Potential for life threatening severe weather today.

[starkvegasdawg]

Be alert everybody. This afternoon and tonight may be pretty rough weather wise. Starting this afternoon and lasting until well into the overnight hours there stands a chance for some significant severe weather including strong tornadoes. I spoke with a meteorologist from one of the area networks this morning and he thinks this could be primarily a tornado event over a straight line wind and hail event...at least initially.


From the Storm Prediction Center:
IN THE WAKE OF ANY EARLY ACTIVITY...AND PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT...
MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SMALL CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 800 MB. THIS
SHOULD ENSURE THAT WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT IS FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE NUMBER OF STORMS INITIALLY AND BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY...AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG WITH HODOGRAPHS
FAVORING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS HAIL AND WIND. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND VERY STRONG
SHEAR ALL SUGGEST A COUPLE TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG.


http://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image4.gif

[DownwardDawg]

Pulling a uhaul trailer from Port Gibson to Covington county at 5:30 this evening. Should I cancel or will I be ahead of it?

[starkvegasdawg]

Pulling a uhaul trailer from Port Gibson to Covington county at 5:30 this evening. Should I cancel or will I be ahead of it?

Looking at the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model, it has storms and super cells entering MS from LA around Vicksburg starting between 3:00-4:00 this afternoon and then things just going to hell across the state until about midnight. I hate to tell you to cancel your plans because the storms may fire well north of that and you never see a drop of rain. But you could also end up driving right into a scene from Twister, too. What is your drop dead time for deciding what to do?

[DownwardDawg]

Looking at the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model, it has storms and super cells entering MS from LA around Vicksburg starting between 3:00-4:00 this afternoon and then things just going to hell across the state until about midnight. I hate to tell you to cancel your plans because the storms may fire well north of that and you never see a drop of rain. But you could also end up driving right into a scene from Twister, too. What is your drop dead time for deciding what to do?

I'm gonna go ahead and cancel. It's not worth it. I can do it another day this week and that's the smart/safe move.
Thank you guys for bringing this to the board. I love these threads. I use them as you can see!!!!
Thanks Stark!

[Dawgface]

Looking at the hourly weather, from sunset to midnight is the danger zone for my area. Nice looking outside right now.....the calm before the storm.

[starkvegasdawg]

I'm gonna go ahead and cancel. It's not worth it. I can do it another day this week and that's the smart/safe move.
Thank you guys for bringing this to the board. I love these threads. I use them as you can see!!!!
Thanks Stark!

You're welcome. Postponing is the smartest move. Obviously, I can't pin point when or where they will move in, but when they do I expect them to severe in a hurry.

[starkvegasdawg]

Looking at the hourly weather, from sunset to midnight is the danger zone for my area. Nice looking outside right now.....the calm before the storm.

Once you notice the winds shift to the south or SW and the temp shooting up the warm front has passed your area and you are now in the danger zone.

[THE Bruce Dickinson]

Are you chasing tonight? If so where would you be setting up ?

[DownwardDawg]

You're welcome. Postponing is the smartest move. Obviously, I can't pin point when or where they will move in, but when they do I expect them to severe in a hurry.

I understand not being able to pinpoint. I struggle getting my 24 year old daughter to understand! She has that mentality of folks living in hurricane areas. I always warn her and make her re-arrange her day and then nothing happens. She doesn't see that it is actually happening to other folks and we just dodged a bullet. It's frustrating!!!!

[SaintDawg]

You weather guys on this board are worth your weight in gold.

[DawgRockur]

How do you see this storm affecting Columbus?

[DownwardDawg]

Will this be a big rain event like last night?

[starkvegasdawg]

Are you chasing tonight? If so where would you be setting up ?

I'll be out chasing. Haven't narrowed down location yet. Money is somewhere on a line between Vicksburg and Tupelo.

[starkvegasdawg]

Will this be a big rain event like last night?
1-2" rain possible with this.

[starkvegasdawg]

How do you see this storm affecting Columbus?

Columbus needs to stay weather aware without a doubt.

[Commercecomet24]

How's it looking for Jones County? Appreciate all the info you guys bring!

[TimberBeast]

How do things look for the coast? Same as the rest of the state for today? We had a ton of wind and rain last night but I don't think we had any storms.

[EngDawg]

Timing for Starkville?

[starkvegasdawg]

How do things look for the coast? Same as the rest of the state for today? We had a ton of wind and rain last night but I don't think we had any storms.

Coast could/should escape the worst of the worst tornado and hail wise but could see some wind damage. Here is the main tornado threat area per the SPC which will update at 10:30.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif?1480434567174

[starkvegasdawg]

Timing for Starkville?

Tricky question. To play it safe I am saying anytime from 3:00pm on. It could be later than that but I am not expecting earlier. It needs to be noted that the majority of this event will be after dark as it could extend to around midnight.

[starkvegasdawg]

How's it looking for Jones County? Appreciate all the info you guys bring!

Jones county needs to be keeping up with things closely today.

[KB21]

Tricky question. To play it safe I am saying anytime from 3:00pm on. It could be later than that but I am not expecting earlier. It needs to be noted that the majority of this event will be after dark as it could extend to around midnight.

Dang! My clinic is in Houston, so I may see if they will just reschedule my afternoon and head on back to Tupelo before this hits.

[starkvegasdawg]

Dang! My clinic is in Houston, so I may see if they will just reschedule my afternoon and head on back to Tupelo before this hits.

James Spann is showing the greatest tornado potential in northeast MS from 4:00pm - midnight. Some of the models are showing supercells forming in LA and moving across the rover around Vicksburg and NE towards Tupelo so there may be a bit of disagreement on when the storms fire, when they go severe, and then produce tornadoes. What I am confident of is that this will happen. It's just a matter of when and where. All the ingredients look to be coming into place.

[starkvegasdawg]

Here is the latest info from the HRRR as far as timing goes.

3:00pm - storms starting to develop but not yet severe
http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2016112914/007/refcmp.us_se.png

6:00pm - storms really start firing have gone severe
http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2016112914/010/refcmp.us_se.png

7:00pm - multiple severe storms now ongoing
http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2016112914/011/refcmp.us_se.png

1:00am - storms still ongoing, some of which will be severe but trying to form a line
http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2016112914/017/refcmp.us_se.png

[DLGDawg]

KB...what's your clinic

Dang! My clinic is in Houston, so I may see if they will just reschedule my afternoon and head on back to Tupelo before this hits.

[Commercecomet24]

Jones county needs to be keeping up with things closely today.

Thanks! Always appreciate it!

[starkvegasdawg]

Very latest from the SPC:

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS A 40-50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE...WITH
EFFECTIVE SRH RANGING FROM 300-400 M2/S2...AND MLCAPE REMAINING
GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE SHOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK
WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT FORM IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONE OR TWO OF
THESE TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BEST TORNADIC POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN LA INTO MOST OF MS AND NORTHWESTERN AL/SOUTHERN TN.
DEPENDING ON OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS TODAY...A SMALL MODERATE
RISK AREA MAY BE CONSIDERED WITH THE 20Z UPDATE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MS.

[KB21]

KB...what's your clinic

Chickasaw County Medical Clinic. I'm the doc here.

[TheRef]

Very latest from the SPC:

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS A 40-50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE...WITH
EFFECTIVE SRH RANGING FROM 300-400 M2/S2...AND MLCAPE REMAINING
GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE SHOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK
WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT FORM IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONE OR TWO OF
THESE TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BEST TORNADIC POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN LA INTO MOST OF MS AND NORTHWESTERN AL/SOUTHERN TN.
DEPENDING ON OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS TODAY...A SMALL MODERATE
RISK AREA MAY BE CONSIDERED WITH THE 20Z UPDATE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MS.

1000-1500 CAPE is significant for this time of year. You have to remember that as long as the upper level support for this, it could be an interesting evening for NWS Jackson, Memphis, NOLA, and Mobils

[Westdawg]

What might this weather be like in the north delta area - particularly Clarksdale???

[starkvegasdawg]

What might this weather be like in the north delta area - particularly Clarksdale???

The further north and west you go the less the threat tornado wise.

[starkvegasdawg]

It's started. Severe storm with rotation NW of Natchez. Time to buckle up.

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

It's started. Severe storm with rotation NW of Natchez. Time to buckle up.

Yep....I'm in the Vicksburg area for the day and the temp has risen about 3 or 4 degrees in the last couple of hours. It's mostly sunny and humid.....not good.

[Beaver]

Yeah, this is a more volatile set up than yesterday. Much more energy for storms to work with. Should get interesting when the low-level shear kicks up tonight... Kinda surprised Jackson hasn't done an 18z sounding.

[Roy Munson]

It's started. Severe storm with rotation NW of Natchez. Time to buckle up.
A

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

Tornado watch just issued for most of central MS.

http://blogs.msnewsnow.com/.a/6a01b8d086c2b0970c01bb0958c55a970d-500wi

[TheRef]

I'll be setting up a home base when possible. SVD is out in the field chasing.

[BulldogtheMS]

Jones county needs to be keeping up with things closely today.

Not what I needed to hear... Guess I'll plan to be called out to work tonight
Thanks for the updates and the heads up Stark

[TheRef]

FWIW, I would watch out if you're in a line from Silver City to Winona. Could be interesting soon involving that cell

[Bodawg]

Weather Channel has issued a torcon value of 7 for north central MS. Haven't seen that in awhile.

[Beaver]

Lena and Walnut Grove folks are in the path of a tornado warned storm. No ground conformation yet but it looks nasty on radar.

[DawgRockur]

Keep us updated guys. Thank yall

[BB30]

Looks to be a couple of confirmed tornadoes or rotation in the Philly area and up around Winona. Someone with more experience might be able to weigh in.

[THE Bruce Dickinson]

Can someone post the live storm chaser link?

[WinningIsRelentless]

Confirmed one on the ground north Madison county.

[RocketDawg]

There's a pretty nasty looking warned storm west of Starkville near Eudora. Has a really good hook on the radar ... didn't see the velocity data.

[TaleofTwoDogs]

Need help from the forestry guys: I've been waiting to replant 40 acres with pine in Winston county but the drought has put us on hold. If the county gets 1 or 2 inches of rain will that be enough to get the trees down?
Thanks for your help.

[turkish]

I would wait 'til Jan/Feb on your trees. I'm not a forester, but I do employ one.

[starkvegasdawg]

Gotten close on a couple storms but no cigar yet. Waiting on a couple more storms. New watch until 5:00am so not over yet.

[EngDawg]

Confirmed large and dangerous tornado 8 miles E of suligent AL