Scouting JoMo: Receiving Distribution (2012-2017)

[DeviousDawg]

I figured someone would find these numbers interesting. I was curious about how many guys usually make up a JoMo receiving corp (including TE and RB, maybe I should say receiving targets) and how the receptions/yards/touchdowns are distributed throughout. 2012-2017 covers his 4 years as HC at Fordham, as well as his two years at Penn State as an OC. We all know that JoMo likes to target his TE's and RB's, and this will show in the below research. However, the thing that may have surprised me the most, is how few players make up a typical JoMo receiving corp.

Here are JoMo's season averages over the studied 6 year span:


297 receptions
3893 receiving yards
31 receiving TD's

Now, we will look at how this breaks down for each position, and also what percentage of those stats came from the 1st team guy at that position. Remember, these numbers are a seasonal average. The percentages in the parenthesis to the right of each stat are the percentage of that specific team stat coming from that specific position, same is for the 1st team stats, but instead it gives the percentage from that specific player, rather than that specific position. It will make sense

Running Back:

Total:


45.8 receptions (15.4% of team total)
430 receiving yards (11%)
3.5 receving TD's (11.4%)


1st team:


36.8 receptions (12.4%)
355 receiving yards (9.1%)
2.8 receiving TD's (9.2%)


Tight End:

Total:


52.7 receptions (17.7%)
554 receiving yards (14.2%)
5.3 receiving TD's (17.3%)

1st team:


49.3 receptions (16.6%)
516 receiving yards (13.3%)
4.8 receiving TD's (15.7%)

X Receiver:

Total:


60.3 receptions (20.3%)
942 receiving yards (24.2%)
6.2 receiving TD's (20%)


1st team:


55.2 receptions (18.6%)
853 receiving yards (21.9%)
5.5 receiving TD's (17.8%)

Z Receiver:

Total:


63.7 receptions (21.4%)
947 receiving yards (24.3%)
6.2 receiving TD's (20%)

1st team:


48.5 receptions (16.3%)
709 receiving yards (18.2%)
4.3 receiving TD's (14.1%)

Slot Receiver:

Total:


73.7 receptions (21.4%)
1015 receiving yards (24.3%)
9.5 receiving TD's (20%)

1st team:


62.2 receptions (20.9%)
869 receiving yards (22.3%)
7.8 receiving TD's (25.4%)


It is a lot of numbers but if you look through it hard enough it says a lot. One thing unseen here, is the general make up of a JoMo receiving corp. This usually includes 3-4 prime time targets, and another 2-3 consistent and trusted targets. So that is 5-7 real targets in a given year. 2 of those 5-7 targets were a Tight End and a Running Back, this can be said in all 6 of the studied years. So that leaves 3-5 spots for actual receivers. To split the difference, I took the top 4 receivers (actual receivers, not including TE and/or RB) from each year and and averaged their stats to find this group's seasonal averages. I then compared these stats to the receiver only total stats (including receiver's stats who were outside of the top 4 each year). Once again, the percentages to the right of each stat are the percentage of position specific stats compared to the teams total for that specific stat. So essentially, we are just subtracting the TE and RB percentages in the below instance.

Total Receiver only stats, per season:


198 receptions (66.5%)
2904 receiving yards (74.6%)
22 touchowns (70.8%)

Top 4 Receiver only stats, per season:


184 receptions (61.9%)
2692 receiving yards (69.1%)
20 receiving TD's (65.4%)


As you can see, for the most part, only 4 actual receivers, as well as 1 TE and 1 RB are needed in a JoMo Offense. This is more evident when combining the stats for the top 4 receivers + 1st string RB + 1st string TE. Here are the cumulative stats for these 6 hypothetical players, and the percentage of those stats compared to the team total.


270 receptions (90.9%)
3563 receiving yards (91.5%)
27.7 receving TD's (90.1%)


Now the questions rise. Not everyone can split all of these stats, as the past shows, JoMo finds his 6 targets, 4 WR + 1 TE + 1 RB, and for the most part (90% of the time), he sticks to these guys. So does Kylin take over at RB, or does JoMo split RB duties for the first time? Who takes over at TE, this is the most 1 guy and 1 guy only position in JoMo's offense, and we have 3-4 guys that may be capable. Who are the 4-5 WR's? We have 10-12 guys that are viable candidates, but who out of this group claims one of the 4-5 spots?

[tenureplan]

Do the same analysis for just his PSU years. I doubt Fordham had much depth

[Todd4State]

I think we will see the same typical 5-7 guys but as far as the RB goes my guess is we will mostly rotate Hill and Aeris.

But the interesting thing is I wouldn't be surprised if we have the deepest offense that Joe has ever had since he became a head coach. So, we'll see.

My guess is he likes to keep the mostly same guys on the field most of the time so that he can run more complex plays.

[Turfdawg67]

This looks impressive, but all these stats hurt my feeble brain! Telll us more about that OM hotel... ***

[BuckyIsAB****]

I think we will see the same typical 5-7 guys but as far as the RB goes my guess is we will mostly rotate Hill and Aeris.

But the interesting thing is I wouldn't be surprised if we have the deepest offense that Joe has ever had since he became a head coach. So, we'll see.

My guess is he likes to keep the mostly same guys on the field most of the time so that he can run more complex plays.

I know for a fact we will have the best OL he has had as a HC and arguably the best QB/RB duo (trio in our case) he has had.

JoMo is a smart guy and has a proven track record of putting up points. Im not concerned about the offense. Shoop is my biggest concern

[Covercorner2]

I figured someone would find these numbers interesting. I was curious about how many guys usually make up a JoMo receiving corp (including TE and RB, maybe I should say receiving targets) and how the receptions/yards/touchdowns are distributed throughout. 2012-2017 covers his 4 years as HC at Fordham, as well as his two years at Penn State as an OC. We all know that JoMo likes to target his TE's and RB's, and this will show in the below research. However, the thing that may have surprised me the most, is how few players make up a typical JoMo receiving corp.

Here are JoMo's season averages over the studied 6 year span:


297 receptions
3893 receiving yards
31 receiving TD's

Now, we will look at how this breaks down for each position, and also what percentage of those stats came from the 1st team guy at that position. Remember, these numbers are a seasonal average. The percentages in the parenthesis to the right of each stat are the percentage of that specific team stat coming from that specific position, same is for the 1st team stats, but instead it gives the percentage from that specific player, rather than that specific position. It will make sense

Running Back:

Total:


45.8 receptions (15.4% of team total)
430 receiving yards (11%)
3.5 receving TD's (11.4%)


1st team:


36.8 receptions (12.4%)
355 receiving yards (9.1%)
2.8 receiving TD's (9.2%)


Tight End:

Total:


52.7 receptions (17.7%)
554 receiving yards (14.2%)
5.3 receiving TD's (17.3%)

1st team:


49.3 receptions (16.6%)
516 receiving yards (13.3%)
4.8 receiving TD's (15.7%)

X Receiver:

Total:


60.3 receptions (20.3%)
942 receiving yards (24.2%)
6.2 receiving TD's (20%)


1st team:


55.2 receptions (18.6%)
853 receiving yards (21.9%)
5.5 receiving TD's (17.8%)

Z Receiver:

Total:


63.7 receptions (21.4%)
947 receiving yards (24.3%)
6.2 receiving TD's (20%)

1st team:


48.5 receptions (16.3%)
709 receiving yards (18.2%)
4.3 receiving TD's (14.1%)

Slot Receiver:

Total:


73.7 receptions (21.4%)
1015 receiving yards (24.3%)
9.5 receiving TD's (20%)

1st team:


62.2 receptions (20.9%)
869 receiving yards (22.3%)
7.8 receiving TD's (25.4%)


It is a lot of numbers but if you look through it hard enough it says a lot. One thing unseen here, is the general make up of a JoMo receiving corp. This usually includes 3-4 prime time targets, and another 2-3 consistent and trusted targets. So that is 5-7 real targets in a given year. 2 of those 5-7 targets were a Tight End and a Running Back, this can be said in all 6 of the studied years. So that leaves 3-5 spots for actual receivers. To split the difference, I took the top 4 receivers (actual receivers, not including TE and/or RB) from each year and and averaged their stats to find this group's seasonal averages. I then compared these stats to the receiver only total stats (including receiver's stats who were outside of the top 4 each year). Once again, the percentages to the right of each stat are the percentage of position specific stats compared to the teams total for that specific stat. So essentially, we are just subtracting the TE and RB percentages in the below instance.

Total Receiver only stats, per season:


198 receptions (66.5%)
2904 receiving yards (74.6%)
22 touchowns (70.8%)

Top 4 Receiver only stats, per season:


184 receptions (61.9%)
2692 receiving yards (69.1%)
20 receiving TD's (65.4%)


As you can see, for the most part, only 4 actual receivers, as well as 1 TE and 1 RB are needed in a JoMo Offense. This is more evident when combining the stats for the top 4 receivers + 1st string RB + 1st string TE. Here are the cumulative stats for these 6 hypothetical players, and the percentage of those stats compared to the team total.


270 receptions (90.9%)
3563 receiving yards (91.5%)
27.7 receving TD's (90.1%)


Now the questions rise. Not everyone can split all of these stats, as the past shows, JoMo finds his 6 targets, 4 WR + 1 TE + 1 RB, and for the most part (90% of the time), he sticks to these guys. So does Kylin take over at RB, or does JoMo split RB duties for the first time? Who takes over at TE, this is the most 1 guy and 1 guy only position in JoMo's offense, and we have 3-4 guys that may be capable. Who are the 4-5 WR's? We have 10-12 guys that are viable candidates, but who out of this group claims one of the 4-5 spots?

What sticks out to me the most is the Slot. I'm no math whiz, but looks like that was the most productive spot, and just so happens to be where we actually have depth and proven guys in the receiving corp. (Mixon, Dear, Thomas)

I think Mixon is VERY underrated. No one talks about him, but he is good and should finally be healthy.

[gravedigger]

Shoop is my biggest concern

He really shouldnt be. This season will be about effort. Defensive scheme wont play much of a part imo. Players have said that very thing.

Now, when we have to rebuild the defense in the coming years and it's all about how he motivates the incoming talent, he should be given a short rope. We cannot afford to have what happened at UT. MSU lives and dies by how well it's defense performs.

[Johnson85]

Now the questions rise. Not everyone can split all of these stats, as the past shows, JoMo finds his 6 targets, 4 WR + 1 TE + 1 RB, and for the most part (90% of the time), he sticks to these guys. So does Kylin take over at RB, or does JoMo split RB duties for the first time? Who takes over at TE, this is the most 1 guy and 1 guy only position in JoMo's offense, and we have 3-4 guys that may be capable. Who are the 4-5 WR's? We have 10-12 guys that are viable candidates, but who out of this group claims one of the 4-5 spots?

I am guessing most of that is just ddriven by personnel and the drop off between 1st team to 2nd team that he typically had. At PSU, he had a top 3 draft pick at RB, so I'm guessing there was quite a bit of daylight between #1 and #2. Not sure about TE, but it wouldn't surprise me if he usually only had one TE that was a good blocker and receiving threat.

The one thing I would expect to be consistent is that since his offense requires throwing the deep ball to keep defenses honest, and it doesn't seem like we are going to be in danger of having a lot of WR that are deep threats this year, any WR that can prove a credible deep threat if they get man to man coverage is going to get a disproportionate number of targets b/c we're probably not going to have more than one WR that can do that, and we may not even have one that can do it.

[FordhamRams]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wm7Re_wsyGs

you guys may have seen this already but if not, it's great imo. It shows you how one simple play is designed to win against any D as long as the QB and receivers are smart enough to recognize the D and therefore make the right call. It also explains why things may be slower at the beginning of the season as the QB or receiver may break off the route in the wrong way if they mis-read the D and you'll see an errant ball go flying (hopefully to the ground). Later in the season, they all get on the same page (or those that don't make good reads get benched) and everything starts clicking.

Long-short, his O is designed to take whatever the D gives you and you'll see a game here where the X has a huge game, followed by the slot or TE. Overall, from what I've seen, the slot is critical and at Fordham and PSU it was a very high producing spot in addition to the TE. PSU's TE was drafted in the 2nd Rd this year by the Dolphins. Before Joe got here, he had zero confidence and every PSU fan would say that he couldn't catch the ball. Both Fordham TE's spent time at NFL camps (a relative rarity for a Fordham player), so expect very good production out of your TE. Also expect that there could be players who aren't on your radar who are going to be very good at recognizing opposing D's on the fly and they're likely to get the playing time.

[CadaverDawg]

What sticks out to me the most is the Slot. I'm no math whiz, but looks like that was the most productive spot, and just so happens to be where we actually have depth and proven guys in the receiving corp. (Mixon, Dear, Thomas)

I think Mixon is VERY underrated. No one talks about him, but he is good and should finally be healthy.

This^

If Mixon stays healthy he has the skills to breakout in a major way this season in this offense.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

What sticks out to me the most is the Slot. I'm no math whiz, but looks like that was the most productive spot, and just so happens to be where we actually have depth and proven guys in the receiving corp. (Mixon, Dear, Thomas)

I think Mixon is VERY underrated. No one talks about him, but he is good and should finally be healthy.

Agreed. If he stays healthy, he could be a breakout player. For some reason, I always liked him in the slot more than Thomas or Dear.