Quaoarsking
07-21-2017, 08:05 PM
After hearing rumors on a few different boards I decided to look into whether Ole Miss might have shaved points under Freeze. This is not a very detailed analysis, but an overview to see if the allegations are even plausible. I used the odds found on this website (http://www.oddsshark.com/stats/dbresults/football/ncaaf), which aren't the only set of odds out there, but the ones I was able to find the most easily.
I'll start with a list of all the games they played under Freeze, with the results. This will make it easier if anyone else wants to do an analysis.
Date
H/A
Opponent
Result
Margin
Line
Favored?
Beat spread?
O/U
Total Scored
O/U in Wins
Sep 1, 2012
H
CENTARK
W, 49-27
22
20
YES
YES
--
76
Sep 8, 2012
H
UTEP
W, 28-10
18
8
YES
YES
53.5
38
U
Sep 15, 2012
H
TEXAS
L, 66-31
-35
-10.5
NO
51
97
Sep 22, 2012
@
TULANE
W, 39-0
39
17.5
YES
YES
53
39
U
Sep 29, 2012
@
ALAB
L, 33-14
-19
-31
NO
52.5
47
Oct 6, 2012
H
TEXA&M
L, 30-27
-3
-12.5
NO
64.5
57
Oct 13, 2012
H
AUBRN
W, 41-20
21
4
YES
YES
49
61
O
Oct 27, 2012
@
ARK
W, 30-27
3
-6.5
NO
63
57
U
Nov 3, 2012
@
GEORGI
L, 37-10
-27
-13.5
NO
61.5
47
Nov 10, 2012
H
VANDY
L, 27-26
-1
2.5
YES
50.5
53
Nov 17, 2012
@
LSU
L, 41-35
-6
-18
NO
48.5
76
Nov 24, 2012
H
MIS.ST (http://MIS.ST)
W, 41-24
17
1
YES
YES
54
65
O
Jan 5, 2013
N
PITT
W, 38-17
21
4.5
YES
YES
54
55
O
Aug 29, 2013
@
VANDY
W, 39-35
4
3
YES
YES
52
74
O
Sep 7, 2013
H
SE.MIS
W, 31-13
18
49.5
YES
NO
61
44
U
Sep 14, 2013
@
TEXAS
W, 44-23
21
-1.5
NO
63.5
67
O
Sep 28, 2013
@
ALAB
L, 25-0
-25
-14
NO
54.5
25
Oct 5, 2013
@
AUBRN
L, 30-22
-8
2.5
YES
58
52
Oct 12, 2013
H
TEXA&M
L, 41-38
-3
-7
NO
77.5
79
Oct 19, 2013
H
LSU
W, 27-24
3
-9.5
NO
60
51
U
Oct 26, 2013
H
IDAHO
W, 59-14
45
41.5
YES
YES
58.5
73
O
Nov 9, 2013
H
ARK
W, 34-24
10
17
YES
NO
54.5
58
O
Nov 16, 2013
H
TROY
W, 51-21
30
28
YES
YES
69
72
O
Nov 23, 2013
H
MIZZOU
L, 24-10
-14
-1.5
NO
58.5
34
Nov 28, 2013
@
MIS.ST (http://MIS.ST)
L, 17-10
-7
3.5
YES
53.5
27
Dec 30, 2013
N
GATECH
W, 25-17
8
3
YES
YES
55
42
U
Aug 28, 2014
N
BOISE
W, 35-13
22
9.5
YES
YES
52
48
U
Sep 6, 2014
@
VANDY
W, 41-3
38
18
YES
YES
49.5
44
U
Sep 13, 2014
H
UL.LAF
W, 56-15
41
26
YES
YES
59
71
O
Sep 27, 2014
H
MEMPHS
W, 24-3
21
20
YES
YES
58.5
27
U
Oct 4, 2014
H
ALAB
W, 23-17
6
-4.5
NO
53
40
U
Oct 11, 2014
@
TEXA&M
W, 35-20
15
-2.5
NO
64
55
U
Oct 18, 2014
H
TENN
W, 34-3
31
15.5
YES
YES
45.5
37
U
Oct 25, 2014
@
LSU
L, 10-7
-3
3.5
YES
45
17
Nov 1, 2014
H
AUBRN
L, 35-31
-4
1
YES
54
66
Nov 8, 2014
H
PRESBYT
W, 48-0
48
52
YES
NO
--
48
Nov 22, 2014
@
ARK
L, 30-0
-30
3
YES
46
30
Nov 29, 2014
H
MIS.ST (http://MIS.ST)
W, 31-17
14
-2.5
NO
52.5
48
U
Dec 31, 2014
N
TCU
L, 42-3
-39
-3
NO
55
45
Sep 5, 2015
H
TN.MAR
W, 76-3
73
41
YES
YES
54
79
O
Sep 12, 2015
H
FRESNO
W, 73-21
52
33
YES
YES
55.5
94
O
Sep 19, 2015
@
ALAB
W, 43-37
6
-9
NO
52.5
80
O
Sep 26, 2015
H
VANDY
W, 27-16
11
27
YES
NO
53
43
U
Oct 3, 2015
@
FLA
L, 38-10
-28
7
YES
50.5
48
Oct 10, 2015
H
NMEXST
W, 52-3
49
46
YES
YES
69.5
55
U
Oct 17, 2015
@
MEMPHS
L, 37-24
-13
10
YES
72
61
Oct 24, 2015
H
TEXA&M
W, 23-3
20
6.5
YES
YES
66.5
26
U
Oct 31, 2015
@
AUBRN
W, 27-19
8
8
YES
YES
56
46
U
Nov 7, 2015
H
ARK
L, 53-52
-1
7.5
YES
54.5
105
Nov 21, 2015
H
LSU
W, 38-17
21
7
YES
YES
58
55
U
Nov 28, 2015
@
MIS.ST (http://MIS.ST)
W, 38-27
11
2
YES
YES
65.5
65
U
Jan 1, 2016
N
OKLAST
W, 48-20
28
7.5
YES
YES
70.5
68
U
Sep 5, 2016
@
FLAST
L, 45-34
-11
-4.5
NO
58
79
Sep 10, 2016
H
WOFFOR
W, 38-13
25
43
YES
NO
56.5
51
U
Sep 17, 2016
H
ALAB
L, 48-43
-5
-10
NO
53
91
Sep 24, 2016
H
GEORGI
W, 45-14
31
7
YES
YES
61.5
59
U
Oct 1, 2016
H
MEMPHS
W, 48-28
20
15.5
YES
YES
71.5
76
O
Oct 15, 2016
@
ARK
L, 34-30
-4
10
YES
65
64
Oct 22, 2016
@
LSU
L, 38-21
-17
-8.5
NO
60
59
Oct 29, 2016
H
AUBRN
L, 40-29
-11
-4.5
NO
64
69
Nov 5, 2016
H
GASOU
W, 37-27
10
28
YES
NO
63
64
O
Nov 12, 2016
@
TEXA&M
W, 29-28
1
-7
NO
62.5
57
U
Nov 19, 2016
@
VANDY
L, 38-17
-21
9.5
YES
50.5
55
Nov 26, 2016
H
MIS.ST (http://MIS.ST)
L, 55-20
-35
10
YES
69
75
I'll start with a list of all the games they played under Freeze, with the results. This will make it easier if anyone else wants to do an analysis.
Date
H/A
Opponent
Result
Margin
Line
Favored?
Beat spread?
O/U
Total Scored
O/U in Wins
Sep 1, 2012
H
CENTARK
W, 49-27
22
20
YES
YES
--
76
Sep 8, 2012
H
UTEP
W, 28-10
18
8
YES
YES
53.5
38
U
Sep 15, 2012
H
TEXAS
L, 66-31
-35
-10.5
NO
51
97
Sep 22, 2012
@
TULANE
W, 39-0
39
17.5
YES
YES
53
39
U
Sep 29, 2012
@
ALAB
L, 33-14
-19
-31
NO
52.5
47
Oct 6, 2012
H
TEXA&M
L, 30-27
-3
-12.5
NO
64.5
57
Oct 13, 2012
H
AUBRN
W, 41-20
21
4
YES
YES
49
61
O
Oct 27, 2012
@
ARK
W, 30-27
3
-6.5
NO
63
57
U
Nov 3, 2012
@
GEORGI
L, 37-10
-27
-13.5
NO
61.5
47
Nov 10, 2012
H
VANDY
L, 27-26
-1
2.5
YES
50.5
53
Nov 17, 2012
@
LSU
L, 41-35
-6
-18
NO
48.5
76
Nov 24, 2012
H
MIS.ST (http://MIS.ST)
W, 41-24
17
1
YES
YES
54
65
O
Jan 5, 2013
N
PITT
W, 38-17
21
4.5
YES
YES
54
55
O
Aug 29, 2013
@
VANDY
W, 39-35
4
3
YES
YES
52
74
O
Sep 7, 2013
H
SE.MIS
W, 31-13
18
49.5
YES
NO
61
44
U
Sep 14, 2013
@
TEXAS
W, 44-23
21
-1.5
NO
63.5
67
O
Sep 28, 2013
@
ALAB
L, 25-0
-25
-14
NO
54.5
25
Oct 5, 2013
@
AUBRN
L, 30-22
-8
2.5
YES
58
52
Oct 12, 2013
H
TEXA&M
L, 41-38
-3
-7
NO
77.5
79
Oct 19, 2013
H
LSU
W, 27-24
3
-9.5
NO
60
51
U
Oct 26, 2013
H
IDAHO
W, 59-14
45
41.5
YES
YES
58.5
73
O
Nov 9, 2013
H
ARK
W, 34-24
10
17
YES
NO
54.5
58
O
Nov 16, 2013
H
TROY
W, 51-21
30
28
YES
YES
69
72
O
Nov 23, 2013
H
MIZZOU
L, 24-10
-14
-1.5
NO
58.5
34
Nov 28, 2013
@
MIS.ST (http://MIS.ST)
L, 17-10
-7
3.5
YES
53.5
27
Dec 30, 2013
N
GATECH
W, 25-17
8
3
YES
YES
55
42
U
Aug 28, 2014
N
BOISE
W, 35-13
22
9.5
YES
YES
52
48
U
Sep 6, 2014
@
VANDY
W, 41-3
38
18
YES
YES
49.5
44
U
Sep 13, 2014
H
UL.LAF
W, 56-15
41
26
YES
YES
59
71
O
Sep 27, 2014
H
MEMPHS
W, 24-3
21
20
YES
YES
58.5
27
U
Oct 4, 2014
H
ALAB
W, 23-17
6
-4.5
NO
53
40
U
Oct 11, 2014
@
TEXA&M
W, 35-20
15
-2.5
NO
64
55
U
Oct 18, 2014
H
TENN
W, 34-3
31
15.5
YES
YES
45.5
37
U
Oct 25, 2014
@
LSU
L, 10-7
-3
3.5
YES
45
17
Nov 1, 2014
H
AUBRN
L, 35-31
-4
1
YES
54
66
Nov 8, 2014
H
PRESBYT
W, 48-0
48
52
YES
NO
--
48
Nov 22, 2014
@
ARK
L, 30-0
-30
3
YES
46
30
Nov 29, 2014
H
MIS.ST (http://MIS.ST)
W, 31-17
14
-2.5
NO
52.5
48
U
Dec 31, 2014
N
TCU
L, 42-3
-39
-3
NO
55
45
Sep 5, 2015
H
TN.MAR
W, 76-3
73
41
YES
YES
54
79
O
Sep 12, 2015
H
FRESNO
W, 73-21
52
33
YES
YES
55.5
94
O
Sep 19, 2015
@
ALAB
W, 43-37
6
-9
NO
52.5
80
O
Sep 26, 2015
H
VANDY
W, 27-16
11
27
YES
NO
53
43
U
Oct 3, 2015
@
FLA
L, 38-10
-28
7
YES
50.5
48
Oct 10, 2015
H
NMEXST
W, 52-3
49
46
YES
YES
69.5
55
U
Oct 17, 2015
@
MEMPHS
L, 37-24
-13
10
YES
72
61
Oct 24, 2015
H
TEXA&M
W, 23-3
20
6.5
YES
YES
66.5
26
U
Oct 31, 2015
@
AUBRN
W, 27-19
8
8
YES
YES
56
46
U
Nov 7, 2015
H
ARK
L, 53-52
-1
7.5
YES
54.5
105
Nov 21, 2015
H
LSU
W, 38-17
21
7
YES
YES
58
55
U
Nov 28, 2015
@
MIS.ST (http://MIS.ST)
W, 38-27
11
2
YES
YES
65.5
65
U
Jan 1, 2016
N
OKLAST
W, 48-20
28
7.5
YES
YES
70.5
68
U
Sep 5, 2016
@
FLAST
L, 45-34
-11
-4.5
NO
58
79
Sep 10, 2016
H
WOFFOR
W, 38-13
25
43
YES
NO
56.5
51
U
Sep 17, 2016
H
ALAB
L, 48-43
-5
-10
NO
53
91
Sep 24, 2016
H
GEORGI
W, 45-14
31
7
YES
YES
61.5
59
U
Oct 1, 2016
H
MEMPHS
W, 48-28
20
15.5
YES
YES
71.5
76
O
Oct 15, 2016
@
ARK
L, 34-30
-4
10
YES
65
64
Oct 22, 2016
@
LSU
L, 38-21
-17
-8.5
NO
60
59
Oct 29, 2016
H
AUBRN
L, 40-29
-11
-4.5
NO
64
69
Nov 5, 2016
H
GASOU
W, 37-27
10
28
YES
NO
63
64
O
Nov 12, 2016
@
TEXA&M
W, 29-28
1
-7
NO
62.5
57
U
Nov 19, 2016
@
VANDY
L, 38-17
-21
9.5
YES
50.5
55
Nov 26, 2016
H
MIS.ST (http://MIS.ST)
L, 55-20
-35
10
YES
69
75