Will Fitz Throw the Ball Effectively Tomorrow?

[BeastMan]

Looked at some stats today and noticed a few alarming passing efficiency stats.

-Vs SEC opponents, Fitz is 2nd to last in the conference in passer rating only ahead of Dormandy (UT)

-Vs P5 opponents with a winning record, Fitz is 99th nationally in passer rating (and they only rate to 100).

-Fitz is 5th in the league in passing attempts and 13th in the league in yards

BYU is 37th nationally is passing defense allowing 200 ypg but what I think is a better indicator is passer rating against which is 104th nationally mainly due to a 8 to 3 TD to INT ratio and a 66.3% completion percentage (which is 118th nationally).

In short, Fitz has been awful throwing the ball but this BYU defense is bad against the pass. To be fair, some of Fitz's numbers are skewed having played 2 elite defenses in UGA and Auburn. This is a 4 game stretch where he can rise back toward the middle of the pack. I'm really hoping we see some growth in the passing game the next 4 games.

[BeastMan]

One more thing to ponder. In 2010, jr Chris Relf finished with 1776 passing yards, 12 TDs, 6 INTs, 59% completion percentage, and a 140.46 passer rating. Right now Fitz is at 783 yards, 8 TDs, 5 INTs, 53% completion percentage, and a 115.28 passer rating.

[Jack Lambert]

BYU is not Georgia or Auburn.

[TimberBeast]

Looked at some stats today and noticed a few alarming passing efficiency stats.

-Vs SEC opponents, Fitz is 2nd to last in the conference in passer rating only ahead of Dormandy (UT)

-Vs P5 opponents with a winning record, Fitz is 99th nationally in passer rating (and they only rate to 100).

-Fitz is 5th in the league in passing attempts and 13th in the league in yards

BYU is 37th nationally is passing defense allowing 200 ypg but what I think is a better indicator is passer rating against which is 104th nationally mainly due to a 8 to 3 TD to INT ratio and a 66.3% completion percentage (which is 118th nationally).

In short, Fitz has been awful throwing the ball but this BYU defense is bad against the pass. To be fair, some of Fitz's numbers are skewed having played 2 elite defenses in UGA and Auburn. This is a 4 game stretch where he can rise back toward the middle of the pack. I'm really hoping we see some growth in the passing game the next 4 games.

If we're not first in all of college football (every division) in dropped passes I would be shocked. He needs to improve somewhat but his numbers are badly skewed by receivers getting hit in the hands over and over again and dropping passes.

[HoopsDawg]

so BYU is 0-5 and they suck, but they only lost by 6 to Utah. I'm just not sure if we cover the 24. We don't have enough explosive players on offense.

[Cooterpoot]

We just played two of the best defenses and teams in the country. Fitz is throwing the ball better than the stats show.

[Gutter Cobreh]

BYU is not Georgia or Auburn.

Fitz wasn't able to hit the broad side of a barn during the spring game, but don't mention that to anyone as you'll get chastised and run off the board since those types of games are meaningless....We've seen our secondary get roasted the last two games, yet when he went up against them he threw 3 picks in one half.

Is he progressing or regressing?

[BeastMan]

If we're not first in all of college football (every division) in dropped passes I would be shocked. He needs to improve somewhat but his numbers are badly skewed by receivers getting hit in the hands over and over again and dropping passes.

That’s a fallacy. Everybody drops balls. I’ve searched for drop stats and cannot find them. Bama, OM, and every other team in the country drops balls every week

[MadDawg]

I think Fitz will finish somewhere around 15 of 21 for 200 yards, with another 75 yards rushing. Add another 200 yards rushing from the backs for total offense around 500.

We win convincingly. 42-7

[Cooterpoot]

By the way, is BYU a power 5 team with a winning record or an SEC team?

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Considering we have only 2 WR's playing that would break the Two Deep at a SWAC School, I would focus on the run game....

[Todd4State]

I think it's more the WR than it is Fitz. I'll be interested to see how Couch and Todd do. It sounds like they're going to play a lot.

[chef dixon]

Our fans continue to give him a pass. He's not a good passer and is not really any better than the end of last year which is the most concerning part. It's not just against UGA and Auburn, he looked lost throwing in portions of every game. We are just going to have to just get used to it for the next 1.5 seasons.

[BeastMan]

By the way, is BYU a power 5 team with a winning record or an SEC team?

They are not. Which is why I said I hope to see growth and rise back to the middle of the pack the next 4 weeks. And to boot, I gave some numbers to show that BYU is bad against the pass. This game has to be the launch point to seeing some improved passing offense for the remainder of the season.

[Jack Lambert]

Fitz wasn't able to hit the broad side of a barn during the spring game, but don't mention that to anyone as you'll get chastised and run off the board since those types of games are meaningless....We've seen our secondary get roasted the last two games, yet when he went up against them he threw 3 picks in one half.

Is he progressing or regressing?

Again we are playing 1-5 BYU. The run will open up the passing lanes for Fitz. Have you not watched BYU play?

[confucius say]

That’s a fallacy. Everybody drops balls. I’ve searched for drop stats and cannot find them. Bama, OM, and every other team in the country drops balls every week

Do they drop 7 in a game? Ours have. Go watch the film. That doesn't even count the 50/50 back shoulder throws that we havent come down with all year.

Also, our receivers minus Mixon are never open. No separation.

Nobody is saying fitz is great.

[BeastMan]

Do they drop 7 in a game? Ours have. Go watch the film. That doesn't even count the 50/50 back shoulder throws that we havent come down with all year.

Also, our receivers minus Mixon are never open. No separation.

Nobody is saying fitz is great.

First off, we don't drop 7 balls a game. Not even close. Maybe one game a year that will happen and that's for every team in football. I watch NFL games where they drop multiple passes a game every week. Good QBs throw WRs open. Dak did it all the damn time. Fitz cannot do it. He just doesn't see it. And that's what makes a good QB good. Any average QB can hit a guy streaking down the field wide open. That's usually indicative of a coverage bust more than some great route being ran anyway.

[BulldogBear]

Again we are playing 1-5 BYU. The run will open up the passing lanes for Fitz. Have you not watched BYU play?

This. It's bayad. Turrible.

[Dawgology]

A lot of that is on the receivers. We are playing 5-foot-nothing guys on the outside. It’s a tragedy our receiving corps was allowed to get to this point. We had better see Couch and Todd a lot going forward. Plus...we drop a lot of catcheable balls.

[Gutter Cobreh]

Again we are playing 1-5 BYU. The run will open up the passing lanes for Fitz. Have you not watched BYU play?

I don't doubt what you're saying. What I'm countering with is as the pass opens up, can Fitz control his throws to be accurate?

We'll all see tomorrow how it goes.

[Commercecomet24]

It?s about 50/50 Fitz and receivers. Our receivers arent world beaters right now but Fitz is missing reads and going to his checkdown way to early at times. Twice against uga on third and +5 he checked down to shallow cross when gray was running free on a deep corner because the safety was jumping all the underneath stuff. Happened couple times at auburn too. Gotta get it fixed.

[TaleofTwoDogs]

So many of you guys want Fitz to be what he isn't, a throwing QB. Fitz is a athlete playing QB just like Relf. He is not Dak and never will be. Fitz needs an elite OL to be truly successful and the last time I looked we barely have a SEC quality line. Like all option QBs his bread and butter is the short pass and we need to get our TEs and RBs more involved in the passing game otherwise it's 8 men in the box and we get stuffed at the line.

[Prediction? Pain.]

The passing game against UGA and Auburn was atrocious any which way you slice it. Missed reads, skipped reads (according to Mullen, at least), drops, etc.

But let's keep things in context.

We've played four FBS teams this year. Here are their national defensive ranks in, (1) opponents' QB rating, and (2) yards per opponents' passing attempt (both of which are against other FBS teams, so no stats from games vs. FCS teams included):

Opponents' QB Rating

La. Tech - 43rd
LSU - 32nd
UGA - 1st
AU - 11th

Opponents' Yards Per Attempt

La. Tech - 32nd
LSU - 14th
UGA - 1st
AU - 7th

The S&P+ and FEI passing defense ranks aren't out yet (they come out after Week 7), but LSU, UGA, and AU are all in the top 15 nationally in the overall S&P+ defense rankings.

Now, we're only six weeks into the season, so these stats are far from final. And of course LSU hasn't faced a murderer's row of FBS passing offenses (us, Troy, Syracuse, and FL). But still, with the data that we've got, we haven't played a bad or even bottom half FBS pass defense so far.

Against two pass defenses that have so far been average to good (La. Tech and LSU), our pass offense was solid. QB ratings of ~160 in each, 65% completion percentage in each, 5 TDs, 1 INT. It wasn't prolific, mind you -- 312 yards combined in those two games. But I don't think it's designed to be. At its best with our current lineup, it's efficient and effective. And that's exactly what it was against what are currently top 40 and a top 25 pass defenses.

Against the No. 1 pass defense in college football on the road? Yeah, not so much. Against a top 10 pass defense, again on the road? Nope.

Now, that doesn't mean we shouldn't have been able to produce more against UGA and AU. I'd like to think that our passing offense should be far enough along with Fitz in charge since the early part of last season to at least keep things decent against pass defenses that good.

But it may be a little early to say that Fitz and crew have been terrible across the board.

Also, about Relf in 2010, it's hard to compare 5 games this year to a whole season's worth of stats 7 years ago. Still, it may be worth noting that by season's end in 2010, we may not have faced a pass defense as good as AU's or UGA's. Using the same stats that I referenced above, here were the best pass defenses we faced in 2010:


Opponents' QB Rating

Bama - 9th
LSU - 28th
Arkansas - 39th
Kentucky - 40th


Opponents' Yards Per Attempt

Bama - 20th
LSU - 38th
Arkansas - 57th
Kentucky - 61st

Most of those teams were better per S&P+ pass defense rankings that year (8th, 12th, 21st, 56th, respectively; also, AU was 37th in that metric despite it's not-so-hot traditional pass defense stats), but you get the picture. And let's not forget how things went for Relf when he passed against SEC teams. 6 TDs, 10 INTs, the 10th ranked QB rating in the SEC, and the 11th ranked completion % in the SEC.

Shifting gears a bit, what makes me even more upset than our passing offense against elite passing defenses is our passing defense against UGA and AU. AU's ranks in the traditional stat categories we're talking about are admittedly in the top 15, but UGA's are in the mid-30s. Our national, FBS-game-only ranks in opposing QB rating and yards per attempt? 101st and 111th. Out of 130.

Yikes.

It's like the pass offense numbers in that they're skewed by two bad games against two great teams, but even more so on this side of the ball. UGA's and AU's QB ratings and yards per attempt against us? QB ratings of 270 and 253, and YPA of 16.8 and 15.7. WTF? I didn't even know QB ratings went that high. And 16 and 17 yards per pass attempt? The best QB rating and highest YPA in the country right now both belong to OU, and theirs are 217 and 12.5. So in two consecutive games, neither of which were against a passing offense that's firmly in the top 10 nationally, we let opponents have nationally outstanding days passing the football. That ain't gonna get it done.

If we're still that piss poor come season's end, I'll be disappointed in Grantham and the secondary coaches. But for now, I'm cool with blaming good ole Peter Sirmon. We finished last year in those two categories pretty much where we are right now (104th nationally in opponents' QB rating and 94th in YPA), so it's indeed a pretty big hole to come out of.

Ok. That's all I've got. I'll carry on with my rocking Friday night of football-stat reading and solo scotch drinking. Fatherhood!

[Commercecomet24]

The passing game against UGA and Auburn was atrocious any which way you slice it. Missed reads, skipped reads (according to Mullen, at least), drops, etc.

But let's keep things in context.

We've played four FBS teams this year. Here are their national defensive ranks in, (1) opponents' QB rating, and (2) yards per opponents' passing attempt (both of which are against other FBS teams, so no stats from games vs. FCS teams included):

Opponents' QB Rating

La. Tech - 43rd
LSU - 32nd
UGA - 1st
AU - 11th

Opponents' Yards Per Attempt

La. Tech - 32nd
LSU - 14th
UGA - 1st
AU - 7th

The S&P+ and FEI passing defense ranks aren't out yet (they come out after Week 7), but LSU, UGA, and AU are all in the top 15 nationally in the overall S&P+ defense rankings.

Now, we're only six weeks into the season, so these stats are far from final. And of course LSU hasn't faced a murderer's row of FBS passing offenses (us, Troy, Syracuse, and FL). But still, with the data that we've got, we haven't played a bad or even bottom half FBS pass defense so far.

Against two pass defenses that have so far been average to good (La. Tech and LSU), our pass offense was solid. QB ratings of ~160 in each, 65% completion percentage in each, 5 TDs, 1 INT. It wasn't prolific, mind you -- 312 yards combined in those two games. But I don't think it's designed to be. At its best with our current lineup, it's efficient and effective. And that's exactly what it was against what are currently top 40 and a top 25 pass defenses.

Against the No. 1 pass defense in college football on the road? Yeah, not so much. Against a top 10 pass defense, again on the road? Nope.

Now, that doesn't mean we shouldn't have been able to produce more against UGA and AU. I'd like to think that our passing offense should be far enough along with Fitz in charge since the early part of last season to at least keep things decent against pass defenses that good.

But it may be a little early to say that Fitz and crew have been terrible across the board.

Also, about Relf in 2010, it's hard to compare 5 games this year to a whole season's worth of stats 7 years ago. Still, it may be worth noting that by season's end in 2010, we may not have faced a pass defense as good as AU's or UGA's. Using the same stats that I referenced above, here were the best pass defenses we faced in 2010:


Opponents' QB Rating

Bama - 9th
LSU - 28th
Arkansas - 39th
Kentucky - 40th


Opponents' Yards Per Attempt

Bama - 20th
LSU - 38th
Arkansas - 57th
Kentucky - 61st

Most of those teams were better per S&P+ pass defense rankings that year (8th, 12th, 21st, 56th, respectively; also, AU was 37th in that metric despite it's not-so-hot traditional pass defense stats), but you get the picture. And let's not forget how things went for Relf when he passed against SEC teams. 6 TDs, 10 INTs, the 10th ranked QB rating in the SEC, and the 11th ranked completion % in the SEC.

Shifting gears a bit, what makes me even more upset than our passing offense against elite passing defenses is our passing defense against UGA and AU. AU's ranks in the traditional stat categories we're talking about are admittedly in the top 15, but UGA's are in the mid-30s. Our national, FBS-game-only ranks in opposing QB rating and yards per attempt? 101st and 111th. Out of 130.

Yikes.

It's like the pass offense numbers in that they're skewed by two bad games against two great teams, but even more so on this side of the ball. UGA's and AU's QB ratings and yards per attempt against us? QB ratings of 270 and 253, and YPA of 16.8 and 15.7. WTF? I didn't even know QB ratings went that high. And 16 and 17 yards per pass attempt? The best QB rating and highest YPA in the country right now both belong to OU, and theirs are 217 and 12.5. So in two consecutive games, neither of which were against a passing offense that's firmly in the top 10 nationally, we let opponents have nationally outstanding days passing the football.

Ok. That's all I've got. I'll carry on with my rocking Friday night of football-stat reading and solo scotch drinking. Fatherhood!

Dang man thats some great research. Good stuff, thanks. Puts things in a better perspective.

[BrunswickDawg]

Great stuff Pain. Personally, I think everyone is over analyzing what happened against AU and UGa. We ran into back to back buzz saws. It sucked. We get back to what we were the 1st 3 games, and we will win out save Bama. If we don?t, we will be staring at 6-6 like last year. It?s that simple.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Dang man thats some great research. Good stuff, thanks. Puts things in a better perspective.

Thanks, man. And kudos to you for even reading that whole mess. Looking back after posting, I see that's a ginormous glob of words. TLDR away, people.

[Commercecomet24]

Thanks, man. And kudos to you for even reading that whole mess. Looking back after posting, I see that's a ginormous glob of words. TLDR away, people.

Youre welcome. I?m a stats/data guy so Im always intrigued, especially with in depth research like that. Really, really good stuff.

[confucius say]

So many of you guys want Fitz to be what he isn't, a throwing QB. Fitz is a athlete playing QB just like Relf. He is not Dak and never will be. Fitz needs an elite OL to be truly successful and the last time I looked we barely have a SEC quality line. Like all option QBs his bread and butter is the short pass and we need to get our TEs and RBs more involved in the passing game otherwise it's 8 men in the box and we get stuffed at the line.

Fitz is a much better passer than relf. Not even close. Now he is not a good passer at this point, still a ways to go. But much better passer than relf.

[confucius say]

First off, we don't drop 7 balls a game. Not even close. Maybe one game a year that will happen and that's for every team in football. I watch NFL games where they drop multiple passes a game every week. Good QBs throw WRs open. Dak did it all the damn time. Fitz cannot do it. He just doesn't see it. And that's what makes a good QB good. Any average QB can hit a guy streaking down the field wide open. That's usually indicative of a coverage bust more than some great route being ran anyway.

I didn't say we drop 7 per game. I said ours have dropped 7 in A game.

And that's not for every team in football. Name me two other games you've seen this year with 7 drops from one team.

And hell no fitz can't do what dak did. Dak was all pro as a rookie. He is a top 10 or higher qb in the NFL. That's the problem: people are comparing fitz to dak. Fitz has a ways to go still, but the wr are the much bigger problem right now. We have a solid qb and sunbelt wr.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Great stuff Pain. Personally, I think everyone is over analyzing what happened against AU and UGa. We ran into back to back buzz saws. It sucked. We get back to what we were the 1st 3 games, and we will win out save Bama. If we don?t, we will be staring at 6-6 like last year. It?s that simple.

Having just done my own over-analysis of the whole thing, yeah, you're probably right. Other than Alabama, no other defense we play will be in the same league as AU and UGA. (Hell, UGA's or AU's defenses may turn out to be just as good if not better than Bama's by the end of the year for all we know. They're both yielding a few less yards per play than Bama's right now.) Really, none of the others' defenses save Bama's may even be as good as LSU's either. (We'll find out more about them this weekend, of course.)

[Commercecomet24]

Having just done my own over-analysis of the whole thing, yeah, you're probably right. Other than Alabama, no other defense we play will be in the same league as AU and UGA. (Hell, UGA's or AU's defenses may turn out to be just as good if not better than Bama's by the end of the year for all we know. They're both yielding a few less yards per play than Bama's right now.) Really, none may even be as good as LSU's either. (We'll find out more about them this weekend, of course.)

IMO uga maybe the equal to bama on defense right now(sorry tusk), with auburn not far behind.

[Commercecomet24]

Uga, auburn and bama are the NFL portion of our schedule lol

[BiscuitEater]

1) You do understand that we have played LSU, GA & Auburn?
2) We beat LSU soundly 37-7
3) BYU did NOT get past the 50 against LSU (see #2)

D has to play aggressively like they did against LSU
O must play like they did against LSU
That is all ..

[TimberBeast]

That?s a fallacy. Everybody drops balls. I?ve searched for drop stats and cannot find them. Bama, OM, and every other team in the country drops balls every week

Nonsense, have you watched us play, and watched other teams play as well? My 8 year old daughter wouldn't drop as many passes as our receivers PER GAME. If you're not seeing it it's because you don't want to. It's bad.

[TimberBeast]

I'm just gonna bump this for BeastMan. We might have dropped 7 already in the first damn quarter. It is a big problem.

[thf24]

Maybe it's not statistically observable, but if you can't see that a way above average number of drops are a huge factor in our passing struggles, I don't know what to tell you. It can't be more obvious.

[BeastMan]

I'm just gonna bump this for BeastMan. We might have dropped 7 already in the first damn quarter. It is a big problem.

How bout dat throw on the goaline? Was that a bad route?

[Leeshouldveflanked]

How bout dat throw on the goaline? Was that a bad route?

Receiver got both hands on the ball.... should have been caught.

[BeastMan]

Receiver got both hands on the ball.... should have been caught.

Was a horrible throw

[BeastMan]

Back foot, lazy mechanics, horrible INT again

[Bully13]

Looked at some stats today and noticed a few alarming passing efficiency stats.

-Vs SEC opponents, Fitz is 2nd to last in the conference in passer rating only ahead of Dormandy (UT)

-Vs P5 opponents with a winning record, Fitz is 99th nationally in passer rating (and they only rate to 100).

-Fitz is 5th in the league in passing attempts and 13th in the league in yards

BYU is 37th nationally is passing defense allowing 200 ypg but what I think is a better indicator is passer rating against which is 104th nationally mainly due to a 8 to 3 TD to INT ratio and a 66.3% completion percentage (which is 118th nationally).

In short, Fitz has been awful throwing the ball but this BYU defense is bad against the pass. To be fair, some of Fitz's numbers are skewed having played 2 elite defenses in UGA and Auburn. This is a 4 game stretch where he can rise back toward the middle of the pack. I'm really hoping we see some growth in the passing game the next 4 games.

sometimes.

[msstate7]

Beastman, you?d have more credibility if you gave credit for the good throws. It?s obvious fitz touched you inappropriately and I?m sorry for that.

Does fitz need to improve? Yes, but he?s hardly as bad as you cry about here

[BeastMan]

Beastman, you?d have more credibility if you gave credit for the good throws. It?s obvious fitz touched you inappropriately and I?m sorry for that.

Does fitz need to improve? Yes, but he?s hardly as bad as you cry about here

Haha. I like Fitz. I just am in touch with reality about what he is. I watch our boards run down the WRs all day everyday as the reason the passing offense doesn’t click. Fitz is an equal partner in that if not more. Fitz just threw a horrible throw off his back foot and you’re mad at me. How does that make sense?

[msstate7]

Haha. I like Fitz. I just am in touch with reality about what he is. I watch our boards run down the WRs all day everyday as the reason the passing offense doesn’t click. Fitz is an equal partner in that if not more. Fitz just threw a horrible throw off his back foot and you’re mad at me. How does that make sense?

Not mad... just think you have a bone to pick with fitz. I was critical of first int. Without fitz, we win 5 games... maybe

[BeastMan]

Not mad... just think you have a bone to pick with fitz. I was critical of first int. Without fitz, we win 5 games... maybe

You’re exactly right. He’s the best we got. You don’t see me call to bench him. He frustrates me passing the ball because he is so inconsistent. If Nick could throw the ball he’d be the best QB in the SEC because he’s the most dynamic runner. Has a cannon arm.

[msstate7]

You’re exactly right. He’s the best we got. You don’t see me call to bench him. He frustrates me passing the ball because he is so inconsistent. If Nick could throw the ball he’d be the best QB in the SEC because he’s the most dynamic runner. Has a cannon arm.
Better WRs would make his job easier... bigger windows. We?re just a good team, no where near great. I?m gonna be thrilled with our 8 wins

[BeastMan]

Better WRs would make his job easier... bigger windows. We?re just a good team, no where near great. I?m gonna be thrilled with our 8 wins

Better WRs have nothing to do with having a total mechanical breakdown and throwing a critical INT. Odell Beckham could have been the guy in that route and it’s still a pick.

[msstate7]

Better WRs have nothing to do with having a total mechanical breakdown and throwing a critical INT. Odell Beckham could have been the guy in that route and it’s still a pick.

Would obj have caught the other 6 drops?

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Without the drops Fitz would have been 25-30 for 300 yards.... still accounted for 4TD's while sick to his stomach.