Guess the NCAA Penalties:

[hailstatetakeover]

Haven't seen one of these threads in awhile, and with the recent news and upcoming COI hearing. I would like to what you guys think:
1. Bowl Ban for the (2017,2018,2019) Seasons
2. 30 scholarships over 3 years
3. 5 Year Show Cause for Danny Hugh
4. 5 Year Probation

[Indndawg]

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--BE1Ox1yS--/c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/196xdv07pfm36jpg.jpg

[hailstatetakeover]

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--BE1Ox1yS--/c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/196xdv07pfm36jpg.jpg

Accurate Representation, after the Hammer, comes down in Oxxxfordddddd.

[Reason2succeed]

Haven't seen one of these threads in awhile, and with the recent news and upcoming COI hearing. I would like to what you guys think:
1. Bowl Ban for the (2017,2018,2019) Seasons - OVER
2. 30 scholarships over 3 years - OVER
3. 5 Year Show Cause for Danny Hugh - OVER
4. 5 Year Probation - EXACTLY RIGHT


Personally I'm not ruling out a DP or something close to it based on the penalty matrix and how it would add up if penalties are assessed cumulatively. Either way it will be catastrophic.

[Apoplectic]

Has anyone tried to apply the matrix? What does it say?

[hailstatetakeover]

Personally I'm not ruling out a DP or something close to it based on the penalty matrix and how it would add up if penalties are assessed cumulatively. Either way it will be catastrophic.
Yea, what does the new matrix contain, and how could it affect this case?

[thf24]

Has anyone tried to apply the matrix? What does it say?

Pretty sure someone scratched it out a few months ago; can't remember the exact numbers but it's effectively worse than the death penalty.

[hailstatetakeover]

http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/news/violator-beware-penalties-new-enforcement-structure-pack-punch
VIOLATORS BEWARE.... lol that's a strong Title

[Pollodawg]

30 over 3
3 year bowl ban.
Show cause for Hugh.

[hailstatetakeover]

Has anyone tried to apply the matrix? What does it say?

"The matrix lists a range of expected outcomes in various penalty categories for Level I and II cases that are processed normally (in the matrix, those are called “standard”). Those ranges can change, though, if there are mitigating or aggravating circumstances. In the postseason ban category, for example, the length of the ban can go from one to two years to two to four years if there are aggravating circumstances. Conversely, the range can be reduced to zero with mitigating factors." Directly from the NCAA website, so they could have a Four Year Bowl Ban.

[Indndawg]

Has anyone tried to apply the matrix? What does it say?


Mississippi would be anally raped by numerous construction tools w/out the use of lubricants, then skillfully and slowly filleted by the NCAA while being dipped in a large vat of sulfuric acid...then killed

[Ari Gold]

It's not enough whatever it is for me. Including death penalty .

If it's
28+ scholarships
2 year + bowl ban
Over 4 years.
It will be some rough years in the Grove for the next decade.

My guess :
30 over 4
With 2 year bowl ban
Multiple show cause for ex coaches ( worse being Barney) and Freeze gets hit with a 3 year show.
Bjork also either fired or steps down
Matt Luke finishes the season if it goes down this year
Tommy Tubberville ( which I said last year) is the next coach.
Reason why :
Tubs quit on his previous teams (tech and Cincy) he doesn't give a shit about anyone but himself and a paycheck. No one else is going to hire this guy . Plus he knows the culture there .

[Liverpooldawg]

Haven't seen one of these threads in awhile, and with the recent news and upcoming COI hearing. I would like to what you guys think:
1. Bowl Ban for the (2017,2018,2019) Seasons
2. 30 scholarships over 3 years
3. 5 Year Show Cause for Danny Hugh
4. 5 Year Probation

If the NCAA sticks with their matrix it will be much worse than that. If they don't stick with their matrix then the NCAA might as well fold.

[Reason2succeed]

Big4Dawg posted this a while back

2837

[Dawgology]

Has anyone tried to apply the matrix? What does it say?

Someone did one with them changing all to level 2 violations and fewest number of scholly's lost based on that was still in the mid 20's based on the new matrix and leaving out the old Nutt stuff. It's going to be bad for them.

[Indndawg]

It would be easier on the NCAA just to give them a 3 year death penalty.
I guess when they made the matrices, they didn't any school would cheat THIS bad.

[Dawgology]

I think it will be something like:

32 over 4 (including those already self imposed)
2 year bowl ban
5 year probation
Several show causes (including freeze)

Eda: lots of disassociated boosters
Lots of money returned and/or forfeited
Vacation of bowl wins and about 4 years worth of wins

[thf24]

Only looking at scholarships and postseason ban, and assuming all the level 1's were standard and the lower end of the range in the matrix was applied, they'd lose 72 scholarships with a 15 year post-season ban.

[Martianlander]

Haven't seen one of these threads in awhile, and with the recent news and upcoming COI hearing. I would like to what you guys think:
1. Bowl Ban for the (2017,2018,2019) Seasons
2. 30 scholarships over 3 years
3. 5 Year Show Cause for Danny Hugh
4. 5 Year Probation

By the matrix, maybe more than this, and the worst of all-banning cold chicken fingers and bow ties in the grove.

[Dawgology]

Only looking at scholarships and postseason ban, and assuming all the level 1's were standard and the lower end of the range in the matrix was applied, they'd lose 72 scholarships with a 15 year post-season ban.

That's all??? Yancy was right! Exemplary cooperation gets them off light!

[Dawgology]

By the matrix, maybe more than this, and the worst of all-banning cold chicken fingers and bow ties in the grove.

Mandatory 200% price increase on all ascot purchases in Oxford.

[Jack Lambert]

Mississippi would be anally raped by numerous construction tools w/out the use of lubricants, then skillfully and slowly filleted by the NCAA while being dipped in a large vat of sulfuric acid...then killed

I suspect they will know at the time what penalties they want to apply and will adjust the number of violations to make it fit the matrix.

[Reason2succeed]

DeviousDawg34 (who has done an excellent job at analysis in my opinion) posted this

DD34's sanction predictions: Edition III
Quote Originally Posted by DeviousDawg34 View Post
Here is a post I made in August...

Revised Ole Miss sanctions prediction: Maroon Friday Edition
Hey Rebs, remember about a month ago when I made a prediction on your future sanctions? You all laughed and said "DD34 and the rest of the guys over on ED are delusional. 15 over 3 at the most and Freeze is fine". Well, if you don't remember it, even though I know you do, here is the original post below. Remember, this is only based on what is on the original NOA that you received in late January.

Originally Posted by DeviousDawg
When you really look into the NOA and compare it to previous NCAA investigations, Ole Miss's self imposed sanctions are a joke. The actual sanctions should at least double the self imposed sanctions.

When looking through the NOA, it really breaks into 4 parts, the Tunsil stuff (allegations 1-4), the Kiffin stuff (allegations 5-7), the Walter Hughes stuff (allegation 8) and the ACT stuff (allegations 10-13). Allegation 9 was a BS level III violation involving recruiting videos. The fairest way to estimate OM's sanctions would be to treat each of the 4 parts as separate investigations and add the results from each.

Part 1: Tunsil

We can compare Tunsil's allegations to our own with Redmond. We gave Redmond a $2500 discount on a vehicle. We got 4 schollies over 2 years and 2 year probation, Mirando received a 1 year show cause. It should also be considered that we self reported all of this and cooperated fully with the NCAA who accepted our self imposed sanctions

Ole Miss is accused of giving Tunsil $7,495 worth of free car loans in allegation #1. Allegation #2 is really just an extension of #1, it says that after Tunsil was caught using free cars, he did it again, and Ole Miss failed to monitor whether he was continuing to do it. This isn't good for them because while #2 is only a level II violation, it will most certainly make #1 become an aggravated Level I violation. Allegation #3 is a booster giving Miller $800. #4 involves free lodging and stuff for Tunsil's family worth $2,253. So that's a total of $10,548 worth of inducements to Tunsil and fam as well as a failure to monitor.

When compared to our 4 schollies and 2 years of probation, OM's allegations 1-4 should be worth at least double but probably triple what we got for Redmond's stuff.

Conservative guess for allegations 1-4:

8-12 scholarships
3 years probation
1 year bowl ban


Part 2: Kiffin

These allegations aren't too serious. There were 2 level III allegations, one for talking to a recruit during spring evaluation period, one for letting a recruit stay at his house. There was also one level II allegation which involved Kiffin setting up lodging, transportation and meals for family friends of a recruit, the monetary total of the inducements was worth $1027.

Conservative guess for allegation 5-7:

1-2 scholarships
possible 1 year show cause for Kiffin but most likely a suspension of some sort.


Part 3: Walter Hughes

This one could go so many different ways. There are 16 sub violations in the Level I allegation #8. All involve Walter Hughes and recruiting inducements. Three assistant coaches (Harris, Kiffin, and Matt Luke) and Hugh Freeze are listed in this allegation. All are said to have been contacted by Hughes while knowingly committing NCAA recruiting violations. So throw ignorance on OM's part of the window for this violation, which is never good.

The total monetary value for allegation #8 was $2,250. It involved 4 current coaches, 3 recruits and one booster. If we got 4 scholarships for $2,500 worth of inducements to Redmond, involving 1 coach, 1 recruit and 1 booster with exemplary cooperation on our part, then you would have to put the lowest amount of scholarships docked for this allegation at 4.

Conservative guess for allegation 8:

4-8 scholarships
1-2 years probation
2 year show cause for Maurice Harris


Part 4: ACT scandal

Let's compare this to ULL's case, they are actually very similar. ULL had 4 level I violations, so did OM. The first one for each schools was about fixing ACT scores. ULL's involved one coach and 6 recruits. OM's involved 3 coaches and 3 recruits, one of which is still on staff in Derrick Nix, who put the recruits families in contact with Saunders and the Crager(sp?) lady to receive free lodging, transportation and meals, similar to Mirando's case. The second allegations for both schools involved improper inducements to recruits. ULL's was worth $6,500 while OM's was worth $1650. The last 2 allegations for both schools involved coaches lying to the NCAA during investigations, just Saunders for ULL; Saunders and Vaughn for OM.

The NCAA stated that ULL received the lowest possible penalties for their violations(11 scholarships over 3 years and 2 years of probation) because the University was unaware of Saunders actions and acted swiftly to fire him and self report as well as cooperate fully with the NCAA. Well, Ole Miss can't really say the same because Nix is STILL ON STAFF. There's a reason Ole Miss is fighting Nix's involvement, but they aren't going to win it. All of this leads me to believe that, if ULL received the lowest possible penalties that OM would at least have to get 11 schollies for the ACT allegations.

Conservative guess for allegations 10-13:

11-14 scholarships
1-2 year show cause for Nix
8 year show cause for Vaughn
1 year bowl ban

Adding all 4 parts together for a final estimate:

24-36 scholarships
4 years of probation
2 year bowl ban
Show Causes for: Nix and Harris
Suspensions for: Kiffin, Freeze, and Matt Luke

Seems harsh, but when you really break it down into it's components I think that is a well educated and fair estimate.


Now that your memory has been jogged, I will add to my predictions. These predictions are based on what the sanctions will look like after the addendum to the NOA. The predictions are based off facts that I am hearing on who is now talking after receiving immunity. I can tell you one thing, some of the things that will come out over the next 6 months will shake the network down to its very core..... I am writing this with the hopes that you will accept this so that you are not Blindsided when the facts come out.

Original Sanctions:
24-36 scholarships
4 years of probation
2 year bowl ban
Show Causes for: Nix and Harris
Suspensions for: Kiffin, Freeze, and Matt Luke


Revised Sanctions with the addendum in mind:
30-40 scholarships
5 years of probation
2-3 year bowl ban
2-5 year Show Causes for: Derrick Nix, Maurice Harris, and Hugh Freeze
Suspensions for: Chris Kiffin and Matt Luke
Lack of Institutional Control

I keep hearing Ole Miss fans saying, "well, no one has been fired so we are obviously OK". Let's talk about this. Remember our Redmond deal? What did we do? We immediately fired Angelo Mirando, this was for a violation only worth 4 scholarships. Remember the Bo Davis/Alabama situation early in the Summer? Nick Saban found out that Bo Davis was visiting recruits during a no contact period, what did Saban do? Immediately fire Bo Davis. Actually, that exact violation is on OM's original NOA, but no one has been fired. Why has no one been fired at OM? Because every single one of your coaches is guilty, they know it and Freeze knows it. If Freeze fired a coach for something that he told the assistant coach to do, you can bet your ass that that coach would take advantage of the immunity deal and take down Freeze and Ole Miss on a level that hasn't been seen since SMU. Let that sink in.

Enjoy your last supper of a season this year, but just remember, no matter how this season turns out for y'all, it will always have a big ole asterisk next to it. At this point the only question is whether the NCAA chooses death row or life in prison. Pick your poison Rebels, you asked for it, and you will get everything you deserve.

Happy Maroon Friday to all!

Now that the addendum is out, I can more accurately revise my original predictions, note that I did predict the Lack of Institutional Control back in August...

PART 5: THE ADDENDUM

Part 5(a): Lack of Institutional Control:

Looking at previous lack of institutional control cases:

Ole Miss 1994: included improper benefits from staff members and boosters. 24 scholarships over 2 years.
Kentucky 2002: included failure to monitor by head coach, improper recruiting by boosters and coaches. 19 scholarships over 3 years and a one year bowl ban.
Alabama 2002: included impermissible recruiting and extra benefits. 21 scholarships over 3 years and 2 year bowl ban.

Conservative guess for just the LOIC charge:

10-12 scholarships
1 year bowl ban


Part 5(b): Impermissible benefit's allegations: (includes addendum allegations 2, 4, 5, 7)

-Allegation #2- former staff member providing 2 prospective student athletes with $2,272 in lodging/transportation and $235 in meals.
-Allegation #4- Barney initiated and facilitated two boosters having impermissible contact with two boosters having impermissible contact with Prospective student athlete B. The value of the allegation of the alleged inducements was in between $13,000-$15,600.
-Allegation #5- two different former coaches arranged for 3 different Prospective Student Athletes to receive merchandise from a booster owned business over a 3 year span. The recruiting inducements had an alleged value of $2,800.
-Allegation #7- A booster provided Prospective Student Athlete B with food and drinks. The recruiting inducements had an alleged value between $200-$600.

In total:

$18,507-$21,507 in recruiting inducements
involves 2 different former coaches, 4 different recruits, 2 boosters, and 1 booster owned business

Very conservative guess for part 5(b):

8-12 scholarships
1 year bowl ban


Part 5(c): Coaching allegations: (includes addendum allegations 3 and 8)

-Allegation #3: Barney violated the NCAA principles of ethical conduct when he knowingly committed recruiting violations and knowingly provided false or misleading info to the NCAA.
-Allegation #8: Freeze violated head coach responsibility legislation.

These allegations will be more focused on show causes more than anything.

Looking at OM's women's basketball and track cases:

-The former OM Women's head basketball coach was charged with head coach responsibility legislation and received a 2 year show cause.
-The former OM Women's basketball coach was charged with violation of ethical conduct and received a 6 year show cause
-The former OM Women's director of basketball operations was charged with violation of ethical conduct and received a 6 year show cause.
-The former OM head track coach was charged with head coach responsibility legislation and received a 1 year show cause.
-The women's basketball team was docked 2 scholarships over 1 year, which is equal to about 11 scholarships in football, but this also takes into account the impermissible recruiting.

Both the head basketball and track coach got their respective show causes based off two assistant coaches involved in impermissible recruiting and/or violation of ethical conduct. Freeze will have at least 4 different assistant coaches, and will be punished more harshly than the women's basketball coach and track coach.

Conservative guess for part 5(c):

4-6 scholarships
6-10 year show cause for Barney
2-5 year show cause for Freeze




Original NOA Santion Estimation(7/21/16):

24-36 scholarships
4 years of probation
2 year bowl ban
Show Causes for: Nix and Harris
Suspensions for: Kiffin, Freeze, and Matt Luke

Original Revised NOA Sanction Estimation with future addendum in mind(8/26/16):

30-40 scholarships
5 years of probation
2-3 year bowl ban
2-5 year Show Causes for: Derrick Nix, Maurice Harris, and Hugh Freeze
Suspensions for: Chris Kiffin and Matt Luke
Lack of Institutional Control

Addendum allegations only Sanction Estimation(2/24/17):

22-30 scholarships
2 year bowl ban
6-10 year show cause for Barney
2-5 year show cause for Freeze

Final Revised NOA Sanction Estimation including actual addendum(2/24/17):

46-66 scholarships
5-6 years of probation
2-3 year bowl ban
2-10 year show causes for: Derrick Nix, Maurice Harris, Hugh Freeze and Barney Farrar
Suspensions for: Chris Kiffin and Matt Luke
Lack of Institutional Control(CONFIRMED)

Happy Maroon Friday to all!
Last edited by DeviousDawg34; 02-24-2017 at 11:15 AM.

[starkvegasdawg]

40 over 4
Additional 1-2 year bowl ban
8 year show cause for Freeze
Additional show causes for other coaches
Vacated wins.

[Homedawg]

Part of this took place prior to the new matrix so it's hard to say how they marry those two together. 30-35 scholarships. 2/3 year bowl ban. Chf-1 year show cause. Barney 10 year show cause.

[TrapGame]

40 over 4
Additional 1-2 year bowl ban
8 year show cause for Freeze
Additional show causes for other coaches
Vacated wins.

I'm going with this as well.

With about a 15% for a 2 year death penalty instead. It will be the NCAA equivalent of a hard reboot on your computer.

[Lord McBuckethead]

I am going with the NCAA will **** them hard.
There I fixed it for you.

[Political Hack]

~35-40 scholarships over 4-5 years.
4-5 years probation.
3 year bowl ban.
Voided wins from 2013-2016.
Bowl revenue paid back from 2013-2016.
No incoming bowl revenue from 2016-2019.
~5 year show cause for Freeze.
Multiple assistants with show causes.
Possible show cause for Bjork, if they don't preemptively fire him.
And a muddy, empty grove until 2024.

[PassInterference]

An aggravating factor is cheating while under investigation. Ole Miss admitted to that aggravated factor in their NOA response and hostage video.

[DogsofAnarchy]

Haven't seen one of these threads in awhile, and with the recent news and upcoming COI hearing. I would like to what you guys think:
1. Bowl Ban for the (2017,2018,2019) Seasons
2. 30 scholarships over 3 years
3. 5 Year Show Cause for Danny Hugh
4. 5 Year Probation

It will be more than 30 over 3.

[MSUDAWGFAN]

My guess is
1) 4 year total bowl ban
2) 40-45 scholarship reduction over 4 or 5 years
3) 10 year show cause for Hey Hugh with others receiving show causes
4) Every win that happened under Hey Hugh will be forfeited
5) 8 year probation

[TrapGame]

I am going with the NCAA will accept penalties already put forth by UM. Everyone goes about their business moving forward. I will not believe they will suffer, until it actually happens.

With the results being completely 17 the matrix they came up with and turning college football into Mad Max Fury Road with recruiting?

http://i.imgur.com/jjJNgSY.gif

[Mimi's Babies]

Personally I'm not ruling out a DP or something close to it based on the penalty matrix and how it would add up if penalties are assessed cumulatively. Either way it will be catastrophic.


DeviousDawg34 (who has done an excellent job at analysis in my opinion) posted this

DD34's sanction predictions: Edition III
Quote Originally Posted by DeviousDawg34 View Post
Here is a post I made in August...

Revised Ole Miss sanctions prediction: Maroon Friday Edition
Hey Rebs, remember about a month ago when I made a prediction on your future sanctions? You all laughed and said "DD34 and the rest of the guys over on ED are delusional. 15 over 3 at the most and Freeze is fine". Well, if you don't remember it, even though I know you do, here is the original post below. Remember, this is only based on what is on the original NOA that you received in late January.

Originally Posted by DeviousDawg
When you really look into the NOA and compare it to previous NCAA investigations, Ole Miss's self imposed sanctions are a joke. The actual sanctions should at least double the self imposed sanctions.

When looking through the NOA, it really breaks into 4 parts, the Tunsil stuff (allegations 1-4), the Kiffin stuff (allegations 5-7), the Walter Hughes stuff (allegation 8) and the ACT stuff (allegations 10-13). Allegation 9 was a BS level III violation involving recruiting videos. The fairest way to estimate OM's sanctions would be to treat each of the 4 parts as separate investigations and add the results from each.

Part 1: Tunsil

We can compare Tunsil's allegations to our own with Redmond. We gave Redmond a $2500 discount on a vehicle. We got 4 schollies over 2 years and 2 year probation, Mirando received a 1 year show cause. It should also be considered that we self reported all of this and cooperated fully with the NCAA who accepted our self imposed sanctions

Ole Miss is accused of giving Tunsil $7,495 worth of free car loans in allegation #1. Allegation #2 is really just an extension of #1, it says that after Tunsil was caught using free cars, he did it again, and Ole Miss failed to monitor whether he was continuing to do it. This isn't good for them because while #2 is only a level II violation, it will most certainly make #1 become an aggravated Level I violation. Allegation #3 is a booster giving Miller $800. #4 involves free lodging and stuff for Tunsil's family worth $2,253. So that's a total of $10,548 worth of inducements to Tunsil and fam as well as a failure to monitor.

When compared to our 4 schollies and 2 years of probation, OM's allegations 1-4 should be worth at least double but probably triple what we got for Redmond's stuff.

Conservative guess for allegations 1-4:

8-12 scholarships
3 years probation
1 year bowl ban


Part 2: Kiffin

These allegations aren't too serious. There were 2 level III allegations, one for talking to a recruit during spring evaluation period, one for letting a recruit stay at his house. There was also one level II allegation which involved Kiffin setting up lodging, transportation and meals for family friends of a recruit, the monetary total of the inducements was worth $1027.

Conservative guess for allegation 5-7:

1-2 scholarships
possible 1 year show cause for Kiffin but most likely a suspension of some sort.


Part 3: Walter Hughes

This one could go so many different ways. There are 16 sub violations in the Level I allegation #8. All involve Walter Hughes and recruiting inducements. Three assistant coaches (Harris, Kiffin, and Matt Luke) and Hugh Freeze are listed in this allegation. All are said to have been contacted by Hughes while knowingly committing NCAA recruiting violations. So throw ignorance on OM's part of the window for this violation, which is never good.

The total monetary value for allegation #8 was $2,250. It involved 4 current coaches, 3 recruits and one booster. If we got 4 scholarships for $2,500 worth of inducements to Redmond, involving 1 coach, 1 recruit and 1 booster with exemplary cooperation on our part, then you would have to put the lowest amount of scholarships docked for this allegation at 4.

Conservative guess for allegation 8:

4-8 scholarships
1-2 years probation
2 year show cause for Maurice Harris


Part 4: ACT scandal

Let's compare this to ULL's case, they are actually very similar. ULL had 4 level I violations, so did OM. The first one for each schools was about fixing ACT scores. ULL's involved one coach and 6 recruits. OM's involved 3 coaches and 3 recruits, one of which is still on staff in Derrick Nix, who put the recruits families in contact with Saunders and the Crager(sp?) lady to receive free lodging, transportation and meals, similar to Mirando's case. The second allegations for both schools involved improper inducements to recruits. ULL's was worth $6,500 while OM's was worth $1650. The last 2 allegations for both schools involved coaches lying to the NCAA during investigations, just Saunders for ULL; Saunders and Vaughn for OM.

The NCAA stated that ULL received the lowest possible penalties for their violations(11 scholarships over 3 years and 2 years of probation) because the University was unaware of Saunders actions and acted swiftly to fire him and self report as well as cooperate fully with the NCAA. Well, Ole Miss can't really say the same because Nix is STILL ON STAFF. There's a reason Ole Miss is fighting Nix's involvement, but they aren't going to win it. All of this leads me to believe that, if ULL received the lowest possible penalties that OM would at least have to get 11 schollies for the ACT allegations.

Conservative guess for allegations 10-13:

11-14 scholarships
1-2 year show cause for Nix
8 year show cause for Vaughn
1 year bowl ban

Adding all 4 parts together for a final estimate:

24-36 scholarships
4 years of probation
2 year bowl ban
Show Causes for: Nix and Harris
Suspensions for: Kiffin, Freeze, and Matt Luke

Seems harsh, but when you really break it down into it's components I think that is a well educated and fair estimate.


Now that your memory has been jogged, I will add to my predictions. These predictions are based on what the sanctions will look like after the addendum to the NOA. The predictions are based off facts that I am hearing on who is now talking after receiving immunity. I can tell you one thing, some of the things that will come out over the next 6 months will shake the network down to its very core..... I am writing this with the hopes that you will accept this so that you are not Blindsided when the facts come out.

Original Sanctions:
24-36 scholarships
4 years of probation
2 year bowl ban
Show Causes for: Nix and Harris
Suspensions for: Kiffin, Freeze, and Matt Luke


Revised Sanctions with the addendum in mind:
30-40 scholarships
5 years of probation
2-3 year bowl ban
2-5 year Show Causes for: Derrick Nix, Maurice Harris, and Hugh Freeze
Suspensions for: Chris Kiffin and Matt Luke
Lack of Institutional Control

I keep hearing Ole Miss fans saying, "well, no one has been fired so we are obviously OK". Let's talk about this. Remember our Redmond deal? What did we do? We immediately fired Angelo Mirando, this was for a violation only worth 4 scholarships. Remember the Bo Davis/Alabama situation early in the Summer? Nick Saban found out that Bo Davis was visiting recruits during a no contact period, what did Saban do? Immediately fire Bo Davis. Actually, that exact violation is on OM's original NOA, but no one has been fired. Why has no one been fired at OM? Because every single one of your coaches is guilty, they know it and Freeze knows it. If Freeze fired a coach for something that he told the assistant coach to do, you can bet your ass that that coach would take advantage of the immunity deal and take down Freeze and Ole Miss on a level that hasn't been seen since SMU. Let that sink in.

Enjoy your last supper of a season this year, but just remember, no matter how this season turns out for y'all, it will always have a big ole asterisk next to it. At this point the only question is whether the NCAA chooses death row or life in prison. Pick your poison Rebels, you asked for it, and you will get everything you deserve.

Happy Maroon Friday to all!

Now that the addendum is out, I can more accurately revise my original predictions, note that I did predict the Lack of Institutional Control back in August...

PART 5: THE ADDENDUM

Part 5(a): Lack of Institutional Control:

Looking at previous lack of institutional control cases:

Ole Miss 1994: included improper benefits from staff members and boosters. 24 scholarships over 2 years.
Kentucky 2002: included failure to monitor by head coach, improper recruiting by boosters and coaches. 19 scholarships over 3 years and a one year bowl ban.
Alabama 2002: included impermissible recruiting and extra benefits. 21 scholarships over 3 years and 2 year bowl ban.

Conservative guess for just the LOIC charge:

10-12 scholarships
1 year bowl ban


Part 5(b): Impermissible benefit's allegations: (includes addendum allegations 2, 4, 5, 7)

-Allegation #2- former staff member providing 2 prospective student athletes with $2,272 in lodging/transportation and $235 in meals.
-Allegation #4- Barney initiated and facilitated two boosters having impermissible contact with two boosters having impermissible contact with Prospective student athlete B. The value of the allegation of the alleged inducements was in between $13,000-$15,600.
-Allegation #5- two different former coaches arranged for 3 different Prospective Student Athletes to receive merchandise from a booster owned business over a 3 year span. The recruiting inducements had an alleged value of $2,800.
-Allegation #7- A booster provided Prospective Student Athlete B with food and drinks. The recruiting inducements had an alleged value between $200-$600.

In total:

$18,507-$21,507 in recruiting inducements
involves 2 different former coaches, 4 different recruits, 2 boosters, and 1 booster owned business

Very conservative guess for part 5(b):

8-12 scholarships
1 year bowl ban


Part 5(c): Coaching allegations: (includes addendum allegations 3 and 8)

-Allegation #3: Barney violated the NCAA principles of ethical conduct when he knowingly committed recruiting violations and knowingly provided false or misleading info to the NCAA.
-Allegation #8: Freeze violated head coach responsibility legislation.

These allegations will be more focused on show causes more than anything.

Looking at OM's women's basketball and track cases:

-The former OM Women's head basketball coach was charged with head coach responsibility legislation and received a 2 year show cause.
-The former OM Women's basketball coach was charged with violation of ethical conduct and received a 6 year show cause
-The former OM Women's director of basketball operations was charged with violation of ethical conduct and received a 6 year show cause.
-The former OM head track coach was charged with head coach responsibility legislation and received a 1 year show cause.
-The women's basketball team was docked 2 scholarships over 1 year, which is equal to about 11 scholarships in football, but this also takes into account the impermissible recruiting.

Both the head basketball and track coach got their respective show causes based off two assistant coaches involved in impermissible recruiting and/or violation of ethical conduct. Freeze will have at least 4 different assistant coaches, and will be punished more harshly than the women's basketball coach and track coach.

Conservative guess for part 5(c):

4-6 scholarships
6-10 year show cause for Barney
2-5 year show cause for Freeze




Original NOA Santion Estimation(7/21/16):

24-36 scholarships
4 years of probation
2 year bowl ban
Show Causes for: Nix and Harris
Suspensions for: Kiffin, Freeze, and Matt Luke

Original Revised NOA Sanction Estimation with future addendum in mind(8/26/16):

30-40 scholarships
5 years of probation
2-3 year bowl ban
2-5 year Show Causes for: Derrick Nix, Maurice Harris, and Hugh Freeze
Suspensions for: Chris Kiffin and Matt Luke
Lack of Institutional Control

Addendum allegations only Sanction Estimation(2/24/17):

22-30 scholarships
2 year bowl ban
6-10 year show cause for Barney
2-5 year show cause for Freeze

Final Revised NOA Sanction Estimation including actual addendum(2/24/17):

46-66 scholarships
5-6 years of probation
2-3 year bowl ban
2-10 year show causes for: Derrick Nix, Maurice Harris, Hugh Freeze and Barney Farrar
Suspensions for: Chris Kiffin and Matt Luke
Lack of Institutional Control(CONFIRMED)

Happy Maroon Friday to all!
Last edited by DeviousDawg34; 02-24-2017 at 11:15 AM.

DeviousDawg34 your thoughts NOW 5 months later?

[confucius say]

4 year probation.
30 schollies.
2 year bowl ban
1 year suspension for Freeze
Millions in lost revenue
Vacated wins
Multiple show causes

And we will still say not enough.

[Dolphus Raymond]

My prediction has solidified at 32 over 4, a 2 year bowl ban and 4 years probation. (As well a reduced recruiting visits etc. ) What I can't get my arm around is what becomes of Freeze; a 1 year suspension or 2-3 year show cause?
Edit: Whether Freeze gets a suspension or a show cause, this will be his last season at Ole Miss, and he may not even make it that long.

[MadDawg]

4 year probation.
30 schollies.
2 year bowl ban
1 year suspension for Freeze
Millions in lost revenue
Vacated wins
Multiple show causes

And we will still say not enough.

One thing that is not talked about very much is how much $$ this is going to wind up costing TCUN. Think about it, bowl revenue alone is about 8 million. 2 year bowl ban doubles that. Then add in the monetary penalties, the salaries of coaches that will be show-caused, lawyer fees, reduced ticket sales, fewer people on campus spending money. It's staggering if you think about it.

[Dawg61]

https://media.giphy.com/media/9mgfUcJmFgx7W/giphy.gif
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[louisvilledawg]

I am going with the NCAA will accept penalties already put forth by UM. Everyone goes about their business moving forward. I will not believe they will suffer, until it actually happens.

Somebody get this phuggin guy out of here. Dude is a reb.

[Tbonewannabe]

30 over 3
3 year bowl ban.
Show cause for Hugh plus a donkey punch from the NCAA.

Fixed it.

[QuadrupleOption]

https://cdn.meme.am/cache/instances/folder696/72151696.jpg

[Lord McBuckethead]

Somebody get this phuggin guy out of here. Dude is a reb.

Nope not a Reb, just a "will believe it when I see it" kind of guy. No explanation needed.

[PMDawg]

400 scholarships over 50 years (FIFTY!)
50 year probation
20 year bowl ban
Removed from SEC
Forced to become a member of the SWAC
Must hire Croom for at least 10 years
Forfeit all wins in program history
$1B fine
No recruiting visits for 20 years
Lifetime ban for Hugh and Bjork
The Grove has to be burned and bulldozed
Cold chicken fingers outlawed in Oxford

This seems like a good start... (**)

[MadDawg]

400 scholarships over 50 years (FIFTY!)
50 year probation
20 year bowl ban
Removed from SEC
Forced to become a member of the SWAC
Must hire Croom for at least 10 years
Forfeit all wins in program history
$1B fine
No recruiting visits for 20 years
Lifetime ban for Hugh and Bjork
The Grove has to be burned and bulldozed
Cold chicken fingers outlawed in Oxford

This seems like a good start... (**)

Someone's been reading the matrix.....

[Jack Lambert]

This

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ug5IHeEUVDA

[Ari Gold]

~35-40 scholarships over 4-5 years.
4-5 years probation.
3 year bowl ban.
Voided wins from 2013-2016.
Bowl revenue paid back from 2013-2016.
No incoming bowl revenue from 2016-2019.
~5 year show cause for Freeze.
Multiple assistants with show causes.
Possible show cause for Bjork, if they don't preemptively fire him.
And a muddy, empty grove until 2024.

If it's over 30 and 4 or more
Muddy empty grove for at LEAST 10 years

[yjnkdawg]

I am going with the NCAA will accept penalties already put forth by UM. Everyone goes about their business moving forward. I will not believe they will suffer, until it actually happens.


LOL You may be correct on your first part, but there will be additional penalties added on. Ole Miss and ULL's NCAA violation history's are not even in the same universe.

[yjnkdawg]

If it's over 30 and 4 or more
Muddy empty grove for at LEAST 10 years


I wonder if they can cut and sell the timber, disc the grove up, and plant soybeans to supplement their football program budget during these upcoming drought years? :D

[thf24]

I still like the idea (apologies, can't remember who originally posted it) of giving the OM fanbase a choice: 1.) 40 over 4, 3 year bowl ban, Freeze and Bjork gone; or 2.) NCAA accepts the self-imposed penalties, but the Grove is shut down for five years.

[DawgPoundtheRock]

4 year probation.
30 schollies.
2 year bowl ban
1 year suspension for Freeze
Millions in lost revenue
Vacated wins
Multiple show causes

And we will still say not enough.

This is the correct answer. However, PMDawg's post is certainly a good start.

[Ari Gold]

I am going with the NCAA will **** them hard.
There I fixed it for you.

There you go.

[Reason2succeed]

4 year probation.
30 schollies.
2 year bowl ban
1 year suspension for Freeze
Millions in lost revenue
Vacated wins
Multiple show causes

And we will still say not enough.

What I will say is that the NCAA did not follow their own matrix and that OM's continuation of cheating paid off. The picked up another out of state 5 star LT after being under investigation.

[Jack Lambert]

400 scholarships over 50 years (FIFTY!)
50 year probation
20 year bowl ban
Removed from SEC
Forced to become a member of the SWAC
Must hire Croom for at least 10 years
Forfeit all wins in program history
$1B fine
No recruiting visits for 20 years
Lifetime ban for Hugh and Bjork
The Grove has to be burned and bulldozed
Cold chicken fingers outlawed in Oxford

This seems like a good start... (**)

You are assuming the SWAC would take them.

[Reason2succeed]

You are assuming the SWAC would take them.

Oh the SWAC would take them. Trust me there are plenty of HBCUs that would get up for a game against the confederate flag toting Rebels who want to see "south rise again". There is a reason why OM has not followed our lead of playing JSU and Alcorn.

[confucius say]

What I will say is that the NCAA did not follow their own matrix and that OM's continuation of cheating paid off. The picked up another out of state 5 star LT after being under investigation.

That's my point. Expectations need to be tempered a bit. They will get hammered and their program set back 5 years, but the matrix will not be followed verbatim. They aren't getting 80 schollies and a 10 year bowl ban.

[Token Bammer]

30 scholarships would not be enough. With USC getting 30 the punishment would not fit the crime. 40-50 scholarships would be justice imo and not one under 40. Once these sort of numbers start coming into play a two year death penalty should at least be discussed by the decision makers.

Mudholing about to commence.

[LockeDawg]

I don't see how OM skirts the LOIC charge. They had/have 3 sports programs charged with infractions + Academic Fraud and this shit spans multiple years, multiple coaches, multiple AD's. Now add in just the stuff under Freeze, and they admittedly owned up to cheating while under investigation and that's solid proof that the Institution Lacked Control of their entire athletic department. Freeze had no system in place to monitor his own staff, active players, or the very recruiting process he put in place. So he gets slapped for FTM.

LOIC on University w/Bjork getting canned
32-36 over 4yr scholly reductions
5 yrs probation
2 yr bowl ban
50% reduction in recruiting contact and visits allowed
Show cause and FTM on Freeze
Show cause on 3-4 other coaches from Nutt's staff and Freeze's staff
Over a dozen "Boosters" disassociated
Relinquish SEC profit sharing revenue for 2 years
Completely re-vamp that clown show of a Compliance Department

[Dolphus Raymond]

I thought Ole Miss would avoid LOIC until I read the second paragraph of their response, where they admitted that the cheating continued during the course of the investigation. When a school admits to that, they are screwed.

[LockeDawg]

I thought Ole Miss would avoid LOIC until I read the second paragraph of their response, where they admitted that the cheating continued during the course of the investigation. When a school admits to that, they are screwed.

I pegged them with LOIC when I saw 3 (THREE) different sports charged, and Academic Fraud. Not one soul was in charge up there, and they had no system in place to monitor their staff while the NCAA was all up in their shit for years on end.

[WSOPdawg]

That's my point. Expectations need to be tempered a bit. They will get hammered and their program set back 5 years, but the matrix will not be followed verbatim. They aren't getting 80 schollies and a 10 year bowl ban.

I definitely could be talked into tempering hammer expectations if... TCUN had not been caught cheating while the investigation was ongoing and if... TCUN had not run rough-shod over keeping everything private (but instead sic'd the hounds on SA 39 & 40, and we all know they did). The ncaa will frown big time on these two caveats and viola' the new matrix is used to scare many a team going forward.

[Ezsoil]

Keeping in mind the issues with Freeze go back to the Oher issue and the Powe issue (when the Waynesboro testing center was set up by Saunders and Freeze) ...and that the whole college world is watching....I am betting at least 40 scholarships over 4 , three year bowl ban, 5 year probation , 10 year show cause for Freeze, Saunders and Fararr ...5 years show cause for Kiffin and Vaughn... and regardless of what the penalties are ...they won't quit cheating.

[DancingRabbit]

I pegged them with LOIC when I saw 3 (THREE) different sports charged, and Academic Fraud. Not one soul was in charge up there, and they had no system in place to monitor their staff while the NCAA was all up in their shit for years on end.

Has an AD ever received a show cause? Seems like Bjork has earned one.

[Reason2succeed]

That's my point. Expectations need to be tempered a bit. They will get hammered and their program set back 5 years, but the matrix will not be followed verbatim. They aren't getting 80 schollies and a 10 year bowl ban.

I don't quite understand why you are so concerned with other people's expectations. Your concern that message board posters will embarrass you and MSU is a little over the edge. Maybe you should try Buddha instead of Confucius.*** (That's a religious philosophy joke. Don't get your panties too wadded up.)

If the matrix isn't going to be followed then the NCAA should not have put it out there. Someone is going to get embarrassed in this situation: OM or the NCAA. OM has pissed in the NCAA's cheerios and is now gaslighting them saying they haven't. Additionally OM has boosters going to newfound lengths to obstruct "justice" which will have ramifications if allowed to work. And you think the NCAA should go light? If I were on the COI I would throw the book at them not because they are OM but because of the threat their actions pose to amateur student athletics.

[THE Bruce Dickinson]

deleted

[SheltonChoked]

50+ scholarships over 5+ years (no more than 10/year)
6 years of probation
3 year bowl ban
show causes for: Derrick Nix (4), Maurice Harris (4), Hugh Freeze (10-12), Bjork (10 years) and Barney Farrar(8) [Other AD positions also get show causes, but I don't care enough to look up who]
Suspensions for: Chris Kiffin(8 games) and Matt Luke (6 games)
Booster clubs disassociated
All games back to 2006 (Powe) forfeited/Vacated
Frozen SEC Revenue

[Reason2succeed]

Wrong thread

[redstickdawg]

50+ scholarships over 5+ years (no more than 10/year)
6 years of probation
3 year bowl ban
show causes for: Derrick Nix (4), Maurice Harris (4), Hugh Freeze (10-12), Bjork (10 years) and Barney Farrar(8) [Other AD positions also get show causes, but I don't care enough to look up who]
Suspensions for: Chris Kiffin(8 games) and Matt Luke (6 games)
Booster clubs disassociated
All games back to 2006 (Powe) forfeited/Vacated
Frozen SEC Revenue
I like this!

[WSOPdawg]

50+ scholarships over 5+ years (no more than 10/year)
6 years of probation
3 year bowl ban
show causes for: Derrick Nix (4), Maurice Harris (4), Hugh Freeze (10-12), Bjork (10 years) and Barney Farrar(8) [Other AD positions also get show causes, but I don't care enough to look up who]
Suspensions for: Chris Kiffin(8 games) and Matt Luke (6 games)
Booster clubs disassociated
All games back to 2006 (Powe) forfeited/Vacated
Frozen SEC Revenue

I think this is closer to true than those thinking 30 schollies. Myself I'm at 45 schollies over 4 years with a 3-year bowl ban and with 5+ years probation.

[WSOPdawg]

I don't quite understand why you are so concerned with other people's expectations. Your concern that message board posters will embarrass you and MSU is a little over the edge. Maybe you should try Buddha instead of Confucius.*** (That's a religious philosophy joke. Don't get your panties too wadded up.)

If the matrix isn't going to be followed then the NCAA should not have put it out there. Someone is going to get embarrassed in this situation: OM or the NCAA. OM has pissed in the NCAA's cheerios and is now gaslighting them saying they haven't. Additionally OM has boosters going to newfound lengths to obstruct "justice" which will have ramifications if allowed to work. And you think the NCAA should go light? If I were on the COI I would throw the book at them not because they are OM but because of the threat their actions pose to amateur student athletics.

Reason, you and me have been calling this all along -- that the NCAA is going to apply the matrix to TCUN and make an example out of them. Everything TCUN has done sans 2016 to obstruct the NCAA's process of justice will do them no favors as they're gonna be hammered into oblivion.

[Reason2succeed]

Reason, you and me have been calling this all along -- that the NCAA is going to apply the matrix to TCUN and make an example out of them. Everything TCUN has done sans 2016 to obstruct the NCAA's process of justice will do them no favors as they're gonna be hammered into oblivion.

My question to the "30 over 3" crowd is why? Why should the NCAA deviate from their matrix and go light on OM?

If it is because they are scared to hammer a "big time" D1 football program then there will be lawsuits from smaller schools and Title IX issues because they have hammered and shut down athletic programs for much less. If I were one of those programs or a coach or SA at one of those programs I would be calling a lawyer if OM skates.

[Pollodawg]

My question to the "30 over 3" crowd is why? Why should the NCAA deviate from their matrix and go light on OM?

If it is because they are scared to hammer a "big time" D1 football program then there will be lawsuits from smaller schools and Title IX issues because they have hammered and shut down athletic programs for much less. If I were one of those programs or a coach or SA at one of those programs I would be calling a lawyer if OM skates.



You are aware that 30 over 3 would keep them out of a bowl game for the better part of a decade, right? USC got that, and they still haven't recovered. OM ain't USC. It would end them.