Bill Connelly's Annual Mississippi State Preview

[Willy Lump Lump]

Bill Connelly's annual S&P+ preview is out this morning here (https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/8/3/16053642/mississippi-state-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster).

As many on here have speculated, it all comes down to whether the defense can pick up the slack that it dropped last year. Connelly seems to be very optimistic about our 2018 prospects.

[ShotgunDawg]

Great article.

Connelly does a great job.

There are some things you can pick apart, mostly the quotes about Dear & the replacing 3 OL, but overall he' right on the money.

Basically, there are 6 games in which MSU has a >51% chance of winning with 3 others in which the % is greater than 35%.

If Grantham's defense & Fitz's passing come along, MSU can win 8-9 games.

[bostondawg]

Excellent analysis.

From any sufficiently-robust quantitative method, pegging us at 6 wins is probably expected. But I, like many on here, think around 8 wins is more likely. I think that comes on two major fronts:
1) A vast overrating of the talent we lost last year. This isn't a shot at Richie Brown. But our leading tackler from last year would probably not start in 2018 for us. That's a good problem to have. I'd honestly say the only losses that hurt are Fred Ross (who couldn't even find himself drafted) and Justin Senior (who got drafted 210th overall). We had one player overall drafted, and he was drafted in the sixth round. That's our worst draft since 09, when we had no one drafted. To put it lightly: last year's team was terrible when it comes to legit SEC talent. Many of the best players we lost will never sniff an NFL team.
(1a) Related: underrating of talent we have below those starters. Connelly questions Jamal Peters, when Peters was roughly our best corner down the stretch. Our passing defense ranked like 110 last year. We will be much improved in the secondary this year, which no one is giving us credit for.
2) Overrating of opponents. LSU at number 4 in the S&P+? To comprehend that, I need a whisky before noon, and I'd still spit it out while reading that. As time goes on, the SEC is getting worse. Saban's dominance is showing everyone the door. We just need to hold out for a few more years--let Saban get Sumlim and Malzhan fired, let OM tank, let Arky get tired of Big Bertha Bielema, let Orgeron falter as his history suggests he will. We just gotta hold steady and weather this storm. The SEC is getting much, much worse in quality of coaching.