When to go for 2, rather than the XP

[Quaoarsking]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-go-for-2-for-real/

Very interesting article. It's based on NFL data and not be exactly the same in college, but should be very similar. Statically speaking, if you're down 10 and score a TD, you're better off going for 2. Same if you're down 14. This of course assumes that the head coach's primary motivation is to win the game, rather than avoid criticism.

Someone should forward this to our coaching staff. Could be the difference in a big win someday.

[smootness]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-go-for-2-for-real/

Very interesting article. It's based on NFL data and not be exactly the same in college, but should be very similar. Statically speaking, if you're down 10 and score a TD, you're better off going for 2. Same if you're down 14. This of course assumes that the head coach's primary motivation is to win the game, rather than avoid criticism.

Someone should forward this to our coaching staff. Could be the difference in a big win someday.

Basically, if you're losing, the only times you should kick the extra point are when you are down 14, 7, and 3 after the 6 from the TD. In all other situations, it is at least as beneficial to go for 2.

If you're winning, the only times you should go for 2 are when doing so would put you up by 3, 7, and 14.

[msstate7]

I wish we'd go for 2 every time in the 1st half and then play it by ear in the 2nd half. I wonder how much time a team would have to spend on 2-pt defense to get ready for us

I'd also like to go for it on 4th down on any drive that starts in the opponents' territory. By knowing we'll be going for it on 4th down we can play call accordingly.

This is 2 ways to try and be innovative

[Mjoelner34]

Slightly OT but I've always wanted to see a fake kick on the XP. Of course I've seen bad snaps and bad holds that turn into a fire drill going for 2 but I want to see a fake executed from the kicking formation. You know the D either has their ears pinned back to block the kick or are just standing there with their thumbs up their ass. There's no way in hell they're expecting a tight end to slip out into the flats.

On FG the possibility of a fake is always in the back of your mind but I guarentee you it isn't on an XP.

[ShotgunDawg]

Theory works better and in the NFL than college due to talent levels being closer. I'm going for two against OM, who has no LBs, and not against Bama when it's more than likely a loss of yardage

[Tbonewannabe]

Having a true dual threat QB also helps. Dak bulldozing the Green Bay LB to tie the game shows how tough it is to defend a running QB for 2 yards.

[smootness]

Theory works better and in the NFL than college due to talent levels being closer. I'm going for two against OM, who has no LBs, and not against Bama when it's more than likely a loss of yardage

Depends on the playcall. I wouldn't just run it straight up the middle on pretty much any 2-point conversion attempt.

But it can be a way to level the playing field a bit more. It's easier to get 2 yards on Bama than it is to go up and down the field. Getting an extra, say, 3 points this way throughout the game can help.

[sleepy dawg]

If it was up to me, we'd go for 2 every time. To take it a step further, I feel the same way about punting. I would go for it on 4th way more often as well, whether it's punt or fg situation is irrelevant to me. If it's 5 or less yards, I say go for it.

[Reason2succeed]

A lot of you would be fired from your coaching duties very quickly. The first time your team loses by one point you would be the sole scapegoat.

[Quaoarsking]

A lot of you would be fired from your coaching duties very quickly. The first time your team loses by one point you would be the sole scapegoat.

All Mullen would need is an AD who has his back and likes math/stats. I think (hope?) he has one now.

[sleepy dawg]

A lot of you would be fired from your coaching duties very quickly. The first time your team loses by one point you would be the sole scapegoat.

Does that even need to be said? Most people in the world would be fired quickly from a head coaching job in d1 college football.