Sagarin Ratings....

[TUSK]

I know a lot of yall aren't into star ratings, data, and other such metrics, but I thought yall'd dig on this, anyway:

1 Alabama
2 Oklahoma
3 Clemson
4 Ohio State
5 Okie State
6 Wisconsin
7 Penn State
8 Washington
9 FSU
10 USC
11 Miss State
12 Michigan
13 Auburn
14 LSU
15 Georgia
16 Notre Dame
17 TCU
18 Va Tech
19 Oregon
20 Miami

[bulldawg28]

WTH is a sagarin rating?

[TUSK]

WTH is a sagarin rating?

it's some egghead type shit, buddy... lots of cypherin, "mathematical expectation", etc and seech....

dig it: https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

[msbulldog]

Thanks Tusk, I still don't like warrior river trade school folks.

[TUSK]

Thanks Tusk, I still don't like warrior river trade school folks.

I prolly dislike a lot of em more than you, buddy.

[Howboutdemdogs]

Saragin is the base for the Vegas bookies use on spreads before using any other information. Excluding the occasional and true upsets, the game formula is probably the most consistent in winning,,,,,especially the money line.

[MetEdDawg]

For whatever ESPN's percentages are worth, they are now shifting the game in our favor against UGA. Last I saw we were at 52.3% chance to win.

[RocketDawg]

I know a lot of yall aren't into star ratings, data, and other such metrics, but I thought yall'd dig on this, anyway:

1 Alabama
2 Oklahoma
3 Clemson
4 Ohio State
5 Okie State
6 Wisconsin
7 Penn State
8 Washington
9 FSU
10 USC
11 Miss State
12 Michigan
13 Auburn
14 LSU
15 Georgia
16 Notre Dame
17 TCU
18 Va Tech
19 Oregon
20 Miami

You gotta qualify that ... interested only when it's advantageous. **

[TUSK]

You gotta qualify that ... interested only when it's advantageous. **

egggggggggggggggggzactly.... LOL

+1

[HSVDawg]

Saragin is the base for the Vegas bookies use on spreads before using any other information. Excluding the occasional and true upsets, the game formula is probably the most consistent in winning,,,,,especially the money line.

So why are we a 6.5 point dog to a team ranked 4 spots below us? It can't be that big of a component on the spread or our game this weekend would be a pick em at worst.

[TUSK]

So why are we a 6.5 point dog to a team ranked 4 spots below us? It can't be that big of a component on the spread or our game this weekend would be a pick em at worst.

Vegas doesn't care "who's gonna win"... they just want the money bet evenly...

MSU 88.02
UGA 85.21

2.81-2.41 (home field) = 0.40

So, if I did that correctly, Sagarin has MSU -.040

So, yes... a "pick em".... per Sagarin...

Edit: also take in to account that the further the season goes on, the more accurate the ratings become due to an increased data sample size.

[ShotgunDawg]

Saragin is the base for the Vegas bookies use on spreads before using any other information. Excluding the occasional and true upsets, the game formula is probably the most consistent in winning,,,,,especially the money line.

So why is Georgia -6 when we are ahead in the Sagrin ratings?

[Dallas_Dawg]

So why is Georgia -6 when we are ahead in the Sagrin ratings?
Because of perception. That's it. People in Vegas still see us playing the "great" Georgia Bulldogs between the hedges.
So basically, load up on State. I should have had the balls to do it last week but didn't

[TUSK]

So why is Georgia -6 when we are ahead in the Sagrin ratings?

Vegas doesn't care "who's gonna win"... they just want the money bet evenly...

MSU 88.02
UGA 85.21

2.81-2.41 (home field) = 0.40

So, if I did that correctly, Sagarin has MSU -.040

So, yes... a "pick em".... per Sagarin...

Edit: also take in to account that the further the season goes on, the more accurate the ratings become due to an increased data sample size.

[TUSK]

Because of perception. That's it. People in Vegas still see us playing the "great" Georgia Bulldogs between the hedges.
So basically, load up on State. I should have had the balls to do it last week but didn't

almost correct... Vegas gauges how the betting public sees UGA/MSU....

If all the MSU fans started betting on MSU +6, the line would gravitate towards zero and possibly beyond... but that's unlikely...

sometimes lines will jump BOTH early AND late, as well....

[HSVDawg]

Because of perception. That's it. People in Vegas still see us playing the "great" Georgia Bulldogs between the hedges.
So basically, load up on State. I should have had the balls to do it last week but didn't

Yeah that is more along what I was thinking too, but that kinda refutes the fact that Sagarin is the basis for anything that Vegas does.

[TUSK]

Yeah that is more along what I was thinking too, but that kinda refutes the fact that Sagarin is the basis for anything that Vegas does.

I think he meant "baseline"... a starting point...

Then they'll (sometimes) move it a few/several points based on a myriad of things before putting it out there....

My guess is that they estimate a lot more money coming in on the UGAs and want to get ahead of the curve...

[dawgoneyall]

WTH is a sagarin rating?

Been in USA today for approx 30 years.
Actually pretty good.

[Lumpy Chucklelips]

Here's a betting stat for you.....

Since 2014, Miss. State has been a dog of 6 or more points 10 times. Have covered 8 of those 10, winning 5 outright. Ding-Dong damnit.

[TUSK]

Here's a betting stat for you.....

Since 2014, Miss. State has been a dog of 6 or more points 10 times. Have covered 8 of those 10, winning 5 outright. Ding-Dong damnit.

How much ya plunking down on this lock?

[KentuckyDawg13]

I prefer ESPN's Team Efficiency ranking, MSU #2:
http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/tab/efficiency


2017 Team Efficiencies
RK TEAM OFFENSE DEFENSE SPECIAL TMS OVERALL
1 Oklahoma State, Big 12 97.8 92.5 28.8 98.0
2 Miss St, SEC 82.4 95.9 72.6 95.6
3 Oklahoma, Big 12 97.1 78.5 22.2 93.8
4 Alabama, SEC 87.8 83.2 82.8 93.3
5 Maryland, Big Ten 96.9 73.9 66.5 92.8
6 Washington, Pac-12 85.3 76.7 97.1 92.8
7 Clemson, ACC 83.4 94.1 34.6 92.4
8 Penn State, Big Ten 84.1 82.3 81.4 91.4
9 Wake Forest, ACC 69.6 89.8 59.5 86.7
10 Houston, American 53.6 95.1 59.2 86.3
11 TCU, Big 12 81.6 69.8 77.6 85.3
12 Georgia, SEC 59.4 92.1 52.7 84.5
13 Oregon, Pac-12 89.1 69.9 24.0 84.3
14 Duke, ACC 63.0 96.3 20.0 82.1
15 Vanderbilt, SEC 61.8 88.7 49.5 81.9
16 OSU, Big Ten 78.5 69.2 72.5 81.8
17 Wisconsin, Big Ten 77.3 79.3 41.6 81.8
18 Purdue, Big Ten 75.9 83.1 23.8 80.9
19 UTSA, C-USA 69.9 86.1 24.5 79.8
20 LSU, SEC 82.7 70.2 34.0 79.7
RK TEAM OFFENSE DEFENSE SPECIAL TMS OVERALL
21 UCF, American 75.3 69.4 59.5 78.7
22 Stanford, Pac-12 85.6 51.5 75.0 76.7
23 Kansas State, Big 12 70.9 65.5 74.4 76.4
24 San Diego State, MW 57.1 80.2 73.2 76.1
25 Georgia Tech, ACC 87.2 54.0 19.7 75.4

[DancingRabbit]

I prefer ESPN's Team Efficiency ranking, MSU #2:
http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/tab/efficiency

"We Try Harder"

Yeah, I prefer that one too.