8-4 should be the floor now...

[Beaver]

Tough games -- LSU, UGA, AU, and Bama

Games we should win -- BYU, UK, aTm, UMass, Arky, and OM

Our defense can keep us in every game. We have talent at the QB and RB positions. O-line and receivers are good enough.

Beat LSU on Saturday and we have a real shot at 10-2. UGA is good but not great. AU looks no different from last year, and Mullen has to beat Bama at some point right? Hail State!

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Meh.... OL and FG kicking will cost us several games....we could easily lose next 3.

[DownwardDawg]

I'd still be happy at 7-5. We are too inconsistent. Early last night, we looked like garbage. An SEC team would have put us away early or at least had us in a very tough spot. 6-6 looked more likely about halfway through the 1st last night.

[ShotgunDawg]

I'd still be happy at 7-5. We are too inconsistent. Early last night, we looked like garbage. An SEC team would have put us away early or at least had us in a very tough spot. 6-6 looked more likely about halfway through the 1st last night.

Just out of curiosity, who do you consider SEC teams?

[GreenheadDawg]

I'd still be happy at 7-5. We are too inconsistent. Early last night, we looked like garbage. An SEC team would have put us away early or at least had us in a very tough spot. 6-6 looked more likely about halfway through the 1st last night.

I agree with this. No consistency on offense. Thankfully our defense will keep us in the game unlike last year

[DownwardDawg]

Just out of curiosity, who do you consider SEC teams?

Our next three opponents.

[IMissJack]

We have basically flipped from Offense being better than the Defense to the Defense being better than the Offense, based on the 2 games played. However, I don't know how much Mullen has been sandbagging on play calls.

[GreenheadDawg]

We have basically flipped from Offense being better than the Defense to the Defense being better than the Offense, based on the 2 games played. However, I don't know how much Mullen has been sandbagging on play calls.

I think he's been pretty vanilla but I have zero confidence in our oline and very little in Fitz and our receivers. We can have all the talent in the world at RB but if we can't open up holes and we are one dimensional it really doesn't matter. We don't have the oline to be able to line up and run it when the defense knows we are going to run it.

[Quaoarsking]

Meh.... OL and FG kicking will cost us several games....we could easily lose next 3.

Even if we do lose the next 3, we should still be shooting for 8-4. FPI now has us over 60% to beat A&M and over 70% to beat Arkansas and Ole Miss.

[BrunswickDawg]

I think he's been pretty vanilla but I have zero confidence in our oline and very little in Fitz and our receivers. We can have all the talent in the world at RB but if we can't open up holes and we are one dimensional it really doesn't matter. We don't have the oline to be able to line up and run it when the defense knows we are going to run it.

So we lead the conference in rushing Offense after 2 games but can't open holes? Some of y'all need some damn perspective.

[TrapGame]

So we lead the conference in rushing Offense after 2 games but can't open holes? Some of y'all need some damn perspective.

The Hev Hate is strong. Williams and Kylin had terrific runs last night. It really helps when the RB doesn't get tackled by the hash mark.

[GreenheadDawg]

So we lead the conference in rushing Offense after 2 games but can't open holes? Some of y'all need some damn perspective.

LSU will give us plenty of that. A lot of the runs came from Fitz run option. If you think we are gonna line up against LSU and run between the tackles then I don't know what to tell you.

[ShotgunDawg]

I hate games against mid majors because everyone over analyzes everything in order to make predictions.

Thanks heavens we are finally to the portion of the schedule where its "just win baby".

Nothing matters on Saturday night but the final score.

[ShotgunDawg]

LSU will give us plenty of that. A lot of the runs came from Fitz run option. If you think we are gonna line up against LSU and run between the tackles then I don't know what to tell you.

Your probably right but we did exactly that with Dak and J Rob

[GreenheadDawg]

Your probably right but we did exactly that with Dak and J Rob

We did that with a much better and way more physical oline. I think we have a very good chance of beating them but if our oline comes to play and depending on which Fitz shows up

[Commercecomet24]

Hell bama don't even run between the tackles effectively against lsu and vice versa and they both have 4 and 5 star ols. That's something people don't understand it's not just our ol that has bad days run blocking against elite defenses.

[TUSK]

Hell bama don't even run between the tackles effectively against lsu and vice versa and they both have 4 and 5 star ols. That's something people don't understand it's not just our ol that has bad days run blocking against elite defenses.

eeeeeeasy there, Turbo.... we've been working those cats over pretty good for a while, now...

[Commercecomet24]

eeeeeeasy there, Turbo.... we've been working those cats over pretty good for a while, now...

Uh you watch the game last year? What was that offensive explosion 10 whole points! And one td scored while all 5 ol were holding. Y'all didn't move the ball at all against them
Lol

ETA looked at the stats last 3 years.

2016-202 shocked by that cause it looked like neither team moved the ball

2015-Henry went for 250 by himself

2014-106 yards rushing

2 out of last 3 yall have hammered them on the ground so you're right. My apologies, Tusk

[MetEdDawg]

8-4 isn't the floor, but it's no longer unattainable. I thought we were a 7-5 type team, but I thought we had a higher ceiling because the defense was an unknown. Now we know they are way better than we thought they could be.

I think we should say that 7-5 is the worst we should do though. BYU is garbage. UMASS is a win. That gets us to 4. Out of TAMU, Arkansas, OM, and UK, we should expect to win a minimum of 2. That gets us to 6. Then out of LSU, UGA, Auburn, and Alabama, we should win 1. That gets us to 7.

I think we can get to 9 honestly. More than that will be tough, but I think 9 isn't crazy to think about. We could beat 3 out of TAMU, Arkansas, OM, and UK, then find a way to maybe beat LSU and Auburn.

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

Fitz's inconsistent footwork and the kicking game will cost us a game or two, but I think we may pull an upset. We easily forget he's in what, his 4th year playing QB in his whole life and we have a true freshmen kicker.

[HSVDawg]

8-4 isn't the floor, but it's no longer unattainable. I thought we were a 7-5 type team, but I thought we had a higher ceiling because the defense was an unknown. Now we know they are way better than we thought they could be.

I think we should say that 7-5 is the worst we should do though. BYU is garbage. UMASS is a win. That gets us to 4. Out of TAMU, Arkansas, OM, and UK, we should expect to win a minimum of 2. That gets us to 6. Then out of LSU, UGA, Auburn, and Alabama, we should win 1. That gets us to 7.

I think we can get to 9 honestly. More than that will be tough, but I think 9 isn't crazy to think about. We could beat 3 out of TAMU, Arkansas, OM, and UK, then find a way to maybe beat LSU and Auburn.

I think we could easily be 8-4 and it be very similar to our 2012 team that went 8-4 yet didn't really beat anyone. I think that should be the floor. If we lose to either A&M or Arkansas (which I think would have to happen for us to be 7-5 or worse), I'm gonna be pretty disappointed. Before the season started I was banking on us losing at least one of those, but not anymore.

[TUSK]

Uh you watch the game last year? What was that offensive explosion 10 whole points! And one td scored while all 5 ol were holding. Y'all didn't move the ball at all against them
Lol

ETA looked at the stats last 3 years.

2016-202 shocked by that cause it looked like neither team moved the ball

2015-Henry went for 250 by himself

2014-106 yards rushing

2 out of last 3 yall have hammered them on the ground so you're right. My apologies, Tusk

I went back to when MMDL made LSU quit... (6 games)

Bammer 237 - 1081 - 4.56 avg - 7 TDs
L7U 216 - 491 - 2.27 avg - 3 TDs

It's all good.... Sometimes losses to Bammer look close, when they really aren't.... It's the "Boa Constrictor Effect".

[MetEdDawg]

I think we could easily be 8-4 and it be very similar to our 2012 team that went 8-4 yet didn't really beat anyone. I think that should be the floor. If we lose to either A&M or Arkansas (which I think would have to happen for us to be 7-5 or worse), I'm gonna be pretty disappointed. Before the season started I was banking on us losing at least one of those, but not anymore.

Well it's a long season until we play Arkansas. Got 8 more games to play until we see them and they could look totally different. If we had them at home I would agree. TAMU is the weird one. They could have a different coach by the time we play them. If they are 2-5 by the time we see them coming off 5 straight losses, it's possible Sumlin is gone. So we don't know how that could look.

If both games were today, I would expect us to be favored in both by a very small amount. But I also think we are better than both of those teams.

[Commercecomet24]

I went back to when MMDL made LSU quit... (6 games)

Bammer 237 - 1081 - 4.56 avg - 7 TDs
L7U 216 - 491 - 2.27 avg - 3 TDs

It's all good.... Sometimes losses to Bammer look close, when they really aren't.... It's the "Boa Constrictor Effect".

You're right. There's just so few teams that can move the ball on the ground against elite defenses. Bama just wears people down. I don't know for sure but I would bet 50% of those rushing yards came in the 4th quarter.

Last years game was truly an ugly offensive game by both teams but bama did enough to win it.

[TUSK]

You're right. There's just so few teams that can move the ball on the ground against elite defenses. Bama just wears people down. I don't know for sure but I would bet 50% of those rushing yards came in the 4th quarter.

Last years game was truly an ugly offensive game by both teams but bama did enough to win it.

This guy thinks you're "suspect", '24....

https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7285151/hurts.0.jpg

[HSVDawg]

Well it's a long season until we play Arkansas. Got 8 more games to play until we see them and they could look totally different. If we had them at home I would agree. TAMU is the weird one. They could have a different coach by the time we play them. If they are 2-5 by the time we see them coming off 5 straight losses, it's possible Sumlin is gone. So we don't know how that could look.

If both games were today, I would expect us to be favored in both by a very small amount. But I also think we are better than both of those teams.

Agree 100%

[Jack Lambert]

So we lead the conference in rushing Offense after 2 games but can't open holes? Some of y'all need some damn perspective.

What a lot of guys on this board don't understand the days of limning up and blowing the defender back is gone. It's zone blocking not driving the defender back. It is up to the runner to pick where to run. It is up to fitz to read the blocking. If the hole is there he hands off, if not he goes to the second option. He can keep it and run or like last night throw it to the tight end. The lineman are never down field so a run could end up being a pass. Best example was last year during the BYU game it looked like a run but Fitz dumped it to Mixon and he ran it in for a TD.

[Commercecomet24]

This guy thinks you're "suspect", '24....

https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7285151/hurts.0.jpg

Good one! That made me laugh!

[Liverpooldawg]

I ain't reading much into anything we have seen so far. Next week you can.

[BrunswickDawg]

What a lot of guys on this board don't understand the days of limning up and blowing the defender back is gone. It's zone blocking not driving the defender back. It is up to the runner to pick where to run. It is up to fitz to read the blocking. If the hole is there he hands off, if not he goes to the second option. He can keep it and run or like last night throw it to the tight end. The lineman are never down field so a run could end up being a pass. Best example was last year during the BYU game it looked like a run but Fitz dumped it to Mixon and he ran it in for a TD.
Exactly - which is why it is so critical that we have a running focused QB and we get in trouble when we focus pass first.

[bostondawg]

Back to the OP: 7-5 is the floor, not 8-4. The floor is that we lose to LSU, Bama, Auburn, UGA. Beat UK and TSUN and all OOC opponents. Split TAMU and Arky 1-1. That puts us at 7-5 (3-5). That's the floor for this team, in my opinion.

I think 8-4 is the new expectation for this team. And we can see the path to 9 wins: beating one of LSU, Auburn and Georgia, and then beating both TAMU and Arky.

And we can expect next year's team to likely be 1-2 wins better than this team. Bright future.

ETA: ESPN's FPI has us favored over both Arky and TAMU now, going 8-4: http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi/_/id/344/mississippi-state-bulldogs
So for that reason, 8-4 is the expectation, not the floor.

[biscuit]

The roof is the floor?

[Ezsoil]

We did that with a much better and way more physical oline. I think we have a very good chance of beating them but if our oline comes to play and depending on which Fitz shows up


I'm gonna call BS on that one...coming into the 2014 season everyone was saying the O Line was going to be horrible and no way Gabe Jackson could be replaced ... and after the lack luster UAB game, not many thought MSU had a chance on the road at LSU...Fitz did just fine after the 1-7 start... but this defense is special.... they are making tackles, they are staying home and playing perfect assignment football... and they have swagger. Grantham has the hammer down for four quarters The 2014 team didn't have that. During the three game stretch to #1, all three teams made a comeback but failed ...that won't be the case this year... the offense may not be as balanced and Fitz may not be as polished as Dak but the defense is the best since the 98 defense... I may be a sunshine pumper but I think this team will be undefeated heading into the Alabama game.

[bostondawg]

I may be a sunshine pumper but


I think this team will be undefeated heading into the Alabama game.


sunshine pumper

Respectfully, how do you think the position groups compare to the 2014 defense?

My take:
DL: 2014 team. Chris Jones + Preston Smith. Simmons is good, but he needs a second star alongside him. We'll see if someone can emerge.
LB: push. Bernadrick McKiney and Beniquez Brown probably are about as good as Leo and Gerri Green.
CB: 2014. Will Redmond was great. If we have a lockdown corner on this 2017 team, they haven't yet emerged. Fingers crossed for Peters and Dantzler. This corners group could end up finishing the season better, though.
Safeties: 2017. Probably the weakest group on the 2014 squad. Brandon Bryant and Mark McLaurin are good, adding in JT Gray and Abram, we're solid there.

Long story short: I think it's a bit premature to call this defense better than the 2014 team, or even teams before 2014. We've had some solid defenses. And we've looked really good on D against an FCS school and a G5 school. Still plenty more to prove before we start comparing them to the late 90s defenses.

Editing to also note on offense:
The 2014 team was decidedly better than this team at QB, RB, WR, and OL. Tight ends might be a push. Hard to tell this early. Just trying to get you to temper your expectations. 8-4 would be a good finish for this team, and set us up well for next year.

[GreenheadDawg]

I'm gonna call BS on that one...coming into the 2014 season everyone was saying the O Line was going to be horrible and no way Gabe Jackson could be replaced ... and after the lack luster UAB game, not many thought MSU had a chance on the road at LSU...Fitz did just fine after the 1-7 start... but this defense is special.... they are making tackles, they are staying home and playing perfect assignment football... and they have swagger. Grantham has the hammer down for four quarters The 2014 team didn't have that. During the three game stretch to #1, all three teams made a comeback but failed ...that won't be the case this year... the offense may not be as balanced and Fitz may not be as polished as Dak but the defense is the best since the 98 defense... I may be a sunshine pumper but I think this team will be undefeated heading into the Alabama game.

Let me know when you get back from outer space

[TimberBeast]

Exactly - which is why it is so critical that we have a running focused QB and we get in trouble when we focus pass first.

And that is on Mullen, not Fitz.