MS St now favored in every game but one

[Coach007]

We are now favored to beat Auburn

http://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=401012304

55% chance.


Only team we are suppose to lose to is bama? we have a 17% chance to win!

[ShotgunDawg]

This doesn't surprise me. After seeing where Bill Connolly's S&P had Auburn ranked & now this, there is something that the metrics doesn't like about them.

I'm not sure of the formula but it's likely something with the OL & running game.

[msudawglb]

well, Auburn's total defense is ranked 34th and their total offense is 33rd. And their 3rd down conversion is ranked 76th.

Where as MSU's total defense is ranked 8th and their total offense is 12th. And their 3rd down conversion is ranked 14th.

[ShotgunDawg]

This doesn't surprise me. After seeing where Bill Connolly's S&P had Auburn ranked & now this, there is something that the metrics doesn't like about them.

I'm not sure of the formula but it's likely something with the OL & running game.

It intrigues me that the quants may be seeing something with Auburn that we aren't seeing, so I communicated with one of my buddies who really understands the formulas & algorithms involved with these metrics & he said that, like run differential in baseball, there is a HIGH correlation/signal between the best college football teams in the country & yards per play. He also said that, while there is a high correlation, you need a sample size of about 3 to 4 games before it becomes statistically significant. So, for fun I went back & looked at Auburn's first two games vs Washington & Alabama State & SURPRISE, they don't statically look like an elite team. Of note: we do look like an elite team.

Notice, not the score, but how statistically MSU handled Kansas State in near about the same fashion as Auburn handled Alabama State.

https://i.imgur.com/cRQqxhC.jpg

And since I know you're wondering, Ole Miss is giving up 5.9 yards per play this year thus far & gaining 9.3 ypp, which has to be tops in the country.

If you think OM's defense is bad now, they've already been on the field for 188 plays. That's a crazy amount of plays. Ole Miss' defense has played 54 more snaps than MSU's defense through two games. Ole Miss' defense may play the equivalent of an NFL schedule this year

[Bully13]

The Clarion Ledger does not approve of this optimism. We must tone down our enthusiasm.

[msbulldog]

Bully with your blonde sig, I find it hard to tone down my optimism or anything else.

[Commercecomet24]

It intrigues me that the quants may be seeing something with Auburn that we aren't seeing, so I communicated with one of my buddies who really understands the formulas & algorithms involved with these metrics & he said that, like run differential in baseball, there is a HIGH correlation/signal between the best college football teams in the country & yards per play. He also said that, while there is a high correlation, you need a sample size of about 3 to 4 games before it becomes statistically significant. So, for fun I went back & looked at Auburn's first two games vs Washington & Alabama State & SURPRISE, they don't statically look like an elite team. Of note: we do look like an elite team.

Notice, not the score, but how statistically MSU handled Kansas State in near about the same fashion as Auburn handled Alabama State.

https://i.imgur.com/cRQqxhC.jpg

And since I know you're wondering, Ole Miss is giving up 5.9 yards per play this year thus far & gaining 9.3 ypp, which has to be tops in the country.

If you think OM's defense is bad now, they've already been on the field for 188 plays. That's a crazy amount of plays. Ole Miss' defense has played 54 more snaps than MSU's defense through two games. Ole Miss' defense may play the equivalent of an NFL schedule this year

If there defense continues playing 90 snaps a game(which is extremely likely) those kids will be dead men walking 3/4 way through the season.

[timotheus]

Oh they now claim that the LB coach was allowed to call the Defense in the 2nd half against that high school team this past saturday. Optimism abounds in sharkland.

[Commercecomet24]

Oh they now claim that the LB coach was allowed to call the Defense in the 2nd half against that high school team this past saturday. Optimism abounds in sharkland.

lol it was the same defense. SI just ran out of gas after the pick 6 when they were going in to take the lead again. If they score there unm is in a dogfight til the end. Doesn't matter who's calling plays anyway there defense is small and slow. There secondary was getting beat by fcs receivers all day.

[ShotgunDawg]

Oh they now claim that the LB coach was allowed to call the Defense in the 2nd half against that high school team this past saturday. Optimism abounds in sharkland.

Richard Cross called BS on this narrative today. He was in the locker room.

[dawgday166]

It intrigues me that the quants may be seeing something with Auburn that we aren't seeing, so I communicated with one of my buddies who really understands the formulas & algorithms involved with these metrics & he said that, like run differential in baseball, there is a HIGH correlation/signal between the best college football teams in the country & yards per play. He also said that, while there is a high correlation, you need a sample size of about 3 to 4 games before it becomes statistically significant. So, for fun I went back & looked at Auburn's first two games vs Washington & Alabama State & SURPRISE, they don't statically look like an elite team. Of note: we do look like an elite team.

Notice, not the score, but how statistically MSU handled Kansas State in near about the same fashion as Auburn handled Alabama State.

https://i.imgur.com/cRQqxhC.jpg

And since I know you're wondering, Ole Miss is giving up 5.9 yards per play this year thus far & gaining 9.3 ypp, which has to be tops in the country.

If you think OM's defense is bad now, they've already been on the field for 188 plays. That's a crazy amount of plays. Ole Miss' defense has played 54 more snaps than MSU's defense through two games. Ole Miss' defense may play the equivalent of an NFL schedule this year

Pump the brakes ***