Non-Conference Basketball Schedule

[hailstatetakeover]

https://hailstatetakes.com/2017/08/07/mississippi-state-non-conference-basketball-schedule/

[Quaoarsking]

Our RPI is going to be shit.

[dawgman15]

Not necessarily, Dayton is usually good and Cincinnati usually is too, we will really be relying on the SEC teams to make up for that as well too with the influx of good coaches and good recruiting classes.

[MarketingBully]

With the talent and experience we have, no reason to not be 12-1 in our OOC going into the SEC schedule.

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Dayton & Cinci are 2 good RPI games. SFA & Green Bay are usually respected mid major teams so that's 2 solid games. Then you have to hope a couple of the lower teams turn into tourney teams (Jacksonville St made the tourney last year). It won't be a top 20 RPI schedule but if we win games it won't kill us at all.

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

Not necessarily, Dayton is usually good and Cincinnati usually is too, we will really be relying on the SEC teams to make up for that as well too with the influx of good coaches and good recruiting classes.

Plus Stephen F Austin has made the tourney 3 years in a row. Made the second round twice of those 3.

[Dawg61]

Plus Stephen F Austin has made the tourney 3 years in a row. Made the second round twice of those 3.

That was with Brad Underwood and they didn't make the NCAA tourney last year they lost in the 1st round of the CIT tournament. Dayton lost Archie Miller too so we should expect some drop off in play with both those schools. North Dakota State isn't terrible though.

[smootness]

It is certainly going to make it very tough next year to produce a good RPI unless several of those teams improve by leaps and bounds.

Here is the final RPI of these teams from last year, from best to worst:
12
30
111
151
158
164
203
217
244
331
342
349
(North GA was not D-1 last year)

For reference, here is the final RPI of our OOC schedule last year, from best to worst:
55
69
72
97
104
184
200
222
242
281
306
331

We went 9-3 against that schedule last year, then 7-13 against an improved SEC, and our final RPI was 149. Even with Dayton and Cincy, that OOC schedule could easily end up being worse. So you're probably looking at needing to go 11-2 or better (which we should be able to do) in the OOC portion, then something like 12-6 at least in the SEC to get an RPI in the range of a Tournament team. Realistically, we may need to go 24-7 to put us in at-large territory.

[MarketingBully]

It is certainly going to make it very tough next year to produce a good RPI unless several of those teams improve by leaps and bounds.

Here is the final RPI of these teams from last year, from best to worst:
12
30
111
151
158
164
203
217
244
331
342
349
(North GA was not D-1 last year)

For reference, here is the final RPI of our OOC schedule last year, from best to worst:
55
69
72
97
104
184
200
222
242
281
306
331

We went 9-3 against that schedule last year, then 7-13 against an improved SEC, and our final RPI was 149. Even with Dayton and Cincy, that OOC schedule could easily end up being worse. So you're probably looking at needing to go 11-2 or better (which we should be able to do) in the OOC portion, then something like 12-6 at least in the SEC to get an RPI in the range of a Tournament team. Realistically, we may need to go 24-7 to put us in at-large territory.

We very well could go the South Carolina route where we have a solid won-loss record this year and are a bubble team but end up in the NIT and make a huge run to the NCAA tournament in 2018-2019 when Reggie Perry and our top ten class get here. I'm good with that route personally.

[MarketingBully]

This is possibly the deepest the SEC has been in quite sometime. If we go 10-8 or 11-7 in the league, we will be in good shape.

[dawgs]

I never understand handicapping your way to Ws. The committee has definitely shown in the last decade that RPI and non-conf SOS matter a ton, so to gerrymander the schedule to go 11-1 out of conference but with an 100+ SOS doesn't do us any good. Would much rather be 9-3 with 3+ top 50 RPI games, and another 3-5 top 100 RPI games. Another thing too is we could have a schedule where we should still go no worse than 10-2 out of conference but simply schedule teams expected to be in the mid-100s RPI instead of 200+. We should never schedule more than 1-2 200+ RPI teams and should load up on teams with an RPI of like 75-150. If we are good, we should beat those teams, and if not, then we shouldn't be worried about rigging the schedule for Ws to give a false illusion of the state of our program.

[dawgs]

We very well could go the South Carolina route where we have a solid won-loss record this year and are a bubble team but end up in the NIT and make a huge run to the NCAA tournament in 2018-2019 when Reggie Perry and our top ten class get here. I'm good with that route personally.

I'd rather make the tournament this season, then make a deep tournament run next season.

[smootness]

This is possibly the deepest the SEC has been in quite sometime. If we go 10-8 or 11-7 in the league, we will be in good shape.

We'll have to see. I don't buy that a 4-5 win improvement gets us in.

[Quaoarsking]

No joke, if the athletic department hired me as a scheduling consultant, I could significantly improve all of our RPIs

We should never EVER play a team expected to be sub-200. No matter what. If a team unexpectedly tanks, or an SEC team has an RPI that bad, so be it, but we should never walk into that willingly.

Also, we should be playing more road and neutral games.

[MarketingBully]

I'd rather make the tournament this season, then make a deep tournament run next season.

So if we made the NIT this year and the final four the next you would rather make the tournament this year?

[smootness]

No joke, if the athletic department hired me as a scheduling consultant, I could significantly improve all of our RPIs

We should never EVER play a team expected to be sub-200. No matter what. If a team unexpectedly tanks, or an SEC team has an RPI that bad, so be it, but we should never walk into that willingly.

Also, we should be playing more road and neutral games.

Yeah, it's not hard. Which means there is probably something else driving some of these decisions.

[smootness]

So if we made the NIT this year and the final four the next you would rather make the tournament this year?

Why would making the NIT instead of the Tournament this year make us more likely to make a deep run in 2018-2019?

[Dawg61]

Scheduling isn't as easy as just picking whoever you want to play. Both sides have to agree.

[smootness]

Scheduling isn't as easy as just picking whoever you want to play. Both sides have to agree.

This is also true.

[Quaoarsking]

Scheduling isn't as easy as just picking whoever you want to play. Both sides have to agree.

Fair enough, but there's no reason to play three bottom 10 teams, all but 2 games at home, no p5 opponents, etc. We could do much better.

When I get home I'll put this schedule through my RPI program and see what our RPI would have been last year with various records. Teams will improve and/or get worse this year, but it should be a decent approximation.

My gut says 22-9 (11-7) wouldn't have put us even on the bubble, but stay tuned for the actual answer.


I will give one piece of credit for scheduling D2 team North Georgia. You can play up to 4 non-D1 teams and have them count as nothing in the RPI formula, as if the game never happened. We are playing several games that will hurt our RPI even if we win, but at least that won't happen for the North Georgia game.

[WPDawg]

Fair enough, but there's no reason to play three bottom 10 teams, all but 2 games at home, no p5 opponents, etc. We could do much better.

When I get home I'll put this schedule through my RPI program and see what our RPI would have been last year with various records. Teams will improve and/or get worse this year, but it should be a decent approximation.

My gut says 22-9 (11-7) wouldn't have put us even on the bubble, but stay tuned for the actual answer.

I will give one piece of credit for scheduling D2 team North Georgia. You can play up to 4 non-D1 teams and have them count as nothing in the RPI formula, as if the game never happened. We are playing several games that will hurt our RPI even if we win, but at least that won't happen for the North Georgia game.

RPI formula should go 1 step further. In addition to "free" games against non-D1 competition (4 seems like a lot) , the calculation should drop a teams 2 highest (easiest?) RPI games against D-1 competition. Allows P5 Conference teams to schedule other smaller conferences early in season which would be good for all involved. Scheduling is easier, P5 gets some warmup games that don't carry any RPI significance and the smaller schools get a pay day.

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Also we've been a low RPI team the last few years so what big time schools want to bring their RPI down playing MSU?

[MetEdDawg]

This is possibly the deepest the SEC has been in quite sometime. If we go 10-8 or 11-7 in the league, we will be in good shape.

Pearl said yesterday or the day before I believe that people shouldn't be surprised if half the SEC makes the NCAA Tournament field. Not sure I would go that far, but 5 is a legit number.

[Quaoarsking]

So I project that playing this schedule last year instead of the one we actually did, but maintaining the same 9-3 record, would have given us approximately 10 ranks lower in the RPI. That's a shockingly bad fail on the part of Howland and Cohen.


I then used my RPI program to project what record we need to have on this schedule to make the NCAA Tournament. I'm assuming that each team will be as good in 2017-18 as they were in 2016-17, which is obviously not going to happen, but it will probably be pretty close on average. If the teams on our schedule are collectively stronger than last they were last year (which might be likely if the SEC improves), our RPIs will be better than in this projection, but keep in mind that they could just as easily be worse.

22-9: RPI of 55 - probably out
23-8: RPI of 42 - probably in, but on the bubble since our SOS will be criticized
24-7: RPI of 29 - should be safely in.

So if we can go 12-1 in the non-conference (winning all but Cincinnati), it would take 10-8, 11-7, and 12-6 for those 3 RPIs. If we drop a couple and go 10-3 in the non-conference, we'd have to go 12-6, 13-5, or 14-4 for those 3 benchmarks.

[HSVDawg]

It is certainly going to make it very tough next year to produce a good RPI unless several of those teams improve by leaps and bounds.

Here is the final RPI of these teams from last year, from best to worst:
12
30
111
151
158
164
203
217
244
331
342
349
(North GA was not D-1 last year)

For reference, here is the final RPI of our OOC schedule last year, from best to worst:
55
69
72
97
104
184
200
222
242
281
306
331

We went 9-3 against that schedule last year, then 7-13 against an improved SEC, and our final RPI was 149. Even with Dayton and Cincy, that OOC schedule could easily end up being worse. So you're probably looking at needing to go 11-2 or better (which we should be able to do) in the OOC portion, then something like 12-6 at least in the SEC to get an RPI in the range of a Tournament team. Realistically, we may need to go 24-7 to put us in at-large territory.

It would be all well and good if we just dropped the 2-3 bottom feeders and replaced them with anyone in the Top 200. Take away Alabama State and add UL Monroe. Take away FAMU and add MTSU or UAB. A decent RPI isn't about playing a bunch of good teams. It's about not playing many, if any, really really bad teams. We should honestly quit playing SWAC teams in all sports. I don't know why we continue to let those programs pull us down like a boat anchor in these RPI discussions every year in basketball and baseball.

[Dawg61]

Damn Howland is handicapping us bad with this schedule. 12-6 in SEC ain't happening.