Fitz - as a passer

[oildawg]

I was curious how Fitz's numbers were this year - as a passer. His completion percentage of 54.6% looked low, so I decided to go back and compare it with past seasons for MSU.

Short answer - his passing stats look better than I thought. And, when you compare him to Dak and Tyler, when they were sophomores - Fitz looks really solid. Of course, when Dak was a sophomore, he split time with Tyler as our QB. And, when Tyler was a sophomore, he split time with Relf. But, the stats are still informative......

As Sophomores:
Year QB Attempts Completions % Yards TD INT
2016 Fitzgerald 335 183 54.6% 2,287 21 10
2013 Prescott 267 156 58.4% 1,940 10 7
2011 Russell 129 69 53.5% 1,034 8 4

By QB, by Year:
Year QB Attempts Completions % Yards TD INT
2016 Fitzgerald 335 183 54.6% 2,287 21 10
2015 Prescott 477 316 66.2% 3,793 29 5
2014 Prescott 396 244 61.2% 3,449 27 11
2013 Prescott 267 156 58.4% 1,940 10 7
2013 Russell 109 71 65.1% 875 5 3
2012 Russell 394 231 58.6% 2,897 24 10
2011 Russell 129 69 53.5% 1,034 8 4
2011 Relf 190 114 60% 1,212 10 9
2010 Relf 220 129 58.6% 1,789 13 6

[oildawg]

I need to figure out a better way to insert a picture. It looks a lot better when the data is in Excel. I find the formatting to be difficult on this site, but maybe I just haven't figured it out yet.....



-I remade it and here is your pic. You arent doing anything wrong, yes formatting on the site for data is not good.
-Scoobadawg
https://s26.postimg.org/mswbw8dt5/qb_comparision.jpg

[preachermatt83]

Fitz will ultimately be a better college QB than Dak imo.

[chef dixon]

Dak was a decisively better passer as a RS sophomore just by watching them play + accuracy, just my opinion. Fitz is a decisively better runner, he's got a long way to go when it comes to making proper check downs and just plain accuracy.

Hope to see him get to 60% completion next year.

[maroonmania]

And Dak NEVER played with an MSU defense as bad as the MSU defense this year. If Manny had stayed this year even with the slow starting offense we would have been at least 7-5 and more likely 8-4.

[Offshore Dawg]

The good thing is Fitz has the running down pat, you can't teach fast. But he can be coached to have better touch on his passes.

[Todd4State]

Fitz had a lot of drops but I think a lot of that was because of how hard he throws the ball sometimes. He'll get better with his touch as he progresses.

[TaleofTwoDogs]

Unfortunately, your stats tells you how many passes were completed by the QBs, but doesn't tell the full story without the YAC stat. The stats don't tell you if the passes were the result of the short game, middle game or deep game. The better the receiver, the higher the YAC and the QB's total yard stat is inflated. Having seen all 3 guys in action, I would give the nod to Dak as the better sophomore QB. Fitz right now is an athlete playing QB. Dak's QB intangibles were more evident in his sophomore year. Russell was one dimensional and lacked the QB intangibles needed to go to the next level.

[GTHOM]

Dak was a decisively better passer as a RS sophomore just by watching them play + accuracy, just my opinion. Fitz is a decisively better runner, he's got a long way to go when it comes to making proper check downs and just plain accuracy.

Hope to see him get to 60% completion next year.

Fitz got better as the year went on. Hes gonna be better than Dak if he keeps on improving. Dak had 5 TOs in a game his soph year vs USCe.

[blacklistedbully]

I was curious how Fitz's numbers were this year - as a passer. His completion percentage of 54.6% looked low, so I decided to go back and compare it with past seasons for MSU.

Short answer - his passing stats look better than I thought. And, when you compare him to Dak and Tyler, when they were sophomores - Fitz looks really solid. Of course, when Dak was a sophomore, he split time with Tyler as our QB. And, when Tyler was a sophomore, he split time with Relf. But, the stats are still informative......

As Sophomores:
Year QB Attempts Completions % Yards TD INT
2016 Fitzgerald 335 183 54.6% 2,287 21 10
2013 Prescott 267 156 58.4% 1,940 10 7
2011 Russell 129 69 53.5% 1,034 8 4

By QB, by Year:
Year QB Attempts Completions % Yards TD INT
2016 Fitzgerald 335 183 54.6% 2,287 21 10
2015 Prescott 477 316 66.2% 3,793 29 5
2014 Prescott 396 244 61.2% 3,449 27 11
2013 Prescott 267 156 58.4% 1,940 10 7
2013 Russell 109 71 65.1% 875 5 3
2012 Russell 394 231 58.6% 2,897 24 10
2011 Russell 129 69 53.5% 1,034 8 4
2011 Relf 190 114 60% 1,212 10 9
2010 Relf 220 129 58.6% 1,789 13 6

It sure seems to me like Fitz has had a much larger number of dropped passes as well.

[gravedigger]

Fitz will ultimately be a better college QB than Dak imo.

Stats, or overall?

[preachermatt83]

Stats, or overall?

Statistically. He will never have the "it" factor the same way Dak did HOWEVER, he is starting to show some signs of it.

[CJDAWG85]

Y'all forget that Fitz only played QB his Sr. year of HS and he ran a running offense. Fitz has an absolute cannon for arm. He needs to work on his progressions and his touch, but that will come. Drops were a problem this year, but the chemistry will come.

[MetEdDawg]

Y'all forget that Fitz only played QB his Sr. year of HS and he ran a running offense. Fitz has an absolute cannon for arm. He needs to work on his progressions and his touch, but that will come. Drops were a problem this year, but the chemistry will come.

This. Dude was 5-9 for like 200 yards passing or something like that in some of his high school games. Athletically you can see why Mullen liked him. Fast, quick, big arm. But he's having to learn how to play QB still because he ran triple option in high school. He's got a huge ceiling in terms of passing potential because he's still learning how to read defenses and dissect them. And with no split in 1st team reps this offseason I think we see exponential growth from him.

[bluelightstar]

Fitz got better as the year went on. Hes gonna be better than Dak if he keeps on improving. Dak had 5 TOs in a game his soph year vs USCe.

Wasn't that game the day his mom passed?

[BB30]

Wasn't that game the day his mom passed?

Yes it was also against a pretty salty USC defense. Fitz finished the year on a strong note. As Mullen said now the work begins for him. Dak was a relentless worker year round and the leadership he has is a God Given talent just as arm strength or speed etc is. I think it can be somewhat developed and learned but not to the extent that Dak had. The good news is Fitz doesn't have to be Dak he just needs to focus on working hard and becoming the best version of Fitz that he can. Hopefully being around Dak so long he has learned what it takes to get exponentially better every year. This is a kid that threw less than 80 passes his entire high school career. Dak didn't really develop touch until his last year and still struggled at times with it. I think Fitz towards the end of the season was already showing drastic improvement in that area. There were several passes in the bama game that he laid out nicely in tight coverage down the sideline that were just dropped. He also had several throws early in the season that cost us a couple of scores. 2 that I can remember against LSU and 1 or 2 against BYU. He also missed on one or two in the Ole Miss game this year. Reps, Reps, and more Reps can and will fix that and just getting comfortable from the first snap of the game on. Early in the season he was pressing early in games. The good thing is I truly believe even though Dan has some glaring weaknesses as a coach he is quite possibly the best developer of QBs in college football and that is why I am in favor of him sticking around a while. We will never have the ability to sign loads of 4 and 5 star kids so we have to have an equalizer at QB that improves our deficiencies in other areas of our offense.

[maroonmania]

Yes it was also against a pretty salty USC defense. Fitz finished the year on a strong note. As Mullen said now the work begins for him. Dak was a relentless worker year round and the leadership he has is a God Given talent just as arm strength or speed etc is. I think it can be somewhat developed and learned but not to the extent that Dak had. The good news is Fitz doesn't have to be Dak he just needs to focus on working hard and becoming the best version of Fitz that he can. Hopefully being around Dak so long he has learned what it takes to get exponentially better every year. This is a kid that threw less than 80 passes his entire high school career. Dak didn't really develop touch until his last year and still struggled at times with it. I think Fitz towards the end of the season was already showing drastic improvement in that area. There were several passes in the bama game that he laid out nicely in tight coverage down the sideline that were just dropped. He also had several throws early in the season that cost us a couple of scores. 2 that I can remember against LSU and 1 or 2 against BYU. He also missed on one or two in the Ole Miss game this year. Reps, Reps, and more Reps can and will fix that and just getting comfortable from the first snap of the game on. Early in the season he was pressing early in games. The good thing is I truly believe even though Dan has some glaring weaknesses as a coach he is quite possibly the best developer of QBs in college football and that is why I am in favor of him sticking around a while. We will never have the ability to sign loads of 4 and 5 star kids so we have to have an equalizer at QB that improves our deficiencies in other areas of our offense.

The difference with Dak is that he not only raised the level of his own play, but also the play of his teammates around him due to his leadership. Not sure that we will get that from Fitz.

[Cooterpoot]

Best not to compare Fitz to Dak. One is the best rookie NFL QB since Roethlisberger and one of the best ever. Fitz has 2 years of QB play in his life. Dak was special.
Fitz is more like Alex Smith. But he's got a really high ceiling.

[Sacrifice]

Before Fitz leaves he'll break every passing record we have. Dak didn't have his first 300 yard passing game until the 8th game of his JR year. Fitz has 3 under his belt already with a 400 yarder included.

[BrunswickDawg]

The difference with Dak is that he not only raised the level of his own play, but also the play of his teammates around him due to his leadership. Not sure that we will get that from Fitz.

You don't think that Fitz' willingness to take hit and get the hard yards - when it was the only way we had any O - didn't raise the level of play? Did you watch any games and see the way our WR and OL did a complete 180 in the way they attacked blocking? Our guys started murdering people downfield to open lanes for Fitz. Fitz may not be the rah-rah leader Dak was, but this BS about him not being a leader needs to stop. His leadership is all his HS coaches raved about. His leadership is different than Dak, and that's perfectly fine. It may have taken him some time to earn the respect and get through the undermining that DWill did, but the "will Fitz learn to lead" is just wrong.

[War Machine Dawg]

A more informative statistical comparison would be Fitz to the national CFG Completion Percentage and/or the national completion percentage for first year starters along with the same for Yards Per Completion. That would give you a much better basis for comparing how he's really doing in terms of a passer. Comparing Fitz to the disaster that is our QB history pre-Mullen is essentially pointless. Even comparing him to anyone pre-Dak is a waste of time and comparing him to Dak is a waste, too.

Fitz is just a different animal than we're used to seeing at QB. He's basically Cam Newton if Cam hadn't come up playing QB his whole life and playing in the spread. He's got that level of physical tools. But Fitz is so much more raw than almost every QB coming to college. He's the Bear Wilson of QBs, if you will. Fitz will only get better with more reps and more coaching from Mullen & Johnson.

And my personal opinion - 54% is probably a low number, but I think it's a good number for him. Especially when you consider all the drops and us wasting half the year or more asking him to run the Dak offense instead of reverting to the Chris Relf-fense/Relf Coast Offense like we did against Bama & Northern Miss. I also think his passing numbers were hurt by not having A-Train as the feature back all season. The play action was much more effective after Aeris took over at RB.

[blacklistedbully]

A more informative statistical comparison would be Fitz to the national CFG Completion Percentage and/or the national completion percentage for first year starters along with the same for Yards Per Completion. That would give you a much better basis for comparing how he's really doing in terms of a passer. Comparing Fitz to the disaster that is our QB history pre-Mullen is essentially pointless. Even comparing him to anyone pre-Dak is a waste of time and comparing him to Dak is a waste, too.

Fitz is just a different animal than we're used to seeing at QB. He's basically Cam Newton if Cam hadn't come up playing QB his whole life and playing in the spread. He's got that level of physical tools. But Fitz is so much more raw than almost every QB coming to college. He's the Bear Wilson of QBs, if you will. Fitz will only get better with more reps and more coaching from Mullen & Johnson.

And my personal opinion - 54% is probably a low number, but I think it's a good number for him. Especially when you consider all the drops and us wasting half the year or more asking him to run the Dak offense instead of reverting to the Chris Relf-fense/Relf Coast Offense like we did against Bama & Northern Miss. I also think his passing numbers were hurt by not having A-Train as the feature back all season. The play action was much more effective after Aeris took over at RB.

Great post, WMD. I hadn't considered all that.

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to War Machine Dawg again.

[dawgday166]

Statistically. He will never have the "it" factor the same way Dak did HOWEVER, he is starting to show some signs of it.

And how do you know this for sure?

[dawgday166]

You don't think that Fitz' willingness to take hit and get the hard yards - when it was the only way we had any O - didn't raise the level of play? Did you watch any games and see the way our WR and OL did a complete 180 in the way they attacked blocking? Our guys started murdering people downfield to open lanes for Fitz. Fitz may not be the rah-rah leader Dak was, but this BS about him not being a leader needs to stop. His leadership is all his HS coaches raved about. His leadership is different than Dak, and that's perfectly fine. It may have taken him some time to earn the respect and get through the undermining that DWill did, but the "will Fitz learn to lead" is just wrong.

I don't agree too often with you but on this point I think you may me onto something here.

[yjnkdawg]

Fitz had limited passing opportunties in a run type offense. I think he threw a total of 85 passes during high school. So he should improve the more experience he gets in the passing aspect. Some quarterbacks throw an easy to catch ball and some don't. I read a while back that Kelly, for example, threw an easy catchable ball and Fitz didn't so receivers have to adjust to that type of passer.

[Pollodawg]

By '18, he will be a monster.

[BB30]

A more informative statistical comparison would be Fitz to the national CFG Completion Percentage and/or the national completion percentage for first year starters along with the same for Yards Per Completion. That would give you a much better basis for comparing how he's really doing in terms of a passer. Comparing Fitz to the disaster that is our QB history pre-Mullen is essentially pointless. Even comparing him to anyone pre-Dak is a waste of time and comparing him to Dak is a waste, too.

Fitz is just a different animal than we're used to seeing at QB. He's basically Cam Newton if Cam hadn't come up playing QB his whole life and playing in the spread. He's got that level of physical tools. But Fitz is so much more raw than almost every QB coming to college. He's the Bear Wilson of QBs, if you will. Fitz will only get better with more reps and more coaching from Mullen & Johnson.

And my personal opinion - 54% is probably a low number, but I think it's a good number for him. Especially when you consider all the drops and us wasting half the year or more asking him to run the Dak offense instead of reverting to the Chris Relf-fense/Relf Coast Offense like we did against Bama & Northern Miss. I also think his passing numbers were hurt by not having A-Train as the feature back all season. The play action was much more effective after Aeris took over at RB.

Agree with most but I don't think he is quite as gifted as Cam was. Fitz is a big guy but he isn't Cam big. I do think he can have similar success if we continue to develop some semblance of an O-line. Regardless lets let Fitz be Fitz he is going to be a blast to watch over the next couple of years and if he continues to make strides in the passing game and we continue to put some talented receivers around him he will end up having an excellent career here.

[War Machine Dawg]

Agree with most but I don't think he is quite as gifted as Cam was. Fitz is a big guy but he isn't Cam big. I do think he can have similar success if we continue to develop some semblance of an O-line. Regardless lets let Fitz be Fitz he is going to be a blast to watch over the next couple of years and if he continues to make strides in the passing game and we continue to put some talented receivers around him he will end up having an excellent career here.

Cam is listed at 6'6" and 245. Fitz is listed at 6'5" and 230. So he's not all that much smaller than Cam and will put on more good weight with work in the weightroom over the course of his career. There's no reason Fitz can't carry another 5-10 pounds without losing speed or mobility. And we've all seen the way the ball jumps out of his hand. I have no hesitation in saying Fitz has elite physical tools. They're just raw. How much work he puts in will determine how good he can be, but he's got everything you could want in terms of raw physical ability and tools.