Why Miss. State will win the SEC West in 2018 by C34

[Coach34]

It's that time of year again where I usually make my SEC Predictions- but because this is a special year I'm going to do something different. The SEC is fairly cut and dried this year with Georgia the easy favorite in the East. In the West you have Bama, Auburn, and State and then a clear divide with the rest of the West. Today I make my case why Miss State will and won't win the SEC West.

A) The SEC is a Line of Scrimmage League

You guys have seen me post this a 100 times over the years. It's just as true today as it was in 1975. The footprint of the SEC is the breeding ground for defensive linemen in the United States. Just like you can find a WR on every street corner in Miami, you can find a defensive lineman in every county or parish in SEC Territory. So what does State look like on the LOS? Phil Steele says we have the 3rd best DL in college football and I can't really argue except that I wouldn't trade our DL for Ohio State's. Clemson is a clear #1 but after that State, Ohio State, Bama, and Auburn are all nasty. But in today's football, it's not just what your starters do, it about depth because of the number of plays these guys have to play every week due to the no-huddle, hurry up style of offenses. Everybody knows that Jeffrey Simmons and Montez Sweat were All-SEC last year. They will learn quickly how big it is for us to finally play Gerri Green in his natural position at DE and see him shine. But where we will win big games is because of the play of Chauncey Rivers, Marquiss Spencer, Corey Thomas, and Tre Brown. That 2nd DL would start intact for at least half of the D-1 football programs in America. When we sub and there is no noticeable drop or weak spots- that makes you tough to handle. And I still haven't mentioned Fletcher Adams, Aaron Odom, Lee Autry, or others that can play.

What about the O-Line? I have taught you guys over the years the importance of returning starters on the OL. This is super-important to your team's success. State returns 4 starters along with their new LT who made 4 starts last season. Eiland getting his cherry popped last year was absolutely best case scenario for 2018. State's OL in 2017 was one of the top units in the country. They were 14th in TFL's allowed, 5th in Sacks Allowed, and 8th in 3rd down conversions. Returning these 5 guys that have been playing together awhile now is huge for cohesiveness and confidence. This group also has some depth now after RS'ing a couple of jucos and getting some playing time for others last season.

B) You Must Have A Good QB

In 2018, State has a 5th year Senior that is going to become the All-Time leader rusher in SEC History at the QB position. That's incredible. Fitz has accounted for 72 TD's in his career. If Fitz puts up another 36 total TD's as he has averaged- he will finish 5th all-time in the SEC behind Dakota Prescott. He would need 42 to tie Dak for 4th. When he takes his 1st snap in September, Fitz will be 9 months post-surgery. By all accounts- he is ready to go physically.

The knock by some of Fitz's critics is on his passing. He threw for 21/10 2423 in 2016 but had some fall back in 2017. Your's truly warned you about that before last season due to his lack of talent and inexperience at WR. Add to the fact Gray and Myles stayed injured in 2017- plus a high number of drops, and he had about the kind of season I expected. This year- we have a guy that due to his injury has had to really focus on his passing and technique. He is also a graduate now, more mature, and someone that has more time to spend in the film room because he no longer takes as many classes. That will be important come September. We also know that more talent has been added to the WR group for 2018- as well as experience gained by the youngsters.

Another aspect that will help Fitz in 2018 is his new offense. While Moorhead runs his QB quite often just as Mullen did- JoMo's passing game with certain RPO's makes for easier throws and higher percentage passing to TE's and RB's. I see Fitz throwing for close to 30 TD's in 2018 because of the new scheme and plays like this one his coach uses:

https://twitter.com/1coachtow1n/status/1015754963404951552

C) Can You Move The Football In Big Games When You Need To?

Not in 2017 we couldn't. Our scheme was very basic and our imagination almost non-existent. We lacked talent at WR and stayed injured there. We dropped critical passes. We turned the ball over. So why will 2018 be different? More maturity from an offense returning basically 9 starters plus quality back-ups. It's always easier when you have been there before. The addition of Kylin Hill into the offense more. Kid is an offensive force and SEC-ready now. More talent at WR and the return of Malik Dear from injury. Whop is better than anybody that started for us at WR in our bowl game. Guidry will make an impact. We have depth in the slot with Dear, Mixon, and Thomas. The talent at TE.

Bottom line- the 2018 offense will keep teams off balance more than we have in previous seasons.

D) Do You Have A Good Defense?

The simple answer is Yes. There seems to be some angst about Shoop but one thing you have to remember- the more talent you have? The less you have to coach. Shoop has been a very good coach in the past and has a great reputation. I'm not going to hold the Tennessee debacle against him because as we have seen- it was a complete cluster**** up there. The simple fact that Shoop had enough sense to move Gerri Green to the position he was born to play gives him a thumbs up already from me. I've asked for this move for 4 years.

We know about the DL- what about the rest? Well, LB should be an absolute strength altho the depth is an unknown. Errol Thompson is an absolute tackling machine- finishing 7th in tackles in 2017 as he slowly started taking playing time from upperclassmen. Willie Gay lived up to the hype- making Freshman All-SEC. Leo Lewis had way too many distractions in 2017- but alot of that has died down now and should allow him more focus on the football field. Expect a bounceback season from him. That gives us 3 good ILB's in Shoop's 4-2-5. Hopefully Washington steps up to take that 4th spot on the 2-deep.

Secondary? This is a team that will be very good at Safety. SEC Interception leader Mark McLaurin returns along with Jonathan Abram. Add in Landrews from juco and Murphy from WP- and you got a good crew. Where does Brian Cole play? Talented guy that has to be on the field. Veterans Jamal Peters and Cam Dantzler have shown they can make plays. CJ Morgan....Maurice Smitherman....Chris Rayford....all looking fighting for playing time in what should be an improved Secondary in 2018.

State was 3rd in the SEC in Total D last year. I see nothing in 2018 that should cause that to drop.

E) Kicking Game?

State has a new punter in 2018- but he comes in with some hype. Christman returns as the kicker after a damn good freshman season. The kicking part of Special Teams should be fine. Coverage? The depth this team has ensures that quality players will be on coverage teams should do a good job. New ST Coach Joey Jones should handle this part of our team well.

F) Coaching

Are there concerns about this coaching staff being new? Sure
Are there concerns about a HC that hasnt done it yet in a P-5 game? Sure

However, this State team in 2018 is in a different spot than 99% of teams that get a new coach. It's a very talented, veteran team that has veteran HC's on its staff. JoMo has head coaching experience and while it was on a smaller level- it's still valuable. People get too caught up with the glam of bigtime football. There are guys coaching HS or juco out there that are better coaches than a Les Miles or Gene Chizik. Some people get chances or know the right people- others don't. Larry Coker was an OC that won a title in his 1st season as a HC- why? Because he inherited a talented team. Gus Malzahn went 9-3 at Ark St in his 1st year as a major HC and then played for the title in Year 2. Why? He inherited talented teams. Jimbo Fisher won 10 games in year 1. Hell, look at the improvements Mullen and Freeze made in their 1st seasons- improving their team's win totals. Boom came in and made SC better. I could go on and on....

After being around this staff, it's easy to see we have upgraded. It's a completely more professional approach and structured environment now. And just think about the upgrades offensively? Hud taking over for Looney....Getsy over Gonzo...Huff over Knox...Johnson over Hevesy...Other SEC coaches already know what's in Starkville right now- but other fanbases are about to learn. Our recruiting right now is just a hint of things to come.

G) And Finally- Schedule

If we had LSU's schedule there is no way I'd be saying we could challenge for the title- but we dont. We play a solid OOC game on the road- but this veteran team will handle the venue. We get Auburn and Florida at home. Those will be tough games but good teams win those games at home. We get LSU after they have played a stretch of Miami, Auburn, Mississippi, Florida, and Georgia in the 1st 7 weeks of the season. Road games at Kentucky and Mississippi have to be won. It's a schedule that gives us a chance to win the West.



Mississippi State will have every chance to win the SEC Title in 2018. This is the best team with the best staff Mississippi State has had in my lifetime. It's getting closer to time to enjoy the ride. HailState!!



Why State won't win the SEC West in 2018?

Simply couldn't pull off a win in Tuscaloosa. Pretty simple

[shoeless joe]

As a fan, Having a really good defense makes for a much more enjoyable football season. Add in what we've got of offense and this will be an exciting year.

[msstatelp1]

JoMo has head coaching experience and while it was on a smaller level- it's still valuable. People get too caught up with the glam of bigtime football.

I've heard way too many people discount JoMo's HC experience because it was Fordham but I agree with you. HC experience is HC experience. He knows how he wants to run practice, he's had to make in-game decisions, and like you said, he's backed up by a ton of veteran HC's. While I expect a WTF moment every now and then while he and his staff get adjusted to the new team, I don't think it'll be anything like Mullen learning to be a HC.

[msbulldog]

It's that time of year again where I usually make my SEC Predictions- but because this is a special year I'm going to do something different. The SEC is fairly cut and dried this year with Georgia the easy favorite in the East. In the West you have Bama, Auburn, and State and then a clear divide with the rest of the West. Today I make my case why Miss State will and won't win the SEC West.

A) The SEC is a Line of Scrimmage League

You guys have seen me post this a 100 times over the years. It's just as true today as it was in 1975. The footprint of the SEC is the breeding ground for defensive linemen in the United States. Just like you can find a WR on every street corner in Miami, you can find a defensive lineman in every county or parish in SEC Territory. So what does State look like on the LOS? Phil Steele says we have the 3rd best DL in college football and I can't really argue except that I wouldn't trade our DL for Ohio State's. Clemson is a clear #1 but after that State, Ohio State, Bama, and Auburn are all nasty. But in today's football, it's not just what your starters do, it about depth because of the number of plays these guys have to play every week due to the no-huddle, hurry up style of offenses. Everybody knows that Jeffrey Simmons and Montez Sweat were All-SEC last year. They will learn quickly how big it is for us to finally play Gerri Green in his natural position at DE and see him shine. But where we will win big games is because of the play of Chauncey Rivers, Marquiss Spencer, Corey Thomas, and Tre Brown. That 2nd DL would start intact for at least half of the D-1 football programs in America. When we sub and there is no noticeable drop or weak spots- that makes you tough to handle. And I still haven't mentioned Fletcher Adams, Aaron Odom, Lee Autry, or others that can play.

What about the O-Line? I have taught you guys over the years the importance of returning starters on the OL. This is super-important to your team's success. State returns 4 starters along with their new LT who made 4 starts last season. Eiland getting his cherry popped last year was absolutely best case scenario for 2018. State's OL in 2017 was one of the top units in the country. They were 14th in TFL's allowed, 5th in Sacks Allowed, and 8th in 3rd down conversions. Returning these 5 guys that have been playing together awhile now is huge for cohesiveness and confidence. This group also has some depth now after RS'ing a couple of jucos and getting some playing time for others last season.

B) You Must Have A Good QB

In 2018, State has a 5th year Senior that is going to become the All-Time leader rusher in SEC History at the QB position. That's incredible. Fitz has accounted for 72 TD's in his career. If Fitz puts up another 36 total TD's as he has averaged- he will finish 5th all-time in the SEC behind Dakota Prescott. He would need 42 to tie Dak for 4th. When he takes his 1st snap in September, Fitz will be 9 months post-surgery. By all accounts- he is ready to go physically.

The knock by some of Fitz's critics is on his passing. He threw for 21/10 2423 in 2016 but had some fall back in 2017. Your's truly warned you about that before last season due to his lack of talent and inexperience at WR. Add to the fact Gray and Myles stayed injured in 2017- plus a high number of drops, and he had about the kind of season I expected. This year- we have a guy that due to his injury has had to really focus on his passing and technique. He is also a graduate now, more mature, and someone that has more time to spend in the film room because he no longer takes as many classes. That will be important come September. We also know that more talent has been added to the WR group for 2018- as well as experience gained by the youngsters.

Another aspect that will help Fitz in 2018 is his new offense. While Moorhead runs his QB quite often just as Mullen did- JoMo's passing game with certain RPO's makes for easier throws and higher percentage passing to TE's and RB's. I see Fitz throwing for close to 30 TD's in 2018 because of the new scheme and plays like this one his coach uses:

https://twitter.com/1coachtow1n/status/1015754963404951552

C) Can You Move The Football In Big Games When You Need To?

Not in 2017 we couldn't. Our scheme was very basic and our imagination almost non-existent. We lacked talent at WR and stayed injured there. We dropped critical passes. We turned the ball over. So why will 2018 be different? More maturity from an offense returning basically 9 starters plus quality back-ups. It's always easier when you have been there before. The addition of Kylin Hill into the offense more. Kid is an offensive force and SEC-ready now. More talent at WR and the return of Malik Dear from injury. Whop is better than anybody that started for us at WR in our bowl game. Guidry will make an impact. We have depth in the slot with Dear, Mixon, and Thomas. The talent at TE.

Bottom line- the 2018 offense will keep teams off balance more than we have in previous seasons.

D) Do You Have A Good Defense?

The simple answer is Yes. There seems to be some angst about Shoop but one thing you have to remember- the more talent you have? The less you have to coach. Shoop has been a very good coach in the past and has a great reputation. I'm not going to hold the Tennessee debacle against him because as we have seen- it was a complete cluster**** up there. The simple fact that Shoop had enough sense to move Gerri Green to the position he was born to play gives him a thumbs up already from me. I've asked for this move for 4 years.

We know about the DL- what about the rest? Well, LB should be an absolute strength altho the depth is an unknown. Errol Thompson is an absolute tackling machine- finishing 7th in tackles in 2017 as he slowly started taking playing time from upperclassmen. Willie Gay lived up to the hype- making Freshman All-SEC. Leo Lewis had way too many distractions in 2017- but alot of that has died down now and should allow him more focus on the football field. Expect a bounceback season from him. That gives us 3 good ILB's in Shoop's 4-2-5. Hopefully Washington steps up to take that 4th spot on the 2-deep.

Secondary? This is a team that will be very good at Safety. SEC Interception leader Mark McLaurin returns along with Jonathan Abram. Add in Landrews from juco and Murphy from WP- and you got a good crew. Where does Brian Cole play? Talented guy that has to be on the field. Veterans Jamal Peters and Cam Dantzler have shown they can make plays. CJ Morgan,,,,Maurice Smitherman....Chris Rayford....all looking fighting for playing time in what should be an improved Secondary in 2018.

State was 3rd in the SEC in Total D last year. I see nothing in 2018 that should cause that to drop.

E) Kicking Game?

State has a new punter in 2018- but he comes in with some hype. Christman returns as the kicker after a damn good freshman season. The kicking part of Special Teams. Coverage? The depth this team has ensures that quality players will be on coverage teams should do a good job. New ST Coach Joey Jones should handle this part of our team well.

F) Coaching

Are their concerns about this coaching staff being new? Sure
Are their concerns about a HC that hasnt done it yet in a P-5 game? Sure

However, this State team in 2018 is in a different spot than 99% of teams that get a new coach. It's a very talented, veteran team that has veteran HC's on its staff. JoMo has head coaching experience and while it was on a smaller level- it's still valuable. People get too caught up with the glam of bigtime football. There are guys coaching HS or juco out there that are better coaches than a Les Miles or Gene Chizik. Some people get chances or know the right people- others don't. Larry Coker was an OC that won a title in his 1st season as a HC- why? Because he inherited a talented team. Gus Malzahn went 9-3 at Ark St in his 1st year as a major HC and then played for the title in Year 2. Why? He inherited talented teams. Jimbo Fisher won 10 games in year 1. Hell, look at the improvements Mullen and Freeze made in their 1st seasons- improving their team's win totals. Boom came in and made SC better. I could go on and on....

After being around this staff, it's easy to see we have upgraded. It's a completely more professional approach and structured environment now. And just think about the upgrades offensively? Hud taking over for Looney....Getsy over Gonzo...Huff over Knox...Johnson over Hevesy...Other SEC coaches already know what's in Starkville right now- but other fanbases are about to learn. Our recruiting right now is just a hint of things to come.

G) And Finally- Schedule

If we had LSU's schedule there is no way I'd be saying we could challenge for the title- but we dont. We play a solid OOC game on the road- but this veteran team will handle the venue. We get Auburn and Florida at home. Those will be tough games but good teams win those games at home. We get LSU after they have played a stretch of Miami, Auburn, Mississippi, Florida, and Georgia in the 1st 7 weeks of the season. Road games at Kentucky and Mississippi have to be won. It's a schedule that gives us a chance to win the West.



Mississippi State will have every chance to win the SEC Title in 2018. This is the best team with the best staff Mississippi State has had in my lifetime. It's getting closer to time to enjoy the ride. HailState!!



Why State won't win the SEC West in 2018?

Simply couldn't pull off a win in Tuscaloosa. Pretty simple

As always excellent analysis hitting on the 3 aspects of a football team. Thanks Coach, good to see you!

[Thick]

Good post, well said, and pretty spot on!

[Bully13]

# Bring Back Coach 34 and to hell with the coffee hate.

[ShotgunDawg]

Good gracious it's glad to have you back.

Please please please never leave us again

[BrunswickDawg]

In some ways I feel like I did in the summer of 2014. We all just knew we had something special building. The big questions were would the OL perform, could our defense improve under Collins, and was Dak going to be what we all thought we could be. We have none of those questions. None.

I agree with you C34 - it all comes down to Bama. But, I'm going to add this. We have a CFP caliber team. There, I said IT. We will go into T-Town challenging for a National Title. This isn't a paper tiger team. We have the horses. They are motivated to prove people - one in particular - wrong.

This is Our year.

[Bulldog1]

I agree.

I believe State vs. Alabama will decide the west; and this is our best chance to beat Saban.

[HoopsDawg]

Excellent post. Brian Cole will be our starter at nickel safety and he is an impact player. My only concern with him is getting ejected for taking someone's head off.

Our talent deficiencies are at corner and I'm still concerned about outside WR's.

I love our coaching staff except for Shoop. Shoop might do a great job like he did at Vandy, but I'm still a little worried. Not overly concerned, but a little worried.

[Ari Gold]

It's that time of year again where I usually make my SEC Predictions- but because this is a special year I'm going to do something different. The SEC is fairly cut and dried this year with Georgia the easy favorite in the East. In the West you have Bama, Auburn, and State and then a clear divide with the rest of the West. Today I make my case why Miss State will and won't win the SEC West.

A) The SEC is a Line of Scrimmage League

You guys have seen me post this a 100 times over the years. It's just as true today as it was in 1975. The footprint of the SEC is the breeding ground for defensive linemen in the United States. Just like you can find a WR on every street corner in Miami, you can find a defensive lineman in every county or parish in SEC Territory. So what does State look like on the LOS? Phil Steele says we have the 3rd best DL in college football and I can't really argue except that I wouldn't trade our DL for Ohio State's. Clemson is a clear #1 but after that State, Ohio State, Bama, and Auburn are all nasty. But in today's football, it's not just what your starters do, it about depth because of the number of plays these guys have to play every week due to the no-huddle, hurry up style of offenses. Everybody knows that Jeffrey Simmons and Montez Sweat were All-SEC last year. They will learn quickly how big it is for us to finally play Gerri Green in his natural position at DE and see him shine. But where we will win big games is because of the play of Chauncey Rivers, Marquiss Spencer, Corey Thomas, and Tre Brown. That 2nd DL would start intact for at least half of the D-1 football programs in America. When we sub and there is no noticeable drop or weak spots- that makes you tough to handle. And I still haven't mentioned Fletcher Adams, Aaron Odom, Lee Autry, or others that can play.

What about the O-Line? I have taught you guys over the years the importance of returning starters on the OL. This is super-important to your team's success. State returns 4 starters along with their new LT who made 4 starts last season. Eiland getting his cherry popped last year was absolutely best case scenario for 2018. State's OL in 2017 was one of the top units in the country. They were 14th in TFL's allowed, 5th in Sacks Allowed, and 8th in 3rd down conversions. Returning these 5 guys that have been playing together awhile now is huge for cohesiveness and confidence. This group also has some depth now after RS'ing a couple of jucos and getting some playing time for others last season.

B) You Must Have A Good QB

In 2018, State has a 5th year Senior that is going to become the All-Time leader rusher in SEC History at the QB position. That's incredible. Fitz has accounted for 72 TD's in his career. If Fitz puts up another 36 total TD's as he has averaged- he will finish 5th all-time in the SEC behind Dakota Prescott. He would need 42 to tie Dak for 4th. When he takes his 1st snap in September, Fitz will be 9 months post-surgery. By all accounts- he is ready to go physically.

The knock by some of Fitz's critics is on his passing. He threw for 21/10 2423 in 2016 but had some fall back in 2017. Your's truly warned you about that before last season due to his lack of talent and inexperience at WR. Add to the fact Gray and Myles stayed injured in 2017- plus a high number of drops, and he had about the kind of season I expected. This year- we have a guy that due to his injury has had to really focus on his passing and technique. He is also a graduate now, more mature, and someone that has more time to spend in the film room because he no longer takes as many classes. That will be important come September. We also know that more talent has been added to the WR group for 2018- as well as experience gained by the youngsters.

Another aspect that will help Fitz in 2018 is his new offense. While Moorhead runs his QB quite often just as Mullen did- JoMo's passing game with certain RPO's makes for easier throws and higher percentage passing to TE's and RB's. I see Fitz throwing for close to 30 TD's in 2018 because of the new scheme and plays like this one his coach uses:

https://twitter.com/1coachtow1n/status/1015754963404951552

C) Can You Move The Football In Big Games When You Need To?

Not in 2017 we couldn't. Our scheme was very basic and our imagination almost non-existent. We lacked talent at WR and stayed injured there. We dropped critical passes. We turned the ball over. So why will 2018 be different? More maturity from an offense returning basically 9 starters plus quality back-ups. It's always easier when you have been there before. The addition of Kylin Hill into the offense more. Kid is an offensive force and SEC-ready now. More talent at WR and the return of Malik Dear from injury. Whop is better than anybody that started for us at WR in our bowl game. Guidry will make an impact. We have depth in the slot with Dear, Mixon, and Thomas. The talent at TE.

Bottom line- the 2018 offense will keep teams off balance more than we have in previous seasons.

D) Do You Have A Good Defense?

The simple answer is Yes. There seems to be some angst about Shoop but one thing you have to remember- the more talent you have? The less you have to coach. Shoop has been a very good coach in the past and has a great reputation. I'm not going to hold the Tennessee debacle against him because as we have seen- it was a complete cluster**** up there. The simple fact that Shoop had enough sense to move Gerri Green to the position he was born to play gives him a thumbs up already from me. I've asked for this move for 4 years.

We know about the DL- what about the rest? Well, LB should be an absolute strength altho the depth is an unknown. Errol Thompson is an absolute tackling machine- finishing 7th in tackles in 2017 as he slowly started taking playing time from upperclassmen. Willie Gay lived up to the hype- making Freshman All-SEC. Leo Lewis had way too many distractions in 2017- but alot of that has died down now and should allow him more focus on the football field. Expect a bounceback season from him. That gives us 3 good ILB's in Shoop's 4-2-5. Hopefully Washington steps up to take that 4th spot on the 2-deep.

Secondary? This is a team that will be very good at Safety. SEC Interception leader Mark McLaurin returns along with Jonathan Abram. Add in Landrews from juco and Murphy from WP- and you got a good crew. Where does Brian Cole play? Talented guy that has to be on the field. Veterans Jamal Peters and Cam Dantzler have shown they can make plays. CJ Morgan....Maurice Smitherman....Chris Rayford....all looking fighting for playing time in what should be an improved Secondary in 2018.

State was 3rd in the SEC in Total D last year. I see nothing in 2018 that should cause that to drop.

E) Kicking Game?

State has a new punter in 2018- but he comes in with some hype. Christman returns as the kicker after a damn good freshman season. The kicking part of Special Teams should be fine. Coverage? The depth this team has ensures that quality players will be on coverage teams should do a good job. New ST Coach Joey Jones should handle this part of our team well.

F) Coaching

Are there concerns about this coaching staff being new? Sure
Are there concerns about a HC that hasnt done it yet in a P-5 game? Sure

However, this State team in 2018 is in a different spot than 99% of teams that get a new coach. It's a very talented, veteran team that has veteran HC's on its staff. JoMo has head coaching experience and while it was on a smaller level- it's still valuable. People get too caught up with the glam of bigtime football. There are guys coaching HS or juco out there that are better coaches than a Les Miles or Gene Chizik. Some people get chances or know the right people- others don't. Larry Coker was an OC that won a title in his 1st season as a HC- why? Because he inherited a talented team. Gus Malzahn went 9-3 at Ark St in his 1st year as a major HC and then played for the title in Year 2. Why? He inherited talented teams. Jimbo Fisher won 10 games in year 1. Hell, look at the improvements Mullen and Freeze made in their 1st seasons- improving their team's win totals. Boom came in and made SC better. I could go on and on....

After being around this staff, it's easy to see we have upgraded. It's a completely more professional approach and structured environment now. And just think about the upgrades offensively? Hud taking over for Looney....Getsy over Gonzo...Huff over Knox...Johnson over Hevesy...Other SEC coaches already know what's in Starkville right now- but other fanbases are about to learn. Our recruiting right now is just a hint of things to come.

G) And Finally- Schedule

If we had LSU's schedule there is no way I'd be saying we could challenge for the title- but we dont. We play a solid OOC game on the road- but this veteran team will handle the venue. We get Auburn and Florida at home. Those will be tough games but good teams win those games at home. We get LSU after they have played a stretch of Miami, Auburn, Mississippi, Florida, and Georgia in the 1st 7 weeks of the season. Road games at Kentucky and Mississippi have to be won. It's a schedule that gives us a chance to win the West.



Mississippi State will have every chance to win the SEC Title in 2018. This is the best team with the best staff Mississippi State has had in my lifetime. It's getting closer to time to enjoy the ride. HailState!!



Why State won't win the SEC West in 2018?

Simply couldn't pull off a win in Tuscaloosa. Pretty simple


Solid breakdown

At CB RS freshman Williams had a very good spring and the staff likes him. He will see his share of snaps
At LB I have no idea how good he is but Kilby-Lane juco from Colin should be In the mix for the 2’s. Kid played as a frosh at FSU
Cole will start in the 4-2-5 look Shoop runs . And he will be a difference maker.. the depth behind McClaurin and Abram is a concern. Lots of guys just not much experience
A 100% Mixon could have a big year with the presence of Guidry who is very good.

[Bully13]

Solid breakdown

At CB RS freshman Williams had a very good spring and the staff likes him. He will see his share of snaps
At LB I have no idea how good he is but Kilby-Lane juco from Colin should be In the mix for the 2’s. Kid played as a frosh at FSU
Cole will start in the 4-2-5 look Shoop runs . And he will be a difference maker.. the depth behind McClaurin and Abram is a concern. Lots of guys just not much experience
A 100% Mixon could have a big year with the presence of Guidry who is very good.

Interesting on Kily-Lane. Wondering why not more offers outta Juco. As a H.S. Senior, was the top rated Middle LB out of FL. Played at the Army-All American game. So he's a senior and this will be his first and final year at MSU?

[maroonmania]

I've heard way too many people discount JoMo's HC experience because it was Fordham but I agree with you. HC experience is HC experience. He knows how he wants to run practice, he's had to make in-game decisions, and like you said, he's backed up by a ton of veteran HC's. While I expect a WTF moment every now and then while he and his staff get adjusted to the new team, I don't think it'll be anything like Mullen learning to be a HC.

And not just HC experience for the sake of HC experience. It was HC experience where he turned a losing program into a winning program. JoMo has won big everywhere he has been on staff. I mean can you imagine getting UCONN to the freakin' Fiesta Bowl. Well they did that when they had JoMo on staff.

[Ari Gold]

Interesting on Kily-Lane. Wondering why not more offers outta Juco. As a H.S. Senior, was the top rated Middle LB out of FL. Played at the Army-All American game. So he's a senior and this will be his first and final year at MSU?

I Think he has 2 left
Took a redshirt one year ..

[preachermatt83]

Very good breakdown C34

[Commercecomet24]

Excellent analysis! You always do a great job evaluating our football team, C34.

[Bulldog1]

Yeah Ari- I think Mixon may have a big year.

[Todd4State]

Let me sum this up. We have a chance to win the SEC because Dan and his country club are in Florida and so we won't have coaches that act like ******* when we play another good team and they won't be actively looking for another job when the Egg Bowl comes around.

[Todd4State]

Yeah Ari- I think Mixon may have a big year.

If he's 100% I like Dear better. Both are really good players.

[Bulldog1]

If he's 100% I like Dear better. Both are really good players.

Yeah I really like Dear too. Solid depth in the slot.

[Dental Dawg33]

Our defensive front will help the secondary a lot. QB decisions and routes will have to be cut short because of the pressure.
As far as the big games go I'm expecting a night and day difference because I truly believe we have a coach now that won't tuck his Weiner between his legs when Saban is standing across the field. This is our year.

[MarketingBully]

This is one of your best posts I have seen and you do know football. I?ll give you that. Great post C34.

[Pit Bull]

You're correct coach.....having that 1,000+ yd. rusher returning for us is huge. Not too many SEC teams have that. Everybody's pinning all our hopes just on BAMA is a little bit off though. I would add in Auburn. They are just about as good as BAMA. We should have a great year though. I have us at 10-2 and a trip to a nice Florida bowl. Exciting times ahead!!

[msbulldog]

In some ways I feel like I did in the summer of 2014. We all just knew we had something special building. The big questions were would the OL perform, could our defense improve under Collins, and was Dak going to be what we all thought we could be. We have none of those questions. None.

I agree with you C34 - it all comes down to Bama. But, I'm going to add this. We have a CFP caliber team. There, I said IT. We will go into T-Town challenging for a National Title. This isn't a paper tiger team. We have the horses. They are motivated to prove people - one in particular - wrong.

This is Our year.

Yes! I wish this was the year we had bama at home! You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to BrunswickDawg again.

[SmokeyDawg]

Agreed on all. I think if it wasn't for our numbers on the DL Spencer, Adams, Kobe Jones would all have a huge break out season. Not that they are the only ones and not that it can't still happen. Those guys are play makers. Ready to see what Rivers can do too.

I really like the combination of Shoop leading some top passing defenses (#3 in passing yards per game last year although that could be bc offenses could run on them) and the continuity of holding on to Baker with the stud loaded DL.

Did anyone see Dear in spring practices? Can't remember how much he was involved in practice or how healthy he was then. If he still has the speed he had as a freshman he could play a huge role for us.

[Bully13]

Didn't we struggle at times last year putting pressure on the QB? How did we look overall in that dept last year?

[Todd4State]

Agreed on all. I think if it wasn't for our numbers on the DL Spencer, Adams, Kobe Jones would all have a huge break out season. Not that they are the only ones and not that it can't still happen. Those guys are play makers. Ready to see what Rivers can do too.

I really like the combination of Shoop leading some top passing defenses (#3 in passing yards per game last year although that could be bc offenses could run on them) and the continuity of holding on to Baker with the stud loaded DL.

Did anyone see Dear in spring practices? Can't remember how much he was involved in practice or how healthy he was then. If he still has the speed he had as a freshman he could play a huge role for us.

Shoop had the misfortune of playing Georgia Tech last year which skews their rushing stats some.

[Todd4State]

Didn't we struggle at times last year putting pressure on the QB? How did we look overall in that dept last year?

Well we return the SEC leader in sacks so we were probably decent.

Looked it up- we were 5th in the SEC is sacks and also 5th in tackles for loss.

[Bully13]

Well we return the SEC leader in sacks so we were probably decent.

Looked it up- we were 5th in the SEC is sacks and also 5th in tackles for loss.

My bad. Ranked 22 in the nation and 3rd in SEC behind Bamer and LSU. We gonna kill it this year.

[SmokeyDawg]

Didn't we struggle at times last year putting pressure on the QB? How did we look overall in that dept last year?

I'm less worried about pressuring the QB than anything else on our team. Teams are going to need help from TE and RB to stop our rush. Even Hoyett, Thomas, Adams, Spencer, Jones, Brown, Autrie will beat their fair share of 1 on 1 match ups.

[MarketingBully]

This could be a year where we: go to a NY6 bowl, Sweet 16 in men’s and women’s basketball, and CWS in baseball. I don’t think anyone has ever done that. I think we do that in the 2018-2019 school year and possibly take home our first national championship in one of the big 4. Would be amazing but that’s where we are.

[Bothrops]

Good stuff from 34.

[Bully13]

I'm less worried about pressuring the QB than anything else on our team. Teams are going to need help from TE and RB to stop our rush. Even Hoyett, Thomas, Adams, Spencer, Jones, Brown, Autrie will beat their fair share of 1 on 1 match ups.

Yep, I don't know what I was thinking, I went and looked. We were 22nd in the nation and 3rd in the SEC Behind bamer and LSU. We gonna kill it.

[Pollodawg]

Could we win the SEC West? Yes. Will we? Completely different question obviously. The talent is there, but Auburn, LSU, Bama, and TAMU all have more "talent" (not maturity) than we do. Any one of those teams could beat us. LSU is the least likely to beat us in that scenario, tho, due to their coach being.....well........Ed Orgeron. Auburn has to come to DWS, and with their Oline being a little gutted, we could--and will have to--make Stidham pretty uncomfortable to win that one. Bama will be a slogfest because they always are, and it's a road game.

I could see us at 6-2 in conference or 3-5. It all depends on how we play and how Moorhead adapts to being a head man at a major program. I don't foresee him having any issues, and--gun to my head--we're closer to 6-2 than 3-5, but it could happen.

[msstate7]

This could be a year where we: go to a NY6 bowl, Sweet 16 in men?s and women?s basketball, and CWS in baseball. I don?t think anyone has ever done that. I think we do that in the 2018-2019 school year and possibly take home our first national championship in one of the big 4. Would be amazing but that?s where we are.

I think this is possible. I think bama wins the sec in football, again. Tua is gonna make bama even more explosive than normal. I think our best shot at an sec championship this season is in basketball

[Gutter Cobreh]

Thanks for your thoughts C34. Makes me woolly and ready for kickoff. Thank goodness for the countdown clock on the site.

[Todd4State]

I think this is possible. I think bama wins the sec in football, again. Tua is gonna make bama even more explosive than normal. I think our best shot at an sec championship this season is in basketball

Yeah. I just can not see the SEC allowing MSU to win in football in Tuscaloosa. Unless Alabama is down like 1997 or 2006.

So our best chance is to hope everything goes well for us and Bama has at least two losses coming into our game with them. Which won't happen.

[BuckyIsAB****]

No mention of Austin Williams at WR? He is the best one we have rn. He was easily the best all spring

[MoreCowbell]

Agree on everything but while the new punter comes in with a lot of hype, we really need him to be big. Field position will be key in big games with our defense. Logan was a really good punter for us and very underrated.

[TrapGame]

C34 shows up and now, dammit, I'm all...

https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/543841306.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=618&h=410&crop=1

[DawgRockur]

When I saw you mentioned your name in the topic of the post, I nearly did not read it.

Glad I did, great post. I agree with you on most accounts. Nearly at 50 days until football season!

[MarketingBully]

I think this is possible. I think bama wins the sec in football, again. Tua is gonna make bama even more explosive than normal. I think our best shot at an sec championship this season is in basketball

I’m with Jake Wimberly and will say we go 10-2 in football with a Sugar Bowl appearance. I think we get to the Elite Eight in men’s basketball. I think we get to another finals in women’s basketball and I think we win a national championship in baseball.

[msstate7]

Stole this from strat on sps...

Vegas released a couple of lines on MSU..
MSU -2.5 at Kansas State
MSU -3 vs Florida
MSU +7 vs Auburn
MSU +3 at LSU
MSU -4 vs Texas A&M
MSU +19.5 at Bama
MSU -11 at OM

https://news.wagertalk.com/westgate-...s-of-the-year/

...

Vegas doesn't seem to see us even close to bama

[Bully13]

Stole this from strat on sps...

Vegas released a couple of lines on MSU..
MSU -2.5 at Kansas State
MSU -3 vs Florida
MSU +7 vs Auburn
MSU +3 at LSU
MSU -4 vs Texas A&M
MSU +19.5 at Bama
MSU -11 at OM

https://news.wagertalk.com/westgate-...s-of-the-year/

...

Vegas doesn't seem to see us even close to bama

Hard to argue a lot with Vegas on this even though they seem to be low balling us at Bama. Really like the -11 at shit bird U. Not getting the + 3 at LSU all things considered at present minus the 20 year history. Starting to think maybe I'll remain generate and hold on to my $100.

[TrapGame]

Hard to argue a lot with Vegas on this even though they seem to be low balling us at Bama. Really like the -11 at shit bird U. Not getting the + 3 at LSU all things considered at present minus the 20 year history. Starting to think maybe I'll remain generate and hold on to my $100.

I guess LSU is getting 3 for home field cause they sure ain't getting it for the better coach. That LSU game is going to be something. Ed O will be coaching for his job. I'm a little surprised at the -4 for the A&M game. I'd thought with all the Jimbo hype they'd be favored by 2 or 3.

[BuckyIsAB****]

Stole this from strat on sps...

Vegas released a couple of lines on MSU..
MSU -2.5 at Kansas State
MSU -3 vs Florida
MSU +7 vs Auburn
MSU +3 at LSU
MSU -4 vs Texas A&M
MSU +19.5 at Bama
MSU -11 at OM

https://news.wagertalk.com/westgate-...s-of-the-year/

...

Vegas doesn't seem to see us even close to bama

There is no way Auburn will be favored by a TD at State and no way Bama will be favored by 20 at home

[msstate7]

There is no way Auburn will be favored by a TD at State and no way Bama will be favored by 20 at home

Apparently, they already are. Of course they will be different later

[BuckyIsAB****]

Apparently, they already are. Of course they will be different later

You knew what I meant. By gameweek I would say Auburn is favored by no more than 3 or its even odds and Bama is favored by 7-10

[Covercorner2]

Stole this from strat on sps...

Vegas released a couple of lines on MSU..
MSU -2.5 at Kansas State
MSU -3 vs Florida
MSU +7 vs Auburn
MSU +3 at LSU
MSU -4 vs Texas A&M
MSU +19.5 at Bama
MSU -11 at OM

https://news.wagertalk.com/westgate-...s-of-the-year/

...

Vegas doesn't seem to see us even close to bama

Keep in mind, this isn?t how ?good? or ?bad? Vegas thinks we or other teams will be. It?s the public?s perception. This time of year before games are played, that perception even more so relvolves around history, names on jerseys, etc.

That?s why the best time to win $ is early in the year and why it becomes tougher later on.

If we start out 4-0, yes we may be favored more against UF, but not because we all the sudden became ?better,? the public just became more aware because of exposure. And so on, and so forth.

[Turfdawg67]

Get your money on the Bama & Auburn game while you can... those lines will get much tighter as the season goes on!

[TUSK]

You knew what I meant. By gameweek I would say Auburn is favored by no more than 3 or its even odds and Bama is favored by 7-10

I thought 19 & the hook was a bit high. As of now, I don’t think I’d lay much more than ~13-16.

[BuckyIsAB****]

I thought 19 & the hook was a bit high. As of now, I don’t think I’d lay much more than ~13-16.

What would you bet on the Lville game week 1? I'd like to see what that line is.

I'd take yall to win by 31 or so. Y'all do normally play yalls worst game of the season usually in that first game but still. Lville is up shit creek without a paddle

[Turfdawg67]

I thought 19 & the hook was a bit high. As of now, I don’t think I’d lay much more than ~13-16.

Gimme 16, I'll take that right now.

[TUSK]

What would you bet on the Lville game week 1? I'd like to see what that line is.

I'd take yall to win by 31 or so. Y'all do normally play yalls worst game of the season usually in that first game but still. Lville is up shit creek without a paddle

Don’t hold me to it, Bucky, but I want to say I saw a line of 31 on the L,vile game. Those cats are gonna get broken.

[TUSK]

Gimme 16, I'll take that right now.

I’ll spilt the difference at 14.5 for a hundo, how copy?

[bigplayslay]

Just have to travel well to T- Town and take down Saban! Great post Coach.

[justwin]

You left off the most important thing, this staff will feature our stud rbs via power plays and designing plays for them in space to score. Featuring big powerful rbs reduces the need for dominating ol and qb.

Also, whop is on our team. Whop had a quiet recruitment, has kept his head down and been working and this staff will start him game 1.

[Todd4State]

You left off the most important thing, this staff will feature our stud rbs via power plays and designing plays for them in space to score. Featuring big powerful rbs reduces the need for dominating ol and qb.

Also, whop is on our team. Whop had a quiet recruitment, has kept his head down and been working and this staff will start him game 1.

That is a huge factor for us and one big reason why Dan constantly underachieved with us. He didn't always play the best people.

I remember 2015 against Alabama we had a good drive going and we were inside the 10 and we tried to run Holloway up the middle. The results were predictable.

[TUSK]

That is a huge factor for us and one big reason why Dan constantly underachieved with us. He didn't always play the best people.

I remember 2015 against Alabama we had a good drive going and we were inside the 10 and we tried to run Holloway up the middle. The results were predictable.

I shook my head at that, Todd... the most memorable thing I witnessed was his lack of using TimesOut in the '14 game (I think)... He knew the game was over in the early 1st Qtr, but he didn't even try when he had a chance (to have a chance) late...

[Todd4State]

I shook my head at that, Todd... the most memorable thing I witnessed was his lack of using TimesOut in the '14 game (I think)... He knew the game was over in the early 1st Qtr, but he didn't even try when he had a chance (to have a chance) late...

Dan is not a good coach in a close game. And his quirks trip him up constantly. The thing I remember about the 2014 Alabama/MSU game was MSU coming back and having momentum.....and Dan trots out the 1B defense who promptly allow an Alabama touchdown. That would be like losing the College World Series because you have a freshman that hasn't pitched in the CWS and it's his turn while you have an ace closer in the bullpen.

The one time I wish he was conservative was the 2009 LSU game. A simple handoff to AD and we win. I don't think even Chad Jones on superhuman setting could stop AD on the goal line three times in a row. Dan calls an option play with a 5'8" program height walk-on QB one play after he attempts a jump pass with the same walk-on QB instead of handing it off to his future NFL RB who was 240.

The other two that really stand out to me are 2015 against LSU where he took a delay of game which knocked us five yards back on a game winning field goal attempt with a struggling kicker. People can blame Dak- but these are still college players and the head coach has to take charge there and teach a lesson later. I think both whiffed or Dan froze up and Dak was unsure what Dan wanted to do and didn't call a TO in case Dan wanted to save it for some reason. Either way it still falls back on the coach.


The last one that stands out to me was this year when we were tied with Alabama late in the game and he calls a QB draw or whatever QB run on third and long against Alabama's defense. Dan's favorite default play when he doesn't know what the hell to do- and predictably it was stuffed as Alabama knew it was coming despite the long yardage situation. Which just underscores how predictable Dan was.


Another bad one was the St. Petersburg Bowl in 2016 when Nick lost his helmet and had to go out of the game and he had Damien Williams run a pass play on fourth and short instead of calling timeout. Fortunately for Dan and us the kicker from Miami-Ohio sucked and we blocked the kick again to win it. So it's not just "big name opponents" that Dan locks up against. It's just that we were usually good enough to blow out our OOC opponents, Kentucky and anyone on the schedule that was down like Auburn 2012 and Dan wasn't as big of a factor so it went unnoticed more.

[I seen it dawg]

He was a ***** that's why

[Covercorner2]

Get your money on the Bama & Auburn game while you can... those lines will get much tighter as the season goes on!

I agree 19 is a bit high, but you have to realize it?s Bama. Even when we were the #1 team in the country we were 7 point underdogs. That line may not get under 10 regardless of what we do before. Doesn?t mean we can?t beat them, that?s just how much public respect Bama has.