What an SEC mess heading into tomorrow and Saturday

[Coach34]

If Bama loses at Auburn tomorrow and Florida loses at Tennessee- which they should- there will be an incredible tie in the middle of the SEC with 3 games left.

All of these teams will be 8-7 in the SEC with 3 games left:

State
Bama
Florida
Kentucky
UPig
Mizzou

2 of those teams are racing to finish in the top 4 of the SEC. We go 3-0? 1 of the top 4 is us. Top 4 in the SEC means we are NCAA-bound

[Pipedream]

Look I wanna make the tournament too but what place we finish in the league will have absolutely zero bearing on whether we make it or not. Educate yourself https://t.co/x4VZjsy6yv

[Ari Gold]

If Bama loses at Auburn tomorrow and Florida loses at Tennessee- which they should- there will be an incredible tie in the middle of the SEC with 3 games left.

All of these teams will be 8-7 in the SEC with 3 games left:

State
Bama
Florida
Kentucky
UPig
Mizzou

2 of those teams are racing to finish in the top 4 of the SEC. We go 3-0? 1 of the top 4 is us. Top 4 in the SEC means we are NCAA-bound

And we have the best remaining schedule of these teams.. outside chance at 3rd and still a ****ing shot at 2nd .. that’s ****ing crazy

[Dawg61]

In case anyone is wondering the SECT seeding tiebreaker when a bunch of teams are tied like this is record vs all tied teams so in this scenario we are 3-4 vs those 5 teams. So we don't want to be tied it won't help us.

[Ari Gold]

Look I wanna make the tournament too but what place we finish in the league will have absolutely zero bearing on whether we make it or not. Educate yourself https://t.co/x4VZjsy6yv


What a few here are saying is that if the SEC gets in 8 even 7 teams like EVERYONE has said we are for over a month now , and we finish top 4 it’s going to be almost impossible to take 4 or 5 teams in over us . If the committee only takes 5 or 6 teams then yeah we are probably left out, unless we win a game maybe 2 in the tourney .
We keep wining other sec teams will be losing , we keep playing ourselves in other teams keep playing their way out.

Basically we are using common sense. Palm can say last 10- 15 games don’t matter whatever. Joey Brackets just referenced AM and Oklahoma playing their way out of the tourney because how they have played last couple of weeks. So common sense tells you that their last 10 games or so means a lot.

[Ari Gold]

In case anyone is wondering the SECT seeding tiebreaker when a bunch of teams are tied like this is record vs all tied teams so in this scenario we are 3-4 vs those 5 teams. So we don't want to be tied it won't help us.

All these teams play a couple of teams in this bunch .We won’t be tied with anyone if we win out if my math is correct.

[Coach34]

Look I wanna make the tournament too but what place we finish in the league will have absolutely zero bearing on whether we make it or not. Educate yourself https://t.co/x4VZjsy6yv

I'm educated enough. If we finish top 4 in the SEC- we are in. The committee will not take 3-4 SEC teams over the team that finished 4th- I promise you.

Top 4 in a top RPI conference
Great record the last 12 games
No bad losses

We will be in

[Bulldog1]

Look I wanna make the tournament too but what place we finish in the league will have absolutely zero bearing on whether we make it or not. Educate yourself https://t.co/x4VZjsy6yv

It’s common sense that they’re not skipping us to put 4 other teams in the tourney. No way. If the SEC gets 8 in like people claim, they’re not leaving a top 4 team out.

[Pipedream]

What a few here are saying is that if the SEC gets in 8 even 7 teams like EVERYONE has said we are for over a month now , and we finish top 4 it?s going to be almost impossible to take 4 or 5 teams in over us . If the committee only takes 5 or 6 teams then yeah we are probably left out, unless we win a game maybe 2 in the tourney .
We keep wining other sec teams will be losing , we keep playing ourselves in other teams keep playing their way out.

Basically we are using common sense. Palm can say last 10- 15 games don?t matter whatever. Joey Brackets just referenced AM and Oklahoma playing their way out of the tourney because how they have played last couple of weeks. So common sense tells you that their last 10 games or so means a lot.

I fully understand the logic, but it's not going to be taken into consideration. They evaluate off of those resume sheets and conference record, standing, nor last 10 games is criteria they use. Palm isn't just making this up. The NCAA released this info to him. I still think we have a really good chance of making it, but some of the things y'all are citing won't be a factor.

[Quaoarsking]

It’s common sense that they’re not skipping us to put 4 other teams in the tourney. No way. If the SEC gets 8 in like people claim, they’re not leaving a top 4 team out.

In 2011 they left out 12-4 Alabama but took 10-6 Kentucky, 9-7 Vanderbilt, 9-7 Georgia, and 8-8 Tennessee.

Just saying it can happen.

[TXDawg]

I'm educated enough. If we finish top 4 in the SEC- we are in. The committee will not take 3-4 SEC teams over the team that finished 4th- I promise you.

Top 4 in a top RPI conference
Great record the last 12 games
No bad losses

We will be in

Is Vandy not considered a bad loss? I know it was on the road, but in my mind it was a REALLY bad loss.

[msstate7]

I fully understand the logic, but it's not going to be taken into consideration. They evaluate off of those resume sheets and conference record, standing, nor last 10 games is criteria they use. Palm isn't just making this up. The NCAA released this info to him. I still think we have a really good chance of making it, but some of the things y'all are citing won't be a factor.

If you concede conference record will be considered, it stands to reason that finish is considered. For example, if the NCAA is considering aTm (7-11) vs state (11-7)... any idiot can see that we finished much higher in sec standing than aTm whether they look at the standings or not. Now state vs western Kentucky, the finish in sec is probably not considered

[msstate7]

In 2011 they left out 12-4 Alabama but took 10-6 Kentucky, 9-7 Vanderbilt, 9-7 Georgia, and 8-8 Tennessee.

Just saying it can happen.

In 2011, there were divisions. I will bet that the west side was garbage in 2011

[Quaoarsking]

In 2011, there were divisions. I will bet that the west side was garbage in 2011

No doubt. But the key takeaway is that the Committee skipped a team in favor of 4 teams with a worse conference record due to SOS issues this decade in the 68 team era. We shouldn't pretend like it's impossible that it could happen again.

[Bulldog1]

I’ve seen on other boards people saying Howland has pull with the committee. Is that a factor?

[MetEdDawg]

I’ve seen on other boards people saying Howland has pull with the committee. Is that a factor?

You bet it does. They will pump the Howland story pretty good. I've got to imagine if we finish 3-0 and get the double bye they can't possibly leave us out. And I think Howland being our coach is going to help that. In the minds of that committee, you have to think the name Ben Howland is going to cross their mind at some point.

[drunkernhelldawg]

One fun fact is that in our Final Four year (1996), we lost to a weak Ole Miss team late in the season and put into question whether we'd make the tourney. Of course, beating KY in the SECT put that question to rest. (It was already at rest as we were already a lock by that time)/

This team is pretty good. I like our chances against anybody.

[Pipedream]

If you concede conference record will be considered, it stands to reason that finish is considered. For example, if the NCAA is considering aTm (7-11) vs state (11-7)... any idiot can see that we finished much higher in sec standing than aTm whether they look at the standings or not. Now state vs western Kentucky, the finish in sec is probably not considered

I do not concede that. It's not considered. Check the link.

[Liverpooldawg]

Look I wanna make the tournament too but what place we finish in the league will have absolutely zero bearing on whether we make it or not. Educate yourself https://t.co/x4VZjsy6yv

Yep.

[fishwater99]

Win next 3 and 1 in SECT and we are in.... PERIOD.... Winning will take care of everything..

[msstate7]

I do not concede that. It's not considered. Check the link.

Conference record means nothing? I think that link is garbage then personally. Lunardi said last night only once in modern era has a team under 4 games in conference made the tourney. aTm could very well end up 7-11 with a good rpi... good thing the committee does not even look at conference record

[Dawg61]

I do not concede that. It's not considered. Check the link.

The committee is just covering their asses. There will be major issues if for example they take a 6-12 Texas A&M team over an 11-7 MSU team that beat them on the road and finished much higher in the SEC standings. Just won't happen. You can point to one link all you like but the committee has common sense and they would know that would be a disaster for them.

[Bulldog1]

The committee is just covering their asses. There will be major issues if for example they take a 6-12 Texas A&M team over an 11-7 MSU team that beat them on the road and finished much higher in the SEC standings. Just won't happen. You can point to one link all you like but the committee has common sense and they would know that would be a disaster for them.

If that happened, we’d all be on the phone with the committee lol

[Covercorner2]

In 2011 they left out 12-4 Alabama but took 10-6 Kentucky, 9-7 Vanderbilt, 9-7 Georgia, and 8-8 Tennessee.

Just saying it can happen.

Wasn't the field smaller then?

[Ari Gold]

In 2011 they left out 12-4 Alabama but took 10-6 Kentucky, 9-7 Vanderbilt, 9-7 Georgia, and 8-8 Tennessee.

Just saying it can happen.

Agree. But they only took 5 teams that year which I said if that happens this year taking 5 or even 6 we would be in trouble.
And this was the old east and west format.
And to add the field was smaller then as well

[RougeDawg]

Win next 3 and 1 in SECT and we are in.... PERIOD.... Winning will take care of everything..

2-1 and maybe 1 in tourney to seal the deal. This team looks like a top 40 team. No way we are left out with a 10-8 record and nice showing in SEC Tourney.

[Coach34]

winning cures all. Handle our bidness and enjoy being home for a week

[Pipedream]

Conference record means nothing? I think that link is garbage then personally. Lunardi said last night only once in modern era has a team under 4 games in conference made the tourney. aTm could very well end up 7-11 with a good rpi... good thing the committee does not even look at conference record

No. It means absolutely nothing to the committee. They care about conference SOS, but not record. Doesn't really matter what you nor anyone else thinks about the info, but it's factual. A&M is safely in right now due to their metrics. It's a numbers game. RPI, KPI, SOR, BPI, KenPom, Sagarin are the important ones then they go from there with SOS, noncon SOS, quadrant wins. It's a whole new set up this year.

[curmudgeon]

Look I wanna make the tournament too but what place we finish in the league will have absolutely zero bearing on whether we make it or not. Educate yourself https://t.co/x4VZjsy6yv

It does matter historically.

Only twice has a Power Conference team been skipped over to pick up two teams. Never has a Power Conference team been skipped over to pick up three teams. If we finish 4th, they aren't going to skip over us to pick up FIVE teams.

Think about it like this.

If we go 11-7, we are likely 3rd or 4th in the SEC. Texas A&M, a LOCK for the tournament is likely to go 8-10.

So, when you are the committee and you are looking at it, you have to say, are we going to leave out a team that finished THREE GAMES better AND beat them on the road? No? Go look at the USC team that was 68th in the RPI and made it. Same situation - finished 4th in a good Pac 12 that got 7 bids.

[Pipedream]

It does matter historically.

Only twice has a Power Conference team been skipped over to pick up two teams. Never has a Power Conference team been skipped over to pick up three teams. If we finish 4th, they aren't going to skip over us to pick up FIVE teams.

Look I'm no bracketologist, but I can read. The NCAA released a sheet that actually shows the criteria they are looking at for each team. Each committee member is going to get a sheet just like that one for every team. Nowhere on that sheet is conference record nor conference finish. I understand trying to compare historical context, but this is a new set up this year. Would it look bad if A&M got in over State looking at conference records and head to head results? Absolutely. But they don't really care what it looks like. There's always massive debate on the last couple of teams in and this new system is trying to provide transparency.

[MeridianDog]

Most certain way to make the tournament is to keep winning. To lose casts doubts and we don't need to be trying to work up scenarios where we lose and still make it. The best pathway to the NCAA tournament is the one where we win out.

[Coach34]

It does matter historically.

So, when you are the committee and you are looking at it, you have to say, are we going to leave out a team that finished THREE GAMES better AND beat them on the road? No? Go look at the USC team that was 68th in the RPI and made it. Same situation - finished 4th in a good Pac 12 that got 7 bids.

people just dont want to accept facts sometime do they 615?

[MadDawg]

people just dont want to accept facts sometime do they 615?

I don't think there has been a single "fact" not accepted. Opinions, well, they're a different animal altogether.

[Coach34]

In 2011 they left out 12-4 Alabama but took 10-6 Kentucky, 9-7 Vanderbilt, 9-7 Georgia, and 8-8 Tennessee.

Just saying it can happen.

In 2011- the SEC was 6th in RPI as a conference. SEC is 3rd this year in conference RPI

[Quaoarsking]

In 2011- the SEC was 6th in RPI as a conference. SEC is 3rd this year in conference RPI

Not really relevant. The Committee has, this decade and under a 68 team format, left out an SEC team while still taking 4 teams with a worse conference record, as much as 4 fewer wins. The idea that it's impossible for them to do that this year is simply not backed up by history.

[Quaoarsking]

Agree. But they only took 5 teams that year which I said if that happens this year taking 5 or even 6 we would be in trouble.
And this was the old east and west format.
And to add the field was smaller then as well

No, the field was 68 teams then. You do have a good point with the East/West split, but Alabama's SOS was what kept them out, and we have SOS issues this year.

[Johnson85]

Look I'm no bracketologist, but I can read. The NCAA released a sheet that actually shows the criteria they are looking at for each team. Each committee member is going to get a sheet just like that one for every team. Nowhere on that sheet is conference record nor conference finish. I understand trying to compare historical context, but this is a new set up this year. Would it look bad if A&M got in over State looking at conference records and head to head results? Absolutely. But they don't really care what it looks like. There's always massive debate on the last couple of teams in and this new system is trying to provide transparency.

Can you add and subtract? Because they have record and non-conference record on the sheet and I bet the committee members can add and subtract. Maybe they will be so busy they won't bother looking at conference record, or maybe they will just consciously choose to ignore it because that's a policy decision they've made, but provided somebody's resume is not just discarded immediately, it seems likely many of the committee members will be somewhat curious as to conference record, and the info is there if they can subtract.

[Johnson85]

No, the field was 68 teams then. You do have a good point with the East/West split, but Alabama's SOS was what kept them out, and we have SOS issues this year.

That's not a comparable situation at all. They didn't take several West teams over Alabama with worse conference record, and those were the only teams with comparable conference schedules to compare.

Not saying they won't do it now because I have no clue, but the overall conference records between east and west teams were pretty meaningless to compare in that year because of the disparity in the quality of the divisions. The SEC conference schedules are still not identical now, but in most cases, they are going to be pretty similar, and provide a reasonable method of comparison, unless the Committee just makes a conscious decision not to make that comparison.

[shannondawg]

Whatever happens happens, I just know we have a coach that will get us to that level if not this year, next year. When he realized we had a problem on offense , he amended the way he has coached thru the years as a highly successful coach, he changed his routine, and its obvious the results of that change.

I watched the ole miss Mizzou game last night, the sharks played better, but the difference was a very reliable mizzou free throwing team couldn't hit the side of a barn in the latter stages hence the 2 point loss.

[TALL DAWG]

I'm educated enough. If we finish top 4 in the SEC- we are in. The committee will not take 3-4 SEC teams over the team that finished 4th- I promise you.

Top 4 in a top RPI conference
Great record the last 12 games
No bad losses

We will be in

Agree with everything here except the Vandy defeat (although we did lose in their funky a$$ gym) was a bad loss when we played them. Now, they beat UF since they beat us and if they win 1 or 2 more that loss will not be as bad. Someone mentioned the vandy loss cost us 9 or 10 spots in RPI.

[Ari Gold]

If the formula was exact everyone would have almost identical brackets. Last four in , first 4 out , next four out. Ect
Example is USA today bracket guru
He has ****ing LSU in the first four out, with Msu next four out.
Palm I don’t think even has us in next four out and has LSU no where
Joey Brackets has us next 4 out and LSU no where.

Bottom is like Coach34 and I and few others have said handle ur business, win the next 3 and we will play our way in.

[MaroonFlounder]

Is Pipedream a Landshart?

He seems to have an underlying agenda to his argument.

And a post count in the 30’s.

[Pipedream]

Is Pipedream a Landshart?

He seems to have an underlying agenda to his argument.

And a post count in the 30’s.

I post about what I know and not about what I think. My agenda is apparently teaching reading comprehension. You want a copy of my degree, post count nazi?

[Pipedream]

If the formula was exact everyone would have almost identical brackets. Last four in , first 4 out , next four out. Ect
Example is USA today bracket guru
He has ****ing LSU in the first four out, with Msu next four out.
Palm I don’t think even has us in next four out and has LSU no where
Joey Brackets has us next 4 out and LSU no where.

Bottom is like Coach34 and I and few others have said handle ur business, win the next 3 and we will play our way in.

I’ve yet to disagree with anyone that says we’ll get left out at 11-7. The disparity between the brackets is due to not every bracket being updated every day. Some do it once or twice a week, others every day. Tough to critique accuracy when they’re not apples to apples on info. By the time Selection Sunday rolls around everyone’s will be the same save last few in.

[MarketingBully]

They also look at what you have done in your last ten games. We have won six of our last eight and if we go 3-0 to finish the season we will have won nine of our last eleven. That will get you in all other things considered. They want hot teams in the tournament period.

[MarketingBully]

I post about what I know and not about what I think. My agenda is apparently teaching reading comprehension. You want a copy of my degree, post count nazi?

But you don’t know. That’s the point.

[Pipedream]

But you don?t know. That?s the point.

First off, they don't consider last 10 games or last 5 games. Its nonconsequential as a stand alone metric. I know enough to be able to read what the NCAA releases that they take into consideration for prospective tournament teams. If a teacher gave you a practice test and said that everything on the practice test would be on the real test, would most of y'all be like "na, she's bluffing. she doesn't know what she's talking about" ? Because that's basically what has happened when discussing the team sheets.

[msstate7]

First off, they don't consider last 10 games or last 5 games. Its nonconsequential as a stand alone metric. I know enough to be able to read what the NCAA releases that they take into consideration for prospective tournament teams. If a teacher gave you a practice test and said that everything on the practice test would be on the real test, would most of y'all be like "na, she's bluffing. she doesn't know what she's talking about" ? Because that's basically what has happened when discussing the team sheets.

I know you are smart enough to know there will be a human element. If it were just fill out those worksheets and those teams get in, a computer could wrap it up 1 min after the last championship game, no?

[Pipedream]

I know you are smart enough to know there will be a human element. If it were just fill out those worksheets and those teams get in, a computer could wrap it up 1 min after the last championship game, no?

Yeah, I mean these are humans so that no doubt will be the case, but the majority of that will come via which metrics each person places more emphasis on i.e. predictive vs results based or SOS or ncSOS or Q1+Q2 wins or Q3+Q4 losses. There's so many things they're looking at it will be easy for some of the committee to cherry pick, but they've added an average of all the metrics to kind of distill it all down to a number for each team to simplify it for them. All I've said from the beginning is that if you're looking for ratings or rankings that would provide some clarity on State's position for selection-conference standings nor record are not something that need to be used (along with last X games) because they're not going to be on the team sheets.

[Bulldog1]

They will be more likely to take us if we win 9 of 11 than taking aTm losing however many in a row.

[shannondawg]

How you playing at the end of the season good or bad certainly bears on the consideration you get.

[Bulldog1]

How you playing at the end of the season good or bad certainly bears on the consideration you get.
Yep

[Tbonewannabe]

How you playing at the end of the season good or bad certainly bears on the consideration you get.

That is the human element of picking the brackets. If a team had lost it's first 8 or 9 games with only 1 bad loss then won 20 or so games in a row then I would be surprised if that team wasn't in over someone who won their first 20 but was on a 8 game losing streak. It all boils down to us taking care of business down the stretch. We are pretty much still on the bubble so we need to win some more.

[drunkernhelldawg]

That is the human element of picking the brackets. If a team had lost it's first 8 or 9 games with only 1 bad loss then won 20 or so games in a row then I would be surprised if that team wasn't in over someone who won their first 20 but was on a 8 game losing streak. It all boils down to us taking care of business down the stretch. We are pretty much still on the bubble so we need to win some more.

We have been more and more consistent as the season has progressed. Also, we are capable of playing at a high level.

I think we will make the tourney. But that's just my maroon gut. I haven't looked at the tea leaves.

[MaroonFlounder]

I can’t wait to see us left out of the big tourney, so that Pipedream can say “I told you so”.