College Football Playoff Picture - Pac 12 & Big 12

[TUSK]

As you run down the MSU schedule, and the obstacles in any SECW team's path, take note of THIS:

#5 Oklahoma - UTEP, @ Ohio State, Tulane, @ Baylor, Iowa St, Texas, @ KSU, TTU, @ OK St, TCU, @ Kansas, WVU, BIG12CG (likely OK St or WVU)

#6 USC - W Mich, Stanford, Texas, @Cal, @WSU, OR St, Utah, @ND, @ASU, Arizona, @Colorado, UCLA, PACCG (Washington)

#7 Washington - @Rutgers, Montana, Fresno. @Colorado, @OR St, Cal, @ASU, UCLA, Oregon, @Stanford, Utah, WSU, PACCG (USC)

[Commercecomet24]

Dang and people whine about the sec teams playing some cupcakes.

[TUSK]

I'm gonna call it now... the Okie @ OSU game this weekend is for a playoff berth.

Loser's conference gets left out.

[Commercecomet24]

I'm gonna call it now... the Okie @ OSU game this weekend is for a playoff berth.

Loser's conference gets left out.

Dead on accurate there.

[Commercecomet24]

Man looking at Washington schedule they play 2 maybe 3 decently difficult games and only one on the road at Stanford

[Apoplectic]

A big ten team wil alway makes cfp as will an sec team

[Commercecomet24]

It's gonna be interesting this year. I think you can just go ahead and pencil in bama and clemson. Then Washington or USC will go undefeated and get in, that leaves one spot for big 10 or big 12. If Oklahoma beats osu and runs the table(which is very doable in big12) that leaves big 10 out unless Michigan goes undefeated, which I don't see happening. Just my opinion of course and it's WAY early but fun to play around with.

[TUSK]

A big ten team wil alway makes cfp as will an sec team

actually, the B1G is the most vulnerable to get left out this year....

[dawgs]

I'm gonna call it now... the Okie @ OSU game this weekend is for a playoff berth.

Loser's conference gets left out.

Oklahoma st might still have a chance if Oklahoma loses to tosu, but they'd need to run the table. One of the Oklahoma programs running the table is likely the only way the big 12 gets someone in this year. Big 10 is almost definitely getting someone in between tosu, psu, Michigan, and Wisconsin - whoever wins the conference is likely in, even if it's tosu and tosu loses to Oklahoma Saturday.

[Apoplectic]

actually, the B1G is the most vulnerable to get left out this year....

The committee won't let it happen.

[KOdawg1]

The committee won't let it happen.
Yep. ESPN would lose their minds

[Apoplectic]

Yep. ESPN would lose their minds

But we're a key conf too so the same goes for the sec. there are just too many sec fans paying full cable prices

[Reason2succeed]

For TV purposes they will always try to cover the map with the CFP. West coast needs to be represented in some way or they lose Cali. It's easier to leave out the Big 12 because they had no championship game and because their media markets are in middle America. Not only that but they play no defense.

I think the ACC or Big 12 will most likely be left out this year.

[Dawg61]

Here's my ridiculously early playoff teams

Bama
Oklahoma State
Michigan
Clemson

[Jack Lambert]

I'm gonna call it now... the Okie @ OSU game this weekend is for a playoff berth.

Loser's conference gets left out.

Last season OSU lost to Penn state, did not win division, did not play in conference championship but got into the play off. Losing will not mean shit to the Committee when it comes to OSU. OK might be in trouble if they lose.

[TUSK]

Last season OSU lost to Penn state, did not win division, did not play in conference championship but got into the play off. Losing will not mean shit to the Committee when it comes to OSU. OK might be in trouble if they lose.

I agree with this.... USC/Washington and OK/OK St have ZERO margin of error, IMO....

My hypothetical question is this: If Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and USC all go undefeated, and Ohio St wins the B1G (with 1 loss, at home, to Okie)... who gets left out?

A) #1 Alabama 13-0 (with wins over FSU & SECCG)
B) #2 Clemson 13-0 (defending Champeen with wins over FSU & ACCG)
C) #3 Oklahoma 13-0 (with wins @ Ohio St & Big 12 championship game this year)
D) #4 USC 13-0 (with wins over Stanford & Washington)
E) #5 Ohio St. 12-1 (with home loss to #3 Oklahoma & wins over PSU & @ Michigan)

[Commercecomet24]

I agree with this.... USC/Washington and OK/OK St have ZERO margin of error, IMO....

My hypothetical question is this: If Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and USC all go undefeated, and Ohio St wins the B1G (with 1 loss, at home, to Okie)... who gets left out?

A) #1 Alabama 13-0 (with wins over FSU & SECCG)
B) #2 Clemson 13-0 (defending Champeen with wins over FSU & ACCG)
C) #3 Oklahoma 13-0 (with wins @ Ohio St & Big 12 championship game this year)
D) #4 USC 13-0 (with wins over Stanford & Washington)
E) #5 Ohio St. 12-1 (with home loss to #3 Oklahoma & wins over PSU & @ Michigan)

Yep!

RE: my post above osu will be on outside looking in.

[Commercecomet24]

Yep!

RE: my post above osu will be on outside looking in.

ETA: like you said big12/pac12 have zero margin for error. If either conference has s team with one less big 10 champ with one loss will trump then

[Dawg61]

USC has no chance to go undefeated. I don't even think they'll finish as a top 4 Pac12 team.

[Commercecomet24]

USC has no chance to go undefeated. I don't even think they'll finish as a top 4 Pac12 team.

I don't think they do either but Washington does.

[smootness]

I agree with this.... USC/Washington and OK/OK St have ZERO margin of error, IMO....

My hypothetical question is this: If Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and USC all go undefeated, and Ohio St wins the B1G (with 1 loss, at home, to Okie)... who gets left out?

A) #1 Alabama 13-0 (with wins over FSU & SECCG)
B) #2 Clemson 13-0 (defending Champeen with wins over FSU & ACCG)
C) #3 Oklahoma 13-0 (with wins @ Ohio St & Big 12 championship game this year)
D) #4 USC 13-0 (with wins over Stanford & Washington)
E) #5 Ohio St. 12-1 (with home loss to #3 Oklahoma & wins over PSU & @ Michigan)

Ohio State would easily be left out. But the chances of 4 unbeatens are about 0.2%.

[TUSK]

USC has no chance to go undefeated. I don't even think they'll finish as a top 4 Pac12 team.

I dunno what their odds are of going undefeated, but I do know this... As of now, is/will be favored/heavily favored in every regular season game... and my case is more PAC related, not USC, Washington, et al....

My point is this: the PAC has, by far, the easiest path to the CFP.... followed by the Big 12.... then the ACC....

But, as the case is every year, somebody's gonna get clipped... and I'd put USC in that group of potentials...

Who you like in the Pac, buddy? Stanford?

[TUSK]

Ohio State would easily be left out. But the chances of 4 unbeatens are about 0.2%.

wow, I had the probability at 0.2175%*

#greatminds

[Dawg61]

I don't think they do either but Washington does.

Agreed but I also think Stanford is right there with UW and UCLA, Colorado, WSU, Utah, Oregon are going to make it very difficult to go undefeated in the Pac12. I don't see anyone going 13-0 in the Pac12 to make the playoff. If Bama's defense wasn't so nasty I would say they won't make it either. Hurts might end up hurtsing them outta the playoffs this year. He has regressed as teams are figuring out how to attack him on the edges.

[smootness]

I honestly don't see those schedules as that bad. Just about any schedule will look weak up against the SEC, especially if it isn't in the B10.

We also have no idea what will happen the rest of the year. Perhaps ND ends up being a top 10-15 team. Maybe Oklahoma State and Kansas State prove to be two of the best teams in the country.

I don't know, they just look like pretty normal schedules to me, though Washington's is definitely weaker than USC's.

[Dawg61]

Who you like in the Pac, buddy? Stanford?

Pac12 is really interesting this year. I see one shitty team (Oregon St.) and then 11 bowl capable teams. I do think Stanford or Washington will win it this year but I see a whole bunch of upsets happening all year in that league.

[TUSK]

Agreed but I also think Stanford is right there with UW and UCLA, Colorado, WSU, Utah, Oregon are going to make it very difficult to go undefeated in the Pac12. I don't see anyone going 13-0 in the Pac12 to make the playoff. If Bama's defense wasn't so nasty I would say they won't make it either. Hurts might end up hurtsing them outta the playoffs this year. He has regressed as teams are figuring out how to attack him on the edges.

I think Hurts performance has a lot to do with having played that FSU D.... It's the best D he'll see (outside of practice), all year... also, the right side of the OL is, again, an issue...

But, like you said, the defense can mask a less than stellar QB... He's got 9 weeks to get his shit together...

[Commercecomet24]

Agreed but I also think Stanford is right there with UW and UCLA, Colorado, WSU, Utah, Oregon are going to make it very difficult to go undefeated in the Pac12. I don't see anyone going 13-0 in the Pac12 to make the playoff. If Bama's defense wasn't so nasty I would say they won't make it either. Hurts might end up hurtsing them outta the playoffs this year. He has regressed as teams are figuring out how to attack him on the edg es.

No doubt it's WAY early but fun to look at and speculate. I've watched uw play a lot and they have elite speed on offense and defense. They're schedule lines up well with their "big" games at home. I see USC and Stanford as the only ones with a chance against them. This has been a thoroughly interesting discussion.

[Commercecomet24]

I think Hurts performance has a lot to do with having played that FSU D.... It's the best D he'll see (outside of practice), all year... also, the right side of the OL is, again, an issue...

But, like you said, the defense can mask a less than stellar QB... He's got 9 weeks to get his shit together...

With what I saw of the bama d Saturday night if hurts don't turn the bsll over and create about 14-17 points a game that's all that's needed

[FISHDAWG]

The committee won't let it happen.

especially with Herbstreit as their campaign manager

[Commercecomet24]

especially with Herbstreit as their campaign manager

Naw he's completely unbiased ******

[AusTexDawg]

But we're a key conf too so the same goes for the sec. there are just too many sec fans paying full cable prices

I hate to say it, but there are a few scenarios where I see where the SEC champ would be likely to get left out of the playoff. This is one:

a) the SEC champ is one of these teams: State, South Carolina, Mizzou, Kentucky, TSUN, Vandy or even Arkansas
b) the SEC champ has one loss
c) the Big XII champ is undefeated
d) the other conferences have only undefeated or one-loss champions


The rationale would be that the SEC was "down" because of the perception that, if the champion is not one of the traditional power teams in the conference, the conference must be down. If the chips fall just right, the same thing could happen to the B1G champ.

[smootness]

I hate to say it, but there are a few scenarios where I see where the SEC champ would be likely to get left out of the playoff. This is one:

a) the SEC champ is one of these teams: State, South Carolina, Mizzou, Kentucky, TSUN, Vandy or even Arkansas
b) the SEC champ has one loss
c) the Big XII champ is undefeated
d) the other conferences have only undefeated or one-loss champions


The rationale would be that the SEC was "down" because of the perception that, if the champion is not one of the traditional power teams in the conference, the conference must be down. If the chips fall just right, the same thing could happen to the B1G champ.

You think they would leave out an undefeated SEC champ if it was a team like that? Not a chance. There's very little chance a 1-loss SEC champ would be left out, either.

[Commercecomet24]

You think they would leave out an undefeated SEC champ if it was a team like that? Not a chance. There's very little chance a 1-loss SEC champ would be left out, either.

Agree. The only way I see sec champ getting left out is with 2 losses.

[HSVDawg]

I'm gonna call it now... the Okie @ OSU game this weekend is for a playoff berth.

Loser's conference gets left out.

I think both the B1G and Big 12 get left out regardless. Bama, Clemson, Best #2 from SEC / ACC, and PAC 12 champ (UDub or USC) are my way too early playoff picks.

I think Ohio State wins this weekend, but gets tripped up by at least 2 other teams (maybe Michigan and PSU). B1G is gonna beat itself up. Oklahoma will lose at least one more also.

[Dawg61]

I think a 68 team national championship tournament would be the greatest thing ever. Make the last spots like they do in basketball as play in games but fill them with the top 8 FCS schools. Get ride of all the non-conference crap games to accommodate the extra games. Do that and the final two teams don't play anymore games than the final two teams play right now. Oh and there was 41 bowl games last year so 82 teams made it. This tournament would actually reduce how many teams make postseason by 22 schools (8 go to FCS schools).

[HSVDawg]

I think a 68 team national championship tournament would be the greatest thing ever. Make the last spots like they do in basketball as play in games but fill them with the top 8 FCS schools. Get ride of all the non-conference crap games to accommodate the extra games. Do that and the final two teams don't play anymore games than the final two teams play right now. Oh and there was 41 bowl games last year so 82 teams made it. This tournament would actually reduce how many teams make postseason by 22 schools (8 go to FCS schools).

Intriguing. I've always been of the mind that more football is always better. However, I think 68 is way too many teams. You have to remember there are 320+ Division I basketball teams. So, while 68 seems like a large number, it's still only the top 20% of teams. There is also way less parity from the power conferences to group of 5 type teams than there is in college basketball. For those reasons, I could see up to maybe 16 teams, but never more than that. In that scenario, you could just ditch the conference championship games and play every week starting 2 weeks from the end of the regular season. Higher seed hosts first 2 rounds, then when it reaches a Final Four you use the same currently rotated playoff neutral sites to settle it.

Season ends last week of November. First week of December is a rest week for the contending teams. 2nd Saturday of December is the 1st round of playoff games. 3rd Saturday is the 2nd round of games. Skip the next week for the holidays (this also leaves an uninterrupted 2 week window for the other major bowl games to be played). The 2 week windows before the start of the playoffs and before the semifinals also gives fans a decent window to arrange travel. Play the semifinals the first weekend of January, followed by the championship the following weekend. You add two games, but take away the conference championship (of which 75% of the teams would likely be participating in), so you only add a net of 1 game. And the season would end around the sane time as it does now.

[smootness]

I think a 68 team national championship tournament would be the greatest thing ever. Make the last spots like they do in basketball as play in games but fill them with the top 8 FCS schools. Get ride of all the non-conference crap games to accommodate the extra games. Do that and the final two teams don't play anymore games than the final two teams play right now. Oh and there was 41 bowl games last year so 82 teams made it. This tournament would actually reduce how many teams make postseason by 22 schools (8 go to FCS schools).

Haha what the?

Why even have a regular season at that point? Just play a tournament and be done.

[dawgs]

I dunno what their odds are of going undefeated, but I do know this... As of now, is/will be favored/heavily favored in every regular season game... and my case is more PAC related, not USC, Washington, et al....

My point is this: the PAC has, by far, the easiest path to the CFP.... followed by the Big 12.... then the ACC....

But, as the case is every year, somebody's gonna get clipped... and I'd put USC in that group of potentials...

Who you like in the Pac, buddy? Stanford?

How is the PAC 12 and easier path than the big 12? PAC 12 is way way way better than the big 12.

[Dawg61]

Haha what the?

Why even have a regular season at that point? Just play a tournament and be done.

Cause even if you doubled my tournament and included every team in NCAA plus however many FCS to make it a perfect 128 team tournament it's still only a 7 game season for the final two teams and it's only a one game season for first round losers, two game season for second round losers etc...

Conference games and conference championships mean something. Bullshit OOC games mean nothing.

Would you rather play 4 scrub OOC games every year or would you rather have a shot at winning a National Championship every year? (I realize we technically have a shot right now every year already)

[smootness]

Cause even if you doubled my tournament and included every team in NCAA plus however many FCS to make it a perfect 128 team tournament it's still only a 7 game season for the final two teams and it's only a one game season for first round losers, two game season for second round losers etc...

Conference games and conference championships mean something. Bullshit OOC games mean nothing.

Would you rather play 4 scrub OOC games every year or would you rather have a shot at winning a National Championship every year? (I realize we technically have a shot right now every year already)

I like the current system FAR more than I would like a 68-team tournament. That would be completely insane.

And our chances of winning a national championship would not go up at all in that kind of tournament.

[BrunswickDawg]

Cause even if you doubled my tournament and included every team in NCAA plus however many FCS to make it a perfect 128 team tournament it's still only a 7 game season for the final two teams and it's only a one game season for first round losers, two game season for second round losers etc...

Conference games and conference championships mean something. Bullshit OOC games mean nothing.

Would you rather play 4 scrub OOC games every year or would you rather have a shot at winning a National Championship every year? (I realize we technically have a shot right now every year already)

I think you'd be better off making it a conference champions tournament. Finish realignment and create 8 total D1 conferences. You win the conference, you are in. Seed the conference champs based on a BCS type formula. Run the playoffs thru December - first 2 rounds on campus. Everyone else goes Bowling.

[Dawg61]

I like the current system FAR more than I would like a 68-team tournament.So you like watching the same 10 teams play for a Natty every year and it's never once been MSU? That would be completely insane.Insane is my comfort zone

And our chances of winning a national championship would not go up at all in that kind of tournament.strongly disagree, we can absolutely win 6 games in a row when only 1 game are we facing a top 5 team most likely, we can not win 15 games in a row or get really lucky and go 14-1 to win a Natty as our history has told us

People fear change but in this case we already see how amazing the basketball tournament is as it is routinely called the best tournament in all of sports. College football should just copy it. The story of David vs Goliath would never be more alive than in this tournament. I live for the underdogs.

[smootness]

Making a run in a tournament like that would be much, much harder in football than in basketball. You're not hitting a good streak and making a run to the Elite 8 in football. You have to be really, really freaking good to win that many games in a row against good teams.

The same teams would largely still be winning national titles, I don't know why you think that would change.

And it's just different in basketball. First, there are 340+ D1 teams in basketball, half the country is not making it. Second, 6 games is about 20% of the # of games you play in the regular season in basketball. In football, it would basically have to be half your season. And then what's the point of anything? Put all the P5 teams in the tournament every year, no need for a regular season.

You think anybody's getting excited about Ohio State-Vandy? 'Oh, maybe Vandy can pull the upset!' Man, that would just be super fun.

[Dawg61]

Making a run in a tournament like that would be much, much harder in football than in basketball. You're not hitting a good streak and making a run to the Elite 8 in football. You have to be really, really freaking good to win that many games in a row against good teams.

The same teams would largely still be winning national titles, I don't know why you think that would change.

And it's just different in basketball. First, there are 340+ D1 teams in basketball, half the country is not making it. Second, 6 games is about 20% of the # of games you play in the regular season in basketball. In football, it would basically have to be half your season. And then what's the point of anything? Put all the P5 teams in the tournament every year, no need for a regular season.

You think anybody's getting excited about Ohio State-Vandy? 'Oh, maybe Vandy can pull the upset!' Man, that would just be super fun.

You're talking first round games when it's OSU vs Vandy and bet you'd get some Vandy fans that think they can beat OSU after watching that first half shit show the Buckeyes put up vs IU plus Ohio State vs Vandy in the round of 64 is a hell of a lot more interesting than watching bullshit OOC games like Ohio State vs Central Arkansas or Virginia Military. Doesn't matter my tourney is never happening and your boring ass 4 team playoff with no Davids ever and the same ten teams recycled in and out will keep on being how it is so there's no need to argue this back and forth.

[TUSK]

Circa '96-97, I sent a playoff proposal in to the radio show "Conference Call", hosted by Max Howell & Ken "Fraud" Kencaid... as best I can remember, it was the first media program dedicated to SEC Sports... They had me come on the show a couple of times to explain and justify the plan... It went over pretty well...

While the original DOC has long since been lost, I will loosely break it down... Please remember, this was a loooong time ago, so some of the thoughts may be antiquated....


8 - 12 team conferences with 2 - 6 team divisions.
10 game regular season schedule - 5 intra-divsional opponents, 4 inter-divsional opponent, 1 OOC opponent.
Division winners play for a conference championship and automatic bid in a 16 team playoff.
The top eight non-conference champs (based on a BCS/CFP type ranking system) receive At Large bids to the playoffs.
The next best 16 teams would be matched up in bowls which would be played during playoff "off" weeks.



The 16 playoff teams would be seeded per aforementioned ranking system with site preference given to the higher ranked team. The lower ranked teams may have their seed ranking lowered in order to prevent "same conference" matchups and to avoid potential "rematches". Each playoff game would be associated with a current bowl game.

The season would run no longer than it does currently, and the quality of the non-playoff bowl games would increase astronomically....

The 2016 CFP Playoff would have looked like this:

1 Alabama - SECC
16 Conference Champ #8

8 Wisconsin - B1G At Large
9 USC - PAC - At Large

4 Washington - PACC
13 Louisville - ACC At Large

5 PSU - B1GC
12 Oklahoma St - Big 12 At Large

2 Clemson - ACCC
15 Conference Champ #7

7 Oklahoma - Big 12 At Large
10 Colorado - B1G At Large

3 Ohio St - B1G At Large
14 W Michigan - MACC

6 Michigan - B1G At Large
11 FSU - ACC At Large

[AusTexDawg]

You think they would leave out an undefeated SEC champ if it was a team like that? Not a chance. There's very little chance a 1-loss SEC champ would be left out, either.

Definitely wouldn't leave out an undefeated champ, but a 1-loss champ that's not a name school - I do think it's possible. Probably not likely since the other conferences championships would have to fall a certain way, but possible.

[TUSK]

Now that I've thought about it.... I think I'd actually reduced the number of schools to 96....

8 - 12 team conferences with 2 - 6 team divisions
10 game regular season schedule - 5 intra-divsional opponents, 4 inter-divsional opponent, 1 OOC opponent.

I'm gonna go back and correct it.....

[smootness]

Definitely wouldn't leave out an undefeated champ, but a 1-loss champ that's not a name school - I do think it's possible. Probably not likely since the other conferences championships would have to fall a certain way, but possible.

That's exactly what I said haha.

[BrunswickDawg]

Definitely wouldn't leave out an undefeated champ, but a 1-loss champ that's not a name school - I do think it's possible. Probably not likely since the other conferences championships would have to fall a certain way, but possible.


That's exactly what I said haha.

Well, if it were ever to happen, it would happen to MSU....

[dawgs]

You're talking first round games when it's OSU vs Vandy and bet you'd get some Vandy fans that think they can beat OSU after watching that first half shit show the Buckeyes put up vs IU plus Ohio State vs Vandy in the round of 64 is a hell of a lot more interesting than watching bullshit OOC games like Ohio State vs Central Arkansas or Virginia Military. Doesn't matter my tourney is never happening and your boring ass 4 team playoff with no Davids ever and the same ten teams recycled in and out will keep on being how it is so there's no need to argue this back and forth.

But we are getting Ohio st vs oklahoma this weekend in a game that will play a huge role in the playoff pecking order (imo likely eliminating Oklahoma if they lose unless all hell breaks loose).

I used to be a proponent of a 16 team CFB playoff, but I think I actually like 8 the best with the top 4 hosting the opening round games. A 6 team with top 2 getting a bye isn't a bad option, and I'm not necessarily clamoring for a change to the current 4 team playoff either (it's been a pretty clean selection process thus far too without much controversy).

[Dawg61]

But we are getting Ohio st vs oklahoma this weekend in a game that will play a huge role in the playoff pecking order (imo likely eliminating Oklahoma if they lose unless all hell breaks loose).

True of the over 400 OOC games every year there's about 10 that are pretty good every year. But of the 32 opening round games in my playoff all 32 are good. JS