LSU opens -6.5

[Jacksondevildog]

nm

[Bully13]

Will be interesting to see how the fluctuations pan out throughout the week

[Bully13]

So, we go 5-7, lose To USA, squeak by Miami north, and the 12th ranked team comes in favored by a TD?

Hmmm, Vegas skeered?

[Perpetual Underachiever]

I think we'll see that line move lower as well. Public will be on the dawgs.

[ShotgunDawg]

I just don't understand Vegas.

They opened MSU vs La Tech at MSU -6 and we beat the hell of out of them.

Their lines don't make any sense.

[msstate7]

I just don't understand Vegas.

They opened MSU vs La Tech at MSU -6 and we beat the hell of out of them.

Their lines don't make any sense.

In the last 25 years, we've beat lsu 2 times.

[ShotgunDawg]

In the last 25 years, we've beat lsu 2 times.

Maybe that's the reasoning they have.

The teams themselves aren't that far apart

[Jack Lambert]

I suspect LSU fans are more worried about the match up then us. After last season we only are wanting eight wins. We don't have to win Saturday to do that. However LSU expects to win the West and they have to win to do it. Let this think in. They had a better offense last year and could only score 23 points on the worst defense in the SEC and 110th best defense in the NCAA. Our defense is alot better then last season and LSU offense is either the same or worse.

[Commercecomet24]

I suspect LSU fans are more worried about the match up then us. After last season we only are wanting eight wins. We don't have to win Saturday to do that. However LSU expects to win the West and they have to win to do it. Let this think in. They had a better offense last year and could only score 23 points on the worst defense in the SEC and 110th best defense in the NCAA. Our defense is alot better then last season and LSU offense is either the same or worse.

That's a dang good point right there!

[Kyper]

They had a better offense last year .

Based on what?

[Todd4State]

In the last 25 years, we've beat lsu 2 times.

Thanks Saban and Miles.

[Todd4State]

I suspect LSU fans are more worried about the match up then us. After last season we only are wanting eight wins. We don't have to win Saturday to do that. However LSU expects to win the West and they have to win to do it. Let this think in. They had a better offense last year and could only score 23 points on the worst defense in the SEC and 110th best defense in the NCAA. Our defense is alot better then last season and LSU offense is either the same or worse.

That game was also in Baton Rouge. They were VERY lucky we didn't beat them in 2015. It was basically us shooting ourselves in the foot and getting a delay of game penalty to knock us into Devon Bell field goal attempt range that killed us.

[anubus]

Screw Vegas game is played on field.

[Skydawg1]

I suspect LSU fans are more worried about the match up then us. After last season we only are wanting eight wins. We don't have to win Saturday to do that. However LSU expects to win the West and they have to win to do it. Let this think in. They had a better offense last year and could only score 23 points on the worst defense in the SEC and 110th best defense in the NCAA. Our defense is alot better then last season and LSU offense is either the same or worse.Y'all all know Etling is gonna have a career night against us. Prepare accordingly.

[Jack Lambert]

Y'all all know Etling is gonna have a career night against us. Prepare accordingly.

Etling has never had an elite night.

[Kyper]

Y'all all know Etling is gonna have a career night against us. Prepare accordingly.

Etling is 22-31 (71%) this season passing for 398 yards.

Fitz 28-47 (59.6) this season passing for 363 yards.

People acting like he sucks need to wake up

[was21]

Vegas link..pls...thanks

[TrapGame]

They shut down Chattanooga and BYU. BYU's offense is absolute trash. Chattanooga is just Chattanooga. We will be the first team this season to punch them in the mouth.

[TrapGame]

Etling is 22-31 (71%) this season passing for 398 yards.

Fitz 28-47 (59.6) this season passing for 363 yards.

People acting like he sucks need to wake up

Chattanooga and BYU. Really?

LaTech is better than both those teams combined.

[Jack Lambert]

Based on what?

They had more then 8 o line man. They lost Dupree, Ferguson, Dural and Chark. They were the four deep at WR's. They had two good running backs not just one.

[msstate7]

Etling is 22-31 (71%) this season passing for 398 yards.

Fitz 28-47 (59.6) this season passing for 363 yards.

People acting like he sucks need to wake up

So you think etling is the better qb.

[Kyper]

Chattanooga and BYU. Really?

LaTech is better than both those teams combined.

I'd take BYU over La Tech- especially defensively. La Tech gave up 24 points to NW State.

[Kyper]

So you think etling is the better qb.

I think Etling is the better passing QB. I think Fitz is the better overall QB. Nothing in their careers to this point says Fitz is a better passing QB than Etling

[TrapGame]

I'd take BYU over La Tech- especially defensively. La Tech gave up 24 points to NW State.

Yeah, ok. BYU had problems scoring on Portland State.

[Commercecomet24]

BYU is slow slow slow. They have scored exactly 33 points this year in 3 games. I don't think they're scaring anybody

[Kyper]

Yeah, ok. BYU had problems scoring on Portland State.

BYU has held Portland St to 6 points, LSU to 27, and Utah to 19 points. They are without a doubt better defensively than La Tech

[msstate7]

I think Etling is the better passing QB. I think Fitz is the better overall QB. Nothing in their careers to this point says Fitz is a better passing QB than Etling

Etling (soph) vs big 10...
89/162 (54.9) 800 yards 4.9 per 6 td 5 int 102.47 rating

Fitz (soph) vs sec...
196/361 (54.3) 2423 yds 6.7 per 21 td 10 int 124.33 rating

Yep, nothing in their careers says fitz can pass like etling**

[TUSK]

I think Etling is the better passing QB. I think Fitz is the better overall QB. Nothing in their careers to this point says Fitz is a better passing QB than Etling

Statistically, this is accurate (all games - 2016),,, but there's not a huge difference...

[msstate7]

Statistically, this is accurate (all games - 2016),,, but there's not a huge difference...

If you wanna compare the two, use apples to apples... etling was junior starting in some games all 3 years and fitz was a soph just getting first starts

[Kyper]

Etling (soph) vs big 10...
89/162 (54.9) 800 yards 4.9 per 6 td 5 int 102.47 rating

Fitz (soph) vs sec...
196/361 (54.3) 2423 yds 6.7 per 21 td 10 int 124.33 rating

Yep, nothing in their careers says fitz can pass like etling**

Etling in his career- 420/729 57.6% 5011 yards...28 TD's and 17 INT's

Fitz in his career- 235/422 55.6% 3021 yards...29 TD's and 11 INT's

Literally nothing separates them except Etling's INT's when he played as a true freshman while Fitz sat and watched. Since Etling has been at LSU- he throws less picks than Fitz and completes passes for more yards per pass. Facts are facts no matter how you try to skew them

[Kyper]

If you wanna compare the two, use apples to apples... etling was junior starting in some games all 3 years and fitz was a soph just getting first starts

Etling's passing numbers are better this year than Fitz's also. If we are comparing apples as you say

[Jack Lambert]

Etling's passing numbers are better this year than Fitz's also. If we are comparing apples as you say

I will never understand some of our fan base so eager to have our team suck.

[BB30]

If you wanna compare the two, use apples to apples... etling was junior starting in some games all 3 years and fitz was a soph just getting first starts

Hard to compare the two their skill sets are so different and they have played in completely different offenses.

[msstate7]

Etling in his career- 420/729 57.6% 5011 yards...28 TD's and 17 INT's

Fitz in his career- 235/422 55.6% 3021 yards...29 TD's and 11 INT's

Literally nothing separates them except Etling's INT's when he played as a true freshman while Fitz sat and watched. Since Etling has been at LSU- he throws less picks than Fitz and completes passes for more yards per pass. Facts are facts no matter how you try to skew them

Again, compare them at the same stage of their careers.

[Commercecomet24]

I will never understand some of our fan base so eager to have our team suck.

Makes you wonder about some doesn't it?

[msstate7]

Hard to compare the two their skill sets are so different and they have played in completely different offenses.

I just used passing stats for their soph years. Both were in similar situations where supporting casts were inferior talent wise to the competition. If you use rushing stats too, kyper might cry that fitz is so much better than etling

[Kyper]

I will never understand some of our fan base so eager to have our team suck.

I'll never understand why our fans cant look at actual stats and just admit some truths

[Kyper]

I just used passing stats for their soph years. Both were in similar situations where supporting casts were inferior talent wise to the competition. If you use rushing stats too, kyper might cry that fitz is so much better than etling

Fitz may be the best running QB in the nation- why would I cry? I love that. It's awesome.

But if my team had to go 70 yards to win the game by just passing by the QB and no running- I'd choose Etling

[TUSK]

If you wanna compare the two, use apples to apples... etling was junior starting in some games all 3 years and fitz was a soph just getting first starts

Oh, I thought the discussion was "who is the better QB in 2016"....

That does make me feel better about my True Frosh guy, though....

[confucius say]

Fitz may be the best running QB in the nation- why would I cry? I love that. It's awesome.

But if my team had to go 70 yards to win the game by just passing by the QB and no running- I'd choose Etling

Straw man. That could never happen. You could always run.

ETA: and every NFL scout disagrees with you.

This argument is stupid. Even if etling is a better passer, it's marginally so, at best. Fitz is 100 times the better runner. No fan in the country would take etling over fitz.

ETA: I do think etling has improved under cannada though. But he can't beat you if his rb is shut down. Fitz can.

[BuckyIsAB****]

Maybe that's the reasoning they have.

The teams themselves aren't that far apart

I think it evens out with us having a better QB, at home, we may have the edge

[dotcomdawg]

Etling is 22-31 (71%) this season passing for 398 yards.

Fitz 28-47 (59.6) this season passing for 363 yards.

People acting like he sucks need to wake up

LSU would trade for Fitz tomorrow, in a split second.

[HSVDawg]

In the last 25 years, we've beat lsu 2 times.

That has nothing to do with the line. Last 3 years have been all decided by 5 points or less. In my opinion, LSU could still easily win, but not necessarily by a TD.

[Gutter Cobreh]

I think it evens out with us having a better QB, at home, we may have the edge

Home field is accounted for in the line, which is typically 3 points. Vegas is essentially saying LSU is 10 points better than us, but since it is at our place it's a TD difference.

Tough call on where to lay the $ on this game, which is what Vegas wants.

[Commercecomet24]

Straw man. That could never happen. You could always run.

ETA: and every NFL scout disagrees with you.

This argument is stupid. Even if etling is a better passer, it's marginally so, at best. Fitz is 100 times the better runner. No fan in the country would take etling over fitz.

ETA: I do think etling has improved under cannada though. But he can't beat you if his rb is shut down. Fitz can.

Right on!

[confucius say]

Home field is accounted for in the line, which is typically 3 points. Vegas is essentially saying LSU is 10 points better than us, but since it is at our place it's a TD difference.

Tough call on where to lay the $ on this game, which is what Vegas wants.

Vegas is not saying that at all!! Vegas is saying 6.5 is the number where they think they can get an equal amount of $ bet on both teams. That's all Vegas wants. They don't give a damn who is better.

[TUSK]

Vegas is not saying that at all!! Vegas is saying 6.5 is the number where they think they can get an equal amount of $ bet on both teams. That's all Vegas wants. They don't give a damn who is better.

This is lost on some... Vegas line is simply their prediction of what will get 50/50 bet distro....

Sagarin has a pretty decent Ratings System... They currently have it at 11....

[Commercecomet24]

This is lost on some... Vegas line is simply their prediction of what will get 50/50 bet distro....

Sagarin has a pretty decent Ratings System... They currently have it at 11....

Exactly! It's for making money nothing more nothing less!

[HSVDawg]

Etling in his career- 420/729 57.6% 5011 yards...28 TD's and 17 INT's

Fitz in his career- 235/422 55.6% 3021 yards...29 TD's and 11 INT's

Literally nothing separates them except Etling's INT's when he played as a true freshman while Fitz sat and watched. Since Etling has been at LSU- he throws less picks than Fitz and completes passes for more yards per pass. Facts are facts no matter how you try to skew them

Etling is an average passer who can't run.

Fitz is an average passer who may be the most elite running QB in the country (outside of Lamar Jackson).

You can split hairs all day about which one is more "slightly above average" as a passer, but neither is ****ing Peyton Manning out there. The difference is that one can still beat you in the blink of an eye if he gets even the slightest seam into the 2nd level. That is a big deal. And the other is nothing more than a game manager. A poor man's Greg McElroy. Does Etling "suck" like Michael Henig sucked or Derrick Taite sucked? Well no, of course not. But at a school like LSU that is loaded with talent at every other position, he is alarmingly mediocre and unquestionably the weakness of the team.

[Gutter Cobreh]

Vegas is not saying that at all!! Vegas is saying 6.5 is the number where they think they can get an equal amount of $ bet on both teams. That's all Vegas wants. They don't give a damn who is better.

What the hell are you talking about? Reading comprehension must not your strong suit.


This is lost on some... Vegas line is simply their prediction of what will get 50/50 bet distro....

Sagarin has a pretty decent Ratings System... They currently have it at 11....

Isn't that interesting. The line + home field adv. = what Sagarian has...it's a damn miracle!!!!

[BuckyIsAB****]

Home field is accounted for in the line, which is typically 3 points. Vegas is essentially saying LSU is 10 points better than us, but since it is at our place it's a TD difference.

Tough call on where to lay the $ on this game, which is what Vegas wants.

LSU aint 10 points better than us

[BuckyIsAB****]

Etling is an average passer who can't run.

Fitz is an average passer who may be the most elite running QB in the country (outside of Lamar Jackson).

You can split hairs all day about which one is more "slightly above average" as a passer, but neither is ****ing Peyton Manning out there. The difference is that one can still beat you in the blink of an eye if he gets even the slightest seam into the 2nd level. That is a big deal. And the other is nothing more than a game manager. A poor man's Greg McElroy. Does Etling "suck" like Michael Henig sucked or Derrick Taite sucked? Well no, of course not. But at a school like LSU that is loaded with talent at every other position, he is alarmingly mediocre and unquestionably the weakness of the team.

Nick Fitzgerald has the abillity to win you a game. Etling doesnt. Fitz can beat you with his arm, he hasnt done it consistently yet but hes flashed it. Etling prays Guice gets 4 yards on first down so he doesnt have to throw it down the field. If we can slow Guice down their play action game wont hurt us as much then Etling is fked. Fitz can score on 1 play. Etling aint ever scoring on 1 play

[msstate7]

Something to keep an eye on...

LSU had 10 penalties for 90 yards against BYU. They had 11 for 74 against Chattanooga.

[Perpetual Underachiever]

They had more then 8 o line man. They lost Dupree, Ferguson, Dural and Chark. They were the four deep at WR's. They had two good running backs not just one.

Then how did Chark have 176 all purpose yds and a kick return TD...yesterday?

[HSVDawg]

Something to keep an eye on...

LSU had 10 penalties for 90 yards against BYU. They had 11 for 74 against Chattanooga.

I seem to remember OM racking up a lot of penalties under Orgeron as well. Maybe I'm misremembering. Either way, I'm too lazy to look it up.

[msstate7]

Then how did Chark have 176 all purpose yds and a kick return TD...yesterday?

Ed O still got some om in him playing an ineligible player like that**

[Jack Lambert]

Home field is accounted for in the line, which is typically 3 points. Vegas is essentially saying LSU is 10 points better than us, but since it is at our place it's a TD difference.

Tough call on where to lay the $ on this game, which is what Vegas wants.

That's not exactly true.

[Jack Lambert]

Then how did Chark have 176 all purpose yds and a kick return TD...yesterday?

He is no longer in the two deep chart.

[HSVDawg]

Vegas is not saying that at all!! Vegas is saying 6.5 is the number where they think they can get an equal amount of $ bet on both teams. That's all Vegas wants. They don't give a damn who is better.

I think everyone realizes that, but the point is most everyone who isn't an LSU fan probably would lean towards State covering -6.5. So it wouldn't be even money. All objective data points to it being closer than a TD game (last 3 years of results, State at home, two good defenses, etc.). That doesn't mean LSU can't possibly cover, but if you took a random person off the street in like California or something, showed them the data, and then showed them the line and said they had to pick one team to cover, they are gonna take State more than likely. So the line will have to move a bit to get to even money.

[Skydawg1]

Is Chark hurt? Also will Key play or sit the season out (injured) like Lenny mainly did last year? None of these players have any loyalty to Yaw Yaw.

[HSVDawg]

He is no longer in the two deep chart.

Where are you seeing that? Got a link?

[Skydawg1]

The official LSU site has no depth chart. Just the roster. Probably wishful thinking. Because Etling with no Chark would mean MONEY for State's chances.

[Gutter Cobreh]

That's not exactly true.

Will you please elaborate?

[Jack Lambert]

Will you please elaborate?

I have my sources.:)

[Jack Lambert]

Where are you seeing that? Got a link?

He is there I just over looked his name. Mistake was made.

[Dawg-gone-dawgs]

I will never understand some of our fan base so eager to have our team suck.

^This

[Johnson85]

Again, compare them at the same stage of their careers.

They're not at the same stage in their careers. Fitz is a RS Jr. with a little more than a year under his belt and Etling is a RS Sr who has gotten meaningful snaps.

Pretty clearly Fitz is the better overall QB. Etling is a better QB if for some reason you need to dink and dunk down the field.

I think both offenses are going to struggle this Saturday and probably going to need some big plays. Reese is probably going to get abused by Key (assuming he plays) and that's probably going to stop us from having sustained drives.

LSU is going to have to jam it down the strength of our D behind a weakened OL and with a QB that can't threaten us deep.

My guess is that while Etling can't beat us, some of their WR's bring down some jump balls and/or get some huge yards after catch for some big scoring plays and that's the difference in the game.

[Jack Lambert]

They're not at the same stage in their careers. Fitz is a RS Jr. with a little more than a year under his belt and Etling is a RS Sr who has gotten meaningful snaps.

Pretty clearly Fitz is the better overall QB. Etling is a better QB if for some reason you need to dink and dunk down the field.

I think both offenses are going to struggle this Saturday and probably going to need some big plays. Reese is probably going to get abused by Key (assuming he plays) and that's probably going to stop us from having sustained drives.

LSU is going to have to jam it down the strength of our D behind a weakened OL and with a QB that can't threaten us deep.

My guess is that while Etling can't beat us, some of their WR's bring down some jump balls and/or get some huge yards after catch for some big scoring plays and that's the difference in the game.

Are out DB's tall? They looked towering over the LA Tech WR's.

[Maroonthirteen]

Wish we were -16.5 underdogs. State always performs better as underdogs.

[Acid mouth]

Vegas is not saying that at all!! Vegas is saying 6.5 is the number where they think they can get an equal amount of $ bet on both teams. That's all Vegas wants. They don't give a damn who is better.
Confucius is spot on! The guys at the Bellagio sports book will tell you that TSUN will usually always have a lower payout than us to win the NC/SEC. Despite knowing that they are fielding a shitshow, everyday some boat shoe, bow tie wearing trustfund baby will lay a $100 down for TSUN to win a championship. Then he will go back to The Rouge to tell all his friends and Vegas is $100 richer.

[Covercorner2]

Confucius is spot on! The guys at the Bellagio sports book will tell you that TSUN will usually always have a lower payout than us to win the NC/SEC. Despite knowing that they are fielding a shitshow, everyday some boat shoe, bow tie wearing trustfund baby will lay a $100 down for TSUN to win a championship. Then he will go back to The Rouge to tell all his friends and Vegas is $100 richer.

Vegas also hasn't been REMOTELY "close" in 3 of our past 4 games. We covered the spreads against Ole Miss, Charleston Southern and LA Tech by 25+ in each game. Hell, they weren't even close in the one game we did lose (MIA OH). Look it up.

[confucius say]

What the hell are you talking about? Reading comprehension must not your strong suit.



Isn't that interesting. The line + home field adv. = what Sagarian has...it's a damn miracle!!!!

Not sure how else to explain it. You said Vegas set our line at 6.5 and when you factor in 3 pts for home field Vegas is "essentially saying" Lsu is 10 pts better. Vegas doesn't set lines by which team is better. They set them at a number at which they believe the public will put 50% of the $ on the favorite and 50% on the underdog. That is vegas's goal always.

That's the reason the line moves accordingly when all the $ is going on one team. It's not bc Vegas is changing their opinion as to which team is better.