NIT Projection

[Bulldog1]

The men are currently projected as a NIT 4 seed. Do yall think we have a chance at the tourney?

[confucius say]

Yes. But we have to go 7-3 to finish the season. That might not do it, but would have us squarely on the bubble going into sec tourney.

Win all 5 home games. Win 2 of 5 on road (looking at you vandy and Lsu).

[Bulldog1]

Right. And I believe it is doable, and we have a good chance for a road win tomorrow night.

[drunkernhelldawg]

We're pretty good and getting better.

[Bulldog1]

It gets frustrating at times watching them play, but overall, yes we’re pretty good.

[preachermatt83]

I'd be perfectly satisfied with nit. That's progress.

[Bulldog1]

It beats sitting at home! I haven’t gotten to watch our men play in a postseason game in 6 years.

[Commercecomet24]

I would be very satisfied with an NIT birth and I believe we get it. They've showed promise the last couple of weeks. Always best to let the season play out.

[Coach34]

Well that certainly hurts some feelings around here. Not only are we in the NIT currently- but we would have a home game

[msbulldog]

These guys are starting to clue in on how to succeed with the players we have. Peters playing inside out, either driving and dishing or hitting Ado to either shoot or dish. When they go inside, the other team collapses and leaves one of our shooters open. We'll do okay.

[BrunswickDawg]

The hilarity of our basketball fan melt this season rivals anything I've seen in a long, long time. This team is growing and showing potential and we act like they are 5-15. Will they make a run? I think odds are at least 50/50 they do - they are talented and have very good coaching. Just to show how ridiculous the expectations/melt has been, I decided to look at our record on January 30th every year since 1999 (SEC):
1999 - 14-8 (4-5)
2000 - 11-8 (2-4)
2001 - 11-6 (2-4)
2002 - 17-4 (4-3)
2003 - 13-4 (3-3)
2004 - 17-1 (6-1)
2005 - 16-5 (4-3)
2006 - 11-9 (1-6)
2007 - 11-9 (2-5)
2008 - 14-6 (5-1)
2009 - 14-6 (4-1)
2010 - 16-5 (4-2)
2011 - 11-9 (3-3)
2012 - 17-5 (4-3)
2013 - 7-12 (2-5)
2014 - 13-7 (3-4)
2015 - 9-11 (2-5)
2016 - 9-11 (2-6)
2017 - 13-7 (4-4)
2018 - 15-6 (3-5)

So in 20 seasons of games, we have gone into February with 7 or more losses 10 times, 5 or less losses 6 times, and had 6 losses exactly 4 times.
This season is basically exactly where we were in all but 6 seasons over the past 20 years (02, 03 & 04 were better, 13, 15 & 16 were worse) and people act like we are last in the SEC with no hope. It's truly baffling.

[drunkernhelldawg]

The hilarity of our basketball fan melt this season rivals anything I've seen in a long, long time. This team is growing and showing potential and we act like they are 5-15. Will they make a run? I think odds are at least 50/50 they do - they are talented and have very good coaching. Just to show how ridiculous the expectations/melt has been, I decided to look at our record on January 30th every year since 1999:
1999 - 14-8
2000 - 11-8
2001 - 11-6
2002 - 17-4
2003 - 13-4
2004 - 17-1
2005 - 16-5
2006 - 11-9
2007 - 11-9
2008 - 14-6
2009 - 14-6
2010 - 16-5
2011 - 11-9
2012 - 17-5
2013 - 7-12
2014 - 13-7
2015 - 9-11
2016 - 9-11
2017 - 13-7
2018 - 15-6

So in 20 seasons of games, we have gone into February with 7 or more losses 10 times, 5 or less losses 6 times, and had 6 losses exactly 4 times.
This season is basically exactly where we were in all but 6 seasons over the past 20 years (02, 03 & 04 were better, 13, 15 & 16 were worse) and people act like we are last in the SEC with no hope. It's truly baffling.

Great post. Only caveat is that we usually were 500 or better in league, but we have played the toughest teams early in SEC. Like I said, good things are happening with our team right now.

[BrunswickDawg]

Great post. Only caveat is that we usually were 500 or better in league, but we have played the toughest teams early in SEC. Like I said, good things are happening with our team right now.

A legit thought, so I looked at that (and have added to the post). 9 years under.500, 3 seasons at .500, 8 seasons over .500 . Again, I'd say that in general, we are where we normally are (or have been) at this point in the season.

[Bulldog1]

I’m actually very high on this team, I love to watch them play.
I just am not crazy about shooting 25 3 pointers a game. Watching last Saturday night was awesome!

[msudawglb]

The hilarity of our basketball fan melt this season rivals anything I've seen in a long, long time. This team is growing and showing potential and we act like they are 5-15. Will they make a run? I think odds are at least 50/50 they do - they are talented and have very good coaching. Just to show how ridiculous the expectations/melt has been, I decided to look at our record on January 30th every year since 1999 (SEC):
1999 - 14-8 (4-5)
2000 - 11-8 (2-4)
2001 - 11-6 (2-4)
2002 - 17-4 (4-3)
2003 - 13-4 (3-3)
2004 - 17-1 (6-1)
2005 - 16-5 (4-3)
2006 - 11-9 (1-6)
2007 - 11-9 (2-5)
2008 - 14-6 (5-1)
2009 - 14-6 (4-1)
2010 - 16-5 (4-2)
2011 - 11-9 (3-3)
2012 - 17-5 (4-3)
2013 - 7-12 (2-5)
2014 - 13-7 (3-4)
2015 - 9-11 (2-5)
2016 - 9-11 (2-6)
2017 - 13-7 (4-4)
2018 - 15-6 (3-5)

So in 20 seasons of games, we have gone into February with 7 or more losses 10 times, 5 or less losses 6 times, and had 6 losses exactly 4 times.
This season is basically exactly where we were in all but 6 seasons over the past 20 years (02, 03 & 04 were better, 13, 15 & 16 were worse) and people act like we are last in the SEC with no hope. It's truly baffling.



Those are great stats and all, but one thing that I dislike is when someone tries to make me feel better about bad basketball with historical stats. We had 3 games with sizable leads in the second half that we let slip away due to some bad basketball play. Imagine if we are 18-3 (6-2) right now. Don't try to make me feel better about some periods of bad basketball that are keeping this team out of the NCAA tourney. Are they learning...yes, I think so. Are they improving...yes, I think so. I just wish they could have learned and improved earlier in the season.

[Tbonewannabe]

Those are great stats and all, but one thing that I dislike is when someone tries to make me feel better about bad basketball with historical stats. We had 3 games with sizable leads in the second half that we let slip away due to some bad basketball play. Imagine if we are 18-3 (6-2) right now. Don't try to make me feel better about some periods of bad basketball that are keeping this team out of the NCAA tourney. Are they learning...yes, I think so. Are they improving...yes, I think so. I just wish they could have learned and improved earlier in the season.

We still have zero one and done players but have one of the youngest teams in college basketball. Howland at least has the program going in the right direction and he is recruiting at a high level.

[BrunswickDawg]

Those are great stats and all, but one thing that I dislike is when someone tries to make me feel better about bad basketball with historical stats. We had 3 games with sizable leads in the second half that we let slip away due to some bad basketball play. Imagine if we are 18-3 (6-2) right now. Don't try to make me feel better about some periods of bad basketball that are keeping this team out of the NCAA tourney. Are they learning...yes, I think so. Are they improving...yes, I think so. I just wish they could have learned and improved earlier in the season.

If I only had a $1 for every State basketball team that gave away a big lead due to the "Stansbury Stall", lost to Montana State, or shit the bed on national TV in the First Round of the SEC....... I can't honestly think of a season in 30 years where we didn't have WTF losses or where we didn't lose games where we had decent to big leads. Not one. Even 2004 we shit the bed against Xavier - a 26-11 team- that should have been a gimme in the NCAAs.

What we have is a group of people with unrealistic expectations for today's game of basketball, and what it takes to build stability in a program - let alone compete for the post season. "I can't believe we are in YEAR 3!!!!" Well, year 3 under Richard Williams was 13-15 (insert we hadn't built a program yet excuse here); and year 3 under Stands we were 18-13 (insert he shore could croot!!! and won 20 his first year with Williams' team excuse). But, Howland's year 3 track record!!! (his last "year 3" was over a decade ago). College Basketball is not a plug and play game anymore. Even Kentucky is breaking down this year with their 1 and dones. Everywhere around us you can see where consistency starts to pay off between year 3-5. We can't be arbitrary and impatient.

[sleepy dawg]

The men are currently projected as a NIT 4 seed. Do yall think we have a chance at the tourney?

I don't think we have a realistic shot at the tourney outside of winning the SEC tourney. Its certainly possible. However, an NIT bid is a big deal for us and I think a much more reachable goal this year. The NIT is not even close to automatic for us right now either. We start slipping we're back out. We don't have much wiggle room with our weak ooc schedule. The 1 thing we have going for us is we didn't really f*ck any of those easy games up either.

[TheRef]

Here's the reason why I would be extremely happy with a NIT bid right now: Extra practices. Remember that we MAY lose one or two players after this season. Having that extra week or two of practice could be huge in the development of this team towards Year 4. I think the more practice time this team has, the better off we will be come next season.

[bluelightstar]

Vandy is giving Kentucky all they want at Rupp Arena with 6 mins to go. There are no easy outs in the league this year and I can't understand why so many people seem to *want* the basketball team to be bad. I imagine it's for some lingering "I-told-you-so's."

[Coach34]

Vandy is giving Kentucky all they want at Rupp Arena with 6 mins to go. There are no easy outs in the league this year and I can't understand why so many people seem to *want* the basketball team to be bad. I imagine it's for some lingering "I-told-you-so's."

of course it is- thats obvious

[biggun]

If I only had a $1 for every State basketball team that gave away a big lead due to the "Stansbury Stall", lost to Montana State, or shit the bed on national TV in the First Round of the SEC....... I can't honestly think of a season in 30 years where we didn't have WTF losses or where we didn't lose games where we had decent to big leads. Not one. Even 2004 we shit the bed against Xavier - a 26-11 team- that should have been a gimme in the NCAAs.

What we have is a group of people with unrealistic expectations for today's game of basketball, and what it takes to build stability in a program - let alone compete for the post season. "I can't believe we are in YEAR 3!!!!" Well, year 3 under Richard Williams was 13-15 (insert we hadn't built a program yet excuse here); and year 3 under Stands we were 18-13 (insert he shore could croot!!! and won 20 his first year with Williams' team excuse). But, Howland's year 3 track record!!! (his last "year 3" was over a decade ago). College Basketball is not a plug and play game anymore. Even Kentucky is breaking down this year with their 1 and dones. Everywhere around us you can see where consistency starts to pay off between year 3-5. We can't be arbitrary and impatient.


2004, 2nd round vs Xavier was hardly a gimme! Xavier beat Louisville, MSU, and Texas to advance to the Elite 8 where they lost a nail-biter by 3 to Duke. Give me a break.

[BrunswickDawg]

2004, 2nd round vs Xavier was hardly a gimme! Xavier beat Louisville, MSU, and Texas to advance to the Elite 8 where they lost a nail-biter by 3 to Duke. Give me a break.
So you?re saying a 26-3, Number 4 in the AP, SEC West Champ, with a 2 Seed shouldn?t have won that game, and that a 15 point loss to the 7 seed wasn?t a bed shitting? #Weareabasketballschool

[drunkernhelldawg]

So you?re saying a 26-3, Number 4 in the AP, SEC West Champ, with a 2 Seed shouldn?t have won that game, and that a 15 point loss to the 7 seed wasn?t a bed shitting? #Weareabasketballschool

biggum is right, but no need to rehash it.

[dawgday166]

So you?re saying a 26-3, Number 4 in the AP, SEC West Champ, with a 2 Seed shouldn?t have won that game, and that a 15 point loss to the 7 seed wasn?t a bed shitting? #Weareabasketballschool

You're right about this. Add to it the 2nd round (after a bye) loss to Vandy in SEC tourney that year. All after winning SEC outright.

[BrunswickDawg]

You're right about this. Add to it the 2nd round (after a bye) loss to Vandy in SEC tourney that year. All after winning SEC outright.

Not to mention the fact we had beaten Xavier by 12 in the Hump that December.

[Tbonewannabe]

So you?re saying a 26-3, Number 4 in the AP, SEC West Champ, with a 2 Seed shouldn?t have won that game, and that a 15 point loss to the 7 seed wasn?t a bed shitting? #Weareabasketballschool

That was the best regular season team MSU had since the 60s. Xavier got hot at the right time which sometime happens in the tourney but it still shouldn't have happened. Stans was very similar to Mullen in that regard. He would consistently compete but rarely beat a team that was more physically talented than the one he put on the floor. One thing I always heard about Stans was he only wanted Yes men on his staff. I have no clue if that was true but he never had strong assistants that went on anywhere else really. If you look at successful head coaches, they typically produce other head coaches. Cohen has produced 4 or 5 head coaches just in the short time he was at MSU.

[Intramural All-American]

So you?re saying a 26-3, Number 4 in the AP, SEC West Champ, with a 2 Seed shouldn?t have won that game, and that a 15 point loss to the 7 seed wasn?t a bed shitting? #Weareabasketballschool

If you consider every upset crapping the bed, then sure it was crapping the bed. But if you actually watch games and realize that Xavier would have beaten pretty much any team in the country that day, then no, I wouldn't say we crapped the bed. We got handily beat by a team that was on fire that day. They shot 68% from three including a buzzer beater from half-court going into half. That's the beauty and the misery of the NCAA tournament. The best team doesn't win every game, and you have to stay hot for 6 games to win it all. We were the better team on the year for sure, but that day, they were arguably the best team in the country. In no way, shape, or form did we choke.

[HossDawg97]

Well that certainly hurts some feelings around here. Not only are we in the NIT currently- but we would have a home game

A home game or two would be great for us, along with the extra practice time. Hopefully if that happens we get a good fan turnout for the games.

[Tbonewannabe]

A home game or two would be great for us, along with the extra practice time. Hopefully if that happens we get a good fan turnout for the games.

I honestly might be happier winning a couple of games at home in the NIT than getting in the NCAAs and losing in the first round. I think it would help the team next year to have a little bit of a tourney run.

[dawgday166]

That was the best regular season team MSU had since the 60s. Xavier got hot at the right time which sometime happens in the tourney but it still shouldn't have happened. Stans was very similar to Mullen in that regard. He would consistently compete but rarely beat a team that was more physically talented than the one he put on the floor. One thing I always heard about Stans was he only wanted Yes men on his staff. I have no clue if that was true but he never had strong assistants that went on anywhere else really. If you look at successful head coaches, they typically produce other head coaches. Cohen has produced 4 or 5 head coaches just in the short time he was at MSU.

Well, I don't think they were more "physically" talented. Stans was similar to Mullen in not having team prepared for big games. Stans was decent as underdog (2 SEC tourney titles), but not as fav. When fav in SEC tourney he crapped bed too.

In big games under Stans, I never saw such damn good shooters throwing up the most gawd-awful bricks in my life. Clankers, airballs, you name it.

[drunkernhelldawg]

Not to mention the fact we had beaten Xavier by 12 in the Hump that December.

In my mind, Basketball is a game of runs. Xavier was on a huge run. We're not the only victim of it.

I suppose we could have won, but the idea that we were beat by an inferior team ignores the calendar and the facts.

[Coach34]

Stands was 20-46 vs ranked teams during his tenure. For all his supposed greatness- thats not real good

[MadDawg]

I can't understand why so many people seem to *want* the basketball team to be bad. I imagine it's for some lingering "I-told-you-so's."

That's been going on for nearly a decade around here - nothing new.

[drunkernhelldawg]

I honestly might be happier winning a couple of games at home in the NIT than getting in the NCAAs and losing in the first round. I think it would help the team next year to have a little bit of a tourney run.

Great point, but we've still got to try for the big dance.

[drunkernhelldawg]

Stands was 20-46 vs ranked teams during his tenure. For all his supposed greatness- thats not real good
That's true. Many of those games were super exciting, but we came up short. in many of the close ones.i The non call that handed KY our W and the comeback vs. Memphis at the dance come to mind. Hell, we had a shot almost every time vs. KY, which was always among the top in the nation.

[dawgday166]

That's true. Many of those games were super exciting, but we came up short. in many of the close ones.i The non call that handed KY our W and the comeback vs. Memphis at the dance come to mind. Hell, we had a shot almost every time vs. KY, which was always among the top in the nation.

KY wasn't that good during that time. I'm not sure but they were usually 4 - 8 seeds if I recall correctly under Tubby. May have had a 2 or 3 seed thrown in there somewhere.

Certainly not the caliber of the KY teams Calipari is putting out.

[BrunswickDawg]

KY wasn't that good during that time. I'm not sure but they were usually 4 - 8 seeds if I recall correctly under Tubby. May have had a 2 or 3 seed thrown in there somewhere.

Certainly not the caliber of the KY teams Calipari is putting out.

Early Tubby was pretty good. Ky was a 3 in '99, 5 in '00, 2 in '01, 4 in '02, 1 in '03 & '04 and 2 in '05. The 8 seed in '06 led to Tubby's ouster, then the "terrible" Gillispie run of 8 seed in '07, 11 in '08 and missing the tourney in '09.

[Tbonewannabe]

Stands was 20-46 vs ranked teams during his tenure. For all his supposed greatness- thats not real good

If you equate that to football, it is probably close to what Dan did. Stans did a good job of getting us to a tourney at the end of the year, whether it was NIT or NCAA. He didn't do a good job once he got there. Other than one run in the NIT, I don't think he ever won more than one game. It is kind of similar to football getting to the Orange Bowl and getting killed by GA Tech or playing UM with a share of the SEC West on the line and losing. He set a good floor but couldn't handle the ceiling.

[Dawg61]

So you?re saying a 26-3, Number 4 in the AP, SEC West Champ, with a 2 Seed shouldn?t have won that game, and that a 15 point loss to the 7 seed wasn?t a bed shitting? #Weareabasketballschool

You were killing it in this thread till you brought up our loss to Xavier as a bed shitting. It was an extremely unlucky pairing is what it was as that Xavier team would have beaten every team in the country for a period of 3-4 weeks there. They were absolutely pistol red hot to the tune of destroying undefeated and #1 team in the country St. Joe's by 30 in the Atlantic 10 tournament. #1 in the country #1 seed St. Joe's Jameer Nelson and Delonte West got their brains beat in by that same Xavier team for their first loss of the season a mere week before we had to face Xavier. We woulda been better off getting paired against a #1 seed than we were getting paired up to play Xavier in the 2nd round. Nobody was beating them that day.

[BrunswickDawg]

You were killing it in this thread till you brought up our loss to Xavier as a bed shitting. It was an extremely unlucky pairing is what it was as that Xavier team would have beaten every team in the country for a period of 3-4 weeks there. They were absolutely pistol red hot to the tune of destroying undefeated and #1 team in the country St. Joe's by 30 in the Atlantic 10 tournament. #1 in the country #1 seed St. Joe's Jameer Nelson and Delonte West got their brains beat in by that same Xavier team for their first loss of the season a mere week before we had to face Xavier. We woulda been better off getting paired against a #1 seed than we were getting paired up to play Xavier in the 2nd round. Nobody was beating them that day.

I guess it just depends on your definition of a bed shitting. Personally, losing to a team by 15 that you beat by 12 earlier in the season, as a highly ranked Conference Champion #2 seed is a bed shitting. Regardless of how hot the other team may be - it was a game on a national stage we were expected to win and we didn?t show up for the 2nd half. That pretty much is my definition of hoping on up on top of the mattress and dropping a load.

[dawgday166]

I guess it just depends on your definition of a bed shitting. Personally, losing to a team by 15 that you beat by 12 earlier in the season, as a highly ranked Conference Champion #2 seed is a bed shitting. Regardless of how hot the other team may be - it was a game on a national stage we were expected to win and we didn?t show up for the 2nd half. That pretty much is my definition of hoping on up on top of the mattress and dropping a load.

I LOAD was dropped too!

[Coach34]

I guess it just depends on your definition of a bed shitting. Personally, losing to a team by 15 that you beat by 12 earlier in the season, as a highly ranked Conference Champion #2 seed is a bed shitting. Regardless of how hot the other team may be - it was a game on a national stage we were expected to win and we didn?t show up for the 2nd half. That pretty much is my definition of hoping on up on top of the mattress and dropping a load.

exactly- we were red hot in 2009 when we won the SEC Tourney and rolled into the NCAA’s. What happened? We got skull-drug by Washington in the 1st round. The StandsCult just tried to excuse every time he failed to meet expectations. But they try to act like we were some juggernaut when he was coach. 20-46 vs ranked teams for his career- and half of the wins happened by 2002. 2003-2012 we only had 9-10 wins vs ranked teams

[HossDawg97]

Our chances got a boost last night for both the NIT and the NCAA.