Prediction? Pain.
09-10-2018, 11:48 AM
I've heard and read several anecdotal comparisons between our early acclimation to Moorehead's offense and Penn St.'s in 2016. But I'd never really looked at the numbers before. So I figured I post them and get y'all's takes.
In their first four games in 2016, Penn. St. went 2-2. Double-digit home wins against Kent. St. and Temple, a close road loss to Pitt, and a blowout loss at Michigan. Kent St. ended the season 3-9, Pitt ended the season 8-5, and Michigan and Temple both ended up winning 10 games that year.
McSorley threw all the passes in those first four games and he and Barkley had the lion's share of the team's rushing attempts. Here's the damage:
Kent St.
Passing - 16/31 (51.6%), 209 yds (6.7 yds/att.), 2 TD, 0 INT
Rushing - 38 rushes, 145 yds (3.82 yds/rush), 1 TD
Total Offense - 69 plays, 354 yds, 5.13 yds/play, 33 points
Pitt (road)
Passing - 24/35 (68.6%), 332 yds (9.5 yds/att.), 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing - 31 rushes, 74 yds (2.39 yds/rush), 4 TD
Total Offense - 66 plays, 406 yds, 6.15 yds/play, 39 points
Temple
Passing - 18/24 (75%), 287 yds (12 yds/att.), 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing - 37 rushes, 116 yds (3.14 yds/rush), 3 TD
Total Offense - 61 plays, 403 yds, 6.61 yds/play, 34 points
Michigan (road)
Passing - 16/27 (59.3%), 121 yds (4.5 yds/att.), 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing - 28 rushes, 70 yds (2.5 yds/rush), 0 TD
Total Offense - 55 plays, 191 yds, 3.47 yds/play, 10 points
Also of note, Penn. St. lost seven fumbles in those first four games.
After starting 2-2, Penn. St. won nine games in a row, won the Big Ten championship, and lost by 3 in the Rose Bowl against a top ten USC team.
Ok, so let's check our numbers in the first two games. But keep in mind that, unlike Penn. St.'s first four games, our rushing and passing stats in our first two represent different personnel in each game -- different passers in both games and different rushing combos (Thompson and Hill mostly in game 1, Fitz and Hill mostly in game 2).
SFA
Passing - 15/34 (44.1%), 398 yds (11.7 yds/att.), 5 TD, 0 INT
Rushing - 37 rushes, 220 yds (5.95 yds/rush), 4 TD
Total Offense - 71 plays, 618 yds, 8.7 yds/play, 63 points
Kansas St. (road)
Passing - 11/27 (40.7%), 154 yds (5.7 yds/att.), 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing - 39 rushes, 384 yds (9.85 yds/rush), 2 TD
Total Offense - 66 plays, 538 yds, 8.15 yds/play, 31 points
And we haven't fumbled the ball yet.
While acknowledging that Kansas St. is not a 10- or maybe even an 8-win team and that SFA may not be quite as good as a 3-win Kent St., it's still an interesting comparison.
McSorley -- who, even though only a sophomore at the time, is one of the best QBs in college football right now and likely a better natural passer than either of Fitz or Key -- had a pretty uneven start in Moorhead's system. 3 interceptions, two games with stellar completion rates and two with ok-to-subpar rates. Solid yards per attempt in two, not-so-hot in the other two. And rushing the ball, he was downright bad. Including TFLs (and sacks, maybe?), he rushed 41 times in those four games for a grand total of 32 yards. Yes, that's less than 1 yard per carry. Yikes.
And Barkley was somewhat similar. He averaged 4.77, 4.25, 7.56, and 3.93 yards per rush in those four games and went over 100 yards only once (105 vs. Kent St.). And if you add in PSU's fifth game (a home win against a solid Minnesota team), it's even worse for him -- he rushed 20 times against Minn. for 63 yards (3.15 yards per carry). That may be more damning to PSU's o-line that year, but still.
Both of our QBs put up worse completion rates in each of their respective openers (though Key had unreal yards per attempt, no doubt in part due to the competition level). But based on McSorley's progression throughout the rest of the season in 2016 -- his yards per attempt dipped under 8 only twice in the next nine games (6.7 against Ohio St. and 6.4 against Rutgers (a game PSU won by 39 points)), he had 25 TDS to 5 INTS (and 3 of those picks came in the Rose Bowl), and passed for ~2,700 yards in those nine games -- we should be in okay shape. Even if Key and Fitz right now have lower floors and ceilings passing the ball than McSorley, their first games shouldn't portend certain doom for the rest of the season.
But even if there is less room to grow in the passing game, our rushing stats are so far beyond anything PSU was doing in its first four or five games under Moorhead that I'm not even sure what our potential is. If we can grow in that area at anywhere close to a similar rate that PSU did in its last eight or nine games -- McSorley upped his average yards-per-carry from 0.8 to 3.2 on his remaining rushes in 2016, and Barkley averaged at least 5.8 yards per rush in five of his last eight games that season after doing so only once in the first five games -- damnation, y'all.
My takeaway: Penn. St.'s passing and rushing attacks took four or five games to really gel under Moorhead's offense, even when they had phenoms McSorley and Barkley running the show. Taken as a whole, our offense looks to be quite far ahead of 2016 PSU at the same time in the season -- we've averaged more than 8 yards a play in both of our games. PSU didn't hit that mark in 2016 until its eighth game of the season.
I'm stoked to see how things shake out.
In their first four games in 2016, Penn. St. went 2-2. Double-digit home wins against Kent. St. and Temple, a close road loss to Pitt, and a blowout loss at Michigan. Kent St. ended the season 3-9, Pitt ended the season 8-5, and Michigan and Temple both ended up winning 10 games that year.
McSorley threw all the passes in those first four games and he and Barkley had the lion's share of the team's rushing attempts. Here's the damage:
Kent St.
Passing - 16/31 (51.6%), 209 yds (6.7 yds/att.), 2 TD, 0 INT
Rushing - 38 rushes, 145 yds (3.82 yds/rush), 1 TD
Total Offense - 69 plays, 354 yds, 5.13 yds/play, 33 points
Pitt (road)
Passing - 24/35 (68.6%), 332 yds (9.5 yds/att.), 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing - 31 rushes, 74 yds (2.39 yds/rush), 4 TD
Total Offense - 66 plays, 406 yds, 6.15 yds/play, 39 points
Temple
Passing - 18/24 (75%), 287 yds (12 yds/att.), 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing - 37 rushes, 116 yds (3.14 yds/rush), 3 TD
Total Offense - 61 plays, 403 yds, 6.61 yds/play, 34 points
Michigan (road)
Passing - 16/27 (59.3%), 121 yds (4.5 yds/att.), 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing - 28 rushes, 70 yds (2.5 yds/rush), 0 TD
Total Offense - 55 plays, 191 yds, 3.47 yds/play, 10 points
Also of note, Penn. St. lost seven fumbles in those first four games.
After starting 2-2, Penn. St. won nine games in a row, won the Big Ten championship, and lost by 3 in the Rose Bowl against a top ten USC team.
Ok, so let's check our numbers in the first two games. But keep in mind that, unlike Penn. St.'s first four games, our rushing and passing stats in our first two represent different personnel in each game -- different passers in both games and different rushing combos (Thompson and Hill mostly in game 1, Fitz and Hill mostly in game 2).
SFA
Passing - 15/34 (44.1%), 398 yds (11.7 yds/att.), 5 TD, 0 INT
Rushing - 37 rushes, 220 yds (5.95 yds/rush), 4 TD
Total Offense - 71 plays, 618 yds, 8.7 yds/play, 63 points
Kansas St. (road)
Passing - 11/27 (40.7%), 154 yds (5.7 yds/att.), 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing - 39 rushes, 384 yds (9.85 yds/rush), 2 TD
Total Offense - 66 plays, 538 yds, 8.15 yds/play, 31 points
And we haven't fumbled the ball yet.
While acknowledging that Kansas St. is not a 10- or maybe even an 8-win team and that SFA may not be quite as good as a 3-win Kent St., it's still an interesting comparison.
McSorley -- who, even though only a sophomore at the time, is one of the best QBs in college football right now and likely a better natural passer than either of Fitz or Key -- had a pretty uneven start in Moorhead's system. 3 interceptions, two games with stellar completion rates and two with ok-to-subpar rates. Solid yards per attempt in two, not-so-hot in the other two. And rushing the ball, he was downright bad. Including TFLs (and sacks, maybe?), he rushed 41 times in those four games for a grand total of 32 yards. Yes, that's less than 1 yard per carry. Yikes.
And Barkley was somewhat similar. He averaged 4.77, 4.25, 7.56, and 3.93 yards per rush in those four games and went over 100 yards only once (105 vs. Kent St.). And if you add in PSU's fifth game (a home win against a solid Minnesota team), it's even worse for him -- he rushed 20 times against Minn. for 63 yards (3.15 yards per carry). That may be more damning to PSU's o-line that year, but still.
Both of our QBs put up worse completion rates in each of their respective openers (though Key had unreal yards per attempt, no doubt in part due to the competition level). But based on McSorley's progression throughout the rest of the season in 2016 -- his yards per attempt dipped under 8 only twice in the next nine games (6.7 against Ohio St. and 6.4 against Rutgers (a game PSU won by 39 points)), he had 25 TDS to 5 INTS (and 3 of those picks came in the Rose Bowl), and passed for ~2,700 yards in those nine games -- we should be in okay shape. Even if Key and Fitz right now have lower floors and ceilings passing the ball than McSorley, their first games shouldn't portend certain doom for the rest of the season.
But even if there is less room to grow in the passing game, our rushing stats are so far beyond anything PSU was doing in its first four or five games under Moorhead that I'm not even sure what our potential is. If we can grow in that area at anywhere close to a similar rate that PSU did in its last eight or nine games -- McSorley upped his average yards-per-carry from 0.8 to 3.2 on his remaining rushes in 2016, and Barkley averaged at least 5.8 yards per rush in five of his last eight games that season after doing so only once in the first five games -- damnation, y'all.
My takeaway: Penn. St.'s passing and rushing attacks took four or five games to really gel under Moorhead's offense, even when they had phenoms McSorley and Barkley running the show. Taken as a whole, our offense looks to be quite far ahead of 2016 PSU at the same time in the season -- we've averaged more than 8 yards a play in both of our games. PSU didn't hit that mark in 2016 until its eighth game of the season.
I'm stoked to see how things shake out.