Bracketologists giving mixed signals

[Coach34]

Lunardi has Georgia as the 8th team out over us:

We beat them
We have a higher RPI
We have a better SEC record

Florida in as a 7 seed- a 7 seed- lower RPI than us currently and tied with us in the standings

A&M is a 9 seed that is slowly playing their way out of the Tourney.

There are so many teams lumped together fighting for a spot in the Tourney- the next 3 games will cause some major movement. We just have to keep winning and play our way in

[smootness]

The committee historically frowns on major conference teams who schedule so weakly in the OOC. That is probably what Lunardi is taking into account. If we win out, we have a good chance at getting into the Tourney. But it is not a given even then.

[QuadrupleOption]

The committee historically frowns on major conference teams who schedule so weakly in the OOC. That is probably what Lunardi is taking into account. If we win out, we have a good chance at getting into the Tourney. But it is not a given even then.

So how does that jibe with the fact that our RPI is better than two teams he has projected as tourney teams? If we get left out of the NCAAT with a better record and better RPI than two teams who make it, then it's rigged.

We win out, we're in. There's no way they could justify leaving us out.

[bullygrowl]

I'm not sure what I'm even looking at, but, it shows us as an 11 seed. I looked at a few other teams listed in this BPI resume and they aligned closely with the seeding in Lunardi's bracket. Hey just searching for good news:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/resume

[smootness]

So how does that jibe with the fact that our RPI is better than two teams he has projected as tourney teams? If we get left out of the NCAAT with a better record and better RPI than two teams who make it, then it's rigged.

We win out, we're in. There's no way they could justify leaving us out.

Because the committee doesn't just look at RPI? That should be clear. It is a very important factor, no doubt. But they absolutely do not like when teams schedule extremely weak in the OOC. And that is what we did. We have an uphill climb compared to many others.

[Ari Gold]

Lunardi has Georgia as the 8th team out over us:

We beat them
We have a higher RPI
We have a better SEC record

Florida in as a 7 seed- a 7 seed- lower RPI than us currently and tied with us in the standings

A&M is a 9 seed that is slowly playing their way out of the Tourney.

There are so many teams lumped together fighting for a spot in the Tourney- the next 3 games will cause some major movement. We just have to keep winning and play our way in

Joey Brackets has us next four out last night. Replacing UGA.

[smootness]

Florida is actually a very good comparison right now. I disagree with Lunardi that they're a 7 but they would probably get in right now.

They have the exact same 2 bad losses that we have. And in terms of good wins, we both won @A&M. They also beat Arkansas and Missouri, though their Missouri win came on the road. Then we won at home against Alabama, compared to them beating Cincinnati and @Kentucky. Those two wins are clearly superior to anything we have in comparison.

Also, while they have more losses, 3 of those are against top 11 RPI teams, including 2 OOC - Duke and Clemson. They also beat us H2H and have 5 wins in the 51-100 range compared to our 2.

So yes, they have a worse record and a slightly worse RPI. We are both 8-7 in conference. But their far better OOC scheduling and better wins are putting them ahead of us.

[smootness]

Joey Brackets has us next four out last night. Replacing UGA.

Where are you seeing that? I'm still seeing UGA there.

[CapitalCityDawg]

Lunardi has Georgia as the 8th team out over us:

We beat them
We have a higher RPI
We have a better SEC record

Florida in as a 7 seed- a 7 seed- lower RPI than us currently and tied with us in the standings

A&M is a 9 seed that is slowly playing their way out of the Tourney.

There are so many teams lumped together fighting for a spot in the Tourney- the next 3 games will cause some major movement. We just have to keep winning and play our way in

Say it slow with me. CONFERENCE. STANDINGS. DO. NOT. MATTER...... when the board realizes this, we can focus on what it?s going to take. Just keep winning baby.

[Coach34]

Joey Brackets has us next four out last night. Replacing UGA.

not according to the one of ESPN this morning-updated 2/22

[Coach34]

Say it slow with me. CONFERENCE. STANDINGS. DO. NOT. MATTER...... when the board realizes this, we can focus on what it?s going to take. Just keep winning baby.

Palm has LSU in the hunt- these ****ers have no idea what’s going on

[Ari Gold]

not according to the one of ESPN this morning-updated 2/22

I don’t think they have updated that yet. Even tho it says 2/22.. last night we were next 4 out after the UGA loss

[Ari Gold]

Say it slow with me. CONFERENCE. STANDINGS. DO. NOT. MATTER...... when the board realizes this, we can focus on what it?s going to take. Just keep winning baby.

If you don’t think it is a factor then ok.
So a team with a RPI of 39 is automatically in right?
Wrong. That’s Buffalo. If they don’t win their conference tourney I will bet anyone on here they don’t make it.

Say it with me... all we are saying is that if anyone doesn’t think that a 11-7 conference record and finishing in the top 4 of SEC this year isn’t a HUGE factor becuse it is. And it will be taken into consideration wethere the committee comes out and says it or not.

[tcdog70]

just win the next 3 and we will be Dancing--book it

[msudawglb]

Because the committee doesn't just look at RPI? That should be clear. It is a very important factor, no doubt. But they absolutely do not like when teams schedule extremely weak in the OOC. And that is what we did. We have an uphill climb compared to many others.

At least we played a top 25 ranked team in our OOC play. Auburn did not. It really makes no sense to me. We could have schedule Duke and lost to them by 30 and we would be either in the tourney or on the bubble now.

[Bulldog1]

34, sticky this thread so we can throw it back up on selection Sunday. They will not leave us out with a 11-7 record

[CapitalCityDawg]

If you don?t think it is a factor then ok.
So a team with a RPI of 39 is automatically in right?
Wrong. That?s Buffalo. If they don?t win their conference tourney I will bet anyone on here they don?t make it.

Say it with me... all we are saying is that if anyone doesn?t think that a 11-7 conference record and finishing in the top 4 of SEC this year isn?t a HUGE factor becuse it is. And it will be taken into consideration wethere the committee comes out and says it or not.

You?re cherry picking. What?s their SOS? Similar to ours I?m sure.

[smootness]

At least we played a top 25 ranked team in our OOC play. Auburn did not. It really makes no sense to me. We could have schedule Duke and lost to them by 30 and we would be either in the tourney or on the bubble now.

And if we were 24-4, no one would be questioning whether we are in the Tourney or not. I don't understand the comparison to them. They have a much better resume than we do.

[msudawglb]

And if we were 24-4, no one would be questioning whether we are in the Tourney or not. I don't understand the comparison to them. They have a much better resume than we do.

ha, I'm not saying Auburn shouldn't be in the tourney. Goodness. But, they are a #2 with that 24-4 record and no OOC games against ranked opponents. If we had of beaten Ole Miss, Missouri, and Vandy, we would be 23-5....and I guaran_damn_tee you that we would not be sniffing a #2 seed. Heck, we would be about a #10 seed.

[Pipedream]

34, sticky this thread so we can throw it back up on selection Sunday. They will not leave us out with a 11-7 record

I don't think we'll get left out at 11-7 either, BUT for those that are cherry picking just RPI or just BPI to do a side by side comparison with other teams, that's just not how it works. It's a combination of RPI, KPI, SOR, BPI, KenPom, and Sagarin. They are looking at both results based and predictive metrics. The reason I don't think we'll get left out at 11-7 has nothing to do with where it puts us inside the conference and everything to do with our placement in those collective rankings. Again, if you're quoting conference standings as any kind of barometer, you're beating a dead horse. Also this site is a good reference for any bracketology interests: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

They have us as the fourth team out which sounds about right.

[dawgs]

What’s frustrating is that if we’d simply schedule a bunch of 100-200 RPI teams instead of 200+ RPI teams, our SOS probably wouldn’t be that bad. At least not glaringly so to the point it’s cited as a reason to keep us out of the tourney. We knew we were scheduling a bunch of really bad programs that had little chance of ranking higher than 200 in RPI. We still wouldn’t have any great OOC Ws, but we’d wouldn’t stand out as having an exceptionally weak OOC SOS either, which may be the difference with 90% of the conference tied in the standings.

[smootness]

ha, I'm not saying Auburn shouldn't be in the tourney. Goodness. But, they are a #2 with that 24-4 record and no OOC games against ranked opponents. If we had of beaten Ole Miss, Missouri, and Vandy, we would be 23-5....and I guaran_damn_tee you that we would not be sniffing a #2 seed. Heck, we would be about a #10 seed.

And there are reasons for that. And those reasons aren't 'They're biased against Mississippi State.'

Our RPI in that case would probably be something like 30 or so. Which is really good. Auburn's is 7. So why is that?

Well, our good wins would be as follows:
@#26
#30
#35
#40
@#40

Our bad losses are:
#107
@#111

Auburn's good wins are:
@#11
#16
#22
#30
#35
@#40

Their bad losses are:
#73

Their SOS is also #40, compared to our #95. Why? Because, while they didn't play a bunch of great teams in the OOC, they also didn't play the ton of terrible teams we did.

We played the following in the OOC:
#196
#214
#218
#220
#311
#313
#331
#334
#341
We played three teams in the top 195 in the country in the OOC.

Auburn, meanwhile, played #181, #189, #199, #237, #262, and #274. Those are their worst 6 in the OOC. Which, by the way, is not good. They are being penalized some for their lack of quality OOC opponents. And yet their OOC schedule was infinitely better than ours. There are only 351 teams in D1, so we played 3 of the worst 21 and 5 of the worst 41. That is awful.

[smootness]

What’s frustrating is that if we’d simply schedule a bunch of 100-200 RPI teams instead of 200+ RPI teams, our SOS probably wouldn’t be that bad. At least not glaringly so to the point it’s cited as a reason to keep us out of the tourney. We knew we were scheduling a bunch of really bad programs that had little chance of ranking higher than 200 in RPI. We still wouldn’t have any great OOC Ws, but we’d wouldn’t stand out as having an exceptionally weak OOC SOS either, which may be the difference with 90% of the conference tied in the standings.

Correct. Change our 5 sub-300 RPI games to 5 around 200, and we are likely firmly in the Tourney right now.

[Bulldog1]

not according to the one of ESPN this morning-updated 2/22

The next four out/ last four out haven’t been updated on the site yet. That’s the same one that was there Monday.

[confucius say]

Bracketmatrix is the best site for this bc it shows all the brackets and when they were last updated, and gives you an average based on all the brackets. Has us in first four out.

Stop being sheep who think the committee is going to go by, and only by, the sheet they released. We go 11-7 and finish second we good.

SOS is a big part of RPI. Citing both as reasons to support an argument is duplicative. Our RPI is low bc of our SOS. You don?t get dinged for bad SOS twice.

We also picked up two quadrant 1 wins yesterday without playing, as USCe moved into top 75 and Bama into top 30.

[Ari Gold]

Bracketmatrix is the best site for this bc it shows all the brackets and when they were last updated, and gives you an average based on all the brackets. Has us in first four out.

Stop being sheep who think the committee is going to go by, and only by, the sheet they released. We go 11-7 and finish second we good.

SOS is a big part of RPI. Citing both as reasons to support an argument is duplicative. Our RPI is low bc of our SOS. You don?t get dinged for bad SOS twice.

We also picked up two quadrant 1 wins yesterday without playing, as USCe moved into top 75 and Bama into top 30.

Exacatly... and BPI > RPI