Homedawg]

For those who have seen scrimmages and practices, some qb questions:
1) what completion percentage did we see from Key and Nick in scrimmages and practices?
2) what completion percentage did you honestly expect from these first games
3) is a 20 point increase in percentage possible? What is the ceiling as the offense matures?

I do not want to fixate on the passing stats, at least not until the back half of the schedule. Just curious where we are vs. internal expectations right now.

I was told from multiple people close to the situation, that key was having a hard time w post snap progressions. Said nick was fine. With that said, nobody would predict what his percentage would be, nor would he be a better passer. All said the biggest change in the offense was, who we read, and that we would take shots. Whether we hit them or not would be another question. So that part remains to be seen

[Homedawg]

Nick will be closer to 60 by the end of the season. It will get better
I just don't see it. Unless he dumps every pass. He's just not a great thrower. Some are. Some aren't. If he is 58% and hits a half ass amount of deep throws, which's he's never done, we will be elite. We shall see.

[BB30]

FWIW friend of mine heard our qb coach speak not long ago. He said when nick was going against the #1s in fall camp he was right around 66 to 67%.

Still trying to figure out why we are worried about it. It’s going to be what it’s going to be. As long as the offense is productive and scores points I could care less what the comp % is.

The only thing that worries me a bit is more incompletions could potentially mean more opportunity for turnovers.

I think Fitz will settle in and be closer to 60%. But again, as long as we are moving the ball and scoring then it really doesn’t matter.

[Todd4State]

The #1 standard is winning games not having a 65% completion rate. You think JoMo is giving out stickers to Fitz when he losses but still completes 65% of his passes?

Possibly. Do you think helmet stickers are only given out in wins?

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Possibly. Do you think helmet stickers are only given out in wins?

They are only given out in wins

[Todd4State]

FWIW friend of mine heard our qb coach speak not long ago. He said when nick was going against the #1s in fall camp he was right around 66 to 67%.

Still trying to figure out why we are worried about it. It’s going to be what it’s going to be. As long as the offense is productive and scores points I could care less what the comp % is.

The only thing that worries me a bit is more incompletions could potentially mean more opportunity for turnovers.

I think Fitz will settle in and be closer to 60%. But again, as long as we are moving the ball and scoring then it really doesn’t matter.

It's very simple. Nick against K-State looked like he has progressed very little on top of being suspended for game one. That's why people are concerned.

If he looks good against ULL the concern will probably at least start to go away. And like you said it probably will.

[Todd4State]

They are only given out in wins

Well there ya go.

[mstatefan91]

I just don't see it. Unless he dumps every pass. He's just not a great thrower. Some are. Some aren't. If he is 58% and hits a half ass amount of deep throws, which's he's never done, we will be elite. We shall see.

You’ve already seen evidence that he is a better passer than this last Saturday, chicken little. It’s called the 2015-2017 seasons. He isn’t and may not be the greatest passer of all time but he is better than 40% and a blind man can see that given his body of work

[Dawg61]

You’ve already seen evidence that he is a better passer than this last Saturday, chicken little. It’s called the 2015-2017 seasons. He isn’t and may not be the greatest passer of all time but he is better than 40% and a blind man can see that given his body of work

Yea but 65%

https://media.giphy.com/media/sgszl8D1ae1Ww/giphy.gif

[mstatefan91]

Yea but 65%

https://media.giphy.com/media/sgszl8D1ae1Ww/giphy.gif

Probably not gonna happen but 56-58 is certainly attainable

[DancingRabbit]

I think we're knee-jerking on this. The main thing I was worried about in the Little Apple was Nick's ankle. He looks very healthy. Thank you Sweet Baby Jesus!

First game. He seemed pretty in control for a road P5 game debut. Sure he was rusty, also the whole offense showed there's still some minor kinks with play calling, blocking calls, penalties. It's a new offense.

With this D, this OL, these running backs, WRs looking better -- JoeMo, staff and Nick will figure it out.

[Dawg61]

Probably not gonna happen but 56-58 is certainly attainable

Considering he's on pace for over 1,800 rushing yards I'll be thrilled with 55%.

[Walkerhill]

FWIW friend of mine heard our qb coach speak not long ago. He said when nick was going against the #1s in fall camp he was right around 66 to 67%.

Still trying to figure out why we are worried about it. It?s going to be what it?s going to be. As long as the offense is productive and scores points I could care less what the comp % is.

Thanks for answering the question, I thought I remembered something similar on here a month or so ago.

I do not know about worry, but a good reason to talk about it is that it drastically impacts our ceiling as a team. We will lose 3-4 games at this level of qb play, even with a good D and a handful of explosive plays. Just because Auburn, Bama, Texas A&M, and LSU away are on our schedule. But, with that added passing dimension we could be a playoff team with a couple of breaks.

And this collection of defensive talent is a once in a blue moon thing, so it is worth talking about how far it might take us.

I agree there is no need to obsess on 65%. But as others have stated 55-60 is probably critical against tougher opponents. And that level of improvement seems attainable.

But some posters (not the one on this reply) should stop bitching and moaning about people talking about it, it is college football in the South surrounding a really good team. This is what it is like. Better to be a talking point than not. If you want sunshine and rainbows go watch Care Bears.

[Culpritone16]

I recall a few (at least 3) absolutely catchable balls that were dropped, and yes Fitz could have taken some off of them, but those drops aren't helping the completion percentage. If you take the drops away he would have been around ~50-53% on his first game coming back from an injury on the road against a P5 team.

[gravedigger]

Thanks for answering the question, I thought I remembered something similar on here a month or so ago.

I do not know about worry, but a good reason to talk about it is that it drastically impacts our ceiling as a team. We will lose 3-4 games at this level of qb play, even with a good D and a handful of explosive plays. Just because Auburn, Bama, Texas A&M, and LSU away are on our schedule. But, with that added passing dimension we could be a playoff team with a couple of breaks.

And this collection of defensive talent is a once in a blue moon thing, so it is worth talking about how far it might take us.

I agree there is no need to obsess on 65%. But as others have stated 55-60 is probably critical against tougher opponents. And that level of improvement seems attainable.

But some posters (not the one on this reply) should stop bitching and moaning about people talking about it, it is college football in the South surrounding a really good team. This is what it is like. Better to be a talking point than not. If you want sunshine and rainbows go watch Care Bears.

Outstanding response. If we are just satisfied with beating the two teams we have and any others that cannot control our run game, then this is still going to be a successful season at 8-10 wins. But if we are going to become what we are capable of, we will have to add the dimension of being efficient in the long passing game. It's what this offensive scheme is predicated upon.

I'm fine with the way we've played. It will work in this game, UK and UF. It will stop working vs Auburn, maybe A&M and LSU and most certainly Alabama.

Next level is to refine our weakness and I'm pretty confident Joe will not just rely on the power running game or the dink and dunk passing game like Mullen seemed to be satisfied with.

I also agree with Homedog that we dont have to reach the 65% to be successful. But we are severely limited if we dont get closer to that when it comes to the 2-3 bigger defenses we have yet to face.

[BB30]

Thanks for answering the question, I thought I remembered something similar on here a month or so ago.

I do not know about worry, but a good reason to talk about it is that it drastically impacts our ceiling as a team. We will lose 3-4 games at this level of qb play, even with a good D and a handful of explosive plays. Just because Auburn, Bama, Texas A&M, and LSU away are on our schedule. But, with that added passing dimension we could be a playoff team with a couple of breaks.

And this collection of defensive talent is a once in a blue moon thing, so it is worth talking about how far it might take us.

I agree there is no need to obsess on 65%. But as others have stated 55-60 is probably critical against tougher opponents. And that level of improvement seems attainable.

But some posters (not the one on this reply) should stop bitching and moaning about people talking about it, it is college football in the South surrounding a really good team. This is what it is like. Better to be a talking point than not. If you want sunshine and rainbows go watch Care Bears.

IMO Fitz will be at 55-60% if not a tick higher. We don't have near the sample size to be in worry mode yet. Saying we will lose 3-4 games at this level of QB play--What level? He has played 4 QTRS where he had 9 incompletions in the first 3 series of the game. Once he got the jitters out he was better and will be better this week.

[Dawg61]

Sam Bradford set the NFL record for highest completion % in a season. Find me the last game Sam Bradford rushed for 150 yards like Fitz just did in his first game back after having his foot turned backwards.

[gravedigger]

Sam Bradford set the NFL record for highest completion % in a season. Find me the last game Sam Bradford rushed for 150 yards like Fitz just did in his first game back after having his foot turned backwards.

Of course this is the salient point that we are missing. For every yard Fitz rushes OVER what McSorely did, it replaces a passing yard. That effectively reduces the numbers of passes and can be a reason the percentage doesnt have to hit over 60%. A yard is a yard and a point is a point.

I think we are big game hunting this year. The next two years may very well end up being rebuilds because this defense is SO elite and so Senior. I can deal with some extra risky playcalling this year in the name of winning the Auburn, LSU, A&M and Bama games.

I just cannot stand the thought of losing because we are predictable circa Bama 2014 in Tuscaloosa.

[tcdog70]

When you throw the ball down the field instead of dinking and dumping then your % will be less. The main thing to Me is do we score TDs. So would you rather dink and dump for 5 for7 and kick a field goal--or go 3 for 7 and score a TD. the added bonus for vertical attempts is that it keeps the safeties out of the box-thus Fitz and Hill rush for 150 yards a game. Fitz threw for 159 yards with 2 TDs--pretty damn skippy.

[Dawg61]

When you throw the ball down the field instead of dinking and dumping then your % will be less. The main thing to Me is do we score TDs. So would you rather dink and dump for 5 for7 and kick a field goal--or go 3 for 7 and score a TD. the added bonus for vertical attempts is that it keeps the safeties out of the box-thus Fitz and Hill rush for 150 yards a game. Fitz threw for 159 yards with 2 TDs--pretty damn skippy.

http://i.imgur.com/45WW0wy.jpg

[WSOPdawg]

When you throw the ball down the field instead of dinking and dumping then your % will be less. The main thing to Me is do we score TDs. So would you rather dink and dump for 5 for7 and kick a field goal--or go 3 for 7 and score a TD. the added bonus for vertical attempts is that it keeps the safeties out of the box-thus Fitz and Hill rush for 150 yards a game. Fitz threw for 159 yards with 2 TDs--pretty damn skippy.

WINNER WINNER !!! Rep given.

[Walkerhill]

Of course this is the salient point that we are missing. For every yard Fitz rushes OVER what McSorely did, it replaces a passing yard. That effectively reduces the numbers of passes and can be a reason the percentage doesnt have to hit over 60%. A yard is a yard and a point is a point.

I would argue the opposite. A yard gained by qb rushing should not replace a yard of passing, it should enable more yards passing and also a higher completion percentage. That is why some are concerned, leaving yards and points on the field, which will bite us in more difficult games.

The defense has to dedicate a spy to defend a delayed qb draw, and defend the zone read, and also defend the split flow zone rushing attack. The WCO passing tree attacks all 9 offensive quadrants (field, boundary, central by short, medium, and deep). They also have to stay honest against a play action pass. That is all before you start talking RPO.

That combination of threats stretches a defense so much that easy passes should be available if the ol pass protection holds up.

So it is more concerning, not less, to see a low completion percentage when the qb is a rushing threat.

That being said, I do not believe we need to connect on deep shots to make this offense work. McSorley did that well so they rode it. But Fitz throws intermediate routes pretty well. Moorhead is going to take a few shots deep always, but eventually this passing game will thrive on short passes to the rb and finding wrs in medium routes in space with yac.

And it will be glorious. I agree totally with your comment on big game hunting this year. Of course we should enjoy watching that progression unfold and enjoy it.

[Doggie_Style]

Nick has played 1 game in the last 9.5 months....he will improve on his accuracy....we will kick ass

[QuadrupleOption]

I recall a few (at least 3) absolutely catchable balls that were dropped, and yes Fitz could have taken some off of them, but those drops aren't helping the completion percentage. If you take the drops away he would have been around ~50-53% on his first game coming back from an injury on the road against a P5 team.

Yep. If 3 of the drops were caught he'd have been 14-27 with 3 TDs. I'd take that all day every day.