Todd4State
05-10-2018, 12:12 AM
While there has been a lot of Hendersoning going on all year, there is also little doubt that our pitching staff is limited. The best thing about tonight- besides winning and winning on a walk-off bunt at that- is the fact that Blake Smith and Riley Self pitched well. At least Smith did until he was tired. It's still a bright spot.
So, how do we manage this? Let's assume Self and Smith are now healthy.
Pilkington has gone at least 5 innings in ever start except one- Alabama when he pitched 4.2 innings. Normally in SEC play he has been getting to at least the 6th and often times through the 7th inning. So, we're looking at 2-3 innings on Friday nights of relief typically. So since we are going up against the other teams ace I would go with France for the last 2-3 if we have a lead and if we don't I would go with Cole Gordon and hope for the best. And yes, I know that Gordon has an ERA of a nice and tidy 5.00 on the year and 7.00 on the year in SEC play. However, in his last 8 IP he has only allowed 2 earned runs and all but one of those outings was against a SEC team. He has been solid lately and he pitched very well against Florida last year.
Ethan Small has been typically about as durable if not moreso than Pilkington. His shortest outing was against Ole Miss and it wasn't his fault that Josh Hatcher was in LF that day. Otherwise he has pitched into the sixth inning in each of his other SEC starts but he has only been able to get through the seventh twice this year. So, typically we're looking at three innings here. If we have the lead, I would go with Neff for one, Self for one and bring in Self if Neff gets in trouble, and Smith for one. If France is available I might consider him for one inning although I would prefer to not use him on Saturday if at all possible. If we are way behind I might go to whoever is available among the Keegan James's and if he is available Cole Gordon.
Sunday I think I would still go with Billingsley. He has been inconsistent which has been par for his career. Sometimes he gives us 5 IP and sometimes he can't get out of the first although to be fair if he does struggle he usually will still at least be able to get through 2-3 innings. But the thing about Billingsley is that when he is on he tends to be white hot on. But you never know when he is going to do that. If he is hot- we just need to let him go do his thing. If he's not we need to get him the heck out of there. The problem is the deepest France has ever gone into a game with us is 5 IP. McQuary pitched better today and while I think I might be OK with giving him a look he has an ERA of 18.00 in SEC play which doesn't include the four runs he allowed in the Governor's Cup. So, he hasn't pitched all that well and if we bring him in after JB has struggled and we need someone to throw strikes- McQuary is probably not the guy to do that and based on the numbers is more likely to dig us into an ever deeper hole. Of course, we're going to have to go with whoever is available anyway on Sunday. But if we can get through the first four with whoever and then turn it over to France we have a good chance to win. Neff and Self may be a good answer to bridge between JB and France depending on the situation. Of course, there is about a 50% chance of JB getting through the first four anyway.
So, why not start France? For me it's because of our bullpen depth. If we keep France in the pen we can use him more and save guys like Smith, Self, and Neff and Smith and Self have had injuries this year. Now, Self has been rumored to be better and tonight reinforces that. If he can be a two inning guy like last year that would help us immensely and may make us a sleeper in the postseason if we get there.
So, how do we manage this? Let's assume Self and Smith are now healthy.
Pilkington has gone at least 5 innings in ever start except one- Alabama when he pitched 4.2 innings. Normally in SEC play he has been getting to at least the 6th and often times through the 7th inning. So, we're looking at 2-3 innings on Friday nights of relief typically. So since we are going up against the other teams ace I would go with France for the last 2-3 if we have a lead and if we don't I would go with Cole Gordon and hope for the best. And yes, I know that Gordon has an ERA of a nice and tidy 5.00 on the year and 7.00 on the year in SEC play. However, in his last 8 IP he has only allowed 2 earned runs and all but one of those outings was against a SEC team. He has been solid lately and he pitched very well against Florida last year.
Ethan Small has been typically about as durable if not moreso than Pilkington. His shortest outing was against Ole Miss and it wasn't his fault that Josh Hatcher was in LF that day. Otherwise he has pitched into the sixth inning in each of his other SEC starts but he has only been able to get through the seventh twice this year. So, typically we're looking at three innings here. If we have the lead, I would go with Neff for one, Self for one and bring in Self if Neff gets in trouble, and Smith for one. If France is available I might consider him for one inning although I would prefer to not use him on Saturday if at all possible. If we are way behind I might go to whoever is available among the Keegan James's and if he is available Cole Gordon.
Sunday I think I would still go with Billingsley. He has been inconsistent which has been par for his career. Sometimes he gives us 5 IP and sometimes he can't get out of the first although to be fair if he does struggle he usually will still at least be able to get through 2-3 innings. But the thing about Billingsley is that when he is on he tends to be white hot on. But you never know when he is going to do that. If he is hot- we just need to let him go do his thing. If he's not we need to get him the heck out of there. The problem is the deepest France has ever gone into a game with us is 5 IP. McQuary pitched better today and while I think I might be OK with giving him a look he has an ERA of 18.00 in SEC play which doesn't include the four runs he allowed in the Governor's Cup. So, he hasn't pitched all that well and if we bring him in after JB has struggled and we need someone to throw strikes- McQuary is probably not the guy to do that and based on the numbers is more likely to dig us into an ever deeper hole. Of course, we're going to have to go with whoever is available anyway on Sunday. But if we can get through the first four with whoever and then turn it over to France we have a good chance to win. Neff and Self may be a good answer to bridge between JB and France depending on the situation. Of course, there is about a 50% chance of JB getting through the first four anyway.
So, why not start France? For me it's because of our bullpen depth. If we keep France in the pen we can use him more and save guys like Smith, Self, and Neff and Smith and Self have had injuries this year. Now, Self has been rumored to be better and tonight reinforces that. If he can be a two inning guy like last year that would help us immensely and may make us a sleeper in the postseason if we get there.