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View Full Version : Dakota Hudson might be getting the call soon...



Dawg61
06-20-2018, 06:36 PM
Michael Wacha headed to DL. Hudson has been lights out for the Redbirds this year with a record of 9-2 and 2.13 era.

Todd4State
06-20-2018, 06:38 PM
Could be him...

Or my guess is John Gant. Daniel Ponce De Leon was also mentioned as well.

Cardinals are a cheap ass organization.

The Federalist Engineer
06-20-2018, 10:41 PM
Would be nice to see him on June 29 when I go watch My Braves in Busch Stadium.

It would be weird to root against an opposing player if he played in that game.

dawgs
06-20-2018, 11:20 PM
Michael Wacha headed to DL. Hudson has been lights out for the Redbirds this year with a record of 9-2 and 2.13 era.

Not to be that guy, but lots of smoke and mirrors behind those numbers. His K rate is south of 7K/9IP and his BB rate is about 3.5BB/9IP. The BB rate could be stomached from a young guy if his K rate was up over 9K/9IP, but under 7 is a recipe for getting lit up sooner rather than later.

dawgs
06-20-2018, 11:24 PM
Could be him...

Or my guess is John Gant. Daniel Ponce De Leon was also mentioned as well.

Cardinals are a cheap ass organization.

Plenty of reasons not to call Hudson up beyond clock reasons. Poncedeleon is would also trigger his clock. Gant is already in the pen for the cards with a few starts on the year, so he'd make sense.

Todd4State
06-21-2018, 12:18 AM
Plenty of reasons not to call Hudson up beyond clock reasons. Poncedeleon is would also trigger his clock. Gant is already in the pen for the cards with a few starts on the year, so he'd make sense.

True on Ponce de Leon but I think long term Hudson is going to cost more money and therefore they would want to keep him down to save more money over the long term.

dawgs
06-21-2018, 08:34 AM
True on Ponce de Leon but I think long term Hudson is going to cost more money and therefore they would want to keep him down to save more money over the long term.

Or they'd like to see substantial improvement in 1 or both of his K and BB rates in the minors before turning him loose on a mlb lineup.

Really Clark?
06-21-2018, 12:40 PM
Or they'd like to see substantial improvement in 1 or both of his K and BB rates in the minors before turning him loose on a mlb lineup.

His walks do need to come down but he is a career 2.59 ERA in the minors and 1.34 his last 5 starts. That’s not smoke and mirrors. He is a ground ball pitcher (like a 60% ground ball rate) so forget him ever having a big K rate

dawgs
06-21-2018, 01:32 PM
His walks do need to come down but he is a career 2.59 ERA in the minors and 1.34 his last 5 starts. That’s not smoke and mirrors. He is a ground ball pitcher (like a 60% ground ball rate) so forget him ever having a big K rate

7 K/9 guys in the bigs are usually closer to 9 K/9 guys in the minors. <7 K/9 guys in the bigs are <6 K/9 guys in the bigs with 5.00 ERAs more often than not. And the ones that have relatively successful careers with that kinda K rate have ~2 BB/9 or lower. I hope Hudson has a 10+ year career in the bigs, but he's a long way away from realistically having success at that level until he corrects that BB ratio

A good comparison should be awfully familiar to state fans: Kendall Graveman (who actually has a significantly better BB ratio in the minors and majors). Graveman is a 4.00+ ERA guy in the bigs with a K under 6K/9 and a GB rate over 50%. In the minors, he was a ~2.00 era guy. If you aren't striking guys out at the mlb level, you have to have elite control, otherwise small sample size success simply isn't sustainable.

Really Clark?
06-21-2018, 05:51 PM
7 K/9 guys in the bigs are usually closer to 9 K/9 guys in the minors. <7 K/9 guys in the bigs are <6 K/9 guys in the bigs with 5.00 ERAs more often than not. And the ones that have relatively successful careers with that kinda K rate have ~2 BB/9 or lower. I hope Hudson has a 10+ year career in the bigs, but he's a long way away from realistically having success at that level until he corrects that BB ratio

A good comparison should be awfully familiar to state fans: Kendall Graveman (who actually has a significantly better BB ratio in the minors and majors). Graveman is a 4.00+ ERA guy in the bigs with a K under 6K/9 and a GB rate over 50%. In the minors, he was a ~2.00 era guy. If you aren't striking guys out at the mlb level, you have to have elite control, otherwise small sample size success simply isn't sustainable.

You are just looking at numbers and completely ignoring what he is right now and what he projects as long term. Your also ignoring what the Cardinals and analysts are seeing. He has added velocity to give him more movement (making his walk rate go up a tick) and his slider is a great pitch but it’s more of almost a hard cutter. He needs to have a good third pitch that’s offspeed. His k rate goes up and he can settle as a good starter. Numbers wise he is close to projecting like Lynn (probably a percentage worse) when he was with the Cardinals in another year or so. But if the 3rd pitch doesn’t come, then he will be a great bullpen guy with just those 2 pitches.

dawgs
06-21-2018, 06:19 PM
You are just looking at numbers and completely ignoring what he is right now and what he projects as long term. Your also ignoring what the Cardinals and analysts are seeing. He has added velocity to give him more movement (making his walk rate go up a tick) and his slider is a great pitch but it’s more of almost a hard cutter. He needs to have a good third pitch that’s offspeed. His k rate goes up and he can settle as a good starter. Numbers wise he is close to projecting like Lynn (probably a percentage worse) when he was with the Cardinals in another year or so. But if the 3rd pitch doesn’t come, then he will be a great bullpen guy with just those 2 pitches.

In baseball, numbers can tell you a lot. I'll be pleasantly surprised if he becomes a quality starting SP given his minor league peripherals, and I don't think the cards are wrong or being cheap to keep him down until those peripherals improve.

Now he could have a long, quality big league career as a bullpen guy, and failed SPs usually see their Ks spike when they only have to throw for 1 inning or less.

Really Clark?
06-21-2018, 06:35 PM
In baseball, numbers can tell you a lot. I'll be pleasantly surprised if he becomes a quality starting SP given his minor league peripherals, and I don't think the cards are wrong or being cheap to keep him down until those peripherals improve.

Now he could have a long, quality big league career as a bullpen guy, and failed SPs usually see their Ks spike when they only have to throw for 1 inning or less.

They are not keeping him down because of numbers. My goodness, they still believe he can be a starter and still compare him to Halladay (5.91 K rate and 2.96 W rate in the minors) in potential. The Cardinals are pretty good in developing and projecting pitchers. But he has to get his curve and change up to at least acceptable range or keep working on the slider he has been using instead of the curve and some sort of change to go with it. And his offspeed offerings are behind because he was a bullpen/closer for us his first two years. But make no mistake it’s not if, it’s when they want to bring him up. And his numbers, 1.34 ERA his last 5 starts while going 6+ innings on average and great ground ball rate don’t worry them at all. Especially in first full year at AAA, everything is better than what he posted late last year in AAA