SEC baseball tie-breakers

[blacklistedbully]

In case any of you are wondering...following are the tie-breaker rules for the SEC Baseball Tourney:

The two division champions shall be automatically seeded number one and number two based on winning percentage in conference competition. The rest shall be seeded numbers three through 12 based on winning percentage without regard to division.

Ties will be broken in the following manner:

1. Two-Team Tie. The following procedure will be used in the following order until the tie is broken:

A. Won-lost results of head-to-head competition between the two tied teams.

B. If two-teams are divisional opponents:
(1) Won-lost percentage within their division (over the 18-game SEC division schedule).
(2) Won-lost percentage of the two teams versus the No. 1 team in their division (and proceeding through the No. 7 team, if necessary).

C. If two teams are not divisional opponents:
(1) Won-lost record of the two teams versus the No. 1 seed using common opponents only (and proceeding through the No. 12 seed, if necessary).
(2) Coin flip by the Commissioner

2. Three-Team Tie (or more). The following procedure will be used in the following order until the tie is broken: (Note: If the three tied teams have three different records against each other, they shall be seeded in best-percentage order.) Otherwise, once the tie has been reduced to two teams, the two-team tiebreaker procedure will be used.

A. If all three teams are common opponents: Total won-lost percentage of games played among the tied teams.

B. Won-lost percentage of the tied teams versus the No. 1 seed and proceeding through the No. 12 seed, if necessary, using common opponents only.

C. If three or more teams still are tied, the Commissioner will conduct a draw.

[smootness]

So it looks like it would be the record against the highest-seeded common opponent...which is still to be decided. If it's UK or LSU, we'll probably have to keep going since we'll likely both have the same results there if we end up tied. Oddly enough, we would win if it's Auburn because they swept UF. Can't be Arkansas or A&M because Florida didn't play them. Both went 2-1 against SC. Both swept Ole Miss.

So it would likely be us getting the 1 because of our 1-2 Auburn series.

[MarketingBully]

So it looks like it would be the record against the highest-seeded common opponent...which is still to be decided. If it's UK or LSU, we'll probably have to keep going since we'll likely both have the same results there if we end up tied. Oddly enough, we would win if it's Auburn because they swept UF. Can't be Arkansas or A&M because Florida didn't play them. Both went 2-1 against SC. Both swept Ole Miss.

So it would likely be us getting the 1 because of our 1-2 Auburn series.

That would be funny if it came down to our's and Florida's head to head vs Auburn. I would laugh.

[blacklistedbully]

So it looks like it would be the record against the highest-seeded common opponent...which is still to be decided. If it's UK or LSU, we'll probably have to keep going since we'll likely both have the same results there if we end up tied. Oddly enough, we would win if it's Auburn because they swept UF. Can't be Arkansas or A&M because Florida didn't play them. Both went 2-1 against SC. Both swept Ole Miss.

So it would likely be us getting the 1 because of our 1-2 Auburn series.

If UK turns out to be the tie-breaker..we win unless UF sweeps them. If UF sweeps them, UF wins. (We are 2-0 vs UK, and UF plays a 3-game set at end of regular season).

Of course, if UF sweeps UK, there's a good chance UK won't be the tie-breaker.

If LSU is the tiebreaker, we'd have to sweep them to win it that way, as UF took 2 of 3 from LSU. But if we swept LSU, odds are they would not be the tie-breaker.

Auburn is a full game behind LSU, so I'm guessing AU would have to take that series at LSU to have a good chance to finish ahead of LSU.

[smootness]

If UK turns out to be the tie-breaker..we win unless UF sweeps them. If UF sweeps them, UF wins. (We are 2-0 vs UK, and UF plays a 3-game set at end of regular season).

Of course, if UF sweeps UK, there's a good chance UK won't be the tie-breaker.

If LSU is the tiebreaker, we'd have to sweep them to win it that way, as UF took 2 of 3 from LSU. But if we swept LSU, odds are they would not be the tie-breaker.

Auburn is a full game behind LSU, so I'm guessing AU would have to take that series at LSU to have a good chance to finish ahead of LSU.

? We are 2-1 against Kentucky.

And my point was exactly yours, which is that if we end up tied with Florida, it is likely we will both have the same record in that last series (probably 2-1). Which would mean we would both have the same record against Kentucky and the same record against LSU. Beyond those two, the most likely team to end up deciding the tiebreaker would be Auburn, since Florida doesn't play Arkansas or A&M, we don't play Vandy, and we both have the same record against SC and OM already.

[SaintDawg]

http://gifs.joelglovier.com/complicated/Its-complicated.gif

[blacklistedbully]

? We are 2-1 against Kentucky.

And my point was exactly yours, which is that if we end up tied with Florida, it is likely we will both have the same record in that last series (probably 2-1). Which would mean we would both have the same record against Kentucky and the same record against LSU. Beyond those two, the most likely team to end up deciding the tiebreaker would be Auburn, since Florida doesn't play Arkansas or A&M, we don't play Vandy, and we both have the same record against SC and OM already.

Like I said...If UF sweeps UK, they will have a better winning % vs UK. But if they sweep UK, what are the odds UK will even be the tie-breaker?

My larger point is that there are too many scenarios at this point to even hazard a good guess.

Trying to decide who to "pull for" is tricky at best, as it could backfire. Just a little crazy.

Easiest potential tiebreaker is to pull for us to be in a 2-way tie with UK. If not that, then a 2-way tie with UF if they lose the series to UK, or a 2-way tie with LSU if we win that series.

Only ones we lose are ties with LSU in which they win our upcoming series, Auburn, and UF, if the tie-breaker is LSU (if they win our series) or UK (if they sweep UK and UK is still best record common opponent).

[smootness]

Like I said...If UF sweeps UK, they will have a better winning % vs UK. But if they sweep UK, what are the odds UK will even be the tie-breaker?

My larger point is that there are too many scenarios at this point to even hazard a good guess.

Trying to decide who to "pull for" is tricky at best, as it could backfire. Just a little crazy.

Easiest potential tiebreaker is to pull for us to be in a 2-way tie with UK. If not that, then a 2-way tie with UF if they lose the series to UK, or a 2-way tie with LSU if we win that series.

Only ones we lose are ties with LSU in which they win our upcoming series, Auburn, and UF, if the tie-breaker is LSU (if they win our series) or UK (if they sweep UK and UK is still best record common opponent).

You said we are 2-0 against UK and that we win the tiebreaker unless UF sweeps them...but if they go 2-1, then we're equal there and have to move onto the next team. Because we're actually 2-1 against UK.

But there really aren't that many scenarios. It's going to either be UK or LSU (and you're right that if we or UF sweeps one of them, we likely won't be tied anyway), or, if we end up with the same record against those two, it's going to be Auburn. Those are the scenarios.

This is assuming we tie with Florida. It's hard to envision a scenario where we tie with anyone else.

[blacklistedbully]

You said we are 2-0 against UK and that we win the tiebreaker unless UF sweeps them...but if they go 2-1, then we're equal there and have to move onto the next team. Because we're actually 2-1 against UK.

But there really aren't that many scenarios. It's going to either be UK or LSU (and you're right that if we or UF sweeps one of them, we likely won't be tied anyway), or, if we end up with the same record against those two, it's going to be Auburn. Those are the scenarios.

This is assuming we tie with Florida. It's hard to envision a scenario where we tie with anyone else.

Yeah, not sure how I came up with 2-0 vs UK. Brain-fart by me. But I do still say there are too many scenarios. You have to consider what happens with AU, UK, UF, & LSU in particular can make this change quickly, depending on what we do.

For instance...it might seem logical for us to root for AU to take 2 or 3 from LSU, since LSU is just one game behind us. But if AU, by closing strong, makes up the 2-game gap we have, they win on the tie-breaker.

Say AU wins 2 of 3 from LSU, then sweeps UNM at home to close 5-1. If we win 2 of 3 from UGA, then lose 2 of 3 to UF, AU wins the tiebreaker.

I, for one, do not want to rely on UNM to take one from AU. The above scenario is not at all far-fetched.

Now, if LSU takes 2 of 3 from AU, and we take 2 of 3 from UGA, then LSU takes 2 of 3 from us...LSU wins.

[blacklistedbully]

If UK sweeps UT, then wins 2 of 3 from UF, we'd need to win at least 4 of our 6 to beat out UK. Another not-so-far-fetched scenario.

If UF sweeps Bama and takes 2 of 3 from UK, we'd have to win 5 of our 6 and hope AU is the tie-breaker (or LSU if we sweep them).

If UF takes 2 of 3 from Bama, then sweeps UK, we'd have to hope UK is not the tie-breaker.

[smootness]

Yeah, not sure how I came up with 2-0 vs UK. Brain-fart by me. But I do still say there are too many scenarios. You have to consider what happens with AU, UK, UF, & LSU in particular can make this change quickly, depending on what we do.

For instance...it might seem logical for us to root for AU to take 2 or 3 from LSU, since LSU is just one game behind us. But if AU, by closing strong, makes up the 2-game gap we have, they win on the tie-breaker.

Say AU wins 2 of 3 from LSU, then sweeps UNM at home to close 5-1. If we win 2 of 3 from UGA, then lose 2 of 3 to UF, AU wins the tiebreaker.

I, for one, do not want to rely on UNM to take one from AU. The above scenario is not at all far-fetched.

Now, if LSU takes 2 of 3 from AU, and we take 2 of 3 from UGA, then LSU takes 2 of 3 from us...LSU wins.

Yeah, I was specifically talking about scenarios in which we are tied with UF, since that is the most likely.

If we finish 3-3 in conference, it is extremely unlikely we win the conference under any scenario. Auburn might be able to tie us there, but UF would almost certainly finish ahead of us anyway.

There are a lot of possibilities, but it is pretty unlikely we finish worse than 4-2. If we do that, the only team likely to finish even with or ahead of us is Florida.

[smootness]

And honestly, I'm not all that concerned with who gets the 1 seed if we tie Florida for the conference title. I would happily accept the co-championship.