Braves

[msstate7]

Albies to Atlanta. Odd

[BrunswickDawg]

I think we are starting to see the transition to playing for 2018/2019. Either that or a move is pending.

[parabrave]

Moving him up. Did you notice FF hurting his shoulder in yesterdays game, then hit that HR. I wonder if that throwing to 1st is affecting his arm and shoulder. They might put Camargo at 3rd and try Albies at SS to give FF a break.

[Tbonewannabe]

What does it do to his clock coming up now? I figured he would get a September call up but this is early.

[msstate7]

Moving him up. Did you notice FF hurting his shoulder in yesterdays game, then hit that HR. I wonder if that throwing to 1st is affecting his arm and shoulder. They might put Camargo at 3rd and try Albies at SS to give FF a break.
I hope we didn't call him up for that. SRod could play 3b. Not really a fan of calling him up right now, but still super excited to see him

[parabrave]

Yeah I thought it a little early bringing him up in AUG. Everyone knows Albie and Acuna are coming up in Sept. Someone might be hurt and they aren't telling. Don't think Philips is being traded. Gonna be intresting to see tonites lineup.

[MetEdDawg]

I hope we didn't call him up for that. SRod could play 3b. Not really a fan of calling him up right now, but still super excited to see him

S Rod sucks really bad. He's not a viable lineup guy right now. Not good.

[msstate7]

S Rod sucks really bad. He's not a viable lineup guy right now. Not good.

We just got swept by the worse team in baseball. Does it matter who plays 3b at this point? Surely isn't important enough to start albies' clock imo

[msstate7]

1. Ender Inciarte (L) CF
2. Danny Santana (S) 3B
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
4. Matt Adams (L) LF
5. Tyler Flowers (R) C
6. Nick Markakis (L) RF
7. Ozzie Albies (S) 2B
8. Johan Camargo (S) SS
9. Lucas Sims (R) P

Way to throw the A defense for sims' debut, snitker haha

[dawgs]

We just got swept by the worse team in baseball. Does it matter who plays 3b at this point? Surely isn't important enough to start albies' clock imo

Take his lumps now, and not next year (when y'all could be a surprise wild card contender) or 2019 (when y'all have a shot to challenge the nats). I also don't think this changes his clock much outside of maybe making him a super 2 guy, which I believe makes him eligible for arbitration a year early, but it won't cost y'all a year of team control.

[smootness]

Take his lumps now, and not next year (when y'all could be a surprise wild card contender) or 2019 (when y'all have a shot to challenge the nats). I also don't think this changes his clock much outside of maybe making him a super 2 guy, which I believe makes him eligible for arbitration a year early, but it won't cost y'all a year of team control.

Yes, it does cost a year of control, at least as compared to keeping him down for the first couple weeks of next year, which is what we should have done.

If we're dead set on having him in the Opening Day lineup, then sure, go ahead and call him up. But why be dead set on that? The extra year is way more valuable than those 2 weeks.

[dawgs]

Yes, it does cost a year of control, at least as compared to keeping him down for the first couple weeks of next year, which is what we should have done.

If we're dead set on having him in the Opening Day lineup, then sure, go ahead and call him up. But why be dead set on that? The extra year is way more valuable than those 2 weeks.

Team control over players is fair idea, but the way they have it set up is beyond frustrating and dumb imo. Hey, a guy is ready now, but we are gonna keep our best player at the position down because in 6 years we would have an extra team control year! What would you say if the braves had kept him down, started some scrap at 2B or SS for a month, called up albies, he takes a month to adjust, and then starts raking June through September, but the braves miss a playoff spot by 2 games. Wouldn't you have preferred for him to take some lumps in a meaningless 2017 adjusting, then hit the ground rolling on opening day in 2018? Because I think the braves could very well compete for a playoff spot next year, and definitely in 2019, and having your talent ready to go on opening day 2018 could be the difference between the playoffs and not.

[smootness]

Team control over players is fair idea, but the way they have it set up is beyond frustrating and dumb imo. Hey, a guy is ready now, but we are gonna keep our best player at the position down because in 6 years we would have an extra team control year! What would you say if the braves had kept him down, started some scrap at 2B or SS for a month, called up albies, he takes a month to adjust, and then starts raking June through September, but the braves miss a playoff spot by 2 games. Wouldn't you have preferred for him to take some lumps in a meaningless 2017 adjusting, then hit the ground rolling on opening day in 2018? Because I think the braves could very well compete for a playoff spot next year, and definitely in 2019, and having your talent ready to go on opening day 2018 could be the difference between the playoffs and not.

I'd rather get the extra year of control over an extra 2 weeks next year. It's that simple.

[dawgs]

I'd rather get the extra year of control over an extra 2 weeks next year. It's that simple.

You never know what 6-7 years from now will bring. Braves might sign albies to a reasonable extension extending through his age 30 season anyway and that extra year doesn't even really matter.

[parabrave]

Read Dave Obrien. Snik says He want Phillips to play 3rd for the rest of the season. Albies will be the everday 2nd basesman and FF will be at 1st. I think FF hurt himself throwing to 1st yesterday.

[smootness]

You never know what 6-7 years from now will bring. Braves might sign albies to a reasonable extension extending through his age 30 season anyway and that extra year doesn't even really matter.

Sure, but I do know this year doesn't matter and the first 2 weeks next year aren't a huge loss.

It costs additional money either way. I'm just not a fan of it. If we call up Acuna, I'll be ticked.

[msstate7]

Sure, but I do know this year doesn't matter and the first 2 weeks next year aren't a huge loss.

It costs additional money either way. I'm just not a fan of it. If we call up Acuna, I'll be ticked.

Acuna and soroka in 1 week haha

[BoomBoom]

Albies to Atlanta. Odd

continues they're trend of aggressively positioning for contending in 2018, rather than traditionally taking more time with these young guys and playing for 2019. if we win a natty, it will be worth it, otherwise they'll be a lot of wailing about how monumentously stupid this was come 2023/2024.

at this rate, i expect Acuna to come up in September, and Allard and Soroka to hit AAA this month. i would be setting up for Albies and Acuna to come up April 15th, with Allard and Soroka in AAA with maybe a mid-year callup, but at this point i wouldn't be surprised to see all 4 on the Opening Day roster.

2019 Roster:
SP Folty
SP Newcomb
SP Allard
SP Soroka
SP Wren
RP Sims
RP Minter
C A Jackson
1B FF
2B Albies
SS Swanson
3B Riley
LF D Peterson
CF Inciarte
RF Acuna

hell, that may be the roster by June 2018 at this rate......

[BoomBoom]

Sure, but I do know this year doesn't matter and the first 2 weeks next year aren't a huge loss.

It costs additional money either way. I'm just not a fan of it. If we call up Acuna, I'll be ticked.

doesn't cost additional money. player makes the same salary each year whether they come up now, April 1, or April 15th. difference is the latter will be a Super 2, and will tack on an extra year of team control (year 7) rather than be a FA.

[parabrave]

continues they're trend of aggressively positioning for contending in 2018, rather than traditionally taking more time with these young guys and playing for 2019. if we win a natty, it will be worth it, otherwise they'll be a lot of wailing about how monumentously stupid this was come 2023/2024.

at this rate, i expect Acuna to come up in September, and Allard and Soroka to hit AAA this month. i would be setting up for Albies and Acuna to come up April 15th, with Allard and Soroka in AAA with maybe a mid-year callup, but at this point i wouldn't be surprised to see all 4 on the Opening Day roster.

2019 Roster:
SP Folty
SP Newcomb
SP Allard
SP Soroka
SP Wren
RP Sims
RP Minter
C A Jackson
1B FF
2B Albies
SS Swanson
3B Riley
LF D Peterson
CF Inciarte
RF Acuna

hell, that may be the roster by June 2018 at this rate......

Swanson might be somewhere else. Camargo has a better chance at SS then DS. Gohara will be somewhere in the BP also.

[msstate7]

Swanson might be somewhere else. Camargo has a better chance at SS then DS. Gohara will be somewhere in the BP also.

I disagree strongly. Swanson is still a better prospect by far than camargo

[smootness]

doesn't cost additional money. player makes the same salary each year whether they come up now, April 1, or April 15th. difference is the latter will be a Super 2, and will tack on an extra year of team control (year 7) rather than be a FA.

My point was that even if we extend him and still control him in that extra year, we'll have to pay more than we would have had we waited because he would still be in arbitration in that scenario.

We will either lose a year of control or pay more for him earlier. Those are the only two options.

[smootness]

Swanson might be somewhere else. Camargo has a better chance at SS then DS. Gohara will be somewhere in the BP also.

Swanson is still the SS of the future. I have no idea why people are giving up on him.

Camargo is likely a bench bat at best.

[MetEdDawg]

Swanson is still the SS of the future. I have no idea why people are giving up on him.

Camargo is likely a bench bat at best.

So a guy hitting .295 in his first 57 career games is a bench bat at best? Wow. That's a pretty bold statement. I would definitely beg to differ. He may not be all world but he clearly has the ability to be a major leaguer. But to say he's a bench bat at best while he's hitting .300 over 160 ABs seems a bit ridiculous.

[parabrave]

So a guy hitting .295 in his first 57 career games is a bench bat at best? Wow. That's a pretty bold statement. I would definitely beg to differ. He may not be all world but he clearly has the ability to be a major leaguer. But to say he's a bench bat at best while he's hitting .300 over 160 ABs seems a bit ridiculous.

Thank you.

[parabrave]

Camargo might be going back to 3rd since the sean rodriguez experiment is about to burst. But as already seen Camargo is an everyday player. He reminds me of Prado.

[msstate7]

Camargo might be going back to 3rd since the sean rodriguez experiment is about to burst. But as already seen Camargo is an everyday player. He reminds me of Prado.

I would love for him to be prado 2.0. I'm just cautious bc he hasn't hit at all before this season.

A = .643 ops
A+ = .607 ops
A+ = .650 ops
AA = .683 ops

Then this year...
AAA = .853 ops
MLB = .780 ops

Hopefully he's for real.

[smootness]

So a guy hitting .295 in his first 57 career games is a bench bat at best? Wow. That's a pretty bold statement. I would definitely beg to differ. He may not be all world but he clearly has the ability to be a major leaguer. But to say he's a bench bat at best while he's hitting .300 over 160 ABs seems a bit ridiculous.

We have his entire minor league career to look at as well. He hit .258 in A+ 2 years ago with a .650 OPS, and .267 with a .683 OPS in AA last year. His BABIP is still unsustainable at the MLB level this year. His career thus far would suggest he is a bench bat. If he ends up being more than that, that would be phenomenal for us. But it would also be quite a surprise.

[klong-dog]

Camargo is aheck of an athlete. Looks natural and has a cannon throwing across the diamond.

[msstate7]

Camargo is aheck of an athlete. Looks natural and has a cannon throwing across the diamond.

There's no doubt about his arm. I don't like his range at SS though. I'm with smoot... I think he's a bench/utility guy

[dawgs]

So a guy hitting .295 in his first 57 career games is a bench bat at best? Wow. That's a pretty bold statement. I would definitely beg to differ. He may not be all world but he clearly has the ability to be a major leaguer. But to say he's a bench bat at best while he's hitting .300 over 160 ABs seems a bit ridiculous.

Lots of guys have put up numbers for their first month or two that are unsustainable for their skill level. How many guys have hit 15 HR in April and been sent back down by the all star break or never be heard from again? (The chris Shelton)

[MetEdDawg]

Lots of guys have put up numbers for their first month or two that are unsustainable for their skill level. How many guys have hit 15 HR in April and been sent back down by the all star break or never be heard from again? (The chris Shelton)

Yeah but to say he's at best a bench bat this early in the game based off minor league numbers is only part of the equation. No one on here is claiming he's gonna be a world beater. But unless something crazy happens, he's gonna be a guy that plays in a lot of games.

[smootness]

Yeah but to say he's at best a bench bat this early in the game based off minor league numbers is only part of the equation. No one on here is claiming he's gonna be a world beater. But unless something crazy happens, he's gonna be a guy that plays in a lot of games.

I said 'likely,' it's my opinion based on his professional track record. That's what I think he will be. I do think he has a role with the major league team, but I don't see him as a guy who will eventually be starting while we're contending. For a time period, maybe, while other guys are still progressing through the minors. But I think he is a sub-.700 OPS guy with good defense. That is useful, but it's not an average MLB starter.

[dawgs]

Yeah but to say he's at best a bench bat this early in the game based off minor league numbers is only part of the equation. No one on here is claiming he's gonna be a world beater. But unless something crazy happens, he's gonna be a guy that plays in a lot of games.

I'd say those looking at his career numbers in the minors and taking professional talent evaluators' opinions into consideration are probably right more often than someone taking a glance at his first 57 games in the majors without considering the larger picture. That's not saying he won't turn into a Martin prado guy and have a long productive career, it's just that the evidence we have indicates he's more than likely a career utility bench guy.

[sanfordrjones]

I'm glad some of you aren't in charge of personnel decisions for the Braves. Camargo has been hitting at a completely unsustainable BABIP since he got called up. League average BABIP is .300, his BABIP is .364. Even as hot as he's been, his wRC+ is only 103.

Through 145 plate appearances last year, Swanson hit .302/.361/.442 with a wRC+ of 107. Through 178 plate appearances this year, Camargo is hitting .296/.322/.473 with a wRC+ of 103. The argument that Dansby is a bust because he's struggled this season and Camargo is the real deal because he's been hitting so far is a pretty ridiculous one. What happens when Camargo inevitably regresses like Dansby did? What happens when Dansby regresses back upward like he inevitably will? Young players, even top prospects, often struggle. Swarber and Conforto are 2 examples off the top of my head.

The hype got a little out of control for Dansby after his hot start last year, but he's still head and shoulders above Camargo as far as potential. Dansby has the potential to be a solild but probably not elite middle infielder going forward. Camargo's potential is as a super utility guy. There's a lot value in a super utility guy, but he isn't going to be an everyday shortstop. That's not to say he shouldn't be starting at SS right now and that Dansby shouldn't be at Gwinnett. I just wish they had demoted him as soon as they decided he wasn't going to play every day instead of having him sitting on the bench watching for 2 or 3 weeks.

As for service clocks, I think that gets blown out of proportion sometimes. With players like Albies whose carrying tool isn't power, a team-friendly extension beyond team control is usually possible. I don't really want to see Acuna this year, but it's mostly because he is 19 and started the year in High A, not because of the service clock. The possibility of the Braves extending him beyond 6 years for a reasonable price is probable, I would think, if he doesn't end up being a bust. And based on what I saw at Mississippi, he ain't gonna be a bust.

[MetEdDawg]

I'm glad some of you aren't in charge of personnel decisions for the Braves. Camargo has been hitting at a completely unsustainable BABIP since he got called up. League average BABIP is .300, his BABIP is .364. Even as hot as he's been, his wRC+ is only 103.

Through 145 plate appearances last year, Swanson hit .302/.361/.442 with a wRC+ of 107. Through 178 plate appearances this year, Camargo is hitting .296/.322/.473 with a wRC+ of 103. The argument that Dansby is a bust because he's struggled this season and Camargo is the real deal because he's been hitting so far is a pretty ridiculous one. What happens when Camargo inevitably regresses like Dansby did? What happens when Dansby regresses back upward like he inevitably will? Young players, even top prospects, often struggle. Swarber and Conforto are 2 examples off the top of my head.

The hype got a little out of control for Dansby after his hot start last year, but he's still head and shoulders above Camargo as far as potential. Dansby has the potential to be a solild but probably not elite middle infielder going forward. Camargo's potential is as a super utility guy. There's a lot value in a super utility guy, but he isn't going to be an everyday shortstop. That's not to say he shouldn't be starting at SS right now and that Dansby shouldn't be at Gwinnett. I just wish they had demoted him as soon as they decided he wasn't going to play every day instead of having him sitting on the bench watching for 2 or 3 weeks.

As for service clocks, I think that gets blown out of proportion sometimes. With players like Albies whose carrying tool isn't power, a team-friendly extension beyond team control is usually possible. I don't really want to see Acuna this year, but it's mostly because he is 19 and started the year in High A, not because of the service clock. The possibility of the Braves extending him beyond 6 years for a reasonable price is probable, I would think, if he doesn't end up being a bust. And based on what I saw at Mississippi, he ain't gonna be a bust.

Potential is the killer of teams. Results speak. That's why Dansby's high potential ass is in Gwinnett and Camargo's unsustainable BABIP is starting every day. Potential doesn't mean garbage. No one is saying Camargo is future all star best infielder ever. But I don't understand how folks can say Camargo is playing above and that in regression he's gone. What if he regresses 50 points on BABIP? Big drop. Still above league average.

No one us saying Swanson bust Camargo all star. But I'm a results guy. Results say both guys can do things to be players in the big leagues. Potential is the biggest way to allow feelings to get in the way of data and performance.

[msstate7]

Jackie Bradley jr is another example of a highly touted guy that struggled his first full season in '14.

'14 = .198/.265/.266
'15 = .249/.335/.498
'16 = .267/.349/.486
'17 = .260/.334/.434

I expect Swanson's line to be similar... say .280/.340/.430

[sanfordrjones]

But I don't understand how folks can say Camargo is playing above and that in regression he's gone.

People can say that Camargo is playing above his head because he is, just like Dansby did last year when he was BABIPing about .380. There's a reason we pay attention to stuff like that, because they are excellent and proven predictors. Camargo isn't going to stay this hot. It's just not possible.

I have loved watching him hit over his head this year, but I'm also realistic that it's not going to last and, while I think it's the right move to start him at SS for the big club and to have Dansby playing in Gwinnett, it's only the right move for right now until Dansby gets his issues worked out and Camargo regresses. Both of those things are almost assuredly going to happen.

And for the record, I didn't say that he's going to regress to being gone. I said, he'll regress to being a super utility guy, and there's a lot of value in that. There's just more value in being an every day shortstop.


What if he regresses 50 points on BABIP? Big drop. Still above league average.

League average BABIP is .300 and he's BABIPing .364. He'll probably regress a lot more than 50 points. Dansby regressed from .383 last year to .266 this year.

[parabrave]

I'd say those looking at his career numbers in the minors and taking professional talent evaluators' opinions into consideration are probably right more often than someone taking a glance at his first 57 games in the majors without considering the larger picture. That's not saying he won't turn into a Martin prado guy and have a long productive career, it's just that the evidence we have indicates he's more than likely a career utility bench guy.
And you think Swanson is better.

[smootness]

Potential is the killer of teams. Results speak. That's why Dansby's high potential ass is in Gwinnett and Camargo's unsustainable BABIP is starting every day. Potential doesn't mean garbage. No one is saying Camargo is future all star best infielder ever. But I don't understand how folks can say Camargo is playing above and that in regression he's gone. What if he regresses 50 points on BABIP? Big drop. Still above league average.

No one us saying Swanson bust Camargo all star. But I'm a results guy. Results say both guys can do things to be players in the big leagues. Potential is the biggest way to allow feelings to get in the way of data and performance.

I'm talking about results. His minor league results, combined with his unsustainable numbers currently (based on the numbers themselves, not a subjective opinion), tell me he is most likely a bench bat.

And if his BABIP drops 50 points, sure, his BABIP is still above league-average. And guess what happens to his overall numbers? They drop to .254/.283/.420. Do you think a guy with an OBP well below .300 and an OPS just over .700 is a clear everyday MLB player?

This is what we're saying.

[smootness]

League average BABIP is .300 and he's BABIPing .364. He'll probably regress a lot more than 50 points. Dansby regressed from .383 last year to .266 this year.

His minor league track record would suggest Camargo is about a .300 BABIP guy. But a .300 BABIP with a low BB rate, little power, and a not-small K rate equals something not great.

Dansby has less of a track record with which to guess, but looking at his numbers, I would say a BABIP above .300 is possible. But he has a much better BB rate, a similar K rate, and likely more pop. Thus, a better hitter.

[dawgs]

Potential is the killer of teams. Results speak. That's why Dansby's high potential ass is in Gwinnett and Camargo's unsustainable BABIP is starting every day. Potential doesn't mean garbage. No one is saying Camargo is future all star best infielder ever. But I don't understand how folks can say Camargo is playing above and that in regression he's gone. What if he regresses 50 points on BABIP? Big drop. Still above league average.

No one us saying Swanson bust Camargo all star. But I'm a results guy. Results say both guys can do things to be players in the big leagues. Potential is the biggest way to allow feelings to get in the way of data and performance.

Um, we are looking at the data to determine our opinions on Camargo's future though.

[dawgs]

And you think Swanson is better.

Tbh I'm not a swanson fluffer. But I do think he has a brighter future than camargo. Swanson is kind of a boring .270-10-10 type guy that plays pretty solid D at a premium defensive position imo.

[smootness]

Tbh I'm not a swanson fluffer. But I do think he has a brighter future than camargo. Swanson is kind of a boring .270-10-10 type guy that plays pretty solid D at a premium defensive position imo.

I think that's basically his floor. His upside, IMO, is more like .290 with 20 bombs.

[klong-dog]

I don't believe he'll be a 20 hr guy. I could see in the 10 maybe 15 yearly.

[Really Clark?]

Dickey and Johnson are the first on waiver wire.

[smootness]

I don't believe he'll be a 20 hr guy. I could see in the 10 maybe 15 yearly.

He's already a 10+ HR guy in the majors. 9 HR in 133 games. Pretty easy to see him getting to 15, and I think 20 is clearly a possibility.

[msstate7]

Dickey and Johnson are the first on waiver wire.

Dickey is surprising to me. I'd kinda like to have him next season. Hopefully JJ is claimed. Markakis and kemp should be too.

ETA: should've read, Markakis and kemp should be put on waivers too

[sanfordrjones]

I don't have any hope of Kemp's contract getting claimed. I don't really see Markakis getting claimed, either, but it wouldn't shock me like it would if Kemp did. Kakes has to be dealt this month or during the offseason to make room for Acuna. It won't matter how bad Kemp (or Adams) is defensively if Ender and Acuna are in CF and RF.

I'm a little disappointed they gave up on Freeman at 3rd so fast. I don't trust advanced defensive stats like I do the offensive ones, but they don't hate him at 3rd in the small sample size so far. If he could be adequate there, that would open up a ton of lineup flexibility. It's a lot easier to find a good offensive player at 1B than it is at 3B.

[msstate7]

I don't have any hope of Kemp's contract getting claimed. I don't really see Markakis getting claimed, either, but it wouldn't shock me like it would if Kemp did. Kakes has to be dealt this month or during the offseason to make room for Acuna. It won't matter how bad Kemp (or Adams) is defensively if Ender and Acuna are in CF and RF.

I'm a little disappointed they gave up on Freeman at 3rd so fast. I don't trust advanced defensive stats like I do the offensive ones, but they don't hate him at 3rd in the small sample size so far. If he could be adequate there, that would open up a ton of lineup flexibility. It's a lot easier to find a good offensive player at 1B than it is at 3B.

Assuming no one claims Markakis or kemp, we could have a very expensive platoon in LF between them. Maybe not playing every day would help kemp stay healthy

[sanfordrjones]

Surely we could get Peter Angelos to take Markakis off our hands.

[msstate7]

Inciarte
Phillips - 3b
FF
Suzuki
Markakis
Santana - LF
Albies
Camargo
Teheran

Should be interesting. Pretty hilarious we have Suzuki at clean up; he has hit well this year though

[shoeless joe]

Those of y'all clamoring about camargo need to look up a fella named Charles Thomas.

The game is about adjustments. Swanson has struggled in that regard, but as I've said before, if he was picking it at SS he'd still be with the big club. Camargo is a poor mans prado. Good guy to have on the team but if your HAVING to play him things aren't going as well as they should. Whereas prado was an everyday big leaguer.

[MetEdDawg]

That Camargo had 2 more hits tonight. Like I said, dude is a player. Not saying he's a world beater, but he's clearly good enough to be a starter in the majors right now. There are a ton of teams that would die for a utility infielder that hits .300.

Albeis went hitless again. Glad his numbers in the minors were great though. Should tell us a lot about how he will be in the majors....kidding here a little bit, but those of you crushing Camargo aren't using the data in front of your eyes to show you that he's at the very least got the potential to be a starter in this league and on this team.

[msstate7]

That Camargo had 2 more hits tonight. Like I said, dude is a player. Not saying he's a world beater, but he's clearly good enough to be a starter in the majors right now. There are a ton of teams that would die for a utility infielder that hits .300.

Albeis went hitless again. Glad his numbers in the minors were great though. Should tell us a lot about how he will be in the majors....kidding here a little bit, but those of you crushing Camargo aren't using the data in front of your eyes to show you that he's at the very least got the potential to be a starter in this league and on this team.

Remember when Chris Johnson hit .321 in '13 and the braves rewarded him with a good contract? His BABIP was .394. His obp was .292 in '14 and he was in the minors in '15. BABIP is a good stat

[dawgs]

Sometimes BABIP can be flukey high over a full season, but eventually it will catch up to a guy. Some guys obviously tend to have higher BABIP than others based on batted ball velocity, FB/LD/GB rates, etc., but most guys regress closer to the norm. Guys like Gwynn, ichiro, boggs, and Brett (non-power guys that consistently hit well over .300 through their primes) are few and far between.

[smootness]

Sometimes BABIP can be flukey high over a full season, but eventually it will catch up to a guy. Some guys obviously tend to have higher BABIP than others based on batted ball velocity, FB/LD/GB rates, etc., but most guys regress closer to the norm. Guys like Gwynn, ichiro, boggs, and Brett (non-power guys that consistently hit well over .300 through their primes) are few and far between.

Gwynn had a career BABIP of 'just' .341 while his career BA was .338. Why? Because he only K'd 4% of the time. Camargo will strike out a lot more than that with a lower BABIP.

[smootness]

That Camargo had 2 more hits tonight. Like I said, dude is a player. Not saying he's a world beater, but he's clearly good enough to be a starter in the majors right now. There are a ton of teams that would die for a utility infielder that hits .300.

Albeis went hitless again. Glad his numbers in the minors were great though. Should tell us a lot about how he will be in the majors....kidding here a little bit, but those of you crushing Camargo aren't using the data in front of your eyes to show you that he's at the very least got the potential to be a starter in this league and on this team.

Yes, we are. We are using the data of his minor league track record and the numbers behind his major league start. You are just looking at BA over a small sample, which has proven time and time and time again to be unreliable in predicting anything going forward.

Let me guess, when his numbers start to come down, you'll say he's in a slump or that he's not as good as he was to start his career.

[msstate7]

Look at Jake mangum...

'16 - avg = .408, BABIP = .449
'17 - avg = .324, BABIP = .369

'16 was unsustainable bc of his incredible luck on balls in play

[dawgs]

Gwynn had a career BABIP of 'just' .341 while his career BA was .338. Why? Because he only K'd 4% of the time. Camargo will strike out a lot more than that with a lower BABIP.

"Just" .341