RPI at 32 on 5-17-18 - Here's what it'll take:

[sleepy dawg]

TLDR: Goto end.
Sooo... I've become obsessed over the past couple of years in trying to figure out the whole selection stuff. Although I still have a lot to learn from a stats standpoint, I at least have a much deeper understanding of RPI than before. Anyway, each team has an RPI number which is kinda like an adjusted win percentage. Good wins/bad losses count more and bad wins/good count very little. You know all this.

Given that, we are currently ranked 32 in RPI, but more importantly we have a 0.5641 RPI number right now. Your ranking just comes from a comparison of everyones RPI number against each other (obviously)
Here's where it gets fun! A win should move us up about .0035 and a loss we should drop about .0018 RPI. This is not exact and will be influenced by what else happens today. So, if we go 1-2, we would expect to have roughly a -.0003 drop (again, this is heavily influenced by all other games being played too). I've done this for a few select games over the past few weeks and tend to be plus or minus 0.0005.

So what does this mean? Well, assuming everything else holds the same, which it will not. Here are the teams in our range.



RPI
Team
Distance to/from MSU


20
Texas
0.0151


21
Jacksonville
0.0147


22
Oklahoma State
0.0124


23
Connecticut
0.0112


24
Tennessee Tech
0.0110


25
South Florida
0.0108


26
Indiana
0.0091


27
Dallas Baptist
0.0042


28
Louisville
0.0041


29
FAU
0.0004


30
Oklahoma
0.0036


31
Ohio State
0.0008


32
Mississippi State
-


33
Missouri
0


34
UCF
-0.0003


35
Saint John's
-0.0014


36
Vanderbilt
-0.0019


37
UCLA
-0.0027


38
South Carolina
-0.0034


39
Wichita State
-0.0040


40
Troy
-0.0041


41
Northeastern
-0.0050


42
Missouri State
-0.0053


43
Arizona
-0.0060


44
Illinois
-0.0064


45
West Virginia
-0.0070



Based on everything else remaining the same, here is where we should roughly rank in RPI given these scenarios:
3-0: 23 to 26 RPI
2-1: 27 RPI
1-2: 32-34 RPI
0-3: 41-43 RPI

[MetEdDawg]

Thanks for all the info.

How much are you able to account for the fact that Florida has the #1 RPI? Not only are they a great win, they are the best win according to the metrics. I have to think that would influence the positivity of a win and decrease the negativity of a loss.

[sleepy dawg]

Thanks for all the info.

How much are you able to account for the fact that Florida has the #1 RPI? Not only are they a great win, they are the best win according to the metrics. I have to think that would influence the positivity of a win and decrease the negativity of a loss.

100%

[Offshore Dawg]

Cut sleepy some slack, he has done his homework. This is not shooting from the hip.

[ScoobaDawg]

TLDR: Goto end.
Sooo... I've become obsessed over the past couple of years in trying to figure out the whole selection stuff. Although I still have a lot to learn from a stats standpoint, I at least have a much deeper understanding of RPI than before. Anyway, each team has an RPI number which is kinda like an adjusted win percentage. Good wins/bad losses count more and bad wins/good count very little. You know all this.

Given that, we are currently ranked 32 in RPI, but more importantly we have a 0.5641 RPI number right now. Your ranking just comes from a comparison of everyones RPI number against each other (obviously)
Here's where it gets fun! A win should move us up about .0035 and a loss we should drop about .0018 RPI. This is not exact and will be influenced by what else happens today. So, if we go 1-2, we would expect to have roughly a -.0003 drop (again, this is heavily influenced by all other games being played too). I've done this for a few select games over the past few weeks and tend to be plus or minus 0.0005.

So what does this mean? Well, assuming everything else holds the same, which it will not. Here are the teams in our range.



RPI
Team
Distance to/from MSU


20
Texas
0.0151


21
Jacksonville
0.0147


22
Oklahoma State
0.0124


23
Connecticut
0.0112


24
Tennessee Tech
0.0110


25
South Florida
0.0108


26
Indiana
0.0091


27
Dallas Baptist
0.0042


28
Louisville
0.0041


29
FAU
0.0004


30
Oklahoma
0.0036


31
Ohio State
0.0008


32
Mississippi State
-


33
Missouri
0


34
UCF
-0.0003


35
Saint John's
-0.0014


36
Vanderbilt
-0.0019


37
UCLA
-0.0027


38
South Carolina
-0.0034


39
Wichita State
-0.0040


40
Troy
-0.0041


41
Northeastern
-0.0050


42
Missouri State
-0.0053


43
Arizona
-0.0060


44
Illinois
-0.0064


45
West Virginia
-0.0070



Based on everything else remaining the same, here is where we should roughly rank in RPI given these scenarios:
3-0: 23 to 26 RPI
2-1: 27 RPI
1-2: 32-34 RPI
0-3: 41-43 RPI

Impressive work on a VERY fluid situation... so hard to know what RPI will end up due to the nature of the number of teams and outcomes that come into play.

Just win 2..

[sleepy dawg]

Impressive work on a VERY fluid situation... so hard to know what RPI will end up due to the nature of the number of teams and outcomes that come into play.

Just win 2..

Yup... It all comes back to that.

To add, sites like warren nolan and boydsword (and sites that feed it) make this easier. They provide data that allows me to do the math and put this together.

[Bulldog1]

RPI is at 28 right now!

[Todd4State]

I think tonight will have us on the right side of the bubble. Win one more and we're probably in.

[MetEdDawg]

RPI now up to 27

[ScoobaDawg]

Impressive work on a VERY fluid situation... so hard to know what RPI will end up due to the nature of the number of teams and outcomes that come into play.

Just win 2..

DING! NOW FREAKING SWEEP!!!
We are 8-1 against 3 of the current top 6 ranked teams this year. That's crazy!

Now up to 26!

[msstate7]

3 big name candidates for our job and their rpi...

JS (tcu) = 62nd
DM (Louisville) = 28th
TC (vandy) = 32nd

I'm not advocating Henderson should be the guy in any way, but anyone concerned that Henderson has outperformed the big name guys this season while starting 4 true freshmen?

[dickiedawg]

No.

[msstate7]

No.

Me either. I'd take any of them in a heart beat. Just found it interesting

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

3 big name candidates for our job and their rpi...

JS (tcu) = 62nd
DM (Louisville) = 28th
TC (vandy) = 32nd

I'm not advocating Henderson should be the guy in any way, but anyone concerned that Henderson has outperformed the big name guys this season while starting 4 true freshmen?

Ah I was waiting on this to start coming up.

[msstate7]

Ah I was waiting on this to start coming up.

Again, I would take any of 3 over Henderson in a heartbeat. I do think it was a valid question though... the coach I am really dreaming about (schloss)to replace Henderson is about to miss the tourney while Henderson seems to be a lock haha

[MetEdDawg]

We have 15 Top 50 wins and have wins over teams like Sam Houston State and Louisiana who are sitting at 53 and 55 respectively.

That's the 8th most in all of college baseball and of the 7 teams with more, 6 of them are SEC teams. We should be in for sure now, but with another win today I think we should be a 2 seed. That would give us 16 or more Top 50 wins, a .500 conference record, and a Top 25 RPI. In a conference that will get 5 hosts, how the hell does that not get us a 2 seed?

ETA: I would love to see an update of the RPI situation from your perspective as far as the numbers go. Would love to see what everything looks like now after the games this weekend.

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

Again, I would take any of 3 over Henderson in a heartbeat. I do think it was a valid question though... the coach I am really dreaming about (schloss)to replace Henderson is about to miss the tourney while Henderson seems to be a lock haha

I know, I'm almost certain there will be others who are legitimately worried about it though or use it as a talking point for whatever agenda they have. If a down year for McDonnell is being #28 RPI then sign me up, because that would probably rank in the top half of our final RPIs over the past 15 years. I don't know what to think about Schloss this year, but if he has one season like this every ten years, I think we'll be able to look past it.

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

Double post

[I seen it dawg]

3 big name candidates for our job and their rpi...

JS (tcu) = 62nd
DM (Louisville) = 28th
TC (vandy) = 32nd

I'm not advocating Henderson should be the guy in any way, but anyone concerned that Henderson has outperformed the big name guys this season while starting 4 true freshmen?

Lol outperformed? You are basing this on RPI alone? Or is this more of your eye test?