Severe weather Wednesday

[starkvegasdawg]

The SPC just issued a moderate risk for severe storms for this afternoon and evening. Main threat area looks to be southern AR, northern LA, and extreme west central MS. In this area severe storms capable of producing tornadoes are expected to develop. Some of these could be strong. As they advance east into MS the thinking is that they should trend towards more of a wind/hail threat, but some models are trying to keep the tornado threat into east central MS so everyone needs to stay weather aware tomorrow afternoon and evening.

http://i.imgur.com/GEP1GS6.jpg

[msbulldog]

Thanks Vegas, I'm in that borderline 10% - 15% zone.

[starkvegasdawg]

I just had a chance to look at things this morning so here is my uneducated opinion. The SPC is saying wind profiles strongly favor supercells. The NWS office is saying squall line. Looking at the models this morning one was showing a solid squall line and the others were showing a broken line with supercells embedded in it. If the storm mode is for discrete/semi-discrete supercells then I think we may have several tornadoes in the moderate risk area before the system evolves into a big heavy rain mess as it moves into MS during the overnight hours. That said, if you live west of I-55 I would stay aware with this system. Some of the forecast soundings I have looked at over in AR look very favorable for significant severe weather. Just have to see how this plays out. Last two systems that have come in with some hype and promise have busted. Unless something drastic changes, I have plans on being in Arkansas this afternoon and following the storms back east.

[TheRef]

From what I could see, I think this will be a squall line/QLCS event. With that being said, I wouldn't rule out a couple of pre-frontal cells firing off and causing some havoc. The main threats, IMO, are straight line winds and 1.5" hail. Now it's a bit higher of a tornado threat than your usual squall line event, but don't go around expecting an outbreak. SVD, I think you'll need to watch the dry line. You find the dry line, you find the storms.

[starkvegasdawg]

From what I could see, I think this will be a squall line/QLCS event. With that being said, I wouldn't rule out a couple of pre-frontal cells firing off and causing some havoc. The main threats, IMO, are straight line winds and 1.5" hail. Now it's a bit higher of a tornado threat than your usual squall line event, but don't go around expecting an outbreak. SVD, I think you'll need to watch the dry line. You find the dry line, you find the storms.

Yeah, there is some discrepancy between the SPC and NWS offices. Here is what the SPC says:


Shear profiles strongly favor supercells, though mid-level height falls and slightly backed mid-level flow could eventually lead to a more complex MCS as the trough ejects toward the Mid-south after dark. Very large hail could accompany the supercells across the Arklatex region and tornadoes appear possible.

Looking at the composite radars, I saw most are favoring a broken QLCS and I am thinking that is where the tornado threat comes in. But if we get some pre-frontal storms then they are going to go crazy I think with the set up for today.