Talk me out of State's 5.5 Over

[Big4Dawg]

I don't see how we don't win 6. Is everyone else hitting it hard?

[civildawg]

I'm just going to say I tried opening up a bet account to put big money on A&M last year. I know friends that lost a pretty big amount too. Turns out vegas was right

[missouridawg]

The only concern I have is an injury to the QB position. We are fairly thin at that position with 0 experience in depth.

[MetEdDawg]

I don't see how we don't win 6. Is everyone else hitting it hard?

Barring a Fitz injury or a string of important injuries, we win a minimum of 6. We will win all 4 of our non conference. And we literally had by far the worst defenses in the conference and like the worst pass defense in the country. We gave up 28 or more points in 8 straight games last year and gave up 20 or more in every game but the South Carolina game. No way in hell that happens under Grantham. This team will be so much better on defense and it will give us much better scoring opportunities on offense when we aren't starting every drive from a touchback on a kickoff.

Definitely go with the over. I think we will have legit chances to beat LSU, UGA, UK, TAMU, Arkansas, and OM. Auburn and Alabama scare me. But the other 6 conference games are all winnable I think.

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

I don't see how we don't win 6. Is everyone else hitting it hard?

I think we win seven. The four non-conference, UGA, UK, and Northern Miss.

[lamont]

We have 4 sure losses in LSU, Georgia, Auburn, and Bama. But other than that- no reason we couldn't get to 6- even with Keyteon

[TUSK]

I think y'all will be favored in 6... If you can steal a game as a road 'dog, you're a lock, IMO.

[PassInterference]

I don't see how we don't win 6. Is everyone else hitting it hard?

There has been optimism around every new DC we've had except Torbush.

How's that?

[biggun]

Favored in only half of our games with 2 of those nods coming solely from points for home field advantage.

Consider also just how bad our secondary was, and it was both our corner's and safeties being equally bad yet most of the same guys who stunk it up last year will once again be our starters again this season.

Add in that Mullen has been very vocal about how excited he is to have Tolando Cleveland returning to the starting lineup at CB and that alone should have you beyond terrified of the over 5.5

[Dawg61]

Only for sure loss on our schedule is Bama. Don't @ me Random.

[99jc]

We have 4 sure losses in LSU, Georgia, Auburn, and Bama. But other than that- no reason we couldn't get to 6- even with Keyteon

Of that shitstorm defense we had last year we always play auburn close even with crappy teams. I think we win at least 1 if not 2 of those 4 sure losses. Not that we couldn't lay an egg with say Kentucky or another team we should beat.

[MarketingBully]

Favored in only half of our games with 2 of those nods coming solely to points for home field advantage.

Consider also just how bad our secondary was, and it was both our corner's and safeties being equally bad yet most of the same guys who stunk it up last year will once again be our starters again this season.

Add in that Mullen has been very vocal about how excited he is to have Tolando Cleveland returning to the starting lineup at CB and that alone should have you beyond terrified of the over 5.5

We also had a shitty DC last year as well that had no idea what he was doing. As long as we are average on defense, which we should be with Grantham, our floor should be six.

[DancingRabbit]

Of that shitstorm defense we had last year we always play auburn close even with crappy teams. I think we win at least 1 if not 2 of those 4 sure losses. Not that we couldn't lay an egg with say Kentucky or another team we should beat.

I agree. We could lose to the Hogs or aTm. We could beat LSU, AU or UGA.

I think this year it's hard to figure the SECW and MSU. Lots of "wild cards" for us. New staff on defense. Questions about our secondary and dline depth. Does our passing game do enough to keep defense honest?

Hard for me to see us winning less than 6 or more than 8.

[Gutter Cobreh]

We have 4 sure losses in LSU, Georgia, Auburn, and Bama. But other than that- no reason we couldn't get to 6- even with Keyteon

I'm glad you included the "even with Keyteon" because Fitz's passing prowess still has me concerned. I realize it's only a spring game, but for everyone worrying about our secondary - our own QB looked like garbage against them. Did they play up, or did he have an off day?

As civildawg stated, Vegas doesn't miss much. Cautiously optimistic they are in this case.

[maroonmania]

I think there is a MUCH better chance we win 6+ than anything less than that. There are a few possibilities that would make me hesitate to put a potload of money on it though. One, as has been mentioned, if we lose Fitz we would have a true freshman QB learning his way in the SEC. Two, our schedule is harder this year than last year. We've traded an almost sure win in SC for a very difficult trip to GA this year. Also, any year we play Bama at home its a disadvantage because we are wasting one of our home field advantage games on a team that we have virtually no shot to beat regardless of game location. If I had my rathers, I would play Bama in Tuscaloosa every year in exchange for another home game against anyone else in the SEC. Three, our defense will definitely be improved but how much is an unknown until we actually see some games. And finally, losing Fred Ross plus watching the Spring game certainly will give you pause on how much production we can get our of our passing game plus we can't really count on making many FGs at the moment. So while we should be better in enough areas that I would say we have a pretty decent chance at a 7-8 win season I still can't say that getting to 6 is an automatic given.

[Dawg61]

I realize it's only a spring game

Do you really though? I didn't even watch the spring game cause it means absolute ****el

[Gutter Cobreh]

Do you really though? I didn't even watch the spring game cause it means absolute ****el

Whether you watched or not doesn't change the fact he threw 4 picks in one half of football against a secondary most here are worried about. Hell, he was even picked off by a D lineman (threw it right to him).

All I'm saying is he will have some growing pains, which could cost us a game or two. If those are against teams we think are locks, then we may not get to 6 wins.

I could also see Mullen calling plays to keep him in the pocket more this year, which would do the same.

[Covercorner2]

LSU isn't anywhere close to a "for sure loss," and hasn't been for 3 years.

Also, I wouldn't put too much stock into the Spring Game considering our offense, particularly under Fitz, is predicated by the QB run game, and the QBs were wearing green jerseys. It's a hell of a lot easier to play pass defense as a DB when you know the QB isn't going to run, you can give up rushing yards without repercussions, and, ultimately, you are auditioning for a starting spot by exhibiting the best coverage you can.

Look no further than the Dear TD reception against Ole Miss....

[State82]

If someone gave me $100 bill and told me to bet it I would take the over. However I don't know that I would be rushing out to put a substantial sum of my own money on it. I figure Vegas has the number about right.

[confucius say]

Barring significant injuries, over.

[maroonmania]

LSU isn't anywhere close to a "for sure loss," and hasn't been for 3 years.

Also, I wouldn't put too much stock into the Spring Game considering our offense, particularly under Fitz, is predicated by the QB run game, and the QBs were wearing green jerseys. It's a hell of a lot easier to play pass defense as a DB when you know the QB isn't going to run, you can give up rushing yards without repercussions, and, ultimately, you are auditioning for a starting spot by exhibiting the best coverage you can.

Look no further than the Dear TD reception against Ole Miss....

Alabama is the only game that is a near for sure loss however, on the flip side, we really only have the Charleston Southern and UMass games as near sure wins. BYU, even at home, is definitely not a sure win and going on the road to Ruston, LA has definitely proven tricky in the past.

[HSVDawg]

There has been optimism around every new DC we've had except Torbush.

How's that?

Uh, all of them have been pretty decent except Sirmon, who was the worst coordinator of either side of the ball in MSU football history.

[FISHDAWG]

I'm glad you included the "even with Keyteon" because Fitz's passing prowess still has me concerned. I realize it's only a spring game, but for everyone worrying about our secondary - our own QB looked like garbage against them. Did they play up, or did he have an off day?

As civildawg stated, Vegas doesn't miss much. Cautiously optimistic they are in this case.

I was told that Mullen said all but one of those picks were on the recvrs not being in the correct position / route because of their inexperience and he said he wasn't worried at all ... that's what I was told fwiw

[lamont]

I was told that Mullen said all but one of those picks were on the recvrs not being in the correct position / route because of their inexperience and he said he wasn't worried at all ... that's what I was told fwiw

That's coachspeak for "I'm keeping the heat off my QB". But it also speaks to what I've said about Couch and Todd and not getting your hopes up this season

[lamont]

LSU isn't anywhere close to a "for sure loss," and hasn't been for 3 years.

Also, I wouldn't put too much stock into the Spring Game considering our offense, particularly under Fitz, is predicated by the QB run game, and the QBs were wearing green jerseys. It's a hell of a lot easier to play pass defense as a DB when you know the QB isn't going to run, you can give up rushing yards without repercussions, and, ultimately, you are auditioning for a starting spot by exhibiting the best coverage you can.

Look no further than the Dear TD reception against Ole Miss....

LSU is the closest thing to a sure loss that we have. 16 of the last 17 years. You guys do this to yourself every year and then every year get disappointed. We haven't even had 100 rushing vs them the last 2 games COMBINED.

[biggun]

Of that shitstorm defense we had last year we always play auburn close even with crappy teams. I think we win at least 1 if not 2 of those 4 sure losses. Not that we couldn't lay an egg with say Kentucky or another team we should beat.

Auburn stomped us last year @ Davis Wade. It was 35-0 at half!!, destroyed from the opening whistle.

[Tbonewannabe]

5.5 is low for my expectations but you don't truly know what the defense will look like. We think that the Jucos will pan out and Grantham will get one of the worst defenses in the country immediately turned around. If that happens, I figure on between 7-9 wins with 6 being the minimum. If the Jucos take a half season like they do sometimes then you can probably shift the win total -1 or -2. Then the expectations become 6-8 with 5 being the minimum. Fitz will look a lot better than he did in the spring but we still need some more passing options to show up. Whether it is Couch, Todd, or Mitchell being the Bear type receiver we need or the TEs picking up the slack, we need something on offense. Our run game should be pretty good with the RBs we have and Fitz being the best running QB in the country.

Our defense could also take a giant step forward if Simmons is as consistently good as we think he could be. Simmons, Sweat, and Rivers might live in the backfield which will help the entire D out tremendously.

[Tbonewannabe]

That's coachspeak for "I'm keeping the heat off my QB". But it also speaks to what I've said about Couch and Todd and not getting your hopes up this season

I think it also shows how complicated Mullen has now made the offense. We aren't just a spread option running QB offense anymore. There is a reason that Dak was ready to play in Game 1 in the NFL. This isn't the same passing offense that Chris Relf ran in the Gator Bowl.

[MarketingBully]

There has been optimism around every new DC we've had except Torbush.

How's that?

Sirmon was by far the shittiest DC I have ever seen and it was also his first year ever at that position. Every other DC Mullen has had has at least been decent/average. If our D was decent to average last year, this would have been an 8/9 win team. Last year was also our first year in the 3/4 which takes at least a year to get everything in place. I think Grantham will give us an above average defense and the way we should be able to run the football we should be able to surprise some people.

[DancingRabbit]

I was told that Mullen said all but one of those picks were on the recvrs not being in the correct position / route because of their inexperience and he said he wasn't worried at all ... that's what I was told fwiw

If I recall correctly, two of the picks went off the receivers hands.

[MarketingBully]

LSU is the closest thing to a sure loss that we have. 16 of the last 17 years. You guys do this to yourself every year and then every year get disappointed. We haven't even had 100 rushing vs them the last 2 games COMBINED.

Dumbest hire in the history of hires was them hiring Ed O. Just plain dumb. That rivals them hiring Curley Hallman or Gerry Dinardo.

[lamont]

Dumbest hire in the history of hires was them hiring Ed O. Just plain dumb. That rivals them hiring Curley Hallman or Gerry Dinardo.

Why? His body of work since OM is pretty good. He has steadied 2 programs after they fired the coach. I think he will do a great job. He is going to discipline and recruit- and let his coordinators do the coaching.

[Coldsleeve Jr.]

Is Grantham running a 3-4 or 4-3? Just curious.

I go back and forth on the O hire. Seems dumb on the surface but can't ignore his record since the OM days. He'll do dumb stuff but I think he'll surprise some ppl too.

[MarketingBully]

Why? His body of work since OM is pretty good. He has steadied 2 programs after they fired the coach. I think he will do a great job. He is going to discipline and recruit- and let his coordinators do the coaching.

We shall see RP. We shall see.

[MarketingBully]

Is Grantham running a 3-4 or 4-3? Just curious.

I go back and forth on the O hire. Seems dumb on the surface but can't ignore his record since the OM days. He'll do dumb stuff but I think he'll surprise some ppl too.

Grantham is a 3-4 guy but it wouldn't surprise me if we saw multiple looks but the majority will be 3-4.

[Dawg61]

LSU is the closest thing to a sure loss that we have. 16 of the last 17 years. You guys do this to yourself every year and then every year get disappointed. We haven't even had 100 rushing vs them the last 2 games COMBINED.

How many of those 17 years did LSU have a gorilla coaching them?

[Covercorner2]

LSU is the closest thing to a sure loss that we have. 16 of the last 17 years. You guys do this to yourself every year and then every year get disappointed. We haven't even had 100 rushing vs them the last 2 games COMBINED.

The games the past three years have been decided by 10 points COMBINED, with State winning one of them. Two of them were also in Death Valley, this one is in Starkville.

[MarketingBully]

Why? His body of work since OM is pretty good. He has steadied 2 programs after they fired the coach. I think he will do a great job. He is going to discipline and recruit- and let his coordinators do the coaching.

They bungled the coaching hire. They should have gone all in and given whatever it took to get Jimbo Fisher and made him such a deal that Jimbo would have been a fool to turn it down. They were never going to get Tom Herman with the Texas job opening up. Fisher was legitimately interested in the LSU job and had a great support system and felt comfortable there. I just don't see how they are going to get to where they want to go which is winning conference and national championships with Coach O.

[Brahmabull]

I got down on it a couple of weeks ago. Anything can happen but I think we can get to 6 wins.

[lamont]

How many of those 17 years did LSU have a gorilla coaching them?

12 or so

[lamont]

The games the past three years have been decided by 10 points COMBINED, with State winning one of them. Two of them were also in Death Valley, this one is in Starkville.

The last 2 years have also seen LSU hold 18 and 20 point leads in the 2nd half as they just tried to coast to a win.

[confucius say]

The last 2 years have also seen LSU hold 18 and 20 point leads in the 2nd half as they just tried to coast to a win.

2016 yes. 2015 no. That was not a coast to a win. Game was in doubt whole 4th quarter and miles new it. He said as much in interview after game. And 2014 was the ultimate attempt by us to coast to a win.

Will Lsu win this year? Probably. Is it a stone cold lock as you say? No.

[Dawg61]

12 or so

You saying Orgeron > Miles?

[BB30]

I surprisingly actually agree with Random on this one. I think Ed O will do just fine at LSU. I don't know if he will consistently win the West or NCs but I certainly don't see them taking a step back from Les. They just have too much talent on the roster. Not saying I don't think we can beat them but they have owned us. I do think 6 wins is in the bag though.

[lamont]

You saying Orgeron > Miles?

I'm saying Orgeron is going to continue to win at LSU

[lamont]

2016 yes. 2015 no.
Will Lsu win this year? Probably. Is it a stone cold lock as you say? No.

LSU led 21-3 in the 2nd half in 2015. Thats a fact. Did we come back? Yes. But only because Miles took the air out of the ball and tried to run the clock out. He did the same thing in 2016

[TUSK]

You saying Orgeron > Miles?

:eek:

[confucius say]

I surprisingly actually agree with Random on this one. I think Ed O will do just fine at LSU. I don't know if he will consistently win the West or NCs but I certainly don't see them taking a step back from Les. They just have too much talent on the roster. Not saying I don't think we can beat them but they have owned us. I do think 6 wins is in the bag though.

I agree on ed o. Lsu will stay the same, roughly.

[confucius say]

LSU led 21-3 in the 2nd half in 2015. Thats a fact. Did we come back? Yes. But only because Miles took the air out of the ball and tried to run the clock out. He did the same thing in 2016

Absolutely false. Not a fact. Lsu never led 21-3. It was 14-3 at half, 14-6, 21-6, and then 21-13 with fifteen minutes to play.

And Lsu threw it 8 times in fist half and 6 times in second half. Play calling didn't markedly change in second half.

[Ari Gold]

I don't see how we don't win 6. Is everyone else hitting it hard?

Then don't bet it *****.

[lamont]

Oh my bad. They were only up 15 in the 2nd half

[confucius say]

Oh my bad. They were only up 15 in the 2nd half

Three points is a Huge difference. You're a respected coach. You know this.
We almost pulled a rabbit out the hat in 2016. Not the case in 2015. We dropped a game tying two point conversion and botched a shot at a game winning field goal. Game was in doubt whole fourth quarter.

[smootness]

UGA is definitely not a sure loss. LSU and Auburn, it just depends on how good they end up being. But UGA? No.