Mstate7 a real question...

[I seen it dawg]

Who would you rather have playing SS for us....Alexander or Gridley?

[msstate7]

Gridley. I think Alexander is a better defender, but gridley is definitely better with the stick. Gridley would make this team better. I would love to have both though

[basedog]

Who would you rather have playing SS for us....Alexander or Gridley?

Is that a trick question?

[I seen it dawg]

So Gridley?

[I seen it dawg]

Is that a trick question?

Bear with me

[msstate7]

So Gridley?

If the question is either/or at SS, then yes, Gridley. The ideal situation would be Gridley at DH and Alexander at SS

[Bulldog1]

This is about to be funny.

[basedog]

Bear with me

I'm trying think who the worse SS I've seen play at Msu? I've never recall a .220 hitter batting 4th ever at Msu. I suppose he is our power hitter so.......

[ShotgunDawg]

Gridley. I think Alexander is a better defender, but gridley is definitely better with the stick. Gridley would make this team better. I would love to have both though

I 2nd this

[I seen it dawg]

Ok I'll assume you would take Gridley. Gridley had 9 Errors his jr year to Alexander's 7 at this point. So better with glove is largely debateable and i only use errors bc that's what you always spit out...

Hitting no need to go into. Gridley hit better as a freshman than Alexander currently.

You shit on Gridley his entire career that he was not an SEC SS. We fought over it for 3 years. And now you would take Gridley over Alexander....

[Dawgcap]

Seriously I wa hopin for some answers to this question cause I felt the experts would be busy solving other teams problems.

[I seen it dawg]

And i want Alexander to succeed bc he is on our team and if he succeeds it helps our team. He's not getting any help being made to hit above 8th. Not his fault. He is what he is a really good defender that is limited with what he can do with the bat. Not his fault.

This is an indictment on mstate7 and pounding his chest on Alexander and riding Pilk for being "average"

[I seen it dawg]

Mstate7 don't bother digging thru all the stats....it won't help you here...

[ShotgunDawg]

Ok I'll assume you would take Gridley. Gridley had 9 Errors his jr year to Alexander's 7 at this point. So better with glove is largely debateable and i only use errors bc that's what you always spit out...

Hitting no need to go into. Gridley hit better as a freshman than Alexander currently.

You shit on Gridley his entire career that he was not an SEC SS. We fought over it for 3 years. And now you would take Gridley over Alexander....

Not to interject myself into your argument, but errors is a pretty terrible way to determine defensive ability. Alexander has better feet, more sure hands, and better arm strength. He makes errors on plays Gridley wouldn't get to.

All that being said, if I could only have one, Gridley everyday

[5049]

Ok I'll assume you would take Gridley. Gridley had 9 Errors his jr year to Alexander's 7 at this point. So better with glove is largely debateable and i only use errors bc that's what you always spit out...

Hitting no need to go into. Gridley hit better as a freshman than Alexander currently.

You shit on Gridley his entire career that he was not an SEC SS. We fought over it for 3 years. And now you would take Gridley over Alexander....

mstate7 is a typical example of cherry picking statistics for your own agenda

Of course, he learned from the master

[Todd4State]

Is Ole Miss the opponent?**

[msstate7]

Mstate7 don't bother digging thru all the stats....it won't help you here...

Stats definitely aren't your friend pumping pilk as the elite in the sec

If Gridley was on this team, I would dh him. He would be the 2nd best hitter on the team, but...

Alexander is better than Gridley at SS defensively
Stovall is better Gridley at 2b defensively
Foscue is better than Alexander at 3b defensively

Lineup:
Jake
Stovall
Gridley
Allen
Foscue
Macnamee
Alexander
Gilbert
Rowdey

[msstate7]

Not to interject myself into your argument, but errors is a pretty terrible way to determine defensive ability. Alexander has better feet, more sure hands, and better arm strength. He makes errors on plays Gridley wouldn't get to.

All that being said, if I could only have one, Gridley everyday

Useless to explain this. BA and errors are the key stats these parts

[msstate7]

Is Ole Miss the opponent?**
Lol

[msstate7]

mstate7 is a typical example of cherry picking statistics for your own agenda

Of course, he learned from the master

Haha... who taught me?

[Bulldog1]

Is this true that 7 used errors as a stat to pound Gridley? Just want to clarify.

[msstate7]

Is this true that 7 used errors as a stat to pound Gridley? Just want to clarify.

I have never judged a player defensively by errors unless it was a real problem. I judge SS by range and arm

[Dawgcap]

Is this true that 7 used errors as a stat to pound Gridley? Just want to clarify.

You have to admit it was funny to dog Pilkington then Small give up 3 Ervin 5.1 innings

[basedog]

I don't hate Belmont, as far as Sec SS, he is not. What is his Sec batting average?

[Bulldog1]

I have never judged a player defensively by errors unless it was a real problem. I judge SS by range and arm
What do you consider a "real problem".

[5049]

Haha... who taught me?

The one and only

[5049]

I don't hate Belmont, as far as Sec SS, he is not. What is his Sec batting average?

I bet he's one of those guys that makes that crazy jump and hits like .345 as a senior

[msstate7]

What do you consider a "real problem".

Dansby Swanson last season in Atlanta.

[Bulldog1]

I don't hate Belmont, as far as Sec SS, he is not. What is his Sec batting average?

I don't have an exact number, but I believe it's lower than his .223 regular avg. But I'm not certain.

[msstate7]

I bet he's one of those guys that makes that crazy jump and hits like .345 as a senior

I say .280 with even more power

[Bulldog1]

Dansby Swanson last season in Atlanta.

Are you predicting a Dansby turnaround for Luke next year? ** Lol.

[msstate7]

Are you predicting a Dansby turnaround for Luke next year? ** Lol.

Luke has had a good season. He is not an offense first player, but he has helped the offense even with a low BA. Again, if he is so terrible, who you play over him considering he leads the team in HRs and RBIs and 3rd in extra base hits?

[basedog]

I bet he's one of those guys that makes that crazy jump and hits like .345 as a senior

I will take that bet all day every day and twice on Sunday. Belmont cannot consisted hit a breaking pitch.

Him being 0-15 this weekend probably puts him close to the .200 in Sec, just guessing.

[Bulldog1]

Luke has had a good season. He is not an offense first player, but he has helped the offense even with a low BA. Again, if he is so terrible, who you play over him considering he leads the team in HRs and RBIs and 3rd in extra base hits?

He is not a 2 hole hitter, neither is he a 4 hole hitter. He should be hitting in the 8 spot in a Sec lineup. Didn't you say yourself that he is not a good hitter?

[Todd4State]

Luke has had a good season. He is not an offense first player, but he has helped the offense even with a low BA. Again, if he is so terrible, who you play over him considering he leads the team in HRs and RBIs and 3rd in extra base hits?

This is the entire quandary about Luke. That and he plays at least solid defense plus the fact that when he does get a big hit it tends to be in a really big situation. And not just against Ole Miss- I can remember at least two other non-Ole Miss walk-off home runs he has had in his career including one against Alabama last year.

That said- he does need to improve his hitting. There is no debate about that. I do agree that he could be a guy that makes a huge jump his senior year too- but we'll see on that.

[Todd4State]

He is not a 2 hole hitter, neither is he a 4 hole hitter. He should be hitting in the 8 spot in a Sec lineup. Didn't you say yourself that he is not a good hitter?

I agree- he would ideally be somewhere between 6-9 in a lineup but with all of the freshmen this isn't exactly a typical lineup.

[I seen it dawg]

Ok I'll assume you would take Gridley. Gridley had 9 Errors his jr year to Alexander's 7 at this point. So better with glove is largely debateable and i only use errors bc that's what you always spit out...

Hitting no need to go into. Gridley hit better as a freshman than Alexander currently.

You shit on Gridley his entire career that he was not an SEC SS. We fought over it for 3 years. And now you would take Gridley over Alexander....

Again you were adamant Gridley entire career he was not an SEC SS yet you would take him over Alexander. If you had to choose one or the other you would take the guy that you said wasn't an SEC SS his entire career.

[msstate7]

Again you were adamant Gridley entire career he was not an SEC SS yet you would take him over Alexander. If you had to choose one or the other you would take the guy that you said wasn't an SEC SS his entire career.

My whole premise was that Alexander is a better defender at SS. On a team where they both play, Alexander is the better option in the field all day, everyday. Gridley is the better hitter all day, everyday. The simple solution is play the better defender in the field, and the better hitter can still hit

[basedog]

This is the entire quandary about Luke. That and he plays at least solid defense plus the fact that when he does get a big hit it tends to be in a really big situation. And not just against Ole Miss- I can remember at least two other non-Ole Miss walk-off home runs he has had in his career including one against Alabama last year.

That said- he does need to improve his hitting. There is no debate about that. I do agree that he could be a guy that makes a huge jump his senior year too- but we'll see on that.

I will take your bet also, lol. He will never hit close to .300

Not sure he would start for any other Sec team.

Belmont isn’t our biggest problem nor is he the blame.

[I seen it dawg]

.202 in conference to this point..216 since conference started incl non conf. Since his avg was .255, his highest point, after game 3 of Missouri series he is hitting .179 in sec play. Starting every game and never coming out. Kid could probably use a break.

[I seen it dawg]

My whole premise was that Alexander is a better defender at SS. On a team where they both play, Alexander is the better option in the field all day, everyday. Gridley is the better hitter all day, everyday. The simple solution is play the better defender in the field, and the better hitter can still hit

No. That's not the game. I asked you to choose from the total package. And you chose a player you said for his entire career he wasn't an SEC SS. It's simple.

[basedog]

Like I said, he is NOT a SEC SS starter.

[5049]

My whole premise was that Alexander is a better defender at SS. On a team where they both play, Alexander is the better option in the field all day, everyday. Gridley is the better hitter all day, everyday. The simple solution is play the better defender in the field, and the better hitter can still hit

I always thought Gridley was a more natural second baseman. Not sure what he's playing now. Once Alexander got hurt in 2016 that sealed the deal on that, and after he became a team leader it would have been dumb to move him

But yeah Alexander is a better defender. That said, I hope you really didn't say that Gridley wasn't an SEC shortstop, you're an idiot if you did

[I seen it dawg]

Shit I was good enough defensively to play in the SEC but would have been a .220 hitter...therefore my career ended in Juco

[Bulldog1]

What stat do you want to use if BA isn't accurate? On Base Percentage?

[I seen it dawg]

Shit I was good enough defensively to play in the SEC but would have been a .220 hitter...therefore my career ended in Juco

I guess at this point y'all would have been raising all kinds of Hell bc i would have been playing rf or 1b every inning of every game and hitting 3 hole if i would have played today instead of late 80s

[msstate7]

Like I said, he is NOT a SEC SS starter.

FWIW, only India of Florida has hit more HRs from the SS position than Alexander.

[msstate7]

What stat do you want to use if BA isn't accurate? On Base Percentage?
Babip

[Bulldog1]

Babip
I couldn't find Gridley's Babip. What was it?

[msstate7]

I couldn't find Gridley's Babip. What was it?

.357. Not out of line with college. MLB avg BABIP round .300

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=194623

[I seen it dawg]

Annnnndddddd Alexander's babip?

[Bulldog1]

Annnnndddddd Alexander's babip?

Wait for it............... Career .270

[Bulldog1]

Full chart.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=200796

[I seen it dawg]

What's their Jr yr fielding percentages?

[msstate7]

Annnnndddddd Alexander's babip?

.248

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=200796

He's been terribly unlucky. Babip is a stat of how lucky a hitter is.

[I seen it dawg]

.248

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=200796

He's been terribly unlucky. Babip is a stat of how lucky a hitter is.

Hahahahaha ok unlucky. Right.

[I seen it dawg]

I guess Gridley was just lucky for 3 yrs he got to play SS for us when he wasn't an SEC SS. But you chose him over Alexander.

[Todd4State]

Hahahahaha ok unlucky. Right.

This is the thing I HATE about BABIP. It's all about assuming luck.

[msstate7]

What's their Jr yr fielding percentages?

Fielding % judging SS is clown as clown can be. Whatever though, yeah he got that fielding % down pat.

[I seen it dawg]

Fielding % judging SS is clown as clown can be. Whatever though, yeah he got that fielding % down pat.

Gotcha....ok then mr stat give me some stats that prove Alexander is better defensively

[Bulldog1]

Fielding % judging SS is clown as clown can be. Whatever though, yeah he got that fielding % down pat.

What stat should we use? Fpbif? Is that even a thing? lol.

[msstate7]

Gotcha....ok then mr stat give me some stats that prove Alexander is better defensively

Dude, just look at where they lined up. Gridley has to play in all the time bc his lack of arm strength. Alexander can play back which improves his range bc he can get the ball to 1st from deep in the hole.

Like tombstone... I feel like I'm playing cards with my sister's kids

[I seen it dawg]

But curiously what is the fielding percentages?

[I seen it dawg]

Dude, just look at where they lined up. Gridley has to play in all the time bc his lack of arm strength. Alexander can play back which improves his range bc he can get the ball to 1st from deep in the hole.

Like tombstone... I feel like I'm playing cards with my sister's kids

You chose Gridley

[msstate7]

What stat should we use? Fpbif? Is that even a thing? lol.

Using fielding %, Nick Markakis is a better RF than Jason heyward. Hell, maybe you even believe this

[Bulldog1]

Using fielding %, Nick Markakis is a better RF than Jason heyward. Hell, maybe you even believe this

You must think I'm stupid. I never used fielding %. I asked you what should we use.

[msstate7]

You must think I'm stupid. I never used fielding %. I asked you what should we use.

In college, there are no defensive metrics. You just have to use the eye test.

The best I have seen in the sec is Connor Kaiser of vandy. He is outstanding defensively

[I seen it dawg]

Just for giggles....

Thru the end of April series for the season Alexander has 182 chances in the field. Gridley thru same time frame his jr year had 200....they both have 7 errors in same comparison...

[I seen it dawg]

I guess by Gridley playing so shallow all the time because he didn't have the arm or the ability to get to balls it made him have 18 more chances to make an error.

[I seen it dawg]

Gridley wasn't an SEC SS according to some

[I seen it dawg]

Gridley had 127 assists to Alexander 109 in same timeframe...but lack of range and weaker arm. #eyetest?

[msstate7]

I guess by Gridley playing so shallow all the time because he didn't have the arm or the ability to get to balls it made him have 18 more chances to make an error.

I thought you were smarter than this. I was wrong. The SS doesn't control the pitching getting groundballs and where they go. Gridley was the unquestioned master at getting the groundball off a hitter's bat.

With this completely foolish point, I surrender... Gridley is better than andrelton Simmons at SS. The unquestioned greatest defensive SS of all time

I cannot believe you think just bc they have played the same amount of games that both have seen the same number of groundballs and in the same places. LMAO

[basedog]

Hey, it doesn?t matter about the past. But .202 in Sec play is awful for a 21 year old junior. I?m pretty sure we?ve never had another SS in our history batting that low, and yes I?m guessing but I bet I?m close to being correct.

I hope we have someone coming in next year.b

[Bulldog1]

In college, there are no defensive metrics. You just have to use the eye test.

The best I have seen in the sec is Connor Kaiser of vandy. He is outstanding defensively

Ok. We'll agree to disagree about this whole issue.
•Off topic side note- The young boys are rocking it for the Braves!

[Bulldog1]

Hey, it doesn?t matter about the past. But .202 in Sec play is awful for a 21 year old junior. I?m pretty sure we?ve never had another SS in our history batting that low, and yes I?m guessing but I bet I?m close to being correct.

I hope we have someone coming in next year.b

JT Ginn. {If we can get him on campus.}

[I seen it dawg]

I thought you were smarter than this. I was wrong. The SS doesn't control the pitching getting groundballs and where they go. Gridley was the unquestioned master at getting the groundball off a hitter's bat.

With this completely foolish point, I surrender... Gridley is better than andrelton Simmons at SS. The unquestioned greatest defensive SS of all time

This is all you got? Really? This is it? I expected more than this. At least you got something right when you chose Gridley. Even though he's not an SEC SS.

[basedog]

JT Ginn. {If we can get him on campus.}

Is he a SS, I know he pitches.

[Bulldog1]

Is he a SS, I know he pitches.

I think he's a SS too. Not certain though.

[Todd4State]

I'm not sure what position Ginn will play in college but he is expected to pitch and hit if he comes to MSU.

[I seen it dawg]

I thought you were smarter than this. I was wrong. The SS doesn't control the pitching getting groundballs and where they go. Gridley was the unquestioned master at getting the groundball off a hitter's bat.

With this completely foolish point, I surrender... Gridley is better than andrelton Simmons at SS. The unquestioned greatest defensive SS of all time

I cannot believe you think just bc they have played the same amount of games that both have seen the same number of groundballs and in the same places. LMAO

Yeah I'm smarter than that and you for that matter. If all i got is your "eye test" then I feel good that I would go Gridley. As you should since you chose Gridley. But those pesky statistics that are out there...you like throwing them around when it's convenient for you but when they blow your shit up you aren't such a fan. If all you are gonna give me is some of your subjective bullshit then I've had my fun making your argument of the last 3 years of Gridley not being an SEC SS and you choosing him over Alexander when given the opportunity, well...bullshit. You aren't the baseball guru you pound your chest to be. But you hang on to the team leader in HRs and RBIs which is all you got. All the other stats be damned.

[I seen it dawg]

After you pound out a response that proves nothing to refute what I've given you answer me this...why did Gridley have more assists and total chances if his arm and range weren't as good? My guess is maybe the gap isn't what you or anyone else makes it out to be.

Disclaimer: I know damn good and well you can't truly compare the number bc it's different pitchers, hitters, etc. But it does give you some perspective. Hell if they don't tell any story why do they keep those annoying stats.

[Ari Gold]

Well this escalated quickly...
if this was a 12 round boxing match msstste7 trainer would have thrown the white towel in the ring already ..

[msstate7]

Well this escalated quickly...
if this was a 12 round boxing match msstste7 trainer would have thrown the white towel in the ring already ..

Ok... you agree with yourself... big surprise. Again, I should create an alter like you, ISID, to agree with myself. On 2nd thought, nah, that's weird

[Ari Gold]

Ok... you agree with yourself... big surprise. Again, I should create an alter like you, ISID, to agree with myself. On 2nd thought, nah, that's weird

Actually I’m just a bot.
I’m not involved in this one .. I’m still trying to wrap my head around u calling Pilk ( a top MLB prospect ) an average pitcher .

[msstate7]

Actually I’m just a bot.
I’m not involved in this one .. I’m still trying to wrap my head around u calling Pilk ( a top MLB prospect ) an average pitcher .

If you quote me, quote me right... avg for sec Friday night starter.

[ShotgunDawg]

.248

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=200796

He's been terribly unlucky. Babip is a stat of how lucky a hitter is.

.240ish is only unlucky is the ISO power/extra base hit percentage is good. With a good extra base hit percentage, a low BABIP could just mean that the guy just doesn't hit the ball hard.

[msstate7]

.240ish is only unlucky is the ISO power/extra base hit percentage is good. With a good extra base hit percentage, a low BABIP could just mean that the guy just doesn't hit the ball hard.

Freshman year = .286
Soph = .287
Junior = .248

~.040 below career avgs shows unlucky to me

[I seen it dawg]

Freshman year = .286
Soph = .287
Junior = .248

~.040 below career avgs shows unlucky to me

That your eye test again? Dude you got nothing here. You are just wrong and just got smoked. Man up and accept it. Actually don’t bc you are digging a sit on curveball and adjust to fastball size hole and it’s fun to watch.

You chose Gridley.

[msstate7]

.240ish is only unlucky is the ISO power/extra base hit percentage is good. With a good extra base hit percentage, a low BABIP could just mean that the guy just doesn't hit the ball hard.

Freshman year = .286 babip .111 iso
Soph = .287 babip .121 iso
Junior = .248 babip .167 iso

[Ari Gold]

The best career move LA needs to make before he enters or is eligible for the MLB draft is to hire Mssate7 as his agent.
Dude will go to war for him...

[msstate7]

The best career move LA needs to make before he enters or is eligible for the MLB draft is to hire Mssate7 as his agent.
Dude will go to war for him...

Lol

[JumpKing]

msstate7, answer me one question: did you coach Luke growing up? If so, I get it. He's a great guy and a talented player. You've probably seen him work his a$$ off to get to where he is. He's had some huge moments so far in his career. Brag on him all you want. That said, why do you have to bash the out of state guy to shore up your MS guy? You actually said at some point here that your 1st team All-SEC SHORTSTOP (and All-SEC Freshman SS) should ideally be the DH. Have you lost your 17ing mind? But hey, thanks for the laughs.

[msstate7]

msstate7, answer me one question: did you coach Luke growing up? If so, I get it. He's a great guy and a talented player. You've probably seen him work his a$$ off to get to where he is. He's had some huge moments so far in his career. Brag on him all you want. That said, why do you have to bash the out of state guy to shore up your MS guy? You actually said at some point here that your 1st team All-SEC SHORTSTOP (and All-SEC Freshman SS) should ideally be the DH. Have you lost your 17ing mind? But hey, thanks for the laughs.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=667667#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL

The 1st team all sec SS was immediately assigned to 2b once he reported to the minors. Why you think that was? Seems the best SS in the premier conference would play SS in milb too. He didn't know bc his arm and range are not what a SS requires defensively. Gridley was 1st team bc of his bat, and he deserved it.

Last 5 all sec SS...
Gridley - assigned to 2b immediately

Robertson - still a SS in A+

Bergman - played SS till AAA moved to 3b bc of Correa

Conte - played SS and 3b throughout milb career in AAA now

Frazier - played SS throughout minors among other positions. Utility in mlb and still plays SS some

[JumpKing]

Okay, I'll assume you're his daddy. Or perhaps high school coach? Again, bashing the GA guy because he's not your hometown hero. Your 1st team All-SEC SHORTSTOP didn't receive that honor by being average at the position. Pro ball is pro ball, but FWIW Gridley plays both sides there.
Have you ever once thought about the crap Gridley took for passing up offers in GA to go there? He knew a great program when he saw one, and he was right. He bleeds maroon. You should want more access to players from states you don’t recruit successfully in.

[Todd4State]

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=667667#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL

The 1st team all sec SS was immediately assigned to 2b once he reported to the minors. Why you think that was? Seems the best SS in the premier conference would play SS in milb too. He didn't know bc his arm and range are not what a SS requires defensively. Gridley was 1st team bc of his bat, and he deserved it.

Last 5 all sec SS...
Gridley - assigned to 2b immediately

Robertson - still a SS in A+

Bergman - played SS till AAA moved to 3b bc of Correa

Conte - played SS and 3b throughout milb career in AAA now

Frazier - played SS throughout minors among other positions. Utility in mlb and still plays SS some

The Dominicans have a lot to do with that.

[msstate7]

It isn't bashing a player to say someone is better defensively while the other is better offensively. If the Astros somehow acquired andrelton Simmons tomorrow, they would be foolish to play Correa at SS even though he was an all star last season. You find a way to keep Correa's bat in the lineup, but you play andrelton at SS.

And hell no, Alexander isn't in the universe with Simmons and gridley isn't in the universe with Correa. Just an example

[Bulldog1]

Okay, Msstate7.
Who do you choose with the glove?
Now who do you choose with the bat?

[msstate7]

Okay, Msstate7.
Who do you choose with the glove?
Now who do you choose with the bat?

I've said all along, Alexander > gridley defensively and gridley > Alexander offensively

[Bulldog1]

Luke makes some really good plays, but he also boots some routine ground balls.

[JumpKing]

That's not what you said, dude. You have specifically gone after Gridley for years. You know..."no range, no arm." Here's what the A's think of Gridley:

http://oaklandclubhouse.com/oakland-athletics-2018-top-50-prospects-ryan-gridley/

[msstate7]

Luke makes some really good plays, but he also boots some routine ground balls.

Last year Freddy galvis had 7 errors; andrelton Simmons had 14. Which one is a better SS?

[shoeless joe]

Msstate7 is correct that Alexander is the better defender at SS. Gridley is the better overall player tho and if I had to cut Alexander to keep gridley on the team that's a no brainer all day every day.

ISID is also correct that msstate7 makes emotional statements about baseball that arent always correct and sometimes uses stats and examples incorrectly to try to bolster his position.

Funny thread with a lot of wrong and a little right

[Bulldog1]

Last year Freddy galvis had 7 errors; andrelton Simmons had 14. Which one is a better SS?
Obviously Andrelton. We've already threw Errors out the window. What were their respective fielding analytic numbers?

[Bulldog1]

What I don't understand is he pounces on Pilk every Friday- "he's an average Friday night starter." But DON'T DARE say Alexander is an average shortstop!

[msstate7]

That's not what you said, dude. You have specifically gone after Gridley for years. You know..."no range, no arm." Here's what the A's think of Gridley:

http://oaklandclubhouse.com/oakland-athletics-2018-top-50-prospects-ryan-gridley/

Here is the complete list of their top 50 prospects... skip around and read the bios. They obviously have the greatest farm system of all time by reading those reports. In reality, they are middle of the pack

[msstate7]

What I don't understand is he pounces on Pilk every Friday- "he's an average Friday night starter." But DON'T DARE say Alexander is an average shortstop!

I just said yesterday that Alexander is bottom 5 in sec offensively and top 5 defensively. That is the definition of avg

[msstate7]

Here is the complete list of their top 50 prospects... skip around and read the bios. They obviously have the greatest farm system of all time by reading those reports. In reality, they are middle of the pack

Sorry

http://oaklandclubhouse.com/oakland-athletics-2018-top-50-prospects-final-edition/

[JumpKing]

A's are ranked 10 on the preseason farm report - top third. 7, you've got to do better!

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2759103-mlb-farm-system-rankings-pre-2018-spring-training-edition

[msstate7]

A's are ranked 10 on the preseason farm report - top third. 7, you've got to do better!

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2759103-mlb-farm-system-rankings-pre-2018-spring-training-edition

They are rated higher than I thought. I was incorrect in their farm ratings. Point remains that the site cited is all praise

[msstate7]

Msstate7 is correct that Alexander is the better defender at SS. Gridley is the better overall player tho and if I had to cut Alexander to keep gridley on the team that's a no brainer all day every day.

ISID is also correct that msstate7 makes emotional statements about baseball that arent always correct and sometimes uses stats and examples incorrectly to try to bolster his position.

Funny thread with a lot of wrong and a little right

IM NOT EMOTIONAL!!!!!

ok, from time to time lol

[Bulldog1]

I hate to keep arguing with you, because I like the majority of what you post on here, but I just have one question-
What makes you pick the certain players on each of our teams that are "your boys" like you do?

[msstate7]

I hate to keep arguing with you, because I like the majority of what you post on here, but I just have one question-
What makes you pick the certain players on each of our teams that are "your boys" like you do?

I always like players I think are good defenders, and usually ones that are hated on unfairly imo.

My all time favorite player is Andruw Jones. Great defender that caught a lot of criticism

Andrelton Simmons is another that was unbelievable defensively, but had a lot of terrible ABs that got him ripped on a lot.

I liked dansby a lot, but he became by favorite when he struggled so much and everyone turned on him.

My favorite player on state is actually Jake, not Luke.

[JumpKing]

Everyone deserves a Daddy like you, 7. This is funny stuff but the only opinions that matter are...you guessed it...the ones who fill out the lineup card. Gridley was the best defensive SS on the team last year, which is why he played there. He could've played anywhere just to get his bat in. Not a bash on Luke, but he didn't beat out Gridley for the position.

[msstate7]

Everyone deserves a Daddy like you, 7. This is funny stuff but the only opinions that matter are...you guessed it...the ones who fill out the lineup card. Gridley was the best defensive SS on the team last year, which is why he played there. He could've played anywhere just to get his bat in. Not a bash on Luke, but he didn't beat out Gridley for the position.

Welcome back, 34. Knew you couldn't stay away

[I seen it dawg]

You chose Gridley

[I seen it dawg]

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=667667#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL

The 1st team all sec SS was immediately assigned to 2b once he reported to the minors. Why you think that was? Seems the best SS in the premier conference would play SS in milb too. He didn't know bc his arm and range are not what a SS requires defensively. Gridley was 1st team bc of his bat, and he deserved it.

Last 5 all sec SS...
Gridley - assigned to 2b immediately

Robertson - still a SS in A+

Bergman - played SS till AAA moved to 3b bc of Correa

Conte - played SS and 3b throughout milb career in AAA now

Frazier - played SS throughout minors among other positions. Utility in mlb and still plays SS some

Here is where you are lacking in knowledge...again. To Todd's point Latin players and additionally Hs draftees at SS are more likely to stick at SS in pro ball than in college unless the college player has elite arm talent and feet, which not many do or they would have gotten drafted high and never made it to college. If they don't have elite arm talent and feet they march their happy ass right over to 2nd base for their pro career. It's always been the way. So when Alexander gets drafted bc of his "pop" and defensive skills you think he is gonna stay at SS?

[Homedawg]

This is the thing I HATE about BABIP. It's all about assuming luck.

I agree. problem w it is that it doesnt have a way to calculate or differentiate flyballs or how hard a ball is hit, they are all treated the same. LA has a low babip because he hits more than 60% of his balls in play in the air. Flyballs get caught in this league. This isn't coach pitch 7 where those balls find the ground. Just a fact. He will always have a low babip but not due to luck!

[msstate7]

I agree. problem w it is that it doesnt have a way to calculate or differentiate flyballs. LA has a low babip because he hits more than 60% of his balls in play in the air. Flyballs get caught in this league. This isn't coach pitch 7 where those balls find the ground. Just a fact. He will always have a low babip but not due to luck!

You're right he has a low babip bc he isn't a good hitter. I say he has been unlucky bc his babip is .040 less than his career avg while he is hitting more extra base hits than in his career. His babip has been low his whole career, but it is lower this season by a bunch.

[Bulldog1]

Where would you put him in your lineup?

[I seen it dawg]

You're right he has a low babip bc he isn't a good hitter. I say he has been unlucky bc his babip is .040 less than his career avg while he is hitting more extra base hits than in his career. His babip has been low his whole career, but it is lower this season by a bunch.

Sooooo his babip and avg are trending down from the beginning of his career until now....Gridley went up from beginning to end...

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

Everyone deserves a Daddy like you, 7.
Are you Gridley's daddy or something? You have 7 posts and all 7 of them are pimping or defending Gridley in one way or another. Talk about irony, this certainly is funny stuff

[msstate7]

Sooooo his babip and avg are trending down from the beginning of his career until now....Gridley went up from beginning to end...

Jake magnum's has plunged from his freshman year to now. BABIP is largely out of the batter's control.

[smootness]

This is the thing I HATE about BABIP. It's all about assuming luck.

It really isn't.

There is luck inherent in baseball. Everyone should understand that. There are 9 defensive players placed in various positions around the field, and a ball hit against one team in one alignment could fall for a hit where it wouldn't against another team in another alignment. Similarly, a player could get a hit precisely because they mishit a ball and it dropped in where if they had hit it more square it would have been caught. That's just the way baseball works.

BABIP tells you very little as a number on its own except that you can always assume the true outliers (anything north of .380 or so or south of .250ish can be considered lucky/unlucky to some degree pretty much across the board and due for regression). But it definitely does help when taking a look at a player's batted ball profile (basically the number of line drives or pop-ups, etc.) and comparing it to their career norms.

If a player hits a lot of line drives, they are more likely to end up with a higher BABIP. If that player also strikes out an average amount or better, you can expect them to have a very good BA. If they don't have a high BA, it is likely due to a low BABIP and probably a result of some bad luck. If that player continues to hit the same number of line drives and strike out the same amount, you can expect that BA to increase. In the same way, if a player strikes out a lot or doesn't hit all that many line drives but has a high BA, it is likely because they have a higher-than-normal BABIP and probably a result of good luck. If they keep striking out the same amount and hitting the same number of line drives, you can expect their BA to start to come down.

Take Chris Johnson in 2013 for Atlanta. A career .280 hitter suddenly jumped up to .321 and nearly led the league. The Braves signed him to an extension that offseason for several years thinking he had become a better hitter. But had he? To have a better idea, you need to look at more numbers. His strikeout % did come down some, so that's good and contributed somewhat to that jump in BA. But look at his line-drive rate, and he basically hit the same number of line drives as always. Look at his BABIP, though, and it was .394, which is basically unsustainable for anybody. Sure enough, his BABIP came back down the next year and he was terrible, and the Braves were stuck overpaying a bad player.

Here's the deal, though - that .394 was actually not as 'lucky' for Chris Johnson as it would be for somebody like Bryce Harper. Chris Johnson's career BABIP is .353 compared to Harper's .320. Why? Mostly because Chris Johnson hits 25% more line drives than Harper does, while Harper hits more fly balls, especially infield fly balls, which are obviously not good for your BABIP. So if a hitter has a BABIP of .350, that seems high. But you have to have more information before determining that it was 'lucky'. If it's Chris Johnson, he'll probably sustain that. If it's Bryce Harper, he probably won't.

BABIP doesn't assume anything. It's just a calculation. That calculation has to be used correctly, but absolutely is valuable and would have saved the Braves some wasted money. It's one of the best things the new metric wave in baseball analytics has produced.

[tcdog70]

Luke's problem is he can't hit Charley. He is a decent fastball hitter, but he usual lets the first fastball go by or he misses it. Then he doesn't have the patience to lay off sliders. He has gotten better this year by going oppo. At best he is a 250 hitter. But sometimes a productive 250 is better that a 300 hitter that sucks with runners is scoring position. with all that said he is 2nd in SEC in HRs by a SS. He has won us some games with His Bat. We don't have Gridley-so what is the point? And if Pilk pitched on Sunday's we would have won more series. Pride goith before the fall. the object is 2 win 2 out of 3--so be a little creative.

[I seen it dawg]

Jake magnum's has plunged from his freshman year to now. BABIP is largely out of the batter's control.

Yeah but we aren't talking about Mangum are we

[I seen it dawg]

It really isn't.

There is luck inherent in baseball. Everyone should understand that. There are 9 defensive players placed in various positions around the field, and a ball hit against one team in one alignment could fall for a hit where it wouldn't against another team in another alignment. Similarly, a player could get a hit precisely because they mishit a ball and it dropped in where if they had hit it more square it would have been caught. That's just the way baseball works.

BABIP tells you very little as a number on its own except that you can always assume the true outliers (anything north of .380 or so or south of .250ish can be considered lucky/unlucky to some degree pretty much across the board and due for regression). But it definitely does help when taking a look at a player's batted ball profile (basically the number of line drives or pop-ups, etc.) and comparing it to their career norms.

If a player hits a lot of line drives, they are more likely to end up with a higher BABIP. If that player also strikes out an average amount or better, you can expect them to have a very good BA. If they don't have a high BA, it is likely due to a low BABIP and probably a result of some bad luck. If that player continues to hit the same number of line drives and strike out the same amount, you can expect that BA to increase. In the same way, if a player strikes out a lot or doesn't hit all that many line drives but has a high BA, it is likely because they have a higher-than-normal BABIP and probably a result of good luck. If they keep striking out the same amount and hitting the same number of line drives, you can expect their BA to start to come down.

Take Chris Johnson in 2013 for Atlanta. A career .280 hitter suddenly jumped up to .321 and nearly led the league. The Braves signed him to an extension that offseason for several years thinking he had become a better hitter. But had he? To have a better idea, you need to look at more numbers. His strikeout % did come down some, so that's good and contributed somewhat to that jump in BA. But look at his line-drive rate, and he basically hit the same number of line drives as always. Look at his BABIP, though, and it was .394, which is basically unsustainable for anybody. Sure enough, his BABIP came back down the next year and he was terrible, and the Braves were stuck overpaying a bad player.

Here's the deal, though - that .394 was actually not as 'lucky' for Chris Johnson as it would be for somebody like Bryce Harper. Chris Johnson's career BABIP is .353 compared to Harper's .320. Why? Mostly because Chris Johnson hits 25% more line drives than Harper does, while Harper hits more fly balls, especially infield fly balls, which are obviously not good for your BABIP. So if a hitter has a BABIP of .350, that seems high. But you have to have more information before determining that it was 'lucky'. If it's Chris Johnson, he'll probably sustain that. If it's Bryce Harper, he probably won't.

BABIP doesn't assume anything. It's just a calculation. That calculation has to be used correctly, but absolutely is valuable and would have saved the Braves some wasted money. It's one of the best things the new metric wave in baseball analytics has produced.

I knew you couldn't resist. You also were banging that drum that Gridley wasn't an SEC SS. You gonna hang tough with your bro on this subject like the old days or you gonna choose Gridley too?

[I seen it dawg]

Luke's problem is he can't hit Charley. He is a decent fastball hitter, but he usual lets the first fastball go by or he misses it. Then he doesn't have the patience to lay off sliders. He has gotten better this year by going oppo. At best he is a 250 hitter. But sometimes a productive 250 is better that a 300 hitter that sucks with runners is scoring position. with all that said he is 2nd in SEC in HRs by a SS. He has won us some games with His Bat. We don't have Gridley-so what is the point? And if Pilk pitched on Sunday's we would have won more series. Pride goith before the fall. the object is 2 win 2 out of 3--so be a little creative.

May want to hang on the outskirts of this one lest you get some on you.

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

Luke's problem is he can't hit Charley. He is a decent fastball hitter, but he usual lets the first fastball go by or he misses it. Then he doesn't have the patience to lay off sliders. He has gotten better this year by going oppo. At best he is a 250 hitter. But sometimes a productive 250 is better that a 300 hitter that sucks with runners is scoring position. with all that said he is 2nd in SEC in HRs by a SS. He has won us some games with His Bat. We don't have Gridley-so what is the point? And if Pilk pitched on Sunday's we would have won more series. Pride goith before the fall. the object is 2 win 2 out of 3--so be a little creative.


May want to hang on the outskirts of this one lest you get some on you.
Yea, ISID is starting to really jerk himself off In this thread. I too suggest you duck out while you can

[JumpKing]

Are you Gridley's daddy or something? You have 7 posts and all 7 of them are pimping or defending Gridley in one way or another. Talk about irony, this certainly is funny stuff

Just a Georgia boy who would've loved to see Gridley here.

[I seen it dawg]

Just a Georgia boy who would've loved to see Gridley here.

So you're a Georgia Bulldog?

[msstate7]

Just a Georgia boy who would've loved to see Gridley here.

And yet you say that I have gone after gridley for years. You've perused this board for years as a Georgia fan and followed Luke Alexander's career? Yeah, ok... everyone here's C34's new name or ISID's 3rd personality. I lean split personalities... strange

[smootness]

I knew you couldn't resist. You also were banging that drum that Gridley wasn't an SEC SS. You gonna hang tough with your bro on this subject like the old days or you gonna choose Gridley too?

My post did not mention Gridley or have anything to do with him. I just wanted to discuss what BABIP is and isn?t.

Gridley was better last year than Alexander has ever been, that is obvious.

[I seen it dawg]

And yet you say that I have gone after gridley for years. You've perused this board for years as a Georgia fan and followed Luke Alexander's career? Yeah, ok... everyone here's C34's new name or ISID's 3rd personality. I lean split personalities... strange

Lol you keep rolling this dumb shit out there bc you got nothing else. You chose Gridley. And have been given a plethora of information to show you finally got something right.

[Bulldog1]

And yet you say that I have gone after gridley for years. You've perused this board for years as a Georgia fan and followed Luke Alexander's career? Yeah, ok... everyone here's C34's new name or ISID's 3rd personality. I lean split personalities... strange

No way this is 34's Alter.

[I seen it dawg]

My post did not mention Gridley or have anything to do with him. I just wanted to discuss what BABIP is and isn?t.

Gridley was better last year than Alexander has ever been, that is obvious.

Fair enough. But i do vividly remember you on the bandwagon with mstate0

[smootness]

Fair enough. But i do vividly remember you on the bandwagon with mstate0

I always thought Alexander was better defensively than Gridley. That is something that can’t ever really be proven. Gridley turned into a very good hitter last year and was huge for us, something Alexander has never been. So in terms of who is better, Gridley wins easily at this point. In terms of who is better defensively, who really cares. Gridley deserved to be All-SEC SS.

[msstate7]

No way this is 34's Alter.

Maybe, maybe not... c34 and ISID have multiple user names and have for years.

[Bulldog1]

Maybe, maybe not... c34 and ISID have multiple user names and have for years.

I might be the only one, but I don't believe that ISID and Ari are the same person.

[yjnkdawg]

I might be the only one, but I don't believe that ISID and Ari are the same person.


I have never even heard that possibility mentioned on ED. Add one more to the "I don't believe."

[I seen it dawg]

Maybe, maybe not... c34 and ISID have multiple user names and have for years.

Just keep hanging on to it. Back to being wrong again. Better yet let's have some fun...out all my alter user names

[msstate7]

Just keep hanging on to it. Back to being wrong again.

Those 2 above me may not know the truth, but I do. You know it too

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

Just a Georgia boy who would've loved to see Gridley here.

https://media3.giphy.com/media/Nn2wW3g0hwDEA/giphy.gif

So you're a Georgia fan who happens to like Gridley to the point that you still come to MSU boards to knight for him a year after he's gone? Alter confirmed.

[I seen it dawg]

Those 2 above me may not know the truth, but I do. You know it too

Spit out the truth you think we both know. Let's go and get it out there. Or are you as sure about this as you have been that Gridley was not an SEC SS...

[Bulldog1]

Those 2 above me may not know the truth, but I do. You know it too
What makes you say that?

[Todd4State]

It really isn't.

There is luck inherent in baseball. Everyone should understand that. There are 9 defensive players placed in various positions around the field, and a ball hit against one team in one alignment could fall for a hit where it wouldn't against another team in another alignment. Similarly, a player could get a hit precisely because they mishit a ball and it dropped in where if they had hit it more square it would have been caught. That's just the way baseball works.

BABIP tells you very little as a number on its own except that you can always assume the true outliers (anything north of .380 or so or south of .250ish can be considered lucky/unlucky to some degree pretty much across the board and due for regression). But it definitely does help when taking a look at a player's batted ball profile (basically the number of line drives or pop-ups, etc.) and comparing it to their career norms.

If a player hits a lot of line drives, they are more likely to end up with a higher BABIP. If that player also strikes out an average amount or better, you can expect them to have a very good BA. If they don't have a high BA, it is likely due to a low BABIP and probably a result of some bad luck. If that player continues to hit the same number of line drives and strike out the same amount, you can expect that BA to increase. In the same way, if a player strikes out a lot or doesn't hit all that many line drives but has a high BA, it is likely because they have a higher-than-normal BABIP and probably a result of good luck. If they keep striking out the same amount and hitting the same number of line drives, you can expect their BA to start to come down.

Take Chris Johnson in 2013 for Atlanta. A career .280 hitter suddenly jumped up to .321 and nearly led the league. The Braves signed him to an extension that offseason for several years thinking he had become a better hitter. But had he? To have a better idea, you need to look at more numbers. His strikeout % did come down some, so that's good and contributed somewhat to that jump in BA. But look at his line-drive rate, and he basically hit the same number of line drives as always. Look at his BABIP, though, and it was .394, which is basically unsustainable for anybody. Sure enough, his BABIP came back down the next year and he was terrible, and the Braves were stuck overpaying a bad player.

Here's the deal, though - that .394 was actually not as 'lucky' for Chris Johnson as it would be for somebody like Bryce Harper. Chris Johnson's career BABIP is .353 compared to Harper's .320. Why? Mostly because Chris Johnson hits 25% more line drives than Harper does, while Harper hits more fly balls, especially infield fly balls, which are obviously not good for your BABIP. So if a hitter has a BABIP of .350, that seems high. But you have to have more information before determining that it was 'lucky'. If it's Chris Johnson, he'll probably sustain that. If it's Bryce Harper, he probably won't.

BABIP doesn't assume anything. It's just a calculation. That calculation has to be used correctly, but absolutely is valuable and would have saved the Braves some wasted money. It's one of the best things the new metric wave in baseball analytics has produced.

I get all of that. The thing I don't like about it is I think it assumes too much luck. I think at the MLB level especially there is less luck involved because of all of the defensive scouting reports that tell teams where a guy is going to hit a ball, scouting reports on how to pitch someone, etc. I think at the MLB level a lot of the changes are more of a result of the player's skill and hard work/adjustments that are made but aren't seen because they occur watching film, in the batting cage/tunnel, etc. And I think a lot of the people that come up with stuff like this don't understand that and so they explain it as "luck" and it makes it sound like baseball is some totally random game of chance or at least more like a game of chance than it actually is.

Baseball at the MLB level is a constant cat and mouse game of making adjustments if you want to stay there vs. go play in NOLA for a team called the Baby Cakes. I think those adjustments count for more of the "regression" and "better luck" than that the people that came up with that stat realize.

[I seen it dawg]

Don't quit now mstate0 you were doing so good

[tcdog70]

May want to hang on the outskirts of this one lest you get some on you.

ha, I guess since 34 is down the tubes-you are pinch hitting for him in post baiting. Good job--you would be Luke and 34 would be Gridley in this scenario. Being a Dick must be high on your agenda. i guess since you were a all field no hit JUCO ball player you are omnipotent.

[I seen it dawg]

ha, I guess since 34 is down the tubes-you are pinch hitting for him in post baiting. Good job--you would be Luke and 34 would be Gridley in this scenario. Being a Dick must be high on your agenda. i guess since you were a all field no hit JUCO ball player you are omnipotent.

Why don't you just say something bad about my mama. And if it was post baiting then well...you got baited. How’s that make you feel?

[Bulldog1]

Is it ironic Alexander's number is 7? Just kidding.

[smootness]

I get all of that. The thing I don't like about it is I think it assumes too much luck. I think at the MLB level especially there is less luck involved because of all of the defensive scouting reports that tell teams where a guy is going to hit a ball, scouting reports on how to pitch someone, etc. I think at the MLB level a lot of the changes are more of a result of the player's skill and hard work/adjustments that are made but aren't seen because they occur watching film, in the batting cage/tunnel, etc. And I think a lot of the people that come up with stuff like this don't understand that and so they explain it as "luck" and it makes it sound like baseball is some totally random game of chance or at least more like a game of chance than it actually is.

Baseball at the MLB level is a constant cat and mouse game of making adjustments if you want to stay there vs. go play in NOLA for a team called the Baby Cakes. I think those adjustments count for more of the "regression" and "better luck" than that the people that came up with that stat realize.

But luck is not a thing baked into the stat, that's my point. People can try to figure out why numbers regress, but the numbers absolutely do regress. That has been proven.

So you look at a statement saying, 'Player A has a BABIP of .400, which is due for regression because he has had some good luck,' and take issue with it because you think he has made adjustments that have given him a better chance for hits to fall in instead of just pure luck. But the explanation for why the player is due for regression doesn't really matter. The fact is that the player is absolutely due for regression because they have run numbers on every player ever and that is what happens. And in every instance that player regresses.

So the explanation for why doesn't matter. All we want to know is whether it is sustainable or not. You believe those numbers eventually come down because pitchers/defenses adjust back. That doesn't really seem nearly as good an explanation as some level of pure luck to me, but regardless, those numbers absolutely are due for regression.

And yes, BABIP is a skill. It is not purely luck, and no one who knows what they're talking about views it that way. Players can be better than others at sustaining a high BABIP. It's because they hit more line drives, hit fewer fly balls, and tend to make hard contact more consistently, among other things. That's why you see some players with a career BABIP of .280 and others at .350.

But BABIP is just one portion of how a player gets to a certain BA and one factor that goes into their offensive production. Even with a lower BABIP, a player can be a very good offensive player if they walk a good bit, don't strike out, and hit with power. You seem to think that when someone says, 'Player A's BABIP is abnormally high, which means they've been a bit lucky and are due for some regression,' they're saying, 'Player A is not actually good. That is a mirage and I can't explain it so it must be that they are lucky.' But in reality all they're saying is, 'Player A has been very good so far and probably won't sustain quite that level going forward, but still may continue to be very good.'

I can tell you that it has been proven that those who use BABIP as a tool are right way more often in terms of who will sustain what production than those who believe BABIP is meaningless and all good success is driven by genuine improvement.

[msstate7]

Is it ironic Alexander's number is 7? Just kidding.

I've been msstate7 since nick turner was at state. Back on genespage

[Bulldog1]

I've been msstate7 since nick turner was at state. Back on genespage

I was joking.

[I seen it dawg]

Touchy. Fending off those 2 posters with all those usernames.

[tcdog70]

Why don't you just say something bad about my mama. And if it was post baiting then well...you got baited. How’s that make you feel?

i'm sure your Mama is a nice Lady. I actually feel ok, thanks for asking.

[Todd4State]

But luck is not a thing baked into the stat, that's my point. People can try to figure out why numbers regress, but the numbers absolutely do regress. That has been proven.

So you look at a statement saying, 'Player A has a BABIP of .400, which is due for regression because he has had some good luck,' and take issue with it because you think he has made adjustments that have given him a better chance for hits to fall in instead of just pure luck. But the explanation for why the player is due for regression doesn't really matter. The fact is that the player is absolutely due for regression because they have run numbers on every player ever and that is what happens. And in every instance that player regresses.

So the explanation for why doesn't matter. All we want to know is whether it is sustainable or not. You believe those numbers eventually come down because pitchers/defenses adjust back. That doesn't really seem nearly as good an explanation as some level of pure luck to me, but regardless, those numbers absolutely are due for regression.

And yes, BABIP is a skill. It is not purely luck, and no one who knows what they're talking about views it that way. Players can be better than others at sustaining a high BABIP. It's because they hit more line drives, hit fewer fly balls, and tend to make hard contact more consistently, among other things. That's why you see some players with a career BABIP of .280 and others at .350.

But BABIP is just one portion of how a player gets to a certain BA and one factor that goes into their offensive production. Even with a lower BABIP, a player can be a very good offensive player if they walk a good bit, don't strike out, and hit with power. You seem to think that when someone says, 'Player A's BABIP is abnormally high, which means they've been a bit lucky and are due for some regression,' they're saying, 'Player A is not actually good. That is a mirage and I can't explain it so it must be that they are lucky.' But in reality all they're saying is, 'Player A has been very good so far and probably won't sustain quite that level going forward, but still may continue to be very good.'

I can tell you that it has been proven that those who use BABIP as a tool are right way more often in terms of who will sustain what production than those who believe BABIP is meaningless and all good success is driven by genuine improvement.

This is exactly my point. I don't think fans understand just how hard these guys work and have to work to stay at the MLB level. I think people would be surprised at how much goes on behind the scenes. I also don't like the things that BABIP excludes such as home runs. I'm also not sure how useful it will be long term because most of the analytic people are using more useful data such as spray charts that also take into account defensive positioning and are using how hard a player hits a ball to determine why a hitter is struggling or not. There is a reason why you don't see BABIP on a typical scoreboard at a MLB park despite the fact you will see things like OPS, OB%, WHIP, and etc.

The only time it seems useful is if you are trying to convince people on a MSU message board that a player that hasn't hit in his career will suddenly start hitting at some point.

[basedog]

The only time it seems useful is if you are trying to convince people on a MSU message board that a player that hasn't hit in his career will suddenly start hitting at some point.

Big +1

[msstate7]

The only time it seems useful is if you are trying to convince people on a MSU message board that a player that hasn't hit in his career will suddenly start hitting at some point.

Big +1

Or when some of us here said Jake wouldn't hit .400 again after his freshman year. I'm not as big on BABIP as some, but it is foolish to totally discount it