Realistic baseball expectations

[preachermatt83]

What's everyone expecting for this year? I'm expecting about 35 reg season wins... solid 2 seed.

[TNDawg35]

Beating the shit out of NM.... F***in Shirtbirds...

But im with you. 30-40 wins and a solid 2 seed unless the stars magically align and we host... You never know.

[confucius say]

32-24 before sec tourney. On da bubble.

[AROB44]

First.....FIRE THE HEAD COACH !!!

[Homedawg]

I have a hard time seeing this is a great team. Too many unknowns and injuries on the pitching staff of guys we are counting on and lost a ton of production offensively. We could be a 2 or a 3 in a regional or just as easily be at home. Ball needs to bounce right for post season play.

[trob115]

3 seed somewhere. We're young and lost a lot of offense.

[Joe Schmedlap]

Win the whole 17'n thing in 17.


What's everyone expecting for this year? I'm expecting about 35 reg season wins... solid 2 seed.

[Bothrops]

I think we might struggle for a while this year. Lost too much offense.

[Todd4State]

I think we might struggle for a while this year. Lost too much offense.

The pitching injuries are far more worrisome. I've yet to see a team win that didn't have good pitching. If James is out I imagine we're going to have to rely on Riley Self or Kale Breaux to take the third spot in the rotation.

[Commercecomet24]

Yeah Keegan's done. As my ole coach used to say " if you ain't got pitching you ain't got squat". We will be as good as our pitching. We could win 30-35 hopefully,

[State82]

Squarely on the bubble, with work to do in Hoover to get in.

[maroonmania]

Its really sort of amazing that the current SO class I thought was the best pitching class we had ever signed. However, due to a rash of injuries like I've never seen its turning into just an OK class.

[GTHOM]

Why so many worries about us offensively? Rooker, Mangum, Brown, Alexander, Gridley all have shown they can hit. You guys know more than I do but I think we should be pretty good

[lamont]

Losing James for the season was the final blow to being a top 15 team. We will get in the NCAA Tourney- but this team is young and has lost too many quality arms to surgery to make any real noise in 2017.

[basedog]

Losing James for the season was the final blow to being a top 15 team. We will get in the NCAA Tourney- but this team is young and has lost too many quality arms to surgery to make any real noise in 2017.

Why so many arm injuries?

[lamont]

Why so many arm injuries?

Either Wes Johnson created some problems with delivery and regimen or we are doing something wrong in the weightroom.

[basedog]

Either Wes Johnson created some problems with delivery and regimen or we are doing something wrong in the weightroom.

Dang, did we change the weight/condition Coach? Seems we have more arm injuries that I can remember.

[Todd4State]

Dang, did we change the weight/condition Coach? Seems we have more arm injuries that I can remember.

Brian Neal is still the strength coach- but I don't think he's the problem.

[basedog]

[QUOTE=Todd4State;689605]Brian Neal is still the strength coach- but I don't think he's the problem.[/QUOTE

So many young arms, whatever it is I sure hope it's fixed now.

[Todd4State]

Its really sort of amazing that the current SO class I thought was the best pitching class we had ever signed. However, due to a rash of injuries like I've never seen its turning into just an OK class.

Depends on how they recover. They still have a chance to be good with how pitchers recover nowadays. The biggest thing still in our favor is we have a legit SEC ace in Pilkington and that's really the most important piece of the rotation that you need every weekend. Cyr I think is clearly the two guy now. He's a solid pitcher but he needs to take some strides because I'm not sure that he can eat a ton of innings for us. I think Riley Self is going to be good but he's a true freshman. I thought we might use him like we used Lindgren and Girodo in the past but now I'm pretty sure he is in line to possibly be a weekend guy for us. Kale Breaux has as much talent as anyone on the staff but his command was way off.

We're going to have to rely on Rigby and Blake Smith a lot. We could see Jacob Billingsley pitch a lot too- and I think he could be a candidate to start too. We need some of our JUCO guys like Peyton Plumlee or Spencer Price to step up to help us out as well.

[Todd4State]

[QUOTE=Todd4State;689605]Brian Neal is still the strength coach- but I don't think he's the problem.[/QUOTE

So many young arms, whatever it is I sure hope it's fixed now.

IMO it's the same thing that is causing everyone else to have Tommy John surgery- too much pitching in travel ball, only focusing on baseball and not playing other sports in a few cases, etc.

Neal has been the same guy- but we have changed programs three times in the past three years- two that affected the current class the most and I do think that may have had some impact to be honest. But I don't think there is just one cause.

[Commercecomet24]

[QUOTE=basedog;689618]

IMO it's the same thing that is causing everyone else to have Tommy John surgery- too much pitching in travel ball, only focusing on baseball and not playing other sports in a few cases, etc.

Neal has been the same guy- but we have changed programs three times in the past three years- two that affected the current class the most and I do think that may have had some impact to be honest. But I don't think there is just one cause.

This is correct. It's not just one cause but the serious contributing factor is playing too much Baseball. These kids are throwing to many pitches at to young an age. I've been coaching travel ball for 15 years and the majority of these travel coaches are killing these young arms. We faced a team from Florida in the first tournament of the year last year, 14U. Championship game coach threw his pitcher 7 innings 140 pitches. That's the biggest problem now. Absolutely insane overuse on a lot of them.
These kids are damaged to some degree before we ever get em on campus.

[I seen it dawg]

Gonna see a lot more arm injuries everywhere before it's slows down. Too many stupid parents.

[lamont]

Travel teams are certainly wearing down pitchers. Too much mileage on incoming freshmen every year

[Steakonastick]

To me it's two problems.

1. Kids are pitching way to much. Perfect example my old boss his son is 16 and he just had tommy John. The kid was playing travel ball year round plus rec ball stage 10-12. The arm has to take a break. I'm amazed at how many coaches and dad's think they know more then James Andrews.

2. The human arm can only throw so hard mechanically before it breaks down. Kids are bigger then ever before and everybody is in love with the radar gun. Also, most throwing programs are now incorporating weighted throws. You are not going to get the increases that Johnson got without hurting a few kids.

[basedog]

Gonna see a lot more arm injuries everywhere before it's slows down. Too many stupid parents.

Amen brother on stupid parents. It isn't just baseball, but soccer, softball, basketball, dance/cheerleader.......
My oldest daughter and her family stay on the road with 2 girls and a son. They don't have time to be kids if you know what I mean.

[Todd4State]

To me it's two problems.

1. Kids are pitching way to much. Perfect example my old boss his son is 16 and he just had tommy John. The kid was playing travel ball year round plus rec ball stage 10-12. The arm has to take a break. I'm amazed at how many coaches and dad's think they know more then James Andrews.

2. The human arm can only throw so hard mechanically before it breaks down. Kids are bigger then ever before and everybody is in love with the radar gun. Also, most throwing programs are now incorporating weighted throws. You are not going to get the increases that Johnson got without hurting a few kids.

Exactly. The thing about Tommy John is it's a "repetitive motion injury". It's not that one game that one time against D'Lo High School in the playoffs where a kid threw 150 pitches. It's a sum of throwing high pitch counts and not getting enough rest between starts over and over again plus that game against D'Lo HS that all add up.

On point two- if Arkansas has a lot of pitchers go down with Tommy John I think then an assumption could possibly be made then, but we'll see.

[bulldogcountry1]

I'm not ready to be all doom and gloom yet due the injuries, though it's starting to get concerning.

I think the hitting will be just fine. We have a lot of experience, and Coggin has shown that he knows how to coach hitting. Add in Canny's experience, and we should be in good shape.

Obviously, the pitching is the question. I'm curious to see what Henderson does with the staff. Like any other team, you have to rely on newcomers to make an impact. I think that's really what is going to dictate how the season goes. Can 2-3 new guys eat innings? We still have a lot of arms, despite the injuries, and it's not like we're losing juniors. These are freshmen and sophomores with mostly midweek experience, if any. We might lose a couple that we shouldn't early on trying to find out what everyone's role is, but the talent should kick in, eventually.

[TStationDawg]

[QUOTE=Todd4State;689657]

This is correct. It's not just one cause but the serious contributing factor is playing too much Baseball. These kids are throwing to many pitches at to young an age. I've been coaching travel ball for 15 years and the majority of these travel coaches are killing these young arms. We faced a team from Florida in the first tournament of the year last year, 14U. Championship game coach threw his pitcher 7 innings 140 pitches. That's the biggest problem now. Absolutely insane overuse on a lot of them.
These kids are damaged to some degree before we ever get em on campus.

Yep- and that's if he only plays on that ONE travel team, which is doubtful.
Parent's need to step in or at least have an understanding with coaches before season starts. No single TRAVEL ball game/championship is worth that. Heck, not even Omaha is worth it if the kids got a future (looking at you Ben McDonald). Coaches need to be responsible yes, but so do parents- that's YOUR kid! Protect them for crying out loud!

[TStationDawg]

Gonna see a lot more arm injuries everywhere before it's slows down. Too many stupid parents.

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to I seen it dawg again.

[State82]

Gonna see a lot more arm injuries everywhere before it's slows down. Too many stupid parents.

Nailed it

[Homedawg]

Well remember this, you can only have 35 on roster 27 on baseball aid and 8 not. Any of those that got hurt that are on scholarship count against the 35. So we will start the year w less than 35 no matter how you shake it.

[WPS]

Exactly. The thing about Tommy John is it's a "repetitive motion injury". It's not that one game that one time against D'Lo High School in the playoffs where a kid threw 150 pitches. It's a sum of throwing high pitch counts and not getting enough rest between starts over and over again plus that game against D'Lo HS that all add up.

On point two- if Arkansas has a lot of pitchers go down with Tommy John I think then an assumption could possibly be made then, but we'll see.

-

Bo Mattingly
‏@SportsTalkwBo
Ark junior pitcher Keaton McKinney has an elbow injury that will require Tommy John surgery. Expected to miss the 2017 season per U of A.

[preachermatt83]

-

There is no question in my mind the Johnson is destroying arms.

[Homedawg]

Gonna see a lot more arm injuries everywhere before it's slows down. Too many stupid parents.

This all day

[Homedawg]

There is no question in my mind the Johnson is destroying arms.

I can't base this on our injuries at present, however, it's certainly something to watch and see if becomes a trend. W that said, Ethan small was a walking arm injury, his mechanics were awful, herky jerky and all over the place, violent. Keegan? Not so much....good thing to watch for sure

[I seen it dawg]

This all day

****ing dumbass camp kids now daddys....lol.

"Son here's your camp evaluation...first thing you need to do is take 2 weeks off...then quit the game."

[Coursesuper]

****ing dumbass camp kids now daddys....lol.

"Son here's your camp evaluation...first thing you need to do is take 2 weeks off...then quit the game."

You have no idea how close to true that statement is, have a 16 and 13 year old I've seen this 100 times, these morons are pushing kids from the time they are 7, it's all about daddy.

[Homedawg]

****ing dumbass camp kids now daddys....lol.

"Son here's your camp evaluation...first thing you need to do is take 2 weeks off...then quit the game."

Yep. I'm sure you miss the days of spaz!!

[AlSwearengen]

I was talking baseball with a couple of young guys (21-23) a few days ago and they were talking about different friends of their's or kids they played against that had tommy john surgery when they were in the ninth/tenth/eleventh grades. None of which anyone has ever heard about because they didn't go any further than maybe juco, so it seems to be very prevalent.

[HSVDawg]

Anything over .500 is icing on the cake for me. If we make the tourney we need to make AC one of the top 5 salaried coaches in all of college baseball.

[msstate7]

Anything over .500 is icing on the cake for me. If we make the tourney we need to make AC one of the top 5 salaried coaches in all of college baseball.

I think we're better than that. Why so down on this team?

[HSVDawg]

I think we're better than that. Why so down on this team?

As stated previously by others, too many unknowns and too much turnover of both players and coaches. I think we have the talent, but it is young talent and I think the arm injuries are going to force us to put some guys out there who are still a year away (kinda like 2015). Other than Gridley, Mangum, Rooker, and Pilkington, I don't think we know what we are going to get out of anyone in the starting 9 or midweek / weekend rotation. Just too many guys we need to step up that have minimal experience and I think some guys are going to struggle. I do expect us to be much better in 2018 and afterwards though.

[CadaverDawg]

As stated previously by others, too many unknowns and too much turnover of both players and coaches. I think we have the talent, but it is young talent and I think the arm injuries are going to force us to put some guys out there who are still a year away (kinda like 2015). Other than Gridley, Mangum, Rooker, and Pilkington, I don't think we know what we are going to get out of anyone in the starting 9 or midweek / weekend rotation. Just too many guys we need to step up that have minimal experience and I think some guys are going to struggle. I do expect us to be much better in 2018 and afterwards though.

True, BUT the one thing we have an advantage with versus the past...talent. We used to need experience before we could expect much out of guys, but the way Cohen recruited the last few years, that inexperience we have is in the form of some really talented dudes.

Gonna find out a lot about how good a coach AC is right out of the gate. Should be an interesting year. My hope is that we just make the tourney and see what we can do. Would be a good start to Cannizaro's tenure, and give us something to build on. I'm not concerned with record or ranking in year 1....just find a way to make the postseason.

[Todd4State]

As stated previously by others, too many unknowns and too much turnover of both players and coaches. I think we have the talent, but it is young talent and I think the arm injuries are going to force us to put some guys out there who are still a year away (kinda like 2015). Other than Gridley, Mangum, Rooker, and Pilkington, I don't think we know what we are going to get out of anyone in the starting 9 or midweek / weekend rotation. Just too many guys we need to step up that have minimal experience and I think some guys are going to struggle. I do expect us to be much better in 2018 and afterwards though.

Our team is way more talented than the 2015 team. Remember a lot of those guys in 2015 didn't contribute in 2016- Kruger, Lowe, LA, Stovall, and Mangum in the field. We used Hudson and Houston very sparingly in 2015 until the end of the year and that was a mistake. Blake Smith and Rigby weren't on the team then either. Pilkington right now is one of the top rated sophomores in the league and he would have been the ace on our 2015 team at his true freshman level.

The key in the SEC and any other league is pitching. We have a legit ace. And we have two proven legit bullpen guys. Billingsley pitched well at the end of the year and Cyr was solid for a freshman. We just need a couple of guys to step up on the mound and while the injuries will hurt us- we should have enough pitching to make a regional.

[Choctaw Dawg]

Our team is way more talented than the 2015 team. Remember a lot of those guys in 2015 didn't contribute in 2016- Kruger, Lowe, LA, Stovall, and Mangum in the field. We used Hudson and Houston very sparingly in 2015 until the end of the year and that was a mistake. Blake Smith and Rigby weren't on the team then either. Pilkington right now is one of the top rated sophomores in the league and he would have been the ace on our 2015 team at his true freshman level.

The key in the SEC and any other league is pitching. We have a legit ace. And we have two proven legit bullpen guys. Billingsley pitched well at the end of the year and Cyr was solid for a freshman. We just need a couple of guys to step up on the mound and while the injuries will hurt us- we should have enough pitching to make a regional.

Speaking of Billingsley, i have'nt heard much about him this past fall and spring practices. I thought he and Hayden Marze both were done for but they havent made it public yet.

[The Federalist Engineer]

Researching championship squads in recent years, pitching depth only needs to go 6 deep. Some teams have managed 4 and 5 deep, especially in post season. We are talking CWS champs and runners up.

Interestingly our 2013 team is unique among the great squads for number of pitchers contributing significant innings.

Our injuries are truly only devastating as they affect the big 6 horses. Without injuries, our horses were probably going to be: Pilk, Cyr, James, Rigby, Smith, and many possible #6's

So from the expected war horses, we lost 1. From the potential #6, we lost 4. Therefore, we just need 1 major contributor from Ascraft, Self, Ford, and mcQuary to get back to where we were. There are others that we could get a big year from like Mahoney, Price, Barlow, and Barlow. That said, I wish no one was hurt

[HSVDawg]

Our team is way more talented than the 2015 team. Remember a lot of those guys in 2015 didn't contribute in 2016- Kruger, Lowe, LA, Stovall, and Mangum in the field. We used Hudson and Houston very sparingly in 2015 until the end of the year and that was a mistake. Blake Smith and Rigby weren't on the team then either. Pilkington right now is one of the top rated sophomores in the league and he would have been the ace on our 2015 team at his true freshman level.

The key in the SEC and any other league is pitching. We have a legit ace. And we have two proven legit bullpen guys. Billingsley pitched well at the end of the year and Cyr was solid for a freshman. We just need a couple of guys to step up on the mound and while the injuries will hurt us- we should have enough pitching to make a regional.

We'll certainly see. Usually, vast amounts of inexperience combined with a brand new coaching staff are not a recipe for a great season (regardless of talent level). There is always an adjustment period with a new coaching staff for both players and coaches alike, and we have to hope that is minimal. I'm certainly not judging Cannizaro by this year, unless it turns out really well. If we are something like 30-26 and miss the regionals, this board might be flat out unreadable based on some of the predictions on here. That would be a solid year in my book but it looks like the majority would want to fire Cannizaro and start having Cohen pull double duty.

[Red Sox Dawg]

To me it's two problems.

1. Kids are pitching way to much. Perfect example my old boss his son is 16 and he just had tommy John. The kid was playing travel ball year round plus rec ball stage 10-12. The arm has to take a break. I'm amazed at how many coaches and dad's think they know more then James Andrews.

2. The human arm can only throw so hard mechanically before it breaks down. Kids are bigger then ever before and everybody is in love with the radar gun. Also, most throwing programs are now incorporating weighted throws. You are not going to get the increases that Johnson got without hurting a few kids.

I agree. Don't think it's just coincidence that Johnson was here.

[bulldogcountry1]

We may be a young team overall, but we are going in with MUCH more proven everyday experience than last year. Who did we really have? Robson, Gridley, Rooker, and Sexton. Everyone else was either new or just hadn't contributed much. Hudson was anointed the Friday guy and a first rounder, but he had not accomplished what Pilk has coming in this year.

I feel much better about what we have right now than a year ago. Now, last year was special, and everything turned out pretty well. I'm just saying we need to expect to reload and have freshmen and transfers step in and be key contributors every year now.