Weather Dawgs - Hurricane Nate

[TimberBeast]

What do you guys think about the storm to our South? Nothing about it looks good right now for the Gulf Coast.

[starkvegasdawg]

It?s forecast to make landfall as a Cat 1 hurricane. Models show landfall anywhere from LA to FL panhandle. My best guess is orange beach to Panama City.

[Jack Lambert]

It?s forecast to make landfall as a Cat 1 hurricane. Models show landfall anywhere from LA to FL panhandle. My best guess is orange beach to Panama City.

So that includes the land mass between LA and Fl?

[starkvegasdawg]

So that includes the land mass between LA and Fl?

Certainly can?t rule out a hit to that uninhabited area. All going to depend how quick a front coming down can pick it up and push it north and then northeast.

[shoeless joe]

Don't want a hurricane but do want rain on my food plots. Any chance we have some non tropical related rain to look forward to?

[DownwardDawg]

Don't want a hurricane but do want rain on my food plots. Any chance we have some non tropical related rain to look forward to?

I'm planting later and later these days. A couple of my plots looked terrible last year because of the drought. The one behind my house? I planted it close to thanksgiving right before a rain. It was beautiful at Christmas and through the season.

[MaroonFlounder]

Is there a name to this storm yet?

I'm supposed to be in Gulf shores/Orange Beach for the Shrimp Festival starting Thurs. Oct 12th. Hope I will be in the clear.

[starkvegasdawg]

It?s not named yet but it will be Nate when it is. We?ve got some some rain chances this weekend. 50% here in Vegas as it stands now. Obviously much higher if the system takes a more westward trajectory.

[shoeless joe]

It?s not named yet but it will be Nate when it is. We?ve got some some rain chances this weekend. 50% here in Vegas as it stands now. Obviously much higher if the system takes a more westward trajectory.

Thanks. I've been seein the rain chances increase for The Weekend around here but didn't know if that was based solely off this storm.

[Spiderman]

I'm planting later and later these days. A couple of my plots looked terrible last year because of the drought. The one behind my house? I planted it close to thanksgiving right before a rain. It was beautiful at Christmas and through the season.

I planted one plot the Monday after the Egg Bowl last year. Turned out fine

[SaintDawg]

Weatherman says... (Tips cap to Woody Assaf) GFS model has it hitting us and LA. EURO says Bama and Fla panhandle. Lookin like a coinflip.

[Mimi's Babies]

It?s not named yet but it will be Nate when it is. We?ve got some some rain chances this weekend. 50% here in Vegas as it stands now. Obviously much higher if the system takes a more westward trajectory.

PLEASE Dear Jesus, Let it rain..... The ponds are very low...

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest forecast track has shifted slightly west. NHC has the center of the cone around Pensacola now. Have to see if this is a trend or a hiccup in the models.

[TimberBeast]

Latest forecast track has shifted slightly west. NHC has the center of the cone around Pensacola now. Have to see if this is a trend or a hiccup in the models.

Man I hope not, I was hoping they would start moving it east.

[starkvegasdawg]

We now have tropical storm Nate. Forecast track very similar to Katrina, but not going to be anywhere near the intensity. May be time to scratch a hurricane chase off the list of things to do.

[Hasu Dackds]

Good news is, Cat 1s aren't too bad. Bad news is, these things can spin up very fast. Remember Opal? Was forecasted like this and was a Cat 4 when it nailed Navarre.

[TimberBeast]

Good news is, Cat 1s aren't too bad. Bad news is, these things can spin up very fast. Remember Opal? Was forecasted like this and was a Cat 4 when it nailed Navarre.

Yeah that's what I'm worried about, it's no big deal until it gets in the Gulf and explodes.

[starkvegasdawg]

Yeah that's what I'm worried about, it's no big deal until it gets in the Gulf and explodes.

Fortunately, water temps are bathtub hot right now. The central and northern Gulf are showing low 80?s with 80 being the threshold to maintain a tropical system. Back during Katrina they were near 90. Right now I?m really not looking for this to explode into a monster.

[TimberBeast]

Fortunately, water temps are bathtub hot right now. The central and northern Gulf are showing low 80?s with 80 being the threshold to maintain a tropical system. Back during Katrina they were near 90. Right now I?m really not looking for this to explode into a monster.

I hope you're right, and thanks for answering the weather questions.

[TheRef]

Fortunately, water temps are bathtub hot right now. The central and northern Gulf are showing low 80?s with 80 being the threshold to maintain a tropical system. Back during Katrina they were near 90. Right now I?m really not looking for this to explode into a monster.

Neither am I. This system is a fast-mover and won't want to sit in the middle of the tub. Nate wants to get the 17 out of there right now. Helps that there's a front that's gonna be pushing through soon that will motivate Nate a little further. Will be interesting to watch the track on this considering Nate is moving so quickly through the Central American area. Also, the track has shifted even further West to make landfall near NOLA or the MS/AL Gulf Coast. Hopefully we start seeing a trend to the East a little, but I doubt it. The cone of confidence is pretty set. Remember, though, that the cone only speaks for the eye of the storm. The effects will be much further out than the cone. So even if you aren't in the cone, you can still be affected by Nate.

[starkvegasdawg]

I see they?ve slowed a timing a little. Morning advisory had landfall around 2:00am. Latest has it 8:00am. If it can stay around then I may head down there. Got my wife?s birthday party Saturday evening so would have to wait until it?s over to leave. Been married long enough to know not to skip out on that.

[TimberBeast]

I see they?ve slowed a timing a little. Morning advisory had landfall around 2:00am. Latest has it 8:00am. If it can stay around then I may head down there. Got my wife?s birthday party Saturday evening so would have to wait until it?s over to leave. Been married long enough to know not to skip out on that.

If it's slowing down then I assume that gives it more time to strengthen though right?

[Hasu Dackds]

If it's slowing down then I assume that gives it more time to strengthen though right?

Wasn't that way with Opal. It was moving super fast and strengthened quickly too.

[starkvegasdawg]

If it's slowing down then I assume that gives it more time to strengthen though right?
Don?t think it?ll slow that much. Six hours isn?t much time.

[preachermatt83]

What are the chances for rain looking like for Saturday? In central ms.

[starkvegasdawg]

What are the chances for rain looking like for Saturday? In central ms.

Right now rain chances will be ready the further south and east you are in MS. But exact area will depend on track.

[Todd4State]

Any chance at all that this misses NOLA?

[notsofarawaydawg]

I see they?ve slowed a timing a little. Morning advisory had landfall around 2:00am. Latest has it 8:00am. If it can stay around then I may head down there. Got my wife?s birthday party Saturday evening so would have to wait until it?s over to leave. Been married long enough to know not to skip out on that.

Yeah, leaving early might prompt another storm named "StarksWife." **

[starkvegasdawg]

Yeah, leaving early might prompt another storm named "StarksWife." **

And it?d be a Cat 5.

[TheRef]

Any chance at all that this misses NOLA?

Small chance.

[TimberBeast]

Small chance.

So where do you think it goes ref? Do you think it goes towards Louisiana or Florida or straight at Mississippi? Like I said earlier in this thread my fear is that it gets in the Gulf, gets stronger than anyone is anticipating and then we have a problem.

[TheRef]

So where do you think it goes ref? Do you think it goes towards Louisiana or Florida or straight at Mississippi? Like I said earlier in this thread my fear is that it gets in the Gulf, gets stronger than anyone is anticipating and then we have a problem.

I see it taking a similar track to Katrina as far as making a slight landfall on SE LA then hit the MS coast. Impacts will be seen further than that simply because of the size of the system.

[TimberBeast]

I see it taking a similar track to Katrina as far as making a slight landfall on SE LA then hit the MS coast. Impacts will be seen further than that simply because of the size of the system.

Any guesses on the strength when it hits? I keep seeing cat 1, but I guess we won't know much until tomorrow.

[TheRef]

Any guesses on the strength when it hits? I keep seeing cat 1, but I guess we won't know much until tomorrow.

Cat 1 will probably be the top end of it. Storm surge and rain would be interesting to watch.

[tireddawg]

Cat 1, 60 mph winds, 5 inches of rain. Everyone seems to be freaking out. I played in this type weather as a kid. Not arguing, just asking. What am I missing?

[turkish]

Hell I'm freaking out cuz it looks like it's gonna miss me.

[TimberBeast]

Cat 1, 60 mph winds, 5 inches of rain. Everyone seems to be freaking out. I played in this type weather as a kid. Not arguing, just asking. What am I missing?

If it stays that way it's no big deal, the question is does it stay that way after it gets in the Gulf?

[Bully13]

Hell I'm freaking out cuz it looks like it's gonna miss me.

me too Turk, Ft Worth could use some rain. but I think Nate is going to pitch it just a LIIITLE bit out side for North Texas.

[TimberBeast]

Cat 1 will probably be the top end of it. Storm surge and rain would be interesting to watch.

So ref, any changes? Are you guys still thinking the same thing as far as where it hits and how strong it will be?

[ScoobaDawg]

Storm is currently moving NNW at 21mph. So we are talking about it FLYING through the gulf. in 20 hours from now it will be a couple hundred miles off the coast and predicted to make landfall around 1am as a Cat1.
It won't have time to enjoy the temps of the Gulf.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh/AL162017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/212738_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[TheRef]

So ref, any changes? Are you guys still thinking the same thing as far as where it hits and how strong it will be?

What Scooba said. I'm confident

[parabrave]

Water is already up in the yard. Traffic sucks. All the crusin the coast people leaving when the bridges are open to let the boats in the bays and rivers.

[RocketDawg]

Cat 1 will probably be the top end of it. Storm surge and rain would be interesting to watch.

Wasn't Ike a few years ago "just" a Cat 1 ... but did a lot of devastation in Texas anyway? I seem to remember is pretty much sat in one place for a while, and dumped plenty of rain.

[TheRef]

Wasn't Ike a few years ago "just" a Cat 1 ... but did a lot of devastation in Texas anyway? I seem to remember is pretty much sat in one place for a while, and dumped plenty of rain.

Cat 1 is simply a measurement of wind. That's why I said storm surge and rain would be interesting to watch. Don't let a category define your response to a storm.

[parabrave]

Cantore headed to Gulf Shore now. The track has been shifting all day to the east with landfall at Biloxi. Historically when the storms come up this way through the isthmus they will hit the river delta then veer to hit the Bama Fla line like Ivan did.

[Cooterpoot]

Looks like Pacagoula/Ocean Springs now. And likely 110ish mph winds based off my best guess without turning on the tv. Time to grab some batteries, beer, and gasoline. Nate’s coming in a little hot.

[starkvegasdawg]

Looks like Pacagoula/Ocean Springs now. And likely 110ish mph winds based off my best guess without turning on the tv. Time to grab some batteries, beer, and gasoline. Nate’s coming in a little hot.

Yeah, they may have underestimated his strength. What will help is he?s moving so fast he?ll make landfall before he has a chance to go full beast mode. I hope.

[Indndawg]

Cat 1 is simply a measurement of wind. That's why I said storm surge and rain would be interesting to watch. Don't let a category define your response to a storm.

don't be surprised by a western job b4 landfall. That could put H'burg, Laurel, Meridian on eastern side of storm

[Bully13]

the latest I see is that it's 245 miles south of the mouth of the Miss River. moving fast at 22 mph in a North-Northwest direction. If that holds up, wouldn't that put towns like Morgan City most at risk? what could change the trajectory at this point? I'm assuming something could because if not, the Mobile, redneck riviera area wouldn't still be in warning mode.

[starkvegasdawg]

the latest I see is that it's 245 miles south of the mouth of the Miss River. moving fast at 22 mph in a North-Northwest direction. If that holds up, wouldn't that put towns like Morgan City most at risk? what could change the trajectory at this point? I'm assuming something could because if not, the Mobile, redneck riviera area wouldn't still be in warning mode.

Approaching cold front is supposed to pick it up.

[TaleofTwoDogs]

Per NBC news writer Phil Helsel, Mississippi will be missed...

"Some 13 million Gulf Coast residents were under threat as Hurricane Nate powered toward the mainland early Saturday, bringing with it rain and storm surges to parts of Louisiana, Alabama and Florida."

Wow, we are damn lucky.

[msbulldog]

C'mon man you believe NBC? Better to believe out MSU meteorologist!

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest track has shifted it back west to dead center MS. Going to depend when the front picks it up and pushes it NE.

[Bothrops]

Remember the Gulf states are Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. Per CNN..

[TimberBeast]

Yeah, they may have underestimated his strength. What will help is he?s moving so fast he?ll make landfall before he has a chance to go full beast mode. I hope.

Yeah like I said on here a couple times, none of what was being said about what this thing was going to do made any sense. Thank God it's hauling ass because everyone I know down here is staying put because it's too late to get out now. Hopefully it will hit and get out fast.

[RocketDawg]

Last I heard there were tropical storm warnings in Birmingham, but not here. I don't remember TS warnings being issued with previous hurricanes. Is this part of the new warning system they've adopted, with "storm surge warnings" and such?

[Lord McBuckethead]

His point is they didn't list MS as a state there.

[starkvegasdawg]

Last I heard there were tropical storm warnings in Birmingham, but not here. I don't remember TS warnings being issued with previous hurricanes. Is this part of the new warning system they've adopted, with "storm surge warnings" and such?

They did it with Katrina I know. Technically, they?re inland tropical storm / hurricane warnings. They issue them because winds will be at the minimum threshold.

[TaleofTwoDogs]

His point is they didn't list MS as a state there.

Thanks.

[TimberBeast]

Last I heard there were tropical storm warnings in Birmingham, but not here. I don't remember TS warnings being issued with previous hurricanes. Is this part of the new warning system they've adopted, with "storm surge warnings" and such?

I remember when Katrina went over Meridian it was still a Hurricane 1.

[Roy Munson]

I remember when Katrina went over Meridian it was still a Hurricane 1.

Jones county was the 3rd worst county in the state hit. Nuts. That's 1.5 hours north of coast

[Commercecomet24]

Jones county was the 3rd worst county in the state hit. Nuts. That's 1.5 hours north of coast

I remember it well. Didn?t have power for 18 days, without water for 7. Jones county got hammered. Never want to see that again.

[parabrave]

I remember when Katrina went over Meridian it was still a Hurricane 1.
I remember when the water reached my chest. And I was staying at 20ft ASL in Biloxi..

[TimberBeast]

I remember when the water reached my chest. And I was staying at 20ft ASL in Biloxi..

Yeah since moving down here I've heard many horror stories about Katrina, and I really don't want any part of anything like that.

[TimberBeast]

Everybody hunkering down? Ocean Springs here and things are picking up.

[ScoobaDawg]

Everybody hunkering down? Ocean Springs here and things are picking up.

Stay indoors and safe. listen to local news if your power stays on. Tornadoes will be the biggest danger likely.

[TimberBeast]

Stay indoors and safe. listen to local news if your power stays on. Tornadoes will be the biggest danger likely.

Damn on a night where there's nothing else going on except a hurricane in MS, you moved that post so that it basically will never be seen. Good job. Some of us right now could use that thread.

[TimberBeast]

Looking at video of golden nugget on WLOX and there's 3 feet of water in there. Hope everyone is safe.

[ScoobaDawg]

Damn on a night where there's nothing else going on except a hurricane in MS, you moved that post so that it basically will never be seen. Good job. Some of us right now could use that thread.

You do realize..moving a post together makes it easier for people to find info instead of reading everything... right?
And when a new post such as yours is merged.. it's moved to be one of the top threads for people to see....

Eye is coming on land now looks like between gulfport and ocean springs.

Strongest winds (60-80mph) are between pascagoula and mobile.

[TimberBeast]

You do realize..moving a post together makes it easier for people to find info instead of reading everything... right?
And when a new post such as yours is merged.. it's moved to be one of the top threads for people to see....

Eye is coming on land now looks like between gulfport and ocean springs.

No, I started a new thread on purpose so that people on the coast would notice it. But you keep moderating freaking hurricane threads. This is not a damn AccuWeather forum.

[ScoobaDawg]

Looking at video of golden nugget on WLOX and there's 3 feet of water in there. Hope everyone is safe.

and FYI.. That's 3 feet of water in a parking garage that is at sea level. Not that surprising.

[TimberBeast]

and FYI.. That's 3 feet of water in a parking garage that is at sea level. Not that surprising.

I didn't say it was surprising, it's expected. Main thing though is make sure you get these posts all straight in the right thread so all 10 people reading them won't get confrused. Good job.

[ScoobaDawg]

The good thing is there are no tornado warnings as of now. The storm is moving through the area fast.
Also another thing to note is the observed winds at ground level compared to the 85mph readings from the HH drops.

[parabrave]

Yeah since moving down here I've heard many horror stories about Katrina, and I really don't want any part of anything like that.

Camille scared me worse. BTW storm over now a few of the Casinos got water in the 1st floors.