Line opes aTm -2

[Leroy Jenkins]

I thought they would get the proverbial "home team 3 points" at least, given our abysmal road conference games.

Pigs & Sharks are PK. I dint expect that game to be listed considering key injuries.

[ShotgunDawg]

That means Vegas thinks we may be the better team.

[msstate7]

I think that line is fair. I do not have a feel for this game either way.

I think Arkansas wins

[Hasu Dackds]

I hate that it is at night. I feel like we can win it and probably should, but we just won't.

[Bully13]

WOW., that's strong @ A&M. surprised. Vegas be loving on us. would be great if we can pull it off.

[No BS Dawg]

With that line, Vegas is begging folks to put money on A&M. That could be a good omen for us.

[Bucky Dog]

Line probably goes up to at least -5 by game time.

[BuckyIsAB****]

I wanna say we win it so bad but they gave Bama the only test they've had all year. I feel good about stopping them I dont think Mond can beat us without us helping them.

Its simple with State right now, if we can run the ball and if Mullen sticks to running the ball, we will win. If we dont, we will lose. A&M is gonna make us prove we can pitch and catch it, even after the impressive UK game

[msstate7]

I wanna say we win it so bad but they gave Bama the only test they've had all year. I feel good about stopping them I dont think Mond can beat us without us helping them.

Its simple with State right now, if we can run the ball and if Mullen sticks to running the ball, we will win. If we dont, we will lose. A&M is gonna make us prove we can pitch and catch it, even after the impressive UK game

Yeah, they?ve also struggled with Florida, Arkansas, and lost to UCLA.

[Irondawg]

To me it's pretty simply in that you don't punt to Kirk - don't let him burn us deep and then contain Mond's running on 3rd down. Florida lost their game b/c they punted to Kirk late and he had a big return and Mond ran for a first on about 3 straight 3rd downs and they never put a spy on him.

If they beat us some other way than kudos to them.

For us it really is simple and staying away from penalties and keeping the ground game going. If Fitz gets two wide open TD's again though he HAS to make the throws (and the receiver has to stay upright). We have to make the plays in the passing game that are there.

[was21]

down to pik 'em alredy

[BrunswickDawg]

It?s real simple - line up on them and run it up their ass like we did last year and we will win. Their D is terrible and Grantham will figure it out

[IMissJack]

It?s real simple - line up on them and run it up their ass like we did last year and we will win. Their D is terrible and Grantham will figure it out

Their d was pretty good vs. bama. That was the best game I have seen them play in 2 years and they lost.

[dawgday166]

Their d was pretty good vs. bama. That was the best game I have seen them play in 2 years and they lost.

Chavis is historically a pretty good D coordinator ... especially against Bama minus the last 2 minutes. His 2 minute D's suck ass.

[TUSK]

A&M fought hard hard in the PsychoPhant game... The game was effectively over 4 minutes into the 2nd half, but, apparently, no one from Bammer let the Ags know...

If yall get the same version Bammer played, it'll be interesting... if it's the "regular" A&M y'all should run em outta the building....

[dawgday166]

Hard to tell which TAM shows up. Hard to tell which MSU shows up. I have no clue how this game will go.

My guess is we lose a somewhat close one because of the same ole coach mindset "it's hard to win on road in SEC". If a coach is feeling that way, filters down to players. We ain't a good road team because of it.

[sleepy dawg]

We're the favorite now.

[Bucky Dog]

Am I reading it correctly that we are now favored by 1.5? If so, wow!!

[IMissJack]

Don't let Christian Kirk get behind us or return a punt, and we should be ok.

[dawgday166]

Am I reading it correctly that we are now favored by 1.5? If so, wow!!

I don't like that. Wish they were favored by 2 TDs.

[WinningIsRelentless]

Don't let Christian Kirk get behind us or return a punt, and we should be ok.

Let me put it this way, don't give the qb time to find him deep.

[IMissJack]

or that!

[Bucky Dog]

Does somebody know something we don't know? Like Mond and Kirk are suspended or something?

[msstate7]

Does somebody know something we don't know? Like Mond and Kirk are suspended or something?

Or sumlin is missing and thought to be on another bender

[IMissJack]

How does A&M D rank vs. the run?

[msstate7]

How does A&M D rank vs. the run?

6th in sec

[dawgday166]

How does A&M D rank vs. the run?

They "held" Bama to 232 rush yds, 106 passing. I'm just betting (it's a long shot bet now ****) that even on a bad day, Bama is probably twice as good rushing the ball than we are.

[IMissJack]

They "held" Bama to 232 rush yds, 106 passing. I'm just betting (it's a long shot bet now ****) that even on a bad day, Bama is probably twice as good rushing the ball than we are.

So you think they hold us to 116 rushing?

[dawgday166]

So you think they hold us to 116 rushing?

Probably not ... wouldn't be surprised at 150 or less tho. Don't know. We do seem to run it pretty good, but I know we don't run it better than Bama. I figure Chavis for shore is gonna make Fitz beat them with his arm.

ETA: Bama 8th rushing O (298/game); We're 13th (264/game) and have played 2 teams with much tougher rushing D's than anyone Bama has played. So we may be better than half as good as Bama in rushing the ball.:cool:

[msstate7]

Probably not ... wouldn't be surprised at 150 or less tho. Don't know. We do seem to run it pretty good, but I know we don't run it better than Bama. I figure Chavis for shore is gonna make Fitz beat them with his arm.

Florida ran for more than bama (236 to 232) on less carries. Arkansas ran for 6 less yards than bama did on 1 more carry. Guess Florida and Arkansas are just as good as bama running the ball, right?

[Commercecomet24]

A&M fought hard hard in the PsychoPhant game... The game was effectively over 4 minutes into the 2nd half, but, apparently, no one from Bammer let the Ags know...

If yall get the same version Bammer played, it'll be interesting... if it's the "regular" A&M y'all should run em outta the building....

Truth.

[dawgday166]

Florida ran for more than bama (236 to 232) on less carries. Arkansas ran for 6 less yards than bama did on 1 more carry. Guess Florida and Arkansas are just as good as bama running the ball, right?

Read my edited to add on previous post.

[TrapGame]

A&M was juiced for the Bama. Will we get that kind of juice? Payback for last year?

[sleepy dawg]

I don't like that. Wish they were favored by 2 TDs.

Yeah, it sucks being better than other teams.

[dawgday166]

Yeah, it sucks being better than other teams.

We don't play very well IMO as favorites against teams we're somewhat evenly matched with. That's my perception anyway. And in reality they have better talent per recruiting rankings.

We're only "better" than them if we wax them this weekend. Otherwise it's just opinions.

[ShotgunDawg]

That swung fast. Now it is MSU -1 with some places having it as a pickum.

Extremely odd, if this holds, we'll have a non-ranked team favored over a ranked team that is playing at home at night. Hmmmmm...........

The first number listed is what it opened at.

https://i.imgur.com/U3hMpoV.jpg

[basedog]

Yeah, it sucks being better than other teams.

+1

[ShotgunDawg]

We don't play very well IMO as favorites against teams we're somewhat evenly matched with. That's my perception anyway. And in reality they have better talent per recruiting rankings.

We're only "better" than them if we wax them this weekend. Otherwise it's just opinions.

I would argue the opposite. When we are fairly evenly matched, we win.

It when we talk ourselves into being evenly matched vs top 5 recruiters that we look terrible & get destroyed.

We were not evenly matched vs UGA & Auburn. They had far more talent than us.

Evenly matched would be comparing us to OM last year or Arkansas over the past 5 years.

[dawgday166]

I would argue the opposite. When we are fairly evenly matched, we win.

It when we talk ourselves into being evenly matched vs top 5 recruiters that we look terrible & get destroyed.

We were not evenly matched vs UGA & Auburn. They had far more talent than us.

Evenly matched would be comparing us to OM last year or Arkansas over the past 5 years.

That actually may be a better way to put what I was trying to say. So TAM's last 5 classes in order from 2013 - 2017;
9, 5, 11, 18, 13. Note their seniors and RS juniors were a #5 class.

Seems like they recruit better than us. So we're the favs and going into their home turf.

[bulldawg28]

They know

[ShotgunDawg]

That actually may be a better way to put what I was trying to say. So TAM's last 5 classes in order from 2013 - 2017;
9, 5, 11, 18, 13. Note their seniors and RS juniors were a #5 class.

Seems like they recruit better than us. So we're the favs and going into their home turf.

They do recruit better than us, but not nearly to the level of UGA or Auburn.

Additionally, there has likely been a good bit of attrition since the number 9 & 5 classes.

Lastly, MSU has the better coach & more experienced, better QB.

I think A&M's OL is more talented than MSU's & A&M has a few more play makers on the outside, but, outside of that, I could argue that MSU is better at every other position on the field.

I don't have proof of this, but I believe there is a big difference in being a top 8-13 recruiter & being a top 5 recruiter. There are only so many elite players out there & once you get past Bama, UGA, Ohio State, LSU, Auburn, Florida State, & Clemson, college football talent levels really start to flatten out considering you can only play 11 players at a time.

[dawgday166]

We'll see. I think we can and should give them a good scrap. Mullen just doesn't do well in these situations IMO. I'm starting to get the feeling that now that we waxed a not-so-good KY team it's sorta like when we waxed a not-so-good at the time LSU team. Some are thinking we'll just walk into College Station and lay a beat down on them (like they thought against UGA & AU). I hope we do lay a beat down.

If I recall correctly in 2014 OM only had 1 top 10 class on that team, were all beat up to hell, everyone picked us to win and .... what happened. TAM heavily favored against us last year ... what happened.

Sumlin, Malzahn, Dan, Freeze ... they are all much better as the underdog against the mid-to-upper tier SEC teams.

[codeDawg]

The data is in our favor.

[Jack Lambert]

Guys who make a living off betting vs several hundred sports writers who really don't know shit out side USC, ND and Bama.

[Commercecomet24]

Guys who make a living off betting vs several hundred sports writers who really don't know shit out side USC, ND and Bama.

Y?all listen to Jack!

[ShotgunDawg]

Guys who make a living off betting vs several hundred sports writers who really don't know shit out side USC, ND and Bama.

This

[Lord McBuckethead]

Probably not ... wouldn't be surprised at 150 or less tho. Don't know. We do seem to run it pretty good, but I know we don't run it better than Bama. I figure Chavis for shore is gonna make Fitz beat them with his arm.

ETA: Bama 8th rushing O (298/game); We're 13th (264/game) and have played 2 teams with much tougher rushing D's than anyone Bama has played. So we may be better than half as good as Bama in rushing the ball.:cool:

We will have 298 yards rushing. Mark it down.

[BuckyIsAB****]

Yeah, they?ve also struggled with Florida, Arkansas, and lost to UCLA.

You're right havent thought about that. W is a W though. Arkansas is terrible so really no excuse for that one or UCLA. They are beatable, all comes down to our mindset and running game

[Commercecomet24]

We will have 298 yards rushing. Mark it down.

This. I believe we run for close to 300 as well. We are starting to control games at the los on both sides of the ball. We are physical on both sides and AM don?t like physical play. Mond is not a great passer. We stop the run well and he won?t beat us through the air. Gotta contain Kirk on returns and on offense.

[dawgday166]

We will have 298 yards rushing. Mark it down.

Lessee ... TAM gives up 135/game. We haven't rushed for 300 against any SEC teams, including LSU & KY in Vegas. So I kinda doubt we'll put up 298 yds rushing against them at College Station.

[Really Clark?]

Lessee ... TAM gives up 135/game. We haven't rushed for 300 against any SEC teams, including LSU & KY in Vegas. So I kinda doubt we'll put up 298 yds rushing against them at College Station.

A & M is giving up 5.35 yards per carry avg vs Arkansas, Bama and Florida. If our rushing attempts is close to our avg of the last 2 games, 50.5, then we could rush for 270 yards. If he avg the same as Florida, 5.76 yards per carry, then that is potentially 291 yards. The yards per game is a good stat but yards per carry is better in determining potential rushing yards in a game.

[Perpetual Underachiever]

Great data. I'm extremely confident we leave College Station with the W. A&M is not a great football team. Yes, they gave bama a decent fight...they also could very easily have lost to Arky and UF. All of the data favors the dawgs. Our OL and running game will be dominant, >225 yds. We will likely give up a few big plays to their athletes, but overall we dominate the LOS and control the clock. It'll be interesting to see where the line ends up.

Vegas Knows.