Todd4State
03-15-2017, 12:42 AM
It has been pretty crazy with all of the injuries which have caused us to do some unusual last resort things- but at the end of the day, right now we are 12-6. Two of those losses were on the road to an Oregon team that has not lost since we beat them, and then two top 25 type teams in Texas Tech and La Tech, and then two we should have won against Morehead State and Marist.
I think a lot of people are scarred by 2015 because we lost a lot of guys plus the injuries- but I think this team will end up being better than that one. The reason I think that is because Pilkington is a legit ace which we didn't have in 2015- well, or at least Butch didn't want to pitch Hudson much until the end of the year. We also have a much more dynamic team even if it is top heavy offensively- we have more power and we steal more bases than the 2015 team. And finally, I think our bullpen is better than it was in 2015 with the guys that we have that are actually healthy right now.
Spencer Price has been very good all year long and the times he has lost it has been a tie game and we've had to extend him. Jacob Barton has also quietly been solid as well. My guess is for SEC play we will move Ashcraft to the bullpen and I think that is a good move for him and us. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being the closer by the end of the year and Price ends up being the long relief guy. We'll see. One thing that I think will help us out a lot down the line is Rigby coming back- and I think he will eventually. Self I'm not so confident about. It seems like almost every time I hear about a player with elbow inflammation, it ends up being the worst case scenario whether that's the Cardinals or the Bulldogs. If Self does come back, we need to be pretty cautious with how we use him. I thought Denver McQuary pitched well and he can help us out either in the bullpen or starting. Trysten Barlow has been a nice surprise until the last two games- although I think Gary kept him in way too long this weekend. We need to get his confidence back.
Pilkington is going to help us out a lot, but there's a lot of pressure on him because of our bullpen situation it's imperative that he goes deep into the game pretty much every Friday. Plumlee has been solid- but I don't think he's going to give us more than 5-6 in SEC play, but hopefully he surprises me. I think the Sunday job is going to be either Billingsley or McQuary. Billingsley has had a weird season- he had two solid starts where he allowed two earned runs in 10 innings- and we lose both and then against Columbia he gets knocked around allows six runs and of course we win. McQuary outpitched him this weekend against the same team and that has to be taken into account. Midweek- and I can't believe I'm typing this- but if it were me, I'd start Mangum. I know it was a SWAC team, but he outpitched most of our other pitchers tonight. If my math is correct, we have 8 OOC games left and only one of those is on a Weds. And that's actually one reason why I like front loading with the four game weekends- it's going to give our guys a chance to rest some during SEC play. Anyway if Mangum can give us 3-5 like he did tonight we can piece it together with Barton, Ashcraft, and Price pitching two innings apiece and give ourselves a chance to win most of those. Of course, there are going to be exceptions- against Mississippi Valley we need to do what we did tonight and we play FIU on a Weds so that will spread ourselves out some.
Our catching situation is every bit as bad if not worse than our pitching. Skelton has to start now- and he's done a pretty good job overall. But with Marrero not taking school seriously, Lovelady hurt, and Stovall also hurt I'm just going to be happy with whatever we get out of Skelton.
The other day we played Rooker at first base and he did OK. I think I would prefer him there than Cody Brown and I would prefer Brown be in the outfield or at DH over Rooker. We need to get Stovall healthy- hamstrings can be nagging but I think he's supposed to be back by this weekend. LA has had a solid season and Gridley has been tearing it up lately and has been flashing some power against some of these lower level mid majors. I still don't care for him hitting third, but at least he is hitting.
I think our best OF right now all around is Blaylock, Mangum, and Poole. But the issue is Blaylock and Poole are streaky because they are inexperienced. Blaylock has been hitting better- he just has to cut out the baserunning mistakes. Poole has been hitting the ball better recently and like Gridley has hit a couple of home runs the last two games. Of course, Rooker again I think should be at first base and Cody Brown DH. Those eight in the field give us a pretty good defense:
C- Skelton
1B- Rooker
2B- Stovall
3B- LA
SS- Gridley
LF- Blaylock or Poole
CF- Mangum
RF- Blaylock or Poole
DH- Brown
In addition to Cody Brown who I would start at DH because he is a fifth year senior and it gives us some leadership in the lineup and he has some pop and has come through in some big situations before, we have Bragg who is still developing and Elijah MacNamee who is pretty much like Blaylock and Poole in terms of streakiness.
As far as the coaching- it's hard to judge Cann right now and even at the end of the year because he has such a short deck to work with. You can't expect anyone to manage effectively with this many injuries. I think the biggest criticism I have is he seems to leave guys in too long- could that be because of the four game weekends and a short staff? Absolutely. We'll know more once SEC play starts. Henderson needs to get at least one more of our guys to step up whether it's Cyr, Billingsley, or someone else. If just one of those two step up and we get Rigby back- we should be in decent shape. Long term- I think we will be fine once he gets a team that is healthy and I think he will actually improve our recruiting which was already pretty good to start with and maybe more importantly improve our retention rate of players and MLB draftees.
The good news is it does appear based on the early returns that the SEC is down this year. And what sucks is if we had half of the injuries we do- we would probably be considered one of the top 3-4 teams in the league easily. As it is it's good that we also avoid Florida and Vanderbilt during SEC play and Mizzou is much improved and we also avoid them as well. I'm not saying that we will win the SEC- but I don't think we'll be 2015 bad either. I think the 2015 teams loss to Arkansas Pine Bluff messed them up in the head and we didn't recover until we beat USC in Los Angeles and swept Oregon the next year. I think we will win our share of SEC games and then we have some good midweek opponents coming up that should help our RPI if we can win some of those and avoid losing to Mississippi Valley. We need to avoid getting swept on the road and I hope we play well against Arkansas. I can live with a 1-2 weekend but I'd love to win the series because Wes is there.
I see a lot of writers, fans, etc. compare this team to 2015 and I think that's because MSU fans expect the worst but to he honest this team actually kind of reminds me more of the 2011 team. That team dealt with some arm injuries and was kind of cobbled together and had some bad losses. But they were also scrappy and won their share of games. I'm not saying we'll go to a SR like they did- but I think we will compete like hell and win our share of games.
I think a lot of people are scarred by 2015 because we lost a lot of guys plus the injuries- but I think this team will end up being better than that one. The reason I think that is because Pilkington is a legit ace which we didn't have in 2015- well, or at least Butch didn't want to pitch Hudson much until the end of the year. We also have a much more dynamic team even if it is top heavy offensively- we have more power and we steal more bases than the 2015 team. And finally, I think our bullpen is better than it was in 2015 with the guys that we have that are actually healthy right now.
Spencer Price has been very good all year long and the times he has lost it has been a tie game and we've had to extend him. Jacob Barton has also quietly been solid as well. My guess is for SEC play we will move Ashcraft to the bullpen and I think that is a good move for him and us. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being the closer by the end of the year and Price ends up being the long relief guy. We'll see. One thing that I think will help us out a lot down the line is Rigby coming back- and I think he will eventually. Self I'm not so confident about. It seems like almost every time I hear about a player with elbow inflammation, it ends up being the worst case scenario whether that's the Cardinals or the Bulldogs. If Self does come back, we need to be pretty cautious with how we use him. I thought Denver McQuary pitched well and he can help us out either in the bullpen or starting. Trysten Barlow has been a nice surprise until the last two games- although I think Gary kept him in way too long this weekend. We need to get his confidence back.
Pilkington is going to help us out a lot, but there's a lot of pressure on him because of our bullpen situation it's imperative that he goes deep into the game pretty much every Friday. Plumlee has been solid- but I don't think he's going to give us more than 5-6 in SEC play, but hopefully he surprises me. I think the Sunday job is going to be either Billingsley or McQuary. Billingsley has had a weird season- he had two solid starts where he allowed two earned runs in 10 innings- and we lose both and then against Columbia he gets knocked around allows six runs and of course we win. McQuary outpitched him this weekend against the same team and that has to be taken into account. Midweek- and I can't believe I'm typing this- but if it were me, I'd start Mangum. I know it was a SWAC team, but he outpitched most of our other pitchers tonight. If my math is correct, we have 8 OOC games left and only one of those is on a Weds. And that's actually one reason why I like front loading with the four game weekends- it's going to give our guys a chance to rest some during SEC play. Anyway if Mangum can give us 3-5 like he did tonight we can piece it together with Barton, Ashcraft, and Price pitching two innings apiece and give ourselves a chance to win most of those. Of course, there are going to be exceptions- against Mississippi Valley we need to do what we did tonight and we play FIU on a Weds so that will spread ourselves out some.
Our catching situation is every bit as bad if not worse than our pitching. Skelton has to start now- and he's done a pretty good job overall. But with Marrero not taking school seriously, Lovelady hurt, and Stovall also hurt I'm just going to be happy with whatever we get out of Skelton.
The other day we played Rooker at first base and he did OK. I think I would prefer him there than Cody Brown and I would prefer Brown be in the outfield or at DH over Rooker. We need to get Stovall healthy- hamstrings can be nagging but I think he's supposed to be back by this weekend. LA has had a solid season and Gridley has been tearing it up lately and has been flashing some power against some of these lower level mid majors. I still don't care for him hitting third, but at least he is hitting.
I think our best OF right now all around is Blaylock, Mangum, and Poole. But the issue is Blaylock and Poole are streaky because they are inexperienced. Blaylock has been hitting better- he just has to cut out the baserunning mistakes. Poole has been hitting the ball better recently and like Gridley has hit a couple of home runs the last two games. Of course, Rooker again I think should be at first base and Cody Brown DH. Those eight in the field give us a pretty good defense:
C- Skelton
1B- Rooker
2B- Stovall
3B- LA
SS- Gridley
LF- Blaylock or Poole
CF- Mangum
RF- Blaylock or Poole
DH- Brown
In addition to Cody Brown who I would start at DH because he is a fifth year senior and it gives us some leadership in the lineup and he has some pop and has come through in some big situations before, we have Bragg who is still developing and Elijah MacNamee who is pretty much like Blaylock and Poole in terms of streakiness.
As far as the coaching- it's hard to judge Cann right now and even at the end of the year because he has such a short deck to work with. You can't expect anyone to manage effectively with this many injuries. I think the biggest criticism I have is he seems to leave guys in too long- could that be because of the four game weekends and a short staff? Absolutely. We'll know more once SEC play starts. Henderson needs to get at least one more of our guys to step up whether it's Cyr, Billingsley, or someone else. If just one of those two step up and we get Rigby back- we should be in decent shape. Long term- I think we will be fine once he gets a team that is healthy and I think he will actually improve our recruiting which was already pretty good to start with and maybe more importantly improve our retention rate of players and MLB draftees.
The good news is it does appear based on the early returns that the SEC is down this year. And what sucks is if we had half of the injuries we do- we would probably be considered one of the top 3-4 teams in the league easily. As it is it's good that we also avoid Florida and Vanderbilt during SEC play and Mizzou is much improved and we also avoid them as well. I'm not saying that we will win the SEC- but I don't think we'll be 2015 bad either. I think the 2015 teams loss to Arkansas Pine Bluff messed them up in the head and we didn't recover until we beat USC in Los Angeles and swept Oregon the next year. I think we will win our share of SEC games and then we have some good midweek opponents coming up that should help our RPI if we can win some of those and avoid losing to Mississippi Valley. We need to avoid getting swept on the road and I hope we play well against Arkansas. I can live with a 1-2 weekend but I'd love to win the series because Wes is there.
I see a lot of writers, fans, etc. compare this team to 2015 and I think that's because MSU fans expect the worst but to he honest this team actually kind of reminds me more of the 2011 team. That team dealt with some arm injuries and was kind of cobbled together and had some bad losses. But they were also scrappy and won their share of games. I'm not saying we'll go to a SR like they did- but I think we will compete like hell and win our share of games.