Gameday Forecast: Week 3 at Auburn

[TheRef]

Good morning to all of you here at EliteDawgs.com. I'm going to give y'all a weekly GameDay forecast from 2 days before the game. So let's look at this week's game at Auburn, AL. Looking at the early morning for Saturday, it looks like the cold front will have pushed through the area, so expect temperatures to be slightly cooler in the morning as some of us will be waking up in Auburn or driving towards Auburn. We will have mostly Cold Air Advection coming into the area so don't expect a super strong chance for storms as we head into the evening. Looking at the vorticity and upward vertical velocity charts for game time, the air seems very stable so that strengthens my belief that it will not rain on gameday in Auburn, AL. Now looking at the temperatures, by kickoff, temperatures should be fairly comfortable in the mid to upper 60's. Dropping down steadily to the low-60's by the time we get out of the game. Winds will be light (around 5 mph) out of the NE. So dress accordingly, and Hail State.

[FISHDAWG]

ED's very own Meteorologist ... give the man his official title. Nicely done and wear long sleeves to the game

[DownwardDawg]

Very nice. This adds a lot to the site. I love meteorology! I watch the tropical sites like a hawk during hurricane season.

[TheRef]

Glad to help the site gain another piece. Speaking of the tropics, it doesn't look like we will be effected by the disturbances or Humberto and Gabrielle. Hooray!!!

[DownwardDawg]

Glad to help the site gain another piece. Speaking of the tropics, it doesn't look like we will be effected by the disturbances or Humberto and Gabrielle. Hooray!!!

Not hooray!! Boooooo! I work offshore so I love storms. Get paid to sit at the house and watch tv. Plus, I have a big house in Covington County for sale. I need another "big scare" to get some buyers looking north!

[TheRef]

Not hooray!! Boooooo! I work offshore so I love storms. Get paid to sit at the house and watch tv. Plus, I have a big house in Covington County for sale. I need another "big scare" to get some buyers looking north!

Well in that case, it might until October or so until we will start really getting hammered over here. FL sees their most landfalls during the month of October. So if September is still quiet, there's a lot of hope for October.

[Political Hack]

this is going to be awesome for baseball season too.

Auburn: "IT'S NOT GONNA RAIN."

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XJxnfiiCJKU&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DXJxnfiiCJKU#

[TheRef]

this is going to be awesome for baseball season too.

Auburn: "IT'S NOT GONNA RAIN."

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XJxnfiiCJKU&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DXJxnfiiCJKU#

Another reason why I'm not doing broadcast. :)

[Beaver]

Now looking at the temperatures, by kickoff, temperatures should be fairly comfortable in the mid to upper 60's. Dropping down steadily to the low-60's by the time we get out of the game. Winds will be light (around 5 mph) out of the NE. So dress accordingly, and Hail State.

Mid-to upper 60's at kickoff? I don't buy it. Cold front isn't that strong. GFS has a tendency to overdue CAA if that's what your basing your forecast off of. It'll be in the Upper 70's if not 80 degrees at kickoff dropping to the lower 70's by the game's end. Dewpoints in the upper 50's/lower 60's will feel great though.

[FISHDAWG]

OK ... someone take a thermometer to the game ... record game time conditions , wind speed & direction ....... the competition for ED official meteor man is ON !!!
winner between these two gets the job

[TheRef]

Mid-to upper 60's at kickoff? I don't buy it. Cold front isn't that strong. GFS has a tendency to overdue CAA if that's what your basing your forecast off of. It'll be in the Upper 70's if not 80 degrees at kickoff dropping to the lower 70's by the game's end. Dewpoints in the upper 50's/lower 60's will feel great though.

I was using the NAM. But regardless, I will do an update tomorrow since the closer we are to the forecast date, the better the forecast.

[slickdawg]

I'm gonna stick with what I said the other day:

Models look like a dry cool front comes through on Friday afternoon, highs Saturday in the mid 80's, lows in the mid 60's, so kickoff should be 80-ish or so. All the upper level energy will remain in the great lakes, and there's not a lot of moisture to work with.


I suspect temps in the low/mid 70's by games end.

[Bullmutt]

Last thing I need is another storm on the FL gulf coast, with two condos that have already taken huge hits due to general economy, but even moreso due to media hype the last few years of oil spill (w-a-a-y-y overblown)/hurricanes. I'm dyin' here!

[Political Hack]

I'm giving 2 to 1 odds in VCash on Slick being right.

[RunDog26]

Sounds like excellent sweater vest weather.

[FISHDAWG]

we need a bet on this in the casino .... game time kick-off temp - I'm taking the over on mid to upper 60's or the under on 80 degrees

[FlabLoser]

Let's think about this.

We could have an elite prediction thread - weather predictions, attendance predictions (now with home & away!), score predictions. Maybe put this stuff into vcash betting.

[TheRef]

When I get back to my apartment I will be able to give an updated forecast. May be little consolation for y'all but it's the best I can do. I will update again tomorrow morning. The models aren't handling this system very well as far as how far South the front will stretch. My reasoning behind putting such low temperature values is that I believe the back swath of temperatures will be able to widen out enough that it will affect the Auburn campus. The big question will be how far South this front goes. That will be a big factor in determining how cold it will be behind the front.

[Barking 13]

don't sweat it dude... I just usually use my weather rock..;)

[TheRef]

don't sweat it dude... I just usually use my weather rock..;)

I know. I just felt like I didn't explain myself enough during the initial discussion so I decided to elaborate on my thought process. I'm used to people critiquing my forecasts and I welcome it. It's always good to hear from those who read my forecast. To those who gave their own forecasts, good luck and may the best forecast win. :)

[Barking 13]

so far everything you've said makes sense, though...

[Original48]

To those who gave their own forecasts, good luck and may the best forecast win. :)
http://youtu.be/HUIJiFrlI3g

[TheRef]

http://youtu.be/HUIJiFrlI3g

Just saying, that's not how you measure snowfall. To accurately measure snowfall, you use something like a trampoline or a table. Something solid for the snow to sit on. If you use the ground, the ruler can go deeper than ground level. But I digress, I see what you did there and it made me chuckle.

[Original48]

Just saying, that's not how you measure snowfall. To accurately measure snowfall, you use something like a trampoline or a table. Something solid for the snow to sit on. If you use the ground, the ruler can go deeper than ground level. But I digress, I see what you did there and it made me chuckle.

http://youtu.be/bJ8bynNwJ2w

[TheRef]

Middle of the night bump and update:
Okay...so after looking through everything again here is what I have come up with. I'm going to go more towards the NAM than the GFS on this forecast. There is absolutely no CAA/WAA to speak of for Auburn, AL at kickoff. UVV's and DPVA are low also. I am bumping up temperatures for kickoff to the low-70's due to the front not quite extending as far South as originally thought (remember, forecasting is an ongoing process until it happens). Temperatures should slowly decline as the game goes on. At 10 PM, which would be a good time to determine what the temperature will be towards the end of the day, I say that the temperatures will be in the mid-60's. So here are some numbers with a bit of lee-way built in. Kickoff: 72. Final Horn: 66. Chance of precipitation: 0%. Take it as you wish.

[Barking 13]

it rained here this morning... my rock was wet.... ;)

[FISHDAWG]

well my bad knee isn't hurting so we have that going for us

[TheRef]

Early morning update:
Happy Friday, Bulldog fans! This week’s matchup is between the Tigers of Auburn University (2-0) and the Bulldogs of Mississippi State University (1-1). With the game being played in Auburn, many fans will be driving over either later today or early in the morning tomorrow. The kickoff is at approx. 6:00 PM CDT, so I will call the forecast for that time. I will forecast post-game conditions for 10:00 CDT to give a fair amount of time for fans to linger after the game. So without further adieu, let’s get right into it.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2013/09/13/12/NAM_221_2013091312_F24_WSPD_250_MB.png

What we have here is the 250 mb wind chart for 7:00 AM Saturday morning. As you can see, the trough has already passed Auburn, AL so we have cool Northerly winds aloft which leads to sinking air and stable conditions at the surface. Both the GFS and the NAM have the trough past Auburn by this time so I agree with this assessment, more changes may have to come after the 12Z NAM run completes. At midday, the trough continues to move through and the trend of sinking air and cooler temperatures will continue throughout the day.

At the 500 mb level, where we look at vorticity, there is no DPVA to speak of at 7:00 PM, which is good for all of you football fans out there. This means that the environment is not favorable for the formation of storms in the area of Auburn tomorrow night.

Onto the 700 mb level, where we will look for Upward Vertical Velocities or UVVs. UVVs are also non-existant for the 7:00 PM timeframe. This spells good news for clear or very few clouds.

At the 850 mb level, there is some weak CAA coming into the area so everything should be fairly stable for the game environment.

Temperatures will be around 73 to begin the game and will drop to around 68 at the end. Winds coming from the ENE at 5 mph.

[slickdawg]

Weather porn, I LOVE IT!

[TheRef]

Is this what type of format you would like the forecast to be in or do I need to simplify it more?

[hometowndawg]

Yeah you for sure need to simplify it for us. We dont need all the yata yata(matchup is between, etc.) just give it to us plain and simple. Dumb it down for us. You know that MSU is an engineering and business school, not meteorology school.

[DownwardDawg]

Early morning update:
Happy Friday, Bulldog fans! This week’s matchup is between the Tigers of Auburn University (2-0) and the Bulldogs of Mississippi State University (1-1). With the game being played in Auburn, many fans will be driving over either later today or early in the morning tomorrow. The kickoff is at approx. 6:00 PM CDT, so I will call the forecast for that time. I will forecast post-game conditions for 10:00 CDT to give a fair amount of time for fans to linger after the game. So without further adieu, let’s get right into it.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2013/09/13/12/NAM_221_2013091312_F24_WSPD_250_MB.png

What we have here is the 250 mb wind chart for 7:00 AM Saturday morning. As you can see, the trough has already passed Auburn, AL so we have cool Northerly winds aloft which leads to sinking air and stable conditions at the surface. Both the GFS and the NAM have the trough past Auburn by this time so I agree with this assessment, more changes may have to come after the 12Z NAM run completes. At midday, the trough continues to move through and the trend of sinking air and cooler temperatures will continue throughout the day.

At the 500 mb level, where we look at vorticity, there is no DPVA to speak of at 7:00 PM, which is good for all of you football fans out there. This means that the environment is not favorable for the formation of storms in the area of Auburn tomorrow night.

Onto the 700 mb level, where we will look for Upward Vertical Velocities or UVVs. UVVs are also non-existant for the 7:00 PM timeframe. This spells good news for clear or very few clouds.

At the 850 mb level, there is some weak CAA coming into the area so everything should be fairly stable for the game environment.

Temperatures will be around 73 to begin the game and will drop to around 68 at the end. Winds coming from the ENE at 5 mph.

That's all I understood. It sure looks sexy though!