Postseason run 2-strike approach....

[DeviousDawg]

Throughout this postseason run, we have been making opposing pitchers pay with 2 strikes. Not to be cliche, but the team beats there chest twice before each 2 strike pitch, and through interviews with players it is known that this is Gautreau's thing, "chesting up with 2 strikes". Clearly, 2 strike hitting is very important to Gautreau as a hitting coach, and it is showing. First, you have MacNamee walk off with a 2 strike count against FSU, then you have MacNamee's second walk off bomb against Vandy, once again on a 2 strike count. Then Luke Alexander walks it off with an oppo double, 2 strikes, and finally yesterday, Westburg's Grand Slam with once again a 2 strike count. That's 3 walk offs, and a Grand Slam on the biggest stage, all with 2 strikes, and all in a 10 game stretch against the best of the best. So I decided to dive into the numbers, and found a few interesting things.

-The first set of stats is the overall team statistics over this 10 game postseason run, which can be used as a sort of control to compare 2 strike statistics against.
-The second set of stats is team statistics over the postseason with 2 strikes. The first row is all 2 strike at bats, the second row is all 2 strike at bats from the 8th inning on, and the third row is all 2 strike at bats from the 1st to 7th innings.
-The third set of stats is the individual statistics over the postseason with 2 strike counts

** ">|" = backwards K **



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A few things stand out with the Team stats:


-A team combined 2-strike batting average of (.257) is insane. For reference sake, there are currently only 11 MLB players that are batting over that .257 mark with 2 strikes. Going into the Ole Miss series, our team batting average was (.256) which is lower than our postseason 2 strike batting average. INSANE.

-Not only are we clutch with 2 strikes, but we are even more clutch with 2 strikes late in the game (8th inning and beyond, including extra innings). This postseason, from the 8th innings and beyond, we are batting an unbelievable (.295), with a OPS at (.822), and 11 RBI's in only 44 late inning 2 strike AB's. That's 13 hits and 5 walks compared to only 17 late inning 2 strike AB's that ended in a strike out. To go even further, our late inning 2 strike batting average, is just better than our postseason team batting average of (.293), while that is still great.

-In 10 postseason games, we have hit twelve home runs, while five of them were 2-strike Bombs.



Individually, there are a few shockers:

-
The top three postseason 2-strike batting averages come from the bottom 3 guys in the order with Skelton (.429), Westburg (.375) and Luke Alexander (.318). Then there are 5 guys who still have a good to great 2-strike batting average with Stovall(.267) Foscue (.250), Rowdy (.240), MacNamee (.240) and Mangum (.235), these are still very good numbers. Then we have Tanner Allen at (.125).

-LA, Skelton, and Westburg are just on fire with 2 strikes, all 3 owning an elite postseason 2-strike BA/OBP/SLG slash line, hope they can keep it up.

-Foscue is batting (.250) with 2 strikes, while striking out at the same rate of (.250), this is impressive. While owning a middle of the pack (.250) 2 strike BA, he also owns the highest OBP of (.471), that's insane! He is getting on base nearly every other at bat where he faces 2 strikes. This tells me he is seeing the ball very well right now and is most likely poised for a break out game in the near future. Foscue gets the least amount of publicity out of the freshmen, but he is a sleeping giant in the field at 3B, and has real power potential. He is gonna be a star.

-Mangum's numbers are baffling. He has a good, but not great(by his standards), 2-strike batting average of (.235). He is in the bottom third in almost all the major statistics and for a guy that can't help but swing at everything, he has an uncharacteristically high K-rate and even a more anomalous backwards k rate of (.176). I feel like he feels like he needs to do too much. He is due for a 3-4 hit game.

-Rowdy and MacNamee have the exact same slash line with 2 strikes this postseason of (.240/.269/.480). You can live with the higher K-rates around 40% with these guys, because they can change the game in a swing of a bat, as we all know, and as the difference in their AVG and SLG% shows. One is a freshmen, the other a veteran Junior. Rowdy is going to be something special.

-Now, Tanner Allen. It definitely looks a lot uglier than it actually is because this is just focusing on 2-strike AB's and ignoring all other AB's, he has had some big hits for us this postseason, and a couple moon shots, he does like to rip the first good pitch he sees. However, 2 strike hitting is a part of the game, and he has been just awful this postseason. He has a (.125/.192/.208) slash line in 2-strike AB's this postseason. On top of that, he is striking out nearly 60% of the time when he gets 2 strikes, and even worse, is striking out looking 25% of the time. Can't have this from your 3-hole guy. I'm sure Tanner and Gautreau are working on this, and if they can get it figured out, our lineup will have the potential to carry us all the way. Not to mention the fact that our pitching is looking better now than it has at any point in the last 2 years.



3 more wins, that's the only number that really matters.

[bostondawg]

I would have never guessed Skelton is batting .429 with 2 strikes...

[msstate7]

Really nice research. It would be interesting to see the BABIP for our 2-stike hitting during this period. I would think we've had some good fortune even with a solid approach

[DeviousDawg]

Really nice research. It would be interesting to see the BABIP for our 2-stike hitting during this period. I would think we've had some good fortune even with a solid approach



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Definitely some crazy high BAPIP's. If .300 is considered about average, meaning that a BABIP of .300 generally indicates a player that is neither lucky or unlucky. Below .300 is generally considered being unlucky while above .300 is considered being lucky. This is all relative and general though, as the better the player is in reality over a long period of time, the higher their BABIP would need to be to be considered lucky or unlucky. Same goes for a player who struggles at the plate, but vice versa. Skelton and LA will surely cool down, as their 2-strike BABIP is well above their normal range, if not double. Sadly, Tanner Allens BABIP is indicating that he has not been getting unlucky.

[Homedawg]

I laugh at the Mangum part. He just had a 14 game hit streak broken yesterday. How quickly people forget. And yes he swings at too many, but he’s gotten better see B.B./k rate from past.

[DeviousDawg]

Forget what? The dude is probably my favorite to ever wear the M over S, absolutely incredible college baseball player. Did you miss the part where this is about 2 strike at bats over the last 10 games? Has nothing to do with hit streaks. In fact, someone could own a 100 game hit streak while also owning a (0.000) 2-strike batting average over the same period. With the way Jake makes contact with everything, and has the speed to beat out anything that isn't a routine grounder, I would expect his 2 strike stats to be a bit better, but hey, that's baseball. Again, this is just a 10 game window, and looking at just one piece of that puzzle.

Imagine if Tom Brady had a 2 or 3 game stretch where he had a below average 3rd down conversion ratio for his standards. He still could've average 300+ yards a game during that stretch with 2 or 3 TD a game. It wouldn't change the fact that Tom Brady is the man, and no one would be forgetting that fact.

It's called talking sports.

[confucius say]

Good stuff here.

I heard JG say this morning that we went to our two strike approach against UNC starter yesterday on 0-0 counts later in the game after he retired like 16 in a row. It made a huge difference and it is those type of things that make JG a rising rockstar.

For those that don't know, our two strike approach is crowding plate a little, staying short with less movement, less load, hands already triggered in the slot. Just trying to get ball in play and minimize strike outs. Rowdy's bloop in the 8th is a great example.

[Cooterpoot]

The OPS with 2Ks is crazy good.

[SmokeyDawg]

I was thinking about this yesterday and was wondering where to find those stats. This approach has to get into pitchers heads. How can you feel like you're ahead in the count with these stats?

[The Federalist Engineer]

Cohen talked about Allen struggling yesterday on the radio, "thinking too much". He needs a few hits to break his streak.

It's great to have an AD that can actually go talk to a player like an expert and actually help him.

Great post, glad to see no mention of a coaching search.

[5049]

I like to think these type things matter, but I know a lot of stats guys who claim that 'clutch' and things like that, including 2 out hitting, 2 strike hitting, etc are just another function of the overall skill of the team. I don't know which camp I fall into. I just can't believe that we're all a bunch of drones out there that are subject to consistent forces

I guess stats can tell a picture on a macro level, a general level.....but not so much on an individual level