Latest Drought Outlook

[starkvegasdawg]

Was released today instead of tomorrow. Good news is the exceptional drought area has not expanded. Bad news is the area in extreme drought went from 43% of the state to 72%. There are some strong hints the pattern is changing to one that will bring more rain to the area. We can hope.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20161122/20161122_ms_none.png

[Dolphus Raymond]

Thanks for the update starkvegasdawg. The NWS seems to be hinting at some really good rain early next week, particularly in the Delta area. What is your take on amounts/duration?

[starkvegasdawg]

Thanks for the update starkvegasdawg. The NWS seems to be hinting at some really good rain early next week, particularly in the Delta area. What is your take on amounts/duration?

I'm seeing the same. Right now if I were to drop my odds at the casino I would not be surprised at 1-3" totals being possible over the Delta - especially the NW portion and decreasing to around .75"-1" as you get to the eastern part of the state. Hoping that amount ends up going up for the rest of the state but it will all depend on the storm track which last I saw had it lifting up to the NE instead of going more due east. One thing to possibly watch with this system is a small chance of severe weather. Again, that will depend on the storm track. Right now I am not too optimistic at severe weather in MS except possibly the extreme NW part of the state but that does not worry me too much. I would put any severe threat more from a east TX up to IN line, but James Spann was certainly hinting at severe weather possible for MS/AL so I will defer to him as he has more weather knowledge in one of his dumps than I do in my head.

[Dolphus Raymond]

Thanks

[HSVDawg]

What about the chances of the Egg Bowl drought extending to 3 years?

[Dolphus Raymond]

Bump for a weather update. Lot of rain for the south Delta next week?

[TheRef]

Bump for a weather update. Lot of rain for the south Delta next week?

Good chance starting Monday of a front pushing through. With this front you can expect some thunderstorms. Of course, we'll be able to tell more as far as rainfall amounts by about Saturday.

[starkvegasdawg]

Depending on the model you look at they're ranging anywhere from just under an inch to around 3". But still too early to make any definite prognostications. As Ref said, by Monday the long range models will have been dealing with it for a while and the mid range models will be looking at it, too.

[Spiderman]

Was released today instead of tomorrow. Good news is the exceptional drought area has not expanded. Bad news is the area in extreme drought went from 43% of the state to 72%. There are some strong hints the pattern is changing to one that will bring more rain to the area. We can hope.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20161122/20161122_ms_none.png

Too late for me now. I don't care if it doesn't rain until May now

[TUSK]

if this front pushes as little as 1/2" rain in on me, I'll be planting food plots the next day and slayin' through January....

[Liverpooldawg]

I'm in the worst area. I drove by my grand parent's old lake today on the way to a Thanksgiving gathering. I hadn't been out that way since the drought started. I've never seen that lake that low ever and I'm in my 50s. It was incredible.

[RougeDawg]

Any reasoning that these last 3-6 fronts have filled out when they reach a certain point? Other day Baton Rouge was getting pounded. Looked at radar and saw a thick healthy line of rain draped across the stage of MS. 4 hours later there was barely a sprinkle in places if you were lucky. Both my house in Nola and hunting land in Mississippi didn't get one drop. This has been happening since late July. What's the reason? Thank you for the info.

[TheRef]

Any reasoning that these last 3-6 fronts have filled out when they reach a certain point? Other day Baton Rouge was getting pounded. Looked at radar and saw a thick healthy line of rain draped across the stage of MS. 4 hours later there was barely a sprinkle in places if you were lucky. Both my house in Nola and hunting land in Mississippi didn't get one drop. This has been happening since late July. What's the reason? Thank you for the info.

Mostly due to the lack of moisture for the line to "refuel" per say. A useful thing to look at are pwats, or Precipitable Water. That's basically the amount of moisture at the level necessary to create rain. It's a good indicator to the amount of available moisture in the area. With that in mind, the closer to the ocean you are, the higher the PWATs. The longer/more severe the drought, the less PWATs available. That's why they say drought besets drought.

[starkvegasdawg]

From reading the NWS forecast discussions, if this system was coming through late April instead of late November...

[DownwardDawg]

From reading the NWS forecast discussions, if this system was coming through late April instead of late November...

Yeah???????

[TheRef]

Yeah???????

Well let's put it this way. Day 4 Outlook from SPC has a highlighted area. Usually means it's going to be a significant system.

https://i.gyazo.com/8f1594392df8bad8af1618f8bc99f3c0.png

[starkvegasdawg]

Well let's put it this way. Day 4 Outlook from SPC has a highlighted area. Usually means it's going to be a significant system.

https://i.gyazo.com/8f1594392df8bad8af1618f8bc99f3c0.png

And I'm out of vacation days and can't chase.

[TheRef]

And I'm out of vacation days and can't chase.

The only problem I see is a lower-level dry layer possibly keeping us from having a YUGE day.

[DownwardDawg]

Well let's put it this way. Day 4 Outlook from SPC has a highlighted area. Usually means it's going to be a significant system.

https://i.gyazo.com/8f1594392df8bad8af1618f8bc99f3c0.png

Ok gotcha!

[Dolphus Raymond]

I don't like severe weather but the prospect of some heavy rain in the south Delta is welcome news.