Guessing OM Scholarships and Bowl Ban (Using NCAA Penalty Matrix)

[Big4Dawg]

https://i.imgur.com/ZRdgaFO.jpg

Found the listing on OM from an OM fan on Reddit. Used the new NCAA Penalty Matrix (https://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/Att2_Penalty%2BGuideline%2BMatrix%2B%28Version%2B6 %29_101212.pdf).

This is assuming they wipe away all of the Leo Lewis stuff.

Let's also assume the throw out everything from Pre-Freeze HC tenure. Still 4 to 8 year bowl ban and 80 scholarships.

I know that sounds extreme but it's also the rules in place and I think that is kinda the point.

http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/news/violator-beware-penalties-new-enforcement-structure-pack-punch



Now that the new structure is poised to be implemented this August, among the most frequently stated reactions to it is how its penalty guidelines will make potential rule-breakers realize there’s no reward for the risk.

Seeking stronger sanctions and a clearer “if you do this, then you can expect that” model for violations and penalties, the Enforcement Working Group developed a matrix that succinctly lays out the consequences that can be expected for various breaches of conduct.

“It was clear we needed to have stiffer and more predictable penalties so that people who were doing the ‘risk-reward’ calculation would think twice whether it was in their interests to engage in bad behavior,” said working group chair Ed Ray, the president at Oregon State University. “Having penalty guidelines – and having the penalties that are in those guidelines be more severe than what we have now – was a good way of sending clear signals to people.”
.....
The working group surveyed the membership from the start and quickly encountered a “we’re not going to take it anymore” kind of response. Harris said the “risk/reward” analysis was a recurring theme.
....
“We provided a range, as is done with sentencing guidelines, where the judge has to pretty much stay within those unless there are extraordinary circumstances,” he said.
....
“It is formulaic in a sense, but there is a subjective element to that formula,” Harris said. “The committee will slot a case and figure out the penalties, but the committee has the discretion to depart from the guidelines, which account for mitigating and aggravating factors, if there truly are extraordinary circumstances.”

[mstatefan91]

http://www.ravenousmonster.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/austin-powers-meme.jpg

[Homedawg]

https://i.imgur.com/ZRdgaFO.jpg

Found the listing on OM from an OM fan on Reddit. Used the new NCAA Penalty Matrix (https://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/Att2_Penalty%2BGuideline%2BMatrix%2B%28Version%2B6 %29_101212.pdf).

This is assuming they wipe away all of the Leo Lewis stuff.

Let's also assume the throw out everything from Pre-Freeze HC tenure. Still 4 to 8 year bowl ban and 80 scholarships.

And that's why this matrix is bogus. That isnt going to happen. Nowhere close.

[mstatefan91]

And that's why this matrix is bogus. That isnt going to happen. Nowhere close.

3-4 year bowl ban, 40-50 schollies, show causes all around. 10 years of pain and suffering for OM is what my guess is.

[ShotgunDawg]

And that's why this matrix is bogus. That isnt going to happen. Nowhere close.

So how does the NCAA do this while setting precedent?

Do they throw the matrix in the garbage and start over?

It's clear the matrix was designed with the thought that no one would cheat this badly, but, since it did, now what?

[ShotgunDawg]

3-4 year bowl ban, 40-50 schollies, show causes all around. 10 years of pain and suffering for OM is what my guess is.

How does the NCAA get to your prediction with matrix?

Like a math problem, this is a problem that requires you to show your work

[fader2103]

I suspect a 4 million dollar raise for Freeze*****

[Big4Dawg]

And that's why this matrix is bogus. That isnt going to happen. Nowhere close.

I agree it's bogus but it's also what they set up.

[Randolph Dupree]

This is why I think the DP might be on the table. Repeat offender status or not, NCAA doesn't want to scrap the matrix first time out, that wouldn't look good for them. It might come down to ego vs ego and the NCAA holds the cards.

[blacklistedbully]

If I understand Really Clark's consistent position, he does not think the COI is required by rule to punish each violation specifically...rather he believes they will group violations into categories, then use the multiple violations within each category to determine , "Standard, Aggravated, or Mitigated".

[Big4Dawg]

If I understand Really Clark's consistent position, he does not think the COI is required by rule to punish each violation specifically...rather he believes they will group violations into categories, then use the multiple violations within each category to determine , "Standard, Aggravated, or Mitigated".

Reading the article, it isn't very clear. So what if they have a level 1 and level 2? the level 2s just go away?

[Reason2succeed]

How does the NCAA get to your prediction with matrix?

Like a math problem, this is a problem that requires you to show your work

Exactly! People throw out arbitrary numbers with no justification and gen say those of us saying DP are the irrational ones. No, I looked at what is in the matrix and agree that it would be insane and that OM would prefer a 1 or 2 year DP over those sanctions. This frees the NCAA of the legal retaliation of offending the repeat offender guidelines if OM self imposed the DP.

Anything less and the NCAA gets evicerated by the media for deviating from their own matrix on the first case. Then programs know that when they are caught they can just keep cheating and put the NCAA in the same pickle again.

[QuadrupleOption]

And that's why this matrix is bogus. That isnt going to happen. Nowhere close.

The minimum for each Level 1 standard violation is a 12.5% reduction. I'm guessing (because I can't find an actual explanation) that percentage is counted against a full 25 scholarships per year.
If the COI throws out every violation that UM is disputing, they will be hit with a MINIMUM 30 scholarship reduction.
If the COI agrees with the investigation's findings but imposes the MINIMUM penalty in each case, the are looking at 45 scholarships lost. Minimum.

I'm guessing somewhere in the neighborhood of 60 scholarships, show causes for every coach named, and at least a 4 year bowl ban. It should be an 8 year ban, but if they lose 60 scholarships they won't be making a bowl game in the next 10 years anyway so it's a moot point.

[blacklistedbully]

Even using RC's POV, it sure looks to me like the best UNM can hope for is based on:
1. L1 aggravated for ACT fraud
2. L1 Aggravated for Recruiting Violations
3. L1 Standard for Illegal Benefits

And this is with them not getting hammered with LOIC, etc.

If they follow the matrix, it would seem to mean:
1. 64 lost scholarships
2. 5 years bowl ban
3. 14 years probation
4. Multiple show causes, including as much as 12 years for some

I don't know how you dole that out where it's not worse than a DP, unless staying in the SEC requires them to avoid the DP.

If you do enforce it that way, then perhaps:
1. 16 lost scholarships x 4 years
2. 5 years bowl ban
3. Probation until SOL runs out (Is there one?)

I just have a hard time believing it could actually happen this way...but if I'm understanding the matrix correctly, this would seem to be a minimum expectation.

[FISHDAWG]

Reading the article, it isn't very clear. So what if they have a level 1 and level 2? the level 2s just go away?

so does that mean the "moral of the story" says, if you're gonna cheat then cheat BIG ?

[BrunswickDawg]

Even using RC's POV, it sure looks to me like the best UNM can hope for is based on:
1. L1 aggravated for ACT fraud
2. L1 Aggravated for Recruiting Violations
3. L1 Standard for Illegal Benefits

And this is with them not getting hammered with LOIC, etc.

If they follow the matrix, it would seem to mean:
1. 64 lost scholarships
2. 5 years bowl ban
3. 14 years probation
4. Multiple show causes, including as much as 12 years for some

I don't know how you dole that out where it's not worse than a DP, unless staying in the SEC requires them to avoid the DP.

If you do enforce it that way, then perhaps:
1. 16 lost scholarships x 4 years
2. 5 years bowl ban
3. Probation until SOL runs out (Is there one?)

I just have a hard time believing it could actually happen this way...but if I'm understanding the matrix correctly, this would seem to be a minimum expectation.

Your Show Cause estimate could be right - didn't Saunders get 12 years?

[Gutter Cobreh]

I'm sure when the matrix was put into place, no one would have thought there would be a school as stupid as TSUN to commit this many violations and continue to cheat while under investigation.

17 those $h**birds!

[Bubb Rubb]

Even using RC's POV, it sure looks to me like the best UNM can hope for is based on:
1. L1 aggravated for ACT fraud
2. L1 Aggravated for Recruiting Violations
3. L1 Standard for Illegal Benefits

And this is with them not getting hammered with LOIC, etc.

If they follow the matrix, it would seem to mean:
1. 64 lost scholarships
2. 5 years bowl ban
3. 14 years probation
4. Multiple show causes, including as much as 12 years for some

I don't know how you dole that out where it's not worse than a DP, unless staying in the SEC requires them to avoid the DP.

If you do enforce it that way, then perhaps:
1. 16 lost scholarships x 4 years
2. 5 years bowl ban
3. Probation until SOL runs out (Is there one?)

I just have a hard time believing it could actually happen this way...but if I'm understanding the matrix correctly, this would seem to be a minimum expectation.

This is essentially the death penalty. If they only allowed Ole Miss to sign 9 scholarship players a year for 4 years, that would be MUCH worse than them killing the program for a year and starting over.

They would be playing Ed Generro Iron Man Two Way Football in the SEC with those kind of scholarship limitations. This is why I don't think the COI will go by the matrix literally. I think they will categorize them and penalize generally.

I still think we'll see 35-40 scholarships over 4 years with a two year ban and a freeze show cause.

[ShotgunDawg]

This is essentially the death penalty. If they only allowed Ole Miss to sign 9 scholarship players a year for 4 years, that would be MUCH worse than them killing the program for a year and starting over.

They would be playing Ed Generro Iron Man Two Way Football in the SEC with those kind of scholarship limitations. This is why I don't think the COI will go by the matrix literally. I think they will categorize them and penalize generally.

I still think we'll see 35-40 scholarships over 4 years with a two year ban and a freeze show cause.

Maybe. Will be interesting to see how they come up with that and how it affects the long term future of NCAA enforcement.

[ShotgunDawg]

I'm sure when the matrix was put into place, no one would have thought there would be a school as stupid as TSUN to commit this many violations and continue to cheat while under investigation.

17 those $h**birds!

This we can all agree on

[WSOPdawg]

The good thing is that after the NCAA drops the hammer, we'll all know how the penalty matrix is to be applied going forward. I think this is what EVERY other school is wanting to see as well.

[RocketDawg]

I haven't read the NCAA information (to a great extent anyway) nor have I sifted through the various postings on this thread, but what I'd like to know ... are the penalties additive? In other words, is having 5 Level I violations 5 times as bad as having a single Level 1? Surely the NCAA left themselves some wiggle room in handing out penalties for even unprecedented cheating. Could be that the wiggle room results in the death penalty for such egregious violations.

[Johnson85]

This is why I think the DP might be on the table. Repeat offender status or not, NCAA doesn't want to scrap the matrix first time out, that wouldn't look good for them. It might come down to ego vs ego and the NCAA holds the cards.

They won't be scrapping it. The important part of the matrix is that schools get hammered even for one level I. Since it's fairly easy to cheat without the NCAA really getting proof of it, not hammering people for a small infraction means the risk reward analysis leads to cheating.

The flip side is that it sets up the incentive structure of, if you're going to cheat, cheat big, because there's not much room to increase punishment after one major infraction. But realistically, is anybody really cheating as a one off incident? I think for every school but Ole Miss, they'll look at the matrix and not want to push the envelope and the cheating will sort of be held at the status quo, or maybe even rolled back ever so slightly.

[Dawgowar]

The good thing is that after the NCAA drops the hammer, we'll all know how the penalty matrix is to be applied going forward. I think this is what EVERY other school is wanting to see as well.

UNC and Louisville approve of your post. They really want to know.

[Really Clark?]

Even using RC's POV, it sure looks to me like the best UNM can hope for is based on:
1. L1 aggravated for ACT fraud
2. L1 Aggravated for Recruiting Violations
3. L1 Standard for Illegal Benefits

And this is with them not getting hammered with LOIC, etc.

If they follow the matrix, it would seem to mean:
1. 64 lost scholarships
2. 5 years bowl ban
3. 14 years probation
4. Multiple show causes, including as much as 12 years for some

I don't know how you dole that out where it's not worse than a DP, unless staying in the SEC requires them to avoid the DP.

If you do enforce it that way, then perhaps:
1. 16 lost scholarships x 4 years
2. 5 years bowl ban
3. Probation until SOL runs out (Is there one?)

I just have a hard time believing it could actually happen this way...but if I'm understanding the matrix correctly, this would seem to be a minimum expectation.

The impermissible benefits, recruiting violations, etc. fall under the individual(s). Those penalties will fall under what you punish individuals for in the matrix. Show Causes, Suspensions, recruiting visits, etc. It is the number and/or severity of those charges against the individuals that have brought the LOIC charge. The ACT Fraud and LOIC will be the majority of what the school will be punished for in as far as probation, scholarship reduction, postseason ban, financial penalties, etc. The HC Responsibility charge is also tied to the depth and number of staffers who have allegations. Now because of severity and/or number of infractions or being found lying, that is what slides the Level of the infraction through the different aggravated, standard, or mitigated levels. Now because of the number of individuals, staff and boosters, who were committing the most severe violations, I do believe that gets you to the Level 1 aggravated part of the matrix for the LOIC. But the aggravated level is just my guess.

[CadaverDawg]

I keep seeing "2 year bowl ban" by our fans.....I will be severely disappointed if they only get a 2 year bowl ban. I want every D1 level player to look at that place as a wasteland for the next 10 years. If they can't fully follow the matrix due to the amount of infractions...then the NCAA should makeup for scholly losses with bowl ban years and show causes.

Any penalty to this amount of cheating that allows OM the chance at postseason play within the next 5-6 years at a bare minimum, is getting off light in my opinion.

Not saying it won't be only 2 years...just saying the NCAA failed the bowl ban portion of punishment if it's only 2 years in my opinion

[ShotgunDawg]

I keep seeing "2 year bowl ban" by our fans.....I will be severely disappointed if they only get a 2 year bowl ban. I want every D1 level player to look at that place as a wasteland for the next 10 years. If they can't fully follow the matrix due to the amount of infractions...then the NCAA should makeup for scholly losses with bowl ban years and show causes.

Any penalty to this amount of cheating that allows OM the chance at postseason play within the next 5-6 years at a bare minimum, is getting off light in my opinion.

Not saying it won't be only 2 years...just saying the NCAA failed the bowl ban portion of punishment if it's only 2 years in my opinion

Agree. Feels like the NCAA has to clamp down somewhere if giving them a 120 schollies reduction is off the table.

[preachermatt83]

A lot of things will be lumped together and a few things will be mitigated or downright throw out and some of u guys are gonna be disappointed. 30 schollies lost over 4 years is very very challenging to overcome within a decade. Not to mention what will likely be a 2 year bowl ban. It's just not gonna be much worse than that. And that's enough to set them back big time for ten years. Also I think freeze skirts a show cause. I think he might end up serving a short suspension but that's it. Barney and kiffin will get show causes.

[PMDawg]

How does the NCAA get to your prediction with matrix?

Like a math problem, this is a problem that requires you to show your work

The thing is, there's enough there that they can make the math work to get to whatever answer they want. Ole Miss is fighting a bunch, they tossed out "exemplary cooperation", Hugh's response says he's an angel from Heaven who was just deceived and shocked by the evil in the world, blah blah blah. The COI probably has a number they're shooting for and they'll figure out a way to get there.

[PMDawg]

A lot of things will be lumped together and a few things will be mitigated or downright throw out and some of u guys are gonna be disappointed. 30 schollies lost over 4 years is very very challenging to overcome within a decade. Not to mention what will likely be a 2 year bowl ban. It's just not gonna be much worse than that. And that's enough to set them back big time for ten years. Also I think freeze skirts a show cause. I think he might end up serving a short suspension but that's it. Barney and kiffin will get show causes.

This is my thought as well.

[BrunswickDawg]

A lot of things will be lumped together and a few things will be mitigated or downright throw out and some of u guys are gonna be disappointed. 30 schollies lost over 4 years is very very challenging to overcome within a decade. Not to mention what will likely be a 2 year bowl ban. It's just not gonna be much worse than that. And that's enough to set them back big time for ten years. Also I think freeze skirts a show cause. I think he might end up serving a short suspension but that's it. Barney and kiffin will get show causes.
Except that I saw in an article this week that under the new penalty structure, the COI has accepted 95% of all charges presented by enforcement staff. 95%. That's DOJ level "if you get charged you are guilty".

[Jack Lambert]

I think the NCAA know the penalties already and they will let stick what will needed to be stuck to make it work. I think two year bowl band, suspension of Freeze maybe show cause and lost of 30 scholarships. Also lost of all official on campus visits for two years and four years probation with limited coaches in house visits with a bunch of lawyers and doctors disassociated.

[TUSK]

This is my thought as well.

Ditto.

[CadaverDawg]

A lot of things will be lumped together and a few things will be mitigated or downright throw out and some of u guys are gonna be disappointed. 30 schollies lost over 4 years is very very challenging to overcome within a decade. Not to mention what will likely be a 2 year bowl ban. It's just not gonna be much worse than that. And that's enough to set them back big time for ten years. Also I think freeze skirts a show cause. I think he might end up serving a short suspension but that's it. Barney and kiffin will get show causes.

So they are going to disregard their new matrix in the first case? Then we should be disappointed

[Tripp McNeely]

A lot of things will be lumped together and a few things will be mitigated or downright throw out and some of u guys are gonna be disappointed. 30 schollies lost over 4 years is very very challenging to overcome within a decade. Not to mention what will likely be a 2 year bowl ban. It's just not gonna be much worse than that. And that's enough to set them back big time for ten years. Also I think freeze skirts a show cause. I think he might end up serving a short suspension but that's it. Barney and kiffin will get show causes.

History doesn't tell that story. Wolken tweeted out last week under the new structure, 85% or 95% (I can't remember the number) of allegations across the entire NCAA have not been mitigated down

[Reason2succeed]

I keep seeing "2 year bowl ban" by our fans.....I will be severely disappointed if they only get a 2 year bowl ban. I want every D1 level player to look at that place as a wasteland for the next 10 years. If they can't fully follow the matrix due to the amount of infractions...then the NCAA should makeup for scholly losses with bowl ban years and show causes.

Any penalty to this amount of cheating that allows OM the chance at postseason play within the next 5-6 years at a bare minimum, is getting off light in my opinion.

Not saying it won't be only 2 years...just saying the NCAA failed the bowl ban portion of punishment if it's only 2 years in my opinion

I approve this message. Two years is not nearly enough.

[Reason2succeed]

A lot of things will be lumped together and a few things will be mitigated or downright throw out and some of u guys are gonna be disappointed. 30 schollies lost over 4 years is very very challenging to overcome within a decade. Not to mention what will likely be a 2 year bowl ban. It's just not gonna be much worse than that. And that's enough to set them back big time for ten years. Also I think freeze skirts a show cause. I think he might end up serving a short suspension but that's it. Barney and kiffin will get show causes.

Then OM will be vindicated in continuing to cheat after they were already busted because it was not saying that they got any further penalties. NCAA will look totally spineless and it will be a signal to every rogue program to carry on.

[QuadrupleOption]

A lot of things will be lumped together and a few things will be mitigated or downright throw out and some of u guys are gonna be disappointed. 30 schollies lost over 4 years is very very challenging to overcome within a decade. Not to mention what will likely be a 2 year bowl ban. It's just not gonna be much worse than that. And that's enough to set them back big time for ten years. Also I think freeze skirts a show cause. I think he might end up serving a short suspension but that's it. Barney and kiffin will get show causes.

From the quoted article above:

“The committee will slot a case and figure out the penalties, but the committee has the discretion to depart from the guidelines, which account for mitigating and aggravating factors, if there truly are extraordinary circumstances.”

It sounds to me like the COI can only depart from the guidelines if there are extenuating circumstances surrounding a particular charge. They don't get to make it up as they go along any more. That was the whole point of introducing the matrix to begin with. I truly believe they will end up getting the minimum allowable penalties per charge (the ones that stick), but they WILL get those penalties. And because they have so many charges, it's going to HURT.

[WSOPdawg]

Then OM will be vindicated in continuing to cheat after they were already busted because it was not saying that they got any further penalties. NCAA will look totally spineless and it will be a signal to every rogue program to carry on.

Precedent-setting. IMO this case will NOT be like the NCAA punishments from 2010 and before. The NCAA can't allow that, they've got to make an example out of TCUN or they become irrelevant.

[Homedawg]

The minimum for each Level 1 standard violation is a 12.5% reduction. I'm guessing (because I can't find an actual explanation) that percentage is counted against a full 25 scholarships per year.
If the COI throws out every violation that UM is disputing, they will be hit with a MINIMUM 30 scholarship reduction.
If the COI agrees with the investigation's findings but imposes the MINIMUM penalty in each case, the are looking at 45 scholarships lost. Minimum.


I'm guessing somewhere in the neighborhood of 60 scholarships, show causes for every coach named, and at least a 4 year bowl ban. It should be an 8 year ban, but if they lose 60 scholarships they won't be making a bowl game in the next 10 years anyway so it's a moot point.

Here's hoping some of y'all aren't standing near a bridge when they get the penalties if you are waiting on 60 scholarships.

[GreenheadDawg]

Here's hoping some of y'all aren't standing near a bridge when they get the penalties if you are waiting on 60 scholarships.

You and saltydog have got to be the same person. No way there are 2 people this pessimistic about EVERYTHING

ETA: I actually agree with you though. No chance of 60 scholarships. 40 is max

[preachermatt83]

Here's hoping some of y'all aren't standing near a bridge when they get the penalties if you are waiting on 60 scholarships.

Yup

[blacklistedbully]

Here's hoping some of y'all aren't standing near a bridge when they get the penalties if you are waiting on 60 scholarships.

Don't think most are "waiting on 60". I think we're trying to interpret what the penalty matrix calls for. By the letter-of-the-rule, many of us think it is 60 or more.

If they get at least 30, I'll be fairly happy with what that should do to their program, though a little disappointed if it is not at least 35. I do think it should be more than 35, I'm just stating where I'll be if it's not.

[TUSK]

Yup

<0% chance of 60.

[gravedigger]

A lot of things will be lumped together and a few things will be mitigated or downright throw out and some of u guys are gonna be disappointed. 30 schollies lost over 4 years is very very challenging to overcome within a decade. Not to mention what will likely be a 2 year bowl ban. It's just not gonna be much worse than that. And that's enough to set them back big time for ten years. Also I think freeze skirts a show cause. I think he might end up serving a short suspension but that's it. Barney and kiffin will get show causes.

Ok. Then let's put it your lap. You tell your subordinates this is the penalty for doing x and they exceed it as has been shown. How do you explain why you backed off to subordinates that didn't get caught breaking the rules.

"Come on, you all know That was just hyperbole."?

EVERYONE will expect, and rightly so, a mitigation of penalties to the EXACT OR MORESO because they didn't do what the other subordinate did.

Yea, this calls for a judicious penalty, but the ruling body may not be able to live with the consequences of that any more than the hammer they have to swing.

This is a perfect storm with the perfect oak tree in the way.

May not happen the way I want it to, but either way my team wins.

[Dawgology]

Ok. Then let's put it your lap. You tell your subordinates this is the penalty for doing x and they exceed it as has been shown. How do you explain why you backed off to subordinates that didn't get caught breaking the rules.

"Come on, you all know That was just hyperbole."?

EVERYONE will expect, and rightly so, a mitigation of penalties to the EXACT OR MORESO because they didn't do what the other subordinate did.

Yea, this calls for a judicious penalty, but the ruling body may not be able to live with the consequences of that any more than the hammer they have to swing.

This is a perfect storm with the perfect oak tree in the way.

May not happen the way I want it to, but either way my team wins.

Exactly. If you are the NCAA you have to make a decision between following the rules you created here and sending a clear message or backing off and getting to do this many many more times because smaller schools will see that it's worth it.

[QuadrupleOption]

Here's hoping some of y'all aren't standing near a bridge when they get the penalties if you are waiting on 60 scholarships.

I'm not some OM-obsessed loony who's hanging on every article praying for OM to get hammered. I'm looking at the penalty matrix that the COI is required to follow, I'm looking at the minimum penalties for a level 1 violation, and I'm looking at the sheer number of level 1 violations that OM has either ADMITTED TO or DID NOT CONTEST. Even if the COI throws out every charge that OM is fighting, they are still ****ed as they have 10 Level 1s left on the docket (but yeah it's all about MSU and Leo Lewis).

They can't reduce the penalties to 35 scholarships because they're scared of what'll happen to OM. Unless there are special circumstances surrounding the violation they are required to administer the punishments detailed therein. The only thing that's going to save them is if they can talk their way out of EVERY Level 1 they are contesting. What do you think the chances of that happening are?

This case is not just about OM - it's a litmus test and the opportunity for NCAA enforcement to send a shot across the bow of every P5 school in the country (especially the SEC) that they'd better get their shit cleaned up or they'll be next.

Some of y'all just don't seem to want to believe that they've gotten themselves in a world of hurt. Why should the COI feel sorry for them? Why would the COI not give them exactly what they've EARNED through their actions? Because what? They're afraid the SEC might be inconvenienced? They're afraid of getting sued by OM lawyers? What, they're afraid of derailing a championship football program that everyone in the country loves (that was sarcasm)? They're afraid of the public outpouring of support that UM is going to get from national media (also sarcasm)?

Every prior COI result under the new matrix has resulted in hammering penalties and show causes being handed out like candy at Halloween.

They.

Are.

****ed.

[BrunswickDawg]

I'm not some OM-obsessed loony who's hanging on every article praying for OM to get hammered. I'm looking at the penalty matrix that the COI is required to follow, I'm looking at the minimum penalties for a level 1 violation, and I'm looking at the sheer number of level 1 violations that OM has either ADMITTED TO or DID NOT CONTEST. Even if the COI throws out every charge that OM is fighting, they are still ****ed as they have 10 Level 1s left on the docket (but yeah it's all about MSU and Leo Lewis).

They can't reduce the penalties to 35 scholarships because they're scared of what'll happen to OM. Unless there are special circumstances surrounding the violation they are required to administer the punishments detailed therein. The only thing that's going to save them is if they can talk their way out of EVERY Level 1 they are contesting. What do you think the chances of that happening are?

This case is not just about OM - it's a litmus test and the opportunity for NCAA enforcement to send a shot across the bow of every P5 school in the country (especially the SEC) that they'd better get their shit cleaned up or they'll be next.

Some of y'all just don't seem to want to believe that they've gotten themselves in a world of hurt. Why should the COI feel sorry for them? Why would the COI not give them exactly what they've EARNED through their actions? Because what? They're afraid the SEC might be inconvenienced? They're afraid of getting sued by OM lawyers? What, they're afraid of derailing a championship football program that everyone in the country loves (that was sarcasm)? They're afraid of the public outpouring of support that UM is going to get from national media (also sarcasm)?

Every prior COI result under the new matrix has resulted in hammering penalties and show causes being handed out like candy at Halloween.

They.

Are.

****ed.

https://m.popkey.co/9f6213/7MKka.gif

[preachermatt83]

<0% chance of 60.

Yup

[DownwardDawg]

Yup

30 scollys lost is gonna take years to recover from. Bottom dwellers for 10 years or more.

[WSOPdawg]

I'm not some OM-obsessed loony who's hanging on every article praying for OM to get hammered. I'm looking at the penalty matrix that the COI is required to follow, I'm looking at the minimum penalties for a level 1 violation, and I'm looking at the sheer number of level 1 violations that OM has either ADMITTED TO or DID NOT CONTEST. Even if the COI throws out every charge that OM is fighting, they are still ****ed as they have 10 Level 1s left on the docket (but yeah it's all about MSU and Leo Lewis).

They can't reduce the penalties to 35 scholarships because they're scared of what'll happen to OM. Unless there are special circumstances surrounding the violation they are required to administer the punishments detailed therein. The only thing that's going to save them is if they can talk their way out of EVERY Level 1 they are contesting. What do you think the chances of that happening are?

This case is not just about OM - it's a litmus test and the opportunity for NCAA enforcement to send a shot across the bow of every P5 school in the country (especially the SEC) that they'd better get their shit cleaned up or they'll be next.

Some of y'all just don't seem to want to believe that they've gotten themselves in a world of hurt. Why should the COI feel sorry for them? Why would the COI not give them exactly what they've EARNED through their actions? Because what? They're afraid the SEC might be inconvenienced? They're afraid of getting sued by OM lawyers? What, they're afraid of derailing a championship football program that everyone in the country loves (that was sarcasm)? They're afraid of the public outpouring of support that UM is going to get from national media (also sarcasm)?

Every prior COI result under the new matrix has resulted in hammering penalties and show causes being handed out like candy at Halloween.

They.

Are.

****ed.

Thank you, Quad. Many many many still feel as if TCUN is going to be slapped across the wrist and that will be it allowing "network business" to continue on as normal. That time is quickly coming to an end with TCUN being obliterated: 40+ lost scholarships, 3 to 4 year bowl ban, 5 years probation, show causes across the board. TCUN may very well be wishing they got the DP due to a quicker recovery being allowed.

[gravedigger]

Yup

We'll answer my question then. 60 is within the matrix, but not following it leads to more pain for the NCAA.

Why won't they? History? Or are you saying the dp is too hard too?

[Really Clark?]

We'll answer my question then. 60 is within the matrix, but not following it leads to more pain for the NCAA.

Why won't they? History? Or are you saying the dp is too hard too?

Historically SMU lost 55 with the DP. Even with the matrix I don't think they go that high with just probation. Even if it is significant. The matrix does allow them to inact penalties that are stronger because of written guidelines for them to use but they do still have some discretion. But they have to explain why they deviate from the Matrix

[gravedigger]

Historically SMU lost 55 with the DP. Even with the matrix I don't think they go that high with just probation. Even if it is significant. The matrix does allow them to inact penalties that are stronger because of written guidelines for them to use but they do still have some discretion. But they have to explain why they deviate from the Matrix

Oh, I agree, but failing to follow your own guidelines in the first real instance seems to be bigger than this one case.

What I'm beginning to wonder is if the NCAA changed directions at some point and decided to focus on om and divert away from North Carolina because the om case is a better example of an athletic department going higgledy piggledy.

[Really Clark?]

Oh, I agree, but failing to follow your own guidelines in the first real instance seems to be bigger than this one case.

What I'm beginning to wonder is if the NCAA changed directions at some point and decided to focus on om and divert away from North Carolina because the om case is a better example of an athletic department going higgledy piggledy.

I understand that issue with the guidelines. My biggest point with the matrix guidelines use is how many keep trying to add all of the infractions for individuals with the part of the matrix that deals with the institution penalties. That is not what it was ever intended to do. What those infractions will do is help set the severity of the LOIC and academic fraud portion of the case. With so many different individuals involved you have to assume the LOIC is at least standard and usually aggravated Level 1. That in itself carries substantial penalties. The Fraud will tack on additional penalties to the school. What I want to see is if the HC responsibility charge is significant enough that the COI believes it warrant max or near max penalties of the LOIC to the school because the AD, compliance, and/or administration should have, at least after violations were found while an open investigation was under way, been more diligent with oversight of the program and its head coach. But by and large the infractions committed by the individuals themselves don't cause the school penalties it's what they do and how severe that moves the Failure to Monitor charge to a LOIC and moves the needle from mitigated to standard to aggravated. It is definitely the case for this generation and they are in uncharted territory.

[Reason2succeed]

I'm not some OM-obsessed loony who's hanging on every article praying for OM to get hammered. I'm looking at the penalty matrix that the COI is required to follow, I'm looking at the minimum penalties for a level 1 violation, and I'm looking at the sheer number of level 1 violations that OM has either ADMITTED TO or DID NOT CONTEST. Even if the COI throws out every charge that OM is fighting, they are still ****ed as they have 10 Level 1s left on the docket (but yeah it's all about MSU and Leo Lewis).

They can't reduce the penalties to 35 scholarships because they're scared of what'll happen to OM. Unless there are special circumstances surrounding the violation they are required to administer the punishments detailed therein. The only thing that's going to save them is if they can talk their way out of EVERY Level 1 they are contesting. What do you think the chances of that happening are?

This case is not just about OM - it's a litmus test and the opportunity for NCAA enforcement to send a shot across the bow of every P5 school in the country (especially the SEC) that they'd better get their shit cleaned up or they'll be next.

Some of y'all just don't seem to want to believe that they've gotten themselves in a world of hurt. Why should the COI feel sorry for them? Why would the COI not give them exactly what they've EARNED through their actions? Because what? They're afraid the SEC might be inconvenienced? They're afraid of getting sued by OM lawyers? What, they're afraid of derailing a championship football program that everyone in the country loves (that was sarcasm)? They're afraid of the public outpouring of support that UM is going to get from national media (also sarcasm)?

Every prior COI result under the new matrix has resulted in hammering penalties and show causes being handed out like candy at Halloween.

They.

Are.

****ed.


http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Billy-D_Approves.gif

Plus what do you tell the next program that gets 30 scholarships following the matrix when they've done much les than OM? That is the situation the matrix was meant to address.

I think many of you greatly over estimate the NCAA's concerns about the OM football program.

[BulldogBear]

This is why I think the DP might be on the table. Repeat offender status or not, NCAA doesn't want to scrap the matrix first time out, that wouldn't look good for them. It might come down to ego vs ego and the NCAA holds the cards.

Exactly.

It's easier I think to give the DP (as far as other member instutions swallowing this) than bowl bans lasting more than 4 years and three figure Scholly losses. I think they've been setting up for this.

My personal prediction is the DP is already as good as done. The only question now is whether it will be for 1 season or 2 and what additional restrictions my be applied post mortem.

[phatdog]

The death penalty affects the entire conference negatively. I say no schollys for 2 years and show cause for all named coaches.

[Dawgology]

The death penalty affects the entire conference negatively. I say no schollys for 2 years and show cause for all named coaches.

How does a DP impact the conference MORE than giving a program 35+ scholly loss and multiple year bowlban?? Both will actually impact Ole Miss (and the conference via bowl revenue loss) pretty much the same.

You all are giving Ole Miss WAAAAAAAAY too much credit. They have pissed the NCAA and SEC off (as well as its member institutions). They are 39'ed.

[1bigdawg]

Oh, I agree, but failing to follow your own guidelines in the first real instance seems to be bigger than this one case.

What I'm beginning to wonder is if the NCAA changed directions at some point and decided to focus on om and divert away from North Carolina because the om case is a better example of an athletic department going higgledy piggledy.

UNC happened before the matrix. UNM happened before and after the matrix and after the investigation had begun.

[1bigdawg]

I understand that issue with the guidelines. My biggest point with the matrix guidelines use is how many keep trying to add all of the infractions for individuals with the part of the matrix that deals with the institution penalties. That is not what it was ever intended to do. What those infractions will do is help set the severity of the LOIC and academic fraud portion of the case. With so many different individuals involved you have to assume the LOIC is at least standard and usually aggravated Level 1. That in itself carries substantial penalties. The Fraud will tack on additional penalties to the school. What I want to see is if the HC responsibility charge is significant enough that the COI believes it warrant max or near max penalties of the LOIC to the school because the AD, compliance, and/or administration should have, at least after violations were found while an open investigation was under way, been more diligent with oversight of the program and its head coach. But by and large the infractions committed by the individuals themselves don't cause the school penalties it's what they do and how severe that moves the Failure to Monitor charge to a LOIC and moves the needle from mitigated to standard to aggravated. It is definitely the case for this generation and they are in uncharted territory.

I get what you are saying, but disagree. For example, a coach coordinates with a booster to give a recruit illegal benefits. According to the above, the school was not involved, just the coach and the booster. BUT, they are both representatives of the university so the blame also falls on it. The university itself never actually pays the benefits to the SA.

ULL got probation for the act of one coach who was doing what he did prior to being at ULL because the actions of employees and boosters falls back on the school.

[phatdog]

scheduling

[Reason2succeed]

The scheduling of a DP is pretty simple. OM has to void their contracts and eat the loss and pay any penalties. The crime calls for that type of punishment. The DP is set for 2019-2020 or something like that so all of their opponents can find replacements. It would actually bring a lot of intrigue to the SEC and allow for games we wouldn't otherwise see.

Remember that the SEC and the members of the SEC have a major bone to pick with OM. The SEC was shooting for a clean track record on NCAA compliance and instead OM is dragging the conference back into 1980s and 1990s mud. Georgia and Alabama were also affected by OM's cheating. No one will feel sorry for them. No one wants to see them get off easy other than their fans.

Also, some of you 30 scholarship people need to remember that according to OM they've already taking some of those scholarship hits so 30 won't be as bad as you think. The exact number they've already assessed is in their response I believe.

[jdwhite]

SUPPLEMENT NO. 3A DI Board of Directors 8/12 Page No. 2 _________ Adoption of Penalty Guidelines for Core Penalties As revised, Bylaw 19 would include penalty guidelines clearly specifying core penalties for Level I and II cases.

After determining the appropriate sublevel (aggravation, standard or mitigation) for Level I or II cases, the COI will prescribe a penalty from a range of set penalty guidelines in each of the following areas: (a) competition limitations; (b) financial penalties; (c) scholarship limitations; (d) recruiting limitations; (e) probation; (f) when applicable, show-cause orders. If extenuating circumstances are found, the COI will have discretion to depart from the core penalties. The COI will also retain discretion to apply additional penalties and to consider the impact on student athletes who were not involved in the violation. Although the COI retains some discretion to prescribe the appropriate mix of penalties for a particular case, it is expected that the penalties for these Level I and II cases will be significantly more stringent than those for the current major cases.

Looks like the normal course of action would be to look at the whole case and determine if it rises to Aggravation from Standard. So the punishment would look something like this based on the worse case.

Even if you throw out some of the level 1's there no way their case will not be elevated to Aggravation.

So here's what they face.

Competition Penalties: Postseason Ban: 2-4 years

Financial Penalties: This one is nasty.....
-Fine (5k + 3 to 5 percent of total budget for sport program) That's a 7 figure number.
-Negate revenue from sport program for years in which violations occurred. (Impose this penalty if greater
than percent of budget fine + $5,000) Now were looking at an 8 figure number.

Scholarship Reductions of Involved: (25-50 percent) "21 to 42" (Doesn't say for how long.)

Show-Cause Order: 5 to 10 years for everyone.

Head Coach Restrictions: (game suspensions via show cause.) 50 to 100 percent of season.

Recruiting Visit Restrictions:
-14 to 26 week ban on unofficial visits (No scheduled unofficial visits and no complimentary tickets.
-25 to 50% cuts in official paid visits (Based on the average number provided during the previous 4 years.)
Football: 15 to 28 visits (need to account for unused visits from the previous year, if any)

Recruiting Communication Restrictions: 25 to 50% 14 to 26 week ban on communication with all prospects (No recruits that year)

Off-Campus Recruiting Restrictions: 25 to 50% Sports with no limits: 14- to 26-week ban on all contacts and evaluations
25 to 50% cuts in Recruiting Person Days (RPD) or Evaluation Days (ED)
MFB: 11 to 21 Fall; 44 to 84 Spring (ED)

Probation: 6 to 10 years. No way they or anyone else can keep their nose clean for that long.......

[Pollodawg]

OM knows the pain train is coming. But they've sold their souls to keep Freeze.

[Mimi's Babies]

I get what you are saying, but disagree. For example, a coach coordinates with a booster to give a recruit illegal benefits. According to the above, the school was not involved, just the coach and the booster. BUT, they are both representatives of the university so the blame also falls on it. The university itself never actually pays the benefits to the SA.

ULL got probation for the act of one coach who was doing what he did prior to being at ULL because the actions of employees and boosters falls back on the school.

The coach is an employee of the ath. department of the "said" university. At ULL the coach was caught doing the same thing with the ACT Fraud with 5 students. That is when NCAA went back to OM and started looking.... Has the NCAA investigated the ED Center in Jackson.

[Mimi's Babies]

The impermissible benefits, recruiting violations, etc. fall under the individual(s). Those penalties will fall under what you punish individuals for in the matrix. Show Causes, Suspensions, recruiting visits, etc. It is the number and/or severity of those charges against the individuals that have brought the LOIC charge. The ACT Fraud and LOIC will be the majority of what the school will be punished for in as far as probation, scholarship reduction, postseason ban, financial penalties, etc. The HC Responsibility charge is also tied to the depth and number of staffers who have allegations. Now because of severity and/or number of infractions or being found lying, that is what slides the Level of the infraction through the different aggravated, standard, or mitigated levels. Now because of the number of individuals, staff and boosters, who were committing the most severe violations, I do believe that gets you to the Level 1 aggravated part of the matrix for the LOIC. But the aggravated level is just my guess.

Thanks for the break down.... Please explain what happens for the SA(Student ath.) or the parents/family/friends of the SA that is caught lying to the NCAA?

CadaverDawg a 2 year bowl ban is just the START...

[mstatefan91]

How does the NCAA get to your prediction with matrix?

Like a math problem, this is a problem that requires you to show your work

My line of thinking is that this is all they can do unless they want to do the DP.

It would be ridiculous to hammer them with 80 schollies lost without just basically shutting down the program for a couple of years. I don't see the NCAA doing the DP in this case so they have to make up the lack of schollies lost with other things. Show causes and bowl bans...

This is a guess. For all I know, the NCAA may come out and give them the DP or give them the max of these guidelines. I just doubt it.

[Reason2succeed]

SUPPLEMENT NO. 3A DI Board of Directors 8/12 Page No. 2 _________ Adoption of Penalty Guidelines for Core Penalties As revised, Bylaw 19 would include penalty guidelines clearly specifying core penalties for Level I and II cases.

After determining the appropriate sublevel (aggravation, standard or mitigation) for Level I or II cases, the COI will prescribe a penalty from a range of set penalty guidelines in each of the following areas: (a) competition limitations; (b) financial penalties; (c) scholarship limitations; (d) recruiting limitations; (e) probation; (f) when applicable, show-cause orders. If extenuating circumstances are found, the COI will have discretion to depart from the core penalties. The COI will also retain discretion to apply additional penaltiesand to consider the impact on student athletes who were not involved in the violation. Although the COI retains some discretion to prescribe the appropriate mix of penalties for a particular case, it is expected that the penalties for these Level I and II cases will be significantly more stringent than those for the current major cases.

Great find.

This flies in the face of the 30 scholarship crowd. It looks like the matrix must be followed and that the COI can increase penalties but not decrease unless it is in consideration of other student athletes not involved.

From what I understand when a bowl ban is announced then the other players have freedom to transfer if they choose to. That should release the COI from this bind.

[1bigdawg]

My line of thinking is that this is all they can do unless they want to do the DP.

It would be ridiculous to hammer them with 80 schollies lost without just basically shutting down the program for a couple of years. I don't see the NCAA doing the DP in this case so they have to make up the lack of schollies lost with other things. Show causes and bowl bans...

Under the matrix, I don't believe they can just do a "make up." Show causes are based on the individual's issues. They cannot give one that is undeserving nor can they count giving one to a deserving person as a reason to lessen other penalties. With bowl bans, they are prescribed in the matrix. How can they say, well you deserve an 8 year bowl ban and we are going to give you that and that makes up for not giving you a scholly reduction.

[Really Clark?]

Thanks for the break down.... Please explain what happens for the SA(Student ath.) or the parents/family/friends of the SA that is caught lying to the NCAA?

CadaverDawg a 2 year bowl ban is just the START...

Nothing to the family, friends, etc of a student athlete other than recommending a disassociation from the university. The student athlete, if found lying, will be suspended most likely for some certain amount of time. Dez Bryant was suspended for a year for lying to enforcement when what they were investigating ended up not being a violation at all. If he had told the truth he would have not missed any time and the case would have been dismissed.

[Really Clark?]

Under the matrix, I don't believe they can just do a "make up." Show causes are based on the individual's issues. They cannot give one that is undeserving nor can they count giving one to a deserving person as a reason to lessen other penalties. With bowl bans, they are prescribed in the matrix. How can they say, well you deserve an 8 year bowl ban and we are going to give you that and that makes up for not giving you a scholly reduction.

As long as each institutional penalty for that Level and sublevel falls within that guideline that can weigh them differently. Example, the give the school the min of probation for a Level 1 aggravated, that's 6 years but give a 3 year postseason ban which is in the middle of the 2 year min and 4 year max, they can absolutely do that.

[Mimi's Babies]

I keep seeing "2 year bowl ban" by our fans.....I will be severely disappointed if they only get a 2 year bowl ban. I want every D1 level player to look at that place as a wasteland for the next 10 years. If they can't fully follow the matrix due to the amount of infractions...then the NCAA should makeup for scholly losses with bowl ban years and show causes.

Any penalty to this amount of cheating that allows OM the chance at postseason play within the next 5-6 years at a bare minimum, is getting off light in my opinion.

Not saying it won't be only 2 years...just saying the NCAA failed the bowl ban portion of punishment if it's only 2 years in my opinion


Nothing to the family, friends, etc of a student athlete other than recommending a disassociation from the university. The student athlete, if found lying, will be suspended most likely for some certain amount of time. Dez Bryant was suspended for a year for lying to enforcement when what they were investigating ended up not being a violation at all. If he had told the truth he would have not missed any time and the case would have been dismissed.

This one should be GONE.... money, cars, lying to the NCAA, etc.....

[Really Clark?]

I get what you are saying, but disagree. For example, a coach coordinates with a booster to give a recruit illegal benefits. According to the above, the school was not involved, just the coach and the booster. BUT, they are both representatives of the university so the blame also falls on it. The university itself never actually pays the benefits to the SA.

ULL got probation for the act of one coach who was doing what he did prior to being at ULL because the actions of employees and boosters falls back on the school.

Your example though is putting penalties on the school for the infraction dealing with an individual. That is penalized separately using just the portion of the matrix dealing with individuals. What that infraction is used for however, is to help set the overall level of infraction to the school. The first NOA had the school tagged with Failure to Monitor (Level II) because of the number and severity of the infractions of the case. With the addendum, the enforcement staff moved that charge to LOIC (Level 1) because what was added and the severity. But the school is not penalized by the institutional portion of the matrix for each infraction dealing with individuals.

ULL had 4 infractions total. 3 were directly tied to Saunders and were Level 1's. The other infraction was what they charged the school with (it was also a mitigated infraction) and what they based the penalties on by the matrix. Otherwise, using what many are trying to do by stacking more than what is chargeable to the school, they should have 4 times the penalties they received. Does anybody honestly think they should have received 44 scholarship reductions? 12 years probation and postseason ban that would have to be automatic since Saunders committed some aggravated Level 1 infractions?

[1bigdawg]

[QUOTE=Really Clark?;760993]Your example though is putting penalties on the school for the infraction dealing with an individual. But the school is not penalized by the institutional portion of the matrix for each infraction dealing with individuals. QUOTE]

I hear you, but does that mean the only violation of the school and the only one that can incur bowl bans and scholarship reductions is the LOIC? Every other violation was "done by an individual or group of individuals."

[Really Clark?]

[QUOTE=Really Clark?;760993]Your example though is putting penalties on the school for the infraction dealing with an individual. But the school is not penalized by the institutional portion of the matrix for each infraction dealing with individuals. QUOTE]

I hear you, but does that mean the only violation of the school and the only one that can incur bowl bans and scholarship reductions is the LOIC? Every other violation was "done by an individual or group of individuals."

The ACT Fraud issue also has to do with amateurism and ineligible student athletes and happened outside of the matrix so that could also add to the institutional penalties. I am also interested to see if the HC responsibility charge sticks, the Level it is final determined to be at (mitigated, standard, aggravated) and if they also either add to penalties because of lack of department oversite or if it moves the LOIC penalties higher or if they keep it seperate. It's the first major case with that also as part of the charges.

And I am not saying that the other individual charges don't or can't move the needle on the penalties, but those charges are taken as a whole to determine the level of the schools infraction and penalty.

[Mimi's Babies]

Really Clark? Thanks for your information.... I wish that we could take all of the questions and answers and post them on one page. Your answers have answered questions and have made the new matrix much easier to understand... Thank You very much... Mimi




You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Really Clark? again. REALLY??????????/

[BB30]

Exactly. If you are the NCAA you have to make a decision between following the rules you created here and sending a clear message or backing off and getting to do this many many more times because smaller schools will see that it's worth it.

I think you will see them drop some of the violations to cover them when they only hand out 30 scholly losses and a 3 year bowl ban.

That being said that is more than enough to set them back 10+ years.