Something That is being Overlooked in This RPI/SOS Analysis

[CapitalCityDawg]

North Georgia, a team we scheduled as a non-con during the middle of the year, was a D2 team, so they are not considered in our RPI rating. So, in essence, we have 18 wins, not 19. Many RPI rankings show us at 18-8, not 19-8.

Hate on the non-conference schedule or not, that is inexcusable to schedule a DII team during the regular season. That game virtually did not count.

[msbulldog]

Well, and your point is?

[CapitalCityDawg]

Well, and your point is?

Huh? It would have obviously helped with a game that registered on the meter lol.

[curmudgeon]

Not necessarily.

If we didn't play the five sub-300 teams on our schedule, our RPI would be 34 right now with the potential for #22 if we won out.

Got to stop playing teams like FAMU, Alabama State, Green Bay, Little Rock, Tennessee Martin. Those five wins are worth -28 spots in our RPI.

The sweet spot is plating teams between Jacksonville State (185) and Stephen F. Austin (126) as the worst teams on the schedule.

Here are the regional teams that fall into that sweet spot and the teams that should be on our non conference schedule next year

Wofford
Nicholls State
Winthrop
Georgia State
Georgia Southern
Tennessee Tech
Tulane
UT Arlington
Louisiana Tech
Austin Peay
Tennessee State
Elon
Southeastern Louisiana
Mercer
UAB

These games are "RPI Neutral" meaning wins don't help you that much and even losses don't absolutely kill you. Next year you get Cincinnati at home and a Big 12/SEC challenge game that will help the RPI, as well as a holiday tournament.

Even if you expanded your reach to around 200, you pick up teams like Rio Grande, ULM, North Texas Sam Houston and Savannah State. We played FIVE sub-300 teams this year. RPI killer.

Look at a team like Rio Grande: http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/schedule/UTRGV

Nothing on there that scares you. But they are an infinitely better choice to play than FAMU. Why?

They have four conference games against top 100 teams every year + they step out of conference and play ACC and Big 12 teams.

Once FAMU hits their conference schedule, the highest ranked team they play is 202 and the majority is sub 300. When they lose to those sub 300 teams it hurts us just a little.

[smootness]

Not necessarily.

If we didn't play the five sub-300 teams on our schedule, our RPI would be 34 right now with the potential for #22 if we won out.

Got to stop playing teams like FAMU, Alabama State, Green Bay, Little Rock, Tennessee Martin. Those five wins are worth -28 spots in our RPI.

The sweet spot is plating teams between Jacksonville State (185) and Stephen F. Austin (126) as the worst teams on the schedule.

Here are the regional teams that fall into that sweet spot and the teams that should be on our non conference schedule next year

Wofford
Nicholls State
Winthrop
Georgia State
Georgia Southern
Tennessee Tech
Tulane
UT Arlington
Louisiana Tech
Austin Peay
Tennessee State
Elon
Southeastern Louisiana
Mercer
UAB

These games are "RPI Neutral" meaning wins don't help you that much and even losses don't absolutely kill you. Next year you get Cincinnati at home and a Big 12/SEC challenge game that will help the RPI, as well as a holiday tournament.

Even if you expanded your reach to around 200, you pick up teams like Rio Grande, ULM, North Texas Sam Houston and Savannah State. We played FIVE sub-300 teams this year. RPI killer.

Look at a team like Rio Grande: http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/schedule/UTRGV

Nothing on there that scares you. But they are an infinitely better choice to play than FAMU. Why?

They have four conference games against top 100 teams every year + they step out of conference and play ACC and Big 12 teams.

Once FAMU hits their conference schedule, the highest ranked team they play is 202 and the majority is sub 300. When they lose to those sub 300 teams it hurts us just a little.

Nailed it.

Games that don't count are actually better than games that do count but hurt you...which is much of our OOC schedule.

[Commercecomet24]

We are 20-8, if you take out the North Ga win we have 19 wins.

ETA: I see now you posted that win total before we beat AM.

[Quaoarsking]

Actually, we should have played 3 more d2 teams instead of our 3 worst d1 games. It would have helped our RPI

[Dawg61]

Can you write an email to Howland on how to schedule to set us up for the tournament. He seems to be clueless about it.

[curmudgeon]

Can you write an email to Howland on how to schedule to set us up for the tournament. He seems to be clueless about it.


Ha.

I did a little experiment. I dropped our games against FAMU, Alabama State, Little Rock, Green Bay and UT Martin and moved our USM game to Starkville

In their place, I scheduled Nicholls State, Georgia State, Austin Peay, Tennessee State and played Louisiana Tech in Jackson.

RPI went up to #23 and SOS went up to 44. Here's the kicker - if we went 3-2 in those games (losing to La Tech and Georgia State, our RPI would #53, 9 spots better than it is now.

You can play with schedules here: http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Mississippi%20St..html

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Can you write an email to Howland on how to schedule to set us up for the tournament. He seems to be clueless about it.

Our schedule will be improved next year. I have no problem with our schedule this year. We needed those wins to help to improve the winning culture. It was probably a game or 2 too soft but we needed to learn to win this year to carry us to a big next season.

[Bulldog1]

Next year we already have scheduled-
Cincinnati at home
@ Dayton
I think Long Beach state
A Las Vegas tourney that Arizona state is in
And the big 12/ SEC challenge game

[Dawg61]

Our schedule will be improved next year. I have no problem with our schedule this year. We needed those wins to help to improve the winning culture. It was probably a game or 2 too soft but we needed to learn to win this year to carry us to a big next season.

It's ok to admit greatness when you see it and curmudgeon has schedule greatness. He just replaced 5 wins with 5 wins and we now have an RPI of #23. That puts us in the 6 seed category. I'd rather be a 6 seed right now with the exact same amount of wins as we currently have than still trying to find a way to get into the tournament. I think Howland would be wise to listen to some scheduling tips. There are ways to work the system like Curmudgeon just showed us and we will be basically guaranteeing a bubble spot at worst even in our worst seasons. Stansbury never understood this and Howland is showing he doesn't either. No offense meant to Howland almost all coaches don't understand how to game the system better.

[Ari Gold]

It's ok to admit greatness when you see it and curmudgeon has schedule greatness. He just replaced 5 wins with 5 wins and we now have an RPI of #23. That puts us in the 6 seed category. I'd rather be a 6 seed right now with the exact same amount of wins as we currently have than still trying to find a way to get into the tournament. I think Howland would be wise to listen to some scheduling tips. There are ways to work the system like Curmudgeon just showed us and we will be basically guaranteeing a bubble spot at worst even in our worst seasons. Stansbury never understood this and Howland is showing he doesn't either. No offense meant to Howland almost all coaches don't understand how to game the system better.

I’m not sure we go 5-0 in those games. Did you see how we were playing early in the year? To add Stephen F Austin has a win over LSU and lost to Mizzu by 1 and Dayton is usually a bubble tourney team , no way of knowning they wouldn’t be that good this year.

[Dawg61]

I’m not sure we go 5-0 in those games. Did you see how we were playing early in the year? To add Stephen F Austin has a win over LSU and lost to Mizzu by 1 and Dayton is usually a bubble tourney team , no way of knowning they wouldn’t be that good this year.

Even if we lose 2 of them we are still 9 spots ahead in RPI and the committee can no longer dump on our OOC schedule.

[Turfdawg67]

Our schedule will be improved next year. I have no problem with our schedule this year. We needed those wins to help to improve the winning culture. It was probably a game or 2 too soft but we needed to learn to win this year to carry us to a big next season.

Agreed! This was the “cusp” of greatness year... we are slightly ahead of schedule.