Some Thoughts on This Weekend's Games

[ShotgunDawg]

Hump day. We are almost there.

Here are some thoughts on this weekend's matchups.

MSU @ Kansas State - MSU -10 : I'm super excited about this game this weekend, not because I'm sure that we'll blow out Kansas State, but because I think this is the perfect early season matchup to test MSU's team leadership & to see what this team is made of. In 2017, we didn't face a difficult road atmosphere until we went to UGA & we even gave up 9 points in the first quarter at Louisiana Tech before just out talenting them. I expect us to play super aggressive Saturday & be a left lane team the moment we get off the bus, but, other than a win, the thing I want to see most is MSU play well early. In 2017, we struggled early in the game at La Tech, UGA, Auburn, & Arkansas. Getting off the bus & playing well early, would show a lot about the leadership of this team & set us up to do great things this year.

UGA @ South Carolina - UGA -10.5 - Many including Brad Edwards are calling for South Carolina to win this weekend, but I just don't see it. I don't see how a Muschamp coached team will muster near enough offense to beat UGA. Dawgs by 16.

Arkansas State @ Bama - Bama -37 - Free money, Free money alert. Is Bama only going to score 37 points vs Arkansas State? If not, they will cover.

Clemson @ Texas A&M - Clemson -13 - This line started out Clemson -9, which was free money. Clemson win by double digits. My only concern for Clemson is that A&M put it together & gave Bama a good run last year at home. So, if the Aggieland is rocking & A&M has some things go their way early, it's possible that A&M keeps this one to 10 points or so.

[Dawg61]

not because I'm sure that we'll blow Kansas State

edited by ShotgunDawg

[ShotgunDawg]

edited by ShotgunDawg

LOL. Damn

[StarkVegasSteve]

MSU @ KSU- This is great test for us. If we play well early, which was not a strong suit of the 17 team early in the season, I don't believe this game will be close. If the Fitz hype around his improved accuracy is true he could very well have a 300/100 type game. If we struggle out of the gate though this will be a dogfight and they'll give us all we handle. However, I don't believe we'll struggle. Left Lane all the way 41-17 Dawgs

Georgia @ USCe- I really believe South Carolina is going to give UGA all kinds of problems in this one. Jake Bentley is going to test that young defense early and often and Muschamp will turn up the pressure on Fromm. Remember it was basically his recruits at Auburn that made life hell for Fromm all day last year. Saying all that, Fromm just has that IT factor that everyone talks about and I believe he leads them to a tough win. 24-20 UGA

Arkansas State @ Bama- BAD. Early and Often. Could be interesting only because I believe this could be the last game we see Jalen Hurts play in a Bama jersey 56-6 Bama

Clemson @ TAMU- This one is an interesting one for me, I believe if Trevor Lawrence plays the majority of the game for Clemson I think Clemson wins by 2+ TDs. But if Dabo decides to stick with Kelly Bryant this one will be a close one and one I believe A&M could even win if they catch some breaks late. Still I'll take Clemson 28-17

[ShotgunDawg]

Clemson @ TAMU- This one is an interesting one for me, I believe if Trevor Lawrence plays the majority of the game for Clemson I think Clemson wins by 2+ TDs. But if Dabo decides to stick with Kelly Bryant this one will be a close one and one I believe A&M could even win if they catch some breaks late. Still I'll take Clemson 28-17

My issue with this game is that it's hard for me to forget what Clemson did to Auburn's OL in 2017 with 6 sacks on Stidham & Auburn's 2017 OL was WAY better than A&M's 2018 OL.

A&M obviously blew out Northwestern State the other night, but Northwestern State got a good bit of pressure on Mond. With Clemson's DL returning errrrybody, I just don't see how A&M is going to move the ball. I think it's an absolute mismatch on the LOS

[StarkVegasSteve]

My issue with this game is that it's hard for me to forget what Clemson did to Auburn's OL in 2017 with 6 sacks on Stidham & Auburn's 2017 OL was WAY better than A&M's 2018 OL.

A&M obviously blew out Northwestern State the other night, but Northwestern State got a good bit of pressure on Mond. With Clemson's DL returning errrrybody, I just don't see how A&M is going to move the ball. I think it's an absolute mismatch on the LOS

I think the only difference is that Gus isn't smart enough to make adjustments and get his QB to get the ball out quicker. I think Jimbo is just smart enough to do that. Still I do agree that Clemson's D Line will wreak havoc. I just feel like A&M will keep them off guard just enough to make it interesting. The crowd will also be a huge advantage to A&M. Clemson has never played in that kind of environment and A&M does it week in and week out.

[MedDawg]

Locks:
Memphis -7 at Navy
USM -6 vs UL-Monroe
Arkansas -14 at Colorado State
Cincinnati +1 at Miami, OH

Considering
TCU -23 at SMU (moved from lock to considering)
Bama -37 vs Arkansas St.
MSU -9.5 at Kansas St.

I think I'll stay away from Clemson at A&M. My initial thought was taking A&M and the points, then I read from people taking Clemson and giving the points. I think Clemson will win, but just not sure. Also staying away from USC vs Georgia. Just not sure.

If the weather was good for MSU at Kansas State, I'd for sure pick MSU -9.5, but with the possible bad weather, I'm just not sure. If the weather looks to improve then I'll take State -9.5 or even -12.

Over the years I rarely picked for State to win or cover. Double losses were too hard on me. When I was ahead for the season I sometimes picked moneyline against State or State's opponent plus the points, so if State won the game I felt like I 'bought' a win. If State lost the game, at least I got a little money.

Going to the coast this weekend to see a concert--do the coast casinos have bets on games deeper into the season or at least week 3? I may try to research some later games.

[MedDawg]

Added

Locks
Nebraska -4.5 vs Colorado
Appalachian State -14 at Charlotte

Cincinnati is now -1 at Miami, OH. Still a lock.

To go with above locks,
Memphis -7 at Navy
USM -6 vs UL-Monroe
Arkansas -14 at Colorado State

Considering a parlay and a teaser with all 6.

[biggun]

Our line down to -8, all the money going on K State the last 2 days. Interested to see where it ends up right before kick when the sharps lay down the wood

[MedDawg]

Added

Locks
Nebraska -4.5 vs Colorado
Appalachian State -14 at Charlotte

Cincinnati is now -1 at Miami, OH. Still a lock.

To go with above locks,
Memphis -7 at Navy
USM -6 vs UL-Monroe
Arkansas -14 at Colorado State

Considering a parlay and a teaser with all 6.

Added Northwestern -2.5 and dropped Nebraska