Hurricane Irma

[TheRef]

Alright, it's finally time to bring this up to the board. Hurricane Irma is officially a Category 5 hurricane and still looks to impact the US Mainland. South Florida needs to be preparing their Hurricane kits and starting to work on prepping their homes for an evacuation. She's currently moving at 14 MPH due West with sustained winds of 175 MPH. She is a very strong Category 5 storm. Here's the latest NHC cone (another will be coming out at 11 AM CDT).

https://image.prntscr.com/image/hpmmToDASBuFxybLoyLqmQ.png

Now one thing you notice is that the Southern half of the storm will impact a lot of the Caribbean as it moseys through. However, the lowest I think Irma drops in intensity from this is to a Cat 4. The models agree with me on this, with a few even maintaining that she stays a Cat 5.

https://image.prntscr.com/image/5MAaEYerTy2DN4Il2e8nag.png

Now these models don't necessarily mean that it WILL be this strong, however the amount of consistency between the models means that it's very likely at this time.

The question a lot of people have at this time is "will Irma enter the Gulf". The answer is a little complicated at this time. If you look at what we call the "Spaghetti models" then you'll see what we have been seeing for the past 24-48 hours on Irma. The models seem to agree that Irma will get to about equal with Key West, FL then make an abrupt turn up the Eastern seaboard following the Gulf Stream. If this happens, there will be pretty significant impact not only in Florida, but in GA, SC, NC, and VA.

https://image.prntscr.com/image/-bAmcv5LTm6bstwezCutwg.png

Will Irma impact college football during that time? More than likely. There will be some wet games, and some moved games. Irma is not something to mess around with. If she ends up making it into the Gulf, it will be devastating. Just a reminder, this will be the first Major hurricane to strike Florida since 2008. Almost 10 years of no major hurricane landfall for Florida, that streak may end this weekend.

[BrunswickDawg]

Because I am spaghetti model impaired - would Irma maintain intensity as it travels north along Florida or will it lose strength? Or, is it too early to tell. I assume it depends on if the eye makes landfall or if it stays over water.

[TheRef]

Because I am spaghetti model impaired - would Irma maintain intensity as it travels north along Florida or will it lose strength? Or, is it too early to tell. I assume it depends on if the eye makes landfall or if it stays over water.

She would decrease some just due to the shear from hitting the rough ground as opposed to the "smooth" water. This means that as Irma skirts the coast, she will decrease in strength. The more of Irma that is on land, the faster (theoretically) she will weaken.

[Mimi's Babies]

Alright, it's finally time to bring this up to the board. Hurricane Irma is officially a Category 5 hurricane and still looks to impact the US Mainland. South Florida needs to be preparing their Hurricane kits and starting to work on prepping their homes for an evacuation. She's currently moving at 14 MPH due West with sustained winds of 175 MPH. She is a very strong Category 5 storm. Here's the latest NHC cone (another will be coming out at 11 AM CDT).

<snip>

Now one thing you notice is that the Southern half of the storm will impact a lot of the Caribbean as it moseys through. However, the lowest I think Irma drops in intensity from this is to a Cat 4. The models agree with me on this, with a few even maintaining that she stays a Cat 5.

<snip>

Now these models don't necessarily mean that it WILL be this strong, however the amount of consistency between the models means that it's very likely at this time.

The question a lot of people have at this time is "will Irma enter the Gulf". The answer is a little complicated at this time. If you look at what we call the "Spaghetti models" then you'll see what we have been seeing for the past 24-48 hours on Irma. The models seem to agree that Irma will get to about equal with Key West, FL then make an abrupt turn up the Eastern seaboard following the Gulf Stream. If this happens, there will be pretty significant impact not only in Florida, but in GA, SC, NC, and VA.

<snip>

Will Irma impact college football during that time? More than likely. There will be some wet games, and some moved games. Irma is not something to mess around with. If she ends up making it into the Gulf, it will be devastating. Just a reminder, this will be the first Major hurricane to strike Florida since 2008. Almost 10 years of no major hurricane landfall for Florida, that streak may end this weekend.

Thanks for the info.....

[FISHDAWG]

thanks and keep the watch going ... I live on the beach in Biloxi and have more than just a passing interest in this beast

[DownwardDawg]

Great........

[msudawglb]

Yeah, I'm supposed to go Saturday to Kennedy Space Center which is on Florida's east coast. Supposed to stay there all next week. I've been watching Irma closely. My travel office is making a decision Thursday afternoon on whether they cancel the trip or not.

[Beaver]

The question a lot of people have at this time is "will Irma enter the Gulf". The answer is a little complicated at this time. If you look at what we call the "Spaghetti models" then you'll see what we have been seeing for the past 24-48 hours on Irma. The models seem to agree that Irma will get to about equal with Key West, FL then make an abrupt turn up the Eastern seaboard following the Gulf Stream. If she ends up making it into the Gulf, it will be devastating. Just a reminder, this will be the first Major hurricane to strike Florida since 2008. Almost 10 years of no major hurricane landfall for Florida, that streak may end this weekend.

All depends on the speed and strength of a shortwave trough that will move through the southern US. Obviously I'm worried about Florida, but I also feel bad for some of the Virgin Islands, Turks and Caicos, northern Puerto Rico and south/eastern Bahamas as they may experience cat 5 winds...

[WinningIsRelentless]

FEMA has already activated numerous USAR Task Force Teams across the country and they will start arriving in Puerito RICO and south FL as early as today.

[Indndawg]

Alright, it's finally time to bring this up to the board. Hurricane Irma is officially a Category 5 hurricane and still looks to impact the US Mainland. South Florida needs to be preparing their Hurricane kits and starting to work on prepping their homes for an evacuation. She's currently moving at 14 MPH due West with sustained winds of 175 MPH. She is a very strong Category 5 storm. Here's the latest NHC cone (another will be coming out at 11 AM CDT).

<snip>

Now one thing you notice is that the Southern half of the storm will impact a lot of the Caribbean as it moseys through. However, the lowest I think Irma drops in intensity from this is to a Cat 4. The models agree with me on this, with a few even maintaining that she stays a Cat 5.

<snip>

Now these models don't necessarily mean that it WILL be this strong, however the amount of consistency between the models means that it's very likely at this time.

The question a lot of people have at this time is "will Irma enter the Gulf". The answer is a little complicated at this time. If you look at what we call the "Spaghetti models" then you'll see what we have been seeing for the past 24-48 hours on Irma. The models seem to agree that Irma will get to about equal with Key West, FL then make an abrupt turn up the Eastern seaboard following the Gulf Stream. If this happens, there will be pretty significant impact not only in Florida, but in GA, SC, NC, and VA.

<snip>

Will Irma impact college football during that time? More than likely. There will be some wet games, and some moved games. Irma is not something to mess around with. If she ends up making it into the Gulf, it will be devastating. Just a reminder, this will be the first Major hurricane to strike Florida since 2008. Almost 10 years of no major hurricane landfall for Florida, that streak may end this weekend.
would turn into the Florida panhandle...we know what happened. I know modeling is better but I'd bet wary if I lived from Biloxi east

[TheRef]

So the latest update has come out and Irma has only gotten stronger. Sustained winds of 180 MPH were found. Irma has gone, what we call, full buzzsaw on satellite. With almost nothing to slow Irma down before landfall, the Caribbean will be hit the hardest. This is the strongest hurricane on record not in the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf. With this in mind, if you are even CLOSE to the path of this storm, start executing your pre-evacuation plans. I wouldn't be surprised to see Evac orders within the next 36-48 hours for much of South Florida.

[starkvegasdawg]

Looks like some of the models may be trying to push back east ever so slightly. Even so, FL looks to get ripped apart. Chasing a hurricane is high on my to do list but I don't think I'm crazy enough to get in front of this thing. Right now it has winds equivalent to a mid range EF-4 tornado.

[Dental Dawg33]

It's going to be a bad one and I have a very bad feeling its going to thread the needle right in to the gulf. Also, I believe there is another storm forming right behind Irma?

[TheRef]

It's going to be a bad one and I have a very bad feeling its going to thread the needle right in to the gulf. Also, I believe there is another storm forming right behind Irma?

Yupp. We have TS Jose now. Following a similar path to Irma

[Statecoachingblows**]

Yupp. We have TS Jose now. Following a similar path to Irma

Does one in front of the other help/hurt development potential of the 2nd storm? I'm assuming Jose would go right through the same conducive waters thus strengthening too? Or does the first one sort of draw out all the energy?

[ScoobaDawg]

It's hard to call something so potentially deadly and destructive beautiful, but the power in the pictures of the storm are amazing especially from the new GOES16

https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/905100534826364928/pu/img/pRm0REEm6LKfQ8iy.jpg


Watch in the video the intense coloring blooming.... Shows it growing strong overnight.

http://video.twimg.com/tweet_video/DI9XbqQXcAIkMKt.mp4
https://video.twimg.com/tweet_video/DI9XbqQXcAIkMKt.mp4

Closeup of the eye...

https://video.twimg.com/tweet_video/DI9Y4WoXUAAv6HB.mp4

[ScoobaDawg]

Yupp. We have TS Jose now. Following a similar path to Irma


and likely to have Katia in the gulf in the next day... which will be blocked from going north...so looks to sit and pour rain between Tampico and veracruz.

[gtowndawg]

Does one in front of the other help/hurt development potential of the 2nd storm? I'm assuming Jose would go right through the same conducive waters thus strengthening too? Or does the first one sort of draw out all the energy?

Great question. Ref?

[msbulldog]

Thanks for the info guys, keep updating, you may save some lives.

[ScoobaDawg]

Great question. Ref?

Ref can be more scientific and pull out SST charts and stuff likely but the accuweather report I just found says not really. Irma will churn up some cold water but water temps are only one of the parts that cause hurricanes to strengthen.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/will-katia-join-hurricane-irma-and-tropical-storm-jose-in-the-atlantic/70002649


"Tropical Storm Jose will remain in an environment favorable for intensification with very little wind shear, or change in wind speed or direction with altitude, and dry air. "
https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/05ee800/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2F14%2F07%2F390e785a4196a72e9 b2c8001cba1%2Fjose-95-am.jpg

[Beaver]

Does one in front of the other help/hurt development potential of the 2nd storm? I'm assuming Jose would go right through the same conducive waters thus strengthening too? Or does the first one sort of draw out all the energy?

Lots of factors, but many times the first storm would hurt development of the second storm. The first storm can create its own shear which acts to inhibit tropical systems. More importantly, a strong storm like Irma will generate upwelling of colder ocean water which is vital to tropical development. Additionally, the rain from the Irma will help to cool the ocean as well. If you look at a current sea surface map, you'd see the waters near the coast of Texas are cooler than the rest of the gulf thanks to Harvey.

Right now it looks like Jose won't be able to follow Irma and will stall in the Atlantic before being absorbed by a trough and curving away from the US. Still may end up as a strong storm though just because of the lack of shear in the Atlantic.

[starkvegasdawg]

Hurricane hunters just found 185mph surface winds.

[BrunswickDawg]

Looks like some of the models may be trying to push back east ever so slightly. Even so, FL looks to get ripped apart. Chasing a hurricane is high on my to do list but I don't think I'm crazy enough to get in front of this thing. Right now it has winds equivalent to a mid range EF-4 tornado.
Move to a coast - they will eventually chase you down. Took 16 years, but then I was hit by 2 storms in a month last Sept/Oct.

[ScoobaDawg]

Your local weather report....

Wunderground forecast for the island of Anguilla (UK) tonight: Heavy Rain/Wind. High 86F. SSW winds at 145 to 160 mph, decreasing to 80 to 100 mph.

[TheRef]

185 MPH sustained winds with gusts over 220 MPH. The Florida Keys are evacuating soon with Miami-Dade not far behind. If you have relatives in Florida, help however you can.

[iPat09]

Your local weather report....

Wunderground forecast for the island of Anguilla (UK) tonight: Heavy Rain/Wind. High 86F. SSW winds at 145 to 160 mph, decreasing to 80 to 100 mph.

sounds like balloon flying weather***

[TheRef]

sounds like balloon flying weather***

You kid, but all NWS officea are doing balloon launches every 6 hours now in support. Basically flooding the models with more data to get more accurate.

[starkvegasdawg]

Your local weather report....

Wunderground forecast for the island of Anguilla (UK) tonight: Heavy Rain/Wind. High 86F. SSW winds at 145 to 160 mph, decreasing to 80 to 100 mph.
That'll tear up an umbrella.

[iPat09]

You kid, but all NWS officea are doing balloon launches every 6 hours now in support. Basically flooding the models with more data to get more accurate.

Different type of balloon completely, but that doesn't make that any less impressive. Irma certainly deserves that much attention, at least.

On a side note, I'm an avid hot air balloonist. When winds are high, we always joke that it's fantastic, flyable weather. I never leave the ground if the winds are pushing 10 mph.

[TrueMaroon]

I've got to be at a function in Gulf Shores on Saturday; safe to stay there and leave Sunday morning or do I need to look to head north Saturday night?

[TheRef]

I've got to be at a function in Gulf Shores on Saturday; safe to stay there and leave Sunday morning or do I need to look to head north Saturday night?

You should be good.

[Beaver]

You kid, but all NWS officea are doing balloon launches every 6 hours now in support. Basically flooding the models with more data to get more accurate.

Fun fact. Launching balloons every 6 hours from all sites costs the NWS about $42,000 extra each day they do it. I wish they could do that permanently, but the NWS would need an extra 15 million.

[Hasu Dackds]

I've got to be at a function in Gulf Shores on Saturday; safe to stay there and leave Sunday morning or do I need to look to head north Saturday night?
I'll be down there too, from Saturday to Monday. I think you're pretty safe at that point, unless there is a panic or something.

[Commercecomet24]

You should be good.

I know it's early but what chance do you give it to enter the gulf and impact The Mississippi gulf coast? Thanks for all the info

[SheltonChoked]

Move to a coast - they will eventually chase you down. Took 16 years, but then I was hit by 2 storms in a month last Sept/Oct.
You don't have to even be that close to a coast....

[ScoobaDawg]

I know it's early but what chance do you give it to enter the gulf and impact The Mississippi gulf coast? Thanks for all the info

Wait until tomm or more likely thurs... Models are waiting to see how strong the trough is and how soon it will turn North. Plus it hasn't really started turning north much.. so a lot is up in the air..

[Commercecomet24]

Wait until tomm or more likely thurs... Models are waiting to see how strong the trough is and how soon it will turn North. Plus it hasn't really started turning north much.. so a lot is up in the air..

Thanks appreciate y'all!

[ScoobaDawg]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905144773643816960 (https://twitter.com/RyanMaue)

Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaueFollowing

More




Eye continues to warm now +20?C ... if convection flares or clouds cool (more pink) then Hurricane #Irma (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Irma?src=hash) should reach 200 mph.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DI-4XouVAAAVobr.jpg

[RocketDawg]

That'll tear up an umbrella.

Not the really good handmade British ones. **

[RocketDawg]

Fun fact. Launching balloons every 6 hours from all sites costs the NWS about $42,000 extra each day they do it. I wish they could do that permanently, but the NWS would need an extra 15 million.

And that's not a lot of money from a government perspective. The NWS needs to be funded better.

[BrunswickDawg]

How we looking now weatherdawgs?

To my untrained eye, it looks like we may be looking at a re-curve? Looks like it may be offshore from me late Monday or early Tuesday?

[It_Could_Happen]

I'm just an amateur but I saw a model earlier on Twitter that had a lot of it going east of Florida and turning up into Georgia and SC coast, But like I said I don't really know much about this kind of stuff. I do know that Miami was supposed to travel to Jonesboro, AR to play Arkansas State this weekend and they cancelled that game.

[Hasu Dackds]

Doesn't look good for you. Hopefully it stays off the coast and you only get the left hand side of a weakened storm.

[ScoobaDawg]

I'm just an amateur but I saw a model earlier on Twitter that had a lot of it going east of Florida and turning up into Georgia and SC coast, But like I said I don't really know much about this kind of stuff. I do know that Miami was supposed to travel to Jonesboro, AR to play Arkansas State this weekend and they cancelled that game.


Guys, a LOT of people on twitter and facebook are celebrating this turn to the east coast trend this morning. DO NOT take this as a certainty yet. The cone still covers the whole state of florida and can flip back to the west coast on the next set of model runs.

Continue to monitor and be ready for the WORST because this thing is very strong and not weakening at all.

[DownwardDawg]

Guys, a LOT of people on twitter and facebook are celebrating this turn to the east coast trend this morning. DO NOT take this as a certainty yet. The cone still covers the whole state of florida and can flip back to the west coast on the next set of model runs.

Continue to monitor and be ready for the WORST because this thing is very strong and not weakening at all.

Absolutely. And all it takes is another 2-3 hour "jog" in the southwest direction and then that's a game changer b

[ScoobaDawg]

and there you have it... These latest model runs are more consistent with making landfall near Miami.
Still almost 4 days to go but the cone will start shrinking tomorrow.

Brun... I would seriously consider getting the heck out of town if everything still verifies tomorrow...
All the spaghetti models take it right to you...

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_11

This is one of the latest models and as I mentioned a lot of the models have a very similar track now as we get closer to the event
https://i.imgur.com/97Nd49C.gif

[BrunswickDawg]

Guys, a LOT of people on twitter and facebook are celebrating this turn to the east coast trend this morning. DO NOT take this as a certainty yet. The cone still covers the whole state of florida and can flip back to the west coast on the next set of model runs.

Continue to monitor and be ready for the WORST because this thing is very strong and not weakening at all.


and there you have it... These latest model runs are more consistent with making landfall near Miami.
Still almost 4 days to go but the cone will start shrinking tomorrow.

Yeah, the folks on the Gulf may have been celebrating, but now its got me square in the cone of death with too many models pointing my way. I still think it is going to continue to track east and push more toward the jet stream. I've got about 36 hours before I need to start worrying.

[Commercecomet24]

Yeah, the folks on the Gulf may have been celebrating, but now its got me square in the cone of death with too many models pointing my way. I still think it is going to continue to track east and push more toward the jet stream. I've got about 36 hours before I need to start worrying.

Praying for all y'all in the path! Stay safe Brunswick

[RocketDawg]

Yeah, the folks on the Gulf may have been celebrating, but now its got me square in the cone of death with too many models pointing my way. I still think it is going to continue to track east and push more toward the jet stream. I've got about 36 hours before I need to start worrying.

Yeah, the coast of Georgia doesn't look like the best place to be. Maybe it'll curve more and go out into the Atlantic but I wouldn't count on it right now.

There's a new hurricane in the Gulf now ... Katia. Looks like it's going to move south into Mexico though. So there are 3 at the same time (Irma, Jose, and Katia).

I seem to remember some years ago when they had to go into the Greek alphabet for names that there were 4 in the Atlantic at one time.

[ScoobaDawg]

Yeah, the coast of Georgia doesn't look like the best place to be. Maybe it'll curve more and go out into the Atlantic but I wouldn't count on it right now.

There's a new hurricane in the Gulf now ... Katia. Looks like it's going to move south into Mexico though. So there are 3 at the same time (Irma, Jose, and Katia).

I seem to remember some years ago when they had to go into the Greek alphabet for names that there were 4 in the Atlantic at one time.

Katia is being blocked by the front that has moved through texas and cemented into the gulf. She is blowing up fast though and could do some damage when it moves back on shore to mexico. Already jumped from a depression to a hurricane in a day. and will sit in the same spot basically for the next 30 hours.... Still no model showing it going anywhere besides Mexico though.

Jose is likely to head out to sea but lots of time left to know for a fact.

[shrimp]

Yeah, the folks on the Gulf may have been celebrating, but now its got me square in the cone of death with too many models pointing my way. I still think it is going to continue to track east and push more toward the jet stream. I've got about 36 hours before I need to start worrying.

Agree, it's pointing at us now, but I think it goes east of GA coast. We'll make an evac decision on Friday.

[starkvegasdawg]

Pressure is dropping despite it undergoing an eyewall replacement. Gusts have been measured over 200mph. Top gust I saw was 214mph. Be interesting to see what sustained winds are.

[Gutter Cobreh]

Jose is likely to head out to sea but lots of time left to know for a fact.

Jose was informed that Trump would not allow him access into the country with his name...so he's headed out to sea....

(sorry, couldn't pass that up)

[Coach007]

Thanks to those keeping us updated!

[Political Hack]

People always pay attention to category. The size of the storm and atmospheric pressure coming with it are much more of an indicator of potential damages Imo. Katrina was a Cat 3, but the storm took up the entire Gulf of Mexico and was near the record for the lowest pressure ever (lower is stronger). The pressure is a decent indicator of how much water it's carrying too.

[BrunswickDawg]

People always pay attention to category. The size of the storm and atmospheric pressure coming with it are much more of an indicator of potential damages Imo. Katrina was a Cat 3, but the storm took up the entire Gulf of Mexico and was near the record for the lowest pressure ever (lower is stronger). The pressure is a decent indicator of how much water it's carrying too.

Paying close attention. The Governor just trumped what we were planning here and issued a mandatory evac east of I-95 for Saturday morning. Staff here at the City have been scrambling all morning. We learned a lot last October with Matthew, and are trying to prep more so the return is smoother. I think we are a day early on things out of an over-abundance of caution, but we will see. I'm on a peninsula 1 mile from the sound, so tomorrow afternoon we move inland 12 miles to my parents, then will decide on trekking to Valdosta Saturday morning. We stayed for Matthew, but this one is going to be worse (as of now).

[Mimi's Babies]

Paying close attention. The Governor just trumped what we were planning here and issued a mandatory evac east of I-95 for Saturday morning. Staff here at the City have been scrambling all morning. We learned a lot last October with Matthew, and are trying to prep more so the return is smoother. I think we are a day early on things out of an over-abundance of caution, but we will see. I'm on a peninsula 1 mile from the sound, so tomorrow afternoon we move inland 12 miles to my parents, then will decide on trekking to Valdosta Saturday morning. We stayed for Matthew, but this one is going to be worse (as of now).

Prayers for you, the people you work with and all family members... Stay Safe -- stuff is not worth it....

[Howboutdemdogs]

Just changed next weeks flights into Greenville, SC and out of Augusta, GA with Delta. Parlayed for two weeks later, no charge. Airlines are starting to disruptive service today.

[Commercecomet24]

Paying close attention. The Governor just trumped what we were planning here and issued a mandatory evac east of I-95 for Saturday morning. Staff here at the City have been scrambling all morning. We learned a lot last October with Matthew, and are trying to prep more so the return is smoother. I think we are a day early on things out of an over-abundance of caution, but we will see. I'm on a peninsula 1 mile from the sound, so tomorrow afternoon we move inland 12 miles to my parents, then will decide on trekking to Valdosta Saturday morning. We stayed for Matthew, but this one is going to be worse (as of now).

Stay safe, brother! Prayers for you and all those affected.

[ScoobaDawg]

New Euro model just ran and shifts landfall towards the middle keys... rides up the spine of fl and turns NW instead of curving back across FL. Will be very interesting to see how the NHC changes their view at the next update at 4pm

[TheRef]

Latest track is out from NHC:

https://image.prntscr.com/image/KX1lEhEaRau_A-8qd04sTA.png

I still fully expect this storm to be a Cat 4 at landfall. Which means that we still will not have had a hurricane make US landfall as a Cat 5 since Hurricane Andrew. However, this storm is potentially MUCH worse than Andrew.

[BrunswickDawg]

New Euro model just ran and shifts landfall towards the middle keys... rides up the spine of fl and turns NW instead of curving back across FL. Will be very interesting to see how the NHC changes their view at the next update at 4pm

Do you have easy links to the models?

[confucius say]

Latest track is out from NHC:

https://image.prntscr.com/image/KX1lEhEaRau_A-8qd04sTA.png

I still fully expect this storm to be a Cat 4 at landfall. Which means that we still will not have had a hurricane make US landfall as a Cat 5 since Hurricane Andrew. However, this storm is potentially MUCH worse than Andrew.

So landfall around Miami?

[TheRef]

So landfall around Miami?

If it doesn't make landfall at Miami, it'll be pretty damn close.

[TheRef]

Do you have easy links to the models?

A good guide for tropical systems is http://www.tropicaltidbits.com

[BrunswickDawg]

A good guide for tropical systems is http://www.tropicaltidbits.com

Thanks Ref - good site

[biscuit]

A good guide for tropical systems is http://www.tropicaltidbits.com

Thanks, good stuff

[TheRef]

Fun thing with Tropical Tidbits is that you can live track the Hurricane Hunter missions and see their data as live as possible (10 minute intervals)

[Roy Munson]

Fun thing with Tropical Tidbits is that you can live track the Hurricane Hunter missions and see their data as live as possible (10 minute intervals)

We

[Wet Dawg]

Heard its shifting west a little. Is this true? What are the chances it moves to the Gulf?

[TheRef]

It did shift a little West, yes. As in the center will trek its way through the Florida land and up through GA, NE AL, and TN. The setup in the Gulf is still not conducive to a landfall on the MS or AL gulf coast.

[RougeDawg]

It did shift a little West, yes. As in the center will trek its way through the Florida land and up through GA, NE AL, and TN. The setup in the Gulf is still not conducive to a landfall on the MS or AL gulf coast.

This one gave me the feeling of a Katrina when it was sitting over a week ago. If I recall correctly they had Katrina turning similarly to Irma but she never turned and kept churning right into gulf.

One thing no one really talked about was its slow movement and never speeding up to get caught by the front that went through. That's one thing I've been finding odd about this entire thing. All protections last week had the storm speeding up and turning, even though it remained at 15-16 mph. Not one word about the impacts of the storm not speeding up its forward pace. That's when I started prepping in New Orleans. Too many times/storms I've seen these clowns continue to watch/rely on the models(that incorporate speeding up) and not pay attention to the basic physics of motion, speed and inertia.

[TimberBeast]

This one gave me the feeling of a Katrina when it was sitting over a week ago. If I recall correctly they had Katrina turning similarly to Irma but she never turned and kept churning right into gulf.

One thing no one really talked about was its slow movement and never speeding up to get caught by the front that went through. That's one thing I've been finding odd about this entire thing. All protections last week had the storm speeding up and turning, even though it remained at 15-16 mph. Not one word about the impacts of the storm not speeding up its forward pace. That's when I started prepping in New Orleans. Too many times/storms I've seen these clowns continue to watch/rely on the models(that incorporate speeding up) and not pay attention to the basic physics of motion, speed and inertia.

Agree 100%, this thing doesn't look like it's turning North anytime soon. I'll believe it when I see it.

[TheRef]

This one gave me the feeling of a Katrina when it was sitting over a week ago. If I recall correctly they had Katrina turning similarly to Irma but she never turned and kept churning right into gulf.

One thing no one really talked about was its slow movement and never speeding up to get caught by the front that went through. That's one thing I've been finding odd about this entire thing. All protections last week had the storm speeding up and turning, even though it remained at 15-16 mph. Not one word about the impacts of the storm not speeding up its forward pace. That's when I started prepping in New Orleans. Too many times/storms I've seen these clowns continue to watch/rely on the models(that incorporate speeding up) and not pay attention to the basic physics of motion, speed and inertia.

The thing is this, the whole mid-latitude setup is WAYYYY different than for Katrina.

[Commercecomet24]

The thing is this, the whole mid-latitude setup is WAYYYY different than for Katrina.

I believe that advances in technology and the ability to forecast have improved a pretty good bit since Katrina

[HSVDawg]

Agree 100%, this thing doesn't look like it's turning North anytime soon. I'll believe it when I see it.

What are the chances of it regaining Category 5 strength if it enters the gulf?

[TheRef]

What are the chances of it regaining Category 5 strength if it enters the gulf?

Depends on the amount of shear created from the Cuban mountains to the South and the effect in South Florida and the Everglades.

[confucius say]

Shifted further west again unh? Coming up west coast of Florida now is what I'm seeing.

[BrunswickDawg]

Shifted further west again unh? Coming up west coast of Florida now is what I'm seeing.

Well, I'm holding out for now in Brunswick. The shift west has gotten us almost out of harms way - or at least the nastiest of what should be a TS by the time it reaches Ga. I was going to Valdosta, but they will get hit harder than us right now.

[RocketDawg]

Shifted further west again unh? Coming up west coast of Florida now is what I'm seeing.

Yes, and the latest is that it will once again become a Cat 5 at Key West (according to a CNN bulletin).

[RougeDawg]

The thing is this, the whole mid-latitude setup is WAYYYY different than for Katrina.

My point is all of the models were/are taking into account an increase of overall forward motion to allow the front to turn it. To whicn has not occurred and looks like it's slowing down jogging south and west.

Here is another overall question for all of these storms the past few weeks. Why are these things moving so unnaturally. Katia is and has been sitting in almost the same spot for days, when the models has it already fizzled out by now? Irma keeps shifting the cone. Harvey had more rain on the hisicirally dry west side than the eastern side that was over the water. How did the water continue to just inundate the Western side of Harvey when most storms get drenched on the eastern side?

Being from the MS gulf coast and living through multiple storms including getting wipes out by Katrina, I've new fascinated with and watched these things for over 30 years. This year's storms are. It acting "natural."

I want to see your response before bringing something else up.

[starkvegasdawg]

Just my opinion and I may be dead wrong...I think there's just a lack of strong upper level steering currents right now and the storms are just meandering around. Normally, by this time of year cold fronts are starting to try and make their way into at least the northern US which is enough to pull tropical systems north. A very zonal quiet pattern now is not doing that.

[Homedawg]

My point is all of the models were/are taking into account an increase of overall forward motion to allow the front to turn it. To whicn has not occurred and looks like it's slowing down jogging south and west.

Here is another overall question for all of these storms the past few weeks. Why are these things moving so unnaturally. Katia is and has been sitting in almost the same spot for days, when the models has it already fizzled out by now? Irma keeps shifting the cone. Harvey had more rain on the hisicirally dry west side than the eastern side that was over the water. How did the water continue to just inundate the Western side of Harvey when most storms get drenched on the eastern side?

Being from the MS gulf coast and living through multiple storms including getting wipes out by Katrina, I've new fascinated with and watched these things for over 30 years. This year's storms are. It acting "natural."

I want to see your response before bringing something else up.

Oh shit, rouge now knows more about weather than a weather guy. Much like his hitting instruction prowess.

[TheRef]

My point is all of the models were/are taking into account an increase of overall forward motion to allow the front to turn it. To whicn has not occurred and looks like it's slowing down jogging south and west.

Here is another overall question for all of these storms the past few weeks. Why are these things moving so unnaturally. Katia is and has been sitting in almost the same spot for days, when the models has it already fizzled out by now? Irma keeps shifting the cone. Harvey had more rain on the hisicirally dry west side than the eastern side that was over the water. How did the water continue to just inundate the Western side of Harvey when most storms get drenched on the eastern side?

Being from the MS gulf coast and living through multiple storms including getting wipes out by Katrina, I've new fascinated with and watched these things for over 30 years. This year's storms are. It acting "natural."

I want to see your response before bringing something else up.

We are still working on our hurricane models. The problems we are having with Hurricanes on our models are that they are SO different than mid-latitude systems, thus we have to basically re-write all the formulas. Things are necessarily moving unnaturally. Tropical cyclones move to the best possible environment for it until they are "nudged" into landfall. With this in mind. Many, including myself, were expecting the storm to be "nudged" towards the Eastern side of Florida and follow the Gulf Stream. So these storms are still moving naturally.

The NE quadrant of the storm is usually where you get the strongest WINDS not necessarily the most rain. That's just due to the natural dynamics of a tropical system that like.

[confucius say]

We are still working on our hurricane models. The problems we are having with Hurricanes on our models are that they are SO different than mid-latitude systems, thus we have to basically re-write all the formulas. Things are necessarily moving unnaturally. Tropical cyclones move to the best possible environment for it until they are "nudged" into landfall. With this in mind. Many, including myself, were expecting the storm to be "nudged" towards the Eastern side of Florida and follow the Gulf Stream. So these storms are still moving naturally.

The NE quadrant of the storm is usually where you get the strongest WINDS not necessarily the most rain. That's just due to the natural dynamics of a tropical system that like.

That's why Mississippi coast got the worst of the wind in Katrina. Much worse than New Orleans, which got flooding. I remember reading that was the reason.

[TheRef]

That's why Mississippi coast got the worst of the wind in Katrina. Much worse than New Orleans, which got flooding. I remember reading that was the reason.

Correct. The worst possible winds are going to be in the NE quadrant of the storm. No matter what.

[starkvegasdawg]

Correct. The worst possible winds are going to be in the NE quadrant of the storm. No matter what.

And your tornado threat.

[starkvegasdawg]

Irma back to a Cat 5 with 160mph winds.

[Statecoachingblows**]

I'm no weather guru so I'll ask, did anyone anticipate Irma slowing down? Now at 13mph. Does that put gulf in play or included as part of the model runs?

[TimberBeast]

Irma back to a Cat 5 with 160mph winds.

I've seen people saying it has slowed because of Cuba, hopefully to start the turn north. Being on the MS coast I hope that's the case but still not seeing anything but West.

[starkvegasdawg]

Forecast is it turns north tomorrow. If my midadternoon it's still chugging west then I might get a bit concerned. One thing is it going over Cuba should weaken it some.

[TimberBeast]

Forecast is it turns north tomorrow. If my midadternoon it's still chugging west then I might get a bit concerned. One thing is it going over Cuba should weaken it some.

I hope so for our own sake in MS. Truth be told though somebody is about to get rocked, I hope somehow this thing dies down.

[Schultzy]

People always pay attention to category. The size of the storm and atmospheric pressure coming with it are much more of an indicator of potential damages Imo. Katrina was a Cat 3, but the storm took up the entire Gulf of Mexico and was near the record for the lowest pressure ever (lower is stronger). The pressure is a decent indicator of how much water it's carrying too.

Pressure is 930 millibar so is that high or low?

[TheRef]

Pressure is 930 millibar so is that high or low?

It's higher than what it was. Cuba is providing a lot of shear and inhibition at the moment.

[Indndawg]

It's higher than what it was. Cuba is providing a lot of shear and inhibition at the moment.

then turning up, NW, towards midsouth

[TheRef]

then turning up, NW, towards midsouth

Word of advice, never trust the NAM with a tropical cyclone. The NAM was made solely for mid-latitude systems, not hurricanes. Now, if you want to look at a model designed for hurricanes by the US, then look at the HWRF model.

[Indndawg]

Word of advice, never trust the NAM with a tropical cyclone. The NAM was made solely for mid-latitude systems, not hurricanes. Now, if you want to look at a model designed for hurricanes by the US, then look at the HWRF model.

systems. Ref, would you agree w/that?

[Indndawg]

BTW, I blv the US spent alot of $ on its modeling (GFS), are we getting our bang for the buck from that? I've read they are deep physics issues w/the model

[TheRef]

systems. Ref, would you agree w/that?

The Euro is the cream of the crop as far as models are concerned. GFS lags a little bit behind, but considering the budget it is running on it'll do.

Just remember that each model has strengths and weaknesses. The ECMWF has been really good at handling major systems like Irma and Harvey. But it does matter on the initialization on how good the model will be.

[TheRef]

BTW, I blv the US spent alot of $ on its modeling (GFS), are we getting our bang for the buck from that? I've read they are deep physics issues w/the model

While we have spent a good amount on the GFS, there is SOOOO much more needed. We are still lagging so far behind in terms of modeling. The reason is just due to the fact that we started off behind the 8-ball. We will continue to fight it though.

[starkvegasdawg]

http://i.imgur.com/RYz9tae.jpg

[TimberBeast]

Looks like the strike zone is somewhere between Mexico and South Carolina.

[TimberBeast]

Is there any chance this thing goes out into the Gulf and hits LA, MS, AL, FL panhandle?

[RocketDawg]

Is there any chance this thing goes out into the Gulf and hits LA, MS, AL, FL panhandle?

Based on no data other than the track we see and extrapolating that, yeah, I'd say that's a possibility. And the water temperature off the Keys is about 90 degrees. Like a bathtub.

They're still expecting a northerly turn, and the entire Florida penisula now has a hurricane warning.

[starkvegasdawg]

Track has now gone WNW. There's an upper level low over MS and that's what they hope turns it north.

[RocketDawg]

After it gets through destroying Florida, looks like it's forecast to come right over Huntsville Monday night with gusts up to 45, then park itself over southern middle Tennessee. Might be a lot of rain here next week.

[TimberBeast]

Looks like it's finally doing what it's supposed to do. Hopefully I don't have to wake up hungover and haul ass in the morning.

[RocketDawg]

Looks like it's finally doing what it's supposed to do. Hopefully I don't have to wake up hungover and haul ass in the morning.

Where are you?

[TimberBeast]

MS Coast

[biscuit]

any updates?

[TimberBeast]

any updates?

Was just about to ask the same thing, has anything changed? Still nervous here.

[starkvegasdawg]

Was just about to ask the same thing, has anything changed? Still nervous here.

Back to a Cat 4 but track looks as forecast. West FL going to get raked.

[RocketDawg]

We have a Tropical Storm Watch in north Alabama. I've never seen that before.

[starkvegasdawg]

We have a Tropical Storm Watch in north Alabama. I've never seen that before.

It's for the possibility of TS force winds inland. They did it for Katrina.

[BrunswickDawg]

Bump -

The past 14 hours have been pretty wild. Rain started a little over 24 hours ago. Wind was constant all day yesterday, but moderate. Around midnight last night the winds picked up. Power went out at 2:30 am. Steady winds of 45-55 from 2:30 am until 2:30 pm - with gusts pushing 70. I have some limited damage - fascia and soffit on the house mostly and a '93 Wrangler with a crushed top - and some major live oaks that will need to come down.

Storm surge has been incredibly heavy - I live 200 yards from the marsh and am at 11 feet above sea level. By streets, I am 3 blocks from the normal tide. I had tidal surge about 75 feet from my house at 1:00 pm high tide. This storm was far worse than Matthew even though Matthew was much closer to Brunswick.

We are safe though. Hopefully any other Dawgs out in the path of this beast are ok too. See y'all in Athens!

[ScoobaDawg]

Bump -

The past 14 hours have been pretty wild. Rain started a little over 24 hours ago. Wind was constant all day yesterday, but moderate. Around midnight last night the winds picked up. Power went out at 2:30 am. Steady winds of 45-55 from 2:30 am until 2:30 pm - with gusts pushing 70. I have some limited damage - fascia and soffit on the house mostly and a '93 Wrangler with a crushed top - and some major live oaks that will need to come down.

Storm surge has been incredibly heavy - I live 200 yards from the marsh and am at 11 feet above sea level. By streets, I am 3 blocks from the normal tide. I had tidal surge about 75 feet from my house at 1:00 pm high tide. This storm was far worse than Matthew even though Matthew was much closer to Brunswick.

We are safe though. Hopefully any other Dawgs out in the path of this beast are ok too. See y'all in Athens!

Glad it stayed west and didn't turn back for a direct hit like once thought for you. Glad you are safe and no major issues.

[Commercecomet24]

Bump -

The past 14 hours have been pretty wild. Rain started a little over 24 hours ago. Wind was constant all day yesterday, but moderate. Around midnight last night the winds picked up. Power went out at 2:30 am. Steady winds of 45-55 from 2:30 am until 2:30 pm - with gusts pushing 70. I have some limited damage - fascia and soffit on the house mostly and a '93 Wrangler with a crushed top - and some major live oaks that will need to come down.

Storm surge has been incredibly heavy - I live 200 yards from the marsh and am at 11 feet above sea level. By streets, I am 3 blocks from the normal tide. I had tidal surge about 75 feet from my house at 1:00 pm high tide. This storm was far worse than Matthew even though Matthew was much closer to Brunswick.

We are safe though. Hopefully any other Dawgs out in the path of this beast are ok too. See y'all in Athens!

Glad you're safe!

[shrimp]

Bump -

The past 14 hours have been pretty wild. Rain started a little over 24 hours ago. Wind was constant all day yesterday, but moderate. Around midnight last night the winds picked up. Power went out at 2:30 am. Steady winds of 45-55 from 2:30 am until 2:30 pm - with gusts pushing 70. I have some limited damage - fascia and soffit on the house mostly and a '93 Wrangler with a crushed top - and some major live oaks that will need to come down.

Storm surge has been incredibly heavy - I live 200 yards from the marsh and am at 11 feet above sea level. By streets, I am 3 blocks from the normal tide. I had tidal surge about 75 feet from my house at 1:00 pm high tide. This storm was far worse than Matthew even though Matthew was much closer to Brunswick.

We are safe though. Hopefully any other Dawgs out in the path of this beast are ok too. See y'all in Athens!

Similar situation, up the road at Tybee and Wilmington island. Storm surge flooded many homes within hundreds of feet from my house, but we stayed high and dry.

Matthew was thousands of trees down, no flooding. Irma had lots of flooding, but just a handful of downed trees.

[BrunswickDawg]

Similar situation, up the road at Tybee and Wilmington island. Storm surge flooded many homes within hundreds of feet from my house, but we stayed high and dry.

Matthew was thousands of trees down, no flooding. Irma had lots of flooding, but just a handful of downed trees.

Good to hear y'all made thru shrimp.