Steve Young asked how a QB like Dak can slip past 1st round...

[RougeDawg]

Given all of the game knowledge and ability to know/learn a pro offense. Was on SVP Sportscenter.

[Dawgface]

I think most were blinded because of all the Tim Tebow comparisons.

[Thick]

I think you are right about Tebow comparisons, but I think his height compared to some of the other QBs (prototypical) and maybe coming from a spread offense too. The thing that separates him is he really does have the "it" factor that is extremely rare.

[ShotgunDawg]

The Dak Prescott draft episode should be a case study used by GMs & Scouting directors in every sport to help their scouts understand where the pitfalls of evaluating are.

Here are the reasons Dak really fell in the draft.

1. When the information changed, scouts had to much pride to change their grade. The truth is that Dak really improved his passing game between his JR & SR year, but, because football players are draft eligible after their JR year, scouts already had a 4-6 round grade on Dak & didn't adjust when the information changed. In Dak's SR year, he was 56-95 for 635 yards against LSU & Alabama while playing with far less surrounding talent. Did anyone notice? A great GM once said to me, "If you show me a scout that won't change his mind, I'll show you a bad scout." Well, we just saw a bunch of bad scouts that refused to change their mind when the information changed.

2. Confirm bias & peer pressure: He looks like Tebow, runs the same college offense as Tebow, & wears the same number as Tebow..... but Tebow sucked. Scouts are human beings & there are no clear answers many times to how good players are. Due to this, the consensus of the crowd takes over & there becomes peer pressure to not like a player. It's far easier to explain to your GM why you didn't like a player that no one else liked rather than having to explain why you were wrong about liking a player that no one else liked. The DUI is just being used as an excuse by scouts to cover up the true reason they missed on him. The DUI was used as an excuse to not take a player that scouts were embarrassed to take. It's why articles say the coaching staffs liked Dak more than the scouts. To the coaching staffs, Dak was fresh, smart, athletic, etc.... to the scouts, it was so much more complicated because they had history with a player that improved significantly between his JR & SR year.

3. Scouts having a poor value system when evaluating players from a spread offense. This is the dumbest reason of all of them. Scouts want pro style QBs because it's easy. Problem is that they lack the proper checklist to evaluate players from a spread system. They have no clue what matters & what doesn't.

[ShotgunDawg]

I think you are right about Tebow comparisons, but I think his height compared to some of the other QBs (prototypical) and maybe coming from a spread offense too. The thing that separates him is he really does have the "it" factor that is extremely rare.

Correct with the "it" factor. Problem is that, due to us being MSU fans, we knew that while NFL scouts didn't know him as well. The scouts dropped the ball on truly getting to know the player they way they should have.

[Commercecomet24]

Here's another thing to think about. Apparently Dan Mullen was the only one in the country who saw the potential in Dak. Other CFB coaches missed, NFL Coaches and scouting guys missed. Now you look at the development of Fitz(not a finished product yet but getting there)and other QBs Mullen has recruited/developed, and people gonna have to start realizing Dan knows what to look for in a QB, may possibly be the best evaluator of QB talent in the country, period. IMO

[dogwalker]

Polian just said on SportsCenter that Dak wasn't an accurate passer in college. He said he was always run first. He still won't admit his perception was wrong.

[dawgday166]

They missed on Joe Montana and Tom Brady too. And neither of them had the spring break scuffle or the arrest (no conviction) for DUI. There is no one on this board that saw Dak having the kind of year he is having this year.

It's not an exact science and never will be. There are just some things that aren't measurable.

[Commercecomet24]

Polian just said on SportsCenter that Dak wasn't an accurate passer in college. He said he was always run first. He still won't admit his perception was wrong.

Then Polian is an idiot and only watched Dak play his sophomore year

[Gutter Cobreh]

I read an article that stated they overvalued the talent around Prescott at MSU, thus making him look as though he wasn't as good as he was.

Hindsight is 20/20, and some have come out and stated that this was the reason he fell. I'm not sure I buy all that, as I think most of the replies above me list the reasons why he was missed by everyone (including the Cowboys). They can't act like they had it right, as they were trying their best to trade up before selecting him.

[Commercecomet24]

I read an article that stated they overvalued the talent around Prescott at MSU, thus making him look as though he wasn't as good as he was.

Hindsight is 20/20, and some have come out and stated that this was the reason he fell. I'm not sure I buy all that, as I think most of the replies above me list the reasons why he was missed by everyone (including the Cowboys). They can't act like they had it right, as they were trying their best to trade up before selecting him.

Overvalued the talent around him lol. Even the NFL gets us confused with unm!

[CadaverDawg]

Then Polian is an idiot and only watched Dak play his sophomore year

Yep.

Dak's Senior year, you could make a great argument that he stayed in the pocket TOO much and for too long. Polian just proved that he didn't truly look at Dak's film...otherwise he could have easily seen this. My guess is this same laziness is the answer to why nobody picked him earlier.

[KB21]

The Dak Prescott draft episode should be a case study used by GMs & Scouting directors in every sport to help their scouts understand where the pitfalls of evaluating are.

Here are the reasons Dak really fell in the draft.

1. When the information changed, scouts had to much pride to change their grade. The truth is that Dak really improved his passing game between his JR & SR year, but, because football players are draft eligible after their JR year, scouts already had a 4-6 round grade on Dak & didn't adjust when the information changed. In Dak's SR year, he was 56-95 for 635 yards against LSU & Alabama while playing with far less surrounding talent. Did anyone notice? A great GM once said to me, "If you show me a scout that won't change his mind, I'll show you a bad scout." Well, we just saw a bunch of bad scouts that refused to change their mind when the information changed.

2. Confirm bias & peer pressure: He looks like Tebow, runs the same college offense as Tebow, & wears the same number as Tebow..... but Tebow sucked. Scouts are human beings & there are no clear answers many times to how good players are. Due to this, the consensus of the crowd takes over & there becomes peer pressure to not like a player. It's far easier to explain to your GM why you didn't like a player that no one else liked rather than having to explain why you were wrong about liking a player that no one else liked. The DUI is just being used as an excuse by scouts to cover up the true reason they missed on him. The DUI was used as an excuse to not take a player that scouts were embarrassed to take. It's why articles say the coaching staffs liked Dak more than the scouts. To the coaching staffs, Dak was fresh, smart, athletic, etc.... to the scouts, it was so much more complicated because they had history with a player that improved significantly between his JR & SR year.

3. Scouts having a poor value system when evaluating players from a spread offense. This is the dumbest reason of all of them. Scouts want pro style QBs because it's easy. Problem is that they lack the proper checklist to evaluate players from a spread system. They have no clue what matters & what doesn't.

The NFL is notorious for group thinking. Look at Russell Wilson and now Dak Prescott. The story on Wilson coming out was that "If he were just 5 inches taller, he'd be a 1st round pick". Anyone that saw Russell play at Wisconsin knew that he was one of the top two quarterbacks in that draft along with Andrew Luck. But, he didn't fit the prototype, so the group think on him was that he was too short.

With Dak, it was all about him playing from the spread despite the fact that Dan's offense has pro style passing concepts built within it. Even with that, If Dak had been 3 inches taller, he probably goes higher. See Cam Newton. Scouts were afraid to pass on him because of his prototypical size despite the fact that his college offense has absolutely no pro style passing concepts at all. This was a 6'6", 250 lbs guy who could run like the wind and throw the ball a mile, so he was taken #1 overall. Outside of last year, Cam hasn't lived up to his hype, IMO.

Another thing that probably effected Dak was the recent RGIII failure as well.

[dawgday166]

Yep.

Dak's Senior year, you could make a great argument that he stayed in the pocket TOO much and for too long. Polian just proved that he didn't truly look at Dak's film...otherwise he could have easily seen this. My guess is this same laziness is the answer to why nobody picked him earlier.

I kinda thought so too.

Another thing that may have detracted some and did with me ... he didn't have his better games in some big games (Bama & OM 2 years in a row; although he actually played pretty well against Bama his senior year but couldn't get ball into end zone). He's done real well this year in clutch situations. It remains to be seen how he will do in the playoffs during crunch time.

Because he was overlooked like Montana & Brady, he (like them) has benefited a lot by being drafted into a very good situation. Without injury Romo was fading out. The OL is considered the best in the league. Zeke is a helluva RB. His skill players are exceptional. And then he has his nose to the grind stone working. His effort is truly relentless.

[SaintDawg]

It seems that sometimes too much emphasis is placed on extracurricular problems that these young men have in college. Dak got jumped in a fight on Spring Break and then got a silly DUI that was a non-issue and the scouts say that was a reason for him not to be drafted high. Whatever. Granted, he should've made better decisions and not put himself in that position to begin with, but he's a kid. Shit happens. Scouts, just like talking heads in sportscasting, don't know shit from shinola about players. Their analysis is more opinion than fact. They get it wrong more than they get it right. Kind of like TV weather forecasters. (no offense to the weather guys on this board:D) One of the only jobs where you can be wrong all the time and not get fired.

[dawgday166]

It seems that sometimes too much emphasis is placed on extracurricular problems that these young men have in college. Dak got jumped in a fight on Spring Break and then got a silly DUI that was a non-issue and the scouts say that was a reason for him not to be drafted high. Whatever. Granted, he should've made better decisions and not put himself in that position to begin with, but he's a kid. Shit happens. Scouts, just like talking heads in sportscasting, don't know shit from shinola about players. Their analysis is more opinion than fact. They get it wrong more than they get it right. Kind of like TV weather forecasters. (no offense to the weather guys on this board:D) One of the only jobs where you can be wrong all the time and not get fired.

True. I might argue tho that they can't usually be wrong all the time and keep their jobs. Also, in their defense some, they've been burned a few times taking chances on highly skilled players with off-field issues (Manziel among others).

[Gutter Cobreh]

Overvalued the talent around him lol. Even the NFL gets us confused with unm!

Here is what I was referring to:

A number of evaluators provided a wide array of things they might have underestimated about Prescott. Three reasons resonated:

• Several scouts said that it wasn’t until they viewed this year’s Mississippi State draft class (which is very shallow) that they realized Prescott likely wasn’t given enough credit for elevating parts of the program. Some scouts didn’t realize there was far less NFL talent surrounding Prescott than they initially believed. And knowing that last year might have raised his profile.

• Several evaluators said Prescott’s ability to retain new information and adapt himself to an NFL system is hard to accurately measure based on a handful of workouts. Basically, a player can display this kind of thing on a whiteboard or in classroom sessions, but a team may never fully know the depth of this until a player is in its system. Mullen said the Cowboys likely had a better handle on this than most, but even Dallas couldn’t have known that Prescott would translate so well, and so quickly, to a full-fledged pro-style offense.

• Across the board, sources who saw Prescott said he had solid workouts but didn’t blow away onlookers. Interestingly, this appeared to be something that carried over after the draft. As one Cowboys source noted, Prescott had bright moments in offseason camps and the OTAs, but it wasn’t until he started playing in games that he began to take large strides. Even Mullen admitted that workouts weren’t Prescott’s strengths. The same Mullen who went as far as to tell a Dallas scout that Prescott was worthy of being the No. 1 overall pick in the draft.

Article link: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/who-was-driving-force-that-brought-dak-prescott-to-cowboys-and-why-did-it-take-so-long-013907957.html

[SaintDawg]

Also, in their defense some, they've been burned a few times taking chances on highly skilled players with off-field issues (Manziel among others).
I don't remember Manziel having any off-field issues in college, did he? None that were publicized anyway that I recall, but I may be wrong. Seems he didn't start acting like an ass until he got in the NFL. He comes from a family of bat-shit crazies.

[dawgday166]

I don't remember Manziel having any off-field issues in college, did he? None that were publicized anyway that I recall, but I may be wrong. Seems he didn't start acting like an ass until he got in the NFL. He comes from a family of bat-shit crazies.

He liked to partee'. Not sure if he got into too much trouble in college over it, probably cause of his status as Heisman winner. Dak's off field incidences can certainly lead one to believe he liked to partee' too.

I honestly believe based on the data, that Dak may have slipped one round past where he should go. When you think of spending (and being locked into spending) millions on a 1st round selection ... it's like gambling really. You're trying to work the odds in your favor.

ETA: I have a theory that the lower round QBs tend to turn out better percentage wise. It seems the 1st round money and the glamour of going in that round tends a lot of times to either cause the player to relax some, or the hoopla overwhelms them. The lower round players tend to work harder to prove themselves.

[I seen it dawg]

There are way too many scouts and GMs that have no damn clue how to truly evaluate and build rosters. It's amazing how many teams are consistently floundering and can't seem to make any true progress. While a few consistently are successful. You would think people would try to somewhat emulate success. The egos and stupidity in the scouting and front office world are astounding.

[maroonmania]

I read an article that stated they overvalued the talent around Prescott at MSU, thus making him look as though he wasn't as good as he was.

Hindsight is 20/20, and some have come out and stated that this was the reason he fell. I'm not sure I buy all that, as I think most of the replies above me list the reasons why he was missed by everyone (including the Cowboys). They can't act like they had it right, as they were trying their best to trade up before selecting him.


Could be the first time in the history of college football that the talent on an MSU team has been overvalued by someone. You know MSU, the team that is basically picked to finish last in the SEC West no matter what year or who is on the team.

[BrunswickDawg]

• Several scouts said that it wasn’t until they viewed this year’s Mississippi State draft class (which is very shallow) that they realized Prescott likely wasn’t given enough credit for elevating parts of the program. Some scouts didn’t realize there was far less NFL talent surrounding Prescott than they initially believed. And knowing that last year might have raised his profile.


What they really mean is - "MSU has no history of talent - especially at skill positions - so we don't take them seriously."

All of this reminds me of Moneyball. Read the beginning about how frustrated Beane was with how scouts approached things. The movie scene is funny, but the book really describes how they pigeonholed prospects into stereotypes, and judged them on some of the dumbest criteria. It will convince you that all of us are better scouts then the pros.

[SaintDawg]

There are way too many scouts and GMs that have no damn clue how to truly evaluate and build rosters. It's amazing how many teams are consistently floundering and can't seem to make any true progress. While a few consistently are successful. You would think people would try to somewhat emulate success. The egos and stupidity in the scouting and front office world are astounding.
e.g. Cleveland, Jacksonville

[Really Clark?]

I don't remember Manziel having any off-field issues in college, did he? None that were publicized anyway that I recall, but I may be wrong. Seems he didn't start acting like an ass until he got in the NFL. He comes from a family of bat-shit crazies.

Good grief. Did you live in a cave during that time? It all started before his first snap at A & M he was arrested for fighting, having false id, the Manning Passing Academy deplorable behavior, with him allegedly getting paid to sign autographs and suspended for a half, kicked out of a frat, etc and that just scratches the surface of his time at A& M and we don't know what else Sumlin covered up. And everybody wants to know why Sumlin and A & M regressed and falls apart in Nov since then, he botched handling Manziel when he should had and that cancer still festers today.

[SaintDawg]

Good grief. Did you live in a cave during that time? It all started before his first snap at A & M he was arrested for fighting, having false id, the Manning Passing Academy deplorable behavior, with him allegedly getting paid to sign autographs and suspended for a half, kicked out of a frat, etc and that just scratches the surface of his time at A& M and we don't know what else Sumlin covered up. And everybody wants to know why Sumlin and A & M regressed and falls apart in Nov since then, he botched handling Manziel when he should had and that cancer still festers today.

Actually, yes I did live in a cave a that point in my life. Times were hard. Words hurt.

Anyway, thank you for refreshing my memory. I forgot all about the autograph issues and the passing academy. I don't recall the fighting and fake ID, but no matter. We agree that he's phuck-up.

[Really Clark?]

Actually, yes I did live in a cave a that point in my life. Times were hard. Words hurt.

Anyway, thank you for refreshing my memory. I forgot all about the autograph issues and the passing academy. I don't recall the fighting and fake ID, but no matter. We agree that he's phuck-up.

Glad times are better for you now. He tweeted stupid stuff as well. I just don't see they ignored so much around him for so long and he still goes first round.

[dawgs]

ETA: I have a theory that the lower round QBs tend to turn out better percentage wise. It seems the 1st round money and the glamour of going in that round tends a lot of times to either cause the player to relax some, or the hoopla overwhelms them. The lower round players tend to work harder to prove themselves.

Fwiw that theory is wrong. It's not even close, just go through the current NFL starters.

(I'm doing this off the top of my head, so could miss someone)

1st rounders:
Goff
Palmer
Rivers
Alex smith
Bradford
Rodgers
Cutler
Stafford
Luck
Big Ben
Mariota
Ryan
Winston
Tannehill
Bortles
Cam
Wentz
Eli
RG3 (i think he's back from injury this week)

Non-1st rounders:
Wilson
Kaep (2nd)
Carr (2nd)
Osweiler
Dak
Brees (2nd)
Brady
Fitzpatrick
Dalton (2nd)
Taylor
Semien

That's most of not all the league, a majority of the starting QBs are former 1st rounders, and most of them aren't in danger of losing their jobs anytime soon. Even among the non-1st rounders, a lot of those guys were 2nd round picks. Don't let the Jamarcus Russell's and Ryan leaf's skew your perception.

[dawgday166]

Fwiw that theory is wrong. It's not even close, just go through the current NFL starters.

(I'm doing this off the top of my head, so could miss someone)

1st rounders:
Goff
Palmer
Rivers
Alex smith
Bradford
Rodgers
Cutler
Stafford
Luck
Big Ben
Mariota
Ryan
Winston
Tannehill
Bortles
Cam
Wentz
Eli
RG3 (i think he's back from injury this week)

Non-1st rounders:
Wilson
Kaep (2nd)
Carr (2nd)
Osweiler
Dak
Brees (2nd)
Brady
Fitzpatrick
Dalton (2nd)
Taylor
Semien

That's most of not all the league, a majority of the starting QBs are former 1st rounders, and most of them aren't in danger of losing their jobs anytime soon. Even among the non-1st rounders, a lot of those guys were 2nd round picks. Don't let the Jamarcus Russell's and Ryan leaf's skew your perception.

Ok. I stand corrected. Without doing the research my perception was skewed some. Montana, Brady, and Wilson probably had it skewed in addition to all-time greats like Unitas. But as you've proven they are the exception not the norm.

ETA: And Ryan Leaf and Jamarcus Russell played into my perception also.

[Bothrops]

Because he played qb at Mississippi State.

[parabrave]

Then Polian is an idiot and only watched Dak play his sophomore year

Polian is famous for getting Peyton. Once he left the colts Polians shine wore off quickly.

[Political Hack]

Polian is famous for getting Peyton. Once he left the colts Polians shine wore off quickly.

He made the same mistake the patriots made. They took Jacoby Brissett in the 3rd with Dak on the board despite having game film of them going head to head. "state had more talent" was likely their justification, but there's no way you can watch that game and come to a conclusion that Brissett was better than Dak. To me, it was a "systems" issue lingering from Alex Smith's brief troubles and Tebow's collapse. That, combined with the DUI issue hurt him. He was far from a sure fire starting QB 8 months ago, but all of us knew he'd work his ass off until he got where he wanted to be. He has "it" which NFL GMs absolutely suck at identifying. They're picking big softie, Paidwell, and kimchee in the 1st while guys who work their asses off like Chris Jones and Dak fell.

At minimum you'd have to suggest that Dak should've been a 1st round guy and the 3rd QB plucked. At best, he was worthy of the overall #1 selection. One day they're going to realize that height, weight, size, arm strength, 40-times, and the rest of that take a back seat to guys who are just bad ass football players. Until then, we get to continue making fun of them for passing on guys like Dak.

[dawgs]

Fwiw that theory is wrong. It's not even close, just go through the current NFL starters.

(I'm doing this off the top of my head, so could miss someone)

1st rounders:
Goff
Palmer
Rivers
Alex smith
Bradford
Rodgers
Cutler
Stafford
Luck
Big Ben
Mariota
Ryan
Winston
Tannehill
Bortles
Cam
Wentz
Eli
RG3 (i think he's back from injury this week)

Non-1st rounders:
Wilson
Kaep (2nd)
Carr (2nd)
Osweiler
Dak
Brees (2nd)
Brady
Fitzpatrick
Dalton (2nd)
Taylor
Semien

That's most of not all the league, a majority of the starting QBs are former 1st rounders, and most of them aren't in danger of losing their jobs anytime soon. Even among the non-1st rounders, a lot of those guys were 2nd round picks. Don't let the Jamarcus Russell's and Ryan leaf's skew your perception.

Just because i can be OCD about something like this, I forgot:

Flacco (1st)
Cousins (4th?)

[DancingRabbit]

Most of the mocks and evaluations I read last spring had Dak as the 5th to 8th best QB and had him going in the 2nd or 3rd round.

I think the DUI was the biggest factor in dropping him to the 4th.

In the end it's probably lucky for Dak and the Cowboys. Dak gets to play for the team of his childhood dreams, behind one of the best O-lines, with a great RB and a good receiving corps.

Jerry will get him set up with some good endorsements to tide him over until his next contract. He'll probably make $100K to $200K in playoff bonuses.

[tenureplan]

I don't remember Manziel having any off-field issues in college, did he? None that were publicized anyway that I recall, but I may be wrong. Seems he didn't start acting like an ass until he got in the NFL. He comes from a family of bat-shit crazies.

He got sent home from the manning passing camp because he showed up late and hung over.

[louisvilledawg]

Then Polian is an idiot and only watched Dak play his sophomore year

that dude needs to get his old ass of television. I hate watching him analyze anything. Get somebody younger and not as boring

[Commercecomet24]

that dude needs to get his old ass of television. I hate watching him analyze anything. Get somebody younger and not as boring

lol I'm with you on that! Talked about past your prime. That dude is the definition of it!

[IMissJack]

I think most saw him as a "system QB", that could not adapt to the pro pocket offense. But, as Dak said, our offense last year was a lot the same stuff Dallas is doing now.

[Goldendawg]

I have hated the Cowboys my whole life, now I pull for them every game. Heck, I even like Dez Bryant now. I been a Raiders fan since the late '60's and they had about a 10 year bad streak until this year. Remember when everyone loved Russell from LSU, talk about a bad 1st round QB evaluation. Glad Dak didn't go in the 1st round to Cleveland or someone. Hail Dak! Hail State! P.S., Jones needs to tear up that 4th round contract when they play in the Super Bowl against the Raiders! Wouldn't know who to pull for then.

[HSVDawg]

Polian just said on SportsCenter that Dak wasn't an accurate passer in college. He said he was always run first. He still won't admit his perception was wrong.

Rusillo and Kanell were saying the same thing on the radio the other day. They said "well its just crazy how much he's improved his accuracy because he wasn't consistently accurate in college". Basically they were trying to justify why the scouts missed so badly. The whole time I was thinking, "Did you ****ers do a lick of research before this segment?". Dak completed 66% of his passes during his senior year against SEC competition while throwing to a grand total of 1 player who MIGHT be a late round pick in the NFL. If that isn't elite accuracy, I don't know what is.

The whole thing is just hilarious. All MSU fans, most SEC fans, and a good portion of casual college football fans all knew how big of a farce it was that teams were dumb enough to draft the likes of Cody Kessler, Jacoby Brissett, and Connor Cook ahead of Dak as the draft was unfolding live. And now all these "experts" at ESPN are racking their brains trying to figure out what happened like they are cracking the Da Vinci code or something. Scouts know jack shit, and they prove it year in and year out. That's what happened.