New round of guess the penalties

[lefty96]

We have more information than before now - seems a good time to make some new guesses.

I'll go for a 2 year bowl ban, loss of 30 scholarships over 3 years and Freeze gets a show cause. I wouldn't rule out Bjork getting fired at the close of it.

[Dawgface]

We have more information than before now - seems a good time to make some new guesses.

I'll go for a 2 year bowl ban, loss of 30 scholarships over 3 years and Freeze gets a show cause. I wouldn't rule out Bjork getting fired at the close of it.

This at a minimum. I wouldn't be surprised if slightly more.

[HereComesTheSpiral]

https://temple3.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/sc-howardschatz.jpg

[WinningIsRelentless]

https://temple3.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/sc-howardschatz.jpg

That's a mic drop moment

[smootness]

We have more information than before now - seems a good time to make some new guesses.

I'll go for a 2 year bowl ban, loss of 30 scholarships over 3 years and Freeze gets a show cause. I wouldn't rule out Bjork getting fired at the close of it.

Yeah, it won't be less than that.

And if there is a 2+-year bowl ban, all scholarship players are allowed to transfer without penalty. Even those penalties would be a massive hit.

[msstate7]

Yeah, it won't be less than that.

And if there is a 2+-year bowl ban, all scholarship players are allowed to transfer without penalty. Even those penalties would be a massive hit.

Is there a rule against transferring in the conference in that case? Surely we could get a couple "free agents" from them

[Dawgbite]

https://temple3.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/sc-howardschatz.jpg

Whats with all the maroon chairbacks in the upper deck in the background? That doesn't exist.

[smootness]

Is there a rule against transferring in the conference in that case? Surely we could get a couple "free agents" from them

Nope. No penalty is no penalty.

[msstate7]

Nope. No penalty is no penalty.

Since they self-imposed a 1-year bowl ban, can seniors transfer with no penalty?

If a player transferred now and OM got a 2-year bowl ban later, can said player get waived on having to sit out the year?

[HereComesTheSpiral]

Whats with all the maroon chairbacks in the upper deck in the background? That doesn't exist.

We did a lot of pretending in those days. We pretended to have chairbacks and a coach.

[smootness]

Since they self-imposed a 1-year bowl ban, can seniors transfer with no penalty?

If a player transferred now and OM got a 2-year bowl ban later, can said player get waived on having to sit out the year?

I don't think that will be decided until the sanctions are handed down. And I don't know how it works if you try to transfer now. But I think it's safe to say that at the very least, some of their current roster will be allowed to transfer without penalty eventually.

[Saltydog]

that hard to keep that bucked toothed s.o.b.? If they keep him, he'll be as harmless as a heel hound. The only thing Freeze has shown that he's good at is recruiting and the only reason he was good there was because he was cheating his ass off. If they somehow are able to keep him he'll be walking a very fine line knowing that if the boys from the NCAA have to come back he's DONE. Essentially if they keep him, he's rendered useless. So, why not make a fresh start and clean house now. I think they really believe they can beat this thing.

[lefty96]

that hard to keep that bucked toothed s.o.b.? If they keep him, he'll be as harmless as a heel hound. The only thing Freeze has shown that he's good at is recruiting and the only reason he was good there was because he was cheating his ass off. If they somehow are able to keep him he'll be walking a very fine line knowing that if the boys from the NCAA have to come back he's DONE. Essentially if they keep him, he's rendered useless. So, why not make a fresh start and clean house now. I think they really believe they can beat this thing.

Freeze and Bjork are in this together is my guess. Unless someone above them forces them both out - they'll stay until they have to go. Really, you have to think Bjork was in on it to an extent given that it happened in basketball and track under his watch. He maybe buying Freeze's silence on his part in it.

[Dawgology]

https://temple3.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/sc-howardschatz.jpg

Not only does your profile pick and user name make me smile everytime I see it but this post is beautiful. Keep it up!

[Dawgology]

that hard to keep that bucked toothed s.o.b.? If they keep him, he'll be as harmless as a heel hound. The only thing Freeze has shown that he's good at is recruiting and the only reason he was good there was because he was cheating his ass off. If they somehow are able to keep him he'll be walking a very fine line knowing that if the boys from the NCAA have to come back he's DONE. Essentially if they keep him, he's rendered useless. So, why not make a fresh start and clean house now. I think they really believe they can beat this thing.

I REALLY hope they keep believing that!!

[smootness]

that hard to keep that bucked toothed s.o.b.? If they keep him, he'll be as harmless as a heel hound. The only thing Freeze has shown that he's good at is recruiting and the only reason he was good there was because he was cheating his ass off. If they somehow are able to keep him he'll be walking a very fine line knowing that if the boys from the NCAA have to come back he's DONE. Essentially if they keep him, he's rendered useless. So, why not make a fresh start and clean house now. I think they really believe they can beat this thing.

They inexplicably kept Barney Farrar on staff and undisciplined even after his text messages became public knowledge. They're arrogant and stupid.

[Political Hack]

40 scholarships over 4 years
3 year bowl ban
5+ year show cause for Freeze

[lefty96]

40 scholarships over 4 years
3 year bowl ban
5+ year show cause for Freeze

I could see the 40 over 4 possibly. I guess the hinge pin is does the ncaa stick to the "no worse than USC" benchmark.

[Dawgology]

36 schollys over 4
2 year bowl ban
7 year show cause for Freeze
10 year probation for the athletic program as a whole
Vacate all wins in which ineligible players played in games since the Nutt era (since his regime is also included in some of these allegations)

[Dawg-gone-dawgs]

Is there a rule against transferring in the conference in that case? Surely we could get a couple "free agents" from them

not no....but HELL NO!!!!

[Political Hack]

I could see the 40 over 4 possibly. I guess the hinge pin is does the ncaa stick to the "no worse than USC" benchmark.

I can say this with unequivocal confidence... The NCAA stopped the investigation to issue the 2nd NOA even though they have much, much more they could follow up on. They have stuff on Tunsil. They have stuff on 2017 recruits. They have stuff on Treadwell.

If they wanted to levy a heavier punishment, and this was truly a witch hunt, they would continue down those paths. To their credit, the NCAA has thought about return on investment and realized they have enough to cripple Ole Miss. Whatever punishment they "wanted" to hand down--in the words of Neal McCready--they think they have enough to make it happen. Otherwise they would've continued with the numerous other allegations that are in their possession, many of which came from interviews with recruits in the 2017 signing class.

So the question becomes: did the NCAA stop on purpose before they got to "death penalty" status or do they think they have enough to shoot for it now?

[Cooterpoot]

2 year bowl ban, 30 over 3 years plus the ones UM has already offered up, Bjork is fired and Freezus is banned.

[jumbo]

40 scholly. 2 year bowl ban. Show causes for Freeze, Barney and maybe Kiffin. Lots of probation and transfers.

[Johnson85]

40 scholarships over 4 years
3 year bowl ban
5+ year show cause for Freeze

This is my new baseline for penalties (except maybe only a two year bowl ban). I think the minimum is USC. Their NOAs are so much less than Ole Miss, but I think it's pretty clear for USC the NCAA put in what they could prove and then punish them for what they were confident happened but couldn't prove. Guess we'll see whether they think UM was guilty of more than USC.

[WSOPdawg]

40 scholarships over 4 years
3 year bowl ban
5+ year show cause for Freeze

I concur, but these are the LEAST the penalties will be imo.

[lefty96]

I can say this with unequivocal confidence... The NCAA stopped the investigation to issue the 2nd NOA even though they have much, much more they could follow up on. They have stuff on Tunsil. They have stuff on 2017 recruits. They have stuff on Treadwell.

If they wanted to levy a heavier punishment, and this was truly a witch hunt, they would continue down those paths. To their credit, the NCAA has thought about return on investment and realized they have enough to cripple Ole Miss. Whatever punishment they "wanted" to hand down--in the words of Neal McCready--they think they have enough to make it happen. Otherwise they would've continued with the numerous other allegations that are in their possession, many of which came from interviews with recruits in the 2017 signing class.

So the question becomes: did the NCAA stop on purpose before they got to "death penalty" status or do they think they have enough to shoot for it now?

True. I've been arguing with a USC fan at my work who says there's never going to be worse than what they got - I've countered that they made that statement before they travelled to Oxford.

[Reason2succeed]

I can say this with unequivocal confidence... The NCAA stopped the investigation to issue the 2nd NOA even though they have much, much more they could follow up on. They have stuff on Tunsil. They have stuff on 2017 recruits. They have stuff on Treadwell.

If they wanted to levy a heavier punishment, and this was truly a witch hunt, they would continue down those paths. To their credit, the NCAA has thought about return on investment and realized they have enough to cripple Ole Miss. Whatever punishment they "wanted" to hand down--in the words of Neal McCready--they think they have enough to make it happen. Otherwise they would've continued with the numerous other allegations that are in their possession, many of which came from interviews with recruits in the 2017 signing class.

So the question becomes: did the NCAA stop on purpose before they got to "death penalty" status or do they think they have enough to shoot for it now?

I concur. What I haven't heard mentioned is that yesterday we finally confirmed what had been speculated for a long time:OM got caught cheating WHILE UNDER INVESTIGATION. Remember in the beginning of the video that Chancellor Vitter (sounds like a ranking member of the empire in Star Wars) outlined the WBB and track portion that already had those athletics program under probation.

I don't claim to know how it works but I could see how the COI would at least consider repeat violator status and thus put the death penalty on the table. Later Bjork said they would fight to keep them in the sec and playing football. Those scripts were well written to get things on record without explicitly confessing.

That said I believe the penalties will be so harsh that a one or two year death penalty will seem like a more viable option.

[Jack Lambert]

What ever the NCAA imposed on USC.

[WSOPdawg]

I concur. What I haven't heard mentioned is that yesterday we finally confirmed what had been speculated for a long time:OM got caught cheating WHILE UNDER INVESTIGATION. Remember in the beginning of the video that Chancellor Vitter (sounds like a ranking member of the empire in Star Wars) outlined the WBB and track portion that already had those athletics program under probation.

I don't claim to know how it works but I could see how the COI would at least consider repeat violator status and thus put the death penalty on the table. Later Bjork said they would fight to keep them in the sec and playing football. Those scripts were well written to get things on record without explicitly confessing.

That said I believe the penalties will be so harsh that a one or two year death penalty will seem like a more viable option.

People can keep refusing to call a spade a spade all they want, but the truth of the matter is that the NCAA has TCUN targeted as a perpetual cheater for almost a decade and can't even convince them to stop cheating while an investigation is ongoing.

There's a reason you don't offer a cop a donut when they've pulled you over for speeding -- you gotta show respect. Yet, throughout this entire process, TCUN has thumbed its nose at the NCAA while preaching "exemplary cooperation" and "we can't wait to tell our story" while allowing the Network (with coaches involvement) to continue to lie and cheat to prospective athletes all to further their new way of circumventing the NCAA rules.

The NCAA is gonna shut these cheating bastards down one way or the other.

[preachermatt83]

32 scholarships over 4 years
2 year bowl ban
1 year show cause for Freeze
4 years probation

[msstate7]

32 scholarships over 4 years
2 year bowl ban
1 year show cause for Freeze
4 years probation

Tressel got a 5-year show. No way freeze gets less than that... no way

[Johnson85]

I could see the 40 over 4 possibly. I guess the hinge pin is does the ncaa stick to the "no worse than USC" benchmark.

??? What is the "no worse than USC" benchmark? Did the NCAA indicate that was now the most severe punishment? That doesnt' sound right.

[preachermatt83]

Tressel got a 5-year show. No way freeze gets less than that... no way

It was proven he lied to NCAA.

[lefty96]

??? What is the "no worse than USC" benchmark? Did the NCAA indicate that was now the most severe punishment? That doesnt' sound right.

30 over 3. I'm looking but I can't find a firm reference to it being a concrete rule - I've heard it often enough to where I think it is.

[msstate7]

It was proven he lied to NCAA.

So you think freeze has been completely upfront with the NCAA?

[lefty96]

https://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/Att2_Penalty%2BGuideline%2BMatrix%2B(Version%2B6)_ 101212.pdf


Based on this and the volume of allegations, they basically can just make up numbers.

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Unless the Black Bears self nuke and do not fight NCAA
Per the Matrix
2-4 schollys per level 1 so between 30-48
1-3 per level 2 so between 5-15
0-2 per level 3 so between 0-5
Between 35 and 68 Schollys.
3-4 year Bowl Ban....i think they get 2 year ban even if they offer up Hey Hugh
Loss of Bowl Revenue 16-40 Million
Show Cause for Freeze and possible another coach that is still on staff..
3-10 Years Probation..

The Current Bowl Ban and other self imposed is basically the same as ULL for 4 Level 1's... Ole Miss has 15 and LOIC.
Not to mention the SEC could also impose penalties as well...including Revenue from SEC network, cancellation of conference games and being dropped from the conference...

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Tressel got a 5-year show. No way freeze gets less than that... no way

The UCLA OL coach got 2 year Show Cause for a Level 2 a couple of months ago.

[SheltonChoked]

Using just the minimum Standard Level I penalty structure, 15 violations is 47 scholarships. This is huge, but only a 3 scholorship hit per Level I violation. That seems like a bad precedent to set.

If they are all aggravated Level I's, the high end is 188.5. That seems too high.


My guess is:
a loss of 12 scholarships a year for 5-6 years (60-72 total).
2 year non-conference game ban
3 year bowl ban
5-6 years probation.
50% reduction in recruiting visits over probation timeframe
20 year show cause for Freeze
All games vacated back to the 2006 season.
SEC suspends all football related money payout until probation is over

[msstate7]

Using just the minimum Standard Level I penalty structure, 15 violations is 47 scholarships. This is huge, but only a 3 scholorship hit per Level I violation. That seems like a bad precedent to set.

If they are all aggravated Level I's, the high end is 188.5. That seems too high.

My guess is:
a loss of 12 scholarships a year for 5-6 years (60-72 total).
2 year non-conference game ban
3 year bowl ban
5-6 years probation.
50% reduction in recruiting visits over probation timeframe
20 year show cause for Freeze
All games vacated back to the 2006 season.
SEC suspends all football related money payout until probation is over

I think 140 over 4 is fair... take the ones over 85 from basketball, baseball, etc**

[blacklistedbully]

I can say this with unequivocal confidence... The NCAA stopped the investigation to issue the 2nd NOA even though they have much, much more they could follow up on. They have stuff on Tunsil. They have stuff on 2017 recruits. They have stuff on Treadwell.

If they wanted to levy a heavier punishment, and this was truly a witch hunt, they would continue down those paths. To their credit, the NCAA has thought about return on investment and realized they have enough to cripple Ole Miss. Whatever punishment they "wanted" to hand down--in the words of Neal McCready--they think they have enough to make it happen. Otherwise they would've continued with the numerous other allegations that are in their possession, many of which came from interviews with recruits in the 2017 signing class.

So the question becomes: did the NCAA stop on purpose before they got to "death penalty" status or do they think they have enough to shoot for it now?

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Political Hack again.

[mparkerfd20]

My guess is:
60 scholarships over 6 years
2-3 year non-conference game ban
2-3 year bowl ban
6-10 years probation.
50% reduction in recruiting visits over probation timeframe
8 year show cause for Freeze
All games vacated back to the 2006 season.

In the end I think Ole Miss is going to WISH they got the Death Penalty.

[drunkernhelldawg]

that hard to keep that bucked toothed s.o.b.? If they keep him, he'll be as harmless as a heel hound. The only thing Freeze has shown that he's good at is recruiting and the only reason he was good there was because he was cheating his ass off. If they somehow are able to keep him he'll be walking a very fine line knowing that if the boys from the NCAA have to come back he's DONE. Essentially if they keep him, he's rendered useless. So, why not make a fresh start and clean house now. I think they really believe they can beat this thing.

I think he will be fired. Maybe they needed him on board to help fight Allegation 8 since that one goes to institutional control.

[drunkernhelldawg]

I'm going to say 2 year bowl ban and 18 scholarships. 5 year probation. reduced recruiting visits. Ban most guilty boosters from campus.

[WSOPdawg]

I'm going to say 2 year bowl ban and 18 scholarships. 5 year probation. reduced recruiting visits. Ban most guilty boosters from campus.

drunkernhelldafwg be drunk, lolololol.

[smootness]

My guess is:
60 scholarships over 6 years
2-3 year non-conference game ban
2-3 year bowl ban
6-10 years probation.
50% reduction in recruiting visits over probation timeframe
8 year show cause for Freeze
All games vacated back to the 2006 season.

In the end I think Ole Miss is going to WISH they got the Death Penalty.

That would effectively be the death penalty. I think that's the upper bound of possibilities, with the 30 over 3, 2 year ban, Freeze show cause, 5 year probation as the lower bound.