Thursday Sever Weather

[starkvegasdawg]

To sum it up in two words...buckle up.

Tomorrow has the potential to be a big time day weather wise. The one limiting factor they thought might dampen it down - coastal storm development - is not looking to not happen at all or not happen in any meaningful manner. Therefore, severe storms are expected to develop tomorrow afternoon over the upper delta region and then move east and south. The SPC has already included much of north MS in a moderate risk for tomorrow. Here is their exact wording and graphic:


A strong mid-level speed max (50+ knots at 700mb) will rotate across the cold front during the afternoon, promoting strong low-level and deep layer vertical shear profiles. Forecast soundings show 0-3km SRH values of 200-300 m2/s2 and MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg. Several 00z cam solutions that extend into the Day2 period indicate discrete supercell mode will be preferred with the activity, suggesting a favorable environment for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. Strong tornadoes and very large hail will be possible in the MDT risk area.




Depending on the model, storms are expected to develop anytime from 2:00-7:00. These will quickly go severe and some will go tornadic. There is a chance those of you in western MS may see some severe weather around daybreak tomorrow but those storms will quickly weaken before these new ones redevelop.

I'll be posting here today on this as new information comes in and will try to answer any questions. Hopefully, Ref and others more knowledgeable will also chime in as well. Tomorrow, I will be out trying to see how close I can get to these storms and probably won't be able to post much. For those interested, I may be able to get a live stream up and going if I can get my camera stabilized enough and remain in an area of strong enough signal. If I am able to stream, it will appear on the facebook sight for North MS Storm Chasers and Spotters. You can like the page and that should send you an update if I go live. I have a secondary option of streaming over my personal twitter account if all else fails. Just see what tomorrow brings.

[Bully13]

We got hammered last night in ft worth. Swing set demolished, neighbors fence down, lots of damage all over n. TX. Sirens blasting.

[SaintDawg]

What can you forecast for the Central MS area (Hinds, Madison, Rankin)? Local news weather guys say it's a slow moving front and some places could get popped 2-3 times.

And did you mean 2 am to 7 am or 2 pm to 7 pm?

[starkvegasdawg]

What can you forecast for the Central MS area (Hinds, Madison, Rankin)? Local news weather guys say it's a slow moving front and some places could get popped 2-3 times.

And did you mean 2 am to 7 am or 2 pm to 7 pm?

Right now....I stress right now...it looks like the further north you are the worse it could be. The Jackson area could certainly see some severe weather, though, including tornadoes and large hail. My thinking the timing is 2:00pm to 7:00pm. There will be a morning round of storms but as they cross the river they should weaken, but if you are in AR or LA and perhaps the western MS delta then you need to have a way to get warnings overnight as these could pose a significant severe threat, too, for those areas. If nothing changes from the way things look currently, I am considering staging around the Grenada area tomorrow and see when and where things develop, unless I decide to leave earlier and try to catch the tail end of the morning round over near the river.

[SaintDawg]

Right now....I stress right now...it looks like the further north you are the worse it could be. The Jackson area could certainly see some severe weather, though, including tornadoes and large hail. My thinking the timing is 2:00pm to 7:00pm. There will be a morning round of storms but as they cross the river they should weaken, but if you are in AR or LA and perhaps the western MS delta then you need to have a way to get warnings overnight as these could pose a significant severe threat, too, for those areas. If nothing changes from the way things look currently, I am considering staging around the Grenada area tomorrow and see when and where things develop, unless I decide to leave earlier and try to catch the tail end of the morning round over near the river.

So stay vigilant statewide. The whole of MS is in the crosshairs.

[starkvegasdawg]

So stay vigilant statewide. The whole of MS is in the crosshairs.

To play it safe, yes. But off the record if I was south of I-20 I might could relax a little bit.

[SignalToNoise]

For the middle TN/Nashville dawgs, stay vigilant. We are expected to get two waves of storms, the first in the AM and the second wave coming at evening rush hour and bringing some nasty stuff with it.
Stay safe, ya'll.

https://nashvillesevereweather.com/2017/03/29/significant-severe-event-possible-thursday/

[starkvegasdawg]

I have to say after the latest model information I'm not nearly as impressed for MS. Not saying nothing will happen, but it looks like it may be confined more to east MS. Tornado threat also not looking as pronounced. It appears coastal convection may kill a lot of potential.

[biscuit]

What about Desoto-Memphis area? Thanks for the updates!

[starkvegasdawg]

What about Desoto-Memphis area? Thanks for the updates!

May see some storms tonight, but tomorrow may not be that bad if current thinking holds.

[CrosscityDawg]

Corinth?

[RocketDawg]

There's a tornado watch for much of western Mississippi, basically south of Greenville and west of I-55. Goes until 3 a.m.

[starkvegasdawg]

Corinth?

If there's a best area for severe storms in MS I'd say Corinth would be in that area. But as stated earlier, coastal convection may kill everything. The next round of model updates should start coming in the next hour or so. I'll give my thoughts after I look at those.

[CrosscityDawg]

Thanks for the info! Gotta love this time of year. Watched a tornado Monday come within a mile of my house.

[Boodawg]

Madison?

[WSOPdawg]

I hear major thunder and lightening is about to rain down on Oxford.

[starkvegasdawg]

I'm very close to calling tomorrow a bust. We may still see some severe weather, but I don't think it's going to be near what was expected just this morning.

[DancingRabbit]

I hear major thunder and lightening is about to rain down on Oxford.

What about brimstone?

[WSOPdawg]

What about brimstone?

Not to hijack this thread, but ohhhhh, that's goooooo-o-o-o-o-d Rabbit.

[ScoobaDawg]

I'm very close to calling tomorrow a bust. We may still see some severe weather, but I don't think it's going to be near what was expected just this morning.

Careful with the bust word...


James Spann‏ (https://twitter.com/spann)Verified account @spann (https://twitter.com/spann) 7m7 minutes ago (https://twitter.com/spann/status/847279436051251200)More



Still uncertainty concerning tomorrow evening’s severe weather threat. Watching new data arriving now.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C8IkJoGUIAIifbh.jpg

[Maroon Wizardry]

one needs to be gentle and caressing the bust it can often be a handful

[MaxedOutMaroon]

I see things are questionable tmrw. But I'm driving from Pontotoc to Ridgeland tmrw between 1-5. Is it a safer bet to head over to I55 at Grenada or hit the trace and be ok with sparing a few minutes?

[starkvegasdawg]

I see things are questionable tmrw. But I'm driving from Pontotoc to Ridgeland tmrw between 1-5. Is it a safer bet to head over to I55 at Grenada or hit the trace and be ok with sparing a few minutes?
If we get any storms, that would be the time. The potentially clearer route could well be I-55. Storms that develop will need longer to go severe and that could push them further east before doing so.

[ScoobaDawg]

Keith Gibson‏ @WeatherManKG (https://twitter.com/WeatherManKG) Follow

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12:07 AM - last frame of the recent run of HRRR model suggests developing storms by mid afternoon Thursday. We'll see what fires up!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C8JELSTUIAAtC9N.jpg

[ScoobaDawg]

New Day 1 SPC out. Enhanced for most of the State of MS

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C8JRZK4VYAAABXE.jpg:large

[Reunion Dog]

good stuff guys... thunderstorms in Madison going on now....

[TheRef]

Looking at the latest model runs, if the sun stays out like i think it will after this first line passes, we are all going to have to be looking to prepare as much as possible. Discrete cell formation will make everything go today. If we get discrete cells in MS and they stay separated for a few hours, that will make a huge impact. I'm already expecting some fairly large hail (up to hen egg size), but depending on the post-line setup and when the cap breaks, that could increase. Tornado threat will be determined by how low the cloud base is. The lower the cloud base, the higher the possibility for storms.

Note to those chasing: There will be a fairly large contingent of people chasing today from the area. Give plenty of room between yourself and other chasers. We've already lost 3 this year, let's not lose any more for stupid stuff. I'll be in an Emergency management course all day, so I won't be able to do updates very much.

[starkvegasdawg]

I brought my stuff to work just in case those discrete cells fire, but I'm not nearly as fired up as I was this time yesterday. Hope you're right Ref and I am dead wrong on thinking this may be more a wind and hail event than tornado event. Either way, looks like I get to save most of a day of vacation and chase close to home regardless. Maybe I'll be one of the 50 chasers trying to get on the Hwy45 Alt bridge at Okolona for a view back to the west.

[RocketDawg]

Some school systems in northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee have decided to close for the day because of the severe threat. That's becoming fairly common practice now, I think largely due to the deaths a few years ago in a high school near Dothan, Alabama, when it was hit by a large tornado. Better safe than sorry.

[starkvegasdawg]

Some school systems in northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee have decided to close for the day because of the severe threat. That's becoming fairly common practice now, I think largely due to the deaths a few years ago in a high school near Dothan, Alabama, when it was hit by a large tornado. Better safe than sorry.

I still remember going in the hallway and putting my hands over the back of my head. In later years we called it the put your ass in the air and kiss it goodbye position.

[Martianlander]

Thanks for keeping us posted!

[PMDawg]

I brought my stuff to work just in case those discrete cells fire, but I'm not nearly as fired up as I was this time yesterday. Hope you're right Ref and I am dead wrong on thinking this may be more a wind and hail event than tornado event. Either way, looks like I get to save most of a day of vacation and chase close to home regardless. Maybe I'll be one of the 50 chasers trying to get on the Hwy45 Alt bridge at Okolona for a view back to the west.

Hopefully I'm just reading this wrong, but it sounds like you're pulling for life altering (or even ending) weather just so you can play around and get a rise out of it. Personally, I hope this all fizzles out and no one gets hurt.

[Hrdawg82]

what is the Corinth area looking like with the newer models? I am over a factory and am wondering if I should send them home after the first shift around 2:00pm. What are your thoughts?

[TimberBeast]

Right now it looks like the Coast is in line to get hit hard, is that the case? It looks like everything is down in South Louisiana headed towards South Mississippi.

[starkvegasdawg]

Hopefully I'm just reading this wrong, but it sounds like you're pulling for life altering (or even ending) weather just so you can play around and get a rise out of it. Personally, I hope this all fizzles out and no one gets hurt.

I know it sounds like that, but I really don't mean it that way. First, I will admit I love seeing tornadoes and severe weather. It is a huge adrenaline rush. I can't deny that. That said, I wish every one that I ever saw was out over open fields and never destroyed anybody's property or killed or injured anyone. However, I know that is rarely the case so I look at it like this. Severe storms are going to happen. Tornadoes are going to happen. They are going to destroy peoples' homes and take lives. Me enjoying seeing these forces of nature does not make that any more likely to happen. In fact, me, and other chasers, being out there and enjoying what we do can help save those lives because once we can confirm to the NWS that a tornado is on the ground they can upgrade the warning and studies have shown that a warning that has a confirmed tornado is more likely to cause people to take shelter. We are also often times the first people on a damage scene and are the first ones helping in search and rescue. So no, I hate it when people lose their lives or their homes to storms. I wish it never happened. But it does and if I can possible help save someone's life by doing something I enjoy doing then it is as much of a win win as you can get under the circumstances.

[Liverpooldawg]

Hopefully I'm just reading this wrong, but it sounds like you're pulling for life altering (or even ending) weather just so you can play around and get a rise out of it. Personally, I hope this all fizzles out and no one gets hurt.
That's the way I read it too. I have ties to a place that got leveled with many deaths a few years ago. People I knew were killed. That place won't ever be the same in my lifetime, if ever. I just am astounded at the hopeful language chasers use sometimes.

[SaintDawg]

I still remember going in the hallway and putting my hands over the back of my head. In later years we called it the put your ass in the air and kiss it goodbye position.

LMAO... I remember that mess too. I remember a horrible storm when I was a kid that didn't hit the school but popped some windows and blew doors open. Lost a lot of respect for some of our varsity football players that day.

[starkvegasdawg]

what is the Corinth area looking like with the newer models? I am over a factory and am wondering if I should send them home after the first shift around 2:00pm. What are your thoughts?


Right now it looks like the Coast is in line to get hit hard, is that the case? It looks like everything is down in South Louisiana headed towards South Mississippi.

The Corinth area is looking like it can expect storms to redevelop and move over the area between 2:00-7:00. Models are showing the potential for a broken line of discrete cells to form early this afternoon and move east. These have the potential to become severe and maybe produce a short lived tornado, but I am personally thinking the main threats would be straight line winds and large hail.

The storms along the coast are expected to weaken as the day wears on, so I would not be as concerned down there. All of MS is under a slight risk for severe weather (enhanced was dropped for north MS) so it is not out of the question you see a severe storm out of this line, but I am thinking that far south you are looking at more of a heavy rain event than anything else.

[BB30]

I know it sounds like that, but I really don't mean it that way. First, I will admit I love seeing tornadoes and severe weather. It is a huge adrenaline rush. I can't deny that. That said, I wish every one that I ever saw was out over open fields and never destroyed anybody's property or killed or injured anyone. However, I know that is rarely the case so I look at it like this. Severe storms are going to happen. Tornadoes are going to happen. They are going to destroy peoples' homes and take lives. Me enjoying seeing these forces of nature does not make that any more likely to happen. In fact, me, and other chasers, being out there and enjoying what we do can help save those lives because once we can confirm to the NWS that a tornado is on the ground they can upgrade the warning and studies have shown that a warning that has a confirmed tornado is more likely to cause people to take shelter. We are also often times the first people on a damage scene and are the first ones helping in search and rescue. So no, I hate it when people lose their lives or their homes to storms. I wish it never happened. But it does and if I can possible help save someone's life by doing something I enjoy doing then it is as much of a win win as you can get under the circumstances.

I agree with this comment. The previous comment though did come across a little off. Hoping that Ref is right and you are wrong in that the weather actually does throw tornadoes today is where I think people are getting a bit hung up.

I get tornadoes and severe weather are going to happen and what yall do when it does happen is extremely helpful, but hoping for it to happen is a little off IMO.

[SignalToNoise]

It does appear to have fizzled some, at least in the Nashville/Mid TN area.
SPC has dropped from 4/5 risk to 3/5. Probabilities of X event occurring within 25 miles of you has been halved: Hail and straight line winds from 30% to 15%, tornadoes from 10% to 5%. HRRR model seems to think there will be enough cloud cover here to limit storm potential.

I'm an amateur but these are starting to look like garden variety spring thunderstorms and that is not a complaint.

[THE Bruce Dickinson]

*****

In all honestly though I appreciate what y'all do. Elitedawgs had pretty much become my weather authority for days like today. Keep up the good work guys.


- Don't ever joke about tornadoes. It's not a joke. - Scooba

[starkvegasdawg]

I get tornadoes and severe weather are going to happen and what yall do when it does happen is extremely helpful, but hoping for it to happen is a little off IMO.

Trust me, a lot of us have a deep conflict and some guilt about getting excited when severe weather is predicted. It really does tear us both ways. When we say we're excited about the prospects of seeing severe weather we are not actively hoping to see towns get obliterated. Nothing could be further from the truth. That's why if you watch chase videos or live streams when you see a tornado approach a town or house you can often times hear the chaser start imploring it to miss the town or house or hope nobody is home or in shelters.

[Hrdawg82]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWIx3Erswh8

Something for you weather guys to pleasure yourself to today lol.

[shoeless joe]

Trust me, a lot of us have a deep conflict and some guilt about getting excited when severe weather is predicted. It really does tear us both ways. When we say we're excited about the prospects of seeing severe weather we are not actively hoping to see towns get obliterated. Nothing could be further from the truth. That's why if you watch chase videos or live streams when you see a tornado approach a town or house you can often times hear the chaser start imploring it to miss the town or house or hope nobody is home or in shelters.


No need to defend yourself. Keep doin what your doin. I appreciate the solid info you guys relay on here. Yeah, that one comment did come off a little odd but I think most folks know what you were saying.

This site has become a go to for severe westher days...constant and accurate updates. Much appreciated.

[TheRef]

The chasing community is torn on how to talk about things like that with the public. I know that I even struggle just because it's hard to put it into words without seeming like you don't care about the public.

It's a simple fact in government that it causes a major, catastrophic event in order for things to change. Large events lead to large actions on the public. After the 2008 tornado outbreak, the "StormReady" movement caught hold. After the 2011 outbreak, communities made a concerted effort to reach out to members about what to do in a tornado.

All of this to say I hope and pray that if there are tornadoes today, I hope they stay in open fields that have no crops planted on it. I want to see a beautiful stovepipe tornado go through a field and hit absolutely nothing.

[starkvegasdawg]

I've seen 9 tornadoes in my short chasing career. 6 caused none to very minor damage, 1 caused moderate damage but no injuries/fatalities, 1 caused heavy damage with 3 deaths and numerous injuries, and the Louisville, MS monster.

[Maroon Blood]

No need to defend yourself. Keep doin what your doin. I appreciate the solid info you guys relay on here. Yeah, that one comment did come off a little odd but I think most folks know what you were saying.

This site has become a go to for severe westher days...constant and accurate updates. Much appreciated.

Agreed wholeheartedly. The severe weather posts on this board are a part of my overall plan to keep my family safe. Your work and dedication are very much appreciated.

[WSOPdawg]

No need to defend yourself. Keep doin what your doin. I appreciate the solid info you guys relay on here. Yeah, that one comment did come off a little odd but I think most folks know what you were saying.

This site has become a go to for severe westher days...constant and accurate updates. Much appreciated.

I concur and definitely appreciate the updates that keeps us all informed.

[KB21]

OK. So, I will be driving from Calhoun City to Tupelo sometime after 4PM today. What should I be expecting around that time?

[TimberBeast]

Looks like there was a tornado on the ground in Gulf Hills, went North of Ocean Springs towards Vancleave about 10 minutes ago, don't know anything about the size or if there was any damage though.

[starkvegasdawg]

OK. So, I will be driving from Calhoun City to Tupelo sometime after 4PM today. What should I be expecting around that time?

The way things are looking right now not a frigging thing. Technically, Tupelo is still under a slight risk by the SPC, but things have really been trending down the last few hours on the high resolution models. I'm pretty much to the point of saying today's weather has been brought you by the letters B.U.S.T. as far as north MS goes. From a moderate to a marginal risk in 11 hours. That is just unprecedented busting right there.

[KB21]

The way things are looking right now not a frigging thing. Technically, Tupelo is still under a slight risk by the SPC, but things have really been trending down the last few hours on the high resolution models. I'm pretty much to the point of saying today's weather has been brought you by the letters B.U.S.T. as far as north MS goes. From a moderate to a marginal risk in 11 hours. That is just unprecedented busting right there.

I hope that's the case. I don't want to be driving home with severe weather going on.

[InTheIttaBenaHotSun]

So I take it, with the weather BUST in N. MS today, that our game in Oxford tonight will be played? If so, I'll start heading that way in an hour.

[starkvegasdawg]

I would almost be certain that game gets played tonight. I see one meager little piss ant line that amounts to nothing right now.

[InTheIttaBenaHotSun]

Thank you Vegas....I'm west bound and down...

[Hypnodawg]

I prefer to get my weather from Mexico

https://www.youtube.com/embed/dsYfn8yg41w?autoplay=1&rel=0

[ScoobaDawg]

Looks like there was a tornado on the ground in Gulf Hills, went North of Ocean Springs towards Vancleave about 10 minutes ago, don't know anything about the size or if there was any damage though.

Correct. Something happened in that area. Has not been confirmed as torando or straight line winds. But it's the only confimed storm of any type today so far.

Severe Weather MS‏ @SevereWeatherMS (https://twitter.com/SevereWeatherMS) 1h1 hour ago (https://twitter.com/SevereWeatherMS/status/847510559448870912)More



Preliminary storm report: trees down on Harrison/Jackson Co. line, far SE #MSwx (https://twitter.com/hashtag/MSwx?src=hash). Could have been straight-line winds, or brief/week tornado.

[Liverpooldawg]

The way things are looking right now not a frigging thing. Technically, Tupelo is still under a slight risk by the SPC, but things have really been trending down the last few hours on the high resolution models. I'm pretty much to the point of saying today's weather has been brought you by the letters B.U.S.T. as far as north MS goes. From a moderate to a marginal risk in 11 hours. That is just unprecedented busting right there.

GOOD

[SaintDawg]

The way things are looking right now not a frigging thing. Technically, Tupelo is still under a slight risk by the SPC, but things have really been trending down the last few hours on the high resolution models. I'm pretty much to the point of saying today's weather has been brought you by the letters B.U.S.T. as far as north MS goes. From a moderate to a marginal risk in 11 hours. That is just unprecedented busting right there.

Y'all had ya mouth all set for some storms and then they ain't no storms. It don't make no sense.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IPr4mvlHGQ

[PMDawg]

I concur and definitely appreciate the updates that keeps us all informed.

I agree too. That's why I opened the thread. I always come here for severe weather updates thanks to Ref and SVD34. However, I still find it very off-putting and insensitive to see someone openly hoping for very severe weather and tornadoes since that means people will be losing homes and potentially lives. I fully understand the desire to chase and/or study these storms. I would enjoy it myself. I know people do it, at least in part, for the excitement. It's just one of those things that's probably better left unsaid. Look, it's not a huge deal, but I would just advise folks to be careful what they say or how they say it. Take it fwiw, which ain't much.

[Coach007]

I came here today for this and this alone!

[RocketDawg]

I agree too. That's why I opened the thread. I always come here for severe weather updates thanks to Ref and SVD34. However, I still find it very off-putting and insensitive to see someone openly hoping for very severe weather and tornadoes since that means people will be losing homes and potentially lives. I fully understand the desire to chase and/or study these storms. I would enjoy it myself. I know people do it, at least in part, for the excitement. It's just one of those things that's probably better left unsaid. Look, it's not a huge deal, but I would just advise folks to be careful what they say or how they say it. Take it fwiw, which ain't much.

Of course you know, wishin' and hopin' has no impact on whether it happens or not ....