For the "we can win 8-9 games next year" crowd

[lamont]

When I evaluate teams heading into next year, I look at experience returning plus what they have in the trenches. It has served me pretty well over the years in predicting who can do what. So lets look at us and then our opponents:

Offense- we return 7 starters and a very good QB. Downside is we lose 3 OL starters and one of the SEC's best WR's.
Defense- we basically lose 7 starters- altho Jiles will apply for a 6th year and could very well get it. Simmons started alot down the stretch so we could drop that total to 6

So lets say we return 13 starters if Jiles gets another year. We had some young guys that will grow and some jucos coming. The only juco to step right in and play well from the 1st snap during the Mullen tenure has been Vick Ballard. So there is some angst there.

Georgia- returns 18 starters and currently has the #3 signing class in the country. They have some work to do on the OL- but return every skill player. Had the #1 rated QB and #1 TE freshmen starting for them this past season who should be bigger impacts in 2017. Return 10 of 11 starters on D. Huge plus for them. We play at their place making it very unlikely we win this game

Kentucky- returns 16 starters from a team that beat us and ran over us. Lost only 1 guy out of 10 of their 2-deep on the OL. Return their QB and TB. Return 8 starters on D- must replace 2 in the Secondary. Should be a good game at our place

Alabama- we're not beating them

LSU- returns 12 starters but could lose 1 or 2 more to the draft. Talent wont be a problem for this bunch and they will be better coached on offense in 2017. Currently has the 5th rated recruiting class in the country. Unlikely to win this game- as we never beat LSU. Gonna be tough for us to compete in the trenches with them. Could be vulnerable but anything other than a loss would be a pleasant surprise.

Auburn- returns 16 starters but could lose a couple more to the NFL draft. Adding a 5-star QB transfer that is a proven college QB. Returns every skill player except their leadinga WR for 2016. His 29 catches should be very replaceable. Return probably 7 starters on D when you consider Lawson likely to leave. Play at Auburn- unlikely win.

UPig- returns 13 starters . 4 of 5 return on their OL. They signed a 4-star juco WR and a 4-star juco TE to fill in on offense. Return QB and top 2 RB's. Question marks on their DL where they lose 3 of 4. Lose 1 LB and one in the Secondary. We play at their place- which makes things tough. But if they dont fix their DL- gives us a chance

Texas A&M- returns 14 starters unless another Jr or 2 leaves besides Garrett. Have WR's to burn and return 3 starters on the OL. Have to find a new QB and thats always a big deal. Lose both DE's on D- but most everything else is fixable. Lots of Jr's on this team- will be Sr-heavy in 2017. 7th ranked recruiting clas in the country coming to provide some depth. We play at their play and have never won there. Tall task to win there as usual.

BYU wont be a pushover but of course we expect to win that. Same with La Tech and OM

I see 4 sure losses in Georgia, Bama, LSU, and Auburn. Then you are asking us to win every one of Kentucky, A&M, and UPig. Thats a tough task in 2017- especially if the jucos take 1/2 season to adjust to SEC ball. LSU in game 3, Georgia in game 4, and Auburn in game 5 make for a helluva early season schedule- as all should be top 20 teams.

[Reason2succeed]

Georgia and Auburn are sure losses?!? Go tell that to mullen's record against those teams.

[Jarius]

Georgia is not a good football team. That's not a for sure loss. Other than that, I agree with most of the rest.

[lamont]

Georgia was a very young football team this past season and return the most starters in the SEC. They will be vastly improved

[lamont]

Georgia and Auburn are sure losses?!? Go tell that to mullen's record against those teams.

Auburn will be the SEC's 2nd best football team in 2017

[Goldendawg]

UNM slaughtered Ga. I guess it's how much they improve vs. how much we can improve in '17.

[MarketingBully]

I think we go 8-4 with a bowl win to go 9-4. Arkansas has a terrible run defense and so does A&M. Remember, we only have great running backs now for Mullen to choose from so no more Holloway or Shumpert up the middle. Only four stars will be in the backfield. We will be okay.

[MarketingBully]

Auburn will be the SEC's 2nd best football team in 2017

Last I saw, we only play them once on our schedule.

[Jarius]

We don't know how much they will improve. Smart looked in over his Head for half the year and went 7-5 in the SEC east. It's not a For sure loss. It's a toss up.

[QuadrupleOption]

Won't argue too much but I think we can beat Kentucky and Arkansas next year given that we'll have a QB with a full year in the system (have to expect some improvement) and some improvement on defense.

As for Georgia, they play in a weak-ass division against pretty weak competition. It'll be tough to beat them in Athens but I'm not conceding that one yet.

I think 8 wins is in the realm of possibility for sure but we can't have a shitty kicking game and a piss-poor defense again or we'll be looking at another 4-5 win season.

[Goldendawg]

We are all fans which we know is short for "fanatics". Every program has them, but it takes a special person to bleed Maroon and White. Fans at other programs are circling their sure wins, toss ups, and losses for '17 also. After this 5 -7, you can bet KY and BYU fans circle us as a sure win. We will have to prove differently in these and every game in 2017. We should never lose an OOC game or to an East team at this point in the growth of our program.

[Jarius]

Mulen's refusal to get a kicker that we can count on is mind boggling. We would probably have been 7-5 this year with just an average kicker.

[lamont]

Smart looked in over his Head for half the year and went 7-5 in the SEC east.

Smart looked like he coached a very young team with a true freshman QB

They still won 7 games and beat Kentucky and Auburn teams that we couldnt

[Goldendawg]

With this influx of JC players, do you think we start the best 22 available or will they have to wait their turn behind players already in the system 2 to 4 years? Times were different, but Jackie's bringing in too many JC's late in his tenure was a disaster.

[Jarius]

Smart looked like he coached a very young team with a true freshman QB

They still won 7 games and beat Kentucky and Auburn teams that we couldnt

And got the breaks beat off of him by a team we beat by 35 points. We had a first year QB (not a true freshman but a former option QB who was getting his first real action this year). We also played a lot of redshirt freshmen and first time starters. We weren't as young as Mullen wanted people to believe but we were inexperienced.

Also, Smart lost to Vandy and nearly lost to Nichols State who is really bad. I'm not saying we will win, but it is at least a toss up.

[GTHOM]

Gotta love 2017 predictions in december before we even play our bowl game. We can win 8-9 games. UGA, Auburn, LSU are all winnable at home. Next week you'll be shitting on Smart and Malzahn

[TUSK]

I don't always agree with you, but I believe MSU will be significant 'dogs @UGA and @AU... (in addition to LSU & Bammer)

Also, road games @TAMU & @Arkie, I'd expect them to be 3-7 point underdogs...

However, provided you cats don't get upset by anyone, get a couple of upsets on the road, and win a bowl game, 9-4 is possible....

[Coach007]

Defense- we basically lose 7 starters-

Such a flawed statement. Go back and look at every depth chart. Look at PT. Example, Jung. In game 12, listed as #3 yet he started. Thomas... started at DT alot. Yes Adams started more, but he only had 3 more tackles than Thomas and Thomas had more TFLs.

So looking at it:

DT- Thomas split starting with a SR. That's not a loss.

NT- Simmons.. Seriously need to check it if you think he's not better than James. Simmons is the TOP SEC frshman DL. More tackles than any other.

DE- Jefferson. Yep, gotta replace him. But we just signed one of the top pass rushers from JUCO and Adams did a decent job as a Fr.

Star- Gray.. a JR started. Jung is behind him.

Viper- Spencer.. true freshman who played in 11 games.

MLB -- Harris is a Jr.

WLB-- Lewis Fr

CB... Graham ..JR...

FS.. Koman Sr... Replaced by Bryant. That's a massive upgrade.

SS- McLaurin So.

CB... Jiles a SR.. 2 of his back up started for a total of 8 games. Yet you count a 4 game starter as a loss?

[Coach007]

UNM slaughtered Ga. I guess it's how much they improve vs. how much we can improve in '17.

Man don't you know!?!? MSU doesn't improve. Mullen didn't improve MSU after taking over from Croom.... wait.. Maybe. Mullen didn't improve MSU by coaching up players like DAK. Mullen didn't take MSU to #1 by finding and developing unknown, not offered players! Wait....

Some would say to you that you are the issue with MSU. You refuse to see the writing on the wall! MULLEN is bad and you are keeping what's best away from MSU.... that's the next coach. Like the back up QB. It's not the people that want Mullen gone for recruiting a no name hack like Dak and for taking us to #1.

They are right! MSU CAN NEVER IMPROVE LIKE EVERYBODY ELSE! LMAO! You are the one with messed up backwards thinking!

[dawgs]

Experience is more than just starters. Look at who played snaps and how many they played, losing a starter when you have a talented backup with plenty of playing time stepping into the starting spot isn't a big deal. Chris jones wasn't a "starter" until his last season at state (stupid 1a/1b bullshit). Pretty sure Phil Steele does that analysis each year.

[msstate7]

In September, aTm and OM were certain losses, but you (R34) expect us to think you can predict games a year from now? One things for certain, you'll (R34) be wishing on a falling star holding your nuts on Mullen that we collapse so you'll be right, which is your express purpose in life.

[Quaoarsking]

We'll have the superior QB in 10 or 11 of our games. That's worth a lot.

[Dawgface]

I think 7-5 is more realistic, but 8-4 could happen. Every year we look at teams on paper and 3-4 seem to be sure losses. There are always 1 or 2 that don't live up to expectations. Don't always win them, but some of those we have a chance to win. Of course on the flip side, we can lose a game or 2 that we should win. You just have to let the games play out.

[MaroonFlounder]

Next year is the bad schedule year. The certain losses are at home (Bama & LSU) and the tossup games are on the road (ARK, AUB, A&M) And a trip to Georgia.
Unless the defense gets shored up, we may be staring 6-6 in the face.

[Dawgtini]

Smart looked like he coached a very young team with a true freshman QB

They still won 7 games and beat Kentucky and Auburn teams that we couldnt
I'll give you Au but Kentucky had to make a 50+ yd FG as time expired to beat us and we were nowhere near as improved as we became down the stretch. The defense let us down against a USA, BYU, UK, and AR. Granted a decent kicker could have salvaged some of those but it was the D who let us down. I think we all saw the D begin to jell down the stretch and I expect with the JC pieces we added it won't take near as long to be decent in 2017.

[Dawgsfanalongtime77]

Uga is not a sure loss. Bama is the only one every yr that you can mark it up as a loss. We have talent coming back and if the right pieces are in place. 7 to 8 wins isn't a stretch

[Jack Lambert]

Just because you return starters doesn't mean you are going to be any better. Our offense is going to be the best it's been since Mullen arrived. If they can improve on defense 8 to 9 wins is possible. However I see 6 or 7 wins.

[Reason2succeed]

With "fans" like these who needs rivals?!?

[FISHDAWG]

good thread ... good discussion. All of the pro arguments won't happen unless Sirmon made some serious progress on the DC learning curve this season and better refines his beloved 3-4 ...... for the con arguments - the Offense looked pretty good as the season progressed and the Defensive experience has another year under their belt with talent and depth from the JUCO ranks coming in, however, a lack of a decent kicking game supports your argument ... tough call here on the 8 wins. I think we will get there but I'm sure Vegas will have us somewhere around 6 wins ....... also, Denico Autry started for us and I'm pretty sure there are other JUCO's that have in the past

[Liverpooldawg]

It lives.

[basedog]

You never know in December 2016 how Sept 2017 will look yet. I suppose I should get a crystal ball for Christmas.

I think what hurt us this year a lot was lack of leadership. Hopefully that will be improved along with our recruits.

Btw when one doesn't support a Coach is it hard to be fair with predicting the future?

P.S. I remember the agenda folks folks predicting the Cheaters would skull f*** us, just shows you never know until the game is played and ended.

[msbulldog]

We now have a year under our belt in the 3-4. I think we will see tremendous improvement on defense, because the players will not have to think about their assignments as much as they did last season. You could see this improvement toward the end of the season.
Plus Sirmon said he simplified things for the Mississippi game and I think he understands that really helped the guys react better as evidenced by the defensive performance in that game.

[dawgs]

Our offense is going to be the best it's been since Mullen arrived. If they can improve on defense 8 to 9 wins is possible. However I see 6 or 7 wins.

If our offense is better than the 2014 offense, then we will easily top 6-7 Ws. That said, it's impossible to state with any confidence that the 2017 offense will be better than 2014 until we see tangible proof in real games of fitz's improvement as a passer. We are all hopeful because his passing numbers are similar to Dak's in 2013 and we saw his improvement, so we are taking for granted fitz improves similarly, but we can't assume anything.

[HSVDawg]

Georgia was a very young football team this past season and return the most starters in the SEC. They will be vastly improved

I haven't seen enough out of Smart to tell me he isn't the next Muschamp, Dooley, etc. UGA had some awful showings this year, almost losing to freaking Nicholls State and losing to Vandy. Both flat out inexcuseable for any team that has even marginal SEC talent (no matter how young).

[Jack Lambert]

If our offense is better than the 2014 offense, then we will easily top 6-7 Ws. That said, it's impossible to state with any confidence that the 2017 offense will be better than 2014 until we see tangible proof in real games of fitz's improvement as a passer. We are all hopeful because his passing numbers are similar to Dak's in 2013 and we saw his improvement, so we are taking for granted fitz improves similarly, but we can't assume anything.

You can't 100% anything in the future. I do think our offense can be very special next season. If Fitz improves his passing they will surpass the the total yards.

2014 Passing Yards 3549 with 13 games
2016 Passing Yards 2590 with 12 games

2014 Rushing yards 3030 with 13 games
2016 Rushing yards 2798 with 12 games

Our offense is going to be better next season. Especially on the running game.

[lamont]

You never know in December 2016 how Sept 2017 will look yet. I suppose I should get a crystal ball for Christmas.

I think what hurt us this year a lot was lack of leadership. Hopefully that will be improved along with our recruits.

Btw when one doesn't support a Coach is it hard to be fair with predicting the future?

P.S. I remember the agenda folks folks predicting the Cheaters would skull f*** us, just shows you never know until the game is played and ended.

OM losing their starting QB changed things immensely. Some of you need to stop acting like we beat a Chad Kelly led OM. It's great to get a win no doubt.

But I'll remind you I said we would be lucky to win 6 this season- and we didn't. We don't have an 8 win team next year vs THE SCHEDULE WE WILL PLAY

[BB30]

Nothing would surprise me next year. I could see another 5-6 win season if we sustain some injuries, the OL doesnt gel, and the defense doesn't take some big strides. I could also see us getting to 8 wins, 9 with a bowl if everything comes together and Fitz stays healthy. It is just to early to know. We don't know what the draft will do to underclassmen on other teams, injuries other teams could have before we play them etc. We better hope Fitz stays healthy and the OL plays like they did toward the end of the season. The biggest thing that worries me is our OL and finding some guys that can get pressure on the QB without having to bring a lot of extra pressure. We have to take some pressure off of our secondary. So, hopefully Sweat and some of our other DEs do a better job of understanding the scheme and applying pressure. Assuming the OL gels we should be able to score some points but we can't rely on our offense to score 48-50 points a game especially against some of the better teams we will play. I do think LSU could be a winnable game.

As of now I see us getting to 7-5 with wins over Charleston, La Tech, BYU, KY, Umass and OM. I think we take one out of LSU, UGA, TX A&M and ARK. And a for sure loss against BAMA. I do think if we can make it through this year with 7-8 wins and a bowl win to either get us to 8 or 9 we will be set up for a really good season in 18. If we implode it could be a long season having to go to UGA, AUBURN, A & M, and ARK.

[lamont]

Just because you return starters doesn't mean you are going to be any better. Our offense is going to be the best it's been since Mullen arrived. If they can improve on defense 8 to 9 wins is possible. However I see 6 or 7 wins.

Our 2014 offense had 4 returning starters on the OL
a future pro bowl QB
an NFL RB
Derunnya and Ross

2017's O doesnt quite have that

[Jack Lambert]

Our 2014 offense had 4 returning starters on the OL
a future pro bowl QB
an NFL RB
Derunnya and Ross

2017's O doesnt quite have that

We will see. Personally I think our O line will be improved.

[Jack Lambert]

OM

But I'll remind you I said we would be lucky to win 6 this season- and we didn't.

If we win Monday you will be able to come here and boast that you were right.

[lamont]

Ohhhhhh I knowwwwww....agenda, agenda, agenda

I had an agenda in 2013 when I kept telling everyone Prescott was a better QB than homegrown hero Tyler Russell (which happened)
I had an agenda in 2014 when I picked us 2nd behind Bama in the West (which happened)
I had an agenda in 2015 when I picked State to win the West (didnt happen because of our shitty OL recruiting)
I had an agenda in 2016 when I said we would struggle to win 6 games (which happened)
and now I have an agenda because I dont think there is any way we can win 8 games. Then when we go 6-6- you guys will say I'm glad we did because I care more about being right than State winning.

Lather, rinse, repeat

[lamont]

If we win Monday you will be able to come here and boast that you were right.

my predictions are always regular season- I dont count bowl games in them

We should roll Miami on Monday

[msbulldog]

C'mon Rando, I know it's mostly click bait, but don't be such a Debbie Downer. It's Christmas time, Merry Christmas my Bulldog brother.

[lamont]

Nothing would surprise me next year. I could see another 5-6 win season if we sustain some injuries, the OL doesnt gel, and the defense doesn't take some big strides. I could also see us getting to 8 wins, 9 with a bowl if everything comes together and Fitz stays healthy. It is just to early to know. We don't know what the draft will do to underclassmen on other teams, injuries other teams could have before we play them etc. We better hope Fitz stays healthy and the OL plays like they did toward the end of the season. The biggest thing that worries me is our OL and finding some guys that can get pressure on the QB without having to bring a lot of extra pressure. We have to take some pressure off of our secondary. So, hopefully Sweat and some of our other DEs do a better job of understanding the scheme and applying pressure. Assuming the OL gels we should be able to score some points but we can't rely on our offense to score 48-50 points a game especially against some of the better teams we will play. I do think LSU could be a winnable game.

As of now I see us getting to 7-5 with wins over Charleston, La Tech, BYU, KY, Umass and OM. I think we take one out of LSU, UGA, TX A&M and ARK. And a for sure loss against BAMA. I do think if we can make it through this year with 7-8 wins and a bowl win to either get us to 8 or 9 we will be set up for a really good season in 18. If we implode it could be a long season having to go to UGA, AUBURN, A & M, and ARK.

I see 6- maybe a 7th if we get lucky. But no doubt- 2018 is the year to make some noise. The schedule flips back to the toss-ups being at home.

[basedog]

OM losing their starting QB changed things immensely. Some of you need to stop acting like we beat a Chad Kelly led OM. It's great to get a win no doubt.

But I'll remind you I said we would be lucky to win 6 this season- and we didn't. We don't have an 8 win team next year vs THE SCHEDULE WE WILL PLAY

And losing Kelly is why you never really know how things work out for the future. For me, I said we would win 6 and we probably will, I also haven't predicted anything for next year. Also who cares how we beat Om or any other team, I sure as hell have never seen any Msu team beat the Cheaters as bad as we did this year.

[Coach007]

OM losing their starting QB changed things immensely. Some of you need to stop acting like we beat a Chad Kelly led OM. It's great to get a win no doubt.

But I'll remind you I said we would be lucky to win 6 this season- and we didn't. We don't have an 8 win team next year vs THE SCHEDULE WE WILL PLAY

And I will remind you of the few points and bad breaks we got that could have easily had us at 9 wins this season:

1- South Alabama Lost by 1
2- BYU loss in 2OT
3- UK.. lost by 2

That's 3 games we lost by an average of 1 point per game.

4- LSU lost by 3

That's 4 games lost by an average of 1.5 points per game. On a down year.


We have a better than 8 win team next year.

[Dawg-gone-dawgs]

Remember when Jeremy Johnson was gonna be all-world?

[BB30]

I see 6- maybe a 7th if we get lucky. But no doubt- 2018 is the year to make some noise. The schedule flips back to the toss-ups being at home.

Glad we agree on something for once. I actually thought this post was pretty down to earth and reasonable. I am not a sunshine pumper regardless of what you think. I just think our OL will let us down again and I think UGA will be much improved. I am crossing my fingers that ED O struggles at LSU and we somehow find a way to steal one of those two to get to 7. 6 is probably more realistic unless our OL and defense really step up and play much better earlier in the year.

[Dawg-gone-dawgs]

Would Chad Kelly have stopped us from scoring 55?

[Dawg-gone-dawgs]

Are you and Dawg61 the same person? OR are you both great fore-tellers of the future? He got the gift of basketball prophecy and you got football?

[BrunswickDawg]

Our 2014 offense had 4 returning starters on the OL
a future pro bowl QB
an NFL RB
Derunnya and Ross

2017's O doesnt quite have that

Our 2017 OL returns 4 starters - Rankin, Calhoun, Jenkins, Story (who earned it before he got hurt) and possibly the best young depth we've had under Mullen
We have a future pro QB who is a better runner and better threat on the deep ball (long live Checkdown Charlie).
We have a 4 star RB who just put up better numbers than a talented head case did in '13
Donald Gray just put in a season comparable to Bear's '14 - and arguably more valuable because he is a HR threat instead of a possession receiver.
We have Mixon, Dear and Green all about to break out as very good receivers.

I'd say that is setting up pretty damn close. 2017 hinges on improvement on the D side.

[TrapGame]

I'm not even gonna look for it but wasn't there a thread last summer about how good we were gonna be in 2017 b/c 2016 was the change/rebuilding year?

So, what changed?

[Jarius]

OM losing their starting QB changed things immensely. Some of you need to stop acting like we beat a Chad Kelly led OM. It's great to get a win no doubt.

But I'll remind you I said we would be lucky to win 6 this season- and we didn't. We don't have an 8 win team next year vs THE SCHEDULE WE WILL PLAY

Chad Kelly can't play defense, last time I checked. They were not winning many games with him at quarterback anyway. They managed to beat A&M on the road without him though. We beat their ass without him and would have beaten their ass if he were playing. We could have scored more on them if Mullen wanted to run it up. 55-20, on the road. All of that being said, I agree with your win total prediction for next year. I just don't think Georgia will be much better if any at all better than we will be. Probably give them an edge at home, but I don't expect the spread to be over a touchdown on game day. If I'm wrong I'll buy you a burrito at taco bell.

[Coach007]

Our 2017 OL returns 4 starters - Rankin, Calhoun, Jenkins, Story (who earned it before he got hurt) and possibly the best young depth we've had under Mullen
We have a future pro QB who is a better runner and better threat on the deep ball (long live Checkdown Charlie).
We have a 4 star RB who just put up better numbers than a talented head case did in '13
Donald Gray just put in a season comparable to Bear's '14 - and arguably more valuable because he is a HR threat instead of a possession receiver.
We have Mixon, Dear and Green all about to break out as very good receivers.

I'd say that is setting up pretty damn close. 2017 hinges on improvement on the D side.

Yep, and we have 2 WRs that has great size and speed.

[lamont]

Remember when Jeremy Johnson was gonna be all-world?

no I dont

[lamont]

I'm not even gonna look for it but wasn't there a thread last summer about how good we were gonna be in 2017 b/c 2016 was the change/rebuilding year?

So, what changed?

we banned Goat. That was his mantra

[Jack Lambert]

my predictions are always regular season- I dont count bowl games in them

We should roll Miami on Monday

I was just joking with you.

[BB30]

Our 2017 OL returns 4 starters - Rankin, Calhoun, Jenkins, Story (who earned it before he got hurt) and possibly the best young depth we've had under Mullen
We have a future pro QB who is a better runner and better threat on the deep ball (long live Checkdown Charlie).
We have a 4 star RB who just put up better numbers than a talented head case did in '13
Donald Gray just put in a season comparable to Bear's '14 - and arguably more valuable because he is a HR threat instead of a possession receiver.
We have Mixon, Dear and Green all about to break out as very good receivers.

I'd say that is setting up pretty damn close. 2017 hinges on improvement on the D side.

Good post one argument I would have is our schedule in 14 set up rather nicely. We caught a fairly young LSU team at their place with a very veteran group. We also had a lot of known commodities at WR with Ross, Lewis and Wilson(we have some good potential this year at that position but mostly unproven). Also, Aeris had a good finish to last year, but JROB did some things that we haven't had a RB do in a long time regardless of his maturity. And as you stated this season will depend on our D's improvment. I still think our OL is a question mark as they played fairly well towards the end of the season but we will need them to play well from the get go having to play LSU, at UGA and at Auburn early in the season. If that group has not gelled by then that could be a tough stretch. We should be improved this year but will definitely have to have some guys step up and Fitz will have to continue to make some big strides in the passing game.

[1bigdawg]

Because of coaching, our OL will be much improved in the last few games.**

[lamont]

Our 2017 OL returns 4 starters - Rankin, Calhoun, Jenkins, Story (who earned it before he got hurt) and possibly the best young depth we've had under Mullen
We have a future pro QB who is a better runner and better threat on the deep ball (long live Checkdown Charlie).
We have a 4 star RB who just put up better numbers than a talented head case did in '13
Donald Gray just put in a season comparable to Bear's '14 - and arguably more valuable because he is a HR threat instead of a possession receiver.
We have Mixon, Dear and Green all about to break out as very good receivers.

I'd say that is setting up pretty damn close. 2017 hinges on improvement on the D side.

our OL in 2017 in no way resembles 2014. We had 2 guys that were starting for their 4th season and 2 others with double digit starts. Calhoun, Jenkins, and story have less than 15 starts between them. This OL no way compares experience-wise to 2014.

Bear had 9 TD catches to Gray's 5. Not very comparable. Gray does have more big play ability- but Bear was a beast in the red zone

We wont be as good at WR- Bear, Ross, and Lewis were just a better group than Gray, Mixon, Dear, Myles....Malcolm Johnson was better in 2014 than Green will be most likely- but Green is going to be good

QB and RB have a chance to be really good- no doubt about it

[lamont]

Would Chad Kelly have stopped us from scoring 55?

Yes- they would have kept the ball longer and scored more points. That would have kept us from scoring 55.

[Dawg-gone-dawgs]

We would have scored the same against them. Chad Kelly had what record before he went out? It aint like he was undefeated as a starter.

[Jack Lambert]

Yes- they would have kept the ball longer and scored more points. That would have kept us from scoring 55.

Also we might have had more interceptions. It wasn't like OLe MIss receivers were hanging on to the ball. I think not having Ingram had more to do with it then Kelly.

[SDDawg]

7 or 8 wins is definitely on the table. We won't likely have a USA or Kentucky type game again next season and we'll be better. I like us at 7 wins and I think we're a good upset away from 8 wins. We're also an upset loss away from 6. I was in the 8 win camp for 2016 but I underestimated the impact of having fewer home games and having a new starter at QB. More realistic would have been 5 - 7 win range. For 2017, 6 - 8 win range is the right one and I see us getting to 7 + 1 with a bowl win.

[Dawg-gone-dawgs]

oh I thought someone with your football IQ would remember the summer 2015 hype for Jeremy Johnson being a potential Heisman candidate. Check out this prediction of power rankings pre season 2015 for almighty Auburn...btw they finished 7-6.

http://www.espn.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/113153/sec-preseason-power-rankings-4

[BB30]

We would have scored the same against them. Chad Kelly had what record before he went out? It aint like he was undefeated as a starter.

I think we still would have found a way to win but Chad Kelly would have definitely made it more interesting. I don't really like the guy but he was a pretty solid QB. Acting as if there would have been zero difference between having Kelly out there instead of Patterson isn't realistic. I also think they would have beat Vandy with Kelly out there. We played a heck of a game, and like I said still think we would win but it would have been a much closer game than it was.

[BB30]

7 or 8 wins is definitely on the table. We won't likely have a USA or Kentucky type game again next season and we'll be better. I like us at 7 wins and I think we're a good upset away from 8 wins. We're also an upset loss away from 6. I was in the 8 win camp for 2016 but I underestimated the impact of having fewer home games and having a new starter at QB. More realistic would have been 5 - 7 win range. For 2017, 6 - 8 win range is the right one and I see us getting to 7 + 1 with a bowl win.

This is where I am at as well. I think we snag 7 with a chance at 8 and or a slip up and finish with 6 then whatever we do in the bowl. 2018 should be a good year though assuming we don't lose any key pieces to the draft next year.

[Coach007]

Good post one argument I would have is our schedule in 14 set up rather nicely. We caught a fairly young LSU team at their place with a very veteran group. We also had a lot of known commodities at WR with Ross, Lewis and Wilson(we have some good potential this year at that position but mostly unproven). Also, Aeris had a good finish to last year, but JROB did some things that we haven't had a RB do in a long time regardless of his maturity. And as you stated this season will depend on our D's improvment. I still think our OL is a question mark as they played fairly well towards the end of the season but we will need them to play well from the get go having to play LSU, at UGA and at Auburn early in the season. If that group has not gelled by then that could be a tough stretch. We should be improved this year but will definitely have to have some guys step up and Fitz will have to continue to make some big strides in the passing game.


Everything depends on our Defense improving. If you would go back and look at the dropped passes this season, and I mean watch the play not count them up, you will see that Fitz's timing was off a little bit. That chemistry wasn't there like it was under Dak. Some should have been caught regardless, but it was an issue. That should not be a problem this year. If it's corrected, Fitz will be a 65% comp passer. It will open up the run too.

So everything is about the defense at this point. We return more than RP wants to admit.

[BrunswickDawg]

our OL in 2017 in no way resembles 2014. We had 2 guys that were starting for their 4th season and 2 others with double digit starts. Calhoun, Jenkins, and story have less than 15 starts between them. This OL no way compares experience-wise to 2014.

Bear had 9 TD catches to Gray's 5. Not very comparable. Gray does have more big play ability- but Bear was a beast in the red zone

We wont be as good at WR- Bear, Ross, and Lewis were just a better group than Gray, Mixon, Dear, Myles....Malcolm Johnson was better in 2014 than Green will be most likely- but Green is going to be good

QB and RB have a chance to be really good- no doubt about it

Calhoun and Jenkins will be in their 3rd season - and have had starts or significant playing time in all three. Rankin has double digit starts. I still think this upcoming OL has the potential to gel and be as good - assuming we stay committed to a run heavy O.

Ah yes, the which stat is more valuable for WR. Gray had fewer TDs, but more yards and a higher YPC avg. then Bear. Bear was a helluva weapon, but Gray is a different type weapon. Ross was virtually an unknown coming into '14 with only 115 yards and no TDs, and Lewis is comparable to what Mixon/Dear can give us. Remember it was Lewis being hurt so much in '14 that opened the door for Ross to get PT. But, you are also looking at '14 production. Go look at where those guys were in '13 and compare to what our WR corps did in '16. The results are very, similar. The one missing link is a Malcolm Johnson type, but Couch might fill that, because I think Green becomes our next Bear.

Point is again - we have an O that has the talent and experience to make a similar leap like we had from '13 to '14. It will all come down to D. And we put all our eggs in the JUCO basket to make a leap on D.

[BrunswickDawg]

Everything depends on our Defense improving. If you would go back and look at the dropped passes this season, and I mean watch the play not count them up, you will see that Fitz's timing was off a little bit. That chemistry wasn't there like it was under Dak. Some should have been caught regardless, but it was an issue. That should not be a problem this year. If it's corrected, Fitz will be a 65% comp passer. It will open up the run too.

So everything is about the defense at this point. We return more than RP wants to admit.

You will also remember we had similar timing adjustments all through 2013 bouncing back and forth between Dak, Tyler, and DWill. The offense was rarely on the same page because of that. That chemistry will build through Spring and Summer even more and allow Fitz to distribute to a lot of weapons - with everyone on the same page.

[dawgday166]

I shore wanna drink the kool-aid Coach is putting on the table but the reality is ... Dan always loses 4 SEC W games except for 1 time - in 2014 with 3 seniors on the Oline, one of whom was a 4 year starter at center, an all-world QB, and a ton of returning experience from a quality D the previous year. On top of that, no one was ready for us to be as good as we were early in the season.

So I can't quite buy into the kool-aid yet. Everyone is aware of Fitz and AW going into next year. Our Oline better be pretty darn good coming out of the gate. I just can't buy into that till I see it. Our D has to be pretty darn good coming out of the gate. Our special teams need to be darn good coming out of the gate. For all those to come together and play well every game ... I think that we will lose at least 4 games just because one of those 3 will break down and cost us in those games. Not to mention that Dan probably will screw up at least one close game with clock management.

Next year this team will still be growing. In 2018 we may have a chance to be really good. I'll very gladly admit I was wrong if I am ... I would love to be able to say I was wrong about this. However if I have the correct level of expectations going into next season I won't have to replace as many TVs ****

[Coach007]

our OL in 2017 in no way resembles 2014. We had 2 guys that were starting for their 4th season and 2 others with double digit starts. Calhoun, Jenkins, and story have less than 15 starts between them. This OL no way compares experience-wise to 2014.

Bear had 9 TD catches to Gray's 5. Not very comparable. Gray does have more big play ability- but Bear was a beast in the red zone

We wont be as good at WR- Bear, Ross, and Lewis were just a better group than Gray, Mixon, Dear, Myles....Malcolm Johnson was better in 2014 than Green will be most likely- but Green is going to be good

QB and RB have a chance to be really good- no doubt about it

1- So Simmons should have sat on the bench then? It's damned if do and damned if you don't with you. Won't play the younger better guys and they need to because they are better or we will be worse because we don't have the returning starters. LOL!!

2- Adams is gone this year.. he was not a starter until THIS YEAR. Calvin wasn't a starter until this year.

3- Clayborn, Desper, Senior. Out of those, Senior started 2 years prior to this season. Desper, Clayborn started last year.

4- You are mistaken on Calhoun, Jenkins, Story. Calhoun started in 10 and played in 22. Story started in 2 games this year (played in 8 became the starter before injury). Jenkins started in 6 and played in 21.


We wont be as good at WR- Bear, Ross, and Lewis were just a better group than Gray, Mixon, Dear, Myles....Malcolm Johnson was better in 2014 than Green will be most likely- but Green is going to be good

My favorite so far. LOL! You have zero idea on which group is better. You have no idea who will even be on the field next year in rotation. Couch, Mitchell, Todd...etc

[smootness]

Great, an entire thread about why we won't be good next year.

But yes, we're all pulling in the right direction**

[Commercecomet24]

Great, an entire thread about why we won't be good next year.

But yes, we're all pulling in the right direction**

The puppetmaster doing work lol

[TrapGame]

Great, an entire thread about why we won't be good next year.

But yes, we're all pulling in the right direction**

It's not unexpected. We should be used to it by now.

[basedog]

Two things:

The agenda will never end.

As for as Kelly playing and the we wouldn't have skull F***ed them if he played is a mute point, he didn't play, end of of story.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

[RougeDawg]

We should have had 8 wins this year when you said 6-6 was the best we could do. Kentucky didn't run al over us. We lost that game more than they won it. If Dan plays Williams all season we finish 8-4 at worst. The November defense was vastly improved over September defense.

I'll say 7-5 is the lower range of record for next year with 8-4 doable, 9-3 not out of question. Going to win the 4 OOC's, Kentucky and OM no question. A&M is next most likely W. Then UGA. Theny were an average team in a horrible division. They would've finished last in the west this year. If this game were home I'd have it as a sure W. That's 8 right there and I still don't think auburn can sustain from year to year. They are a roller coaster and always fall short when preseason hype is full blown.

And lastly, we may catch fire with an early W like 2014 and go on a similar roll. This team is much more talented than the 2014 team so who's to say we can't do the same or even better in 2017?

ETA. For those new to the board the OP was made so RP can either come back and say "see I told ya so" or explain away a 10-2 season saying he didn't expect the OL and defense to be that much improved. Remember that when reading these.

[lamont]

1- So Simmons should have sat on the bench then? It's damned if do and damned if you don't with you. Won't play the younger better guys and they need to because they are better or we will be worse because we don't have the returning starters. LOL!!

2- Adams is gone this year.. he was not a starter until THIS YEAR. Calvin wasn't a starter until this year.

3- Clayborn, Desper, Senior. Out of those, Senior started 2 years prior to this season. Desper, Clayborn started last year.

4- You are mistaken on Calhoun, Jenkins, Story. Calhoun started in 10 and played in 22. Story started in 2 games this year (played in 8 became the starter before injury). Jenkins started in 6 and played in 21.



My favorite so far. LOL! You have zero idea on which group is better. You have no idea who will even be on the field next year in rotation. Couch, Mitchell, Todd...etc

http://hailstate.com/sports/2007/6/26/944336.aspx?path=football

Calhoun started 9 and played in 9
Story with 2 starts
Jenkins started 4 games

Thats 15 combined starts. Non of those guys have started a full season. 12 games in a season- thats 15 combined starts between 3 guys. Hell, throw in Rankin and his 9 starts- still only 27 starts returning next year. (Jenkins had 3 in 2015)

Coming into 2014- Clausell, Day, and Beckwith had 37 starts between them in just 2013 alone. Add the 39 more before then and they had 76 combined starts going into 2014
Coming into 2015- we had 43 combined starts by the OL
Coming into 2016- we had 42 starts

2017 will be our lowest number of OL starts since 2011

[Dawgface]

Great, an entire thread about why we won't be good next year.

But yes, we're all pulling in the right direction**

It's what we do. We're miserable MSU fans.

[lamont]

We should have had 8 wins this year when you said 6-6 was the best we could do. Kentucky didn't run al over us. We lost that game more than they won it. If Dan plays Williams all season we finish 8-4 at worst. The November defense was vastly improved over September defense. .

We went 5-7. We werent good enough to go 6-6. Thats a fact

Kentucky scored 40 points- had 262 yards rushing and 554 yards of total offense. If thats not running over us- what exactly would be? 60 points and 700 yards of offense?????

[BulldogBear]

Smart looked like he coached a very young team with a true freshman QB

They still won 7 games and beat Kentucky and Auburn teams that we couldnt
I agree with your OP for the most part but not the logic in the one I quoted. If you say that, don't forget we won by 5 TDs over a team that UGA couldn't keep to within 4 TDs of. That logic puts us 9 TDs better than UGA and of course that isn't realistic.

[lamont]

I agree with your OP for the most part but not the logic in the one I quoted. If you say that, don't forget we won by 5 TDs over a team that UGA couldn't keep to within 4 TDs of. That logic puts us 9 TDs better than UGA and of course that isn't realistic.

Georgia played OM in the 3rd game of the season under a new coach, with a true freshman QB in his 2nd college start, in Oxford, with Chad Kelly

Georgia played Kentucky and Auburn later in the season once they had started growing up some and adjusting to their new coach. Georgia returns 18 starters and is adding more talent. They will be a 9-10 win team in 2017

[Really Clark?]

http://hailstate.com/sports/2007/6/26/944336.aspx?path=football

Calhoun started 9 and played in 9
Story with 2 starts
Jenkins started 4 games

Thats 15 combined starts. Non of those guys have started a full season. 12 games in a season- they 15 combined starts between 3 guys. Hell, throw in Rankin and his 9 starts- still only 27 starts returning next year. (Jenkins had 3 in 2015)

Coming into 2014- Clausell, Day, and Beckwith had 37 starts between them in just 2013 alone. Add the 39 more before then and they had 76 combined starts going into 2014
Coming into 2015- we had 43 combined starts by the OL
Coming into 2016- we had 42 starts

2017 will be our lowest number of OL starts since 2011

Calhoun has 10 career starts and played in 22 games. You do count the previous year and Calhoun started one game. Jenkins has 7 career starts about to be 8 and 23 games played. Story's number is right since he has only played this year, 2 and 8. Add Rankins 9 starts with 12 games played and the total is 28 starts and 64 games played before the Bowl Game.

[Coach007]

http://hailstate.com/sports/2007/6/26/944336.aspx?path=football

Calhoun started 9 and played in 9
Story with 2 starts
Jenkins started 4 games

Thats 15 combined starts. Non of those guys have started a full season. 12 games in a season- thats 15 combined starts between 3 guys. Hell, throw in Rankin and his 9 starts- still only 27 starts returning next year. (Jenkins had 3 in 2015)

Coming into 2014- Clausell, Day, and Beckwith had 37 starts between them in just 2013 alone. Add the 39 more before then and they had 76 combined starts going into 2014
Coming into 2015- we had 43 combined starts by the OL
Coming into 2016- we had 42 starts

2017 will be our lowest number of OL starts since 2011

I notice you didn't really link to the right place. Allow me to help.

http://static.hailstate.com/custompages/pdf/fb/fb_notes_msuum16.pdf

Please look at page 8.

Deion Calhoun -- -- 13/1- 9/9 -22/10
Elgton Jenkins -- -- 11/3- 10/3- 21/6

Now, if you want to throw out history, we can. None of our starters this year started last year. How's that?

The fact is this rotation gave better results for Fitz than your comparison at this point in Dak's career.

[lamont]

Calhoun has 10 career starts and played in 22 games. You do count the previous year and Calhoun started one game. Jenkins has 7 career starts about to be 8 and 23 games played. Story's number is right since he has only played this year, 2 and 8. Add Rankins 9 starts with 12 games played and the total is 28 starts and 64 games played before the Bowl Game.

add 1 for Calhoun
add 1 Rankin in the bowl game
add one for Jenkins in the bowl game

our OL in 2017 will have 30 career starts- still by far the lowest since 2011

[RougeDawg]

We went 5-7. We werent good enough to go 6-6. Thats a fact

Kentucky scored 40 points- had 262 yards rushing and 554 yards of total offense. If thats not running over us- what exactly would be? 60 points and 700 yards of offense?????

I was sitting in Lexington that night. The score wasn't an indication of the game and we should have won.

I can read and realize we went 5-7. 3 losses of which we would've have won if Dan had played the best RB in each game and Fitz against USA. This same thing happened in 2013 when Dak and JRob should've been playing. Limped to a bowl game and exploded in 2014. Injuries were the reason we gained the experience in 2013 that made 2014 happen. Unburied once again force dan to play the more talente player(s). We will once again see that payoff next year. We saw the progress from the young guys this last year on both sides of the ball and most of our talent concentrated in our younger guys. So losing guys/starters doesn't necessarily mean talent dropoff.

[munk_munk92]

I know auburn beat us pretty good but if you look at the game, the guys just looked shocked in that first half. After they settled down we actually out scored them in second half. I think if we played them at the end of the year the score would be a lot closer than it was. I could see us going anywhere from 10-2 to 7-5. It all depends on how the juco's and defense does of course. If Dan would have played the right personnel early on in the year we would have been 8-4 this year. Like a comment from above, there are no bad running backs on the team now so Dan can't mess that up for us. We need a good possession type receiver to compliment Donald Gray and offense is set. I'm not sure about the 3-4 defense. I really think we need to go back to a 4-3. Either way we need the Juco guys to step up big time. I would set Brandon Bryant on the bench until he learned how to tackle and take the right angles. To me it looked like he was scared half of the time, he kept trying to get an angle to hit from the side instead of blowing that f@cker up like Nickoe would have.

[THE Bruce Dickinson]

OM losing their starting QB changed things immensely. Some of you need to stop acting like we beat a Chad Kelly led OM. It's great to get a win no doubt.

But I'll remind you I said we would be lucky to win 6 this season- and we didn't. We don't have an 8 win team next year vs THE SCHEDULE WE WILL PLAY

You also said that LSU would win the SEC west. They went 7-4 and fired their coach. You are such a fortune teller. ***

[Schultzy]

Losing 3 OL's is a positive, so we will win more. Who knows which ones!!?!

[Bothrops]

Absolute must wins in 2017

Charleston Southern
Louisiana Tech
BYU
Kentucky
UMASS
Ole Miss

[Todd4State]

For me it basically comes down to whether or not the JUCO's come in and contribute quickly and/how quickly they come in and contribute. We should be solid on offense. But the JUCO's worry me even though some of them have some D-I experience which should help some. Sirmon needs to show me something as well. I have questions about him and his unit needs to step up.

[maroonmania]

For me it basically comes down to whether or not the JUCO's come in and contribute quickly and/how quickly they come in and contribute. We should be solid on offense. But the JUCO's worry me even though some of them have some D-I experience which should help some. Sirmon needs to show me something as well. I have questions about him and his unit needs to step up.

Mullen and crew finally figured it out enough on offense in late October this year to where we should at least get 6 wins next year even with a tougher schedule. That is, going back to the read based option offense rather than trying to force Fitz to be a more pocket based QB like Dak was his SR year. Not sure why it took our staff that long to figure out something that should have been fairly obvious. Now what we do beyond that is mostly up to Sirmon and the defense and finding a decent FG kicker. Even in the Egg Bowl where we got a second half shutout we gave up a ton of yardage. I still am no fan of the Sirmon scheme but hope that a few of the JUCOs can come in and contribute very early. Also, the '16 version of Westin Graves can't happen again in '17.

[dawgday166]

I'm not sure why it takes our staff half a year to a year to figure out a lot of things. That's why the development of players takes so long IMO. I think Dan and staff get stuck on what they would like to do as opposed to adapting to the players' skills and strengths. So now Hev (and I've been cutting him some slack), has to rework an Oline. I sure hope he can figure it out before the season starts. Then you have all the influx of players to the D too. I hope that too gets figured out before the season starts. I could see us win 8 or 9 if those 2 things happen.

[Todd4State]

Mullen and crew finally figured it out enough on offense in late October this year to where we should at least get 6 wins next year even with a tougher schedule. That is, going back to the read based option offense rather than trying to force Fitz to be a more pocket based QB like Dak was his SR year. Not sure why it took our staff that long to figure out something that should have been fairly obvious. Now what we do beyond that is mostly up to Sirmon and the defense and finding a decent FG kicker. Even in the Egg Bowl where we got a second half shutout we gave up a ton of yardage. I still am no fan of the Sirmon scheme but hope that a few of the JUCOs can come in and contribute very early. Also, the '16 version of Westin Graves can't happen again in '17.

We switched running backs and were able to be more versatile with our rushing attack and we weren't behind the sticks as much. I don't think Dan's philosophy changed. It's just that with Aeris we were in second and five as opposed to second and nine with Holloway up the middle. We threw more because we were behind the sticks more. It's a personnel issue more than a play calling issue. Without a between the tackles running back it makes it easier for the defense to key in on the QB. Now that defenses have to respect both Aeris and Nick as running threats we're a lot less predictable.

[Todd4State]

I'm not sure why it takes our staff half a year to a year to figure out a lot of things. That's why the development of players takes so long IMO. I think Dan and staff get stuck on what they would like to do as opposed to adapting to the players' skills and strengths. So now Hev (and I've been cutting him some slack), has to rework an Oline. I sure hope he can figure it out before the season starts. Then you have all the influx of players to the D too. I hope that too gets figured out before the season starts. I could see us win 8 or 9 if those 2 things happen.

I am more worried about our smurf WR unit than I am our o-line. Missing out on Guidry was huge. We need Couch and Todd to step up big time next year.