Multiple day severe weather event to unfold

[starkvegasdawg]

Monday through Monday night and Tuesday night look to be pretty volatile weather wise. The graphic below is for Monday and shows a large part of MS in an enhanced risk for severe weather...right now for damaging straight line winds. However, a tornado threat will exist and may be higher than current thinking. Should know more by later this morning. Main time frame Monday is afternoon into the overnight hours ending by midnight. Round two is Tuesday night with the greatest threat area east MS and west AL. This event will see all modes of severe weather possible and may have a higher tornado threat. There's still some questions to be answered. Regardless, the drought looks to end with a bang and our fall severe weather season looks to kick off tomorrow. When I get to work in the morning I'll post a lot more graphics that I just don't feel like trying to do over my phone.

http://i.imgur.com/Vhvoo37.jpg

[msbulldog]

Thanks Vegas, looks like I'm going to be right in the middle of it. Raining here now.

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest information continues to show the threat for severe weather today and tomorrow night. At this time, the tornado threat is not overly promising due to lack of instability. However, if this system can pull in enough instability and moisture than that tune could change as one thing this storm has more than enough of is shear.

Here is the composite future radar at 3:00pm per the HRRR. As you can see if shows a broken squall line just entering NW MS. If this holds, the area of greatest concern would be in LA where the cells are more discrete in nature. Any discrete cells will hold your highest tornado threat. The model depicting this as more of a broken line with embedded severe storms is concerning because that would lead to a potential tornado threat with any of those. As of right now, the SPC has left the entire area under just a 5% tornado threat for today, but left room to upgrade if conditions warranted.

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2016112811/010/refcmp.us_se.png

Here is the radar composite for 6:00pm. It is now trying to form a more solid line to the north, but leaves it broken over central MS. This would have the northern extent transitioning to more a straight line wind event while leaving central MS under more of a tornado threat.

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2016112811/013/refcmp.us_se.png

Here we are now at 9:00pm. The line has now pushed out of north MS ending any threat for that part of the state. The line is also really trying to form one solid squall line and transition to almost exclusively a straight line wind event, but there are still enough breaks and bowing segments to produce some tornadoes.

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2016112811/016/refcmp.us_se.png


Keep in mind, this is all based off of one model and things could be dramatically different. As additional information comes in I will post my thoughts and I am sure those with more knowledge on the subject will chime in, too. I am still watching the system for Tuesday night for more of a tornado threat for MS with the highest chance being in east central and SE MS. But let's get through today's system first. Plenty of time to watch the one for tomorrow night. I'm kicking myself now for selling my vacation back last week and now I have not time to chase as I normally would. Going to be reduced to just heading out in and near Starkville tonight and tomorrow, but I do plan on being out both nights if conditions warrant.

[DownwardDawg]

Bump to page one. I gotta pick up some furniture on a trailer near Port Gibson tomorrow evening. Keeping an eye on this.

[starkvegasdawg]

Bump to page one. I gotta pick up some furniture on a trailer near Port Gibson tomorrow evening. Keeping an eye on this.

It is looking like tomorrow evening you should be ok. As of right now the Tuesday event is looking more nocturnal in nature, but they should be fine tuning that this afternoon.

[Bodawg]

Warm front has brought very strong southerly fetch here in south ms. Current temps, upper 70's. Very evident wind shear. Lower level cloud deck coming from south. Mid level clouds coming from southwest. Could be an interesting evening.

[starkvegasdawg]

Things about to get going with this system. A tornado watch is up in LA and you can just see the squall line taking shape west of Memphis and trailing back into LA.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0501_radar.gif

[EngDawg]

Bump, line of severe storms passing through Starkville right now