History shows that today's game will be decided in the 1st quarter...

[DeviousDawg]

Here is a look at our numbers against P5 schools from 2010-2017 when leading at the end of the 1st quarter, trailing at the end of the 1st quarter, leading at half time, and trailing at halftime:


-Leading at the end of Q1: (20-4)
-Trailing at the end of Q1: (5-22)


-Leading at the end of 1st Half: (27-3)
-Traling at the end of 1st Half: (1-32)


Taking a look at the 5 wins when trailing at the end of the 1st quarter:

(1) 2015 vs Kentucky: trailed 10-7 at the end of Q1, but lead 28-13 at half
(2) 2014 vs Arkansas: trailed 3-0 at the end of Q1, and trailed 10-7 at half
(3) 2013 @ Arkansas: trailed 7-0 at the end of Q1, but tied 10-10 at half
(4) 2010 @ Ole Miss: trailed 6-0 at the end of Q1, but lead 21-9 at half
(5) 2010 vs Michigan: trailed 14-10 at the end of Q1, but lead 31-14 at half


A few thoughts:

-All 5 games that we won when trailing at the end of the 1st quarter were 1 possession games at the end of the 1st quarter.
-in the 5 games that we won after trailing at the end of the 1st quarter, we outscored the opponents by a combined 80-16 in the 2nd quarter.
-the 2014 win vs Arkansas is Mullen's only P5 win since 2010 in which he trailed at half, and this was only a 3 point deficit.
-Since 2010, Mullen hasn't won a single P5 game on the road in which he trailed at half, and he has only won two P5 games on the road when trailing at the end of the 1st quarter, and MSU ended up being tied or leading at half in both of these games.


-So what does all this mean? Well, we better get off to a good start tonight. Put this in perspective, Mullen has never won a P5 game in which he trailed by 8+ points at the end of the 1st quarter, and has also never won a P5 game in which he trailed by 8+ points at the end of the 1st half. We HAVE to keep it within a score in the 1st half to even have a chance. On the flipside, if we are leading throughout the 1st half, we SHOULD win the game.

-When trailing at the end of the 1st Quarter, Mullen has gone on to win 18% of the time.
-When trailing at the end of the 1st Half, Mullen has gone on to win 3% of the time.

-When leading at the end of the 1st Quarter, Mullen has gone on to win 83% of the time.
-When leading at the end of the 1st Half, Mullen has gone on to win 90% of the time.


-So, if we are losing at the end of the 1st quarter (within a possession) we still have a decent shot at winning the game at ~20%. However, if we don't go on to win the 2nd quarter and either tie it up or lead at half, the game is essentially over judging by the 3% of games won by Mullen in which he trailed at half.

-We can't come out stagnant and wait for the game to come to us, we have to dictate. Mullen's offense is not effective and becomes one dimensional when playing from behind, but becomes even more effective when leading, as linebackers are keying on the run and the play action opens up. We really need a few turnovers, and even better, defensive/special teams Touchdowns in the 1st half. If we get down 14-0, or even 10-0, history says that we have a 0% chance of winning the game. Get on em early and close it out in the 2nd half.

-We can win this game, and you will probably know if we will by halftime, here's to a 2014-esque start to the Auburn game. That is what it is going to take to win this game.

[RocketDawg]

I guess in that case we can just turn over and watch Clemson/VaTech. ** No need to watch Alabama because we already know the outcome of that game.

And these are scary stats:

"-When trailing at the end of the 1st Quarter, Mullen has gone on to win 18% of the time.
-When trailing at the end of the 1st Half, Mullen has gone on to win 3% of the time."

I had no idea it was that bad.

[Pollodawg]

Is it odd that I just don't really care? I've felt myself slowly losing interest in college football for a while now. We just need a whipping today, so I can check out entirely. Lol

[Dawgology]

I mentioned this earlier in the week. The way to beat a Mullen team is pull out the razzle dazzle in your first series and get and score first. At that point he retreats into his shell and he’s beat. The stats above support this.

[gravedigger]

Here is a look at our numbers against P5 schools from 2010-2017 when leading at the end of the 1st quarter, trailing at the end of the 1st quarter, leading at half time, and trailing at halftime:


-Leading at the end of Q1: (20-4)
-Trailing at the end of Q1: (5-22)


-Leading at the end of 1st Half: (27-3)
-Traling at the end of 1st Half: (1-32)


Taking a look at the 5 wins when trailing at the end of the 1st quarter:

(1) 2015 vs Kentucky: trailed 10-7 at the end of Q1, but lead 28-13 at half
(2) 2014 vs Arkansas: trailed 3-0 at the end of Q1, and trailed 10-7 at half
(3) 2013 @ Arkansas: trailed 7-0 at the end of Q1, but tied 10-10 at half
(4) 2010 @ Ole Miss: trailed 6-0 at the end of Q1, but lead 21-9 at half
(5) 2010 vs Michigan: trailed 14-10 at the end of Q1, but lead 31-14 at half


A few thoughts:

-All 5 games that we won when trailing at the end of the 1st quarter were 1 possession games at the end of the 1st quarter.
-in the 5 games that we won after trailing at the end of the 1st quarter, we outscored the opponents by a combined 80-16 in the 2nd quarter.
-the 2014 win vs Arkansas is Mullen's only P5 win since 2010 in which he trailed at half, and this was only a 3 point deficit.
-Since 2010, Mullen hasn't won a single P5 game on the road in which he trailed at half, and he has only won two P5 games on the road when trailing at the end of the 1st quarter, and MSU ended up being tied or leading at half in both of these games.


-So what does all this mean? Well, we better get off to a good start tonight. Put this in perspective, Mullen has never won a P5 game in which he trailed by 8+ points at the end of the 1st quarter, and has also never won a P5 game in which he trailed by 8+ points at the end of the 1st half. We HAVE to keep it within a score in the 1st half to even have a chance. On the flipside, if we are leading throughout the 1st half, we SHOULD win the game.

-When trailing at the end of the 1st Quarter, Mullen has gone on to win 18% of the time.
-When trailing at the end of the 1st Half, Mullen has gone on to win 3% of the time.

-When leading at the end of the 1st Quarter, Mullen has gone on to win 83% of the time.
-When leading at the end of the 1st Half, Mullen has gone on to win 90% of the time.


-So, if we are losing at the end of the 1st quarter (within a possession) we still have a decent shot at winning the game at ~20%. However, if we don't go on to win the 2nd quarter and either tie it up or lead at half, the game is essentially over judging by the 3% of games won by Mullen in which he trailed at half.

-We can't come out stagnant and wait for the game to come to us, we have to dictate. Mullen's offense is not effective and becomes one dimensional when playing from behind, but becomes even more effective when leading, as linebackers are keying on the run and the play action opens up. We really need a few turnovers, and even better, defensive/special teams Touchdowns in the 1st half. If we get down 14-0, or even 10-0, history says that we have a 0% chance of winning the game. Get on em early and close it out in the 2nd half.

-We can win this game, and you will probably know if we will by halftime, here's to a 2014-esque start to the Auburn game. That is what it is going to take to win this game.

Interesting. While I believe that the value of statistics are not properly diminished over time, I do think these indicate that Mullen is not very good at adjusting after the 2nd quarter. Seems like he has a plan B in most games. He's also good at sticking with a plan in spite of early setbacks. But when he gets bogged down, he doesnt seem to recover at all.

Probably goes back to not wanting to admit he didnt have an effective game plan (offensively) in the first place. Dawg61 made a good point earlier about his needing someone to be a devil's advocate on his shoulder.

[Snowman79]

So how do these Mullen specific stats compare to other current D1 coaches?

[gravedigger]

So how do these Mullen specific stats compare to other current D1 coaches?

fair question. I imagine not very good, however, an additional stat of how OFTEN they are in that position might also tell a story.

[ILOATHEBears]

fair question. I imagine not very good, however, an additional stat of how OFTEN they are in that position might also tell a story.

Maybe he saw his terrible win percentage against ranked teams scrolling at bottom of the ESPN ticker last night and it motivates him to go balls to the wall

[Snowman79]

I would imagine that the majority of teams that end the first quarter trailing and/or the first half trailing would likely lose. But I could be completely off here.

[TaleofTwoDogs]

Is it odd that I just don't really care? I've felt myself slowly losing interest in college football for a while now. We just need a whipping today, so I can check out entirely. Lol

No, especially if your a dawg fan. The emotional roller coaster known as Miss State football will beat you down. Highs and lows one week apart can really kill your enthusiasm for the sport plus the status quo of the elite teams doesn't help.

[Pinto]

Bump. Time to drink. We are done.

[BulldogBear]

No, especially if your a dawg fan. The emotional roller coaster known as Miss State football will beat you down. Highs and lows one week apart can really kill your enthusiasm for the sport plus the status quo of the elite teams doesn't help.
We apparently can't deal with the noise on the road. And receivers can't win a battle for the ball.


Bump. Time to drink. We are done.

How bad does LSU suck!? Eddie O will be gone after next season.

[bulldawg28]

I throw that out against Auburn. It's been a 4 qtr game there this decade

[Todd4State]

Well, at least we know to turn this thing off.