Weather Dawgs... - Tropical Storm Gordon

[TimberBeast]

What do you guys think about the Coast next week? Looks like we?ve got something building out there. Any info is greatly appreciated as always.

[starkvegasdawg]

Right now I'm not too worried for it to be much more than a heavy rain maker. It may end up developing into a tropical system but right now I don't see it turning into anything dangerous.

[parabrave]

Rain along the immediate coast

[99jc]

game time Saturday or do you expect it to turn north northeast by the time it reaches Oklahoma.

[starkvegasdawg]

Right now it's looking to go into TX last I saw.

[99jc]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents


latest track shows thishttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents


latest track shows thishttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents

for anyone who doesn't want to google it, yes Manhattan is in the path

[Jack Lambert]

Maybe it will wash some of that cow shit stink away. Very smelly state. Much like most of Texas.

[MedDawg]

That storm is potentially a big deal for State. While it won't have anywhere near tropical storm winds by the time it reaches Kansas, it will still bring a lot of wind and rain, and the current track has the center of the storm over Manhattan right around kickoff. A lot of wind and rain can be an equalizer and help the underdog. One of Penn State's two losses last year was a heavy rain game at Michigan State. I hope Moorhead gained some experience from that game. Moorhead has also shown to be really good at adjusting his offense during games, so I'm not that worried, but I would much rather play Kansas State in good weather.

[TimberBeast]

Right now I'm not too worried for it to be much more than a heavy rain maker. It may end up developing into a tropical system but right now I don't see it turning into anything dangerous.

Still thinking the same or have things changed any? We have a hurricane watch now on the coast.

[starkvegasdawg]

Still thinking the same or have things changed any? We have a hurricane watch now on the coast.

It may be coming in slightly stronger than first thought. There's hints it may strengthen to a minimal hurricane. One thing concerns me, though. A radar loop in the last hour briefly showed what may have been an eye forming. It almost immediately closed in, but if it is trying to form an eye it may be strengthening faster than expected.

[Bully13]

what's the chance of some naders on the coast with this shit?

[ScoobaDawg]

Merging this into the TS Gordon thread... Guys the path of a hurricane can't be predicted more than 24 hours out..if that. So wait another day to see where it's gonna come in.. and how west or east it turns once it comes to freak out.

Further more looking at the current spaghetti map of predicted paths. only one has it going into kansas. And I'm not buying it... float west into Ok and take a direct North path? Nope..

[SailingDawg]

Now saying it will be a hurricane when it hits the Mississippi Gulf Coast Wednesday night. Schools are starting to make the call to go 60% Tuesday. It'll all be over Wednesday morning.

[RocketDawg]

That storm is potentially a big deal for State. While it won't have anywhere near tropical storm winds by the time it reaches Kansas, it will still bring a lot of wind and rain, and the current track has the center of the storm over Manhattan right around kickoff. A lot of wind and rain can be an equalizer and help the underdog. One of Penn State's two losses last year was a heavy rain game at Michigan State. I hope Moorhead gained some experience from that game. Moorhead has also shown to be really good at adjusting his offense during games, so I'm not that worried, but I would much rather play Kansas State in good weather.

We had that situation at Missouri a year or two ago and it didn't hurt us.

Manhattan had about 9" of rain today ... flooding everywhere there.

[starkvegasdawg]

Now saying it will be a hurricane when it hits the Mississippi Gulf Coast Wednesday night. Schools are starting to make the call to go 60% Tuesday. It'll all be over Wednesday morning.

Yep. Saying Cat 1 possible low end Cat 2. The one year I can't go chase a hurricane is the year we get one.

[RocketDawg]

It may be coming in slightly stronger than first thought. There's hints it may strengthen to a minimal hurricane. One thing concerns me, though. A radar loop in the last hour briefly showed what may have been an eye forming. It almost immediately closed in, but if it is trying to form an eye it may be strengthening faster than expected.


Yeah, apparently it's expected to gain strength rapidly. Only 50 mph now. The Gulf is like bathwater now though.

[RocketDawg]

what's the chance of some naders on the coast with this shit?


Yes, they're always possible with a TS or hurricane. Short lived ones but they can be nasty if you get hit by one.

[SailingDawg]

Most schools on the coast canceling Tuesday or going 60%.

[MetEdDawg]

I sure hope Gordon parks itself over Manhattan. Latest projection has it in the eastern side of Kansas at 2 pm Saturday. If you want to see total domination Saturday make this a majority run game. Both sides of the ball in the trenches would heavily favor us. I would be stunned if KSU scored any points if they had to run 70-80% of the time due to wind and rain.

[DownwardDawg]

I sure hope Gordon parks itself over Manhattan. Latest projection has it in the eastern side of Kansas at 2 pm Saturday. If you want to see total domination Saturday make this a majority run game. Both sides of the ball in the trenches would heavily favor us. I would be stunned if KSU scored any points if they had to run 70-80% of the time due to wind and rain.

I agree. If this turns into a ground n pound game because of rain, we will stomp them. Bad weather favors underdogs only in certain situation, this ain’t one of those. We are not a pass happy finesse team.

Looking forward to the storm. I love them!! Especially now that my Dad no longer lives on the coast!! I’m fascinated watching them on tv then going outside and taking in all the wind and rain.

[TimberBeast]

If you guys get any more info please let us know. We live on a bayou on the coast and the surge from Nate last year brought the water up almost to our deck, I’m worried this one might be the same kind of storm because it’s moving so fast.

[starkvegasdawg]

If you guys get any more info please let us know. We live on a bayou on the coast and the surge from Nate last year brought the water up almost to our deck, I’m worried this one might be the same kind of storm because it’s moving so fast.

Latest track at 4:00am has it making landfall tonight on the western MS coast. Winds 65mph currently so it should make hurricane status before doing so. That track will put all of the MS coast in the surge zone however high that will be.

[RiverCityDawg]

I agree. If this turns into a ground n pound game because of rain, we will stomp them. Bad weather favors underdogs only in certain situation, this ain’t one of those. We are not a pass happy finesse team.

I disagree a little. I wouldn't call us a finesse team, but we are now a team with a scheme that calls for passing it if they are playing us to run it. Mullen is gone. If they stack the box and/or play man on the outside we are passing it. Also, KSU needs turnovers to beat us and a wet ball is more likely to result in turnovers. I would rather it be clear weather and we just beat them straight up. They can't pass it when it's dry so makes no matter to them if it's raining. Our scheme is different.

[ScoobaDawg]

Latest track at 4:00am has it making landfall tonight on the western MS coast. Winds 65mph currently so it should make hurricane status before doing so. That track will put all of the MS coast in the surge zone however high that will be.

Small storm... small surge. Very small wind field at/near hurricane strength. So 1-3 foot is what I'm seeing mentioned.

[Jack Lambert]

Small storm... small surge. Very small wind field at/near hurricane strength. So 1-3 foot is what I'm seeing mentioned.

I don't scare easy but big ass waves do.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nS_aR8XX_U

[starkvegasdawg]

1:00pm advisory keeps pressure (1001mb) and winds (65mph) the same as 10:00am advisory so still a tropical storm.

[ScoobaDawg]

The honest truth. Yes it's a tropical system. do be cautious. But NHC will never downgrade a land falling storm this close.
But the storm is severally disorganized. The strongest convection is 23-35 miles east of the center with weak storms on the west side.

I'm not saying go out for a joyride if you are on the MS gulf coast though. Everyone be safe and smart.

[PassInterference]

Looks like a Mobile landfall.

[starkvegasdawg]

The honest truth. Yes it's a tropical system. do be cautious. But NHC will never downgrade a land falling storm this close.
But the storm is severally disorganized. The strongest convection is 23-35 miles east of the center with weak storms on the west side.

I'm not saying go out for a joyride if you are on the MS gulf coast though. Everyone be safe and smart.

I just looked at it on radar. You're right. Looks like garbage and I doubt it gets stronger already interacting with land. Glad I didn't pull the trigger and head down there.

[SailingDawg]

If you guys get any more info please let us know. We live on a bayou on the coast and the surge from Nate last year brought the water up almost to our deck, I’m worried this one might be the same kind of storm because it’s moving so fast.

Where do you live? I'm on Fort Bayou in Ocean Springs. I don't think the surge for Gordon is as high as Nate was.

[parabrave]

Where do you live? I'm on Fort Bayou in Ocean Springs. I don't think the surge for Gordon is as high as Nate was.

Nice and sunny here on big lake. Its gonna hit Pascagoula then Wiggins. Almost all the worst will hit Alabama.

[starkvegasdawg]

7:00pm adv pressure down to 999mb but winds still 70mph.

[War Machine Dawg]

How much surge are we expecting in Biloxi?

[starkvegasdawg]

How much surge are we expecting in Biloxi?

1-3' I think.

[Statecoachingblows**]

Good wind and rain in spurts in gulf shores. Nothing too crazy, made for good watchin on the porch with some beers

[parabrave]

How much surge are we expecting in Biloxi?

it's low tide now. high tide is around 7-8am

[starkvegasdawg]

Radar showing 79mph winds at 2,000ft altitude near eye wall.

[TimberBeast]

Where do you live? I'm on Fort Bayou in Ocean Springs. I don't think the surge for Gordon is as high as Nate was.

Not far from you in Heron Bayou in Ocean Springs, barely even raining yet but it’s on the way. I don’t think the surge will be much either.

[starkvegasdawg]

First confirmed tornado with Gordon in south AL.

[starkvegasdawg]

10:00pm adv in. Pressure down to 997mb but winds still 70mph. Radar showing eye wall trying to form on all sides. It wanted to be a hurricane but looks like it'll run out of time before it can.

[TimberBeast]

In OS we got nothing, barely even any rain at all. Pascagoula got it worse but not too bad.

[ScoobaDawg]

Sadly one child has died in Pensacola when a tree fell on a mobile home

[ScoobaDawg]

10:00pm adv in. Pressure down to 997mb but winds still 70mph. Radar showing eye wall trying to form on all sides. It wanted to be a hurricane but looks like it'll run out of time before it can.
I don't understand the science Of the matter but the land interaction was actually helping the development. I think had something to do with the forward speed and reducing the shear.

Either way. Its on land and will diminish in power fast hopeful.

[TimberBeast]

I’ve never seen anything like that, Pascagoula and Gautier got some decent wind and rain, we had a little wind and pretty much no rain. I guess we were just right on the edge

[starkvegasdawg]

I’ve never seen anything like that, Pascagoula and Gautier got some decent wind and rain, we had a little wind and pretty much no rain. I guess we were just right on the edge

It's a small ragged storm. Think of it like a pop up summer storm. Your neighbor got 2" of rain and you got nothing.

[TimberBeast]

It's a small ragged storm. Think of it like a pop up summer storm. Your neighbor got 2" of rain and you got nothing.

It ended up that way for sure, seemed like just another summer day

[Cooterpoot]

Eye or whatever you want to call just came over us. 20+ mph gusts and about an inch or so of rain. Gordon was a puss thankfully.

[Gutter Cobreh]

Yep. Saying Cat 1 possible low end Cat 2. The one year I can't go chase a hurricane is the year we get one.

Did the National Weather Service also discontinue the use of courtesy carts? Is that why you're unable to chase?***

Just kidding! Thanks to you and Scooba for your excellent, although differing, thoughts with all things weather!

[Dawgology]

This is a little off topic but I thought I would ask here while all of the weather junkies were gathered in one place. I lived on the coast right before Katrina and I remember that we had 3-4 Cat4 and Cat5 hurricanes that entered the Gulf and made landfall months before Katrina. What was it, exactly, about 2005 that caused so much significant hurricane activity. I was used to a cat2 or cat3 making landfall sporadically but I've never seen that many Cat4/5 hurricanes in one season. Now that I think back about it I believe 2004 had several Cat2/3 hurricanes that made landfall on the coast and then the next season it ramped up. What was the underlying cause of this or was it just coincidence?

[parabrave]

This is a little off topic but I thought I would ask here while all of the weather junkies were gathered in one place. I lived on the coast right before Katrina and I remember that we had 3-4 Cat4 and Cat5 hurricanes that entered the Gulf and made landfall months before Katrina. What was it, exactly, about 2005 that caused so much significant hurricane activity. I was used to a cat2 or cat3 making landfall sporadically but I've never seen that many Cat4/5 hurricanes in one season. Now that I think back about it I believe 2004 had several Cat2/3 hurricanes that made landfall on the coast and then the next season it ramped up. What was the underlying cause of this or was it just coincidence?

we Had Ivan in 2004 which was heading right fr us. GPT/BIX, then swerved to FloraBama once it hit the south Pass. There also was Charlie which hit South of Tampa. Yep 2004/2005 was bad.

[Dawgbite]

This is a little off topic but I thought I would ask here while all of the weather junkies were gathered in one place. I lived on the coast right before Katrina and I remember that we had 3-4 Cat4 and Cat5 hurricanes that entered the Gulf and made landfall months before Katrina. What was it, exactly, about 2005 that caused so much significant hurricane activity. I was used to a cat2 or cat3 making landfall sporadically but I've never seen that many Cat4/5 hurricanes in one season. Now that I think back about it I believe 2004 had several Cat2/3 hurricanes that made landfall on the coast and then the next season it ramped up. What was the underlying cause of this or was it just coincidence?

If I remember correctly, CNN was reporting at the time that it was some guy named Donald Trump's fault.

[ScoobaDawg]

This is a little off topic but I thought I would ask here while all of the weather junkies were gathered in one place. I lived on the coast right before Katrina and I remember that we had 3-4 Cat4 and Cat5 hurricanes that entered the Gulf and made landfall months before Katrina. What was it, exactly, about 2005 that caused so much significant hurricane activity. I was used to a cat2 or cat3 making landfall sporadically but I've never seen that many Cat4/5 hurricanes in one season. Now that I think back about it I believe 2004 had several Cat2/3 hurricanes that made landfall on the coast and then the next season it ramped up. What was the underlying cause of this or was it just coincidence?

2004 Had 9 Hurricane, 6 Majors.
Alex - C3
Charley C4
Frances C4
Ivan C5
Jeanne C3
Karl C4


2005 Had 15 hurricanes, 7 Cat 3 or higher, which tied the record set in 1961.
Dennis C4 - Hit Navararre Beach, FL on July 10th, near where Ivan caused major damage in 2004. Continued NW into AL and MS (Name Retired)
Emily C5 - Hit Yucatan Peninsula then NE Mexico.
Katrina C5 - First Cat 5 in Gulf in 25 years (Allen), 7th most-intense hurricane on record (Name Retired)
Maria C3 - Chased after the fishes in the Atlantic.
Rita C5 - Hit SW Louisana, 4th most intense (Name Retired)
Wilma C5 - Hit Cozumel and then was scooped up by a powerful trough and turned NE towards Cape Romano, FL. (Name Retired)
Beta C3 - Hit Nicaraugua at the end of Oct.


After 2005 no other major hurricane made landfall in the US until Harvey last year.
Further after Wilma, no hurricane struck Florida until Hermine did 11 years later.

Now your question is why were those 2 years more active and intense than the norm. Global Warming. JK. Kinda. Because it's still a very unknown complex science of the factors that make a Hurricane occur.
Very interesting reading that breaks down some of the factors concerning the 2005 season though

https://www.wunderground.com/education/active2005.asp

[ScoobaDawg]

And Gordon is pretty much over minus some rain for Ark/ Missouri for the next few days... but this vlog has some very interesting talk about Florence and 92L and the unnamed wave about to roll off the African coast.

All those hot temperatures on the east coast might affect where Cat 4 Hurricane Florence goes... but we are a good 5 days out from knowing that.
Very important to see where she is sitting Sunday evening / Monday morning. Current track shows around 27N on Sun, 29N on Mon. If that happens, Might head the way of Bermuda. If not. Have to watch ...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cqy-Srgui0

[RocketDawg]

Florence is kicking up her heels in the Atlantic now ... Cat 4 at 130 mph. At the moment, not really expected to impact the east coast. Let's hope it stays away from Puerto Rico ... they don't need another one right now.