Braves

[msstate7]

I think the dodgers are making a very risky move tonight. Kershaw on 3-days rest could be beaten by the braves. I don't think the braves could beat him on 5. Kershaw threw 124 pitches Thursday night. I'm not saying the braves will win, but this gives them a chance IMO

[msstate7]

Ken Rosenthal ?@Ken_Rosenthal

Forgive me @MrBrianKenny: Tweeps want pitcher and team record for post-season starters on 3 days rest since ?95. Pitcher: 20-31, team 29-48.

[CadaverDawg]

Ken Rosenthal ?@Ken_Rosenthal

Forgive me @MrBrianKenny: Tweeps want pitcher and team record for post-season starters on 3 days rest since ?95. Pitcher: 20-31, team 29-48.

Wow. Hopefully this move backfires. It would do a lot for my MLB watching if the braves would make a deep run.

[msstate7]

Wow. Hopefully this move backfires. It would do a lot for my MLB watching if the braves would make a deep run.

Yeah I'll be done with mlb till next season if the braves are eliminated. Can't get excited about it when braves aren't involved.

[Todd4State]

I agree it's a risky move. I would only make that move if absolutely necessary. I'd rather have a rested ace on the road over a tired ace at home.

[engie]

Pretty risky.

But now that you did this, do you also bring him back for a potential game 7? I almost think you have to...

Bottom line is they are trying to close the series in LA and prevent it from coming back to Atlanta...

[messageboardsuperhero]

Pretty risky.

But now that you did this, do you also bring him back for a potential game 7? I almost think you have to...

Bottom line is they are trying to close the series in LA and prevent it from coming back to Atlanta...

There would be no game 7. The division series' are best of 5.

I think this decision by Mattingly is kind of stupid. Kershaw would probably be much better in a game 5 in Atlanta than a game 4 in LA.

[bobcat91]

Kershaw is the best in the game and there isn't even a conversation about it. He gets it done tonight.

[msstate7]

Kershaw is the best in the game and there isn't even a conversation about it. He gets it done tonight.
He is the best. I have no doubt he would get it done Wednesday, but I wouldn't call tonight a done deal. Kershaw has never pitched on 3-days rest, so he may not be the same pitcher.

[bobcat91]

Mattingly has made some head scratching decisions thisyear and is not a shoe in to be back. His record this year outside the incredible 50 game run was very average. I realize they had a to of injuries but still. I'm a Dodger fan and if necessary e come back with Greinke at full rest.

[BoomBoom]

I think the dodgers are making a very risky move tonight. Kershaw on 3-days rest could be beaten by the braves. I don't think the braves could beat him on 5. Kershaw threw 124 pitches Thursday night. I'm not saying the braves will win, but this gives them a chance IMO

completely agree. on top of that, if you hold Kershaw and LA wins anyway, then they would have Kershaw to start Game 1 of the NLCS. though i guess with all the off days he'd be at full rest for Game 2. anyway, if this was a possibility, why keep him in the game in Game 1 up to 124 pitches? Now isn't exactly the time to be winging it.

[msstate7]

If I was the braves manager, I would start gattis at catcher tonight. Gotta have gattis' bat, but he's terrible in lf. McCann has been ice cold and he's lefty vs kershaw. I'd start reed Johnson as 3rd outfielder. Reed kills lefties and has a decent glove

[Dawg61]

Mattingly has made some head scratching decisions thisyear and is not a shoe in to be back. His record this year outside the incredible 50 game run was very average. I realize they had a to of injuries but still. I'm a Dodger fan and if necessary e come back with Greinke at full rest.

This move is rolling the dice for sure but Ricky Nolasco sucks and if the Braves are going to win the series they are going to have to beat both Kershaw and Grienke not Nolasco and Kershaw. Kershaw at home to win the series gives the Dodgers the best chance to never go back to Atlanta. Kershaw at home on 3 days rest is much better than Nolasco.

[Will James]

Let's all laugh at Fredi for that stupid stupid stupid bunt with Upton.

Ha ha ha

[msstate7]

Fredi didnt call that. Jup was incredibly stupid there. Kershaw is death on lefties so your righties have to have good at bats

[Will James]

Fredi didnt call that. Jup was incredibly stupid there. Kershaw is death on lefties so your righties have to have good at bats

Upton should be banned from ever squaring around.. Ever

[Will James]

Carl on fire.

Which flavor jam should I use this year on the Braves, cause they are toast.

[msstate7]

Carl on fire.

Which flavor jam should I use this year on the Braves, cause they are toast.

Looking that way. Hoping kershaw tires second time thru lineup. Gotta have pitcher warming up to start 2nd inning. I'd pull em if 2 reach

[Will James]

Baseball domes should be banned.

If they have an outdoor stadium in Cleveland, Chicago, Boston, Minnesota, Detroit.... They should have one in ****ing Tampa. At least a retractable roof. It's the last remaining indoor only stadium in baseball.

[bully99]

Kershaw wears #22 in honor of Will Clark. The Thrill was his favorite player growing up in Texas.

[CadaverDawg]

Score? Inning?

[messageboardsuperhero]

Baseball domes should be banned.

If they have an outdoor stadium in Cleveland, Chicago, Boston, Minnesota, Detroit.... They should have one in ****ing Tampa. At least a retractable roof. It's the last remaining indoor only stadium in baseball.

Tropicana is the biggest piece of shit in MLB.

[Dawg61]

I spent a summer in that area. If they have no roof they'd have 50 rain delays a year. How feasible is it to be opening and closing a roof sometimes multiple times a day? The Tampa dome is an embarrassment though and so is the Blue Jays.

[Todd4State]

Let's all laugh at Fredi for that stupid stupid stupid bunt with Upton.

Ha ha ha

I'm pretty sure Upton did that on his own.

[Todd4State]

Tropicana is the biggest piece of shit in MLB.

A few years ago, I saw some renderings for a new baseball stadium in Tampa. It looked really cool.

[Todd4State]

I spent a summer in that area. If they have no roof they'd have 50 rain delays a year. How feasible is it to be opening and closing a roof sometimes multiple times a day? The Tampa dome is an embarrassment though and so is the Blue Jays.

I think most of the retractable roofs can close under an hour. They could leave it closed during the day and open it for the game if the weather is OK.

[msstate7]

Score? Inning?

1-0 dodgers bottom 3rd

[bobcat91]

I spent a summer in that area. If they have no roof they'd have 50 rain delays a year. How feasible is it to be opening and closing a roof sometimes multiple times a day? The Tampa dome is an embarrassment though and so is the Blue Jays.

I've watched a game in the sky dome and really enjoyed it. Great sight lines. If they didn't have a dome then they ould lose 30-40 games a year due to weather. Domes suck but in some locales are necessary.

[msstate7]

1-0 dodgers bottom 3rd

2-0 dodgers. Carl Crawford with 2 solo hr's. Wtf

[Will James]

Oh yeah Rays! Walkoff!

Rays v A's please

OAKtober

[FFF]

2-0 dodgers. Carl Crawford with 2 solo hr's. Wtf

Braves blow an October series once again.

[messageboardsuperhero]

Oh yeah Rays! Walkoff!

Rays v A's please

OAKtober

I'd love that.

[msstate7]

2-2 braves gifted a couple of runs. Bottom 4th

[bobcat91]

2-2 braves gifted a couple of runs. Bottom 4th

Sloppy play and the Braves got pretty decent swings on him.

[msstate7]

Sloppy play and the Braves got pretty decent swings on him.

Very sloppy. I'll take it

[smootness]

I think most of the retractable roofs can close under an hour. They could leave it closed during the day and open it for the game if the weather is OK.

They would have to keep the turf, then.

[Todd4State]

They would have to keep the turf, then.

Arizona has grass and they keep their dome closed most of the time.

[CadaverDawg]

We'll, this is all the braves could hope for....a tie game when Kershaw leaves the game. If they don't win it now, they don't deserve it.

[CadaverDawg]

Dem Braves. 3-2

[Dawg61]

Wow Braves lead 3-2!

[CadaverDawg]

Wow Braves lead 3-2!

Yep, you fools got me sucked in now

[Quaoarsking]

Of course the Braves were going to win tonight over Kershaw. Just sets up a bigger disappointment for Wednesday.

[Will James]

Of course the Braves were going to win tonight over Kershaw. Just sets up a bigger disappointment for Wednesday.

Sure feels like that one will be over early. Like a Dodger 5 run 1st

[K9 Avenger]

Of course the Braves were going to win tonight over Kershaw. Just sets up a bigger disappointment for Wednesday.

I laughed... you definitely sound like a veteran Braves fan.

[starkvegasdawg]

5:30am comes early but I just flipped over after watching the falcons once again not close a win out to see the braves ahead late. Now I have to stay up and watch.

[smootness]

Arizona has grass and they keep their dome closed most of the time.

Not true. They do keep it closed a few hours before game time to keep the temp down, but the rest of the time it is left open as much as possible.

[Dawg61]

Man this game is close!

[Will James]

HombreOsoPuig

[CadaverDawg]

Am I the only one that thinks they should go ahead and bring in the closer in this spot?

You can't give up a double in that situation. That one could end up costing them the series.

[Will James]

Stupid Mattingly gonna stupid. Dumb bunt calls there.

[Will James]

Am I the only one that thinks they should go ahead and bring in the closer in this spot?

You can't give up a double in that situation. That one could end up costing them the series.

These aren't the most advanced managers we are dealing with.

[CadaverDawg]

Like I said, shoulda brought in kimbrel, now you going home for the rest of the season bravos. Dumb move

[Will James]

And there you go two birds with one stone. Bad bunts leads to HR and bad bullpen management leads to HR. both deserved to fail.

[Will James]

Like I said, shoulda brought in kimbrel, now you going home for the rest of the season bravos. Dumb move

All because we reward the wrong things. Like a made up stat called "save"

[starkvegasdawg]

Like I said, shoulda brought in kimbrel, now you going home for the rest of the season bravos. Dumb move

The three definites:
Death
Taxes
Braves choke in the post season

[CadaverDawg]

All because we reward the wrong things. Like a made up stat called "save"

Yep, you're right about that. John Cohen woulda had Holder in in the 7th I believe, ha

[BoomBoom]

The three definites:
Death
Taxes
Braves choke in the post season

correct that to: bullpen chokes with Kimbrel on the bench. and they'll never change.

[CadaverDawg]

By the way, Will, Dawg61, msstate7, etc...... This probably finished me off for paying attention to baseball the rest of this postseason and next season as well. I finally get sucked in only to be disappointed. I already have one MSU bulldogs to pull for and be crushed by, I don't need another.

[CadaverDawg]

Nice arm tat Schaeffer.*

[Will James]

By the way, Will, Dawg61, msstate7, etc...... This probably finished me off for paying attention to baseball the rest of this postseason and next season as well. I finally get sucked in only to be disappointed. I already have one MSU bulldogs to pull for and be crushed by, I don't need another.

Jump on the A's train.

No other professional postseason comes close to baseball. None. Where else is there meaningful quadruple headers all day long. It's March Madness, except baseball is many times better than hoops

[CadaverDawg]

Jump on the A's train.

No other professional postseason comes close to baseball. None. Where else is there meaningful quadruple headers all day long. It's March Madness, except baseball is many times better than hoops

I disagree about the playoffs being that great. But I will say that I pull for the A's out of the American League. I will give them a shot to win me back over the next few days/weeks

[msstate7]

Fredi Gonzalez cost the braves a chance to win the series. Kimbrel never got to throw a pitch. I cannot stand fredi. Once puig got on you have to go kimbrel

[smootness]

Fredi Gonzalez cost the braves a chance to win the series. Kimbrel never got to throw a pitch. I cannot stand fredi. Once puig got on you have to go kimbrel

Yup. Inexcusable.

[FFF]

By the way, Will, Dawg61, msstate7, etc...... This probably finished me off for paying attention to baseball the rest of this postseason and next season as well. I finally get sucked in only to be disappointed. I already have one MSU bulldogs to pull for and be crushed by, I don't need another.

Yup. But hey, moral victory, right? Braves won the division? At least we have the Upton Brot... o wait...

Go cards. I'm done with Atlanta. I'm tired of being let down year after year after year. The most unclutch team in baseball. Play a game in September or October and my high school baseball team could beat them.

[CadaverDawg]

Fredi Gonzalez cost the braves a chance to win the series. Kimbrel never got to throw a pitch. I cannot stand fredi. Once puig got on you have to go kimbrel

No doubt.

Now change that damn picture of yours To an Oakland A or something so we can forget about it.*

[CadaverDawg]

Yup. But hey, moral victory, right? Braves won the division? At least we have the Upton Brot... o wait...

Go cards. I'm done with Atlanta. I'm tired of being let down year after year after year. The most unclutch team in baseball. Play a game in September or October and my high school baseball team could beat them.

Thank God for the Saints. Because being a State fan and a braves fan is like lining up for a daily nut kicking.

[msstate7]

No doubt.

Now change that damn picture of yours To an Oakland A or something so we can forget about it.*

Not happening buddy. I'm pissed now, but I'm cursed with a love for the braves and bulldogs. I'm a born loser...

[CadaverDawg]

Not happening buddy. I'm pissed now, but I'm cursed with a love for the braves and bulldogs. I'm a born loser...

Me too man, me too.

[CadaverDawg]

If the Intense Bastard is a braves fan.....some shit just got broken in Starkville.

I bet Cohen had holder take the mound in the 8th at Dudy tonight just despite Fredi's dumb ass

[Todd4State]

Not true. They do keep it closed a few hours before game time to keep the temp down, but the rest of the time it is left open as much as possible.

Wrong. They only leave it open as much as possible ON GAME DAYS- and that's only if there's sufficient sunlight. The rest of the time it's closed and they use solar panels for the grass.

Anyway- if they can grow grass in Pheonix, Arizona they can have grass in Tampa.

[engie]

Jump on the A's train.

Already there. Got a personal reason to pull for them -- and I want to see a proper ending eventually given to Moneyball.

[Todd4State]

Fredi Gonzalez cost the braves a chance to win the series. Kimbrel never got to throw a pitch. I cannot stand fredi. Once puig got on you have to go kimbrel

For not bringing his closer in the start of the 8th inning? That's pretty risky if you ask me. Most closers are used to throwing 25-30 pitches max. They're max effort guys usually- and they get burned out pretty quickly. Not to mention the fact that relief pitchers perform better when they know what situation they are going to come in. It helps with their bullpen preparation and routine- it helps them to know when to warm up so that they can be ready and perform at an optimal effort.

Fredi made the right move there- but his set-up guy didn't execute. He got beat by possibly the most talented guy in baseball rifling a double opposite field and then a hanging breaking ball. If you throw a breaking ball there- you CAN NOT leave it up in the zone. If you miss, you have to miss down. It happens. It ain't easy.

[msstate7]

CK wanted the ball. He told fredi he could go 2 before the inning started. I didnt mind carpenter starting the 8th, but it was CK time when puig got on. Mac calling for 2 straight breaking balls was another shining example of how much McCann killed the braves in this series. Carpenter got lit up in the 8th in game 2 and again in game 4. Both appearance he gave up multiple run hr's.

[smootness]

they use solar panels for the grass.

Uh......huh?

I don't know what they do in the offseason, but the purpose of keeping the roof open is to help the grass grow.

Phoenix has it done properly, though; they just roll the playing surface in and out of the stadium to get sunlight and can do whatever they want with the roof.
I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about with the solar panels.

[msstate7]

I've been a Brian McCann fan for a long time, but I'm ready to see him go now. Gattis is gonna be one of the best hitters in mlb, but he can't play lf. Gattis is already a better defensive catcher than McCann. The braves have laird (veteran catcher) to tutor gattis about calling games. McCann is about to seriously decline and I don't wanna tie ourselves up in another bad contract.

[smootness]

Kimbrel had pitched 1.1 innings in 1 game in the last 10 days, and in that one game, he was throwing 101 and his slider was hitting 89, neither of which ever happens during the year. He had plenty of gas then.

Worst-case scenario, if Kimbrel starts to fade, you can make a switch then in the 9th against the bottom of their order. But more than likely, unless he struggled, he would have been fine.

It makes no sense to say that you were planning on using your closer to go 4 outs but never thought about having him go 6. Rivera did it all the time in the postseason.

Kimbrel's never pitched 2 full innings before because he's never been asked to; if you continue to never ask him to do it, then he won't ever do it, and that reason will continue to be used as a reason why he can't.

It's a self-fulfilling prophecy, and it's insane.

I agree with msstate7. I said at the beginning of the inning, put Carpenter in but go to Kimbrel at the first sign of trouble. We didn't, and it killed us. There is no excuse for Kimbrel not pitching in that game. I would have even thought about it the inning prior. You have to use your best pitcher in the highest-leverage situations. Why leave him to pitch against the bottom of their order and have Carpenter try to avoid giving up a run with a runner on 2nd? Because you've designated Kimbrel your 'closer', therefore can't bring him in until a certain inning at a certain given time?

That's dumb, and it is getting managers beaten on a regular basis. In the regular season, fine; but when each game is crucial, you have to do whatever it takes and go with your best options.

[Todd4State]

Kimbrel had pitched 1.1 innings in 1 game in the last 10 days, and in that one game, he was throwing 101 and his slider was hitting 89, neither of which ever happens during the year. He had plenty of gas then.

Worst-case scenario, if Kimbrel starts to fade, you can make a switch then in the 9th against the bottom of their order. But more than likely, unless he struggled, he would have been fine.

It makes no sense to say that you were planning on using your closer to go 4 outs but never thought about having him go 6. Rivera did it all the time in the postseason.

Kimbrel's never pitched 2 full innings before because he's never been asked to; if you continue to never ask him to do it, then he won't ever do it, and that reason will continue to be used as a reason why he can't.

It's a self-fulfilling prophecy, and it's insane.

I agree with msstate7. I said at the beginning of the inning, put Carpenter in but go to Kimbrel at the first sign of trouble. We didn't, and it killed us. There is no excuse for Kimbrel not pitching in that game. I would have even thought about it the inning prior. You have to use your best pitcher in the highest-leverage situations. Why leave him to pitch against the bottom of their order and have Carpenter try to avoid giving up a run with a runner on 2nd? Because you've designated Kimbrel your 'closer', therefore can't bring him in until a certain inning at a certain given time?

That's dumb, and it is getting managers beaten on a regular basis. In the regular season, fine; but when each game is crucial, you have to do whatever it takes and go with your best options.

That's hindsight. Carpenter is a darn good pitcher who had a bad night- again, it happens. Even to Mariano Rivera- remember him getting beat by Luis Gonzalez in the playoffs? Four outs vs. six- that could be a difference of 10-20 pitches. If Kimbrel had gotten worn out- then who do you turn to? And then if Kimbrel throws 50-60 pitches you have to worry about how he might bounce back on Weds. Then you might have to have someone who has not closed out games very often likely in a jam-I'm assuming a tired Kimbrel would mean baserunners- in the biggest game of the year. The other thing you have to think about too- Puig doubles- well, Fredi knew that Uribe was probably going to bunt. Which he did- even though he screwed it up. So, all he had to do was basically get Uribe to bunt for an out- or get him 0-2 which is in his favor. I'm pretty sure he would have brought in Kimbrel with one out and a runner on third.

Rivera is a special pitcher- the best closer of all time. Some closers can go two innings- but not very many. Rivera could- but he is a special player. And he mainly would go multiple innings when he was the set-up guy to John Wetteland. When he was the closer, he very rarely pitched two innings. You could bring in Kimbrel- but again, it's risky. And if it doesn't work- I guarantee you it would be get questioned a WHOLE lot more than leaving Carpenter in. Especially since Carpenter had an ERA of 1.80 something. There's really no reason to NOT trust Carpenter there.

Relief pitchers are strange animals- and they operate a LOT better when they are put into familiar situations. It's a personality thing as much as anything. If you are ever around any of them- you would understand. They're almost like the Hanson brothers on Slapshot.

[Will James]

1. Gattis won't be one of the leagues best hitters

2. He's nowhere near Mac on defensive ability.

3. Kimbrel absolutely starts the inning vs Puig. He especially needs to come in after the double.

[camsu]

Cadaverdawg welcome to the A's wagon. Think about this only 1 of starting pitchers has had 2 full seasons in the majors. We are team of players no one wanted. Go A's.

[smootness]

It isn't hindsight. I said when the inning started that once a baserunner was on, Kimbrel had to be brought in. It's common sense.

Carpenter was a good pitcher all year, but he isn't Kimbrel, he had been killed earlier in the series, and he had just given up a double.

I don't care who would second-guess Fredi had Kimbrel come in and lost it. It would have been the right move. If you lose with your best pitcher on the mound, touche. If you lose and your best pitcher never gets in, well, that's on the manager.

As far as Fredi bringing in Kimbrel after the bunt, I guarantee he wouldn't have. It is Fredi Gonzalez; he said himself after the game that he had it set up to bring in Kimbrel for 4 outs...not 5, and not 6. That is asinine. It makes no sense at all; no one will ever be able to explain to me why a pitcher can easily go 4 outs but can't go 6.

Wednesday will take care of itself. You have to get there first. Obviously you can't go nuts, but 2 innings with a rest day afterward would still allow Kimbrel to pitch game 5.

And if Kimbrel gets worn out, you figure that out when the time comes. Bring in Minor for a couple of outs if you need it. But that option is far better than Kimbrel not even getting in the game because you blew it too quickly. There is just no point in saving him for the bottom of the order and just hoping and praying Carpenter can get you there. You put Kimbrel in, allow him to try to put out the fire, and let him pitch until he's no longer effective.

There's this thought around baseball that pitchers are like machines and once they have the slightest amount more asked of them than they have previously, they will explode. It's crazy. And again, it isn't hindsight. Most of the fanbase wanted Kimbrel in there, because it's obvious.

[msstate7]

1. Gattis won't be one of the leagues best hitters

2. He's nowhere near Mac on defensive ability.

3. Kimbrel absolutely starts the inning vs Puig. He especially needs to come in after the double.

Maybe gattis won't be one of the best hitters in the league, but he will be better than McCann. He was better than McCann this year.

McCann -- 356 ab's 20 hr's 56 rbi's
Gattis -- 354 ab's 21 hr's 65 rbi's

This was gattis' first year. Oh and gattis is pretty dang good behind the plate defensively. Gattis will hit 30 hr's 90+ rbi's next season if he doesn't get hurt. At this point of their careers, gattis is superior to McCann

[TheRef]

Maybe gattis won't be one of the best hitters in the league, but he will be better than McCann. He was better than McCann this year.

McCann -- 356 ab's 20 hr's 56 rbi's
Gattis -- 354 ab's 21 hr's 65 rbi's

This was gattis' first year. Oh and gattis is pretty dang good behind the plate defensively. Gattis will hit 30 hr's 90+ rbi's next season if he doesn't get hurt. At this point of their careers, gattis is superior to McCann

IF we keep him after this offseason. I see many a team trying to get him from the Braves.

[smootness]

Gattis wasn't a better hitter than McCann. His OPS was 26 points lower; his OBP was below .300.

I really like Gattis' potential if he can develop a little more plate discipline and figure out breaking balls better, and I don't think there's any way we can re-sign McCann, but it will hurt us offensively next year, more than likely.

[msstate7]

IF we keep him after this offseason. I see many a team trying to get him from the Braves.

McCann will be way too expensive and for too many years. If the braves tie up money in McCann instead of going after David price I'll be sick. Then we'll have bj, uggla, and McCann getting most our money and outs

[TheRef]

McCann will be way too expensive and for too many years. If the braves tie up money in McCann instead of going after David price I'll be sick. Then we'll have bj, uggla, and McCann getting most our money and outs

Can we call a Mulligan on BJ's contract? I think every MLB team should be entitled to 1 mulligan every year on contracts.

[msstate7]

Another thing about McCann... The at bat vs Jensen tells the tale. McCann used to could hit anyone's fastball, but he can't catch up now. When youre a fastball hitter and can't hit a good fastball, you're almost done

[dawgs]

well at least the braves didn't start a brawl over uribe's HR trot

[dawgs]

Gattis is gonna be one of the best hitters in mlb

wut? you mean a .260 hitter with 30 HR power is one of the best hitters in the game now?

[msstate7]

wut? you mean a .260 hitter with 30 HR power is one of the best hitters in the game now?

When he does it in his 2nd year, he's well on his way. Remember gattis is just getting back in baseball after a long time away. He has a quick stroke with enormous power. As he gets more selective at the plate, he's gonna smash

[dawgs]

fwiw, anyone looking for a new team to pull for, i'm pulling for the pirates. their home crowds have been some of the best atmospheres i've ever seen in baseball. and they also built the team very much in the moneyball mold.

[HereComesTheSpiral]

Can we call a Mulligan on BJ's contract? I think every MLB team should be entitled to 1 mulligan every year on contracts.

The LA Angels approve of this idea

[dawgs]

i'd be shocked if he ever hits above .280 for a full season without a ridiculous amount of BABIP luck. he's a nice hitting C who will hit in the .260 range with good power. there will be some improvement in pitch selection, but pitchers will also adapt to his weaknesses. at the end of the day, i think it's mostly a wash and he is what he is with some BB rate improvement, but nothing drastic.

[biscuit]

I don't like the Braves, but I have a great disdain for the Dodgers.....I hope the Cards pull it out, but if not I'll pull for the Pirates. But after saying that, GO CARDS!!!!

[msstate7]

Gattis doesn't get the credit he deserves. Here's puig's stats vs gattis':

Puig -- 382 ab's 19 hr's 42 rbi's .319 avg

Gattis -- 354 ab's 21 hr's 65 rbi's
.243 avg

Puig is definitely a better hitter as far as average, but gattis produces with his hits more. In 18 less at bats, gattis drove in 23 more rbi's.

[msstate7]

Gattis wasn't a better hitter than McCann. His OPS was 26 points lower; his OBP was below .300.

I really like Gattis' potential if he can develop a little more plate discipline and figure out breaking balls better, and I don't think there's any way we can re-sign McCann, but it will hurt us offensively next year, more than likely.

Sort of like McCann hurt us this year? Tell me what mccann's ops was when it mattered. He followed a terrible September with an 0 for October. McCann has lost bat speed and his production will be down again next season. Like I said before McCann is a fastball hitter that can't hit a good fastball anymore. He used to pull even the best fastballs. Now if he gets around a hit off a good fastball it's to the opposite field. The writing is on the wall

[smootness]

I said that I don't think there's any way we can or will re-sign McCann, and I don't want us to.

But that doesn't mean Gattis was a better hitter this year; he wasn't.

You have to stop relying on RBIs to inform your opinion of hitters. Puig was a far better hitter this year than Gattis.

And I love Gattis' potential. I don't know if his plate discipline will ever progress to the point where he realizes all that potential, but there is no doubt that he makes a lot of very hard contact, and I want him to be a part of the Braves for a long time.

And I think Puig is due for regression next year as teams figure him out; I think they will exploit the fact that he is a free-swinger, and he will definitely strike out a bunch. But Gattis just wasn't as good as Puig this year, not even close.

[Todd4State]

It isn't hindsight. I said when the inning started that once a baserunner was on, Kimbrel had to be brought in. It's common sense.

Carpenter was a good pitcher all year, but he isn't Kimbrel, he had been killed earlier in the series, and he had just given up a double.

I don't care who would second-guess Fredi had Kimbrel come in and lost it. It would have been the right move. If you lose with your best pitcher on the mound, touche. If you lose and your best pitcher never gets in, well, that's on the manager.

As far as Fredi bringing in Kimbrel after the bunt, I guarantee he wouldn't have. It is Fredi Gonzalez; he said himself after the game that he had it set up to bring in Kimbrel for 4 outs...not 5, and not 6. That is asinine. It makes no sense at all; no one will ever be able to explain to me why a pitcher can easily go 4 outs but can't go 6.

Wednesday will take care of itself. You have to get there first. Obviously you can't go nuts, but 2 innings with a rest day afterward would still allow Kimbrel to pitch game 5.

And if Kimbrel gets worn out, you figure that out when the time comes. Bring in Minor for a couple of outs if you need it. But that option is far better than Kimbrel not even getting in the game because you blew it too quickly. There is just no point in saving him for the bottom of the order and just hoping and praying Carpenter can get you there. You put Kimbrel in, allow him to try to put out the fire, and let him pitch until he's no longer effective.

There's this thought around baseball that pitchers are like machines and once they have the slightest amount more asked of them than they have previously, they will explode. It's crazy. And again, it isn't hindsight. Most of the fanbase wanted Kimbrel in there, because it's obvious.

Fredi probably knows what Kimbrel can handle since he coaches him. More than likely they had him go two innings in spring training during an outing or two to see what would happen. They have data on his effectiveness after a certain amount of pitches. ALL of that plays into a decision. There's not a "thought around baseball that pitchers are machines"- there's a thought around baseball that pitchers are human beings and that preventing arm injuries leads to maximum production. I think there may be a thought amongst some fans that you can handle a pitching staff like you do on xbox or playstation. You simply can not.

Back in the 70's and 80's managers used to handle bullpens like you are talking about. They stopped because pitchers were breaking down left and they weren't as effective. My uncle was a closer- and it was not uncommon for him to pitch 2-3 innings at a time. He got burned up in four seasons- and in the midst of his four best seasons he had an arm surgery thrown in there for good measure.

[Todd4State]

well at least the braves didn't start a brawl over uribe's HR trot

I laughed. I thought it was a possibility the way that Uribe threw the bat down.

[Dawg61]

Gattis doesn't get the credit he deserves. Here's puig's stats vs gattis':

Puig -- 382 ab's 19 hr's 42 rbi's .319 avg

Gattis -- 354 ab's 21 hr's 65 rbi's
.243 avg

Puig is definitely a better hitter as far as average, but gattis produces with his hits more. In 18 less at bats, gattis drove in 23 more rbi's.

For most of the year Puig batted top 3 in the order including leadoff while Gattis was in the more RBI potential spots in the order. Puig scored more runs and stole more bases. Puig's speed, average and defense combined with his power make him the far more superior player over Gattis. Gattis is a great story but he has no business being compared with Puig. Puig might be better than Bryce Harper.

[smootness]

Pitchers are developing injuries at least as much as they ever have before. Pitchers are now routinely having at least one TJ surgery in their career, sometimes before they're even drafted, and in the past, that literally ended someone's career.

Meanwhile, Nolan Ryan and the Rangers are having their pitchers throw harder and more often, and they seem to be among the best at avoiding injuries recently.

But you're kidding yourself if you think Fredi Gonzalez cares about numbers. He said a couple years ago that he felt like Schafer was getting on base more and was better than both Heyward and McLouth, despite his OBP and all his other numbers being lower than the other two. That was his defense for playing Schafer over them.

He manages on feel, and he is very old-school in that he doesn't do anything that is outside convention. Runner on first, time to bunt him over. Closer hasn't ever gotten 6 outs before, can't do it; must have him pitch the 9th because he's the 'closer' and he's trying to get a 'save'.

If he is actually trying to analyze spring training numbers as a way to make decisions in the postseason, that would exhibit A as to why he is making poor decisions.

Fredi doesn't know what Kimbrel can handle because he's never let him try, even in the biggest game we played all year, when we absolutely had to stop a run from scoring. Again, pitch him in the 8th and find somebody else later if you need them. There's nothing that says once your closer enters, he will remain in the game for the remainder no matter what happens. We needed him right then, and he wasn't used. That's inexplicable.

I'll put it to you this way, which do you think had a better chance of ending the game with a W:
a) Carpenter pitches the rest of the 8th with a runner on 2nd (that he allowed a 2B to) and no outs, with Kimbrel pitching the 9th, OR
b) Kimbrel pitches the rest of the 8th with a runner on 2nd and no outs, then returns for the 9th.

To me, it isn't even a question. It's Kimbrel every time. In the regular season, you may keep Carpenter in because even if you lose, it's one game and you can't just throw Kimbrel constantly in every game.
In an elimination game, you pull the trigger. That is the primary difference between the Braves and organizations like the Cardinals. They know the playoffs are different, we don't seem to get that.

[RougeDawg]

If I was the braves manager, I would start gattis at catcher tonight. Gotta have gattis' bat, but he's terrible in lf. McCann has been ice cold and he's lefty vs kershaw. I'd start reed Johnson as 3rd outfielder. Reed kills lefties and has a decent glove

Maybe McCann would be hitting a little better if he put as much effort into it as he does talkin shit and going after opposing hitters after they pimp yard work. He's a pansy and it's been showing as of late. Glad to see the braves sent packin.

[dawgs]

Gattis doesn't get the credit he deserves. Here's puig's stats vs gattis':

Puig -- 382 ab's 19 hr's 42 rbi's .319 avg

Gattis -- 354 ab's 21 hr's 65 rbi's
.243 avg

Puig is definitely a better hitter as far as average, but gattis produces with his hits more. In 18 less at bats, gattis drove in 23 more rbi's.

if you knew anything about baseball, you'd know that RBIs are dependent on lineup spot and the performance of the guys surrounding you in the lineup. puig batted 1st or 2nd in a NL lineup most of the season. the pitcher isn't exactly going to give him many RBI opportunities. gattis batted 4th or 5th most of the season. of course he's gonna have more RBIs simply because he had way more opportunities.

the same argument would apply when trying to argue that puig has 66 Rs while gattis only has 44 Rs, just in reverse.

[dawgs]

Puig might be better than Bryce Harper.


puig makes far too many mental mistakes right now and has about 1/10th of the plate discipline of harper. harper was on his way to having a monster year before he hurt his knee at the end of april and it lingered all season. hopefully next year he doesn't unnecessarily run into walls chasing fly balls and has his big breakout.

puig could be a vlad guerrero type, but he does need to prove for more than 2/3 of a season that his lack of BBs won't have a larger effect on his game.

[Todd4State]

Pitchers are developing injuries at least as much as they ever have before. Pitchers are now routinely having at least one TJ surgery in their career, sometimes before they're even drafted, and in the past, that literally ended someone's career.

Meanwhile, Nolan Ryan and the Rangers are having their pitchers throw harder and more often, and they seem to be among the best at avoiding injuries recently.

But you're kidding yourself if you think Fredi Gonzalez cares about numbers. He said a couple years ago that he felt like Schafer was getting on base more and was better than both Heyward and McLouth, despite his OBP and all his other numbers being lower than the other two. That was his defense for playing Schafer over them.

He manages on feel, and he is very old-school in that he doesn't do anything that is outside convention. Runner on first, time to bunt him over. Closer hasn't ever gotten 6 outs before, can't do it; must have him pitch the 9th because he's the 'closer' and he's trying to get a 'save'.

If he is actually trying to analyze spring training numbers as a way to make decisions in the postseason, that would exhibit A as to why he is making poor decisions.

Fredi doesn't know what Kimbrel can handle because he's never let him try, even in the biggest game we played all year, when we absolutely had to stop a run from scoring. Again, pitch him in the 8th and find somebody else later if you need them. There's nothing that says once your closer enters, he will remain in the game for the remainder no matter what happens. We needed him right then, and he wasn't used. That's inexplicable.

I'll put it to you this way, which do you think had a better chance of ending the game with a W:
a) Carpenter pitches the rest of the 8th with a runner on 2nd (that he allowed a 2B to) and no outs, with Kimbrel pitching the 9th, OR
b) Kimbrel pitches the rest of the 8th with a runner on 2nd and no outs, then returns for the 9th.

To me, it isn't even a question. It's Kimbrel every time. In the regular season, you may keep Carpenter in because even if you lose, it's one game and you can't just throw Kimbrel constantly in every game.
In an elimination game, you pull the trigger. That is the primary difference between the Braves and organizations like the Cardinals. They know the playoffs are different, we don't seem to get that.

While the Rangers do have a proactive throwing program, they still use their bullpen like everyone else in MLB. It's laughable at best to suggest that a manager doesn't know his players that he is around 8-9 months of the year. Getting four outs is pretty specific- and not "conventional". That tells me he knows what Kimbrel can and can't do- whether you want to believe it or not.

As far as your Carpenter/Kimbrel scenario- I would have gone with Carpenter to get Uribe because again- I knew they were likely going to bunt. (Todd was right) Why waste Kimbrel on that? I expect ANY pitcher to get a guy bunting out. If Carpenter gets an 0-2 count on someone, I expect him to not hang a breaking ball that is going to get hit to the Sunset Strip. So, now you likely have a runner on third and one out- and THEN you bring in Kimbrel because you need a strike out at that point. And then you go forward.

Again- you are operating on hindsight. Even if you deny it. Sometimes a manager makes a move that is not a bad move and it simply doesn't work out. What if he had brought Kimbrel in and then he gets worn out because he has gone longer than normal- then Fredi gets questioned for that. Bring in Mike Minor? Please. A starting pitcher is going to take even longer to get ready than a normal relief pitcher plus how many relief appearances does Minor have? And on the flip side- if Fredi brings Kimbrel in and it works out- hey, great. But it's risky and sometimes that works out- like the Dodgers pitching Kershaw on short rest. But if it doesn't, he's going to have to live it down. As it is, I don't think the manager made a bad decision in this case.

[dawgs]

wait, someone is defending fredi gonzalez as an in-game strategist? i just assumed that everyone accepted he was a mediocre at best in-game manager.

[msstate7]

wait, someone is defending fredi gonzalez as an in-game strategist? i just assumed that everyone accepted he was a mediocre at best in-game manager.

A cardinal fan. I'm sure dodger fans think he's doing great also.

[Will James]

Gattis wasn't a better hitter than McCann. His OPS was 26 points lower; his OBP was below .300.



i'd be shocked if he ever hits above .280 for a full season without a ridiculous amount of BABIP luck.

I am succeeding

[msstate7]

Leyland brings his ace (scherzer) in 7th inning for relief. Mattingly starts kershaw on 3 days rest. Fredi wouldn't let his best pitcher get an extra inning even after CK asked for the ball.

[BoomBoom]

While the Rangers do have a proactive throwing program, they still use their bullpen like everyone else in MLB. It's laughable at best to suggest that a manager doesn't know his players that he is around 8-9 months of the year. Getting four outs is pretty specific- and not "conventional". That tells me he knows what Kimbrel can and can't do- whether you want to believe it or not.

As far as your Carpenter/Kimbrel scenario- I would have gone with Carpenter to get Uribe because again- I knew they were likely going to bunt. (Todd was right) Why waste Kimbrel on that? I expect ANY pitcher to get a guy bunting out. If Carpenter gets an 0-2 count on someone, I expect him to not hang a breaking ball that is going to get hit to the Sunset Strip. So, now you likely have a runner on third and one out- and THEN you bring in Kimbrel because you need a strike out at that point. And then you go forward.

Again- you are operating on hindsight. Even if you deny it. Sometimes a manager makes a move that is not a bad move and it simply doesn't work out. What if he had brought Kimbrel in and then he gets worn out because he has gone longer than normal- then Fredi gets questioned for that. Bring in Mike Minor? Please. A starting pitcher is going to take even longer to get ready than a normal relief pitcher plus how many relief appearances does Minor have? And on the flip side- if Fredi brings Kimbrel in and it works out- hey, great. But it's risky and sometimes that works out- like the Dodgers pitching Kershaw on short rest. But if it doesn't, he's going to have to live it down. As it is, I don't think the manager made a bad decision in this case.

Fredi has had a rep on bullpen management from long before that one example "Flow-chart Fredi".

Btw, let me remind you how the Braves last postseason series ended: Bobby Cox lifted a rookie flamethrower, 40 Ks and ridiculously low ERA in 20 IP since called up, after he gave up a seeing-eye single, to go to basic generic lefty vs a guy who hits lefties better than righties. that rookie was Craig Kimbrel.

[Todd4State]

wait, someone is defending fredi gonzalez as an in-game strategist? i just assumed that everyone accepted he was a mediocre at best in-game manager.

He's no LaRussa. But whenever Fredi gets fired- and it will happen at some point- I highly doubt not bringing in Kimbrel will be brought up.

[Will James]

wRC+

Puig - 160
McCann - 122
Gattis - 110

wOBA

Puig - .398
McCann - .347
Gattis - .329

[Todd4State]

Fredi has had a rep on bullpen management from long before that one example "Flow-chart Fredi".

Btw, let me remind you how the Braves last postseason series ended: Bobby Cox lifted a rookie flamethrower, 40 Ks and ridiculously low ERA in 20 IP since called up, after he gave up a seeing-eye single, to go to basic generic lefty vs a guy who hits lefties better than righties. that rookie was Craig Kimbrel.

I absolutely agree that Fredi is not the best manager out there right now overall. Does- he do some questionable things, or possibly go by the book to much? Sure. But I'm not talking about his overall tenure here- I'm talking about one decision in particular.

[msstate7]

wRC+

Puig - 160
McCann - 122
Gattis - 110

wOBA

Puig - .398
McCann - .347
Gattis - .329

I never said gattis was better than puig. I don't believe he is. I do believe gattis is every bit the power hitter of puig though.

About gattis vs McCann... That's the difference in their stats in mccann's ninth year (free agent year) vs gattis' rookie season. Next year gattis' numbers will be better than mccann's.

[msstate7]

I absolutely agree that Fredi is not the best manager out there right now overall. Does- he do some questionable things, or possibly go by the book to much? Sure. But I'm not talking about his overall tenure here- I'm talking about one decision in particular.

In the 8th inning with 2 runners on fredi let Elliot Johnson hit and promptly pulled him for janish. Elliot hit under .200 this year. That was an incredibly dumb move to me.

[Todd4State]

In the 8th inning with 2 runners on fredi let Elliot Johnson hit and promptly pulled him for janish. Elliot hit under .200 this year. That was an incredibly dumb move to me.

You know what that move was saying to me? "I think we have this series won and I want to make sure everyone gets into the game so that they can say that they played in the series." That move is only good if you are in a championship game and you are by 13. I don't like that move- remember the Bill Buckner error in 1986 in the World Series that cost the Red Sox? They Red Sox had a better defender named Dave Stapleton who they would bring in for Buckner defensively. John McNamara wanted Buckner to be on the field as the Red Sox won the World Series, so he left the better defender on the bench. Blew up in his face big time.

Fredi put Jordan Shafer in the game as well- followed by the announcer- "This is their first appearance in the NLDS."

[dawgs]

I am succeeding

ha, i just wish football would become more open to the new way of thinking. chip kelly is a start, but someone even more willing to throw out the book and go purely on sabermetrics and analytics will come along and completely and utterly revolutionize the game. it's gonna happen. i wish dan would just start doing it. basketball has started going that way too.

[Dawg61]

ha, i just wish football would become more open to the new way of thinking. chip kelly is a start, but someone even more willing to throw out the book and go purely on sabermetrics and analytics will come along and completely and utterly revolutionize the game. it's gonna happen. i wish dan would just start doing it. basketball has started going that way too.

You mean like the HS coach in Texas winning 80%+ of all his games that NEVER punts and always kicks onside kicks and goes for 2? It's coming to a small college soon.

[smootness]

Again- you are operating on hindsight. Even if you deny it.

No. By definition it isn't hindsight if it is foresight.

I said before the inning that we should go with Carpenter until he allowed a baserunner. I said when he allowed the double that we should bring Kimbrel in. We didn't, we lost.

You can say that it doesn't prove bringing in Kimbrel would have been the right move, but it definitely isn't hindsight.

I don't know how much you watch the Braves, but I promise you, Fredi's decision was simply on 'feel'. Kimbrel has actually pitched 2 full innings 3 times before in the majors, he did it multiple times in the minors, he was too fresh in game 2, he had pitched one time in 10 games prior, it was an elimination game, he's the best pitcher in baseball, he said he could go 2 innings, and he wanted to do it.

You can tell me he would be second-guessed either way; I don't care about that. I care about making the right move, and the right move wasn't to leave Carpenter in there.

I'm not kidding, if you think Uribe might swing away with 2 strikes, you let Carpenter throw one off the plate, and if Uribe doesn't square to bunt, you bring Kimbrel in right there. It was our last game of the season, assuming we didn't win. We had to win. We had to give ourselves the best chance to win, and that was to have Kimbrel on the mound as soon as he could go. Period. Everything else is just trying to make excuses for it.

You can't manage game 4 in a 5-game series when down 2-1 like you do game 114. That is the kind of thinking that has held the Braves back for years in the playoffs, and it has to change or we will keep doing this. Over and over and over and over.

[msstate7]

No. By definition it isn't hindsight if it is foresight.

I said before the inning that we should go with Carpenter until he allowed a baserunner. I said when he allowed the double that we should bring Kimbrel in. We didn't, we lost.

You can say that it doesn't prove bringing in Kimbrel would have been the right move, but it definitely isn't hindsight.

I don't know how much you watch the Braves, but I promise you, Fredi's decision was simply on 'feel'. Kimbrel has actually pitched 2 full innings 3 times before in the majors, he did it multiple times in the minors, he was too fresh in game 2, he had pitched one time in 10 games prior, it was an elimination game, he's the best pitcher in baseball, he said he could go 2 innings, and he wanted to do it.

You can tell me he would be second-guessed either way; I don't care about that. I care about making the right move, and the right move wasn't to leave Carpenter in there.

I'm not kidding, if you think Uribe might swing away with 2 strikes, you let Carpenter throw one off the plate, and if Uribe doesn't square to bunt, you bring Kimbrel in right there. It was our last game of the season, assuming we didn't win. We had to win. We had to give ourselves the best chance to win, and that was to have Kimbrel on the mound as soon as he could go. Period. Everything else is just trying to make excuses for it.

You can't manage game 4 in a 5-game series when down 2-1 like you do game 114. That is the kind of thinking that has held the Braves back for years in the playoffs, and it has to change or we will keep doing this. Over and over and over and over.

I agree completely. I esp agree with part about bringing in CK once uribe wasn't bunting. McCann should catch some blame for calling 2 straight breaking balls though. After the blast, carpenter threw nothing but fastballs and got 3 easy outs. Carpenter throws 97 and after Garcia pitching all night that had to look like 108.

[msstate7]

I'm watching the rays-red sox and I really wish the braves had joe maddon. I love how he manages

[BoomBoom]

I agree completely. I esp agree with part about bringing in CK once uribe wasn't bunting. McCann should catch some blame for calling 2 straight breaking balls though. After the blast, carpenter threw nothing but fastballs and got 3 easy outs. Carpenter throws 97 and after Garcia pitching all night that had to look like 108.

McCann did the same thing with Teheran. though Teheran was shaking him off a lot too.

[msstate7]

McCann did the same thing with Teheran. though Teheran was shaking him off a lot too.

I know it's hindsight and all, but I think laird would've done much better with Teheran in a road playoff start. Teheran was almost exclusively caught by laird early in the year and Gerald did a great job with him.

I know I've ripped McCann a lot, but I'm really disappointed with his terrible performance from sept till last night. In an elimination game, McCann almost got tossed for arguing strikes -- a really selfish act for a guy that's suppose to be a leader. He was 0 for 13 in this series, which makes him 12 for 49 (.209) in his postseason career. I've had enough of McCann. Wish him the best, but it's time to move on.

[Todd4State]

No. By definition it isn't hindsight if it is foresight.

I said before the inning that we should go with Carpenter until he allowed a baserunner. I said when he allowed the double that we should bring Kimbrel in. We didn't, we lost.

You can say that it doesn't prove bringing in Kimbrel would have been the right move, but it definitely isn't hindsight.

I don't know how much you watch the Braves, but I promise you, Fredi's decision was simply on 'feel'. Kimbrel has actually pitched 2 full innings 3 times before in the majors, he did it multiple times in the minors, he was too fresh in game 2, he had pitched one time in 10 games prior, it was an elimination game, he's the best pitcher in baseball, he said he could go 2 innings, and he wanted to do it.

You can tell me he would be second-guessed either way; I don't care about that. I care about making the right move, and the right move wasn't to leave Carpenter in there.

I'm not kidding, if you think Uribe might swing away with 2 strikes, you let Carpenter throw one off the plate, and if Uribe doesn't square to bunt, you bring Kimbrel in right there. It was our last game of the season, assuming we didn't win. We had to win. We had to give ourselves the best chance to win, and that was to have Kimbrel on the mound as soon as he could go. Period. Everything else is just trying to make excuses for it.

You can't manage game 4 in a 5-game series when down 2-1 like you do game 114. That is the kind of thinking that has held the Braves back for years in the playoffs, and it has to change or we will keep doing this. Over and over and over and over.

Kimbrel has pitched more than two innings three times in his career including the postseason (I'm assuming that's the third game because I only found two two inning appearances during the regular season) Two of those were in 2010 when he first came up- one was a blow out loss to Tampa and one was in the postseason against the Giants. The LAST time he went two innings- 2011. He blew the save. And unless I'm overlooking it, he hasn't had a two inning outing since in a regular or postseason game.

I agree that you don't manage an elimination game like you do game 114- but you also don't put your players in a position where they are not likely to succeed either. And let's not act like David Carpenter is a garbage pitcher- this is a guy with an ERA of 1.78 who had 74 K's in 65 IP and had only allowed 5 home runs all year. His WHIP was 0.999

And maybe this is my foresight kicking in here- but I have a feeling that if Fredi had brought in Kimbrel when you wanted him to he would have blown the lead in the ninth from being worn out, and you would probably be complaining about the fact that he hasn't pitched two innings since 2011 and how stupid it was and how he should have pitched Carpenter. Let's be honest here- it's quite possible you were screwed either way. The only thing that is known is what happened with Carpenter, and we'll never truly know what would have happened with Kimbrel.

But I also don't think you can sit there and say "oh gee, that was a stupid managerial decision".

[Todd4State]

I agree completely. I esp agree with part about bringing in CK once uribe wasn't bunting. McCann should catch some blame for calling 2 straight breaking balls though. After the blast, carpenter threw nothing but fastballs and got 3 easy outs. Carpenter throws 97 and after Garcia pitching all night that had to look like 108.

This is an excellent point. If you're going to get beat, get beat by your best pitch.

[Dawg61]

Wow this has gotten to 7 pages!

[CadaverDawg]

Wow this has gotten to 7 pages!

Yep, this thread has lasted longer than a actual MLB game. Just barely though.

[dawgs]

You mean like the HS coach in Texas winning 80%+ of all his games that NEVER punts and always kicks onside kicks and goes for 2? It's coming to a small college soon.

exactly. i think there's one in arkansas too. bill barnwell on grantland writes a lot of good stuff analyzing when you should go for it on 4th and go for 2 and what not. if the odds of converting 4th down are greater than 32%, you should always go for it according to the numbers fwiw.

[smootness]

Let's be honest here- it's quite possible you were screwed either way. The only thing that is known is what happened with Carpenter, and we'll never truly know what would have happened with Kimbrel.

I would be much more ok with saying, 'We'll never know what would have happened had we not brought in Kimbrel,' than, 'We'll never know what would have happened had we brought in Kimbrel'.

Again, I don't know how much you watch of the Braves, but Kimbrel is historically phenomenal. He is undoubtedly the best RP in the game, and is already putting up some of the best numbers of all-time. Carpenter had a very good year, but he had an ERA of over 8 last year, he didn't pitch very well in AAA to start the year, and it was the playoffs; given the fact that he had already been lit up earlier in the series, Carpenter, in a do-or-die situation, was nowhere near as good an option as Kimbrel.

Please stop trying to evaluate whether it was a good move or not by what I would say had Kimbrel blown it. First, I would not be complaining; it would have been the right move, and it would have been the move that I wanted him to make. Again, I didn't start complaining after the fact; I was already ticked that we didn't immediately bring him in, before the HR ever occurred.

And regardless, what fans will criticize someone for has nothing to do with whether it was the right move. Bringing Kimbrel in was the right move, period. If fans had criticized him for that, they would be the dumb ones. Instead, Fredi is.

[dawgs]

http://deadspin.com/report-braves-players-boycotted-chipper-joness-first-1442463473

lol, how did i miss this the last couple of days?

[msstate7]

http://deadspin.com/report-braves-players-boycotted-chipper-joness-first-1442463473

lol, how did i miss this the last couple of days?

I knew chipper picked the dodgers and ruffled the braves' feathers, but I didn't know that no one was willing to catch his pitch.

[dawgs]

I knew chipper picked the dodgers and ruffled the braves' feathers, but I didn't know that no one was willing to catch his pitch.

you'd think the braves would have wanted to go out and prove him wrong instead of getting pissy about his opening pitch and proving him right. along with just reinforcing everyone's opinion (except braves fans) that the braves squad is full of a bunch of turds.

[BoomBoom]

I would be much more ok with saying, 'We'll never know what would have happened had we not brought in Kimbrel,' than, 'We'll never know what would have happened had we brought in Kimbrel'.

Again, I don't know how much you watch of the Braves, but Kimbrel is historically phenomenal. He is undoubtedly the best RP in the game, and is already putting up some of the best numbers of all-time. Carpenter had a very good year, but he had an ERA of over 8 last year, he didn't pitch very well in AAA to start the year, and it was the playoffs; given the fact that he had already been lit up earlier in the series, Carpenter, in a do-or-die situation, was nowhere near as good an option as Kimbrel.

Please stop trying to evaluate whether it was a good move or not by what I would say had Kimbrel blown it. First, I would not be complaining; it would have been the right move, and it would have been the move that I wanted him to make. Again, I didn't start complaining after the fact; I was already ticked that we didn't immediately bring him in, before the HR ever occurred.

And regardless, what fans will criticize someone for has nothing to do with whether it was the right move. Bringing Kimbrel in was the right move, period. If fans had criticized him for that, they would be the dumb ones. Instead, Fredi is.

I'll add two things here, one for each side:

The Braves needed 9 more wins, not just 1. You can't pitch CK for all the relief innings. Carpenter needed to pitch meaningful innings at some point, might as well put him right back on the horse.

CK pitched a 2 inning save in 2010 NLDS. Of his 4 Ks in that appearance, one was of Juan Uribe.

[Dawg61]

I'll add two things here, one for each side:

The Braves needed 9 more wins, not just 1. You can't pitch CK for all the relief innings. Carpenter needed to pitch meaningful innings at some point, might as well put him right back on the horse.

CK pitched a 2 inning save in 2010 NLDS. Of his 4 Ks in that appearance, one was of Juan Uribe.

Good lord let it go. The Braves had all year to find late inning pitchers. They should of been prepared by the GM and front office. Injuries and inability to acquire pitching on the market busted out the Braves this year. You can't ask CK to close 2 innings in LA. That's unrealistic.

[msstate7]

Good lord let it go. The Braves had all year to find late inning pitchers. They should of been prepared by the GM and front office. Injuries and inability to acquire pitching on the market busted out the Braves this year. You can't ask CK to close 2 innings in LA. That's unrealistic.

Unrealistic? Was it unrealistic for kershaw to start a game 3 days after throwing a 124 pitches? Maybe, but kershaw wanted the ball. CK wanted the ball for the last 6 outs. Mattingly trusted the best starter in mlb and fredi didnt trust the best reliever in mlb. The team that went with their best is playing on. The team that didnt is home

[Dawg61]

Unrealistic? Was it unrealistic for kershaw to start a game 3 days after throwing a 124 pitches? Maybe, but kershaw wanted the ball. CK wanted the ball for the last 6 outs. Mattingly trusted the best starter in mlb and fredi didnt trust the best reliever in mlb. The team that went with their best is playing on. The team that didnt is home

It'll bite the Dodgers in the ass vs the Cards. Their lack of starters after Kershaw and Grienke will be exposed soon.

[msstate7]

It'll bite the Dodgers in the ass vs the Cards. Their lack of starters after Kershaw and Grienke will be exposed soon.

I like the cards too.

[dawgs]

It'll bite the Dodgers in the ass vs the Cards. Their lack of starters after Kershaw and Grienke will be exposed soon.

pretty sure they are set to go with grienke in game 1 and kershaw in game 2 on full rest. they'll be fine. ryu is also an above average SP3 and nolasco has been an above avg SP4 since he joined the dodgers, especially in LA where his era is something like 2.50. the cards have far bigger questions behind wainwright imo.

grienke
kershaw
ryu
nolasco

v.

kelly
wacha
wainwright
lynn

i'd take the dodgers easy, especially with both grienke and kershaw lined up for 2 start apiece if needed.

[dawgs]

Good lord let it go. The Braves had all year to find late inning pitchers. They should of been prepared by the GM and front office. Injuries and inability to acquire pitching on the market busted out the Braves this year. You can't ask CK to close 2 innings in LA. That's unrealistic.

lulz, not unrealistic at all. i agree it was fine starting with carpenter in the 8th until a guy got on and letting him throw to uribe once it was apparent uribe was looking to bunt. just the worst possible confluence of events happened in that uribe AB to bite the braves in the ass. couldn't have happened to a better bunch though.

[msstate7]

lulz, not unrealistic at all. i agree it was fine starting with carpenter in the 8th until a guy got on and letting him throw to uribe once it was apparent uribe was looking to bunt. just the worst possible confluence of events happened in that uribe AB to bite the braves in the ass. couldn't have happened to a better bunch though.

Hey...watch it

[Will James]

I got the Dodgers over the Cards

[Todd4State]

I would be much more ok with saying, 'We'll never know what would have happened had we not brought in Kimbrel,' than, 'We'll never know what would have happened had we brought in Kimbrel'.

Again, I don't know how much you watch of the Braves, but Kimbrel is historically phenomenal. He is undoubtedly the best RP in the game, and is already putting up some of the best numbers of all-time. Carpenter had a very good year, but he had an ERA of over 8 last year, he didn't pitch very well in AAA to start the year, and it was the playoffs; given the fact that he had already been lit up earlier in the series, Carpenter, in a do-or-die situation, was nowhere near as good an option as Kimbrel.

Please stop trying to evaluate whether it was a good move or not by what I would say had Kimbrel blown it. First, I would not be complaining; it would have been the right move, and it would have been the move that I wanted him to make. Again, I didn't start complaining after the fact; I was already ticked that we didn't immediately bring him in, before the HR ever occurred.

And regardless, what fans will criticize someone for has nothing to do with whether it was the right move. Bringing Kimbrel in was the right move, period. If fans had criticized him for that, they would be the dumb ones. Instead, Fredi is.

You really want to throw what Carpenter did in AAA as evidence that you are right? LOL. How about what he did in MLB? Which is more relevant since that is against the hitters that he actually faced.

I don't watch the Braves all the time- but I do know enough about Kimbrel to know that he starts to lose his command after about 25-30 pitches. I know enough that if Mike Matheny had done the exact same thing, I wouldn't be upset at him. I know enough that Kimbrel hasn't pitched two innings in a game since 2011 and has done it THREE times in all of 230+ MLB appearances.

But please, keep telling me how you were somehow right despite all of the mounting evidence that CLEARLY shows how huge of a risk bringing in Kimbrel would have been- while all the while you had another guy that had an ERA of 1.78 and over a K an inning sitting in the bullpen. Kimbrel has been phenomenal in ONE inning situations- not two.

You blame your manager for a move that pretty much every other manager in the game would have made and talk about how "dumb" he is- when you really need to be complaining about the pitcher hanging a breaking ball AFTER the batter pretty much gave him an 0-2 count, and the catcher that called three breaking balls in a row.

And by the way, I do think it's very fair to "evaluate what you would say had Kimbrel blown the game" because you have proven over and over on here that you like to argue for the sake of arguing no matter what.

[smootness]

He's been phenomenal in every situation. The only reason you can say it's been one inning as opposed to two is because he hasn't been asked to pitch two innings. Go look at Mariano Rivera's career. He doesn't pitch 2 innings in the regular season. But he does it often in the postseason because when you have a lead and have to win the game, you go with your best option.

[Todd4State]

He's been phenomenal in every situation. The only reason you can say it's been one inning as opposed to two is because he hasn't been asked to pitch two innings. Go look at Mariano Rivera's career. He doesn't pitch 2 innings in the regular season. But he does it often in the postseason because when you have a lead and have to win the game, you go with your best option.

Sigh, aGAIN the last time Kimbrel was asked to pitch two innings he blew the save. Kimbrel is NOT Mariano Rivera. Some closers can do it- like Rivera. And some can't- like Kimbrel. All players are not equal- even if they both play the same position and are both good players. We've been over this before. Rivera is also not a max effort guy and has near perfect control. He's not going to get worn out nearly as quickly as a guy like Kimbrel.

I've got data and the Braves manager- who knows more about his players than you do whether you choose to believe it or not and whether you think he is a good manager or not on my side. You have the fact that you were playing chicken little and what you guessed might happen did happen on your side- without knowing the actual results of the move that you think might have been right. And all of that doesn't take into account the long term effects of wearing Kimbrel out and the ramifications that might have had later on in the playoffs.

But by all means as a National League fan- I hope Fredi "asks" Kimbrel to pitch two innings more so my team won't have to deal with him at his peak level of performance. Hey, Mariano Rivera did it right?

[dawgs]

Sigh, aGAIN the last time Kimbrel was asked to pitch two innings he blew the save.

small sample sizes are small sample sizes.

[Will James]

small sample sizes are small sample sizes.

Indeed. An that inning was a much higher leverage situation with Puig leading off than the 9th would have been. So even if he could only pitch one, it shoul have been the 8th. Dusty Baker spent many a night holding Chapman for the precious 9th in a save situation that he ended up losing before that inning even got there.

[BoomBoom]

You really want to throw what Carpenter did in AAA as evidence that you are right? LOL. How about what he did in MLB? Which is more relevant since that is against the hitters that he actually faced.

I don't watch the Braves all the time- but I do know enough about Kimbrel to know that he starts to lose his command after about 25-30 pitches. I know enough that if Mike Matheny had done the exact same thing, I wouldn't be upset at him. I know enough that Kimbrel hasn't pitched two innings in a game since 2011 and has done it THREE times in all of 230+ MLB appearances.

But please, keep telling me how you were somehow right despite all of the mounting evidence that CLEARLY shows how huge of a risk bringing in Kimbrel would have been- while all the while you had another guy that had an ERA of 1.78 and over a K an inning sitting in the bullpen. Kimbrel has been phenomenal in ONE inning situations- not two.

You blame your manager for a move that pretty much every other manager in the game would have made and talk about how "dumb" he is- when you really need to be complaining about the pitcher hanging a breaking ball AFTER the batter pretty much gave him an 0-2 count, and the catcher that called three breaking balls in a row.

And by the way, I do think it's very fair to "evaluate what you would say had Kimbrel blown the game" because you have proven over and over on here that you like to argue for the sake of arguing no matter what.

This argument really comes down to: should you always save your closer until the 9th? Fredi says yes. And you appear to be defending that view, which surprises me. Remember, part of the vitriol here comes from Fredi's responses. If he'd said he'd only left DC in because Uribe was bunting, It'd be different.

As to CK pitch count, I've never seen him get wild at higher pi5ch counts. In fact, it's normally the opposite, he starts wild then finds the zone. And you can always pitch him in the 8th then pull him if it took too many pitches to get thru the 8th. The point is to give yourself options, and choose the ones that give you the best chance of success, but Fredi doesn't do that. Flow chart Fredi. Keep in mind this is the same manager that ALWAYS pitches everyone in the pen before CK in tie games on the road. He just doesn't get bullpen management, and while this isn't the most egregious example of it he still deserves all the blame and no benefit of the doubt.

[starkvegasdawg]

With all this talk of bring him in for one inning or two, Fredi's decisions, leaving Uggla off the roster, etc. - Just chalk it up to the fact that this is October and the Braves job is to choke in October. The only drama is how it will be done each year. Will be a pitchers giving up the late run (this year), our offense failing to score more than one run a game (most years), a base running mistake (Lonnie Anderson), Hrbek pulling Ron Gant off of first base, what? Once you realize that the fate will be the same it makes for much less stressful viewing. You could even set up an office pool on how they blow it in the post season next year.

[BoomBoom]

With all this talk of bring him in for one inning or two, Fredi's decisions, leaving Uggla off the roster, etc. - Just chalk it up to the fact that this is October and the Braves job is to choke in October. The only drama is how it will be done each year. Will be a pitchers giving up the late run (this year), our offense failing to score more than one run a game (most years), a base running mistake (Lonnie Anderson), Hrbek pulling Ron Gant off of first base, what? Once you realize that the fate will be the same it makes for much less stressful viewing. You could even set up an office pool on how they blow it in the post season next year.

1995.

Besides, more often than not it's terrible decisions by Bobby Cox or his protege. That's why Braves fans have such a short fuse for it.

Hell, you're talking to a guy who celebrated when MLB changed the rules to allow injury replacements within a series, because it meant Cox didn't have to carry 3 catchers anymore.

[smootness]

This argument really comes down to: should you always save your closer until the 9th? Fredi says yes. And you appear to be defending that view, which surprises me. Remember, part of the vitriol here comes from Fredi's responses. If he'd said he'd only left DC in because Uribe was bunting, It'd be different.

As to CK pitch count, I've never seen him get wild at higher pi5ch counts. In fact, it's normally the opposite, he starts wild then finds the zone. And you can always pitch him in the 8th then pull him if it took too many pitches to get thru the 8th. The point is to give yourself options, and choose the ones that give you the best chance of success, but Fredi doesn't do that. Flow chart Fredi. Keep in mind this is the same manager that ALWAYS pitches everyone in the pen before CK in tie games on the road. He just doesn't get bullpen management, and while this isn't the most egregious example of it he still deserves all the blame and no benefit of the doubt.

Thank you.

Acting as though Fredi uses his closer according to what is most likely to work is crazy. He uses his closer as he has been taught to use the closer...namely, that you only bring him into a game if it is the 9th inning and you have a lead of 1-3 runs. Occasionally he will use him in a tie game from the 9th on at home but that is only because he knows he can't get a save in that game.

The only other times Kimbrel pitches, it is either because everyone else has been used, or because he hasn't pitched in x number of days and he needs innings.

It is all centered around 'the save', which is dumb, especially in an elimination game in the postseason.

[Dawg61]

No manager brings in their closer in that situation. EVER. It's Juan 17ing Uribe. A right handed batter that has tipped that he is going to bunt. You let the setup guy get the out the Dodgers are trying to give you. Thats the problem though. The Braves have no reliable setup pitchers. How many 7-8th inning pitchers could you get with BJ Upton's contract? Enough to not even think about bringing in your closer with zero outs in the 8th. That's little league shit.

[smootness]

The Braves' bullpen was great. The problem is, they all started becoming shaky near the end of the year, and the best two were out all year with injuries.

But yes, you do bring your closer in then, in an elimination game in the postseason. Again, not during the regular season, no; but there definitely are managers there who would do it, at least if it's David Carpenter vs. Craig Kimbrel.

It doesn't matter who is at the plate; one seeing-eye grounder would have tied it there, so you have to go all out to prevent the run. If you absolutely have to (can't imagine that ultimately happening), you can pull Kimbrel later. But you have to have him in there to try to put out the fire.

If there really are no managers who would do that, then they're all dumb. It isn't little league, it's smart baseball.

[Dawg61]

The Braves' bullpen was great. The problem is, they all started becoming shaky near the end of the year, and the best two were out all year with injuries.

But yes, you do bring your closer in then, in an elimination game in the postseason. Again, not during the regular season, no; but there definitely are managers there who would do it, at least if it's David Carpenter vs. Craig Kimbrel.

It doesn't matter who is at the plate; one seeing-eye grounder would have tied it there, so you have to go all out to prevent the run. If you absolutely have to (can't imagine that ultimately happening), you can pull Kimbrel later. But you have to have him in there to try to put out the fire.

If there really are no managers who would do that, then they're all dumb. It isn't little league, it's smart baseball.

I get what you're saying, I really do but again the simple fact that all you can think of is Craig Kimbrel when you must have an out with 6 outs to go is why the Braves lost. They didn't lose to the Dodgers because of the players they had they lost because of the ones the front office failed to go get. Look at how many moves the Dodgers have made since Magic & Co. bought the team. If the Braves just make 1/4th those moves and focus on building for the postseason they would of won. 2 years ago the Dodgers didn't have 6 of the starting 8 hitters they ran out vs the Braves and I think only 1 of the 12 pitchers. That's insane.

[msstate7]

I get what you're saying, I really do but again the simple fact that all you can think of is Craig Kimbrel when you must have an out with 6 outs to go is why the Braves lost. They didn't lose to the Dodgers because of the players they had they lost because of the ones the front office failed to go get. Look at how many moves the Dodgers have made since Magic & Co. bought the team. If the Braves just make 1/4th those moves and focus on building for the postseason they would of won. 2 years ago the Dodgers didn't have 6 of the starting 8 hitters they ran out vs the Braves and I think only 1 of the 12 pitchers. That's insane.

So who on the braves would you cut? Heyward, Justin upton, Simmons, FF, and gattis are all young hitters with tremendous upside. Bj didnt work out this year, but I look for him to rebound next season. McCann is gone. I look for LeStella, pastornicky, or Pena to take over at 2b. Chris Johnson was outstanding this year at 3b. I really think moving gattis behind the plate, plugging one of the above in at 2b, and a bounce back year for bj will make this an outstanding hitting team next year.

Pitching... There's talk about the braves going for David price as our ace. Even if that doesn't work out beachy, minor, Teheran, medlen, and. Wood/hale could be a pretty good rotation. Venters should be back in the pen next season with carpenter, avilan, CK, walden, and Varvaro should be solid. Don't be surprised if EoF resigns at a bargain price.

[Dawg61]

The Braves made two huge blunders in signing BJ and Uggla. That's close to 25 million a year they could be spending on pitching with an emphasis on relief pitching. They need to somehow get out of those deals and spend it better. The Braves are not alone in this new battle vs the Dodgers. It's a huge problem for the entire NL. The Dodgers are spending more than the Yankees. No other teams can spend like them because nobody else has gotten a 6 BILLION dollar tv contract recently. This is the one thing I dislike most about the MLB. It's not equal playing fields. The NFL is MUCH better with parody amongst teams because they cap the spending. The NBA is more fair too.

[CadaverDawg]

This thread has literally lasted longer than the braves playoff run now.

[Will James]

Dawg61 I see your spending argument and give you the Angels and Athletics. Agreed about needing to spend that money on bullpen rather than BJ

[msstate7]

Dawg61 I see your spending argument and give you the Angels and Athletics. Agreed about needing to spend that money on bullpen rather than BJ

Braves bullpen was fine until injuries. EoF was a huge injury. Walden getting hurt at the end of the year was also a big blow. We traded for Scott downs who was death on lefties until September came. I like most of the moves the braves made, but the bj deal was a killer this year. I think bj bounces back next season

[Todd4State]

small sample sizes are small sample sizes.

If you're a Braves fan, you may not want a large sample size in this case.

[Todd4State]

Indeed. An that inning was a much higher leverage situation with Puig leading off than the 9th would have been. So even if he could only pitch one, it shoul have been the 8th. Dusty Baker spent many a night holding Chapman for the precious 9th in a save situation that he ended up losing before that inning even got there.

So, I guess it would have been better to blow the game in the ninth with the same guys that blew the lead in the 6th, 7th, or 8th? I guess it is more exciting that way because it leads to more walk-off wins. And how do you know in game that you aren't going to have an even higher leverage situation in the 9th? Crystal ball? Base it off of your fans freaking out on a message board?

Not to mention the long term damage of forcing Chapman to get up and get down in the bullpen and throwing meaningless pitches in the pen.

Either way you cut it, the Reds obviously need to get better relief pitchers. That has nothing to do with a manager wanting a guy to get a save.

[Will James]

Higher leverage first off because it was the middle of the order. 9th would have been the bottom. Also much much higher with the leadoff man reaching 2nd base.

[HereComesTheSpiral]

So, I guess it would have been better to blow the game in the ninth with the same guys that blew the lead in the 6th, 7th, or 8th? I guess it is more exciting that way because it leads to more walk-off wins. And how do you know in game that you aren't going to have an even higher leverage situation in the 9th? Crystal ball? Base it off of your fans freaking out on a message board?

Not to mention the long term damage of forcing Chapman to get up and get down in the bullpen and throwing meaningless pitches in the pen.

Either way you cut it, the Reds obviously need to get better relief pitchers. That has nothing to do with a manager wanting a guy to get a save.

Isn't dusty baker known for destroying pitchers arms

[Todd4State]

This argument really comes down to: should you always save your closer until the 9th? Fredi says yes. And you appear to be defending that view, which surprises me. Remember, part of the vitriol here comes from Fredi's responses. If he'd said he'd only left DC in because Uribe was bunting, It'd be different.

As to CK pitch count, I've never seen him get wild at higher pi5ch counts. In fact, it's normally the opposite, he starts wild then finds the zone. And you can always pitch him in the 8th then pull him if it took too many pitches to get thru the 8th. The point is to give yourself options, and choose the ones that give you the best chance of success, but Fredi doesn't do that. Flow chart Fredi. Keep in mind this is the same manager that ALWAYS pitches everyone in the pen before CK in tie games on the road. He just doesn't get bullpen management, and while this isn't the most egregious example of it he still deserves all the blame and no benefit of the doubt.

To be clear- I don't always think that you should bring in your closer to start the 9th no matter what. Please point out where I ever said that. What I DO believe is that you shouldn't put or ask players to do something where they are going to likely fail and then that in turn causes your team to lose. I don't believe Kimbrel could have gone two without significantly losing command. When you watch Kimbrel pitch, how often does he get up to 40-50 pitches? If it was Mariano Rivera in your bullpen- go ahead and bring him in because he CAN be effective in that situation. Jason Motte when he is healthy- I don't think he could get through two innings either. Trevor Rosenthal probably could go two innings if the Cardinals wanted him to. Both closers- different amounts of stamina.

I'm saying all pitchers aren't created equal and you have to trust your coaching staff to know what their abilities are and aren't. And it's not just Fredi's decision- his information is coming largely from their pitching coach and their coaching staff members. The coaches see these players perform in non-game situations like bullpen sessions, as well as game situations like spring training games. They chart all kinds of things from velocity to location. This isn't just haphazard by the book as much as it may appear. And when you have your manager coming out and saying "I would use him for four outs"- that's not by the book and very specific.

I think what the argument comes down to is would you rather bitch about your manager losing making a risky decision or bitch about him making a conservative decision and losing. Apparently the answer is it depends on how you exactly lose at that particular time. Because I highly doubt any Braves fan would say- well, we brought in Kimbrel too soon, but hey! At least it wasn't by the flow chart!

[Todd4State]

Higher leverage first off because it was the middle of the order. 9th would have been the bottom. Also much much higher with the leadoff man reaching 2nd base.

It was 5, 6, 7 in the order. The Dodgers catcher hit .333 in that series and he was hitting 8th. And you don't think the Dodgers aren't going to pinch hit for their pitcher? On top of that with Puig on second- you don't think Carpenter has a good chance of striking out a guy that basically conceded an 0-2 count to him? As we know in hindsight- Puig got the double- which had things gone according to plan the Braves would have had to face a pinch hitter and then the top of the Dodgers order- including a red hot Carl Crawford.

[Todd4State]

Isn't dusty baker known for destroying pitchers arms

LOL. Yes. He is accused- and rightfully so- of ruining Mark Prior and Kerry Wood.

[dawgs]

The Braves made two huge blunders in signing BJ and Uggla. That's close to 25 million a year they could be spending on pitching with an emphasis on relief pitching. They need to somehow get out of those deals and spend it better. The Braves are not alone in this new battle vs the Dodgers. It's a huge problem for the entire NL. The Dodgers are spending more than the Yankees. No other teams can spend like them because nobody else has gotten a 6 BILLION dollar tv contract recently. This is the one thing I dislike most about the MLB. It's not equal playing fields. The NFL is MUCH better with parody amongst teams because they cap the spending. The NBA is more fair too.

the dodgers will win for the next few years, but in a couple of years, they'll look like the yankees right now. they'll have a lot of guys in their mid-30s making way too much money and unless they go for a $300M payroll, won't have the $$ to bring in young guys while simultaneously paying off the old ones. the yankees are about to be bad. real bad. and you can't really sign your way out of sucking through big free agent deals anymore. you want to complement your core guys with smart signings, but there's no way i'd hand a $100+M deal to a guy on the wrong side of 30 in the post-roids era of baseball.

also, the way baseball has changed the contracts and team control for young players evens things out. if you have a strong young core and sign them early through their arbitration years and a few years into their free agency years, you can lock them up for like the 1st decade of their career for a reasonable price (see rays deal with longoria and brewers deal with braun and many other examples). at that point guys are in the 32-34 range and probably at or near the end of their prime years, so be smart and let a team like the dodgers or yankees overpay, and take your compensation pick. or trade them for prospects before they hit the market. baseball has never been more fair for small market teams.

[Will James]

It was 5, 6, 7 in the order.

Exactly. After that is 8-PH- Crawford- and a weak Mark Ellis (who has no business in the 2 hole Mattingly) You are almost assured of not seeing HanRam or AGon again. Puig leading off is much more high leverage than the 9th. Puig getting on second and Kimbrel remaining in the pen is criminal managerial practice.



The Dodgers catcher hit .333 in that series.

So? He hit .238 this whole year. I trust 115 games over 4.


And you don't think the Dodgers aren't going to pinch hit for their pitcher?

Again, so? Puig is leading off. Then Puig is on 2nd.


On top of that with Puig on second- you don't think Carpenter has a good chance of striking out a guy that basically conceded an 0-2 count to him?

Not as good of a chance as Kimbrel.

The idea is that Kimbrel can't go more than one? I would ask what is this based on? Just because Flow Chart Fredi hasn't tried it doesn't make it so. He was not allowed to try it this year. Last year his longest outing was 1.1 IP. In that appearance he faced the Rockies and recorded 4 K's. Yes, all outs were K's. That was the only >1 IP occurrence of that season as well.

The problem is how bullpen's are managed by the old-school.

[Dawg61]

Hindsight is always 20/20. Uribe was supposed to be a free out. The Dodgers wanted him to bunt. The Braves knew he wanted to bunt. They knew he was a free out. Why would you bring in your closer for a free out? You wouldn't. Nobody would. Would you bring in Kimbrel to start the 8th? Not if he's not used to that situation. If Kimbrel fails in that situation Freddi would have sealed his fate with that unconventional move. He had his arms tied.

[smootness]

You're fabricating his loss of command as he pitches more. It just doesn't happen. And you talked about once he passes 25 pitches...he did it about 4 times this year, passing 30 only once. So how often does he throw 40-50 pitches? He doesn't, and likely wouldn't even in 2 full innings.

He is an extremely efficient pitcher. This is a guy who just put together probably the greatest 2-year stretch by a RP in baseball history, and has unarguably had a better start to his career than even Rivera. The greatest strikeout pitcher in baseball history.

This is not a guy who gets out of control from time to time or starts losing it at some point,and if you think that, you just don't see the Braves play. He is a phenomenal pitcher, and he is the guy you have to use when your season is on the line.

You wouldn't defend Cohen if he kept Holder in the bullpen in Omaha because we needed one more out or two before it was the perfect time to bring him in. You wouldn't say, 'He knows his players'. And you know what? We don't have to worry about that, because he wouldn't do it.

The bottom line is, Fredi was totally comfortable using him for 4 outs, but not 6. That is, what, 6 pitches? 10? 2? Completely asinine.

[Todd4State]

And gentlemen see Kenley Jansen tonight. Mattingly brings in his closer in a non-save situation that he's not comfortable in- walk and then walk-off.

[Will James]

And gentlemen see Kenley Jansen tonight. Mattingly brings in his closer in a non-save situation that he's not comfortable in- walk and then walk-off.

The smallest of sample sizes

[Todd4State]

You're fabricating his loss of command as he pitches more. It just doesn't happen. And you talked about once he passes 25 pitches...he did it about 4 times this year, passing 30 only once. So how often does he throw 40-50 pitches? He doesn't, and likely wouldn't even in 2 full innings.

He is an extremely efficient pitcher. This is a guy who just put together probably the greatest 2-year stretch by a RP in baseball history, and has unarguably had a better start to his career than even Rivera. The greatest strikeout pitcher in baseball history.

This is not a guy who gets out of control from time to time or starts losing it at some point,and if you think that, you just don't see the Braves play. He is a phenomenal pitcher, and he is the guy you have to use when your season is on the line.

You wouldn't defend Cohen if he kept Holder in the bullpen in Omaha because we needed one more out or two before it was the perfect time to bring him in. You wouldn't say, 'He knows his players'. And you know what? We don't have to worry about that, because he wouldn't do it.

The bottom line is, Fredi was totally comfortable using him for 4 outs, but not 6. That is, what, 6 pitches? 10? 2? Completely asinine.

College baseball is a different animal than MLB. 162 vs. 56 games. You can use your bullpen much differently- and you also have a totally different skill set of hitters. I expect a closer in college to go two no matter what. And actually- I have defended Cohen before because I know that he knows his players.

How many pitches would Kimbrel have thrown? Most hitters in that situation are going to take two strikes. That's at least three per batter right there. An average inning for a strike out pitcher is probably 15-20 pitches. And I GUARANTEE you that the Dodgers coaches are going to tell their hitters to be patient so that they can work him out of the game.

Again, Kimbrel doesn't get out of control because your manager doesn't ALLOW him to be put in a position to get out of control. You should be thankful. Criticize whatever else you want about him- it's just really hard to criticize that particular move.

And comparing Kimbrel to Rivera? Cart before the horse. Give it about ten years if not more.

[Todd4State]

The smallest of sample sizes

I see it happen ALL the time to closers. There's a reason it's a small sample size.

Do you really expect MLB managers to make moves that lose them games so that sabermaticians can have a nice sample size to show that it doesn't work?

[Todd4State]

Exactly. After that is 8-PH- Crawford- and a weak Mark Ellis (who has no business in the 2 hole Mattingly) You are almost assured of not seeing HanRam or AGon again. Puig leading off is much more high leverage than the 9th. Puig getting on second and Kimbrel remaining in the pen is criminal managerial practice.




So? He hit .238 this whole year. I trust 115 games over 4.



Again, so? Puig is leading off. Then Puig is on 2nd.



Not as good of a chance as Kimbrel.

The idea is that Kimbrel can't go more than one? I would ask what is this based on? Just because Flow Chart Fredi hasn't tried it doesn't make it so. He was not allowed to try it this year. Last year his longest outing was 1.1 IP. In that appearance he faced the Rockies and recorded 4 K's. Yes, all outs were K's. That was the only >1 IP occurrence of that season as well.

The problem is how bullpen's are managed by the old-school.

Actually bullpens used to be managed like you are saying- and they stopped because it didn't work as well as the way that they do now. What you are saying is much more old school than what they do in MLB right now. My uncle was a closer in the 70's, and sometimes they would bring him in during the 6th inning. In a game that they were winning by 2-3 runs. The funny thing to me is your data is based off of pitchers performing in their maximum environment- and then you're going to take them out of that and expect them to perform the same? Seriously?

That's like someone coming up with a study on why Bryce Harper and Mike Trout should bat 8th and then people buying into as a good idea.

[Will James]

I see it happen ALL the time to closers.

The following stats are combined for all closers this season with 30+ saves

Non Save situation - 239 IP....2.67 ERA.....1.10 WHIP.....11.2 K/9
Save Situations - ...577 IP..... 2.53 ERA....1.06 ERA.......10.3 K/9

Pretty statistically insignificant if you ask me.

8 of the 15 closers (53%) had lower WHIP's in non-save situations
9 of the 15 closers (60%) had lower ERA's in non-save situations
8 of the 15 closers (53% had more K/9 in non-save situations

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1764238-are-mlb-closers-able-to-maintain-dominance-in-non-save-situations

[Will James]

For pretty much the entire history of baseball teams going into the 9th with a lead win 95% of the time. Why wait to use your relief ace for this spot, when much higher leverage situations occur in the earlier innings? It's asinine. Cohen gets it for the most part with Holder.

[Todd4State]

The following stats are combined for all closers this season with 30+ saves

Non Save situation - 239 IP....2.67 ERA.....1.10 WHIP.....11.2 K/9
Save Situations - ...577 IP..... 2.53 ERA....1.06 ERA.......10.3 K/9

Pretty statistically insignificant if you ask me.

8 of the 15 closers (53%) had lower WHIP's in non-save situations
9 of the 15 closers (60%) had lower ERA's in non-save situations
8 of the 15 closers (53% had more K/9 in non-save situations

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1764238-are-mlb-closers-able-to-maintain-dominance-in-non-save-situations

So, about half of the 15 closers did better in non-save situations? Seems about right to me- it seems to suggest that some closers can do it and are better at it than others. Which also suggests that not all closers are equal- and you have to know what your pitcher can and can't do. The ones that can should in theory balance out the ones that can't in a broad study.

Edit to add: A non-save situation is a situation where a team has a lead of more than three runs. If you bring in a closer when you have a 5-6 run lead- which usually happens because your closer needs to get in a game and get some work, they normally do well. That would fall in the non-save category as well. What I've noticed is when a team is behind or the game is tied and they are asked to get out of a jam like Jansen tonight- that's when some of them have problems.

[Todd4State]

For pretty much the entire history of baseball teams going into the 9th with a lead win 95% of the time. Why wait to use your relief ace for this spot, when much higher leverage situations occur in the earlier innings? It's asinine. Cohen gets it for the most part with Holder.

You're confusing the term "closer" for "relief ace". Why does the closer always have to be the relief ace? The closer is simply the guy that gets the final outs of the game. That's why people use the term set-up man, middle reliever etc. What you are saying is about like saying "why not put a shortstop at catcher"? It's simple- because it won't work as well. Why not assign roles to your bullpen based upon what each guy does the best so you can maximize his potential and give your team a better chance at reducing arm wear and tear? It helps with preparation and it helps pitchers mentally prepare better to do their job. And you are saying that's asinine? No- it makes PERFECT sense to anyone that has actually dealt with human beings and pitchers. I'm telling you- I've been around these people before and if you just throw them out there haphazardly they are not going to perform as well. But if you tell one of them- "hey, you're going to pitch the 9th and finish the game out" it makes a BIG difference.

And again- you can not determine what is "higher leverage" until after the game. If your starter gets in trouble in the second inning- do you bring in your closer? You can't simply look at a batting order and determine what's going to happen in any inning based off of that. If the Cardinals did that tonight- they would have in theory used Rosenthal in the third innings tonight- and then missed out on Kelly's three quality innings plus they would not have had Rosenthal for the extra innings tonight- when they actually really needed him.

Cohen does normally use Holder well- he brings him in to finish the game. And he can go longer than most closers in college. But Cohen also almost cost us a sweep to Ole Miss by bringing in Holder in the third inning- and he promptly gave up three runs and got us in a 6-0 hole. Thank God for Adam Frazier and Ben Bracewell and the fact that Ole Miss's bullpen was subpar. This was the SAME Ole Miss team I saw Holder completely embarrass in Pearl. If Ben didn't have the game of his life, who knows who would have closed that game out?

[Will James]

So, about half of the 15 closers did better in non-save situations?

Yes since half did and half didn't it tends to lead to the conclusion that your theory doesn't hold water. My theory would be proven on a 50-50 split like this which shows zero correlation. Everyone can remember certain times where certain things happen (like how scoring happens sometimes after a man on 1 no out bunt). To test it you have to greatly widen your sample size and trust the percentages.

[dawgs]

So, about half of the 15 closers did better in non-save situations? Seems about right to me- it seems to suggest that some closers can do it and are better at it than others. Which also suggests that not all closers are equal- and you have to know what your pitcher can and can't do. The ones that can should in theory balance out the ones that can't in a broad study.

Edit to add: A non-save situation is a situation where a team has a lead of more than three runs. If you bring in a closer when you have a 5-6 run lead- which usually happens because your closer needs to get in a game and get some work, they normally do well. That would fall in the non-save category as well. What I've noticed is when a team is behind or the game is tied and they are asked to get out of a jam like Jansen tonight- that's when some of them have problems.

Come on man, the avg numbers were within statistical variance of each other. Some guys were slightly better, some probably slightly worse. At the end of the day, assuming a closer threw a decent number of non-save innings so that 1 bad outing didn't totally skew the numbers, I'd bet there aren't many closers with a huge difference in numbers.

I hope will James can pull numbers on whether there's a statistical difference between big lead appearances and behind/tied appearances. I'd say I notice more closers giving up runs in big lead situations, not close games.

[Will James]

Per Fangraphs. Taking the league as a whole for 2013

High Leverage situation FIP - 3.79
Low Leverage situation FIP - 3.82

[Todd4State]

Yes since half did and half didn't it tends to lead to the conclusion that your theory doesn't hold water. My theory would be proven on a 50-50 split like this which shows zero correlation. Everyone can remember certain times where certain things happen (like how scoring happens sometimes after a man on 1 no out bunt). To test it you have to greatly widen your sample size and trust the percentages.

You obviously didn't read what I said. So, 50% HALF of the INDIVIDUAL pitchers before better- that shows that managers have to know their players and what they can do. A manager might have one that can- and he might have one that can't. So, you have to know what you've got and what he can do so you don't get burned.

If you are a manager and you base things off of broad data and favor that over what your individual pitcher can do- you're not going to be managing for long.

[Todd4State]

Come on man, the avg numbers were within statistical variance of each other. Some guys were slightly better, some probably slightly worse. At the end of the day, assuming a closer threw a decent number of non-save innings so that 1 bad outing didn't totally skew the numbers, I'd bet there aren't many closers with a huge difference in numbers.

I hope will James can pull numbers on whether there's a statistical difference between big lead appearances and behind/tied appearances. I'd say I notice more closers giving up runs in big lead situations, not close games.

Do you know how many runs are charged in a walk-off situation to a closer? 1-2. The numbers would likely be worse if the game didn't end and the pitcher had to stay out there. And if a closer is getting hit, no manager is going to just leave them out there to rot. Again, as with much of sabermetrics- skewed numbers.

[smootness]

You obviously didn't read what I said. So, 50% HALF of the INDIVIDUAL pitchers before better- that shows that managers have to know their players and what they can do. A manager might have one that can- and he might have one that can't. So, you have to know what you've got and what he can do so you don't get burned.

If you are a manager and you base things off of broad data and favor that over what your individual pitcher can do- you're not going to be managing for long.

This is getting crazy. The fact that half were a little better and half a little worse, in a one-year sample of numbers, shows that situation by and large doesn't matter, not that it does. You're reaching there.

And if Fredi knew his pitchers, he should have known that David Carpenter doesn't pitch well in those situations in playoff games, because history shows he doesn't. It wasn't just an evaluation of Kimbrel vs. no Kimbrel. It was Kimbrel vs. Carpenter, and there's no justification for leaving Carpenter in.

Please don't try to use Kenley Jansen in comparison. It's Kenley Jansen; he is in no way, shape, or form Craig Kimbrel. If you think they're similar, you just don't know Kimbrel.

FWIW, there's actually a chance I've seen Kimbrel pitch in more games than Fredi Gonzalez, and I have no reason to think he couldn't handle it, and Kimbrel himself clearly thought he could handle it and wanted it. It clearly didn't make him uncomfortable.

[Will James]

Todd clearly if its 50-50 that means there is no correlation. Overall they will follow the rule. Do you expect anyone to be exactly the same? Of course you can always pick out individual instances but the rule of closers not performing the same in other situations is not factual. Since that is the rule, over time most all will even out.

[Todd4State]

Todd clearly if its 50-50 that means there is no correlation. Overall they will follow the rule. Do you expect anyone to be exactly the same? Of course you can always pick out individual instances but the rule of closers not performing the same in other situations is not factual. Since that is the rule, over time most all will even out.

Well some people in this thread have suggested that if Mariano Rivera could do it then Kimbrel could do it. I'm the one saying people are different. That study is intended to show that it doesn't matter- which is wrong depending on who the pitcher is.

If you as a manager know your pitcher will perform better in a particular situation, you put them in that situation.

And it still doesn't address what a manager is to do when they use up their closer and all they have left is Mitchell Boggs.

[Todd4State]

And on top of that, one side has 250 innings vs 500. How do you know BABIP hasn't come into play?**

[Todd4State]

This is getting crazy. The fact that half were a little better and half a little worse, in a one-year sample of numbers, shows that situation by and large doesn't matter, not that it does. You're reaching there.

And if Fredi knew his pitchers, he should have known that David Carpenter doesn't pitch well in those situations in playoff games, because history shows he doesn't. It wasn't just an evaluation of Kimbrel vs. no Kimbrel. It was Kimbrel vs. Carpenter, and there's no justification for leaving Carpenter in.

Please don't try to use Kenley Jansen in comparison. It's Kenley Jansen; he is in no way, shape, or form Craig Kimbrel. If you think they're similar, you just don't know Kimbrel.

FWIW, there's actually a chance I've seen Kimbrel pitch in more games than Fredi Gonzalez, and I have no reason to think he couldn't handle it, and Kimbrel himself clearly thought he could handle it and wanted it. It clearly didn't make him uncomfortable.

Bottom line- get a better set-up man.