OT - Hurricane Florence

[Technetium]

Always enjoy the meteorology discussion here, so I'm starting a thread about Florence. Since I live in Durham, NC, I have personal interest in this storm and (especially) its inland impact.

Anyone here watching it want to chime in with thoughts/updates/projections on this storm?

[starkvegasdawg]

Last I saw the latest thinking is a landfall just above the SC/NC border as a cat 4 which it is now. The hope is it doesn't keep strengthening up to a 5.

[MetEdDawg]

Last I saw the latest thinking is a landfall just above the SC/NC border as a cat 4 which it is now. The hope is it doesn't keep strengthening up to a 5.

I think a 5 is becoming increasingly likely. At the 11 AM Atlantic Standard time update the winds were at 115 MPH. The NHC ended up doing an intermediate advisory one hour later (which they almost never do) and upgraded the winds to 130 MPH which now makes Florence a Category 4. The NHC intensity forecast showed 130 MPH winds approximately 12 hours after the 11 AM update. The fact that they already exist now is not good. Additionally, with 85 degree water temps and virtually zero shear, the projection for continued intensification is a virtual given.

This will potentially be the worst natural disaster in US history. With the combination of the Cat 4/5 winds and surge, the rainfall normally associated with a hurricane of this magnitude, plus the likelihood of stalling out for 2-4 days over virtually the same area, we are talking an extremely dangerous situation here. This is going to be very very bad for a large area of the Eastern US.

[Cooterpoot]

I'd get the hell out of both states. It's going to be plague-like misery if it comes in at a 4 or 5.

[Leroy Jenkins]

Whatever category it is, no storm this big has ever made it as far north as the projections. So that is somewhat noteworthy. Maybe I'll post some pics when it starts to roll in to the OBX.

[starkvegasdawg]

I think a 5 is becoming increasingly likely. At the 11 AM Atlantic Standard time update the winds were at 115 MPH. The NHC ended up doing an intermediate advisory one hour later (which they almost never do) and upgraded the winds to 130 MPH which now makes Florence a Category 4. The NHC intensity forecast showed 130 MPH winds approximately 12 hours after the 11 AM update. The fact that they already exist now is not good. Additionally, with 85 degree water temps and virtually zero shear, the projection for continued intensification is a virtual given.

This will potentially be the worst natural disaster in US history. With the combination of the Cat 4/5 winds and surge, the rainfall normally associated with a hurricane of this magnitude, plus the likelihood of stalling out for 2-4 days over virtually the same area, we are talking an extremely dangerous situation here. This is going to be very very bad for a large area of the Eastern US.

My hopes on it not making it to a 5 are based on two things.

1. It's hard for a storm to maintain peak intensity for long stretches. Not impossible, but hard. It'll do an eye wall replacement cycle or something to lower intensity.

2. It's not exactly setting a record pace so maybe it can upwell some colder water and weaken itself. The mitigating factor on that is it's crossing the Gulf Stream and it's bathtub temp water.

[WinningIsRelentless]

We just got the alert order from DHS for our USAR Task Force Team to be prepared to mobilize and headout with 24 hour notice.

[Johnson85]

Always enjoy the meteorology discussion here, so I'm starting a thread about Florence. Since I live in Durham, NC, I have personal interest in this storm and (especially) its inland impact.

Anyone here watching it want to chime in with thoughts/updates/projections on this storm?

Any clue how elevated the places are that it's projected to hit? It's always amazing to me to see places subject to hurricanes built at 10 foot elevations (or lower).

[BrunswickDawg]

All I can add is that I'm glad that it tracked north and I am out of the "cone of concern". There is still damage being repaired here from Irma, and I don't know if our community could handle 3 storms in 3 years.

Hate it for OBX and any impacted.

[BrunswickDawg]

Any clue how elevated the places are that it's projected to hit? It's always amazing to me to see places subject to hurricanes built at 10 foot elevations (or lower).

Well, any coastal area is going to be roughly 0 - 15 ft or so in elevation. It's rare on the mid-atlantic or south-atlantic seaboard to be any higher than that directly on the coast.
Finish floor elevations will be primarily impacted by construction dates. The OBX have had enough storms in the past 25 years that a lot of construction is newer and meets 120 mph wind ratings and FEMA flood elevation minimums that went into effect in the 80s and 90s. But, inland is a different story. They are less prepared because unless they are in a flood plain, they don't have FEMA flood elevation requirements. NC has also been in a population and building boom - so areas that didn't flood 15 years ago have more impervious surfaces, more run off, and more storm water issues to develop (think Houston last year).

[Johnson85]

Well, any coastal area is going to be roughly 0 - 15 ft or so in elevation. It's rare on the mid-atlantic or south-atlantic seaboard to be any higher than that directly on the coast.
Finish floor elevations will be primarily impacted by construction dates. The OBX have had enough storms in the past 25 years that a lot of construction is newer and meets 120 mph wind ratings and FEMA flood elevation minimums that went into effect in the 80s and 90s. But, inland is a different story. They are less prepared because unless they are in a flood plain, they don't have FEMA flood elevation requirements. NC has also been in a population and building boom - so areas that didn't flood 15 years ago have more impervious surfaces, more run off, and more storm water issues to develop (think Houston last year).

That's basically what I'm asking. The flood elevations that went into effect in the 80's and 90's are generally insufficient. If a category 4 has time to build up a storm surge and hits directly, it probably won't matter that much, as that's going to end with a surge that probably exceeds even newer BFEs. But just curous whether everything was basically on pilings to at least 15 ft elevations, or whether a lot of stuff is at the 8-12 feet BFEs.

[BrunswickDawg]

That's basically what I'm asking. The flood elevations that went into effect in the 80's and 90's are generally insufficient. If a category 4 has time to build up a storm surge and hits directly, it probably won't matter that much, as that's going to end with a surge that probably exceeds even newer BFEs. But just curous whether everything was basically on pilings to at least 15 ft elevations, or whether a lot of stuff is at the 8-12 feet BFEs.

Depends on where you are. I know a lot of Sullivan's Island SC, Pawleys Island, SC, a lot of Hilton Head, are built on pilings and are a solid 8-10 ft. in the air on 4-6 ft. ground elevation. Most of those communities have a Finish Floor Elevation requirement of +1 or +2 above the BFE. The more southern areas of the OBX look like they are all 8-10 above BFE glancing at google maps, but some places like Carolina Beach, Wilmington Beach - older Beach towns - have more of a mish mash and are mostly just above grade.

More established beach towns that haven't been hit by storms in a long time will be the places to watch along with the mainland areas adjacent to the marsh. With Irma, our flooding was more intense. I am 2 1/2 blocks in on the mainland in a 1930s neighborhood. I watched the storm surge roll up the street with the tide to about 50 yards from my house - oddly right to where the new (2018 GA got new maps) FEMA maps show a break in the flood zones between AE11 and the X .02 zones.

However - I can say this too. I would expect those ares with higher BFE requirements to possibly be hit hard with lots and lots of wind damage. Politically, those have been a lot harder to implement because there aren't federal requirements. So unless a community has decided to be aggressive and implement some of the Florida wind standards, you are going to see a lot of roofs blown off, etc. My community is very, very, lax on building code and you saw it in a lot of the damage on St. Simons last year.

[RocketDawg]

My hopes on it not making it to a 5 are based on two things.

1. It's hard for a storm to maintain peak intensity for long stretches. Not impossible, but hard. It'll do an eye wall replacement cycle or something to lower intensity.

2. It's not exactly setting a record pace so maybe it can upwell some colder water and weaken itself. The mitigating factor on that is it's crossing the Gulf Stream and it's bathtub temp water.

Yeah, but I think it'll be a 5, at least for a short time, tomorrow. It's up to 140 already and still has some hot water to go across. Probably a strong 3 or low 4 at landfall, but so was Katrina. This one can be devastating.

[MetEdDawg]

New update. Now up to 140 MPH winds. Expectation is for close to Cat 5 but there may be potential for mild weakening before landfall. But still Cat 4 strength. However increased expansion of the wind field is expected to cover a very large area.

[Bully13]

The odds also continue to increase for it to stall before hitting landfall creating massive coastal flooding. Folks need to GTFO.

[the59dawg]

I think a 5 is becoming increasingly likely. At the 11 AM Atlantic Standard time update the winds were at 115 MPH. The NHC ended up doing an intermediate advisory one hour later (which they almost never do) and upgraded the winds to 130 MPH which now makes Florence a Category 4. The NHC intensity forecast showed 130 MPH winds approximately 12 hours after the 11 AM update. The fact that they already exist now is not good. Additionally, with 85 degree water temps and virtually zero shear, the projection for continued intensification is a virtual given.

This will potentially be the worst natural disaster in US history. With the combination of the Cat 4/5 winds and surge, the rainfall normally associated with a hurricane of this magnitude, plus the likelihood of stalling out for 2-4 days over virtually the same area, we are talking an extremely dangerous situation here. This is going to be very very bad for a large area of the Eastern US.

Will be tough to top the impact of cat 5 Katrina in early 2000's on MS gulf coast.

[KOdawg1]

Will be tough to top the impact of cat 5 Katrina in early 2000's on MS gulf coast.

Katrina was only a Cat 3 when it made landfall. Still bad though.

This isn't looking good at all

[msbulldog]

Katrina was only a Cat 3 when it made landfall. Still bad though.

This isn't looking good at all

30 foot waves.

[msbulldog]

30 foot waves.

Protected by barrier islands!

[Pit Bull]

I'd get the hell out of both states. It's going to be plague-like misery if it comes in at a 4 or 5.

Yeah....that area and the whole eastern seaboard is practically swamp anyway. Gonna be a really bad flood event. And even if it makes in inland to W.Virginia….wouldn't want to be there either.....draining from the raining in WV hills is not good for the valleys!

[TheRef]

Okay...so I just caught myself up on everything said in here. A few things:

1. Florence is going to reach Cat 5 by the end of tomorrow based on everything I've seen. However, I think Florence makes landfall as a mid-tier Cat 4 (125-130 MPH winds).

2. This will be one of, if not the, strongest Hurricane to make landfall on North Carolina in a long time.

3. Storm surge will be a major factor in this system, coastal areas should watch closely as the NHC Surge forecasters will be issuing a Surge Watch soon.

4. Florence shouldn't be compared to other systems, it isn't fair.

5. Florence is MASSIVE. Right now, the diameter of Florence's circulation is over 400 miles. For comparison, Katrina was 350 miles wide at landfall. Harvey? 200 miles.

This system is not to be messed with. When you see chasers coming internationally to chase this storm, it's a big deal. Oklahoma is sending their mobile doppler radars to the coast for Hurricane. This is going to be a well-studied and well-watched events. Heed the warnings and advisories given to you, and don't take this lightly. Residents in those areas haven't seen a system like this in a LONG time make landfall.

[parabrave]

Always enjoy the meteorology discussion here, so I'm starting a thread about Florence. Since I live in Durham, NC, I have personal interest in this storm and (especially) its inland impact.

Anyone here watching it want to chime in with thoughts/updates/projections on this storm?

I remember back in 1984 when I was stationed at Fr Bragg there was a major hurricane headed toward Wilmington then projected to go up the Cape Fear. It got to the Coast then just blew itself out. Hopefully rgis does the same thing. Used to love to spend free weekends at Carolina Beach. Beside Wilmington, Jacksonville and the Strand not much there till you get to Fayetteville but timberland and farms.

[RocketDawg]

If I heard him right, Mike Sidell with The Weather Channel (he's on Wrightsville Beach, at Wilmington) said if you live in Wilmington above the expected storm surge or flood height, there's no need to evacuate. I think I'd either be gone or leaving tomorrow if I lived there.

[stungeon]

I grew up in MS but live in NC now. I was in MS and can still remember Hurricane Camille. I was here in NC for Hurricane Fran which was just a cat 3. I was amazed at how much damage Fran caused. Not looking forward to this one.

[TheRef]

If I heard him right, Mike Sidell with The Weather Channel (he's on Wrightsville Beach, at Wilmington) said if you live in Wilmington above the expected storm surge or flood height, there's no need to evacuate. I think I'd either be gone or leaving tomorrow if I lived there.

If he actually said that, then that's irresponsible and horrible to do as a on-screen Meteorologist. I seriously doubt he did that.

[BrunswickDawg]

I grew up in MS but live in NC now. I was in MS and can still remember Hurricane Camille. I was here in NC for Hurricane Fran which was just a cat 3. I was amazed at how much damage Fran caused. Not looking forward to this one.

After riding out Matthew and Irma - both about Cat 1 when they passed here - ain't no way I'd hang out for a Cat 3 or 4.

[RocketDawg]

If he actually said that, then that's irresponsible and horrible to do as a on-screen Meteorologist. I seriously doubt he did that.

He's not on air tonight but I'm virtually certain that's what he said earlier this afternoon. Said something about unless there are trees in your area that are a risk of being blown over. Surely I misheard - it doesn't jive with what the rest on TWC are saying. He's one of the better ones, I think.

[Cooterpoot]

They’re saying cat 5 at landfall now. East coast is about to be extinct if people don’t get the hell out.

[WinningIsRelentless]

Got the word this morning my USAR Team is to leave out at 0600 in the morning to Jacksonville, NC. They want us to preplan/survive on Thursday. I have to say that?s a first, so they are expecting a @@@@show.

[DownwardDawg]

He's not on air tonight but I'm virtually certain that's what he said earlier this afternoon. Said something about unless there are trees in your area that are a risk of being blown over. Surely I misheard - it doesn't jive with what the rest on TWC are saying. He's one of the better ones, I think.

I heard him saying just the opposite yesterday. He said even if you live inland and may not get the strongest winds or water surge , you are still subject to catastrophic flooding. He’s been telling everyone to get the hail out. At least that’s all I heard yesterday.

[MetEdDawg]

Winds have decreased to 130 MPH, but it looks like Florence is undergoing an eyewall replacement. NOAA flight in was able to observe a distinct outer and inner eyewall to signify this replacement cycle.

I would expect winds to get above 140 MPH today if the replacement cycle is able to complete itself and be realized in the wind profile, which I believe it will before the day is over. It also looks like the NWS will be going to 3 hour updates as it approaches instead of the 6 hour updates normally associated with storms in the open Atlantic.

[Technetium]

Thoughts on inland impact (e.g., near Durham, NC)? I live on a big hill, so not worried about flooding, but am concerned about power outages and/or wind damage. Debating taking family to MS for a long weekend (or more if power fails and remains out at home in NC).

[Johnson85]

Okay...so I just caught myself up on everything said in here. A few things:

1. Florence is going to reach Cat 5 by the end of tomorrow based on everything I've seen. However, I think Florence makes landfall as a mid-tier Cat 4 (125-130 MPH winds).

2. This will be one of, if not the, strongest Hurricane to make landfall on North Carolina in a long time.

3. Storm surge will be a major factor in this system, coastal areas should watch closely as the NHC Surge forecasters will be issuing a Surge Watch soon.

4. Florence shouldn't be compared to other systems, it isn't fair.

5. Florence is MASSIVE. Right now, the diameter of Florence's circulation is over 400 miles. For comparison, Katrina was 350 miles wide at landfall. Harvey? 200 miles.

This system is not to be messed with. When you see chasers coming internationally to chase this storm, it's a big deal. Oklahoma is sending their mobile doppler radars to the coast for Hurricane. This is going to be a well-studied and well-watched events. Heed the warnings and advisories given to you, and don't take this lightly. Residents in those areas haven't seen a system like this in a LONG time make landfall.

Unless something changes, where ever it hits, they are going to start measuring time by Florence just like Mississippi did with Camille and then Katrina. Things will be the year before Florence, or a few years after florence, etc.

[Cooterpoot]

Tech, I was almost 2 hours inland for Katrina and we lost power for 2 weeks. No fuel and limited food because you'll have no ice or fridge if the power grid takes a hit.
I never thought much about a hurricane until Katrina. I'd get the hell out of state now. Can't imagine a Cat 5.

[Johnson85]

Thoughts on inland impact (e.g., near Durham, NC)? I live on a big hill, so not worried about flooding, but am concerned about power outages and/or wind damage. Debating taking family to MS for a long weekend (or more if power fails and remains out at home in NC).

That far in, if your house is solid, your real risk is from tornadoes unless you have some big trees that can hit your house. Coming from tornado alley, I would look at it as a convenience matter as we've never evacuated for tornado risks.

If it's not a big deal to get to MS for a long weekend and it's a trip you need/want to take at some point anyway, this would probably be a good time to do it. One caveat is I'd want somebody to go check on your house after the storm. If I didn't have somebody that could/would do that for me, I'd probably stay. Just a lot of minor damage that can turn into major damage if nobody is there to react. On the flip side, if I had young kids, I'd probably go ahead and go.

[Johnson85]

Tech, I was almost 2 hours inland for Katrina and we lost power for 2 weeks. No fuel and limited food because you'll have no ice or fridge if the power grid takes a hit.
I never thought much about a hurricane until Katrina. I'd get the hell out of state now. Can't imagine a Cat 5.

Losing power that far inland was reflective of how strong the storm was. But being out for two weeks was more likely a reflection of Entergy than what other places should expect.

[Technetium]

I do want to make the trip anyway (my sister is giving birth to her second child this week), and I have a toddler. House is sturdy, but surrounded by large trees (all healthy but still).

Likely to make the trip now. Convenient excuse to go see my new nephew, and I can work remotely easily enough (more easily than if I'm stuck at home without power!). And I also remember Katrina - I was in Starkvegas at the time for college, but my family is from Meridian and they were without power for a long time.

[WinningIsRelentless]

Losing power that far inland was reflective of how strong the storm was. But being out for two weeks was more likely a reflection of Entergy than what other places should expect.

That?s a lie. Contractors come in from all over the country and the power grind restoration in major storms like that are dictated my FEMA. Hospitals and essential agencies are getting powered restored first and personal residents last.

[stungeon]

Tech, I was here for Fran and that was a Cat 3. Some people were without power for weeks and tons of trees through the roofs. Hard to get around with trees all over the roads. If it is easy for you to get out of here for a few days I would go.

[Cloak]

Will there be much of an impact in North ATL?

[MetEdDawg]

Will there be much of an impact in North ATL?

Depends a little still. Track is still not quite as certain as I would like. Model fluctuations are showing some odd scenarios still.

As of right now, increased winds would be the biggest potential impact. Rain could potentially increase depending on the track once on land, which I will again emphasize is not quite set in stone yet as multiple models have very different scenarios.

[Cooterpoot]

Losing power that far inland was reflective of how strong the storm was. But being out for two weeks was more likely a reflection of Entergy than what other places should expect.

No, it was due to the large number of trees that fell on lines. Rural areas don't have underground utilities. I'm telling you, the damage is far-reaching.

[Johnson85]

That?s a lie. Contractors come in from all over the country and the power grind restoration in major storms like that are dictated my FEMA. Hospitals and essential agencies are getting powered restored first and personal residents last.

Well, entergy took longer than utilities more directly impacted by the storm. Probably some of the help from their mutual aid agreements was sucked up by the coast but also probably they didn't manage their right of way clearing as well as they could and they also hadn't invested to the same extent in their grid to begin with, so it was less robust.

[Johnson85]

No, it was due to the large number of trees that fell on lines. Rural areas don't have underground utilities. I'm telling you, the damage is far-reaching.

It is far reaching and in rural areas, yes, if you are on a low priority line, it can take a while (and god help you if your service line itself is where the break is and you are out in the boonies) and in Entergy's defense, they actually do serve rural areas because of picking up warren county and capital electric's service territory, but generally, no, if you are in a place like Durham 150 miles inland, you shouldn't have to worry about being out of power for two weeks and if you are, it will likely be an pretty local issue and you will have nearby friends and businesses with service.

[BrunswickDawg]

I would not take being 2 hours inland as any sign of safety or a place where there will be no impact. Sustained 30-45 mph winds for hours and substantial rain amounts will cause problems and damage. Any higher winds and damage increased exponentially. Irma caused large power outages in Atlanta last year and lots of tree damage. Irma made landfall in South Florida - Atlanta is 10 hours inland from landfall. I'm 4 hours north of where Irma made landfall and was 3 hours east of the eyewall and saw tremendous damage and flooding - from rain, roughly 24 hours of winds above 45 mph, and tidal surge. That was a low 1 down grading to a TS.

People need to take this seriously.

[Political Hack]

We just got the alert order from DHS for our USAR Task Force Team to be prepared to mobilize and headout with 24 hour notice.

Where you stationed out of? Part of the Harvey deployment? PR?

[WinningIsRelentless]

Where you stationed out of? Part of the Harvey deployment? PR?

Harvey was more of swift water team focus and our group specialty is on collapses and confined space rescue so we didn?t go. On PR they used the north part of the country because they hadn?t been activated in a couple years.

[basedog]

Well, entergy took longer than utilities more directly impacted by the storm. Probably some of the help from their mutual aid agreements was sucked up by the coast but also probably they didn't manage their right of way clearing as well as they could and they also hadn't invested to the same extent in their grid to begin with, so it was less robust.

I work storm restoration, our company is the Alabama Football program when it comes to logistics, first in the country to do logistics for power companies. Entergy is one of the best across the country when it comes to storm restoration work. No one was prepared for a storm like Katrina, it's not just hooking up a service line to a house. Sub Stations are usually turned off due to flood surge but they are destroyed many times and that isn't a quick fix. Distribution lines when damaged take days to weeks to fix.

Be lucky when you have a company like Entergy as I can tell you across the country so many have not a clue about the logistics of a storm. Our company set up 67 staging sites for 5 power companies in 6 States, we supported 24,000 crews restoring power.

[DownwardDawg]

That?s a lie. Contractors come in from all over the country and the power grind restoration in major storms like that are dictated my FEMA. Hospitals and essential agencies are getting powered restored first and personal residents last.

I live in covington county. We were without power for almost 2 weeks also. And you are correct, I've never seen that many power companies from so many states in my life. Power companies from Michigan, Kentucky, Tennesse, Missouri, etc..... It was crazy.

[Cooterpoot]

It is far reaching and in rural areas, yes, if you are on a low priority line, it can take a while (and god help you if your service line itself is where the break is and you are out in the boonies) and in Entergy's defense, they actually do serve rural areas because of picking up warren county and capital electric's service territory, but generally, no, if you are in a place like Durham 150 miles inland, you shouldn't have to worry about being out of power for two weeks and if you are, it will likely be an pretty local issue and you will have nearby friends and businesses with service.

Our power company shut down the power grid at the time of landfall to prevent downed lines from hurting people. They didn't turn the lines on until they were cleared and repaired.

[Political Hack]

Harvey was more of swift water team focus and our group specialty is on collapses and confined space rescue so we didn?t go. On PR they used the north part of the country because they hadn?t been activated in a couple years.

PR is run out of region 2, which is probably why they used those teams. I know they deployed all the NDMS teams to Harvey and didn't have any capacity left for PR. With that speciality, when the New Madrid pops you'll be working 24/7 for about 2 months straight.

Good luck with the deployment. Love to hear how it goes when you have time.

[RocketDawg]

I live in covington county. We were without power for almost 2 weeks also. And you are correct, I've never seen that many power companies from so many states in my life. Power companies from Michigan, Kentucky, Tennesse, Missouri, etc..... It was crazy.

Power companies from other states come in when there's tornado damage also. They were all over the place here in April 2011 when the tornado destroyed the main lines from Brown's Ferry and we were without power for a week. Of course, our guys go to their aid when the need arises.

[TheRef]

PR is run out of region 2, which is probably why they used those teams. I know they deployed all the NDMS teams to Harvey and didn't have any capacity left for PR. With that speciality, when the New Madrid pops you'll be working 24/7 for about 2 months straight.

Good luck with the deployment. Love to hear how it goes when you have time.

Yeah. FEMA Region II has NY, NJ, and PR. The reason being is that Region III has MD, VA, PA

FEMA Region IV is the main Hurricane region with your coastal states being: NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, MS and secondary states of TN, KY

Now we are sending multiple crews in on our end as well.

[RocketDawg]

Wind speed back up to 140 now.

[BrunswickDawg]

Yeah. FEMA Region II has NY, NJ, and PR. The reason being is that Region III has MD, VA, PA

FEMA Region IV is the main Hurricane region with your coastal states being: NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, MS and secondary states of TN, KY

Now we are sending multiple crews in on our end as well.

Hope FEMA Region 4 has better recovery staff this year. The folks we had come in after Mathew were fantastic. Last year's crew after Irma were like monkeys ****ing a football. Totally clueless.

[TheRef]

Hope FEMA Region 4 has better recovery staff this year. The folks we had come in after Mathew were fantastic. Last year's crew after Irma were like monkeys ****ing a football. Totally clueless.

Recovery is usually done by FEMA Reserve Corps that are basically contracted out to locations. It sucks. But hopefully with FEMA rolling out the FIT teams to each state, it'll help.

[starkvegasdawg]

History of the hurricane hunters. The ultimate storm chasers.

https://www.dvidshub.net/news/printable/221510

[Pit Bull]

Has anyone seen the latest probability spaghetti tracks. One noodle runs as far inland and over Memphis. Another noodle runs right over the Golden Triangle region of MS. The meteorologist said that depending on a high pressure system over the Ohio Valley, it could determine where the storm is guided into the U.S. He went on to say while not likely, there was a possibility that if this northern system pushed south, it would actually turn the hurricane system toward the southwest and not into the northeast. In this scenario, the storm would turn toward Texas and go over Tennessee and maybe south of Tennessee. I don't think there is much chance of this happening, but may bear worth watching.

[RocketDawg]

Saw it a few minutes ago on The Weather Channel. Basically, there's not a good place for it to go.

[TheRef]

Sometimes I wish spaghetti models weren't displayed without being properly explained....

[starkvegasdawg]

The burn scars in eastern TN sure don't need a tropical system.

[Dawgs31]

They seem to keep pushing its path further south once it gets close to land. Could we see TS force winds down in Savannah and Brunswick?

[BrunswickDawg]

They seem to keep pushing its path further south once it gets close to land. Could we see TS force winds down in Savannah and Brunswick?

The 8:00 makes me think we might. Good surfing for me this weekend lol.

[WinningIsRelentless]

The 8:00 makes me think we might. Good surfing for me this weekend lol.

We just left a meeting with FEMA IC and looks like within the next couple hours we will be moving to Charleston, SC from Jacksonville, NC.

[MetEdDawg]

We just left a meeting with FEMA IC and looks like within the next couple hours we will be moving to Charleston, SC from Jacksonville, NC.

That's probably a good call. This is as challenging a hurricane forecast as I've seen in a while. Irma was extremely difficult with a east side FL peninsula or west side FL peninsula landfall and the flip flopping.

But this is going to be very challenging. You could get torrential rains and storm surge over such a large area because of the potential jog to the south once Florence approaches the coast. It's going to be a rough next couple of days pinpointing this thing. I just hope folks in southern SC and coastal GA are prepared and heeded early warnings to prep in case. They may ultimately get some of this.

Next update comes out at 10 AM CDT.

[Roy Munson]

Keep'em coming, boys. Love seeing these weather updates. Awful but fascinating stuff.

[Leroy Jenkins]

Looks like ol Leroy might be spared with a southward turn.

[WinningIsRelentless]

That's probably a good call. This is as challenging a hurricane forecast as I've seen in a while. Irma was extremely difficult with a east side FL peninsula or west side FL peninsula landfall and the flip flopping.

But this is going to be very challenging. You could get torrential rains and storm surge over such a large area because of the potential jog to the south once Florence approaches the coast. It's going to be a rough next couple of days pinpointing this thing. I just hope folks in southern SC and coastal GA are prepared and heeded early warnings to prep in case. They may ultimately get some of this.

Next update comes out at 10 AM CDT.

It?s interesting in the fact that they are keeping the Swift water guys up in VA as of right now.

[parabrave]

The 8:00 makes me think we might. Good surfing for me this weekend lol.



looks like Pedro better take down the Sombrero at South of the Border.

[BrunswickDawg]

looks like Pedro better take down the Sombrero at South of the Border.

That sombrero made it thru Hurricane Hugo and many relentless strains of trucker based STDs - I'm sure it's good to go.

Does look like I'll be getting a good dose of wind now, so surf will definitely be up Saturday morning. I'll be hanging 10 on some 4' swales if the rip current isn't too severe.

[Roy Munson]

What's the latest, gurus?

[starkvegasdawg]

What's the latest, gurus?

Weakened slightly and may be taking a slightly more southerly track. Steering currents starting to break down. Long range track iffy.

[Roy Munson]

Well the weakening is good but still expected to stall and be at least a cat 3? If the track is iffy seems that could be more dangerous as some may not have left that might now be vulnerable. How far south y'all thinking now for landing? SC?

[starkvegasdawg]

Here's latest thinking.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL062018_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/212431_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[TheRef]

Well the weakening is good but still expected to stall and be at least a cat 3? If the track is iffy seems that could be more dangerous as some may not have left that might now be vulnerable. How far south y'all thinking now for landing? SC?

Okay, so it does look like it'll make landfall as a Cat 3 still, however, it's gonna sit on the NC/SC border for AT LEAST 48 hours, probably 72 and dump rain. Still calling for 30+ inches along the coastlines and surge that's very strong. TN is sending more resources to the east. Georgia has also declared a State of Emergency to deploy more resources. If you are along the East coast in any of VA, NC, SC, or GA, I'd prepare. If you're being told to evacuate, and you still are able to, PLEASE leave. Just saw today that an island in NC has 200 people on it that refused to leave and now they're stuck there with no emergency responders. USCG has announced that they won't do any missions along the coastline during the storm. They've moved all resources inland. Please, take the advice of local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center. They don't do this for their own sakes.

[TheRef]

Latest advisory from the NHC

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dm7sbuPUcAAMDnE.jpg

[Roy Munson]

Damn, nice update. I can go find the cone map. Hell I can find the score of a game, but id much rather hear the details from someone. Thanks.

[starkvegasdawg]

Reading a tweet from a chaser/met on the scene he is mentioning shear starting to have an effect on the storm and dry air now working in. Florence may, possibly, have seen its strongest and be on a weakening trend.

[MetEdDawg]

Saw a tweet that stated roughly 200 people stayed on Ocracoke Island. I'm just stunned by that.

[DownwardDawg]

Saw a tweet that stated roughly 200 people stayed on Ocracoke Island. I'm just stunned by that.

They’re stupid. And if the storm does die down some and they survive, they’ll think they’re smarter than everyone else.

[TheRef]

They’re stupid. And if the storm does die down some and they survive, they’ll think they’re smarter than everyone else.

Yeah that was the one that I was talking about earlier. Ferry service has stopped. Emergency Services has said they won't respond. And now the USCG said they weren't flying in the storm. So basically they're SOL

[Bully13]

So it's now downgraded to a Cat 2?

My brother is going to ride it out 20 miles from the beach in Wilmington, NC while wife and kids head for high ground.

He's a Marine so that's just how he rolls. He's always admitted it takes a few loose screws to be a Marine. He's proving it uhGAIN.

[Cooterpoot]

The hurricane of a lifetime*

[Leroy Jenkins]

The Neuse behind the house...


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dm-z9eKXsAAj9fb?format=jpg&name=small

Normally, you can walk out 10 ft past that tree. I figure I have ~12ft to go before it gets to the back door. Only expecting 8ft more surge max, probably 6 more.

[Bully13]

The Neuse behind the house...


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dm-z9eKXsAAj9fb?format=jpg&name=small

Normally, you can walk out 10 ft past that tree. I figure I have ~12ft to go before it gets to the back door. Only expecting 8ft more surge max, probably 6 more.

damn Leroy. can you keep us updated? You gonna ride it out? can you divulge what town you are in?

[Political Hack]

Saw a tweet that stated roughly 200 people stayed on Ocracoke Island. I'm just stunned by that.

That's dumb as hell. I've been there before and there's no reasources there outside of what gets shipped in. If they get wiped out, they'll be in a one hell of a hurt. More importantly, their selfishness will take emergency responders away from other people who can't help themselves (elderly, poor, disabled). After seeing what just happened on PR island you'd think they'd recognize the dangers and logistical challenges.

[Cooterpoot]

The Neuse behind the house...


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dm-z9eKXsAAj9fb?format=jpg&name=small

Normally, you can walk out 10 ft past that tree. I figure I have ~12ft to go before it gets to the back door. Only expecting 8ft more surge max, probably 6 more.

Hope you've got sandbags and insurance. Good luck! That's too close for me.

[Cooterpoot]

Thanks Flo for getting us on ESPN2 this weekend. Preciate it!

[TheRef]

The hurricane of a lifetime*

Still can be. Surge is a bitch

[TheRef]

Latest rainfall forecast from NWS Wilmington

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dm_Ry60XgAYwDtl.jpg

[Leroy Jenkins]

damn Leroy. can you keep us updated? You gonna ride it out? can you divulge what town you are in?

Sure. I'm around Havelock on the Neuse river. Gotta stick around for work.

Here's the same shot about an hour later. Looks like its up another 12-15 inches (roughly 8ft of stairs there for reference).And like I said earlier, there is normally beach out past that tree for another 10ish feet.


I don't expect much more than 6ft here, that's easily within my comfort zone.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dm_WvdfWsAI8Hsr.jpg

A few days ago they were talking 15ft, that would not have been good, I would have needed some waders. I think it peaks at around 6:00 pm Eastern, or another 5 feet, whichever comes first. High tide is around 12am midnight so that's good.

I'm more irritated that my phone keeps alerting me that it's a high pollen day.

[Commercecomet24]

Praying for all y'all in the path of this thing!

[West Tn Dawg]

The Neuse behind the house...


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dm-z9eKXsAAj9fb?format=jpg&name=small

Normally, you can walk out 10 ft past that tree. I figure I have ~12ft to go before it gets to the back door. Only expecting 8ft more surge max, probably 6 more.

Why do I not see anything?

[DownwardDawg]

Why do I not see anything?

IDK because the pics are awesome.

[RocketDawg]

Seems like the predicted storm track and landfall location have been really good with this storm. The track after it gets on land has been all over the place though, and the predicted storm intensity has been way off. I don't remember a storm forecast being so far off in the recent past.

[RocketDawg]

IDK because the pics are awesome.

They are indeed. Hope the water doesn't get too much higher.

[RocketDawg]

The Neuse behind the house...

Normally, you can walk out 10 ft past that tree. I figure I have ~12ft to go before it gets to the back door. Only expecting 8ft more surge max, probably 6 more.

I had no idea what "the Neuse" was until I googled it. Thought it was the type of pine tree in the picture. :)

[TimberBeast]

Leroy, how’s it going? I know what it’s like to see waves breaking in your backyard. Did the surge get higher? Hope you’re doing ok.

[Leroy Jenkins]

Leroy, how’s it going? I know what it’s like to see waves breaking in your backyard. Did the surge get higher? Hope you’re doing ok.

I'll check it out when it gets light. Don't feel too bad for me when I say it's 12ft from there to the house I'm talking elevation; water surge wise. Its probably 100 yards horizontally.

[RocketDawg]

The forecasters were certainly right about one thing ... the storm is basically stalling. It's almost stationary just SW of Wilmington. The wind's no longer a huge problem, but water certainly is.

[West Tn Dawg]

The forecasters were certainly right about one thing ... the storm is basically stalling. It's almost stationary just SW of Wilmington. The wind's no longer a huge problem, but water certainly is.

Wait a minute! I just saw a weather reporter that could barely stand up for all the wind!**

[Pit Bull]

Four people would be alive today had they evacuated when first told to. Sad.

[TUSK]

So it's now downgraded to a Cat 2?

My brother is going to ride it out 20 miles from the beach in Wilmington, NC while wife and kids head for high ground.

He's a Marine so that's just how he rolls. He's always admitted it takes a few loose screws to be a Marine. He's proving it uhGAIN.

Hey, hey, hey....

https://www.emojirequest.com/images/CrazyEmoji.jpg

Wait, what were we talkin' 'bout????

[Leroy Jenkins]

Somebody put this video up, I don't have the skills. Pretty funny.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SportsTalkMiss/status/1040695073955082240

[Johnson85]

Four people would be alive today had they evacuated when first told to. Sad.

Well, sort of. But you've got two people who had a tree fall on their house, someone who got killed plugging in a generator, and someone who had a heart attack. If these people were high and dry, kind of hard to blame them for not evacuating. You wouldn't evacuate for a Category 2 storm, and if you're not at risk of flooding, this is just a category 2 storm.

Completely different story from the morons that didn't evacuate areas subject to a storm surge and then to act surprised that a storm that spent a lot of time as a category 4 has a storm surge that's closer to a category 4 than a category 2.

[Homedawg]

Well, sort of. But you've got two people who had a tree fall on their house, someone who got killed plugging in a generator, and someone who had a heart attack. If these people were high and dry, kind of hard to blame them for not evacuating. You wouldn't evacuate for a Category 2 storm, and if you're not at risk of flooding, this is just a category 2 storm.

Completely different story from the morons that didn't evacuate areas subject to a storm surge and then to act surprised that a storm that spent a lot of time as a category 4 has a storm surge that's closer to a category 4 than a category 2.

Why you think the tree fell? Wind maybe??? And if he one who died due to a heart attack had been where emergency personnel could get to them, maybe they would be alive.

[DownwardDawg]

Well, sort of. But you've got two people who had a tree fall on their house, someone who got killed plugging in a generator, and someone who had a heart attack. If these people were high and dry, kind of hard to blame them for not evacuating. You wouldn't evacuate for a Category 2 storm, and if you're not at risk of flooding, this is just a category 2 storm.

Completely different story from the morons that didn't evacuate areas subject to a storm surge and then to act surprised that a storm that spent a lot of time as a category 4 has a storm surge that's closer to a category 4 than a category 2.

So what you're saying is, 4 people....5 now, would still be alive if they had evacuated. That is a fact. At least 4 of them.

[TUSK]

So what you're saying is, 4 people....5 now, would still be alive if they had evacuated. That is a fact. At least 4 of them.

I'm a proponent of "natural selection"...

[RocketDawg]

Looks like UGa would have been OK with their game tomorrow. The storm isn't affecting Athens, except maybe hotels. Of course, they had to cancel it in time for the fans, and it was in compliance with all the forecasts but may have erred on the side of caution. I guess one never knows.

[Johnson85]

Why you think the tree fell? Wind maybe??? And if he one who died due to a heart attack had been where emergency personnel could get to them, maybe they would be alive.

And maybe the person would have had a heart attack in standstill traffic and died.

And somebody will probably die because they evacuated because they have to drive back through bad conditions.

And the tree could fall whenever and maybe they should have had it cut down. But people aren't going to typically evacuate from a cat 2 if they don't have to worry about water. and mostly that's the right call.

[BhamDawg205]

Asking for prayers for my son and his family... They live in New Bern and Cove City, NC. I served in the Marines in that area. Cherry Point USMC Air station, Havelock was the surrounding town. Waiting to hear from him. The video and images of New Bern has me feeling... Thanks Fam

[BhamDawg205]

While serving I was station at Atlantic, NC when Bonnie (98) came through. We chose to ride it out and serve as first responders and shelter for people unable to evacuate.

[Johnson85]

So what you're saying is, 4 people....5 now, would still be alive if they had evacuated. That is a fact. At least 4 of them.

Well, obviously not in the case of the person with the heart attack. But for the others, yes, in the same way that just about everybody who is killed in a car accident could have avoided it if they had left the house 15 minutes earlier or later, they would likely be alive if they had evacuated.

I'm just pointing out to the people that it's not particularly useful or insightful information. Most people killed by tornados could have avoided their death by evacuating the area when conditions are favorable for tornadoes, but that's not very feasible for most people that live in areas where tornados occur. Nor is it feasible or necessarily prudent for many people to evacuate for category two storms. Unless they don't have a job they have to be at, it's very likely that they'll be in more danger driving back through the remnants of the storm than they would be from sheltering in place. It's just one of those risks you have to bear if you live in coastal areas on the gulf or lower atlantic seaboard, just like people who live in tornado alley have to bear the risks of tornados. You can be smarter about managing risks, and certainly the more affluent you are the easier it generally is to avoid risks, but low risk things still kill people.

[Political Hack]

Asking for prayers for my son and his family... They live in New Bern and Cove City, NC. I served in the Marines in that area. Cherry Point USMC Air station, Havelock was the surrounding town. Waiting to hear from him. The video and images of New Bern has me feeling... Thanks Fam

Any update?

[BhamDawg205]

Any update?

Thanks Hack... Yea cell service was down. Heard from him two days later, but he's safe

[Bully13]

Waiting on a reply back from my Marine Brother in Wilmington, NC. He's in a "no flood" area 20 miles from the beach. He sent his Wife and 3 sons West while holding down the fort.

[BhamDawg205]

Let us know when you hear something Bully... And tell him Semper Fi

[Political Hack]

Thanks Hack... Yea cell service was down. Heard from him two days later, but he's safe

Good news. Hope their stuff is ok too, but then being fine is obviously most important. We couldn't get in touch with my sister for 2-days after Katrina. Not a good feeling. Glad that's behind y'all.

[Political Hack]

Waiting on a reply back from my Marine Brother in Wilmington, NC. He's in a "no flood" area 20 miles from the beach. He sent his Wife and 3 sons West while holding down the fort.

Have they heard from him? Knowing he's a marine, he's probably chest deep in water somewhere helping someone else.